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	<title type="text">Dylan Matthews | Vox</title>
	<subtitle type="text">Our world has too much noise and too little context. Vox helps you understand what matters.</subtitle>

	<updated>2026-02-18T21:25:00+00:00</updated>

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				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
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			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
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			<author>
				<name>Marina Bolotnikova</name>
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			<author>
				<name>Dylan Scott</name>
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				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
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			<author>
				<name>Kenny Torrella</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The 19 predictions that came true in 2025 — and the 4 that didn’t]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/473164/israel-iran-nuclear-bitcoin-trump-musk-congress-forecasts-2025" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=473164</id>
			<updated>2025-12-30T12:26:36-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-12-31T06:00:00-05:00</published>
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							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[It’s that time of year again. Every January 1, the Future Perfect team makes forecasts for the events we think will (or won’t) happen over the next 365 days. And every December 31, we go back over those predictions and tally up how we did.&#160; All of our predictions were made positively — as in, [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s that time of year again.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Every January 1, the Future Perfect team <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/392241/2025-new-year-predictions-trump-musk-artificial-intelligence">makes forecasts</a> for the events we think will (or won’t) happen over the next 365 days. And every December 31, we go back over those predictions and <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/391440/2024-predictions-revisited-trump-politics-tech">tally up how we did</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">All of our predictions were made positively — as in, something <em>will </em>happen — and came with probabilities attached, which are meant to indicate our relative confidence in the forecast. To simplify scoring, predictions that came with a higher than 50 percent probability that proved out, or with a probability below 50 percent that did not prove out, were marked as “correct call.” Those that came with a higher than 50 percent probability that did not prove out, or with a lower than 50 percent probability that did prove out, were marked “incorrect call.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If for some reason the forecast could not be resolved — such as, random example here, a new US government <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3XS0FR:0-schedule-for-us-economic-data-delayed-by-government-shutdown/">chose to delay putting out data or a report that would have clarified the question</a> — we marked it as undecided.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The scorecard? Nineteen correct, four incorrect, and two undecided works out to a winning percentage of .800, if we count ties as half a win. (That would put us a tad over the 1906 Chicago Cubs, who <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/most-mlb-wins-in-a-season-c289159676">recorded</a> the best single-season winning percentage in major league baseball history. Hopefully this doesn’t mean we’ll be cursed for a century.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As always, the point is less to keep score than to get better at forecasting by identifying where we’ve succeeded, where we’ve failed — and maybe where we need to take some more chances. Fortunately, we’ll have another shot tomorrow, when we publish our 2026 forecasts. —<em>Bryan Walsh</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The United States</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Congress passes a major tariff bill (20 percent) — CORRECT CALL&nbsp;</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">2025 certainly did not lack for tariff news, but almost all of it came from the Trump administration, which used executive powers to <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/407111/trump-tariff-formula-calculation-russia-economy-dow-sp">impose sweeping new duties on most countries on Earth</a>, and from the <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/467485/supreme-court-tariff-argument-trump-learning-resources-vos-selections">Supreme Court</a> as it weighed whether any of that was legal.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There was some speculation at the start of 2025 that the need for new revenue in Republicans’ big tax bill would lead it to include some Trump-y tariffs. That didn’t happen, mostly because it didn’t need to happen: President Donald Trump could just impose the tariffs unilaterally, or try to at least. As I wrote in my initial prediction, “the odds that Trump does new tariffs using presidential authority are nearly 100 percent.” If anything, “nearly” 100 percent was an underestimate. —<em>Dylan Matthews&nbsp;</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trump dissolves the Department of Education (5 percent) —</strong><strong> CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Let’s check the fine print: This prediction would’ve resolved true if Congress passed a law formally abolishing the Department of Education. That did not happen in 2025, so the prediction stands.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What Trump <em>did</em> do is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-dismantling-education-department-8b5d0961700f0fe69d18ea80b437c8b8">issue an executive order</a> instructing the Secretary of Education to, “to the maximum extent appropriate and permitted by law, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/improving-education-outcomes-by-empowering-parents-states-and-communities/">take all necessary steps to facilitate the closure of the Department of Education</a>.” What has followed are sweeping staff cuts that it&#8217;s fair to call a gutting of the department, with various court challenges that in July culminated in a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/07/14/nx-s1-5443564/trump-supreme-court-education-department">Supreme Court ruling in favor</a> of the administration, at least for the time being. One major pending fight is over <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/us/politics/school-coalition-lawsuit-education-department.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4E8.Bw5Q.o0PKVJZwbheS&amp;smid=url-share">the legality of the department moving its functions to other parts of the federal government</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But again, read the fine print. The administration&#8217;s solicitor general, in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24A1203/362486/20250606104613590_McMahon%20Stay%20Application.pdf">his Supreme Court filing in June</a>, stated, “The government has been crystal clear in acknowledging that only Congress can eliminate the Department of Education.” What the administration did were simply layoffs, not the closure of a legally created government agency. While the Trump team is clearly trying to have it both ways here, I’m inclined to trust their lawyer —&nbsp;they did not dissolve the department. —<em>DM</em></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2194444069.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="President Donald Trump sits at the Oval Office desk, pen in hand, smiling and signing papers in black folders." title="President Donald Trump sits at the Oval Office desk, pen in hand, smiling and signing papers in black folders." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on January 20, 2025.&lt;/p&gt; | Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images" />
<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Affordable Care Act is repealed (30 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This is another one where the fine print matters. In my initial prediction, I wrote that a bill “repealing the ACA” has to do at least three of the following five things:</p>

<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Eliminate or reduce the ACA’s Medicaid eligibility or federal funding</li>



<li>Eliminate or reduce ACA health insurance tax credit eligibility or amount</li>



<li>Eliminate or curtail the mandate for certain employers to provide health coverage for employees. Reducing the penalties will also be considered to be relaxing the mandate.</li>



<li>Make it so that ACA subsidies are no longer limited to plans that satisfy the requirements specified in the ACA, including allowing ACA subsidies to be contributed to health savings accounts or similar accounts</li>



<li>Eliminate or curtail medical underwriting restrictions, like the ban on considering preexisting conditions</li>
</ul>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The One Big Beautiful Bill Act certainly satisfies the first two of these requirements. Per the <a href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/whats-one-big-beautiful-bill-act">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget&#8217;s breakdown</a>, the bill includes $1.1 trillion in cuts to health care programs over a decade. The vast majority of those cuts go to Medicaid, by imposing work requirements, limiting “provider taxes,” and other changes. But about $226 billion in cuts go to the Affordable Care Act’s exchange-based coverage, mostly by making certain immigrants ineligible.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But squeezing Medicaid and the exchanges is, at most, cutting the Affordable Care Act, not repealing it. Trump and Congress did not change the employer mandate for health insurance, or allow ACA funds to go into health savings accounts, or, crucially, eliminate protections for people with preexisting conditions or limits on hiking premiums based on age. In my book, that means the ACA has yet to be repealed. <em>—DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Jerome Powell will no longer be Fed chair (10 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump would love nothing more than to fire Jerome Powell, who was first appointed chair of the Federal Reserve by some fiendish anti-MAGA president named Donald Trump way back in 2017. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/06/24/nx-s1-5442665/federal-reserve-powell-economy-interest-rates-tariffs">Powell has been open</a> about the way Trump’s tariffs, by hiking prices, are slowing the Fed’s process of lowering interest rates, and the president does not like that one bit.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In April, Trump said <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination">Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough!”</a> In July, he showed off a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/16/us/politics/trump-powell-firing-letter.html">letter he had written, but not filed, firing Powell</a>. In November, he told reporters he wanted to fire Powell, but people like Treasury Secretary Steve Bessent are “holding me back.” And in August, Trump attempted to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg6pzz5700o">move the Supreme Court has blocked</a> but which was, among other things, a clear threat to Powell that he could be next.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Yet here Powell is, still chair of the Fed. Actually removing him, or trying, proved too rich for Trump’s blood. Powell’s term as chair ends in May 2026, meaning Trump will pick his successor, but it appears he’ll be able to stay in charge until then. He can also keep his post as a regular governor on the board until January 2028, if he wants it. —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trump will have a positive favorability rating (25 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Let’s go to <a href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin">the graph</a>, folks:</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/do-americans-b-style-color-16877a-approve-b-or-b-style-color-d95f02-disapprove-b-of-donald-trump-.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A graph showing polling averages for Donald Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings over 2025, with the disapproval steadily rising and the approval steadily falling." title="A graph showing polling averages for Donald Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings over 2025, with the disapproval steadily rising and the approval steadily falling." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin&quot;&gt;Silver Bulletin&lt;/a&gt;" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Everyone’s polling average is a little different, but basically every one looks like this from Nate Silver: Trump began his presidency slightly above water, but now Americans disapprove of him by a healthy margin (13 points here). <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker">The Economist’s average</a> shows him as less popular than either President Joe Biden or Trump himself in term one were at this point in their presidencies.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Being below water at this point has become pretty normal for presidents <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx">in the 21st century</a>, so there wasn’t much courage in me predicting Trump would be more disliked than liked. But it’s interesting to me that the speed of the decline has picked up in recent months. I would’ve guessed that Trump’s most-disliked period would’ve been the height of DOGE, but it’s been the period when his <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/469394/jeffrey-epstein-files-scandal-explained-trump-giuffre">ties to Jeffrey Epstein were most under question</a>. —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Musk and Trump are still friends at the end of the year (40 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Only two men can tell us if Elon Musk and Trump are truly, as of December 2025, “friends.” But the formal definition I used here is that they stop being friends “if one or the other publicly and unambiguously disparages his counterpart at least three times” over the year. And buddy…</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-29-at-11.40.23%E2%80%AFAM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-29-at-11.40.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-29-at-11.41.33%E2%80%AFAM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-29-at-11.42.01%E2%80%AFAM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Those Musk tweets are now deleted, and there appears to have been <a href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1991241884056895703">some degree of rapprochement</a> in the ensuing months. But as predicted, there was a massive blow-up in their relationship, centered around the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and, implicitly, the <a href="https://time.com/7336327/doge-disbanded-elon-musk/">failure of Musk’s DOGE to do anything to actually reduce federal spending</a>. While it does seem as if they’ve made an attempt to patch things up, what’s clear is that their bond is much weaker than it was on January 1. Sad! —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s preliminary estimates of US car crash deaths for 2024 will be lower than 40,000 (70 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">America stands out among wealthy nations for being the land of <a href="https://www.vox.com/22675358/us-car-deaths-year-traffic-covid-pandemic">death by cars</a>. But there is, finally, some good news here: After a terrifying period of elevated car fatalities during Covid, the US has seen <a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813756">13 consecutive quarterly declines</a> in these deaths. <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-estimates-39345-traffic-fatalities-2024">As of 2024</a>, we’re back below 40,000 Americans killed by cars annually, according to federal statistics — an achievement that (sadly) calls for celebration. But we still have a ways to go before we’re back down to the pre-pandemic baseline. —<em>Marina Bolotnikova</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The world</strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2242177577.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Benjamin Netanyahu standing in front of an Israeli flag." title="Benjamin Netanyahu standing in front of an Israeli flag." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with US Vice President J.D. Vance on October 22, 2025 in Jerusalem, Israel. &lt;/p&gt; | Nathan Howard/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Nathan Howard/Getty Images" />
<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Benjamin Netanyahu is still Israel’s PM at the end of November 2025 (75 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Netanyahu seemed like a marked man going into 2025. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The war in Gaza had already stretched past a year, and dozens of hostages remained in the hands of Hamas, even as Israel was <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/461977/un-commission-report-israel-genocide-gaza">coming under fire</a> for charges of genocide in its conduct of the war. Netanyahu himself was facing <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/3/26/18282151/netanyahu-trump-white-house-corruption-joke">long-running corruption allegations</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/7/23/23804795/israel-protests-judicial-reforms-netanyahu-likud-idf">public anger over both judicial reforms</a> and the war, while the International Criminal Court had <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/11/1157286">issued arrest warrants</a> for him and for his former defense minister Yoav Gallant (as well as Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Well, there’s a reason that Netanyahu is the <a href="https://theweek.com/politics/how-benjamin-netanyahu-shaped-israel-in-his-own-image">longest-serving leader in Israeli history</a>: The man has an undeniable talent for political self-preservation. With Trump returning to the White House, Netanyahu had an ally who <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/398894/trump-gaza-clean-out-riviera-egypt-jordan-palestinians-netanyahu">gave him an even freer hand in Gaza</a>, where Israel adopted tactics that maximized damage (and civilian suffering) in Gaza while <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2025/01/israel-takes-stock-of-military-casualties-over-a-year-of-war.php">reducing the record number of casualties it had suffered in 2024</a>. In June, he launched a <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/416833/israel-iran-war-missiles-tel-aviv-strike-nuclear">major attack against Iran</a> that represented a major tactical victory, one that ultimately included enlisting the US in the attack. By October, whether he fully wanted it or not, Netanyahu <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/464774/gaza-ceasefire-october-netanyahu-peace-last">had a ceasefire in Gaza</a> that included the return of the remaining 20 living hostages. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As 2026 begins, Netanyahu is <a href="https://en.idi.org.il/media/29601/israeli-voice-index-november-2025-eng-data.pdf">far from popular</a> and Israel has increasingly become an international pariah, but he has yet to be dislodged from his position at the top of his deeply divided country. Perhaps that will change with the next Israeli elections, which must take place no later than October 27, but I, for one, have learned not to bet against this man.&nbsp;—<em>BW</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Argentina’s yearly inflation is below 30 percent (20 percent)</strong><strong> — UNDECIDED</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This has been a very challenging year for Argentina’s economy, after a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentinas-2024-economy-shrinks-17-despite-late-year-rebound-2025-03-19/">surprisingly strong 2024</a>. Inflation is far below where it was when the populist Kirchners were in charge, but swaggering libertarian president Javier Milei’s reforms have also led to high unemployment and voter discontent. That led to a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/argentina-election-javier-milei-cristina-fernandez-peronism-fecba6d106eb2c0f2440e9fca298e470">defeat in Buenos Aires elections in September</a>, which <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/argentine-markets-plunge-after-mileis-party-loses-peronists-buenos-aires-vote-2025-09-08/">led currency, stock, and bond markets to fret</a> over the country’s prospects. This culminated in the US government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentinas-central-bank-says-it-signed-20-billion-currency-swap-deal-with-us-2025-10-20/">offering to buy up to $20 billion in Argentinian pesos</a> so Milei’s government had an adequate supply of dollars and could maintain a viable exchange rate.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Having the world hegemon bail you out is, it turns out, good politics: Less than two months after the bad Buenos Aires results, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/10/27/nx-s1-5585097/argentina-president-wins-milei-midterm-elections">Milei won national midterms in a landslide</a>, giving him much firmer support in Argentina’s National Congress for his reforms.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That’s all background to the question here: inflation. I predicted that inflation would continue to fall but not below 30 percent; I relied in part on an IMF forecast of 45 percent inflation. The most recent data as I write this comes from October, where prices were <a href="https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/argentina/news/inflation/argentina-consumer-prices-12-11-2025-inflation-decelerates-in-october-from-september/">31.3 percent higher</a> than October 2024. That implies an annual inflation rate just above our 30 percent cutoff. We&#8217;ll have to see what the January numbers say, but there&#8217;s a very good chance I was wrong here and underestimated Milei and the Argentinian economy. Regardless of which side of 30 percent we land on, I was much too confident. —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>There will be a ceasefire in Ukraine (75 percent)</strong><strong> — INCORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">When I made this call, I thought the logic was straightforward. The war was grinding into its third year, both sides had taken appalling losses, and Trump was about to take office with little interest in writing Ukraine a blank check. It seemed reasonable that Moscow and Kyiv would fight hard for marginal gains in early 2025, then accept a ceasefire that froze the lines. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That is not the world we’re in. As 2025 ends, the conflict in Ukraine <a href="https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12534/IN12534.1.pdf">remains the largest war</a> in Europe since World War II, with well over a million people killed or wounded and Russia still occupying <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-is-preparing-contacts-with-united-states-ukraine-kremlin-says-2025-12-18/">roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory</a>. There have been <a href="https://www.ungeneva.org/en/news-media/news/2025/04/105793/ukraine-ceasefire-critical-first-step-road-durable-peace">brief truces</a> — measured in dozens of hours or a few days at most — but nothing that qualifies as the “durable pause in the fighting” I had in mind.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Instead, we have diplomacy without peace. The Trump administration <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/469993/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-zelenskyy">is pushing a plan</a> that would freeze the front lines and lift some sanctions; Russian and American officials are shuttling between European capitals and Miami hotel conference rooms; and Ukraine, Europe, and the US have reportedly agreed on most of a peace framework. The sticking point is exactly what you’d expect: territory and legitimacy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-12-16/zelensky-says-proposals-to-end-war-in-ukraine-could-be-presented-to-russia-within-days">still refuses</a> to recognize Russia’s land grab in the east and south, while Putin insists that any ceasefire ratify his conquests.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In retrospect, I overweighted “war-weariness” and underweighted how much the key actors care about not losing. I implicitly assumed a Korean War-style ending: a bloody stalemate capped by an ugly armistice. What we actually got was the stalemate without the armistice, and one that is set to continue into the new year. —<em>BW</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Iran gets nuclear weapons (30 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This was the prediction where I tried to be precise about definitions. I <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/392241/2025-new-year-predictions-trump-musk-artificial-intelligence">wrote</a> that “getting nuclear weapons” didn’t mean a test or a declared arsenal, but Iran producing enough fissile material to fuel at least one bomb. Building and deploying an actual warhead, I argued, could take months or years beyond that. So instead, I staked this prediction on a key nuclear benchmark: Iran enriching uranium to weapons-grade (~90% U-235) in sufficient quantity for at least one device.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Not long after I made the prediction, Iran was <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-weapons-grade-uranium-trump-0b11a99a7364f9a43e1c83b220114d45">already enriching</a> uranium to 60 percent at its Natanz and Fordow facilities, and outside experts thought its “breakout time” — how long it would take to produce weapons-grade uranium for one device — was <a href="https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/us-intelligence-says-iran-could-produce-enough-uranium-for-one-nuclear-bomb-in-under-a-week">down to perhaps a week</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2025, the enrichment problem got dramatically worse. A February International Atomic Energy&nbsp;Agency report <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-weapons-grade-uranium-trump-0b11a99a7364f9a43e1c83b220114d45">found</a> that Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent-enriched uranium had jumped to about 275 kilograms, up roughly 50 percent from late 2024. By May, the agency was <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5e4dbcdc-760a-4c99-baca-eb321e410ff3">estimating</a> some 408.6 kilograms of 60-percent material — and a June update put the figure at around 440.9 kilograms, which its own yardstick says is enough, if further enriched, for <a href="https://www.bworldonline.com/world/2025/06/01/676303/damning-iaea-report-spells-out-past-secret-nuclear-activities-in-iran/">roughly nine or 10 simple fission weapons</a>. Then came a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/12/17/iran-israel-war-nuclear-scientists-frontline-pbs/">12-day US-Israeli air and covert campaign</a> that killed senior Iranian nuclear scientists and wrecked parts of the program, but even Israeli and US officials <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2025/06/questions-linger-about-irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-after-u-s-airstrikes/">concede</a> it did not eliminate Iran’s ability to rebuild.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While all highly enriched uranium — anything above about 20 percent enriched — <a href="https://nuclear-news.net/2025/06/23/1-a-clearing-up-the-confusion-about-iran-and-uranium-enrichment/">is in principle</a> weapon-usable, watchdogs <a href="https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential">note</a> that Iran has not been publicly observed enriching to the classic weapons-grade threshold of 90 percent, nor is there evidence of an actual tested device.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So did Iran “get nuclear weapons” in 2025? The answer remains no, although it comes with the additional confounding factor that, with international inspections suspended, the true state of Iran’s nuclear program may be murkier than ever. Which is why you can expect this question to continue to haunt international politics in 2026 and beyond. —<em>BW</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Science and technology</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The World Health Organization (WHO) will declare H5N1 a pandemic in 2025 (25 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I’ve been covering the H5N1 bird flu virus since the spring of 2003 in Hong Kong, when there was some suspicion <a href="https://time.com/archive/6668574/sars-unmasking-a-crisis/">that the unknown illness</a> spreading in southern China at the time might be bird flu finally transmitting human to human. It wasn’t — it was something entirely new called SARS-CoV-1, though back in those pre-Covid days we didn’t have the “1.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Every January since, I’ve been wondering if this is the year we finally get our dreaded bird flu pandemic. And every year, including 2025, it hasn’t been.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Instead, we got a year that underlined the basic tension of H5N1: It keeps looking terrifying on paper, while acting more like a slow-burn animal disaster than a human pandemic. H5 bird flu is now <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html">entrenched</a> in wild birds, poultry, and US dairy cattle. The US <a href="https://www.vox.com/explainers/399776/auto-draft">experienced</a> its first US H5N1 death early in the year and nearly 70 US infections since April 2024, mostly among workers around infected herds and flocks.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On the animal side, the picture is much worse. A major <em>Nature</em> perspective <a href="https://qcb.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2025/02/s41586-024-08054-z.pdf">described</a> a true H5N1 “panzootic” across bird and mammal species, including mink, marine mammals, and cattle, with clear evidence of mammal-to-mammal spread in some settings and worrying adaptive mutations. What we’re seeing adds up to an unprecedented number of mammalian infections, severe neurological disease in animals, and growing uncertainty about how close this virus is to efficient human transmission.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There is some good news on preparedness. Health agencies still <a href="https://www.woah.org/app/uploads/2025/05/hpai-report-70-1.pdf">classify</a> the overall public health risk from current H5 viruses as low, and vaccine work is accelerating. In December, Moderna and CEPI <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-secures-up-543-million-funding-bird-flu-vaccine-global-coalition-2025-12-18/">announced</a> funding for a late-stage trial of an mRNA bird flu vaccine.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So, once again, no H5N1 bird flu pandemic in humans. After 22 years of covering this virus I’m tempted to just say that pandemic will never happen, but I’m not quite that foolhardy. When it comes to H5N1, we’ve been more lucky than we’ve been good. —<em>BW</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>A major lab will formally claim it has achieved AGI (30 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There is a lot of hype and boosterism in the world of AI. The firm <a href="https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/whats-up-with-anthropic-predicting">Anthropic has publicly predicted</a> they’ll get to artificial intelligence systems “matching or exceeding that of Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines” by 2027. Elon Musk, meanwhile, has <a href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1979431839824777673">tweeted</a>, “My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 [his firm xAI’s next model] achieving AGI is now 10 percent and rising.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But Grok 5 isn’t out yet, and it’s 2025, not 2027. I made a very long list of Western companies that could even theoretically be in the running to build AGI (including, like, Netflix, which is not trying to do this at all). Foolishly, I didn’t include Chinese firms, failing to anticipate the “<a href="https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/publication/taking-stock-deepseek-shock">DeepSeek shock</a>” at the start of 2025.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In any case, nobody claimed AGI this past year, whether in the US or China. I’d be surprised if anyone does in 2026, either. Then again, AI as a field is always able to surprise me. —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>EVs will make up more than 10 percent of new car sales in the US by the end of Q3 2025 (65 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2247383474.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A car at an EV charger" title="A car at an EV charger" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="An electric car recharges its battery at a curbside Charge Point electric vehicle charging station on November 16, 2025, in Jersey City, New Jersey. | Gary Hershorn/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Gary Hershorn/Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">So, I was right here, but I may be wrong in spirit. Electric cars <a href="https://www.kbb.com/car-news/americans-bought-record-number-of-evs-in-third-quarter/">made up 10.5 percent of new car sales</a> in the third quarter of 2025 — but that was probably only because people who wanted an EV anyway were rushing to buy one before the federal government’s $7,500 tax credits for new EVs, which were <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/458567/trump-ford-electric-car-tax-credit-f-f150">killed</a> by Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill expired at the end of September. US electric car sales are expected to dip significantly as a result. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Beyond ending that subsidy, which was critical for EV adoption, the Trump administration is trying to go after every other pillar that makes electric cars viable. They’ve proposed significantly weakening Biden-era fuel economy rules and <a href="https://electrek.co/2025/02/06/trump-just-canceled-the-federal-nevi-ev-charger-program/">hamstrung</a> the buildout of EV charging stations. Oh, and half the country hates Elon Musk now, so Tesla sales, which once made up the <a href="https://electrek.co/2021/02/16/tesla-owns-electric-car-market-us">overwhelming majority</a> of the US electric car market, have taken a big hit. Americans also just seem wary of electric cars because of vague cultural vibes and societal malaise. The US is way behind the rest of the world in EV adoption — a lag that Trump seems determined to turn into a permanent technological deficit. <em>—MB</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Bitcoin’s price will at some point in 2025 breach $200,000 (70 percent) — INCORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Funny enough, as a bit of a bitcoin skeptic, I bought into the bitcoin hype — only to be disappointed. I thought for certain after crypto bros <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/17/politics/crypto-industry-donald-trump-reelection">helped</a> put Trump into office, he’d reward the best-known cryptocurrency around with astronomical growth. When Trump was sworn in, bitcoin was already <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/">hovering</a> near its all-time high value, a little over $100,000. The sky was the limit.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But then, uh, <em>Trump</em> happened. Rather than building on the record 2024 gains that made me so optimistic, bitcoin <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bitcoins-2025-rollercoaster-may-end-low-2025-12-09/">endured</a> a turbulent year. Uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs, the AI boom and its own unpredictable economic impact, and other economic variables (interest rates) sent the bitcoin price plummeting, then soaring, and back again. Bitcoin did <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/bitcoin-hovers-near-all-time-high-2025-10-06/">reach</a> a new record high briefly back in October, at more than $125,000, but it fell far short of my projection — and <a href="https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/BTC-USD?sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjpqrOateORAxWU48kDHRj0BP8Q-fUHegQIDRAW&amp;window=1Y" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/BTC-USD?sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjpqrOateORAxWU48kDHRj0BP8Q-fUHegQIDRAW&amp;window=1Y">as of this writing</a> on December 29, it’s back well below where it was at Trump’s inauguration. Whoops. —<em>Dylan Scott</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Elon Musk is still the richest person in the world (55 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/">Bloomberg Billionaire&#8217;s Index</a> has seen some fascinating shifts over the past year. There are now 18 billionaires worth at least $100 billion each, including three members of the Walton family. Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google each added about $100 billion to their tally as Alphabet stock rallied. But the same guy remained at the top, buoyed by the persistently high price of Tesla stock: Elon Musk. As of December 29, he&#8217;s worth $638 billion, or more than twice Page, who&#8217;s currently in second with $270 billion.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But you know what’s cooler than half a trillion dollars? A trillion dollars, which <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/business/elon-musk-tesla-pay-vote.html">Musk got Tesla stockholders to agree to pay him</a> if the firm hits key targets over the next 10 years. I guess one of these years we’ll have to add a “the world gets a trillionaire” prediction. —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>A new application for psychedelic therapy drugs is submitted to the FDA (20 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After last year’s brouhaha with Lykos Therapeutics — the organization that <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/365820/mdma-therapy-lykos-therapeutics-maps-psychedelics-ecstasy">tried (and failed) getting MDMA-assisted therapy approved</a> by the FDA — we didn’t have the highest confidence here. In order to have an application ready for review, you need Phase 3 trials. And those take years to accomplish — and neither Compass Pathways nor the Usona Institute, the two companies mayhaps the furthest along in psilocybin depression treatment, submitted.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But! Oshan Jarow’s initial prediction also accounted for the possibility of the FDA using emergency use authorization to temporarily reschedule certain psychedelics. That didn’t happen either. Fingers crossed for 2027? <em>—Izzie Ramirez</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The 2025–2030 federal dietary guidelines advise Americans to avoid ultra-processed foods (30 percent) — UNDECIDED</strong><strong>&nbsp;</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If this were a normal year, the new dietary guidelines that will shape the next five years of food policy would have already been released. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had even <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/new-us-dietary-guidelines-come-before-august-kennedy-says-2025-05-14/">promised</a> to release them ahead of schedule, well before August, and with everything we need to know to guide nutritional choices condensed into just four pages!&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Of course, that didn’t happen, and the new guidelines have now been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/04/us/politics/dietary-guidelines-americans.html">delayed</a> until January. It turns out that nutrition science is actually quite complicated and can’t just be reduced to aphorisms like, as Kennedy puts it, “eat whole foods.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">My prediction had totally underestimated how incompetent and unmoored from expert consensus the second Trump administration would turn out to be. Once the guidelines come out, I now <em>do</em> expect that they’ll probably make confusing and misleading claims about <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/391795/ultra-processed-foods-science-vegan-meat-rfk-maha">so-called ultra-processed foods</a>, along with other bad advice, which I thought unlikely a year ago. And, lesson learned, I’m going to avoid making predictions that rely on the timely release of federal government information for the foreseeable future.&nbsp;<em>—MB</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Animals</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Antibiotic sales for use in livestock production will have increased by at least 0.5 percent in 2024 (55 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Sometimes you can be “right,” and yet still miss the mark. I really underestimated how dramatically antibiotic sales for use in livestock production would increase in 2024. I predicted, with a timid 55 percent probability, that sales would increase by at least 0.5 percent. But in 2024, they shot up by an astonishing <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/472014/meat-dairy-antibiotic-resistance-fda">15.8 percent</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That should worry you because antibiotics use in livestock production is a <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance">pressing public health problem</a>. Here’s why, from my prediction last year:</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Most of the antibiotics used in human medicine are actually sold to meat companies, which put them in animals’ feed to make them grow faster and prevent disease outbreaks in factory farms. But some bacteria on farms are becoming resistant to these antibiotics, giving way to new strains of antibiotic-resistant bacteria that make the drugs less effective in treating humans.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For years, US <a href="https://www.tysonfoods.com/sustainability/product-responsibility/animal-health-welfare/antibiotic-stewardship">meat companies</a> and <a href="https://nppc.org/antimicrobials/">trade groups</a> — along with the <a href="https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/fda-antimicrobial-stewardship-animals-stakeholder-resources">US Food and Drug Administration</a> — pledged to be better “stewards” of these precious drugs, namely by reducing their use. It appears that it was mostly hot air. There <em>were</em> steep declines of antibiotic use in the mid-2010s, thanks to FDA rules, but sales have since stabilized and are now increasing. The vibes are shifting on antibiotics in meat production, and that’s bad news for the future of these lifesaving medicines. —<em>Kenny Torrella</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Bird flu results in the deaths of at least 30 million farmed birds by the end of 2025 (60 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2209043525.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A grocery store cooler full of eggs, with a paper sign reading “Eggs Limit of 2.”" title="A grocery store cooler full of eggs, with a paper sign reading “Eggs Limit of 2.”" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="With an outbreak of bird flu, millions of chickens were euthanized to prevent the spread of the virus, leading to a decline in the egg supply and driving prices to record highs. | Deb Cohn-Orbach/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Deb Cohn-Orbach/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">This current bird flu outbreak has been dragging on for nearly four years, and 2025 was one of the worst yet, with nearly 54 million birds culled as of December 12.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The virus hit egg farms particularly hard in <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/400361/bird-flu-egg-shortage-nevada-cage-free">late 2024 and early 2025</a>, resulting in egg shortages and <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111">massive price spikes</a>. Some grocery stores even restricted the number of cartons each customer could purchase.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The egg industry, which has been damaged the most by the bird flu, is <a href="https://hickmanseggs.com/avian-PDF/UEP-Board-Approved-HPAI-Vaccination-and-Surveillance-Plan.pdf">ready to start vaccinating</a> its birds. But the US Department of Agriculture won’t let it, for fear it’ll severely disrupt the trade of chicken <em>meat</em> — an entirely different sector of the animal agriculture sector. It’s a long and complicated story, which I went into detail on a couple of months ago; check out the story <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/466446/bird-flu-vaccine-eggs-chicken">here</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I have little hope common sense will prevail in 2026, so we’re likely in for another bad year of dead birds, higher food prices, and unused vaccines.&nbsp;—<em>KT</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>California’s animal agriculture law Proposition 12 will not be overturned by Congress (65 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I should, if anything, have predicted this with higher probability. The only somewhat surprising part is that Congress still hasn’t passed a new Farm Bill to replace the one that expired more than two years ago, which is really behind schedule even by today’s chronically late legislative standards. (The coalition that made the last century of farm bills possible <a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025/07/republicans-farm-bill-hopes-now-rest-with-democrats-00449579">is breaking down</a>, as Republicans <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/by-the-numbers-harmful-republican-megabill-takes-food-assistance-away-from">demand steep cuts to SNAP</a> and an end to “climate-smart” provisions in ag funding.) </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In theory, that still gives them the chance to kill Prop 12 in the Farm Bill that eventually passes, but the longer that the animal welfare law remains in place, the less likely the pork industry is to continue campaigning against it, and the less likely it is to be nullified — and thank God for that. <em>—MB</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>At least one additional state bans lab-grown meat in 2025 (80 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This is another case of being technically right while far underestimating reality. I predicted at least one state would ban the production and sale of lab-grown, or cell-cultivated, meat in 2025, but three to five did, depending on how you look at it: <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/mississippi-bans-lab-grown-meat/">Mississippi</a>, <a href="https://news.mt.gov/Governors-Office/Governor_Gianforte_Bans_Lab-Grown_Meat_in_Montana">Montana</a>, and <a href="https://governor.nebraska.gov/gov-pillen-signs-legislation-banning-fake-meat-nebraska">Nebraska</a> passed indefinite bans, while <a href="https://stateline.org/2025/06/30/texas-becomes-seventh-state-to-ban-lab-grown-meat/">Texas</a> and <a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/03/cultivated-chicken-imitation-label-law/84447727007/">Indiana</a> passed two-year bans.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Prior to 2025, only <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/2/14/24069722/political-ban-cell-cultivated-lab-grown-meat-plant-based-labeling-laws">Florida and Alabama</a> had banned it.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The movement is primarily driven by Republican state lawmakers, including some who are ranchers and farmers themselves, which represents a form of “government protectionism” for the meat industry, according to one Nebraska cattle rancher who opposed the bans (so too did <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/proposal-ban-lab-grown-meat-205338825.html?">several state-level Nebraska farm groups</a>, along with the <a href="https://www.rfdtv.com/ncba-doesnt-want-to-ban-lab-grown-meat-just-advocating-for-clear-labeling-and-fair-competition">National Cattlemen’s Beef Association</a>).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the short term, the bans have little impact, as no cell-cultivated meat company has scaled up their production enough to sell large amounts of the product. Several companies now have government approval to do so, but Wildtype — the San Francisco-based startup that makes cell-cultivated salmon — is the only one that’s managed to get into <a href="https://www.wildtypefoods.com/try-wildtype">numerous restaurants</a>; two in California, one in Oregon, and one in Washington state, which are unlikely to pass bans. If you have the chance to try them, I recommend it —&nbsp;I did a few years ago and thought it was <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23507372/lab-grown-seafood-fish-bluenalu-wildtype-cultivated-cultured-meat">delicious</a>. —<em>KT</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Culture and sports</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>A major sports gambling scandal leads at least one All-Star in the four major professional sports to be suspended (30 percent)</strong><strong> — INCORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Okay, technically, Emmanuel Clase, the Cleveland Guardians star closer and three-time All-Star, is on &#8220;nondisciplinary paid leave” but for the purposes of this prediction, we’re going to call it suspension by another name. Clase and his teammate Luis Ortiz were <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/emmanuel-clase-arrested-pleads-not-guilty/">arrested</a> in November on charges of illegally conspiring in a scheme to rig their pitches in order to pay out prop bets made by their associates. You can now find <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1osv8dy/compilation_of_emmanuel_clase_spiking_1st_pitches/">all kinds of videos</a> detailing how Clase would throw his first pitch in the dirt after entering a game; as it turns out, his co-conspirators were allegedly betting that first pitch would be a ball.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">However, based on the rules of our prediction contest, since I put less than 30 percent probability, this technically comes up “wrong.” But I was onto something. Legal gambling continues to creep into every facet of professional sports, with the happy collaboration of the leagues, and the scandals have followed. Clase wasn’t alone this year: Former NBA All-Star, current Portland head coach, and once-presumed future Hall of Famer Chauncey Billups was <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/46695228/sources-terry-rozier-arrested-part-gambling-inquiry">implicated</a> in a separate sports betting scandal this year. Unless something changes, I suspect neither of them will be the last. —<em>DS</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Max Verstappen wins the Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship (60 percent) — INCORRECT CALL</strong></h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2251248090.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A man holds a trophy and has a medal around his neck, with Redbull costuming for an F1 race" title="A man holds a trophy and has a medal around his neck, with Redbull costuming for an F1 race" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;Max Verstappen on the podium celebrating his win at the 2025 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in United Arab Emirates on December 7, 2025.&lt;/p&gt; | Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Sigh. Okay, so in any ordinary year, I would have put Verstappen, the four-time champion driver for Red Bull, at an 80 percent likelihood of winning. He’s a menace. Can drive from the back of the grid all the way to first. But things were rocky at Red Bull, from second driver woes to full-on company culture shifts. The 2025 Red Bull car was&nbsp;— and this is as nicely as I’ll put it — underperformed. All the while, McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were gaining points weekend after weekend.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For most of the year, I was thinking about this prediction. Was I too generous? He wasn’t a contender for the first half of the season. But it’s Verstappen we’re talking about — <a href="https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/verstappen-very-proud-despite-remarkable-championship-comeback-falling-two.6aLc8om0STvgLnhgF8wBwP">he made a legendary 104-point comeback</a>, essentially unheard of in F1. Then the last few races were total nail-biters, with the three drivers so close to each other in points. I was even thinking about hiring an Etsy witch so I could say I was right for this silly little article.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Anyway, Verstappen ended up winning the season closer in Abu Dhabi, but Lando Norris took the championship title by 2 measly points. Yes, I’m upset about it. <em>—IR</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Charli XCX wins a Grammy for </strong><strong><em>Brat </em></strong><strong>(90 percent) — CORRECT CALL&nbsp;</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And…water is wet. Last year, I kept my prediction intentionally open, hence the high percentage confidence here. Out of the eight nominations she received, she won three Grammys: Best Dance Pop Recording for “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwZ1L_0QLjw">Von Dutch</a>,” Best Recording Package, and Best Electronic Dance/Electronic Album. While I hoped she would have won for Best Album, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk-cn1I9VP8&amp;list=PLx9RwGN4X343-YxlAP71jXrT5HnKSIcmW">she’ll always be No. 1 to me</a>. —<em>IR</em></p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Sigal Samuel</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Want to donate to charity? Here are 10 guidelines for giving effectively.]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21728843/best-charities-donate-giving-tuesday" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21728843/best-charities-donate-giving-tuesday</id>
			<updated>2025-12-01T09:56:38-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-12-01T07:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Explainers" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="The Vox guide to giving" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Vox Guides" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Giving to charity is great, not just for the recipients but for the givers, too. But it can be intimidating to know how to pick the best charity when there are thousands of worthy causes to choose from, and especially when so many are suffering around the world. Yet that suffering makes it all the [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p>Giving to charity is great, not just for the recipients but <a href="http://www.vox.com/2014/11/3/6078101/giving-money-away-makes-us-happy">for the givers</a>, too.</p>

<p>But it can be intimidating to know how to pick the best charity when there are thousands of worthy causes to choose from, and especially when so many are suffering around the world.</p>

<p>Yet that suffering makes it all the more clear why giving, and why doing our best to give effectively, is so important. There’s a lot of need out there, and it matters not just whether we give, but how. Effective giving can translate into more lives saved and more lives improved. Even among charities that target the poorest people in developing countries —&nbsp;where charities can typically be most impactful because a dollar goes much further — the most effective charities produce a whopping 100 times more benefit than average charities,&nbsp;<a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2020-63320-004">according to expert estimates</a>.</p>

<p>So this holiday season, we thought it might be helpful to update our annual guide to giving. Think of this as not only a rundown of charity recommendations, but also a broader guide to thinking about how to give. Here are a few simple tips for end-of-year giving that can help.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. Check in with charity recommenders</h2>

<p>It&#8217;s of course possible to research charity options yourself, but you can save some time by outsourcing that labor to a careful, methodologically rigorous charity recommender like <a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities">GiveWell</a>. <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/">Charity Navigator</a> has started following in GiveWell’s footsteps by <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/10/16/21515488/charity-navigator-impact-matters-nonprofit">evaluating charities based on their ability to do the most good</a> at the lowest cost; GiveWell has a longer track record, but <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&amp;cpid=8221">Charity Navigator’s impact scores</a> are worth consulting, too.</p>

<p>GiveWell, which functions somewhat like a grantmaker, currently lists <a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities">four top charities</a>. Its recommendation, if you find it hard to choose among the four, is to donate to the <a href="https://www.givewell.org/maximum-impact-fund">Top Charities Fund</a>, which goes directly to those top charities based on GiveWell’s assessment of where the money is most helpful given the different groups’ funding needs.</p>

<p>The top charities are:</p>

<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/malaria-consortium">Malaria Consortium</a>, which helps distribute preventive antimalarial medication to children (a program known as “seasonal malaria chemoprevention”)</li>



<li><a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/amf">Against Malaria Foundation</a>, which buys and distributes insecticidal bed nets, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa but also in Papua New Guinea</li>



<li><a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/helen-keller-international">Helen Keller Intl</a>, which provides technical assistance to, advocates for, and funds vitamin A supplementation programs in sub-Saharan Africa, which reduce child mortality</li>



<li><a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives">New Incentives</a>, which increases uptake of routine immunizations by offering small cash incentives to families in Nigeria when they get their children vaccinated<strong>  </strong></li>
</ul>

<p class="has-text-align-none">GiveWell chose those charities based on how much good each additional donation would do, not necessarily how good the groups are overall. In other words, these are organizations that can put new funding to use, rather than sitting on it. Other charities do great work, too, but if they’re already decently funded, they might not do the most good with your extra dollar.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Vox guide to giving</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">The holiday season is giving season. This year, Vox is exploring every element of charitable giving —&nbsp;from making the case for donating 10 percent of your income, to recommending specific charities for specific causes, to explaining what you can do to make a difference beyond donations. <a href="https://www.vox.com/charitable-giving">You can find all of our giving guide stories here</a>.</p>
</div>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>

<p>GiveWell also supports novel interventions, but through its <a href="https://www.givewell.org/research/all-grants">All Grants Fund</a>, not its Top Charities Fund. That can mean giving an organization a grant to run a study in order to find out whether a hypothetical future program is feasible, like a <a href="https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/one-acre-fund-tree-rct-january-2023">January 2023 grant</a> to a group in Rwanda to run a randomized evaluation of its program training farmers to grow trees for timber. It can also mean <a href="https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/PATH-malaria-vaccines-January-2022">funding time-sensitive programs</a>, like the rollout of a new malaria vaccine.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23050277/Malaria_Consortium_Sophie_Garcia_Copyright.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A health worker looks on as a mother spoon-feeds the baby on her lap." title="A health worker looks on as a mother spoon-feeds the baby on her lap." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Caregivers are counseled by community health workers in Burkina Faso on how to administer further antimalarial doses at home. | Sophie Garcia/Malaria Consortium" data-portal-copyright="Sophie Garcia/Malaria Consortium" />
<p>It’s worth noting that GiveWell takes disconfirming research seriously. In 2017, it recommended <a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/no-lean-season">Evidence Action’s No Lean Season</a>, which offered no-interest loans to farmers in Bangladesh during the “<a href="https://www.thedailystar.net/op-ed/politics/how-stipends-bus-tickets-can-help-rural-families-overcome-the-hungry-season-1200478">lean season</a>” between planting rice and harvesting it; the loans are conditional on a family member temporarily moving to a city or other area for short-term work. But a subsequent randomized evaluation found that the program <a href="https://blog.givewell.org/2018/11/19/update-on-no-lean-seasons-top-charity-status/#Findings">didn’t actually spur people to migrate or increase their incomes</a>, and GiveWell and Evidence Action then agreed that it should no longer be a top charity. Evidence Action stopped soliciting funds for it and later <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell">shut it down</a> — an unusually scrupulous move for a charity.</p>

<p>(Disclosure: Dylan has been donating to GiveWell since 2010.)</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. Pick charities with research-based strategies</h2>

<p>GiveWell&#8217;s recommendations rely heavily on both evaluations done by charitable organizations and existing research literature on the kind of intervention the charities are trying to conduct.</p>

<p>For example, research from the Poverty Action Lab at MIT suggests that <a href="http://www.povertyactionlab.org/scale-ups/free-insecticidal-bednets">giving away insecticidal bed nets </a>— as the Against Malaria Foundation does — is vastly more effective than charging even small amounts for them.</p>

<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://odi.org/en/publications/cash-transfers-what-does-the-evidence-say-a-rigorous-review-of-impacts-and-the-role-of-design-and-implementation-features/">hundreds of studies</a> have found largely <a href="https://blog.givewell.org/2012/12/26/the-case-for-cash-2/">positive effects for the kind of cash transfers</a> that GiveDirectly, one of GiveWell’s grantees, distributes (even if cash <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/9/10/17827836/cash-basic-income-uganda-study-blattman-charity">has its limits</a>).</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3. If you want to maximize your donation’s impact, give to poorer countries</h2>

<p>It&#8217;s really hard to adequately express how much richer developed nations like the US are than developing ones like Kenya, Uganda, and other countries targeted by GiveWell&#8217;s most effective charities.</p>

<p>The US <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/5/18650492/2019-poverty-2-dollar-a-day-edin-shaefer-meyer">still has extreme poverty</a>, in the living-on-$2-a-day sense, but it&#8217;s comparatively pretty rare and hard to target effectively. The poorest Americans also have access to <a href="https://www.vox.com/health-care" data-source="encore">health care</a> and education systems that, while obviously inferior compared to those enjoyed by rich Americans, are still superior to those of developing countries.</p>

<p>Giving to charities domestically is a commendable thing to do,<strong> </strong>and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/26/opinion/charity-holiday-gift-reproductive-rights.html">many people feel</a> it’s right to give first to the communities they live in. But if you want to get the most bang for your buck in terms of saving lives, reducing illness, or improving overall well-being, you&#8217;re going to want to give to the places with the greatest need and where your additional dollar will do the most good. That means giving outside the US.</p>

<p>Years ago, GiveWell actually looked into a number of US charities, like the <a href="http://www.givewell.org/united-states/charities/nfp">Nurse-Family Partnership</a> program for infants, the <a href="http://www.givewell.org/united-states/charities/kipp">KIPP chain of charter schools</a>, and the <a href="http://www.givewell.org/united-states/charities/HOPE-Program">HOPE job-training program</a>. It found that all were highly effective, but were also<strong> </strong>far more cost-intensive than the best foreign charities. KIPP and the Nurse-Family Partnership cost <a href="http://www.givewell.org/giving101/Your-dollar-goes-further-overseas">more than $10,000 per child served</a>, while a vaccination program like New Incentives in Nigeria costs <a href="https://www.newincentives.org/financials">around $17 per child served</a>.</p>

<p>The Covid-19 pandemic has also <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/global-covid-19/maintain-essential-services-malaria.html#:~:text=Due%20to%20the%20COVID%2D19,related%20supplies%20have%20also%20increased.">taxed health systems in low-income countries</a>, putting pressure on programs designed to fend off other diseases like malaria. Donations to anti-malaria, (non-Covid) vaccination, and vitamin A supplementation programs like the ones recommended by GiveWell can help cushion that blow.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">4. If you do give locally, you can still consider impact</h2>

<p>Although this guide is mostly meant to offer suggestions if you don’t have existing philanthropic interests and are curious for the most efficient ways to help, many people already do have specific causes: They want to give to their own communities, or to causes they’re passionate about for personal reasons (like curing a disease that killed a loved one, for instance). And they often want to use charity as a way to connect with broader trends in the news —&nbsp;by, say, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/3/19/22979793/ukraine-refugee-crisis-how-to-help">donating to help refugees</a>.</p>

<p>It is, of course, admirable to give to your own community and personal causes, and<strong> </strong>a lot has happened in recent years<strong> </strong>to make it easier to find effective ways to give domestically. The group Charity Navigator <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/10/16/21515488/charity-navigator-impact-matters-nonprofit">acquired a nonprofit</a> called ImpactMatters in 2020<strong> </strong>and began incorporating its <a href="https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&amp;cpid=8221">estimates of the bang for the buck provided by charities</a> in several different sectors.</p>

<p>So you can specify that your goal is, say, to provide a night of shelter for a person experiencing homelessness, and Charity Navigator will provide you with a menu of nonprofits and their cost per night of housing. The Nazareth Housing shelter in New York City, for instance, is estimated to provide nightly shelter at less than 200 percent of fair market rent, which is Charity Navigator’s benchmark for reasonable spending on shelter. </p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5. Saving lives isn’t everything</h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23041370/RS21098_P1200734_edited.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A child tilts their head back and opens their mouth so an adult hand can drop in a pill." title="A child tilts their head back and opens their mouth so an adult hand can drop in a pill." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="A child in Côte d’Ivoire receives a dose of vitamin A, which helps build a healthy immune system and protects against blindness and serious illnesses. | Ruth Fertig/&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.hki.org/givingtuesday&quot;&gt;Helen Keller Intl&lt;/a&gt;" data-portal-copyright="Ruth Fertig/&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.hki.org/givingtuesday&quot;&gt;Helen Keller Intl&lt;/a&gt;" />
<p>If you care mainly about reducing early mortality and giving people more years to live, then you should give all your donations to the Malaria Consortium, Helen Keller Intl, or the Against Malaria Foundation. Malaria is a frequently fatal disease, and cost-effective interventions to reduce malaria infection are a great way to save lives. Similarly, vitamin A supplementation, like Helen Keller does, is an effective way of reducing child mortality, as is vaccination (as promoted by New Incentives).</p>

<p>But extending life isn’t the only thing that matters; improving quality of life matters, too.</p>

<p>It’s extremely hard to weigh these interests<strong> </strong>against each other: Is it better to make a donation that can save one child’s life, or, with the same amount of money, to lift multiple families out of extreme poverty? There’s no one right answer to that question. How you answer it depends on <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23862090/subjective-wellbeing-wealth-philanthropy-gdp-happiness-givewell">your philosophical assumptions</a>.</p>

<p>“Philosophical factors can radically alter the cost-effectiveness of life-extending interventions,” writes the Happier Lives Institute, a research center that aims to find evidence-based ways to improve well-being worldwide, in <a href="https://www.happierlivesinstitute.org/report/the-elephant-in-the-bednet/">a 2022 report</a>. To show this, the researchers crunched the numbers to compare the cost-effectiveness of three different charities in terms of how much they boost subjective well-being. Two were life-improving charities:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.givedirectly.org/">GiveDirectly,</a> which gives cash to poor people in countries like Kenya and Uganda to spend as they see fit, and&nbsp;<a href="https://strongminds.org/">StrongMinds</a>, which treats depression in African women using group psychotherapy. The third charity, the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.againstmalaria.com/">Against Malaria Foundation</a>, is mainly life-saving.</p>

<p>Their findings? “On the assumptions most favorable to extending lives, AMF is about 30 percent more cost-effective than StrongMinds.&nbsp;On the assumptions least favorable to extending lives, StrongMinds is around 12 times more cost-effective than AMF.”</p>

<p>So when you’re making your donations, it’s worth thinking not only about quantity of life, but also about quality of life. GiveWell asked recipients themselves how they weigh each of these, and you can read about the results <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/12/20/21009803/givewell-survey-kenya-ghana-saving-lives-poverty">here</a>.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">6. Maybe just give money directly to poor people</h2>

<p>For years, one of our primary charities has been <a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/give-directly">GiveDirectly</a>, which gives unconditional cash transfers. (Sigal has been donating to them every year since 2022.) We’ve given to them partly because there&#8217;s a large body of research on the <a href="http://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/cash-transfers">benefits of cash transfers</a>, which we find quite compelling.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2871156/socialshare.0.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A smiling person holds up their cellphone to show the money transaction on its screen." title="A smiling person holds up their cellphone to show the money transaction on its screen." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="GiveDirectly uses the M-PESA system for mobile cash transfers. | Courtesy of &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.givedirectly.org/&quot;&gt;GiveDirectly&lt;/a&gt;" data-portal-copyright="Courtesy of &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.givedirectly.org/&quot;&gt;GiveDirectly&lt;/a&gt;" />
<p>But we’ve donated to GiveDirectly mostly because we didn’t trust ourselves to know what the world&#8217;s poorest people need most. We&#8217;ve been profoundly lucky to never experience the kind of extreme poverty that billions of people worldwide have to endure. We have <em>no idea</em> what we would spend a cash transfer from GiveDirectly on if we were living on less than $2 a day in Uganda. Would we buy a bednet? Maybe! Or maybe we&#8217;d buy an iron roof. Or school tuition for loved ones. Or cattle.</p>

<p>But you know who does<em> </em>have a good sense of the needs of poor people in Uganda? Poor people in Uganda. They have a very good idea of what they need. Do they sometimes misjudge their spending priorities? Certainly; as do all of us. And bednets appear to be underpurchased relative to the actual need for them. But generally, you should only give something other than cash if you are confident you know the recipients’ needs better than they do. We weren’t confident of that, so we gave cash.</p>

<p>As the World Bank&#8217;s Jishnu Das once <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20131108022355/http://blogs.worldbank.org/futuredevelopment/new-york-times-ethicist-better-economist-economist">put it</a>, “‘Does giving cash work well?’ is a well-defined question only if you are willing to say that ‘well’ is something that WE, the donors, want to define for families whom we have never met and whose living circumstances we have probably never spent a day, let alone a lifetime, in.” If you&#8217;re not willing to say that, then you should strongly consider giving cash.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">7. Don’t give to big charities&#8230;</h2>

<p>You’ll notice that all of the charities GiveWell recommends are reasonably small, and some big names are absent. That’s not an accident. In general, charity effectiveness evaluators are <a href="http://blog.givewell.org/2011/12/28/mega-charities/">skeptical of large relief organizations</a>, for a number of reasons.</p>

<p>Large organizations tend to be less transparent about where their money goes and also likelier to direct money to disaster relief efforts, which are usually <a href="http://www.givewell.org/international/disaster-relief">less cost-effective, in general, than public health programs</a>. “Overall, our impression is that <a href="http://blog.givewell.org/2011/12/28/mega-charities/">your donation to these organizations is very hard to trace</a>, but will likely supplement an agenda of extremely diverse programming, driven largely by governments and other very large funders,” wrote GiveWell co-founder Holden Karnofsky in a 2011 blog post.</p>

<p>Our colleague Kelsey Piper has <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/10/15/17927688/how-to-help-australia-fires-donate-disaster-relief">explained</a> that by the time a disaster has struck, it’s mostly too late to improve disaster relief work. The quality of the immediate response, which includes search-and-rescue and emergency medicine, is determined by choices before the disaster occurs. Investments in improving those capabilities are most effective either before a crisis or well after, during the recovery phase.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">8. …But maybe consider meta-charities</h2>

<p>A different option is giving to groups like GiveWell, <a href="http://www.poverty-action.org/">Innovations for Poverty Action</a>, <a href="https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/invest/">The Life You Can Save</a>, and<strong> </strong><a href="https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/">Giving What We Can</a> that evaluate development approaches and charities, and encourage effective giving. Suppose that every dollar given to Giving What We Can — which encourages people to pledge to donate at least 10 percent of their income until retirement — results in $1.20 in donations to the Against Malaria Foundation. If that’s the case, then you should give to Giving What We Can until the marginal effect on donations to Against Malaria hits $1 or lower.</p>

<p>“If they can turn a dollar of donations into <a href="http://www.jefftk.com/p/metacharities">substantially more than a dollar of increased donations</a> to effective charities, isn’t that the best use of my money?” asks Jeff Kaufman, a software developer who, with his wife Julia Wise, gives about <a href="https://www.jefftk.com/p/2017-donations">half his income to effective charities and meta-charities</a>.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">9. Consider giving to animals</h2>

<p>Alternatively, you could consider giving to non-humans. Animal charities, especially those engaged in corporate pressure campaigns to better the treatment of farm animals, chickens in particular, can be effective in improving <a data-source="encore" href="https://www.vox.com/animal-welfare">animal welfare</a>. The charity evaluations in this area are much younger and less methodologically rigorous than GiveWell’s, but <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/12/3/20992185/animal-welfare-best-charities-factory-farming">Animal Charity Evaluators has named several animal groups</a> that may be effective causes for donations. They range from <a href="https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/the-humane-league/">The Humane League</a>, which specializes in corporate campaigns to improve farm standards, to <a href="https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/wild-animal-initiative/">Wild Animal Initiative</a>, which studies the <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/22325435/animal-welfare-wild-animals-movement">lived experience of animals in the wild</a> and researches ways to ease their suffering.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="http://vox.com/meatless-newsletter"><strong>Sign up for the Meat/Less newsletter course</strong></a></h2>



<p>Want to eat less meat but don’t know where to start? <a href="http://vox.com/meatless-newsletter">Sign up</a> for Vox’s Meat/Less newsletter course. We’ll send you five emails — one per week — full of practical tips and food for thought to incorporate more plant-based food into your diet.</p>
</div>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">10. Give what you can (though if you can spare it, pledging to give 10 percent of your income would be fantastic)</h2>

<p>One of the hardest problems in philanthropy is deciding how much to donate.</p>

<p>There are some people who argue the correct answer, unless you’re near the end of your life, is nothing. You should, in this view, not give to charity during your career, and instead save and invest your money, increasing it as much as possible over time. That way you can give more when you die than you would have if giving continuously over the course of your life.</p>

<p>Another approach is to “earn to give”: Take a high-paying job, typically in finance or tech, and give away a huge share of your earnings, like 40 to 50 percent. But it’s <a href="https://80000hours.org/2015/07/80000-hours-thinks-that-only-a-small-proportion-of-people-should-earn-to-give-long-term/">not the best option </a>for most people, especially if the “earn to give” job is in <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23458282/effective-altruism-sam-bankman-fried-ftx-crypto-ethics">a morally dubious field</a>. And there are a lot of amazing jobs — in scientific research, in the private sector, in direct charity or nonprofit or government employment —&nbsp;where the typical person can do more good through their work than they could by solely<strong> </strong>using their career as a mechanism through which to generate donation money.</p>

<p>So we suggest a more moderate course: You can sign the <a href="https://givingwhatwecan.org">Giving What We Can pledge</a>, which commits members to donating 10 percent of their annual income to highly effective charities, or take a Trial Pledge, which commits members to donating a percentage of their choice — at least 1 percent — to such charities.</p>

<p>Ten percent is a totally reasonable number, comparable to alms in many religions, that <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/9/15/23874111/charity-philanthropy-americans-global-rich">requires relatively minimal sacrifice</a>. (Here’s an <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/12/2/20982600/charity-10-percent-tithe-giving-what-we-can-toby-ord">interview</a> with Toby Ord, who started that pledge.) But even if 10 percent is too much for you, don’t despair. Giving 5 percent or 1 percent is better than giving 0 percent.</p>

<p>Perhaps the most important thing is to just get into the groove of donating, to make it a habit. We use direct deposit on our paychecks to make the most of our charitable contributions, just so it’s extremely automatic and hard for us to avoid doing. Going from not giving to giving a little, regularly, is a huge positive step.</p>

<p><em><strong>Update, December 1, 2025, 7 am ET:</strong> This story, originally published in 2020, has been updated multiple times, most recently for 2025.</em></p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Pratik Pawar</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jessica Craig</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Want to help save the most lives possible? Here’s where to give money.]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/388262/giving-tuesday-guide-global-health-malaria-givewell" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=388262</id>
			<updated>2025-12-01T09:58:09-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-12-01T06:45:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Philanthropy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Public Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="The Vox guide to giving" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[If you want to help human beings alive right now, there are few better places to give than global health. Diseases that have been largely eradicated in the US still claim hundreds of thousands of lives abroad. In 2022, the most recent year for which there’s data, ten Americans died of malaria; all acquired it [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="People reinforcing the shape of a caduceus from within its wings. They are surrounded by various bacteria and health threats." data-caption="Saving lives with donations is possible. | Lorena Spurio for Vox" data-portal-copyright="Lorena Spurio for Vox" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/12/LorenaSpurio_Colours_1.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Saving lives with donations is possible. | Lorena Spurio for Vox	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">If you want to help human beings alive right now, there are few better places to give than global health.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Diseases that have been largely eradicated in the US still claim hundreds of thousands of lives abroad. In 2022, the most recent year for which there’s data, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/php/surveillance-report/2022.html" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/php/surveillance-report/2022.html">ten Americans died of malaria</a>; all acquired it abroad. But the World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, <a href="https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/330011/9789241565721-eng.pdf?page=52" data-type="link" data-id="https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/330011/9789241565721-eng.pdf?page=52">600,000 people died</a> of it that year, most of them children in Africa.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="if-you-don-t-want-to-think-about-individual-charities-at-all-the-simplest-move-is-to-give-to-givewell-top-charities-fund">If you don’t want to think about individual charities at all, the simplest move is to give to <strong>GiveWell Top Charities Fund</strong>.&nbsp;</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">You can stop reading here and feel very good about it. </p>



<p class="has-text-align-none">If you want to see how the sausage is made — and what other high-impact options exist — keep going. Check out the following causes: </p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="#fighting-malaria">Fighting malaria</a></li>



<li><a href="#giving-kids-vitamin-a">Giving kids vitamin A</a></li>



<li><a href="#backing-vaccinations">Backing vaccinations</a></li>



<li><a href="#supporting-local-ngos">Supporting local NGOs</a></li>



<li><a href="#aid-to-sudan">Aid to Sudan</a></li>



<li><a href="#surveillance-to-find-the-next-pandemic">Surveillance to find the next pandemic</a></li>



<li><a href="#ending-lead-poisoning">Ending lead poisoning</a></li>



<li><a href="#combatting-superbugs">Combatting superbugs</a></li>
</ul>
</div>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For a long time, the world was slowly pushing those numbers down. That progress is now at real risk.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2025, the Trump administration effectively dismantled USAID, canceling or gutting thousands of health programs and shifting a skeleton of its staff into the State Department. Other governments around the world have pulled back their funding, too. A <a href="https://www.impactcounter.com/dashboard?view=table&amp;sort=interval_minutes&amp;order=asc">conservative real-time tracker</a> attributes roughly 600,000 deaths so far to the collapse of USAID, with <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01186-9/fulltext">modelling suggesting</a> that if cuts on this scale continues, they could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030 from diseases like malaria, tuberculosis, diarrhea, and respiratory infections.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The weird, hopeful part is that global health interventions are fairly cheap. that&#8217;s how the US and other rich countries succeeded in stamping out these diseases. That is an opportunity for people seeking to give and make others’ lives better: It means that saving a life in a relatively poor country is possible at relatively low cost.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://givewell.org/">GiveWell</a>, our favorite evaluator of global health charities, estimates that the groups it recommends can <a href="https://www.givewell.org/how-much-does-it-cost-to-save-a-life">save a life for $3,500 to $5,500</a>. Put another way, giving $300 a month for a year could be enough to save someone’s life. There are gym memberships that cost more than that. And there’s never been a better time to make a difference as an individual donor to the health and well-being of people around the world.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So if you want to donate to improve<strong> </strong>global health, where should you start? There are too many good causes to list here, but hopefully, the ones below give you some ideas.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="fighting-malaria">Fighting malaria</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">GiveWell, the charity evaluator, currently lists four groups on its <a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities">“top charities” list</a>. Two of them focus on malaria: <a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/amf">Against Malaria Foundation</a> and the <a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/malaria-consortium">Malaria Consortium</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The two groups take two different approaches to preventing malaria transmission, both of which are extremely cost-effective. Against Malaria focuses on funding and distributing insecticide-treated nets, which people in malarial regions (largely sub-Saharan Africa but also parts of South Asia) can sleep under and protect themselves from bites by malaria-carrying mosquitos.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Vox guide to giving</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">The holiday season is giving season. This year, Vox is exploring every element of charitable giving —&nbsp;from making the case for donating 10 percent of your income, to recommending specific charities for specific causes, to explaining what you can do to make a difference beyond donations. <a href="https://www.vox.com/charitable-giving">You can find all of our giving guide stories here</a>.</p>
</div>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The nets themselves are incredibly cheap. GiveWell estimates that <a href="https://www.givewell.org/impact-estimates" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.givewell.org/impact-estimates">Against Malaria</a> can provide a net for 6 each. You may have heard in the news that bednets are sometimes used for other purposes, like <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/1/25/24047975/malaria-mosquito-bednets-prevention-fishing-marc-andreessen">fishing</a>. That’s true. GiveWell estimates, based on past studies and their own research, that about <a href="https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/AMF-LLIN-DRC-June-2024" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/AMF-LLIN-DRC-June-2024">75 percent</a> of nets distributed will be used as intended. And<strong> </strong>the intervention is still incredibly cost-effective. A meta-analysis looking at five randomized studies of bednets found that <a href="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/insecticide-treated-nets#How_do_net_distributions_affect_malaria_cases">mortality from any cause fell by 17 percent</a> among children targeted for bednet distribution (whether they used the nets or not); they were 45 percent less likely to get malaria. The effect on children actually using the nets is, of course, much greater.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The other program GiveWell recommends donating to is the <a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/malaria-consortium">Malaria Consortium’s Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention initiative</a>, which uses another approach to prevent malaria infections. “Chemoprevention” means giving antimalarial medications to at-risk people before they’re bitten by a mosquito, in hopes of preventing a malaria infection. The campaigns are seasonal because in many malarial regions, malaria-carrying mosquitos only thrive and transmit the disease in certain seasons, often during a summer rainy season where there’s more water for mosquitos to breed in.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Seasonal chemoprevention is a newer approach than bednets, but there’s <a href="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/seasonal-malaria-chemoprevention#Reduced_mortality_for_young_children">very strong evidence</a> that it’s effective at stopping malaria transmission. GiveWell cites a <a href="https://www.mmv.org/sites/default/files/uploads/docs/access/SMC_Tool_Kit/publications/Meremikww-ipt-review.pdf">Cochrane Collaboration review</a> of six randomized studies that found that malaria cases among young children fall by 73 percent due to seasonal chemoprevention campaigns. GiveWell itself <a href="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/seasonal-malaria-chemoprevention#Reduced_mortality_for_young_children" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/seasonal-malaria-chemoprevention#Reduced_mortality_for_young_children">extended that review</a> to add two newer studies, and drop an older one that they thought less relevant, and got a similar number: 79<strong> </strong>percent less malaria among young children.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A year of chemoprevention costs very little per person, about <a href="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/seasonal-malaria-chemoprevention#Summary-01">$7 on average</a>. Combining that low cost with that degree of effectiveness makes it a very inexpensive way to save someone’s life.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="giving-kids-vitamin-a">Giving kids vitamin A</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s pretty easy to get enough vitamin A if you’re in a rich country and can easily access leafy greens like spinach or lettuce, or other vegetables like carrots. But in many poor countries, <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10416138/">vitamin A deficiency is a serious problem</a>, which in children can lead to stunting, blindness, or even death.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Thankfully, there’s a simple way to fight vitamin A deficiency: Give people vitamin A. <a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/helen-keller-international">Helen Keller International</a>, a charity founded in 1915 by Keller, the noted deaf-blind writer and activist, is one of the world’s leading groups supporting vitamin A supplementation campaigns, and one of GiveWell’s top recommended charities. It subsidizes governments in affected countries and provides technical support for mass campaigns to distribute vitamin A capsules (about $1 each to deliver) to households with children.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">GiveWell recommends Helen Keller because vitamin A supplementation, in their view, significantly reduces child mortality, by about 4 to 12 percent. They <a href="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/vitamin-A#Reduced_mortality_for_young_children">base this</a>, as with their malaria judgments, on a <a href="https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD008524.pub3/epdf/full">Cochrane meta-analysis</a>, which, depending on assumptions used, concluded that vitamin A supplementation reduces mortality by between 12 and 24 percent. That said, the largest study included there <a href="https://files.givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/Interventions/Vitamin%20A/Awasthi_etal_2013a_VitaminASupplementation.pdf">produced a much smaller estimate</a> (4 percent). GiveWell leans conservative, <a href="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/vitamin-A">assuming that</a>, over time, with better global nutrition, the impact is likely on the lower end of that spectrum.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But even a 4 percent drop in mortality for $1 is a stunningly good deal. What&#8217;s more, vitamin A supplementation has other benefits. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It can prevent blindness and stunting, helping children grow up with healthy vision and to healthy heights and weights, which could <a href="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/vitamin-A#Long-term_income_increases">translate into higher incomes</a> and other benefits as an adult. Though the evidence here is less voluminous than on mortality, it&#8217;s important to remember that there&#8217;s more to global health than just preventing deaths. Vitamin A can prevent deaths, but it also makes the lives it saves easier and more fulfilling.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="backing-vaccinations">Backing vaccinations</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A landmark 2024<strong> </strong>study from the WHO suggested that in the past fifty years, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24138291/do-vaccines-work-explained-study-efficacy-evidence">vaccines have saved 154 million lives</a>, the vast majority of children under 5. Yet vaccine-preventable illnesses like <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/369095/hepatitis-vaccine-deaths-symptoms-infections">hepatitis A and B</a> or <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099(24)00176-2&amp;page=18">streptococcus pneumoniae</a> still kill millions every year. Expanding access to the vaccines we already have can be as important as developing new ones.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But reaching the so-called last mile of hard-to-reach populations not currently being vaccinated can be difficult. <a href="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/new-incentives" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/new-incentives">New Incentives</a>, the fourth and final charity recommended by GiveWell, tries a simple method to reach them: offering money. It gives cash incentives of around $5-8 to parents and other adults in northern Nigeria as an incentive to get <a href="https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives#Vaccines_incentivized">vaccinated against</a> against measles, pneumococcal disease, tuberculosis, and the five diseases the pentavalent vaccine protects against (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, and Hib).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A <a href="https://files.givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/NewIncentives/IDinsight_Impact_Evaluation_of_New_Incentives_Final_Report.pdf">randomized trial</a> of New Incentives&#8217;s programs released in 2020 found that overall, children targeted by the program were <a href="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/new-incentives#How_much_does_the_program_increase_vaccination_rates">22 percentage points more likely to be vaccinated</a>: 36 percent of children in the control group were immunized, compared to 58 percent in the group receiving incentives. And the program has rapidly scaled. By 2023, New Incentives had <a href="https://www.givewell.org/research/lookbacks/New-Incentives-2025#How_did_implementation">enrolled over</a> 1.5 million infants.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Even if you suspect the actual impact isn’t quite that significant, the program is extremely cost-effective; roughly 9 to 18 percentage points according to GiveWell’s estimates. And that cost-effectiveness has actually improved. Due to the devaluation of the Nigerian currency Naira in 2024 and 2025, a US dollar now funds significantly more incentives than before.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="supporting-local-ngos">Supporting local NGOs</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Empowering and funding local, community-based organizations — as opposed to large, global agencies such as the World Health Organization or the Red Cross — helps create a more nimble, sustainable, and culturally relevant aid environment. Local organizations not only have a better understanding of local needs, but they can respond faster to emergencies.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But in late 2025, this has become more complicated. For years, agencies like USAID pledged to shift 25 percent of their funding to local partners. With the dissolution of USAID and the retreat of major Western donors this year, those pledges have evaporated. The agencies are gone, leaving local groups as the primary — and often only — safety net for their communities.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Here are some local NGOs working to address challenges from health care and gender-based violence to unemployment and social development:&nbsp;</p>

<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://taimaka.org/">Taimaka</a> is a Nigerian nonprofit in the Gombe State that treats children with severe malnutrition through community health workers, shifting care from crowded hospitals. They use a simple app to diagnose and track kids in their villages, treating a child for roughly $94 — less than half what standard programs cost — and early estimates suggest that it saves lives at around the same cost as the best-known malaria charities. My colleague Sigal Samuel wrote more about their work <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/468551/child-hunger-malnutrition-taimaka-future-perfect-25">here</a>.</li>



<li>For 19<strong> </strong>years, <a href="https://www.rwamrec.org/">Rwanda Men’s Resource Centre</a> has worked to teach healthy masculinity, promote gender equality, and reduce gender-based violence. For the past five years, gender-based violence has been steadily <a href="https://www.ecoi.net/en/document/2101192.html">rising</a> in the east African country. According to 2020 survey data, almost 40 percent of girls and women aged 15–49 years have experienced physical, sexual, or psychological violence. The NGO has a variety of training programs and community engagement events that teach couples and young people how to resolve conflict and cohabitate peacefully, improve communication and joint decision-making, and to leverage new tools to improve financial instability. </li>



<li><a href="https://afyaresearch.org/about-us/">Afya Research Africa</a> is a Kenyan NGO working toward universal health coverage by providing affordable primary care in rural communities. The organization funds door-to-door health services and supports brick-and-mortar health clinics and pharmacies. Afya also provides rare funding for its clinicians to conduct locally relevant research.</li>
</ul>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="aid-to-sudan">Aid to Sudan</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Sudan <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/467671/sudan-civil-war-space-rsf-famine-explained" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/467671/sudan-civil-war-space-rsf-famine-explained">continues to face</a> the most devastating humanitarian crisis in the world. For more than a year, the country has been embroiled in a <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23712710/sudan-war-khartoum-burhan-hemedt-rsf">civil war</a> that has displaced nearly 12 million<s>s</s> people, pushed entire communities<strong> </strong>into famine, and crippled the national banking, health care, and telecommunications systems. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And yet, the conflict remains one of the most neglected in the world. As of November, the United Nations has received <a href="https://fts.unocha.org/plans/1220/summary">only about a third</a> of the humanitarian funding it requested earlier this year — leaving a gap of nearly $2.8 billion.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Meanwhile, staff from international aid and human rights groups have repeatedly faced challenges <a href="https://www.rescue.org/article/crisis-sudan-what-happening-and-how-help">accessing</a> the most fragile parts of the country while other organizations have been forced to <a href="https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2023/08/01/exclusive-sudanese-aid-workers-face-hundreds-job-losses">lay off</a> local aid workers due to insecurity and budgetary constraints. These local and international NGOs are still working to fill critical gaps across Sudan and in neighboring countries hosting refugees from Sudan:</p>

<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Doctors Without Borders (MSF) provides health services to thousands of people across Sudan despite recurrent attacks against health care workers and health clinics. MSF doctors and nurses have treated tens of thousands of people facing malnutrition to avert famine-related deaths. The NGO is also working to quell a <a href="https://www.msf.org/war-fuels-cholera-outbreak-across-sudan" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.msf.org/war-fuels-cholera-outbreak-across-sudan">cholera outbreak</a> and to ramp up care for malnutritioned children and expecting <a href="https://www.msf.org/sudan-pregnant-women-and-children-dying-shocking-numbers-south-darfur">mothers</a> who are dying from preventable infectious diseases. In many places, MSF clinics are the only functioning health care facilities still caring for people. </li>



<li>The <a href="https://sapa-usa.org/">Sudanese American Physicians Association</a> (SAPA) is a lifeline for the country’s collapsing health system. This diaspora-led group uses its network to fund and supply hospitals that have been abandoned by the state. They provide salaries for local doctors who haven&#8217;t been paid in years and source critical supplies for surgeries and maternity care.</li>



<li><a href="https://www.wearealight.org/sudan">Alight</a> is a local group providing health care across five Sudanese states. Currently, the organization runs 42 primary health clinics, a field hospital, and four mobile health facilities. The NGO recently launched a program to feed mothers who give birth in severely resource-limited refugee camps.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="surveillance-to-find-the-next-pandemic">Surveillance to find the next pandemic</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Most years, the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/11/07/g-s1-30783/tb-tuberculosis-deadliest-infectious-disease-covid">deadliest infectious disease in the world is tuberculosis</a>, a brutal bacterium that’s also frustratingly expensive to eradicate (which is why none of GiveWell’s top charities <a href="https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/mass-screen-and-treatment-programs-tuberculosis">target it</a>). But in 2020, 2021, and 2022, there was a new deadliest-disease, and you can probably guess its name: Covid-19.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">All told, the Sars-Cov-2 virus has <a href="https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/deaths?n=o">killed over 7 million people</a>, with estimates of “excess deaths” (including deaths due to disruptions to the economy and health care access, and ones due to Covid but not reported as such) <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates">reaching into 20 to 30 million</a>. The world spent untold trillions to fight the pandemic. It would have been much more humane, and cheaper, to have prevented it in the first place.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Ultimately, pandemic monitoring and prevention is the job of governments rather than charities, but there are nonetheless some valuable groups working to prevent a repeat of the Covid experience. One is the <a href="https://naobservatory.org/">Nucleic Acid Observatory</a>, a project developing ways to surveil wastewater and other sources and notice when novel pathogens start showing up. The technologies they&#8217;re helping to build could help us catch things like Covid weeks or months earlier, and give us time to squash them before they become full-fledged pandemics.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="ending-lead-poisoning">Ending lead poisoning</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22834666/lead-exposure-poisoning-developing-countries">Lead poisoning</a> has, historically, been a major blind spot in the global health world. The extent of the problem is enormous: A <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(20)30278-3/fulltext">landmark study</a> found that about half of children in poor countries are exposed to very high levels of lead. At least <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/lead-poisoning-and-health">1.5 million people die</a> annually from cardiovascular diseases (like heart disease) caused by lead poisoning, imposing a global economic cost of about <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(23)00166-3/fulltext">$6 trillion a year</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But the resources devoted to preventing lead poisoning were minimal. One <a href="https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/global-lead-exposure-report">estimate in 2021</a> found that charities and nongovernmental organizations were spending between&nbsp; $6 and 10 million a year on the problem. That’s less than two cents per child poisoned by lead.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While there are several worthwhile charities working on this issue, I (Dylan) recommend in particular <a href="https://www.pureearth.org/">Pure Earth</a>, which has been a leader on lead and metal contamination for decades; the <a href="https://leadelimination.org/">Lead Exposure Elimination Project</a>, which has been influential in fighting lead paint specifically in developing countries; and the <a href="https://www.cgdev.org/publication/call-action-end-childhood-lead-poisoning-worldwide-neglected-top-tier-development">Center for Global Development</a>, which has become the center of lead policy in the global health world and helped make the issue a bigger priority in recent years.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading" id="combatting-superbugs">Combatting superbugs</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Researchers estimated that more than <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02724-0/fulltext?mkt_tok=NDkwLUVIWi05OTkAAAGCOwuIZk6PC62ka11T3aZOVQ4bGfdDtfrsMK0TZRNysKlXpBt2Ki44YMDQkmCs6r9ZTVnfOJb4dOfOJHV7uPHuCC4uZKs87QwUCxNFKMtQhwFe">1 million</a> people died globally from antibiotic-resistant infections in 2019. Despite the emerging crisis, antibiotic research and development has long stalled. No large US or European pharmaceutical company is working to develop new antibiotics.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Fortunately, a small but growing group of researchers and clinicians has been working to revive a decades-old treatment for drug-resistant infections: <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/373174/phage-therapy-antiobiotic-resistance-africa-innovation">bacteriophages</a>, viruses that target and kill bacteria. Phage therapy is starting to make inroads in the US and Europe, though clinicians still have to request emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration, or equivalent agencies, before the treatment can be used. Today, there are some <a href="https://clinicaltrials.gov/search?intr=Bacteriophage">80 clinical trials</a> for phage therapy in the US alone.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But while phage therapy is gaining ground in developed countries, many developing countries in Africa and Asia are falling behind, even though the burden of drug-resistant infections is highest in these countries. A lack of regulatory agencies to review and approve the treatment is one major barrier. Another is an absence of local manufacturing infrastructure, which has hindered local drug development in developing countries for years.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Researchers consistently demonstrate that phage therapy is safe and effective for treating drug-resistant infections, even those caused by bacteria that no known antibiotics can treat. What is needed now is for the phage therapy technology and expertise to be transferred to developing countries.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That is the mission of <a href="https://www.phagesforglobalhealth.org/">Phages for Global Health</a>, an NGO run by Tobi Nagel and an international team of physician researchers. The organization trains laboratory technologists in Africa and Asia to study phages in their labs and partners with institutes to conduct research and develop new phage products that can be used, for instance, to prevent and quell cholera outbreaks and decontaminate poultry products to prevent foodborne illness.</p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The massive stakes of the big federal housing bill, explained]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/462809/federal-housing-bill-scott-warren-road-to-housing-act" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=462809</id>
			<updated>2025-09-26T13:07:29-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-09-26T08:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Housing" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The US has a lot of layers of government. Some would say too many. I would say too many. Here in Washington, DC, we mercifully only have a city government and a federal government, but you state-dwellers often have to juggle a state government, a county government, a municipal government, and sometimes school districts and [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="Tim Scott and Elizabeth Warren during a hearing" data-caption="The two leaders of the Senate housing push: Senate Banking Committee chair Tim Scott (R-SC) and ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/09/gettyimages-2234048800.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	The two leaders of the Senate housing push: Senate Banking Committee chair Tim Scott (R-SC) and ranking member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">The US has a lot of layers of government. Some would say too many. I would say too many. Here in Washington, DC, we mercifully only have a city government and a federal government, but you state-dwellers often have to juggle a state government, a county government, a municipal government, and sometimes school districts and other political entities that sit somewhere between these levels.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This diffusion of responsibility has been a disaster for housing in the US. When an apartment building goes up, that creates substantial benefits to those moving in (they have a home!); significant but more modest benefits to the broader metro area in the form of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10511482.2024.2418044">lower rents</a> than absent construction, and <a href="https://www.mercatus.org/research/research-papers/new-urban-econ-research-shows-macroeconomic-benefits-big-cities">long-run economic growth from geographic clustering of top industries</a>. It also brings some concentrated local costs to neighbors in the form of increased foot and vehicle traffic and more noise.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In aggregate, the benefits almost certainly swamp the costs, but decisions are often made at the exact level where those bearing most of the costs have disproportionate sway. In cities with “<a href="https://www.city-journal.org/article/ending-member-privilege">aldermanic privilege</a>,” for instance, members of the city council get effective vetoes over what housing gets built in their district. Their voters care more about the nuisance of traffic and limited parking from new construction than about the long-run economic health of the region, or the interests of newcomers, and they respond rationally by strangling housing development. New York Mayor Eric Adams put some very worthwhile measures on this November’s city ballot that would weaken this privilege in New York, and unsurprisingly, <a href="https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2025/09/10/adrienne-adams-rails-against-housing-ballot-measures/">the council is screaming bloody murder</a>.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This story was first featured in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Future Perfect newsletter</a>.</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">Sign up <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">here</a> to explore the big, complicated problems the world faces and the most efficient ways to solve them. Sent twice a week.</p>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">This helps explain why some of the most positive changes in housing policy in recent years have happened at the state rather than the local level. States are often able to capture more of the benefits from housing growth than individual cities, and certainly than individual city council districts, which has led some to overrule local zoning rules to mandate municipalities to allow more construction.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Tina Kotek, then speaker of the Oregon House and now the state’s governor, was a real innovator here, shepherding through in <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/01/737798440/oregon-legislature-votes-to-essentially-ban-single-family-zoning">2019 a measure requiring large cities</a> in the state to allow at least two units of housing on all land parcels, effectively ending single-family-only zoning. San Francisco’s state Sen. Scott Wiener, with the occasional but inconsistent support of Gov. Gavin Newsom, has notched a lot of wins with this strategy too, most recently the <a href="https://cayimby.org/legislation/sb-79/">passage of SB 79</a> to legalize up to six-floor apartment buildings near transit. (The bill is still awaiting Newsom’s signature.) But <a href="https://www.apslaw.com/its-your-business/2025/01/22/historic-housing-bill-changes-residential-zoning-law-in-massachusetts/">Massachusetts</a>, <a href="https://www.theurbanist.org/2024/02/06/state-improves-model-code-to-promote-middle-housing/">Washington</a>, <a href="https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/07/2025-updates-to-floridas-live-local-act">Florida</a>, <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-signs-laws-to-combat-statewide-housing-crisis-in-austin">Texas</a>, and <a href="https://www.governing.com/urban/montanas-housing-push-continues-we-made-it-a-republican-issue">Montana</a>, <a href="https://www.mercatus.org/research/policy-briefs/framing-futures-pro-housing-legislation-goes-vertical-2025">among others</a>, have gotten in on the action too.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Let’s get federal</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But it’s worth noting that most of those state preemptions are quite modest, and efforts for more ambitious state action have often fallen short.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The classic case is New York state: In 2023, Gov. Kathy Hochul pushed an <a href="https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2023/01/hochul-wants-build-800k-housing-units-over-next-decade-how-do-you-do/381381/">ambitious plan to upzone</a> aggressively enough to allow construction of 800,000 new homes, only to <a href="https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2023/11/hochul-abandon-required-construction-mandates-ambitious-housing-plan/392350/">abandon it late in the year</a> in the face of overwhelming opposition in the suburbs. Most observers interpreted the capitulation as an effort to avoid an anti-Democratic party revolt in places like Westchester County or the Hudson Valley, which feature a number of swing House districts that Dems needed to get a majority.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Across the country in Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs last year <a href="https://azmirror.com/briefs/hobbs-vetoes-bill-designed-to-jumpstart-starter-home-construction-in-az-citing-unintended-consequences/">vetoed a much less ambitious housing bill</a>, citing vague “unintended consequences” it would cause.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">All of which is to say: While state-level politics tend to be more pro-housing than at the local level, they can still be pretty hostile.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Of course, there’s a whole other level of US government that could get involved: the federal government.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The feds have a decent amount of experience preempting local land use rules. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_Gas_Act_of_1938">Natural Gas Act</a> of 1938, for instance, <a href="https://www.abralliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Know_Your_Rights-Strategies-Carolyn_Elefant.pdf#page=20">preempts states and localities</a> from regulating certain aspects of interstate gas pipeline construction and siting, instead having them participate in a process run by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). A town that doesn’t want a pipeline can raise a stink in the FERC consultations, but they generally can’t pass a zoning law that just bans the pipeline from the town. Lawyer <a href="https://x.com/mucha_carlos/status/1569782704169750528?lang=en">Carlos Mucha</a>, a specialist in zany schemes whose most famous is the <a href="https://www.vox.com/22711346/trillion-dollar-coin-mintthecoin-debt-ceiling-beowulf">trillion-dollar coin plan to beat the debt ceiling</a>, likes to point out that the Federal Communications Commission has <a href="https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R46736">preempted basically all local zoning</a> when it comes to cellphone tower construction.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But generally speaking, outright preemption seems far outside the realm of <a href="https://www.slowboring.com/p/can-uncle-sam-fix-the-cost-of-living">actions Congress would seriously consider on housing</a>. Things on the menu are more in the genre of “give towns a little grant if they adopt this good policy,” or “hire more staff at the Department of Housing and Urban Development to help states make good policy.” The Federation of American Scientists put out a call for proposals for <a href="https://fas.org/accelerator/housing-supply-ideas-challenge/">specifically federal actions that could boost housing supply</a>, and while the list they came up with includes a lot of ideas I like a lot, none seem really at the scale needed to put a dent in the problem.</p>

<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p>What’s powerful about this idea is that it cuts through the tangle of rules created by the fractured nature of American government, while also allowing cities and towns to sharply limit the scope of the reform to minimize backlash.</p></blockquote></figure>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Many of the ideas in the FAS list are also in the <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-road-to-housing-act-of-2025/?gad_source=1&amp;gad_campaignid=18198178295&amp;gbraid=0AAAAAowcQIlMuP4NaTUEAFynCsp5Cw2dW&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQjwrc7GBhCfARIsAHGcW5Vp3dXpmFroJ7XRzb-J_V6A4p9d3wvX_z3TZRBAyodbkSch_3_BpFMaAul-EALw_wcB">ROAD to Housing Act</a>, spearheaded by Senate Banking committee chair <a href="https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/scott-warren-lead-banking-committee-in-unanimously-advancing-comprehensive-housing-legislation">Tim Scott</a> (R-SC) and ranking member <a href="https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/warren-statement-on-bipartisan-housing-package-advancing-unanimously-out-of-banking-committee">Elizabeth Warren</a> (D-MA). If that pair of backers isn’t surprising enough, consider that the bill passed their committee unanimously in July.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">My initial reaction to the bill was that if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. The package seemed full of modest steps in the right direction, like <a href="https://fas.org/publication/manufactured-home-chassis-requirement/">getting rid of the “chassis requirement”</a> that has slowed down efforts to build houses and apartment buildings en masse in factories.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But ultimately, this bill so far has unanimous Senate support. Usually, achieving that unanimity means that the bill isn’t too threatening to anybody —&nbsp;and truly transformational changes to zoning, to how people’s neighborhoods look and are built and change, are definitely going to threaten <em>some</em> people.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The case for optimism</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The team at the Economic Innovation Group think tank makes a strong case, though, that I’m being too cynical. They don’t think the ROAD to Housing Act is epochal, earth-shaking legislation either —&nbsp;but they think it contains the rudiments of a federal approach <a href="https://eig.org/the-era-of-federal-zoning-reform-has-arrived/">that really could be a huge deal</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The researchers — Jess Remington, Adam Ozimek, and Carol Neuhardt — focus specifically on two things the bill does. The first is to encourage the federal government to develop model zoning codes for urban, suburban, and rural municipalities to adopt. These codes are, under the bill, supposed to allow denser building through features like eliminating mandatory parking allowance, lowering minimum lot sizes, and legalizing multi-unit buildings on land typically used for single-family houses.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The second component is that the act effectively pays municipalities that meaningfully boost their housing supply. One provision, the Innovation Fund, <a href="https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/road_to_housing_act_of_2025_legislative_text.pdf#page=67">distributes about $200 million total per year</a> to cities that adopt zoning reforms and have seen faster housing supply growth. The <a href="https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/warren-kennedy-introduce-new-bipartisan-build-now-act-to-incentivize-communities-to-increase-housing-supply">Build Now Act</a>, another provision, would slash some Community Development Block Grant funds currently going to areas with high rents that aren&#8217;t building enough housing, and redirect the money to areas that <em>are</em> building enough.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On their own, these seem like the kind of provisions that I was just dismissing as nice but insufficient. But Remington, Ozimek, and Neuhardt argue that they combine to look like a much bolder idea that their team at EIG has been pushing for a while: “<a href="https://eig.org/density-zones/">Right-to-Build Zones</a>.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Reaching for what he calls a “Dylan Matthews-friendly analogy,” Ozimek told me to think of them like the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_economic_zones_of_China">special economic zones</a> that Deng Xiaoping set up in southern China in the 1980s. (He’s got me pegged — I do love this analogy.) After three decades of catastrophic Maoism, China had adopted too many different bad economic policies to repeal one at a time. So Deng instead carved out a few small areas and let them start from scratch: in these small spots, and only these spots, they could work under a totally different and freer regime than the rest of China. Those areas, like the now mega-city of Shenzhen, then grew like gangbusters, enabling Deng to spread the reforms across the whole nation.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Right-to-Build Zones would see the federal government create a model zoning code that is intentionally much, much less restrictive than that in most cities; cities and towns could choose to adopt these codes, but only for specific neighborhoods if they want; the municipalities would then receive payments for each new home built under the code. Developers could then exploit these much simpler legal regimes and concentrate their building in the designated special zones.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What’s powerful about this idea is that it cuts through the tangle of rules created by the fractured nature of American government, while also allowing cities and towns to sharply limit the scope of the reform to minimize backlash. If the federal government wanted, say, Washington, DC, to allow for no-parking, 10-story apartment buildings to be constructed, by right, anywhere in the city — well, at the very least, they’d have to give us a <em>lot</em> of money to get the mayor and council to agree. But if DC could limit the new rules to a specific, small slice of area where housing is more popular and desired by neighbors, that minimizes NIMBY opposition while making construction meaningfully easier where it’s welcomed. DC could do this on its own, of course — but it’s easier to do when the feds are explicitly inviting it, and limiting the reform to one specific area is easier to justify in that context than as part of a city council bill.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The ROAD to Housing Act includes a lot of the rudiments of this approach, Remington and team note. It asks for the federal government to create model zoning policies, like the ones that Right-to-Build Zones would adopt. It creates financial incentives for more housing growth and better local policies. Even better, they told me, would be to explicitly tie some kind of financial incentive to cities that adopt, at least in certain neighborhoods, the model zoning policies. The bill has incentives for actual building outcomes, but the incentives aren’t tied to the model zoning rules that the EIG team thinks are so central (the bill’s incentives are also based on housing <em>already</em> built, running the risk of rewarding cities for housing they would’ve built anyway).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If the adoption of new zoning rules were incentivized, it would push cities to truly create clean regulatory slates for new buildings, rather than tinkering around the edges. There’s also less emphasis in the Senate bill on designating specific areas within cities as places to boost housing supply.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So it’s still unclear exactly how close to a special housing zone vision the Senate’s big bipartisan package will get. But that it gets close at all gives me hope. Maybe the unobjectionable bill that every senator likes has some teeth after all.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>This story was supported by a grant from Arnold Ventures. Vox had full discretion over the content of this reporting.</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[We’ve been wrong about new technology before. Are we wrong about AI?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/461927/ai-study-openai-anthropic-claude" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=461927</id>
			<updated>2025-09-24T11:42:34-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-09-19T06:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Artificial Intelligence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Innovation" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The year is 1956. You’re a researcher working at International Business Machines, the world’s leading tabulating machine company, which has recently diversified into the brand-new field of electronic computers. You have been tasked with determining for what purposes, exactly, your customers are using IBM’s huge mainframes. The answer turns out to be pretty simple: Computers [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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											<![CDATA[

						
<figure>

<img alt="ChatGPT on App Store displayed on a phone screen is seen on September 14, 2025." data-caption="ChatGPT on App Store displayed on a phone screen is seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on September 14, 2025. | Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/09/gettyimages-2234913410.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	ChatGPT on App Store displayed on a phone screen is seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland on September 14, 2025. | Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">The year is 1956. You’re a researcher working at International Business Machines, the world’s leading tabulating machine company, which has recently diversified into the brand-new field of electronic computers. You have been tasked with determining for what purposes, exactly, your customers are using IBM’s huge mainframes.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This story was first featured in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Future Perfect newsletter</a>.</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">Sign up <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">here</a> to explore the big, complicated problems the world faces and the most efficient ways to solve them. Sent twice a week.</p>
</div>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The answer turns out to be pretty simple: Computers are for the military, and for the military alone. In 1955, the year before, by far the biggest single revenue source for IBM’s computer division was the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-Automatic_Ground_Environment">SAGE Project</a>, a Defense Department initiative tasking IBM with creating a computer system capable of providing early warnings across the United States should nuclear-armed Soviet bombers attack the country. That brought in $47 million in 1955, and other military projects brought in $35 million. Programmable computers sold to businesses, meanwhile, brought in a paltry $12 million.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">You send a memo to your boss explaining that computers’ impact on society will primarily be in giving the US an edge on the Soviets in the Cold War. The impact on the private sector, by contrast, seems minor. You lean back in your chair, light a cigarette, and ponder the glorious future of the defense-industrial complex.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">You would, of course, be totally wrong — not just in the far future but in the very immediate one. Here’s what revenue looked like from each of IBM’s computing divisions in 1952 through 1964, compiled by company veteran <a href="https://direct.mit.edu/books/monograph/2730/Building-IBMShaping-an-Industry-and-Its-Technology">Emerson Pugh in his book <em>Building IBM</em></a>:</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/09/Emerson-W.-Pugh-Building-IBM_-Shaping-an-Industry-and-Its-Technology-1995-The-MIT-Press.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Appendix D in a history of IBM, showing company revenues from different forms of computing" title="Appendix D in a history of IBM, showing company revenues from different forms of computing" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Emerson Pugh, &lt;em&gt;Building IBM&lt;/em&gt;." />
<p class="has-text-align-none">A mere two years after 1956, programmable computers sold to private companies had matched SAGE as a revenue source. The year after that, the private sector was bringing in as much as the military as a whole. By 1963, not even a decade after the 1955 data you were looking at, the military appears to be a rounding error next to IBM’s ballooning private computer revenues, which have grown to account for a majority of the company’s entire US revenue.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Whoops!</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What can we learn from how people are using AI right now?</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This week, impressive teams of economists at both <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w34255">OpenAI</a> and <a href="https://www.anthropic.com/research/anthropic-economic-index-september-2025-report">Anthropic</a> released big, carefully designed reports on how people are using their AI models —&nbsp;and one of my first thoughts was, “I wonder what an IBM report on how people used their first computers would’ve looked like.” (Disclosure: Vox Media is one of several publishers that have signed partnership agreements with OpenAI. Our reporting remains editorially independent. Also, Future Perfect is funded in part by the BEMC Foundation, whose major funder was also an early investor in Anthropic; they don’t have any editorial input into our content.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">To be clear: The level of care the AI firms’ teams put into their work is many, many orders of magnitude greater than that shown by our fictional IBM analyst. Revenue isn’t the best measure of actual customer interest and use; everyone knew even in 1955 that computers were improving rapidly and their uses would change; the AI firms have access to an impressive array of real-time data on how their products are used that would have made the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_J._Watson">Watson</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_J._Watson_Jr.">family</a> running IBM salivate.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That said, I think the IBM example is useful for clarifying what, exactly, we want to get out of this kind of data.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The AI firms’ reports are most useful at giving us a point-in-time snapshot, and a recent history over a couple of years, of what kind of queries are being sent to ChatGPT and Claude. You might have <a href="https://link.vox.com/view/6827a6294cfe5416df0e96f5orh4x.1iso/b6d0fe12">read my colleague Shayna Korol</a> in Wednesday’s Future Perfect newsletter laying out the OpenAI findings, and I also recommend the study co-author and Harvard professor <a href="https://forklightning.substack.com/p/how-people-use-chatgpt">David Deming’s summary</a> <a href="https://forklightning.substack.com/p/chatgpt-really-does-offer-mundane">posts</a>. But some big picture, nontrivial things I’ve learned from the two reports are:</p>

<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Uptake is skyrocketing: ChatGPT has gone from 1 million registered users in December 2022, to 100 million people using it at least weekly by November 2023, to over 750 million weekly active users now. If the number of messages sent to it keeps growing at the current pace, there will be more ChatGPT queries than Google searches by the end of next year.</li>



<li>Both OpenAI and Anthropic find that richer countries are using AI more than poor ones (no surprise there), but OpenAI intriguingly finds that middle-income countries like Brazil use ChatGPT nearly as much as rich ones like the US.</li>



<li>The <a href="https://forklightning.substack.com/p/chatgpt-really-does-offer-mundane">biggest use cases for ChatGPT</a> were &#8220;practical advice&#8221; like how-tos or tutoring/teaching (28.3 percent of queries), editing or translating or otherwise generating text (28.1 percent), and search engine-style information queries (21.3 percent). Anthropic uses different descriptive categories but finds that people using Claude.ai, the ChatGPT-like interface for its models, most commonly use it for computing and math problems (36.9 percent of usage), while an increasing share use it for &#8220;educational instruction and library&#8221; work (12.7 percent).</li>
</ul>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What <em>can’t</em> we learn?</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But I’m greedy. I don’t just want to know the first-order descriptive facts about how these models are used, even though those are the kinds of questions these papers, and the internal data that OpenAI and Anthropic collect more generally, can answer. The questions I really want answered about AI usage, and its economic ramifications, are more like:</p>

<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Will <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23787024/power-progress-book-ai-history-future-economy-daron-acemoglu-simon-johnson">human and AI labor be complements or substitutes</a> for each other in five years? Ten years? Twenty?</li>



<li>Will <a href="https://asteriskmag.com/issues/03/the-great-inflection-a-debate-about-ai-and-explosive-growth">wages go up because the economy is still bottlenecked</a> on things only humans can do? Or will they collapse to zero because those bottlenecks don’t exist?</li>



<li>Will AI enable the creation of “<a href="https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace">geniuses in data centers</a>” — AI agents doing their own scientific research? Will this lead the stock of scientific knowledge about the world to grow faster than ever before? Will that lead to <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24108787/ai-economic-growth-explosive-automation">explosive economic growth</a>?</li>
</ul>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Many people are asking these questions, and an impressive amount of theoretical work has been done in economics already on them. I’ve found <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hS-Pu0gq22IwB9mWeig8Ui9kvUITgHj9eH3ik2zNVpo/edit?tab=t.0">this set of lecture slides and paper citations on the subjects from the economist Philip Trammell</a> very useful.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But that theoretical work is mostly in the form of, “what are some concepts that we could use to make sense of what is happening or will shortly happen?” —&nbsp;it’s theory, that’s the point! —&nbsp;and thus leaves a greedy, impatient man like myself without good answers, or even particularly good guesses, at the above questions. It’s a place where I want good empirical research to give me a sense of which theoretical frameworks are corresponding to ground reality.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">My fear is that, for reasons the IBM parable explains, empirical details about how AI is being used now can mislead us about how it will be used in the future, and about its most important effects on our lives. If you cryogenically froze our IBM analyst in 1956 and resurrected them today to analyze the OpenAI and Anthropic reports, what would they say about the more speculative questions above?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">They might point to the fact that the ChatGPT study found about half of all messages correspond to a pretty small number of &#8220;work activities,&#8221; as tracked by the Department of Labor, like &#8220;documenting/recording information&#8221; and &#8220;making decisions and solving problems.&#8221; Those are big categories for sure, but people have to do a lot else in their work that doesn&#8217;t fall under them. Our IBM analyst might conclude that AI is only automating a pretty small share of work tasks, meaning that human and AI labor will complement each other going forward.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Then again, the analyst could look at the Anthropic report which found that &#8220;automation&#8221; use cases (where you just tell Claude to do something and it does the whole task, perhaps with periodic human feedback) are vastly more common among businesses using Anthropic&#8217;s backend to program their own specific Claude-enabled routines than &#8220;augmentation&#8221; use cases (where you ask Claude for feedback or for learning, etc., and work in concert with it). Augmentation still makes up a bigger share of usage on the <a href="http://claude.ai/">Claude.ai</a> website, but the automation share is growing there too. Our analyst might look at this and conclude that AI and human labor will wind up as substitutes, as Claude users are using it less as a sidekick than as an agent doing work on its own.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">All of these conclusions would be, I think, premature to the point of recklessness. This is why, to their credit, the authors of both the OpenAI and Anthropic reports are very careful about what they do and don’t know and can and cannot infer from their work. They’re not claiming these findings can tell us about the medium or long-run effects of AI on labor demand, or the distribution of economic growth, or the professions that will be most affected by AI — even though that’s <a href="https://fortune.com/2025/09/16/anthropic-economic-index-report-automation-entry-level-jobs-gen-z/">precisely what a lot of outside observers are doing</a>.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why AI is different from corn (I promise this makes sense)</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So let me finish by focusing on something the reports do tell us that is, I think, crucially important. One of the oldest findings in the economics of innovation is that new technologies take time, often a long time, to “diffuse” through the economy.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The classic paper here is <a href="https://iaes.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/77.pdf">Zvi Griliches in 1957 on the spread of hybrid corn</a>. Hybrid corn was not one specific product, but a particular approach to breeding corn seeds optimally for specific soil in specific areas. Once a few farmers in a state adopted hybrid corn, subsequent uptake seemed to be unbelievably fast. Look at those S-curves!</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/09/griliches_corn.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A chart showing the adoption of “hybrid corn” techniques from 1932 to 1956 in Iowa, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Texas, and Alabama. They adopted the technology in that order, and it penetrated deeper into agriculture in Iowa than in later states like Texas." title="A chart showing the adoption of “hybrid corn” techniques from 1932 to 1956 in Iowa, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Texas, and Alabama. They adopted the technology in that order, and it penetrated deeper into agriculture in Iowa than in later states like Texas." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Zvi Griliches, “Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics of Technological Change&quot;" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">But while diffusion within individual states was fast, diffusion between states wasn’t. Why did Texas need a decade after the rise of hybrid corn in Iowa to realize that this could greatly increase yields? Why did it seem to hit a much lower ceiling of 60–80 percent usage, compared to universal uptake in Iowa? You also see these kinds of lags when looking at cases like <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2006600">electricity</a> and in <a href="https://dcomin.host.dartmouth.edu/files/exploration_technology.pdf">datasets covering a wide array of inventions</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Something the Anthropic and OpenAI data tells us pretty clearly is that the diffusion lags for AI are, by historical standards, very short. Adoption of this tech has been rapid, indeed faster than <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/">earlier online products</a> like Facebook or TikTok, let alone hybrid corn.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Past general-purpose technologies like electricity or computing took years or decades to diffuse through the economy, which limited their benefit for a time but also gave us time to adapt. We will likely not get that time this go-around.</p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[How to save Social Security without screwing over poor people]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/461198/social-security-retirement-age-longevity-life-expectancy" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=461198</id>
			<updated>2025-09-23T09:59:34-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-09-12T08:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Explainers" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Money" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Social Policy" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The other day, economist Tyler Cowen made an offhand observation that took me aback a bit: that the French, today, enjoy “the longest financed retirements ever seen in the history of the world.” Verifying the “history of the world” part is beyond my historical skill level. That said, the OECD’s Pensions at a Glance report [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
							<content type="html">
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<figure>

<img alt="A sign that says “hands off social security. we’ve paid!”" data-caption="A protester holds up a pro-Social Security sign in Detroit on April 19, 2025. | Dominic Gwinn/Middle East Image/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Dominic Gwinn/Middle East Image/AFP via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/09/gettyimages-2210533621.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	A protester holds up a pro-Social Security sign in Detroit on April 19, 2025. | Dominic Gwinn/Middle East Image/AFP via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">The other day, economist Tyler Cowen made an <a href="https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/09/france-fact-of-the-day-8.html?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=france-fact-of-the-day-8">offhand observation</a> that took me aback a bit: that the French, today, enjoy “the longest financed retirements ever seen in the history of the world.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Verifying the “history of the world” part is beyond my historical skill level. That said, the <a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2023/12/pensions-at-a-glance-2023_4757bf20/full-report/component-37.html#figure-d1e57786-bebf35cb1d">OECD’s Pensions at a Glance report from 2023</a> confirms that French retirees are enjoying a lot of years off the job.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">French men, per the report, left the labor force at an average age of 60.7. At that point, they have a life expectancy of 84, meaning they can expect 23.3 years in retirement, longer than any of the other countries the OECD examined (mostly rich peer nations plus a few select others). French women can expect 26.1 years in retirement, which is beaten by Luxembourg, Spain, Slovenia, and the world leader, Saudi Arabia, but still very high. (The Saudi case is more about women working fewer and shorter stints than in more liberal polities, as opposed to retirement policy.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">French men and women alike can expect over five additional years in retirement compared to Americans.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Incidentally, the French government fell this week in part due to opposition parties demanding that the centrist coalition in power <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dnxxekyezo">go back on its decision to raise the formal retirement age from 62 to 64</a>. Funding 23 to 26 years of retirement per person is expensive, which is exactly why President Emmanuel Macron raised the age in the first place, but when the elderly voter bloc is only growing in size, failing to pay that money out can be politically suicidal.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Retirement, American-style</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As a non-Frenchman, this fight inevitably makes me think about the coming retirement battle in the US. Our Social Security trust fund is due to <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/II_D_project.html#105057">be depleted in about eight years</a>. Under current law, when that happens, retirees will see an across-the-board cut of <a href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/analysis-2025-social-security-trustees-report">about 23 percent</a> in their benefit levels. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/2023/4/21/23663654/social-security-retirement-age-1983-greenspan-ball">Everything I know about how the US government works</a> tells me it will not get to that point. The question, then, is what a deal to prevent those cuts would look like.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">One obvious way to avoid the French predicament is to do what Macron did: raise the retirement age. There are two components to the aging problem hitting the US and other rich nations’ pension systems. One is that, because of the size of the baby boom population, more people are hitting retirement age than ever. The number of <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/chartbooks/fast_facts/2023/fast_facts23.html">retired workers newly receiving Social Security</a> hit 3.4 million in 2022, compared to under 2 million in 2000.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Raising the retirement age doesn’t solve this issue. But it does partially address the second issue, which is that the average time spent in retirement has risen as nutrition and medicine have improved. A man born in 1900 and turning 65 in 1965 could <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/V_A_demo.html#228705">expect to live 12.9 more years</a>. The Social Security Administration <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/V_A_demo.html#228705">estimates</a> that a man born in 1960 and turning 65 this year can expect 18.4 more years. Even accounting for the <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/presentations/ocact_20240522.pdf#page=30">trend of people claiming Social Security later in life</a>, that’s a good number of additional years that the program has to pay out per male retiree.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Between 2000 and 2022, the US <a href="https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44670">gradually raised the retirement age</a> for full Social Security benefits from 65 to 67. But most bipartisan proposals to reform Social Security (that is, proposals with any shot of passage) envision some kind of further age increase. Two years ago, Sens. Angus King (I-ME) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) floated <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/02/27/2023/a-bipartisan-group-of-senators-are-talking-about-raising-the-retirement-age-on-social-security">raising the normal retirement age to 70</a>. The Bipartisan Policy Center brought together some ex-politicians and experts in both parties to <a href="https://bipartisanpolicy.org/download/?file=/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPC-Retirement-Security-Report.pdf">put together a plan</a>, which wound up advocating an age of 69.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">One of the key political virtues of a retirement age increase is that it’s a benefit cut that doesn’t present itself quite as obviously as a benefit cut.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But it does amount to a cut, and potentially a large one. Right now, a 67-year-old woman can <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html">expect to live 18.5 more years</a>. Suppose she has to wait until age 70 to claim the same amount of benefits she can now claim at 67. That eats up three of her 18.5 years of expected benefits, an over 16 percent cut. The cut for men, with our shorter lifespans, is even larger in percentage terms.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The most important question to ask about it, though, is whether it’s an across-the-board benefit cut, or in fact a regressive one. There are strong arguments that it is the latter.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Death inequality and Social Security</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The eminent Social Security expert and economist <a href="https://crr.bc.edu/this-trend-has-important-implications-for-social-securitys-full-retirement-age/">Alice Munnell</a> recently highlighted a chart <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/HoyerPrimus_20250103.pdf">from the program’s actuary’s office</a> that underlined a pretty concerning gap and trend:</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/09/Table-1_LE-by-AIME-2048x756-1.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A chart showing life expectancy of men at age 62 by quintile of average indexed monthly earnings" title="A chart showing life expectancy of men at age 62 by quintile of average indexed monthly earnings" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Screenshot" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">If you don’t speak Social Security jargon, this can be a little hard to parse. Essentially, it’s comparing two groups: men born in 1930 considering retirement in 1992 and men born in 1960 considering retirement in 2022. In both groups there is a large gap in life expectancy between the people who earned the least in their careers and those who earned the most. In 1992, the highest-earning men could expect to live 8.4 years longer than the lowest-earning men. In 2022, they could expect 10.3 more years. (“Highest-earning” here means the highest-earning fifth, This is not exactly Elon Musk money: in <a href="https://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/pdf_studies/study129.pdf#page=4">2020</a>, being in the top quintile as a man meant an average monthly income of at least $6,391, or $76,692 annually.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Put differently: not only is there a big life expectancy gap between rich and poor people, but also the gap seems to be growing.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This puts retirement age discussions in a different light. Suppose we’re considering raising not the normal retirement age (now 67) but the early age (now 62), at which point retirees can claim reduced benefits. If we raise the age by three years, then men in the highest income bracket get a cut of 3 divided by 25.6, or about 11 percent. Men in the lowest income bracket get a cut of 3 divided by 15.3, or almost 20 percent. The specific numbers are different if you’re considering raising the normal retirement age, or looking at female workers, but the overall takeaway is the same: raising the age of retirement amounts to a bigger cut for poorer workers.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Recently, economists <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/on-tennis-and-social-security/">Henry Aaron</a> at Brookings and <a href="https://www.aei.org/economics/is-life-expectancy-inequality-increasing/">Mark Warshawsky</a> got into a heated dispute about how to make sense of these numbers. <a href="https://www.aei.org/economics/response-to-henry-aaron-on-life-expectancy-inequality/">Warshawsky argues</a> against using life expectancy numbers like those above on the grounds that they inevitably require one to make projections (we don’t know, of course, how long people who retired in 2022 will in fact live, chiefly because most of them haven’t died yet), and for restricting analysis to men aged 65-69. Aaron argues that this is too restrictive (everyone, including insurers, relies heavily on life expectancy projections as well) and neglects that women, for instance, have seen lifespan inequality increase.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">To my non-expert eye, Aaron has the better of this specific dispute. But it’s worth emphasizing that the lifespan gap between rich and poor need not be <em>increasing</em> in order for hiking the retirement age to be regressive on net. If, in 30 years, rich men are still living 10 more years in retirement than poor men, an increase in the retirement age will still hit poor men harder than rich men, even if the gap itself hasn’t grown.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Splitting the difference&nbsp;</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The <a href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/johnson-introduces-social-security-solvency-legislation">traditional Republican approach to Social Security</a> has been to call for its shortfall to be closed entirely with benefit cuts; the <a href="https://larson.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/larson.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/overall-one-pager_0.pdf">traditional Democratic approach</a> has been to rely entirely on tax hikes. Neither of these has any shot in hell of happening, especially if the Senate filibuster remains in place.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I highly doubt that there are 50 Republicans in the Senate now willing to vote for major benefit cuts, and there certainly aren’t the 60 that would actually be needed. Similarly, I put the odds of Democrats ever electing 60 senators willing to pass a huge payroll tax hike, even just on top earners, at near zero.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This story was first featured in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Future Perfect newsletter</a>.</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">Sign up <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">here</a> to explore the big, complicated problems the world faces and the most efficient ways to solve them. Sent twice a week.</p>
</div>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If there’s going to be reform before the trust fund runs out in 2033, it’s going to have to be on a bipartisan basis and involve pretty huge concessions by each side. And I suspect some kind of a retirement age increase will be part of the deal.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If that happens, the best option out there is one that <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/fixing-social-security-blueprint-for-a-bipartisan-solution/">Wendell Primus, Tara Watson, and Jack Smalligan outline in their recent Brookings reform plan</a>. They would raise the retirement age — but only for the top 40 percent of earners. Most retirees would not see the age rise at all, while the top fifth of earners would see it rise to 70. Those in the 60th to 80th percentiles would see smaller hikes. Along with other progressive benefit cuts and tax hikes, the plan would fix the program’s solvency issue.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This retirement age change would make the system somewhat more complicated, as people would have to look up what their specific retirement age is based on their income. But it’s the only plan I’ve seen that keeps the most popular kind of benefit cut from being painfully regressive.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The case for caring about shrimp]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/461008/shrimp-welfare-project-controversy" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=461008</id>
			<updated>2026-01-12T17:17:10-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-09-11T06:00:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Animal Welfare" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Explainers" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[We all know that it’s better to save five people’s lives than to save only one. But in 1977, one philosopher dared to argue…maybe it isn’t? “Should the Numbers Count?” by John Taurek is among the few modern philosophy papers that might fairly be described as infamous. When I was taught it as an undergrad, [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p class="has-text-align-none">We all know that it’s better to save five people’s lives than to save only one. But in 1977, one philosopher dared to argue…maybe it isn’t?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“<a href="https://sites.pitt.edu/~mthompso/readings/taurek.pdf">Should the Numbers Count?</a>” by John Taurek is among the few modern philosophy papers that might fairly be described as infamous. When I was taught it as an undergrad, it was presented as something between a cautionary tale and a punching bag, a set of dubious arguments in favor of a conclusion so absurd that it’s astonishing a respected UCLA professor put his name to it. The most prominent reply, from famed Oxford moral philosopher Derek Parfit, was simply titled, “<a href="https://sites.pitt.edu/~mthompso/readings/parfit.pdf">Innumerate Ethics</a>.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Taurek asks the reader to imagine a situation in which there is “a supply of some lifesaving drugs. Six people will all certainly die if they are not treated with the drug. But one of the six requires all of the drug if he is to survive. Each of the other five requires only one-fifth of the drug.” What should be done?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Most people, Taurek concedes, will conclude that dividing the drug supply five ways, and saving five lives, is better than giving it all to the sixth person (whom he names David). But to conclude this is to make a mistake, he says. Implicit in the idea that the numbers count, he argues, is a belief that you can sum up suffering and happiness between different people, so that the suffering of five people “adds up” to more than the suffering of one.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Taurek objects.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">&#8220;Suffering is not additive in this way,&#8221; he insists. David dying is bad <em>for David</em>. One of David’s five rivals for the drugs dying is bad <em>for that person</em>. There is no such thing as “bad for the world” or “bad, full stop.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">&#8220;I am not to compare [David’s] loss, on the one hand, to the collective or total loss to these five, on the other, whatever exactly that is supposed to be,&#8221; he concludes. &#8220;Rather, I should compare what David stands to suffer or lose, if I do not prevent it, to what will be suffered or lost by any other person, if I do not prevent that.&#8221;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">None of the five others will suffer <em>more</em> by dying than David would. Thus, Taurek claims, the drug’s owner should not reflexively save the five instead of David. She should, rather, flip a coin: heads the five live, tails David lives. That is the best way to show equal concern for each person.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">When I first read Taurek, my reaction was: Is this guy fucking with me? Would he flip a coin not between one and five but between one and a <em>million</em>? A billion? Would a world leader be justified in allowing a nuclear strike to go forward, if doing so saved his best friend and no one else? What exactly is wrong with this man?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I, apparently, was not alone in this reaction. Parfit — who was legendarily even-tempered and courteous, especially for a philosopher — was made so furious by the argument that by the end he was reduced to lecturing Taurek the way one would a preschooler: “Why do we save the larger number? Because we <em>do</em> give equal weight to saving each. Each counts for one. That is why more count for more.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And yet over the years I have encountered a few <a href="https://jesp.org/PDF/TylerDoggett.pdf">philosophers</a> and philosophy-adjacent folks who are, if not totally on board with Taurek, at least <a href="https://sites.pitt.edu/~mthompso/readings/taureknotes.pdf">Taurek-curious</a>. They’re skeptical that the numbers count, the way I intuitively feel they must count.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I didn’t understand, really, where such a person could possibly be coming from. I didn’t understand, that is, until the shrimp.</p>
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Consider the prawn</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Let’s say that, contra Taurek, the numbers do count. Here are a few numbers.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There are, as of this writing, <a href="https://www.census.gov/popclock/">roughly 8.1 billion human beings</a> on Earth. Per the research group <a href="https://faunalytics.org/global-animal-slaughter-statistics-and-charts/#">Faunalytics</a>, humans worldwide killed about 310 million cows for meat in 2023; 480 million rabbits; 520 million turkeys; 540 million goats; a little under 700 million sheep; 790 million geese; and 1.5 billion pigs. We also killed 4.2 billion ducks and 78 billion chickens.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What that means is that we slaughter something like 3.5 billion mammals a year, and over <em>20 times</em> as many birds.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But just as there’s a gap between mammals and birds, there is an ever bigger gap between birds and fish. No one knows with certainty how many fish humans kill each year. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/animal-welfare/article/estimating-global-numbers-of-farmed-fishes-killed-for-food-annually-from-1990-to-2019/765A7CCA23ADA0249EF37CFC5014D351">One recent paper</a> estimated the number of “finfish,” as distinct from shellfish, killed on farms in 2019 at between 78 and 171 billion. Even the low-end number would equal the number of chickens killed every year, meaning the total number of fish deaths almost certainly swamps that of land animals. And that’s just farmed fish. <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38510420/">Another paper</a> by two of the researchers from the farmed fish paper puts the number of <em>wild-caught</em> finfish at an average of 1.1 to 2.2 <em>trillion</em> per year.</p>

<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p>If the numbers count, then surely it follows that the most pressing matter in the world of animal rights is the plight of the shrimp.</p></blockquote></figure>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What of <em>shell</em>fish, though? The research group Rethink Priorities estimated recently that roughly 440 billion <a href="https://rethinkpriorities.org/research-area/forecasting-farmed-animal-numbers-in-2033/">shrimp are killed on farms</a> annually. What&#8217;s more, they expect this number to balloon to over 760 billion by 2033, based on projections from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Food and Agricultural Organization. Over eight shrimp will die for every chicken slaughtered that year, they forecast.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So those are the numbers. Now, suppose you care about animals’ welfare, or at least think humans have some kind of duties to the animals we raise in farms or take from the wild to feed ourselves. Suppose further that you think shrimp count even a little bit —&nbsp;not as much as a human, of course, or a cow, or even a trout, but they still count in some way as animals capable of feeling pain and worthy of some consideration.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If the numbers count, then surely it follows that the most pressing matter in the world of animal rights is the plight of the shrimp.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It is all well and good for me to furiously insist in a philosophy seminar that John Taurek is a madman and <em>of course</em> the numbers should count. But if that is so —&nbsp;should <em>these </em>numbers count? Does the seemingly basic conclusion of wanting to save five humans ahead of one commit me to a kind of totalizing shrimp fanaticism? How far down this road am I willing to walk?</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The oft-neglected shrimp</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Andrés Jiménez Zorrilla has walked down this road at least a little ways. In 2020, he left a career in private equity to cofound <a href="https://www.shrimpwelfareproject.org/">Shrimp Welfare Project</a>, which is exactly what it sounds like. (Like the band Pixies, Shrimp Welfare Project eschews the definite article.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">When I asked Jiménez Zorilla about his switch, some of his explanations feel like what someone would say when leaving a finance job to work at a soup kitchen, or quitting a lucrative plastic surgery practice to help civilians injured in war. He just wanted to do some good. “My wife works with refugees, and I started to compare what she was doing and what I was doing,” he told me. “At some point I decided I should be doing something beyond just making someone else richer.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">He came across <a href="https://www.vox.com/23892694/joey-savoie-karolina-sarek-charity-entrepreneurship-future-perfect-50-2023">Charity Entrepreneurship</a>, an effective altruism-aligned group that helps people create new charitable organizations targeting neglected problems. The group matched him up with a cofounder, Aaron Boddy, and gave them a menu of serious problems not currently attracting much charitable attention. One of the items on the menu was “shrimp welfare.” It’s a classic effective altruist idea: A cause that is important (440 billion shrimp a year!), neglected (no one else was working on shrimp welfare), and tractable (precisely because no one was working on it, there were likely easy ways to improve shrimps’ lives that no one had tried yet, even if those ways weren’t immediately obvious).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">At first, Jiménez Zorilla recalled, “I thought, ‘the effective animal advocacy folks have really lost their minds.’” Then he kept reading. And he saw the massive number of shrimp being farmed every year. And the evidence that shrimp are sentient: that they are, at the very least, able to feel pain, able to suffer. And the fact that literally no one on planet Earth seemed to be working on this issue.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Before he knew it, he was founding a shrimp welfare group, to his knowledge still the only group singularly dedicated to the animals in the world.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Talking to Jiménez Zorilla is very effective at bringing one’s views of the shrimp dilemma down from the philosophy seminar to the ice slurry. That, the ice slurry, is one of the major methods through which shrimp are killed, or less killed than transported while slowly dying. Upon reaching maturity, some of the shrimp farms that <a href="https://www.shrimpwelfareproject.org/vietnam-scoping-report">Shrimp Welfare Project examined in Vietnam</a>, one of the world’s leading shrimp producers, transport them alive to processing plants. Others put them on the ice slurry, which is meant to both kill them and keep their corpses preserved for transport.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In theory, the low temperature stuns them before they die, enabling a less painful demise. We know that subjecting shrimp to cold ice or water <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30231519/">reduces their activity</a>. But it’s not clear that this means they are stunned, and no longer experiencing pain, as opposed to <em>paralyzed</em>: feeling pain but unable to move. It is entirely possible that the shrimp in the slurry are frozen to death slowly, feeling the whole thing.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What of the shrimp transported alive? Many of them were crushed to death, the report’s authors, Trinh Lien-Huong and Nguyen Tran, conclude: “In many cases, the … containers contained a very small amount of water or ice slurry, with animals crowding inside. Shrimps and prawns suffered from asphyxia and weight crushing in these situations.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">When Jiménez Zorilla and Boddy did their own <a href="https://www.shrimpwelfareproject.org/india-scoping-report">investigation at Indian shrimp farms</a>, they found that 95 percent of the farmers they interviewed believed their animal wards could feel pain. “In most cases farmers would go on to explain how they try to relieve the suffering of shrimps using medicines or improving water or feed quality,” they write. One farmer told them that “when shrimp were stressed, he would attempt to improve water quality ‘to make the shrimp feel free.’”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While there is less scientific evidence on the mental state of shrimp than that of other decapods, like crabs, a <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/News-Assets/PDFs/2021/Sentience-in-Cephalopod-Molluscs-and-Decapod-Crustaceans-Final-Report-November-2021.pdf">2021 review by London School of Economics researchers</a> commissioned by the UK government found evidence backing these farmers up. The authors reported high confidence that penaeid shrimps, the most commonly commercially farmed variety, have “nociceptors,” or neurons that can respond to external stimuli that can hurt the shrimp. They also reviewed some studies showing that shrimp respond to painkillers by becoming calmer, and grooming the hurt area on their bodies less — more signs of the capacity to feel pain.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The evidence is thin, the review concluded —&nbsp;but mostly because it’s been barely researched. Whenever crustaceans have been closely examined by scientists, strong evidence of sentience is invariably found. The authors, including eminent sentience researcher <a href="https://www.vox.com/press-room/386975/vox-releases-2024-future-perfect-50-list-celebrating-inspiring-changemakers">Jonathan Birch</a>, conclude that the UK should treat all decapods, including shrimp, as sentient animals.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Shrimp Welfare Project’s remedies are quite modest. The group offers shrimp farms in the countries where it works (largely in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, the centers of the world shrimp industry) free electric stunning machines. The group has concluded that electric slaughter is likely more humane than being crushed or paralyzed in the ice slurry.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">To get the stunning machines, though, farms have to commit to other welfare measures, like minimum sizes for shrimp ponds. Their shrimp must have enough room to move around, to burrow and rest; their water must be kept clean and free of noxious chemicals. They must procure shrimp from hatcheries that do not practice “eyestalk ablation,” a common procedure where unanesthetized mother shrimp have their eyes cut off, because farms have found that this increases egg-laying behaviors.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">At the end of the day, Shrimp Welfare Project is a tiny nonprofit with about 10 full-time staff working to help hundreds of billions of animals die less painful deaths. They’re not trying to bring down the entire multibillion-dollar shrimp industry. They’re not even asking people to stop eating shrimp. Who could be mad about that?</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The shrimp wars</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>Many, many people</em>, it turns out, can be mad about that.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Since Shrimp Welfare Project emerged, it has become not just a focus of controversy among animal activists but a preferred cudgel for beating up on effective altruism in general. It’s not like such cudgels are, exactly, rare. EAs are (I say as one) very weird people. You may remember that one EA <a href="https://www.vox.com/business-and-finance/2024/3/28/24114058/sam-bankman-fried-sbf-ftx-conviction-sentence-date">did a world-historic fraud</a> a couple of years ago. Many of those remaining in the movement after that debacle have shifted to focusing on preventing AI-related catastrophe in a way that <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/03/18/among-the-ai-doomsayers#:~:text=He%20updated%20his%20bio%20on%20X%2C%20adding%20%E2%80%9CE/acc%E2%80%9D%20and%20%E2%80%9Cp(Doom)%20=%200.%E2%80%9D">makes people seeking AI-related utopia furious</a>, and frustrates people focused more on <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/8/10/23298108/ai-dangers-ethics-alignment-present-future-risk">traditional tech issues</a> like copyright or algorithmic bias.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But even with such rich material to work with, the EA movement’s support for Shrimp Welfare Project has generated particular ire. Representative reactions include:</p>

<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>“I have to be honest, even if it gets me cancelled: <a href="https://x.com/PhilipDBunn/status/1947128187185512767">nothing has turned me against the effective altruist crowd more than ‘shrimp welfare.’</a>”</li>



<li>“<a href="https://x.com/perrymetzger/status/1666940138423812099">The shrimp are a warning</a>. A model of the world that leads to bizarre conclusions cannot be trusted, and people who take that model extremely seriously will end up doing unreasonable things.”</li>



<li>“<a href="https://x.com/powerfultakes/status/1954448533601554679">This obsession with shrimp welfare needs to die</a>. If capacity to suffer is largely independent of cognitive capacity then we live in a fallen world anyway (billions of gruesome deaths in ant wars daily). If not then you should privilege one elephant 🐘 over trillions of shrimp.”</li>
</ul>

<p class="has-text-align-none">When the pseudonymous blogger Flo of the substack Moral Law Within wrote a piece <a href="https://morallawwithin.substack.com/p/yes-you-should-save-10100-shrimp">defending the importance of shrimp welfare</a>, her reward was <a href="https://x.com/morallawwithin/status/1947014986380783660">some 1.4 million views of her X post</a> and a barrage of hate from enemies of the shrimp.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Flo isn’t an animal ethicist at all, she told me: “I’d be so bored if I did that. It’s like studying the ethics of punching random people in the face. Just don’t do it!” The point of her post was to explore the idea of <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/scope-neglect">scope sensitivity</a>. This is, roughly put, the ethical concept that it’s sometimes a good idea to count stuff. Sometimes, as when reading John Taurek, the importance of counting seems obvious: It matters whether it’s one person or five people who are at risk of dying.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But especially when numbers reach into the millions and billions and trillions, our ability to intelligently compare starts to erode. Perhaps my favorite example is that of plastic straws. Over the past decade, huge amounts of global effort have gone into <a href="https://renouvo.net/carbon-emission/plastic-straws-ban-in-the-us-and-europe/">moving away from single-use plastic straws</a>. My favorite coffee shop in Washington, DC, adopted a kind of cardboard straw that has all the tensile strength of a chocolate eclair. But even the most alarming estimates of plastic straw usage suggested that straws account for, at most, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-07/plastic-straws-aren-t-the-problem">0.03 percent of the plastic waste dumped in the world&#8217;s oceans</a> every year. By contrast, fishing nets make up 46 percent of the waste. Focusing on plastic straws instead of fishing nets? That’s scope insensitivity.</p>

<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p>“The point isn’t whether shrimp are more important than humans. The question is whether this thing is important enough for some people to spend some time on.” </p><cite>Andrés Jiménez Zorrilla, Shrimp Welfare Project cofounder</cite></blockquote></figure>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The casual dismissal of shrimp welfare struck Flo as a similar kind of scope insensitivity. The number of shrimp killed every year is about four times greater than <a href="https://www.prb.org/articles/how-many-people-have-ever-lived-on-earth/">the number of humans who have <em>ever lived in human history</em></a>. If you think shrimp matter at all, even if you think shrimp matter only 1 percent or even 0.1 percent as much as people —&nbsp;these numbers should alarm you. The scope matters.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Ronny Chieng, the<em> Daily Show</em> correspondent, once did a segment on Shrimp Welfare Project, inspired by the <a href="https://x.com/Mjreard/status/1927029877418401811">furious Substack debate over it</a>. He had penetrating questions for Jiménez Zorrilla (“Is this a sex thing?”) but the most trenchant he saved for an animal activist criticizing the quantitative approach of the group and of effective altruism in general: “Please don&#8217;t be offended by this. Are you just saying this because you&#8217;re bad at math?”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There are two layers to the negative reaction to shrimp welfare. One is, well, it’s shrimp. They’re tiny: it’s in the name. They look like gross ocean bugs. “Someone once asked me for cute shrimp pictures, and I sent them a few,” Jiménez Zorrilla once told an <a href="https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/shrimp-are-the-most-abused-animals-on-earth">interviewer</a>, “and they responded, ‘Well, clearly, you&#8217;ve been at this for way too long.’” There is an instinctive revulsion at the idea that an animal so minuscule and so evolutionarily far from humans could arouse our sympathies.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But the other layer is, I think, more fundamental: It’s not about shrimp but about counting. Shrimp Welfare Project serves as a kind of reductio ad absurdum of the view that John Taurek was wrong and that the numbers ought to count. Sure, at first that worldview just means that you save five humans rather than one. But once you get on that train, the last stop is the view that, to quote the title of Flo’s infamous post, “<a href="https://morallawwithin.substack.com/p/yes-you-should-save-10100-shrimp">Yes, you should save 10^100 shrimp instead of one human</a>.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If one is told that they can choose between two logically consistent worldviews, and one of them means believing that saving five people isn’t better than saving one, and the other commits them to believing that the lives of shrimp are a matter of vast cosmic importance —&nbsp;I don’t know what most people would choose. I haven’t done the polling. But I’d guess they’d take the Taurek pill before they took the shrimp pill.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Shrimp centrism</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As I start to spiral out about this, about the choice between what seems a kind of moral nihilism where five lives don’t count for more than just one, and a kind of shrimp fanaticism that obliges me to consign myself and my wife and child to monkish poverty so we may serve the crustaceans who need us, I remember a man who takes neither of these positions: Andrés Jiménez Zorrilla.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“My cofounder and I tried to do this trolley exercise,” comparing the value of shrimps versus other animals or humans, “and dropped it five minutes in because it’s irrelevant,” he told me. “The point isn’t whether shrimp are more important than humans. The question is whether this thing is important enough for some people to spend some time on. The answer to us was incontrovertibly yes.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The public’s reaction to press coverage like his <em>Daily Show</em> appearance, he recalled, was “overwhelmingly positive.” People didn’t fulminate about the evils of prioritizing shrimp lives over those of humans. They asked how they could know if the shrimp they’re buying is ethically raised and slaughtered. They asked for information about shrimp consciousness and pain awareness. They donated money.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Shrimp Welfare Project hasn’t exactly taken over the shrimp industry. But it’s making progress. “We have partners we’ve now given machines affecting on the order of 4 billion shrimps a year, or 1 percent of the total global volume,” he told me, visibly proud.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Jiménez Zorrilla expresses a worldview that I’ve come to appreciate. Call it “shrimp centrism.” The numbers matter. Taurek is wrong. But we are humans. We are often wrong. Our information is often imprecise. And certainly no one has enough information to conclude that shrimp welfare is the most important thing on earth.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What we probably do have enough information to conclude is that shrimp matter. At least a bit. And maybe it’s good that 4 billion of them a year get to die less painful deaths.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>This story is part of a series supported by Animal Charity Evaluators, which received a grant from EarthShare.</em></p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[A tournament tried to test how well experts could forecast AI progress. They were all wrong.]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/460222/ai-forecasting-tournament-superforecaster-expert-tetlock" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=460222</id>
			<updated>2025-09-05T11:54:30-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-09-05T07:15:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Artificial Intelligence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Innovation" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Two of the smartest people I follow in the AI world recently sat down to check in on how the field is going. One was François Chollet, creator of the widely used Keras library and author of the ARC-AGI benchmark, which tests if AI has reached &#8220;general&#8221; or broadly human-level intelligence. Chollet has a reputation [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="Two robots, one with red hat and gloves and one with blue hat and gloves, box inside a ring." data-caption="Two boxing robots from Unitree at Shanghai New Expo Center on July 28, 2025. | Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/09/gettyimages-2226761571.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Two boxing robots from Unitree at Shanghai New Expo Center on July 28, 2025. | Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">Two of the smartest people I follow in the AI world <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1if6XbzD5Yg">recently sat down</a> to check in on how the field is going.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">One was François Chollet, creator of the widely used <a href="https://keras.io/">Keras library</a> and author of the <a href="https://arcprize.org/arc-agi">ARC-AGI benchmark</a>, which tests if AI has reached &#8220;general&#8221; or broadly human-level intelligence. Chollet has a reputation as a bit of an AI bear, eager to deflate the most boosterish and over-optimistic predictions of where the technology is going. But in the discussion, Chollet said his timelines have gotten shorter recently. Researchers had made big progress on what he saw as the major obstacles to achieving artificial general intelligence, like models’ weakness at recalling and applying things they learned before.</p>

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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This story was first featured in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Future Perfect newsletter</a>.</h2>



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<p class="has-text-align-none">Chollet’s interlocutor —&nbsp;<a href="https://www.dwarkesh.com/">Dwarkesh Patel</a>, whose podcast has become the single most important place for tracking what top AI scientists are thinking — had, in reaction to his own reporting, moved in the opposite direction. While humans are great at <a href="https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/timelines-june-2025?manualredirect=">learning continuously</a> or “on the job,” Patel has become more pessimistic that AI models can gain this skill any time soon.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">&#8220;[Humans are] learning from their failures. They&#8217;re picking up small improvements and efficiencies as they work,&#8221; Patel noted. &#8220;It doesn&#8217;t seem like there&#8217;s an easy way to slot this key capability into these models.&#8221;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">All of which is to say, two very plugged-in, smart people who know the field as well as anyone else can come to perfectly reasonable yet contradictory conclusions about the pace of AI progress.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In that case, how is someone like me, who’s certainly less knowledgeable than Chollet or Patel, supposed to figure out who’s right?</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The forecaster wars, three years in</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">One of the most promising approaches I’ve seen to resolving — or at least adjudicating — these disagreements comes from a small group called the <a href="https://forecastingresearch.org/">Forecasting Research Institute</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the summer of 2022, the institute began what it calls the <a href="https://forecastingresearch.org/xpt">Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament</a> (XPT for short). XPT was <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/635693acf15a3e2a14a56a4a/t/64f0a7838ccbf43b6b5ee40c/1693493128111/XPT.pdf">intended</a> to “produce high-quality forecasts of the risks facing humanity over the next century.” To do this, the researchers (including Penn psychologist and <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23785731/human-extinction-forecasting-superforecasters">forecasting pioneer Philip Tetlock</a> and FRI head Josh Rosenberg) surveyed subject matter experts who study threats that at least conceivably could jeopardize humanity’s survival (like AI) in the summer of 2022.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But they also asked “<a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/2/13/24070864/samotsvety-forecasting-superforecasters-tetlock">superforecasters</a>,” a group of people identified by Tetlock and others who have proven unusually accurate at predicting events in the past. The superforecaster group was not made up of experts on existential threats to humanity, but rather, generalists from a variety of occupations with solid predictive track records.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On each risk, including AI, there were <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23785731/human-extinction-forecasting-superforecasters">big gaps between the area-specific experts and the generalist forecasters</a>. The experts were much more likely than the generalists to say that the risk they study could lead to either human extinction or mass deaths. This gap persisted even after the researchers had the two groups engage in structured discussions meant to identify <em>why</em> they disagreed.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The two just had fundamentally different worldviews. In the case of AI, subject matter experts thought the burden of proof should be on skeptics to show why a hyper-intelligent digital species <em>wouldn’t</em> be dangerous. The generalists thought the burden of proof should be on the experts to explain why a technology that doesn’t even exist yet could kill us all.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So far, so intractable. Luckily for us observers, each group was asked not only to estimate long-term risks over the next century, which can’t be confirmed any time soon, but also events in the nearer future. They were specifically tasked with predicting the pace of AI progress in the short, medium, and long run.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In a <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/635693acf15a3e2a14a56a4a/t/68b6ce72b3435a79858344b7/1756810866830/near-term-xpt-accuracy.pdf">new paper</a>, the authors — Tetlock, Rosenberg, Simas Kučinskas, Rebecca Ceppas de Castro, Zach Jacobs, Jordan Canedy, and Ezra Karger — go back and evaluate how well the two groups fared at predicting the three years of AI progress since summer 2022.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In theory, this could tell us which group to believe. If the concerned AI experts proved much better at predicting what would happen between 2022–2025, Perhaps that’s an indication that they have a better read on the longer-run future of the technology, and therefore, we should give their warnings greater credence.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Alas, in the words of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGpsXuMvApo">Ralph Fiennes</a>, “Would that it were so simple!” It turns out the three-year results leave us without much more sense of who to believe.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Both the AI experts and the superforecasters systematically underestimated the pace of AI progress. Across four benchmarks, the actual performance of state-of-the-art models in summer 2025 was better than either superforecasters or AI experts predicted (though the latter was closer). For instance, superforecasters thought an AI would get gold in the International Mathematical Olympiad in 2035. Experts thought 2030. It <a href="https://link.vox.com/view/608adc2d91954c3cef0303efoaied.bom/63b1f94f">happened this summer</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Overall, superforecasters assigned an average probability of just 9.7 percent to the observed outcomes across these four AI benchmarks,” the report concluded, “compared to 24.6 percent from domain experts.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That makes the domain experts look better. They put <em>slightly</em> higher odds that what actually happened would happen —&nbsp;but when they crunched the numbers across all questions, the authors concluded that there was no statistically significant difference in aggregate accuracy between the domain experts and superforecasters. What&#8217;s more, there was no correlation between how accurate someone was in projecting the year 2025 and how dangerous they thought AI or other risks were. Prediction remains hard, especially about the future, and <em>especially </em>about the future of AI.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The only trick that reliably worked was aggregating everyone&#8217;s forecasts — lumping all the predictions together and taking the median produced substantially more accurate forecasts than any one individual or group. We may not know which of these soothsayers are smart, but the crowds remain wise.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">There are no oracles</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Perhaps I should have seen this outcome coming. Ezra Karger, an economist and co-author on both the initial XPT paper and this new one, told me <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23785731/human-extinction-forecasting-superforecasters">upon the first paper&#8217;s release in 2023</a> that, “over the next 10 years, there really wasn’t that much disagreement between groups of people who disagreed about those longer run questions.&#8221; That is, they already knew that the predictions of people worried about AI and people less worried were pretty similar.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So, it shouldn&#8217;t surprise us too much that one group wasn&#8217;t dramatically better than the other at predicting the years 2022–2025. The real disagreement wasn’t about the near-term future of AI but about the danger it poses in the medium and long run, which is inherently harder to judge and more speculative.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There is, perhaps, some valuable information in the fact that both groups underestimated the rate of AI progress: perhaps that’s a sign that we have all underestimated the technology, and it’ll keep improving faster than anticipated. Then again, the predictions in 2022 were all made before the release of ChatGPT in November of that year. Who do you remember before that app’s rollout predicting that AI chatbots would become ubiquitous in work and school? Didn’t we already <em>know</em> that AI made big leaps in capabilities in the years 2022–2025? Does that tell us anything about whether the technology might not be slowing down, which, in turn, would be key to forecasting its long-term threat?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Reading the latest FRI report, I wound up in a similar place to <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/357346/ai-prediction-openai-chatgpt-anthropic">my former colleague Kelsey Piper last year</a>. Piper noted that failing to extrapolate trends, especially exponential trends, out into the future has led people badly astray in the past. The fact that relatively few Americans had Covid in January 2020 did not mean Covid wasn’t a threat; it meant that the country was at the start of an exponential growth curve. A similar kind of failure would lead one to underestimate AI progress and, with it, any potential existential risk.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">At the same time, in most contexts, exponential growth can’t go on forever; it maxes out at some point. It’s remarkable that, say, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/moores-law-has-accurately-predicted-the-progress-in-transistor-counts-over-the-last-50-years">Moore’s law has broadly predicted the growth in microprocessor density</a> accurately for decades —&nbsp;but Moore’s law is famous in part because it’s unusual for trends about human-created technologies to follow so clean a pattern.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I’ve increasingly come to believe that there is no substitute for digging deep into the weeds when you’re considering these questions,” Piper concluded. “While there are questions we can answer from first principles, [AI progress] isn’t one of them.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I fear she’s right — and that, worse, mere deference to experts doesn’t suffice either, not when experts disagree with each other on both specifics and broad trajectories. We don’t really have a good alternative to trying to learn as much as we can as individuals and, failing that, waiting and seeing. That’s not a satisfying conclusion to a newsletter — or a comforting answer to one of the most important questions facing humanity — but it’s the best I can do.</p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[This cash experiment cut child deaths in half. Here&#8217;s the catch.]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/458767/givedirectly-infant-mortality-study" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=458767</id>
			<updated>2025-08-21T13:02:34-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-08-22T07:15:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Poverty" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Public Health" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[It sometimes seems like the basic income wars will never go away. My first Vox piece on the idea of a government-provided guaranteed income came in the summer of 2014 —&#160;a simpler time, the Obama years. I wrote a big feature about it in 2017. Since then, we’ve had Andrew Yang’s presidential run, Covid-era stimulus [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/08/532763078_1171341118372014_4961410840177416419_n.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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<p class="has-text-align-none">It sometimes seems like the basic income wars will never go away. My first Vox piece on the idea of a government-provided guaranteed income came in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/7/23/5925041/guaranteed-income-basic-poverty-gobry-labor-supply">summer of 2014</a> —&nbsp;a simpler time, the Obama years. I wrote a <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/17/15364546/universal-basic-income-review-stern-murray-automation">big feature about it in 2017</a>. Since then, we’ve had <a href="https://www.vox.com/21419805/universal-basic-income-yang-gang-biden-2020-the-ezra-klein-show">Andrew Yang’s presidential run</a>, Covid-era stimulus checks, and massive progress in AI, all of which have made the idea feel more plausible.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">We’ve also had some <a href="https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/giving-people-money-helped-less-than">research findings that throw cold water on the concept</a>, at least in the US. Three studies that gave out unrestricted cash to Americans during the pandemic <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/7/9/23200337/cash-transfer-study-us-covid">found nulls on all the outcomes they tested</a>: the cash didn’t improve health or self-reported well-being or even, in one study, how well people say they’re doing financially.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This story was first featured in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Future Perfect newsletter</a>.</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">Sign up <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">here</a> to explore the big, complicated problems the world faces and the most efficient ways to solve them. Sent twice a week.</p>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">Two more recent, even bigger studies have backed that up. The <a href="https://www.babysfirstyears.com/">Baby’s First Years Study</a>, which began in 2018 and gave $4,000 a year to low-income American families with young kids for over four years, found <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/359737/researchers-parenting-mom-stress">no effects</a> on <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/us/politics/cash-payments-poor-families-child-development.html">child development outcomes</a> at the four-year mark. No reduction in behavioral problems, no improvements in language ability — nada. Another study run by the group <a href="https://www.openresearchlab.org/">OpenResearch</a> gave out $12,000 a year to families for three years. While it found some positive outcomes, like <a href="https://openresearch-web.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/documents/Documentation/w34040.pdf?dm=1752888416">parents spending more on their kids</a>, mostly it found <a href="https://openresearch-web.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/documents/Documentation/w33214.pdf?dm=1733175308">null effects</a>, <a href="https://www.openresearchlab.org/findings/nber-working-paper-consumption-and-household-balance-sheets">too</a>. Participants spent more because their incomes grew, but they also <a href="https://www.openresearchlab.org/findings/nber-working-paper-employment">worked less</a>, offsetting the income gain a bit.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But as I <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/17/15364546/universal-basic-income-review-stern-murray-automation">wrote</a> back in 2017, “The biggest potential for basic income isn’t in the US but in developing countries.” A <a href="https://www.givedirectly.org/mortality2025/">big new study</a> from the charity GiveDirectly seems to back that up, finding that cash grants in Kenya not only reduced poverty but actually saved lives.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Even here, though, it’s important to be careful. Covering basic income experiments for more than a decade has taught me that readers love to hear about ways in which cash programs work and are less eager to hear about ways they fall short. That resulted in some big expectations that, in more recent US research, at least, have been dashed.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Some <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/18/health/cash-transfer-kenya-poverty.html">coverage</a> of the <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/08/18/g-s1-83197/infants-health-cash-aid-kenya">GiveDirectly study</a> has only focused on the good news (lives saved) and not limitations, like the fact that it didn’t save lives very cost-effectively. That’s a problem.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The new cash/infant mortality study, explained</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The headline finding of the GiveDirectly study from economists Michael Walker, Nick Shankar, Edward Miguel, Dennis Egger, and Grady Killeen is that a randomized experiment providing one-time cash grants of worth about $1,871 each to over 10,500 households in rural Kenya found the cash reduced infant and child mortality. (The actual value was exactly $1,000, but given that prices are lower for most things in Kenya, it could buy what Americans think of as about $1,871 in goods and services.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The intervention here is larger than most countries’ cash programs. Kenya’s <a href="https://socialprotection.org/discover/programmes/inua-jamii-cash-transfer">main national cash program</a> grants 2,000 shillings (about <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.PPP?locations=KE">$45</a>) a month to its most vulnerable citizens — a tiny fraction of the $1,871 drop this study examined. And the effect size from the $1,871 is truly massive as well: a 48 percent reduction in deaths, mostly shortly after the cash was dispersed in 2015-2017.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A reduction that big from <em>any</em> intervention is eye-popping. From an intervention that isn’t even specifically meant to improve health or reduce deaths, it’s sufficiently impressive that you should be instinctively skeptical. Other, <a href="https://voxdev.org/topic/health/cash-transfers-reduce-adult-and-child-mortality-rates-low-and-middle-income-countries">non-experimental studies</a> have found reductions in mortality due to cash programs, but I’ve found <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ej/article-abstract/134/664/3360/7689751?redirectedFrom=fulltext">only one other controlled experiment</a> that found the same. It’s not a big evidence base.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What is the mechanism by which this might have happened? The study can’t say definitively, but it offers some clues. The cash drove a big increase in the share of mothers who delivered babies in hospitals as opposed to at home. If hospital-based delivery is safer than home delivery in these Kenyan villages, that could have caused some reduction in deaths. But it seems very unlikely to cause the entire reduction, especially given that <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31104765">other studies</a> have not found that delivery in a hospital or other health facility reduces the odds of infant death.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But there are other ways the cash could have helped. Mothers bought more food, and a “food security” measure (reflecting how often children skipped meals or went to bed hungry) improved. That could plausibly drive greater survival. Among mothers who received cash,&nbsp; hours worked fell by half in the three months before and three months after childbirth, implying that the transfer functioned as a kind of paid parental leave program (fathers’ work hours didn’t fall significantly). That could, perhaps, reduce maternal stress in ways that reduce infant mortality.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">When I asked economists not involved in the study to comment, they generally said it was a well-designed, credible experiment. But no study is perfect. <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/decrgberkozler/home">Berk Özler</a>, formerly a top economist at the World Bank now at the University of Otago and Stanford, noted that overall childbirths were 13 percent more common in villages getting cash. That raises the possibility of a selection effect. Perhaps the cash didn’t cause babies who would’ve been born anyway to be healthier but instead induced women likelier to have healthy babies anyway to get pregnant and give birth. For their part, the study’s authors conducted a number of tests and argue that this is unlikely to explain much of the results.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Perhaps the most significant caveat about the study, however, is that, while the effect on infant mortality was large, the <em>cost</em>-effectiveness of the cash program as a lifesaving tool isn’t impressive. The cash program cost $25.75 million, and, per the study results, saved 86 children’s lives, for a cost per life saved of $299,418. That’s very good by rich country standards. For comparison, <a href="https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insights/saved-by-medicaid-new-evidence-on-health-insurance-and-mortality-from-the-universe-of-low-income-adults/">Medicaid takes $5.4 million</a> to save a life. But it’s not competitive with the most cost-effective ways to save lives in countries like Kenya. <a href="https://www.givewell.org/impact-estimates#Impact_metrics_for_grants_to_GiveWells_top_charities">GiveWell estimates</a> that Vitamin A supplementation can save a life for about $3,500, while malaria prevention meds can do the same for about $4,500.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">GiveWell helped fund the cash/infant mortality study, in part seeking to improve its estimates of the cost-effectiveness of cash grants. Its <a href="https://blog.givewell.org/2024/11/12/re-evaluating-the-impact-of-unconditional-cash-transfers/">conclusion</a> was that the finding doesn’t change its rankings of charities too much and that most of the benefit from cash transfers comes from reducing poverty (which the Kenya experiment certainly did) rather than saving lives.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Make your takeaways modest</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">One really bad takeaway you could have from this study is “cash grants are all you need to save lives in the Global South.” The study authors and GiveDirectly itself are clear that cash needs other health infrastructure to work. “People who were further away from health facilities, the improvement wasn’t as great,” Dr. Miriam Laker-Oketta, a physician based at Uganda&#8217;s Makerere University and an advisor at GiveDirectly, told me in an interview. “What we need as a complementary intervention is infrastructure” like health facilities.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Another really bad takeaway, more from the US studies than this one, would be that cash has no health effects at all, even in the Global South. Among very poor, malnourished people who cannot afford regular medical care, there are strong intuitive reasons to think cash does <em>something</em> for their health. While lower monthly payments, like Kenya’s $45 a month, almost certainly won’t cause infant mortality to fall by half, they might help people’s health on the margin. See, for example, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387818312732?via%3Dihub">this study</a>, which found improvements in height-for-age among children born to young cash transfer recipients in Malawi. Of course, whether or not cash is the best or most cost-effective way to promote child health is a different question — and one where cash does worse.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Writing about cash programs is a funny thing. For most topics, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/402077/bad-news-bias-climate-change-economy-trump-negativity-good-news-optimism">readers exhibit a negativity bias</a>: They click more on bad news. But I’ve found that when I write about cash, <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/2018/9/13/17846190/cash-saves-lives-rwanda-usaid-foreign-aid-nutrition">big</a> flashy <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/11/25/20973151/givedirectly-basic-income-kenya-study-stimulus">headlines</a> about all the good it does get lots of hits, while nuanced pieces about benefits and limitations don’t. (Bad omen for this piece, I guess.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That’s a bad set of incentives, and I’m trying my best to resist them. People are working hard to understand what cash can and can’t do. It does them a disservice to only share the good things they learn.</p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The Nvidia chip deal that has Trump officials threatening to quit]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/458088/nvidia-trump-h20-chip-ai-china" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=458088</id>
			<updated>2026-02-18T16:25:00-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-08-15T06:45:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Artificial Intelligence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Innovation" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Whatever else can be said about the second Trump administration, it is always teaching me about parts of the Constitution I had forgotten were even in there. Case in point: Article I, Section 9, Clause 5 states that “No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State.” This is known as [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Donald Trump, left, and Jensen Huang stand in the White House." data-caption="President Donald Trump and Jensen Huang, co-founder and CEO of Nvidia, at the White House in Washington, DC, on April 30, 2025.﻿ | Ken Cedeno/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images﻿" data-portal-copyright="Ken Cedeno/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images﻿" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/08/gettyimages-2212187921.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	President Donald Trump and Jensen Huang, co-founder and CEO of Nvidia, at the White House in Washington, DC, on April 30, 2025.﻿ | Ken Cedeno/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images﻿	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">Whatever else can be said about the second Trump administration, it is always teaching me about parts of the Constitution I had forgotten were even in there.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Case in point: <a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S9-C5-1/ALDE_00013596/">Article I, Section 9, Clause 5</a> states that “No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State.” This is known as the export clause, not to be confused with the import-export clause (Article I, Section 10, Clause 2). The Supreme Court has repeatedly held, most recently in 1996’s <a href="https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/517/843/"><em>US v. IBM</em></a>, that this clause bans Congress and the states from imposing taxes on goods exported from one state to another or from the US to foreign countries.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This story was first featured in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Future Perfect newsletter</a>.</h2>



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<p class="has-text-align-none">I found myself reading <em>US v. IBM</em> after <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/08/10/nvidia-amd-china-chips-deal-trump/">President Donald Trump announced an innovative new deal</a> with chipmakers Nvidia and AMD. They can now export certain previously restricted chips to China but have to pay a 15 percent tax to the federal government on the proceeds. Now, I’m not a lawyer, but several people who <em>are</em> lawyers, like <a href="https://x.com/petereharrell/status/1954649784993652846">former National Security Council official Peter Harrell</a>, immediately interpreted this as a clearly unconstitutional export tax (and as illegal under the <a href="https://x.com/petereharrell/status/1954894555419205661">2018 Export Control Reform Act</a>, to boot).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">At this point, there’s something kind of sad and impotent about complaining that something Trump is doing is illegal and unconstitutional. It feels like yelling at the refs that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4GAj2v4BIE">the Harlem Globetrotters aren’t playing fair</a>; of course they aren’t, no one cares. The refs are unlikely to step in here, either. The parties with the standing to sue and block the export taxes are Nvidia and AMD, and they’ve already agreed to go along with it.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Maybe the best we can do is understand why this happened and what it means for the future of AI.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A brief history of the 2025 chip war</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While AMD is included in the deal, for all practical purposes, the AI chips in question are being made by Nvidia — and the main one in question is the H20.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As I <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/419791/trump-nvidia-h20-china-ai-chip">explained last month</a>, the H20 is entirely the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/11/trump-defends-deal-to-sell-nvidia-export-control-license-00503778?utm_source=chatgpt.com#:~:text=Nvidia%20developed%20the%20H20%20chip%20to%20sell%20in%20the%20Chinese%20market%20after%20the%20Biden%20administration%20imposed%20export%20controls%20on%20more%20advanced%20chips">product of US export controls</a> meant to limit export of excessively powerful chips to China. Nvidia took its flagship H100 chip, widely used for AI training, and dialed its processing power (as measured in floating point operations per second) way down, thus satisfying rules restricting advanced chips that the Biden administration put in place and Trump has maintained. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">At the same time, <a href="https://www.chinatalk.media/p/emergency-pod-h20-drama">it dialed up the memory bandwidth</a> (or the rate at which data moves between the chip and system memory) past even H100’s levels. That makes the H20 better than the H100 at answering queries to AI models in action, even if it’s worse at training those models to start with.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Critics saw this all as an <a href="https://ifp.org/the-h20-problem/">attempt to obey the letter of the export controls while violating their spirit</a>. It still meant Nvidia was exporting very useful, powerful chips to Chinese AI firms, which could use those to catch up with or leap ahead of US firms — precisely what the Biden administration was trying to prevent. In April, the Trump administration seemed to agree when it <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/15/nvidia-h20-chip-exports-hit-with-license-requirement-by-us-government/">sent Nvidia a letter</a> informing it that it would not receive export licenses for shipping H20s to China.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Then, in July, reportedly after both some bargaining with China over <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-15/nvidia-expects-license-to-sell-h20-ai-chip-to-china-again">rare earth metals</a> and a <a href="https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-ceo-promotes-ai-in-dc-and-china/#:~:text=In%20the%20U.S.%20capital%2C%20Huang%20met%20with%20President%20Trump%20and%20U.S.%20policymakers">personal entreaty</a> from Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang, Trump <a href="https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-ceo-promotes-ai-in-dc-and-china/">flip-flopped</a>; the chips could go to China after all. The only thing new this month is that he wants to get a cut of the proceeds.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That, of course, is an important new element, not least because it seems bad that the president is asserting the power to unilaterally impose new taxes without Congress. (At least with tariffs, Trump has some laws Congress passed he can cite theoretically granting the authority.) But the big question about H20s remains the same: Does this help Chinese companies like DeepSeek catch up with US companies like OpenAI? And how bad is that, if it happens?</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Talking through the pros and cons of H20s</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The concerns here are such that maybe the best way to understand them is to imagine a debate between a pro-export and anti-export advocate. I’m taking some poetic license here, in part because people in the sector are often averse to plainly saying what they mean on the record. But I think it’s a fair reflection of the debate as I’ve heard it.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Anti-Export Guy: </strong>Trump says he wants the US to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Americas-AI-Action-Plan.pdf">have “global dominance” in AI</a>, and here he is, just letting China have very powerful chips. This obviously hurts the US’s edge.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Pro-Export Guy: </strong>Does it? Again, the H20 is powerful, but it’s no H100. In any case, Chinese firms are totally allowed to rent out advanced AI chips in US-based cloud servers. DeepSeek could even <a href="https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/virtual-machines/sizes/gpu-accelerated/ndh100v5-series">rent time on an H100</a> that way. So, why are we freaking out about exporting a weaker chip?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Anti-Export: </strong>You act like the cloud option is a loophole —&nbsp;it’s a feature! That way, they’re dependent on US servers and companies. If Chinese AI firms ever start making dangerous systems, the US can shut off their access, and they’ll be out of luck.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Pro-Export: </strong>Again, <em>will</em> they be out of luck? There’s a third option after Nvidia exports and US servers. Huawei is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/huawei-shows-off-ai-computing-system-rival-nvidias-top-product-2025-07-26/">making its own AI-optimized chips</a>. Chinese firms don’t want to depend on foreign servers forever, and if we deny them Nvidia chips, they’ll run right over to Huawei chips.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Anti-Export: </strong>Saying you don’t need Nvidia chips when you have Huawei chips is like if you told someone 20 years ago that they don’t need an iPod because <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/technology/09pogue.html">they have a Zune</a>. Yes, Huawei chips <em>exist</em>, but they’re so much worse. They’re <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/08/leashing-chinese-ai-needs-smart-chip-controls.html">lower bandwidth than H20s</a>, Huawei’s <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3dab07d3-3d97-4f3b-941b-cc8a21a901d6">software libraries are full of bugs</a>, and the chips sometimes <a href="https://semianalysis.com/2025/04/16/huawei-ai-cloudmatrix-384-chinas-answer-to-nvidia-gb200-nvl72/">dangerously overheat</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Pro-Export: </strong>You’re exaggerating. By some metrics, Huawei’s latest systems (not just the chips, but the surrounding servers) <a href="https://semianalysis.com/2025/04/16/huawei-ai-cloudmatrix-384-chinas-answer-to-nvidia-gb200-nvl72/">outperform Nvidia’s top-end model</a> — even though that model uses B200s that are faster than H100s and lightyears faster than you’d ever be allowed to export to China. Yes, programmers will have to learn Huawei’s libraries, and transitioning from Nvidia’s will take time, but it’s doable. Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI have all <a href="https://www.chinatalk.media/p/emergency-pod-h20-drama">recently moved away from Nvidia chips</a> toward things like Google’s own TPUs or Amazon’s Trainiums. That took effort, but they did it.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Anti-Export: </strong>Sure, but those companies still use Nvidia’s too. OpenAI wants <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/openai-backs-ai-data-center-in-norway-with-100000-nvidia-gpus.html">100,000 chips in one Norwegian facility</a> alone. And while US companies may be trying out the competition, Chinese companies still <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/08/leashing-chinese-ai-needs-smart-chip-controls.html">vastly prefer Nvidia to Huawei</a>. DeepSeek reportedly <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/eb984646-6320-4bfe-a78d-a1da2274b092?utm_source=semafor">had to delay its latest model</a> because it tried to train it on Huawei chips but couldn’t. Even if Huawei chips were popular, Huawei lacks the production capacity to meet demand. It <a href="https://x.com/ohlennart/status/1955672732068446363">relies on smuggled components</a> to make its top-end chips and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-says-chinas-huawei-cant-make-more-than-200000-ai-chips-2025-2025-06-12/">can make at most 200,000</a> this year, compared to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/opinion/ai-chips-nvidia-china.html">roughly 10 million Nvidia chips</a> shipped annually. There’s no substitute for Nvidias.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What we’re fighting for</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I suppose we’ll see, in the next few months and in the rollout of new chips from competitors like Huawei, who got the better of that argument. China is reportedly <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-12/china-urges-firms-not-to-use-nvidia-h20-chips-in-new-guidance?taid=689acddfa73ccf000107dbd3&amp;utm_campaign=trueanthem&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;embedded-checkout=true">discouraging firms from using Nvidia chips</a> in the wake of the export tax deal, largely to encourage them to use domestic chips like Huawei, though they are clearly not <em>banning</em> the firms from using Nvidias if they prove necessary. It’s also <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/87a339f5-75e5-4003-b709-3d537b420656">investigating</a> whether the US is including spyware in them.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The bigger question this debate raises for me, and one I certainly can’t answer adequately here, is: To what degree is “beating China” on AI important for making the future of AI go well?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The answer for most US policymakers, and most people I know in the AI safety world, has been “very.” The Financial Times reports that <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0dbd7fee-66b0-4e08-916f-debfbb580f8c">some Trump officials are considering resigning</a> in protest over allowing China to get H20s. As Leopold Aschenbrenner, the AI analyst turned <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/billions-flow-to-new-hedge-funds-focused-on-ai-related-bets-48d97f41?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=ASWzDAjeseIKMXUrDmaKsOqdxfPje1znJnj7N8oXUcx6v8BP51arTzyYn0RNPwL39Lc%3D&amp;gaa_ts=689ceec4&amp;gaa_sig=1bcwqbxCAjPyqOOynYDK7fFmtVNOCzsvt9I9lHBZd7q57dGwNyI0wW_GyK1KGqJC88RxtyO-z0Gyd2LaceoEPw%3D%3D">hedge funder</a>, put it bluntly in his influential 2024 essay <a href="https://situational-awareness.ai/the-free-world-must-prevail/#The_authoritarian_peril">“Situational Awareness”</a>: “Superintelligence will give those who wield it the power to crush opposition, dissent, and lock in their grand plan for humanity.” If China “wins,” then, the result for humanity is permanent authoritarian repression.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">No doubt, the Beijing regime is brutal, and I have no faith that they will use AI wisely. I’m very confident they’ll wield it to oppress Chinese citizens. But it feels as though “staying ahead of China” has become the sine qua non of US AI policy.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I worry less that this focus on China is directionally wrong and more that it is exaggerated. The bigger danger is that <em>no one</em> can control these systems, rather than that China can, and that the focus on staying ahead of China will cause the US to speed <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/07/21/is-the-us-ready-for-the-next-war">deployment of automated weapons systems</a> that could prove deeply destabilizing and dangerous.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As with most aspects of AI, I feel like there’s a small island of things we’re all sure of and a vast ocean of unknowns. I think offering China H20s probably hurts AI safety a bit. I <em>think</em>.</p>
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