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	<title type="text">Alec Luhn | Vox</title>
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	<updated>2017-02-08T15:47:12+00:00</updated>

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				<name>Alec Luhn</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The &#8220;Darth Vader&#8221; of Russia: meet Igor Sechin, Putin&#8217;s right-hand man]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/world/2017/2/8/14539800/igor-sechin-putin-trump-sanctions-oil-rosneft-tillerson-secretary-of-state-kremlin" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/world/2017/2/8/14539800/igor-sechin-putin-trump-sanctions-oil-rosneft-tillerson-secretary-of-state-kremlin</id>
			<updated>2017-02-08T10:47:12-05:00</updated>
			<published>2017-02-08T10:47:09-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Late on the night of November 14, Igor Sechin, the CEO of the Russian state oil giant Rosneft, reportedly summoned Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev to a meeting at the company&#8217;s headquarters in a czarist-era building across the river from the Kremlin. When he arrived, Ulyukayev was handed a large amount of cash in front [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="YEREVAN, ARMENIA - DECEMBER 2: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) listens to Rosneft&#039;s President Igor Sechin during Russian-Armenian talks December 2, 2013 in Yerevan, Armenia. Putin is in a one-day state visit to Armenia. (Photo by Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images) | Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7947405/GettyImages_453073661.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	YEREVAN, ARMENIA - DECEMBER 2: Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) listens to Rosneft's President Igor Sechin during Russian-Armenian talks December 2, 2013 in Yerevan, Armenia. Putin is in a one-day state visit to Armenia. (Photo by Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images) | Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Late on the night of November 14, Igor Sechin, the CEO of the Russian state oil giant Rosneft, reportedly <a href="http://news.trust.org/item/20170201070520-01xql/?source=hpbreaking">summoned</a> Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev to a meeting at the company&rsquo;s headquarters in a czarist-era building across the river from the Kremlin.</p>

<p>When he arrived, Ulyukayev was handed a large amount of cash in front of Sechin &mdash; and then arrested on the spot and charged with soliciting a $2 million bribe. Ulyukayev, who insists that he is innocent, was fired by Russian President Vladimir Putin the day after his arrest. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p>The unusual sting operation that brought down Ulyukayev, the first sitting government minister to be detained by police since the Stalin era, highlighted the power of Sechin, a shadowy figure who is widely seen as second only to Putin in influence. Russian newspapers <a href="https://www.novayagazeta.ru/articles/2016/11/15/70540-zaderzhan-glava-minekonomrazvitiya-aleksey-ulyukaev-glavnoe">reported</a> that Rosneft&#8217;s head of security &mdash; who remains a high-ranking FSB security service official &mdash; organized the sting, presumably on Sechin&rsquo;s orders.</p>

<p>Sechin has been called Putin&#8217;s &ldquo;Darth Vader&rdquo; and the &ldquo;scariest man on earth&rdquo; by Russian media, and a leaked US embassy cable described him as the <a href="https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW2759_a.html">&ldquo;grey cardinal of the Kremlin.&rdquo;</a> Now that his friend and business partner Rex Tillerson has become President Donald Trump&#8217;s secretary of state, Sechin is poised to play an even more important role: as a point man for efforts to improve Russia&rsquo;s chilly relationship with the US and get Washington to lift its sanctions on the Kremlin.</p>

<p>Sechin&rsquo;s power &mdash; and influence &mdash; could soon grow even bigger: Some have speculated that the oil magnate could be considered for prime minister if Putin is elected to another term in 2018.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Putin will count on Sechin as an agent of influence on Tillerson, as a lobbyist&rdquo; for better relations between Moscow and Russia, said Stanislav Belkovsky, an analyst formerly connected to the Kremlin.</p>

<p>Belkovsky added that the Russian strongman believes Tillerson, given his oil background, is likely to have a warm view of Sechin, which &ldquo;can be used&rdquo; to Moscow&rsquo;s advantage on sanctions on other issues.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>Power in Russia depends on access to Putin. That’s great for Sechin, one of the president’s oldest and most trusted allies.<br></p></blockquote></figure>
<p>Washington&rsquo;s relationship with Moscow is at a post&ndash;Cold War nadir, with the US intelligence community accusing Russia of directly interfering in the presidential election to help Trump. Trump has promised to change that, and has spent months shocking allies and officials around the world by praising Putin as a strong and popular leader and rejecting criticism of his dismal human rights record. The latest effort came Sunday, when Trump told Fox News host Bill O&rsquo;Reilly that he respects the Russian president and dismissed O&rsquo;Reilly&rsquo;s objection that &ldquo;Putin&rsquo;s a killer.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Words are one thing, actions another. Trump has hinted that he&rsquo;d be willing to lift some of the sanctions the US slapped on Russia after it invaded Eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea. Vice President Mike Pence <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mike-pence-russia-ukraine-watching-troubled/story?id=45272806">suggested</a> on Sunday that the administration could eliminate some sanctions if Russia helps in the fight with ISIS, and Trump has also <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-arms-deal-idUSKBN14Z0YE">floated</a> the idea of removing some of the measures if Putin agreed to a nuclear arms reduction deal. &nbsp;</p>

<p>And that&rsquo;s where Sechin comes in. He stands to gain financially if the measures are lifted because Washington had frozen some of his assets and barred him from visiting the US. That pales in comparison with the boost he would get if Rosneft were able to resuscitate a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-exxon-rosneft-idUSBRE83H0UE20120418">deal</a> to invest up to $500 billion in developing energy reserves that he&rsquo;d signed with Tillerson while the diplomat was running Exxon Mobil. (Tillerson <a href="http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2016/12/14/13940866/trump-rex-tillerson-sanctions-russia">opposed</a> the sanctions when they were introduced, and Exxon <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/13/investing/exxonmobil-tillerson-russia-sanctions-putin/">estimated</a> it has lost as much as $1 billion because of them.)&nbsp;Restarting the project would be an enormous win for Rosneft &mdash; and for Sechin&rsquo;s continued influence in the Kremlin.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Meet the man with the $60 million house and the $100 million yacht</h2>
<p>In the already murky world of Kremlin politics, Sechin is an especially enigmatic figure. He tries to keep it that way, suing two independent Russian newspapers last year for reports about a $60 million <a href="https://themoscowtimes.com/news/russias-second-most-powerful-man-building-60-million-home-near-moscow-54659">mansion</a> he&#8217;s allegedly building outside Moscow and a $100 million <a href="https://meduza.io/en/news/2016/10/10/rosneft-head-wins-lawsuit-against-novaya-gazeta-for-princess-olga-article">yacht</a> his wife allegedly owns. (Rosneft also <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f4e11890-c073-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354">sued</a> the independent newspaper RBC for reporting that Sechin was trying to limit BP&#8217;s control on the company board.)</p>

<p>The entire Russian political and financial systems revolve around access to Putin, which is great for Sechin, who is one of the president&rsquo;s oldest and most trusted allies.</p>

<p>A 56-year-old with graying hair, a hooked nose, a slightly nasal voice, and a near-perpetual frown, he worked his way out of obscurity and poverty in Leningrad to reach the heights of politics and business. Rumored to be a former spy, he is well-connected with the security services and speaks French, Portuguese, and Spanish. He makes as much as <a href="http://rbth.com/business/2015/05/14/rosneft_head_igor_sechin_reveals_116_million_salary_after_putin_prom_46009.html">$11.6 million a year</a>, but even his critics admit he works nearly nonstop, powered by his favorite drink, orange juice.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>Analysts compare Sechin, CEO of Russia’s biggest energy company, to carnivores and crocodiles</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>Sechin&rsquo;s main hobby is hunting big game &mdash; an important social pastime among politicians and businessmen in Russia &mdash; and he <a href="http://www.forbes.ru/forbeslife/dosug/289035-nastoyashchaya-dich-na-kogo-okhotitsya-igor-sechin">reportedly</a> likes to give Rosneft partners sausages made out of animals he&rsquo;s killed. When journalist Andrei Kolesnikov, known for his access to Putin, finally convinced Sechin after seven years to write a column for his Russian Pioneer magazine, the Rosneft head waxed lyrical about his love for jazz music: &ldquo;The most important thing in jazz, as in real life, is improvisation.&rdquo;</p>

<p>A request for an interview with Sechin was not answered, and a Rosneft spokesperson declined to comment for this story.</p>

<p>Analyst Gleb Pavlovsky, who formerly served as an adviser to Putin&#8217;s administration and knew Sechin personally, said the Rosneft head could be useful as an intermediary between Moscow and Washington and will seek that role so he can &ldquo;transform himself into a more legitimate figure in the West.&rdquo; Sechin has already overseen one smaller rapprochement, having forged closer relations between Russia and Latin America in the late 2000s. Sechin met frequently with Hugo Ch&aacute;vez and even <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPZsLGubiC4">gave a speech in Spanish</a> at a commemoration ceremony after the Venezuelan president&rsquo;s death, calling him a &ldquo;brilliant politician, one of the founders of the idea of a multipolar world.&rdquo;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Putin crony with close ties to America’s new secretary of state</h2>
<p>Sechin&rsquo;s relationship with Tillerson dates back more than a decade. Tillerson first arrived in Russia in 1997 and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-12-11/tillerson-s-rise-boosted-by-savvy-negotiating-in-putin-s-russia">oversaw</a> the company&#8217;s <a href="https://sakhalin1.rosneft.com/about/Rosneft_today/Operational_structure/Development_and_Production/Sakhalin1/">project</a> with Rosneft and Indian and Japanese partners to reach hydrocarbons deep below the icy seas off Sakhalin Island, which was <a href="http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/print/volume-58/issue-11/news/general-interest/duma-deliberations-delay-progress-on-sakhalin-development.html">delayed</a> for years by low oil prices and legal holdups. Thanks in no small part to his partnership with Sechin, Tillerson has withstood pressure from the state gas company Gazprom, which forced foreign investors out of another Sakhalin venture, and the consortium is now Exxon&rsquo;s flagship project in Russia, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118286774019148501">pumping</a> more than 250,000 barrels of oil a day. Exxon and Rosneft have gone on to sign other major deals.</p>

<p>Sechin got to know Tillerson after he became chair of Rosneft in 2004, reportedly coming to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-rex-tillersons-negotiating-style-cozy-with-power-unbending-and-theatrical-1483996831">admire</a> the Texan&rsquo;s tough but transparent dealings with partners. In 2015, he even <a href="http://kommersant.ru/doc/2744634">spoke out</a> in support of Exxon in its ongoing legal battle to regain some of the $500 million in taxes it said it had overpaid Russia.</p>

<p>After Exxon and Rosneft signed agreements to explore Siberia and the Arctic in 2011, Tillerson and Sechin were said to have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-expected-to-pick-exxonmobil-chief-executive-rex-tillerson-as-his-secretary-of-state/2016/12/10/6e018e90-bd9e-11e6-94ac-3d324840106c_story.html?utm_term=.f9565946a6cc">celebrated with caviar</a> in the luxury Manhattan restaurant Per Se. The next year, Putin, Sechin, and Tillerson were <a href="https://twitter.com/yashar/status/807657210012717058">filmed</a> toasting another deal with champagne.</p>

<p>Putin awarded the Russian order of friendship to Tillerson in 2013, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-rex-tillersons-negotiating-style-cozy-with-power-unbending-and-theatrical-1483996831">reportedly</a> at Sechin&#8217;s request. The two seem to have become not just partners but friends: Sechin <a href="http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2014/06/27/den-sobranij-akcionerov-onlajn">said</a> in 2014 that before he was sanctioned, he had been planning &ldquo;to ride the roads in the United States on motorcycles with Tillerson.&rdquo;</p>

<p>In a St. Petersburg Economic Forum appearance last June that was interpreted as a sign of support for Rosneft, Tillerson called Sechin &ldquo;my friend&rdquo;: &ldquo;As to the sanctions question, I&rsquo;ll use the same approach that my friend Mr. Sechin took. That&rsquo;s a question for government.&rdquo;</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>Putin, Sechin and Tillerson have been filmed toasting an energy deal with champagne</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>But Sechin is not one to let friendship get in the way if a conflict arises. His reputation is that of a ruthless insider who holds only three things to be sacred: his loyalty to Putin, Rosneft&#8217;s ravenous expansion, and his no-holds-barred struggle against political and business rivals. Many of these are liberals like Ulyukayev or Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who oppose his vision of an economy dominated by huge state corporations.<strong> </strong>Sechin won his most recent clash with the two men, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-06/russia-said-to-approve-rosneft-buying-bashneft-for-5-3-billion">buying</a> the oil company Bashneft in a deal Medvedev had <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-09/putin-said-to-ban-ally-sechin-s-rosneft-from-bashneft-auction">opposed</a>. (Ulyukayev was accused in November of seeking a bribe to back this deal, which he also was initially against.)</p>

<p>&ldquo;Business leaders who have dealt with Sechin say he has one particular idiosyncrasy: he immediately manages to get criminal proceedings started against any potential partner as a backup, as well as to facilitate the negotiating process,&rdquo; wrote journalist Mikhail Zygar in his seminal book <em>All the Kremlin&#8217;s Men.</em></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A rapid rise, fueled by ruthlessness and hard work</h2>
<p>Sechin was born into a blue-collar family in Leningrad in 1960. Although his parents worked at a metallurgical factory, Sechin studied at a school that specialized in French and managed to get into a university in Leningrad, where he studied Portuguese and Spanish. According to classmate Larisa Volodimerova, the skinny young man wasn&#8217;t exceptional but studied hard to escape the poverty he lived in with his twin sister and divorced mother.</p>

<p>&ldquo;He was interested in money and a career for money from the beginning to exit this nightmare,&rdquo; she said, remembering there wasn&#8217;t much food when she came over to their apartment.</p>

<p>After graduating with a higher degree in economics in 1984, Sechin served as a Soviet military translator in the conflicts in Angola and Mozambique. (Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB119820263246543973">said</a> Sechin told him he had worked for Soviet intelligence in Africa.) According to another classmate, Nikolai Konyushkov, Sechin always liked military discipline and was a platoon commander when the students underwent combat training outside the city. He recalled how his friend once daringly climbed from a neighbor&#8217;s apartment into a third-story window to let Konyushkov into his apartment when he forgot his keys after one such training.</p>

<p>&ldquo;He could have served in more or less peaceful places, in the capital, but Igor Ivanovich chose hot spots,&rdquo; Konyushkov said. &ldquo;He didn&#8217;t fear military service; he liked it.&rdquo;</p>

<p>After his return, Sechin went to work in Leningrad city hall, where he met Putin. By 1991, the future president was chair of the city&rsquo;s public relations committee, and Sechin became his head secretary, taking down visitors&#8217; contacts in a black leather binder. Acquaintances often remark on Sechin&#8217;s absolute loyalty to Putin: Pavlovsky called him the leader&rsquo;s &ldquo;angry guard dog.&rdquo;<strong> </strong>A recently rediscovered 1996 <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyI-HxeA4eA">video interview</a> shows Sechin faithfully following Putin through the airport metal detector, duffel bag and briefcase in hand.</p>

<p>When then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin appointed Putin acting president in 1999, Sechin became the deputy head of his administration, waiting for Putin at the elevator every morning and at the airport after every foreign trip.</p>

<p>His control over Putin&#8217;s schedule as well as what papers made it to the president&#8217;s desk increased his clout &mdash; and his willingness to mercilessly go after his rivals.</p>

<p>Sechin&rsquo;s first major target was Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who was discussing the sale of a blocking stake in his Yukos oil company to Chevron Texaco or Exxon. According to Belkovsky, Sechin presented Putin with a report the analyst had written warning that Khodorkovsky planned to seize power, and he&rsquo;s believed to have overseen the subsequent legal attacks on the oligarch. Khodorkovsky was soon imprisoned on charges of tax fraud, and Yukos was broken up. Sechin&#8217;s prize was chairmanship of Rosneft, which became the largest oil company in Russia after absorbing the main components of Yukos.</p>

<p>In subsequent years, Sechin would outmaneuver or outlast many other rivals, often with similarly underhanded tactics. Russian media <a href="http://kommersant.ru/doc/2531581">linked</a> him to the sudden <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21709065-government-sells-bashneft-rosneft-and-books-profit-russia-privatisation-can-mean">arrest</a> of Vladimir Yevtushenkov &mdash; who had reportedly rejected Sechin&rsquo;s offer to buy his Bashneft oil company &mdash; in connection with an investigation into its privatization more than a decade earlier. Bashneft was seized by the state and sold to Rosneft two years later.</p>

<p>Bob Dudley, who was CEO of the British-Russian joint oil venture TNK-BP, <a href="https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW2137_a.html">claimed</a> in a leaked US Embassy cable that Sechin was in &ldquo;direct cooperation&rdquo; with his partners turned enemies in their attempts to force him out. Dudley later fled Russia &mdash; after reportedly <a href="https://qz.com/168263/that-time-bps-chief-executive-fled-russia-after-poison-was-found-in-his-blood/">surviving a poisoning attempt</a> &mdash; and a few years later, Rosneft ended up <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/mar/21/rosneft-takes-over-tnk-bp">taking over</a> TNK-BP.</p>

<p>Sechin also served as deputy prime minister from 2008 to 2012, and he is secretary of Putin&rsquo;s energy development commission.</p>

<p>Yet even his critics have to admit Sechin fulfilled his task of turning a marginal oil company into the country&#8217;s state champion, combining a legendary work ethic with the zeal of a Jesuit priest. Zygar described him as a &ldquo;cyborg&rdquo; who can go days without sleeping and terrorizes underlings with his deceptively soft voice. According to Pavlovsky, he was the hardest-working official in the Kremlin and &ldquo;read all the papers,&rdquo; once catching a loophole no one else had spotted in a tax accord with the popular offshore business destination of Cyprus.</p>

<p>At the same time, Rosneft has taken on <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-rosneft-debt-idUSKCN0WN11V">huge debts</a> in its aggressive <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-19/rosneft-could-accelerate-global-expansion-in-2017-says-woodmac">expansion</a> and is having to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ce866fd8-ec39-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8">invest far more</a> to keep production up in its declining west Siberian fields. According to Vladimir Milov, an opposition activist and former deputy energy minister who worked with Sechin, he is not a good businessman or manager but rather an &ldquo;overseer in a labor camp, someone who can intimidate.&rdquo; He said Sechin is driven by an all-consuming desire to increase his oil empire. (Rosneft has of late made large investments abroad in countries like <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/rosneft-deal-to-halve-debt-exposure-ruias-to-now-focus-on-steel-ports-business/articleshow/54891802.cms">India</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-20/rosneft-to-pay-500-million-to-boost-stake-in-venezuela-venture">Venezuela</a>.)</p>

<p>&ldquo;It&#8217;s not a comprehensive strategy, but rather the spontaneous action of a carnivore, of a crocodile,&rdquo; Milov said. &ldquo;He sees something and attacks, but there&#8217;s no strategy &hellip; and the problem of falling production in west Siberia isn&#8217;t being solved.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Nonetheless, Sechin&#8217;s position at the helm of Rosneft and influence over the Russian energy industry seems for now beyond reproach after he delivered much-needed cash to the country&#8217;s coffers through an <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/glencore-qatar-fund-buy-russia-s-rosneft-stake-for-11-billion">$11 billion Rosneft privatization deal</a> late last year, the largest foreign investment since the 2014 sanctions. (The full identities of the buyers <a href="http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1582OH">remain unknown</a>, raising questions of where the money is actually coming from.) Milov claimed that Ulyukayev&#8217;s downfall came because he had insisted the Rosneft deal be done with greater government oversight than Sechin wanted.</p>

<p>Now Tillerson&rsquo;s appointment could allow Sechin to extend his clout once again. &ldquo;At the very least, his influence on foreign policy will be increased, because he has a history of communicating with American oilmen&rdquo; like Tillerson and secretary of energy pick Rick Perry, said Evgeny Minchenko, a Kremlin-connected analyst known for his &ldquo;Politburo 2.0&rdquo; reports on the ruling elite.</p>

<p>Some analysts have even speculated Sechin could become prime minister if Putin runs and wins another term, a virtual certainty given the strongman&rsquo;s popularity and lack of any real rivals.</p>

<p>Still, Minchenko warned that although the Rosneft head &ldquo;has increased his influence and done so pretty dramatically,&rdquo; there are &ldquo;no one-way processes&rdquo; in the Kremlin.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Even if someone gets stronger,&rdquo; he warned, &ldquo;he can be thrown off soon.&rdquo;</p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Alec Luhn</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Trump’s victory may not be the big win for Putin everyone thinks it is]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/world/2016/11/17/13577456/trump-victory-putin-russia-moscow-kremlin" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/world/2016/11/17/13577456/trump-victory-putin-russia-moscow-kremlin</id>
			<updated>2016-11-17T10:39:03-05:00</updated>
			<published>2016-11-17T10:38:59-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Russia" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[MOSCOW &#8212; The Russian parliament burst into applause when it was announced that Donald Trump had won the US presidency, and nationalist faction leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky bought 132 bottles of champagne to toast the victory. &#8220;Russia is ready and wants a restoration of full-fledged relations with the United States,&#8221; Russian President Vladimir Putin said on [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="Russian President Vladimir Putin takes a glass of champagne during the reception for new foreign ambassadors at Grand Kremlin Palace on November 9, 2016, in Moscow, Russia. | Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7482381/GettyImages_621888708.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Russian President Vladimir Putin takes a glass of champagne during the reception for new foreign ambassadors at Grand Kremlin Palace on November 9, 2016, in Moscow, Russia. | Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>MOSCOW &mdash; The Russian parliament <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-wins-us-election-russia-putin-result-a7406866.html">burst into applause</a> when it was announced that Donald Trump had won the US presidency, and nationalist faction leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky bought 132 bottles of champagne to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhI2Cd-ykOw">toast</a> the victory.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Russia is ready and wants a restoration of full-fledged relations with the United States,&rdquo; Russian President Vladimir Putin<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/us-election-the-world-reacts/index.html?adkey=bn"> said</a> on Russian state television. Putin was one of the<a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/russian-president-vladimir-putin-congratulates-president-elect-donald/story?id=43411848"> first world leaders</a> to congratulate Trump. On Monday, he spoke with Trump by phone about &ldquo;constructive cooperation on the widest spectrum of issues,&rdquo; according to<a href="http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53255"> the Kremlin</a>. Russian officials have gushed about the possibility of Trump canceling US sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea and reducing America&rsquo;s support for the Syrian rebels looking to oust Bashar al-Assad, one of Moscow&rsquo;s closest allies.</p>

<p>But the Kremlin might have opened those bottles of champagne a little too soon.</p>

<p>Trump has complimented Putin&#8217;s leadership style, talked about pulling out of NATO, and advanced an isolationist foreign policy that the Russian leader would love to exploit as he tries to restore Moscow&rsquo;s former position on the world stage.</p>

<p>But Trump has also talked of policies that would conflict with Kremlin strategic interests, like expanding America&rsquo;s missile defense programs, growing the size of the US Army and Navy, and potentially adding Russia hawks to his Cabinet. Also, Trump&#8217;s plans for increased oil and gas drilling could cut into Russia&#8217;s main export; already the ruble has dropped on the back of oil prices.</p>

<p>The upshot: The new US president will, at best, likely be a mixed blessing for Moscow.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Was Trump really the Kremlin’s favored candidate?</h2>
<p>There is a widespread belief in Washington that Putin actively tried to help Trump win the election. The Obama administration has<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-government-officially-accuses-russia-of-hacking-campaign-to-influence-elections/2016/10/07/4e0b9654-8cbf-11e6-875e-2c1bfe943b66_story.html"> accused</a> Russian hackers of attempting to shape the outcome of the vote by stealing and then leaking potentially embarrassing internal emails from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the Hillary Clinton campaign.</p>

<p>The latest US allegation came Tuesday, when Adm. Michael Rogers, the head of the National Security Agency,<a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/nsa-chief-wikileaks-democrats-emails-were-conscious-effort"> said</a> that the WikiLeaks release of the DNC and Clinton campaign emails was a &#8220;conscious effort by a nation-state to attempt to achieve a specific effect.&rdquo; Rogers had previously<a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-officials-reiterate-russian-responsibility-for-recent-hacks-1476981467"> acknowledged</a> in October that the Russians were behind the hacks.</p>

<p>But some Russian experts have raised doubt that Moscow actually wanted Trump to win. Russian propagandists on state television and elsewhere might have actually preferred a hawkish Hillary Clinton administration as a punching bag to distract from domestic problems like corruption and declining household incomes, as the Obama administration has been.</p>

<p>And since Trump has no political track record,<a href="http://www.vox.com/world/2016/11/1/13481594/donald-trump-explained-foreign-policy"> tends to look at issues as businesslike transactions</a>, and has expressed more interest in domestic than foreign affairs, his actual policy toward Russia remains relatively unknown.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Amid all the euphoria of the idiots from the Russian political class, those in the Russian regime who are able to think are very perplexed now,&rdquo; said Andrei Kolesnikov, a domestic politics expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center. &ldquo;They believed in a Clinton victory and now don&#8217;t know what to do with Trump. It breaks all molds.&rdquo;</p>

<p>&ldquo;We talk about predictability,&rdquo; Andrei Klimov, a member of the Russian senate&#8217;s foreign affairs committee, told me. &ldquo;Trump doesn&#8217;t have experience nor a history of actions. No one knows how we [in the Russian parliament] will act. We will wait for real action.&rdquo;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Russia’s wish list would be tough to accommodate</h2>
<p>The main early indicator of Trump&#8217;s stance on Russia has been his complimentary statements about Putin during the campaign. The two seem to like each other: As Vox&rsquo;s Yochi Dreazen<a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/9/7/12843184/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-comments-town-hall"> notes</a>, Trump has<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/18/politics/donald-trump-praises-defends-vladimir-putin/"> praised</a> Putin as a &#8220;leader&#8221; and <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/28/politics/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-quotes/">someone</a> &#8220;highly respected within his own country and beyond.&#8221; And in a December 2015 interview with<a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/sep/08/donald-trump/did-vladimir-putin-call-trump-brilliant/"> ABC News</a>, Putin described Trump as &#8220;a very colorful person&rdquo; and &ldquo;talented.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Warm words apart, though, Trump will likely find Putin to be a demanding interlocutor.</p>

<p>As part of a law canceling an agreement with the United States to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium last month, Russia issued<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-suspends-plutonium-deal-with-us/2016/10/03/c502e628-8980-11e6-8cdc-4fbb1973b506_story.html"> its wish list</a> for the two countries&#8217; relationship. To renew the agreement, Washington would have to reduce US military presence in NATO countries that joined after September 1, 2000, end sanctions over the Ukraine crisis and compensate Russia for all damages the sanctions caused, and cancel the Magnitsky Act. That was a US law passed in 2012 designed to punish Russian officials responsible for the death of Russian lawyer and whistleblower Sergei Magnitsky, as well as other human rights violations.</p>

<p>Add to that Russia&rsquo;s hope for a US stand-down in Syria, and it&#8217;s an extreme starting point for talks &mdash; and any immediate concession by Trump could be taken as proof that Russia did in fact influence the election in his favor.</p>

<p>&ldquo;I think there&#8217;s a very strong sense of entitlement on the part of the Kremlin,&rdquo; Maxim Trudolyubov, editor at large for Vedomosti newspaper and a senior fellow at the Kennan Institute, told me. &ldquo;They sort of feel that right now they&#8217;re in a great negotiating position, but I&#8217;m struggling to find what they can offer.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Even if Trump were, with all respects to the movie of a similar name, a &ldquo;Siberian candidate&rdquo; &mdash; that is, a Kremlin puppet &mdash; the president literally couldn&rsquo;t accede to the latter Russian demand. The Magnitsky Act can only be canceled by Congress, where it has enjoyed strong bilateral support.</p>

<p>Indeed, it&rsquo;s not even entirely clear that Trump&rsquo;s stance on NATO would be in line with the Kremlin&rsquo;s strategic interests. To be sure, Trump sound bites calling NATO obsolete and suggesting that the US won&#8217;t defend members that don&#8217;t &ldquo;<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/22/us/politics/donald-trump-foreign-policy-interview.html?_r=0">reasonably reimburse</a>&rdquo; it for protecting them have raised Russian hopes that the alliance could soon be hamstrung.</p>

<p>But the typically scattered nature of Trump&#8217;s comments have left plenty of room for maneuver. He also said he&#8217;d like the alliance to continue, and President Barack Obama<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/meeting-the-press-for-first-time-since-trumps-win-obama-says-new-president-is-committed-to-nato/2016/11/14/b90dbf7c-aa92-11e6-a31b-4b6397e625d0_story.html"> said</a> in a press conference on Monday that the president-elect was committed to a &ldquo;strong and robust NATO.&rdquo; Thousands of US Army personnel are already set to deploy to NATO member countries in Europe in January, including to the Baltic states on Russia&#8217;s border.</p>

<p>Trump could obstruct parts of the deployment, but pulling out entirely would in theory require the approval of all NATO members. Doing so would spark a huge international crisis and potentially lead key US allies to distance themselves from Washington on a variety of other issues.</p>

<p>A better litmus test for Trump&#8217;s stance toward Moscow will be the current US sanctions against Russia over its annexation of Crimea and support for rebels in eastern Ukraine. Trump could let the executive order forming the basis for the sanctions expire in March, or he could issue his own new executive order when he takes office repealing the sanctions. But although many of the more hawkish Republicans in Congress would balk at removing the sanctions, neither action would actually require Congressional approval.</p>

<p>Many of Moscow&#8217;s hopes center on Trump&#8217;s isolationist-sounding rhetoric and the possibility that a reduced American presence in the world would allow for greater Russian influence. But Trump has also promised to increase defense spending and<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/08/us/politics/donald-trump-speech.html"> expand the military</a> by 90,000 new soldiers and 75 new ships, widening its international reach.</p>

<p>That&#8217;s not to mention US allies near Russia developing nuclear weapons: Trump has said proliferation wouldn&#8217;t be a bad thing in the case of<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/04/06/should-more-countries-have-nuclear-weapons-donald-trump-thinks-so/"> Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia</a>, which would be a major expansion of the nuclear club that Russia would likely object to. Russia has<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/prospects-for-u-s-russian-nonproliferation-cooperation/"> long been a vital partner</a> in the effort to combat the spread of nuclear weapons, even during the Cold War.</p>

<p>&ldquo;That goes against what Russia has been working toward on nonproliferation. I think that the Russians would welcome a lesser US role in the world, but not these other things,&rdquo; Angela Stent, a professor of government and foreign service focusing on US-Russian-European relations at Georgetown University, told me in an interview.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Middle Eastern and Eastern European tangles</h2>
<p>Many of Trump&#8217;s positive comments about Putin were made in the context of<a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/28/politics/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-quotes/"> joining together to fight ISIS</a>, and Syria appears to be the first test for the new relationship. Besides generalities about building better ties, during their Monday phone call Putin and Trump discussed Syria and the &ldquo;need to unite forces in the struggle with common enemy number one, international terrorism,&rdquo; the Kremlin said.</p>

<p>Yet it&rsquo;s unclear if Trump truly understands the complexity of the Syrian conflict. For instance, despite Moscow&#8217;s anti-terrorist rhetoric, Western officials have<a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-russia-syria-strikes-20160617-snap-story.html"> accused it</a> in the past of directing the vast majority of its airstrikes not against ISIS, but against rebel groups fighting Assad.</p>

<p>Looking for a new deal with Russia focused on fighting ISIS, Trump could stop trying to broker a ceasefire between the rebels and the Assad regime, which is the path Secretary of State John Kerry has been pursuing for months, turn a blind eye to<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/25/russia-accused-war-crimes-syria-un-security-council-aleppo"> accusations</a> that Russia is committing war crimes by bombing civilians in cities like Aleppo, and end<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/world/middleeast/cia-arms-for-syrian-rebels-supplied-black-market-officials-say.html"> a CIA program</a> giving anti-tank missiles to moderate rebels.</p>

<p>This still wouldn&#8217;t guarantee that Putin could keep Assad in power, however, since Turkey and the Gulf states could ramp up their support for the rebels if the US steps back. And Trump&#8217;s opposition to the Iran nuclear deal &mdash; which he will find difficult to dismantle but might be able to<a href="http://www.vox.com/world/2016/11/9/13570956/putin-nato-isis-iraq-china-trade-crisis-president-trump"> undermine</a> &mdash; could also complicate Trump&rsquo;s plan to work with Russia in Syria, since Iran is a major ally of Russia and the Syrian regime.</p>

<p>The other international issue dividing Washington and Moscow is Ukraine, which Russia sees as part of its sphere of influence even though the country has now moved decisively toward the West. Trump has said he would &ldquo;<a href="http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/trump-crimeas-people-prefer-russia-elected-putin-ukraine/story?id=41029437">take a look</a>&rdquo; at recognizing Russia&#8217;s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, while also pledging to prevent Russia from deploying troops to Ukraine again.</p>

<p>Only a handful of countries, including North Korea and Syria, have recognized Crimea as part of Russia. Some have wondered if Trump might make an informal deal with Putin not to back Ukraine for membership in NATO or the European Union, but it&#8217;s hard to see what the new US president would gain by making all these concessions.</p>

<p>&ldquo;If Trump&#8217;s a businessman [who knows] the &#8216;Art of the Deal&#8217;, then each party of the deal has to get something. It&#8217;s not clear how [an informal Ukraine deal] would benefit the US,&rdquo; Georgetown&rsquo;s Stent told me.</p>

<p>&ldquo;An agreement to join together and fight the Islamic State, that was tried a month or two ago, and the US has been trying to do that and it hasn&#8217;t worked,&rdquo; Stent said. &ldquo;You have to ask what would be different now, so on both of those counts I don&#8217;t see a grand bargain here.&rdquo;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A “cat in a bag”?</h2>
<p>Trump would also be under enormous pressure from European allies not to make allowances for Russia. Already, Germany&#8217;s defense minister has called on him<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-germany-russia-idUSKBN1361AO"> not to forget</a> the annexation of Crimea, the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and Russia&rsquo;s bombing of Aleppo. Besides Europe, Trump will also be under pressure from Congress and perhaps even his own Cabinet to take a hard line on Russia.</p>

<p>Given his inexperience in the area, senior Republicans could play<a href="http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13593254/president-donald-trump-administration-cabinet-gop-nevertrump"> an outsize role in shaping foreign policy</a>. According to Pavel Sharikov of the Moscow-based Institute for US and Canada, a positive turn in US-Russian relations could be stymied by the fact that &ldquo;there is not one pro-Russian member of Congress,&rdquo; which is dominated by hawkish Republicans.</p>

<p>After Trump&#8217;s phone call with Putin, Senate Armed Services Committee Chair John McCain said that a reset with Russia and complicity in its Syria bloodshed would be &ldquo;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/a-trump-administration-thaw-with-russia-is-unacceptable-mccain-says/2016/11/15/a3b5c4da-ab5a-11e6-8b45-f8e493f06fcd_story.html">unacceptable</a>.&rdquo; GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham called this week for Congress to hold hearings about &ldquo;<a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-gop-sen-lindsey-graham-wants-congress-1479254194-htmlstory.html">Russia&rsquo;s misadventures throughout the world</a>,&rdquo; including the DNC hack.</p>

<p>On Tuesday, the House of Representatives <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/11/16/republican-lawmakers-move-to-restrain-president-elect-trump-on-russia/">passed a bill</a>&nbsp;imposing mandatory sanctions on anyone who supports Syria&rsquo;s government in the&nbsp;civil war &mdash;&nbsp;in other words, Russia and Iran. The bill is unlikely to pass the Senate before the end of the year, but it is yet another sign that Congressional Republicans are becoming increasingly worried about Trump&rsquo;s intentions regarding Russia and are taking steps to try to prevent a potential softening of relations between the two countries.</p>

<p>For his secretary of state, Trump is<a href="http://www.vox.com/world/2016/11/16/13638606/trump-secretary-state-defense-giuliani-bolton-islam-terrorism"> reportedly considering Rudy Giuliani</a>, who said this week that Washington should be more willing to<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/15/russia-would-back-down-in-face-of-military-force-says-donald-tru/"> threaten Russia will military force</a>, or former US Ambassador to NATO John Bolton, an extremely hawkish voice who has previously called for the United States to cause Putin &ldquo;<a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/vladimir-putin-russia-john-bolton-095327">pain</a>&rdquo; for harboring NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden.</p>

<p>Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions, reportedly the leading pick for secretary of defense, has also<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-03-04/trump-s-national-security-adviser-is-no-admirer-of-putin"> previously been tough on Russia</a>, although he has spoken more favorably about the country in the past few months.</p>

<p>For instance, in<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/08/15/sen-jeff-sessions-backs-donald-trump-russia-policy/88796584/"> a March 2014 speech</a>, Sessions called for increased sanctions against Russia to punish it for its aggressive actions in Ukraine and Georgia. &#8220;I believe a systematic effort should be undertaken so that Russia feels pain for this,&#8221; Sessions said. &#8220;Because if you don&#8217;t act now to make some sanctions against Russia, then why will they believe in the future that we&#8217;re going to impose sanctions or do anything aggressive if they move forward to take all of Ukraine, all of Georgia?&#8221;</p>

<p>And Vice President-elect Mike Pence recently<a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-vice-presidential-debate-live-in-a-shift-mike-pence-talks-tough-on-1475633804-htmlstory.html"> called</a> Putin a &ldquo;small and bullying leader&rdquo; and said that Russia&#8217;s &ldquo;provocations need to be met with American strength&rdquo; in Syria. Pence has also spoken out previously in support of a &ldquo;<a href="http://freebeacon.com/national-security/governor-mike-pence-in-berlin-diplomacy-with-russia-has-failed/">robust missile defense</a>&rdquo; system for all of Europe, plans that Russia has repeatedly railed against. (Trump has called for a missile defense expansion without<a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/294817-transcript-of-donald-trumps-speech-on-national-security-in"> specifically discussing the European shield</a>.)<strong> </strong></p>

<p>Commentators like Russian economist Konstantin Sonin have predicted that US-Russian relations under Trump will go through a &ldquo;<a href="http://ksonin.livejournal.com/622284.html">short honeymoon</a>&rdquo; before turning antagonistic again.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Russia&#8217;s domestic policy and politics has a very strong element that requires an enemy,&rdquo; the Kennan Institute&rsquo;s Trudolyubov told me. &ldquo;So they will have to come up with a new figure, and it will have to be a major force or power, or they will just continue using the United States, which means that by the time Trump is in power after January, they will already know that the honeymoon is over.&rdquo;</p>

<p>As the furor over Trump&#8217;s win dies down, some Russian officials are starting to express caution. In an interview with Russia&rsquo;s Interfax news agency, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was asked if Trump was a &ldquo;cat in a bag&rdquo; for Moscow &mdash; a Russian expression for something attractive but of unknown quality. Ryabkov responded that Trump&rsquo;s position on Russia during the campaign was actually &ldquo;<a href="http://www.interfax.ru/interview/536488">fairly harsh</a>.&rdquo; The diplomat was particularly critical of Trump&rsquo;s backing for European missile defense.</p>

<p>All of that, Ryabkov said, led him to a simple conclusion: Both Democrats and Republicans share &ldquo;anti-Russian&rdquo; feelings. Many Americans worry that Trump will be too close to Moscow; many in Moscow appear to worry that he won&rsquo;t be close enough.</p>

<p><em>Alec Luhn is<strong> </strong>a Moscow-based journalist who has written for the Guardian, the New York Times, Politico, Slate, Time, and others.</em></p>
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