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	<title type="text">Izzie Ramirez | Vox</title>
	<subtitle type="text">Our world has too much noise and too little context. Vox helps you understand what matters.</subtitle>

	<updated>2026-02-09T17:52:03+00:00</updated>

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		<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Bad Bunny’s knockout halftime show, explained by a Puerto Rican]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/culture/478480/bad-bunny-puerto-rico-halftime-show-super-bowl-lx" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=478480</id>
			<updated>2026-02-09T12:52:03-05:00</updated>
			<published>2026-02-08T23:13:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Culture" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Music" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Sports" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Super Bowl" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[You don’t have to speak Spanish to understand that Bad Bunny’s blockbuster Super Bowl halftime show was a powerful one: rooted in place, history, politics, and most importantly, joy. But if you’re not intimately familiar with the oeuvre or the island, there are a lot of smaller details you might have missed — from all [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Bad Bunny, wearing a white and off-white outfit, carries a large Puerto Rican flag during the Super Bowl LX Halftime Show." data-caption="Bad Bunny performs in the Apple Music Halftime Show during Super Bowl LX at Levi&#039;s Stadium on February 8, 2026, in Santa Clara, California. | Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/02/gettyimages-2260108271.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Bad Bunny performs in the Apple Music Halftime Show during Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium on February 8, 2026, in Santa Clara, California. | Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">You don’t have to speak Spanish to understand that Bad Bunny’s blockbuster Super Bowl halftime show was a powerful one: rooted in place, history, politics, and most importantly, joy.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But if you’re not intimately familiar with the oeuvre or the island, there are a lot of smaller details you might have missed — from all of the <em>very</em> Puerto Rican activities in the intro to Bad Bunny’s light blue Puerto Rican flag.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As Vox’s biggest Bad Bunny enthusiast — his full name is Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio — I collected some of the most striking details from his history-making performance: the first Super Bowl halftime show to be performed entirely in Spanish, building on Shakira and Jennifer Lopez’s joint performance in 2020.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Here are the eight can’t-miss moments from Benito’s show:&nbsp;</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why I wrote this</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">This is my Super Bowl. I’m Bad Bunny’s biggest fan here at Vox. I’ve been listening to Benito since 2016 —&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OampN5hXqAU">back in his bald stud era</a>! — to the point where several of my coworkers texted me minutes after it was announced he was performing for the Super Bowl. I’ve seen him perform several times, including at <a href="https://www.vox.com/today-explained-podcast/459095/bad-bunny-puerto-rico-residency-history">his iconic residency in Puerto Rico</a> last year. To a casual listener, it may seem that Bad Bunny only sings about bagging baddies. That’s partially true. But for any Puerto Rican, from those on the archipelago to in the diaspora, there are deeper layers. I wanted y’all to feel like you, too, are in on the secret.&nbsp;</p>
</div>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>1. Why Bad Bunny’s jersey has the number 64</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Benito’s jersey, emblazoned with one of his last names, also features the initial number of reported deaths in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in 2017 — likely a gross undercount. That number, 64, <a href="https://hazards.colorado.edu/public-health-disaster-research/excess-mortality-and-associated-risk-factors-related-to-hurricane-maria-in-puerto-rico">became the center of debate</a>, as rural parts of the archipelago suffered from immense infrastructural damage and lack of electricity and clean water. The number was also used to minimize the severity of the storm. In the months following the devastation, the governor revised the toll to 2,975 deaths. <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972">Some studies put excess deaths</a> even higher at 4,645.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>2. The casita</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A fixture of his latest era, the casita is a pink, traditionally Puerto Rican-style concrete house. You’ll find these literally anywhere on the island, but they’re most popular in rural areas. <em>Debí Tirar Más Fotos </em>chronicles the challenges of forced gentrification caused by the island’s colonial status. While the beaches and fancy apartments in San Juan may be swooped up by wealthy tourists and short-term rental hosts, what remains are the old homes in the mountains — many of which have been abandoned because of unclear wills, inability to afford maintenance, and emigration for better opportunities. (This is the case for my own family, sadly.)</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/02/gettyimages-2260111384.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Dancers and celebrities at the halftime show" title="Dancers and celebrities at the halftime show" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Pedro Pascal, Cardi B, Jessica Alba, Stephani Sosa, Bad Bunny, Alix Earle and David Grutman perform at Super Bowl LX held at Levi&#039;s Stadium on February 8, 2026, in Santa Clara, California. | Christopher Polk/Billboard via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Christopher Polk/Billboard via Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Bad Bunny’s celebration of the casita as a party destination, full of celebrities from Pedro Pascal and Cardi B to Alix Earle and Young Miko, cements the fight to stay on the island. It’s also a fun continuation of his residency last summer on the island, where anyone who’s anyone had an invite.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Another fun fact about the casita: When Bad Bunny falls through the roof into that blue room, it’s a callback to the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSlqTX39CMM">music video visualizers</a> for his 2020 album, <em>YHLQMDLG</em>. He didn’t get to tour that album, so this is an Easter egg for some of his real OGs.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>3. “Nuevayol” with Toñita</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>Debí Tirar Más Fotos</em> is a love letter to the diaspora as much as it is to those on the island. New York has the highest density of Puerto Ricans outside of Puerto Rico, living in neighborhoods like Washington Heights and Alphabet City. One of Bad Bunny’s most special “if you know, you know” guests is Toñita, the owner of the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/24/dining/williamsburg-nyc-puerto-rican-social-club.html">Caribbean Social Club</a> in Williamsburg, who has a shoutout in the song. High-key, it’s a favorite place of mine to hang, dance, and play dominoes — a home away from home.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>4. The kid with the Grammy</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A powerful moment of tonight’s performance was when Bad Bunny leaves the party scene in New York and passes his Grammy for best album to a child who looks uncannily similar to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/02/us/liam-ramos-ice-detention-release-what-next-hnk">Liam Ramos,</a> the 5-year-old boy who was taken by Immigration and Customs Enforcement as bait. Benito’s speech against ICE plays in the background, but I think this is more of a symbolic gesture of passing on the mantle to the next generation. In either case, it speaks to faith and hope for the future.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>5. The jibaros on the powerlines&nbsp;</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After Hurricane Maria, there was a new push to “revitalize” Puerto Rico’s economy and infrastructure. Luma, a private electricity company, became the provider for the territory. But it didn’t work out as planned: Blackouts became the new norm. All the while, <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/23292674/bad-bunny-el-choli-concert-puerto-rico-politics-luma-gentrification">rich Americans moved to benefit from newly created tax breaks</a> as an <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/10/10/23391700/puerto-rico-hurricane-recovery-colonialism-debt">austerity regime</a> closed down schools. “El Apagón” sings of this tension, of the desire for outsiders to leave, but also an acknowledgment that “todos quieren ser latinos” — or “everyone wants to be Latino.”</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2026/02/gettyimages-2260613716.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Bad Bunny on top of a structure, performing" title="Bad Bunny on top of a structure, performing" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Bad Bunny during the halftime show. | Kevin Mazur/Getty Images for Roc" data-portal-copyright="Kevin Mazur/Getty Images for Roc" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">The men with the straw hats and white clothes are jibaros, a traditional subsistence farmer common in the mountains who typically use a curved machete to harvest crops and cut through sugarcane. They also have a kind of folk music that’s used as the basis of many Puerto Rican cries (“lelolai”). The jibaros climbing on the powerlines are a reflection of the changing times and how they’re getting left behind.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>6. Ricky Martin and “Lo Que Pasó a Hawaii”&nbsp;</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Ricky Martin — who is as much of a Puerto Rican icon as Marc Anthony, Jennifer Lopez, and Roberto Clemente —&nbsp;is most famous for crossing over into the American market with songs like “She Bangs” and “Livin’ la Vida Loca.” He first found fame through the boy band Menudo, but it really wasn’t until he started singing in English that he found international success.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Martin singing “Lo Que Paso a Hawaii” is a reclamation of his heritage. It’s a song dedicated to those who stay and those who are forced to leave and change. Bad Bunny performed for the Super Bowl entirely in Spanish, something that would have been unthinkable even a decade ago. Ricky Martin has always been proudly Puerto Rican, but it feels different when he can sing in his mother tongue alone.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>7. The light blue flag</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As Marissa Martinez wrote for Vox earlier this week, <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/478063/bad-bunny-super-bowl-puerto-rico-independence">explaining the rise of calls for Puerto Rican independence:</a> </p>

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p class="has-text-align-none">She and other fans will be ready to shout if she sees la bandera con azul celeste, the <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-latin/bad-bunny-la-mudanza-symbols-puerto-rican-independence-1235294268/">once-suppressed 1895 light-blue version of the current flag</a> associated with the pro-independence movement that Bad Bunny featured in the music video for “La Mudanza.”</p>



<p class="has-text-align-none">“They killed people here for waving the flag,” he sings on that track. “That’s why now I take it everywhere.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="BAD BUNNY - LA MuDANZA (Video Oficial) | DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qYAONSDnMrc?rel=0" allowfullscreen allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>8. God Bless America — all of America</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A quick Spanish lesson, first: If you’re talking about US citizens, you might think that “americano” is the direct translation. It’s actually “estadounidense” (literally United States-ian). Anyway, my point here is that “americano” encompasses all of the Americas. Bad Bunny closed his performance with a shoutout to all of the Americas, from Chile to Canada, and a procession of flags. On the jumbotron behind him, a simple message shone: “The only thing more powerful than hate is love.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Marina Bolotnikova</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Sigal Samuel</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Kenny Torrella</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Pratik Pawar</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Zack Beauchamp</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Shayna Korol</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Sara Herschander</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Anna North</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Joshua Keating</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Umair Irfan</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Scott</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[26 things we think will happen in 2026]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/473166/forecasts-2026-trump-congress-democrats-musk-artificial-intelligence-hurricanes" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=473166</id>
			<updated>2026-01-06T15:26:47-05:00</updated>
			<published>2026-01-01T06:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Animal Welfare" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Artificial Intelligence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Climate" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Culture" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Democracy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Innovation" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Public Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Science" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[For the seventh year in a row, the Future Perfect staff — plus assorted other experts from around Vox — convened near the end of the year to make forecasts about major events in 2026.&#160; Perhaps in keeping with the year we just experienced, the prognostication had grim overtones. Will the US remain an electoral [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="an illustration of a young woman wearing a red sweater looking through a telescope. An eyeball is seen in the lens. Behind her is an endless sky spotted with clouds" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/CeliaJacobs_Vox_PredictionsRevisited.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">For the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/392241/2025-new-year-predictions-trump-musk-artificial-intelligence">seventh year in a row</a>, the Future Perfect staff — plus assorted other experts from around Vox — convened near the end of the year to make forecasts about major events in 2026.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Perhaps in keeping with the year we just experienced, the prognostication had grim overtones. Will the US <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/460885/government-shutdown-democrats-trump-ezra-klein">remain an electoral democracy</a>? Will the country fall into a <a href="https://www.vox.com/money/473182/jobs-hiring-economy-us-market-linkedin">recession</a>? Will there be <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/24047940/china-us-war-taiwan-japan-key-role-explained">war in Taiwan</a>? Will more states <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-of-meat/414735/lab-grown-meat-ban-nebraska-montana-republicans">ban lab-cultivated meat</a>? Will a Category 5 hurricane make <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/466323/hurricane-melissa-landfall-jamaica-us-cuba-category-5">landfall in the US</a>? Will <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/370704/beyonce-cowboy-carter-cma-country-music-awards-snub-what-happened-history">Beyoncé release a rock album</a>? (Which is maybe just grim to me — there are so many better options!)&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As always, we try to avoid random<strong> </strong>guessing. Each prediction comes with a probability attached. That’s meant to give you a sense of our confidence in our forecasts. The idea here is to exemplify epistemic honesty — being as transparent as we can about what we know we know, what we know we don’t, and what we don’t know, we don’t know.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As we have every year, we’ll check back at the end of the year and provide a report card on how we did, whether our accuracy ends up being Nostradamus level, or more like a band of blindfolded monkeys throwing darts at a board. You can check out how we did in 2025 <a href="https://www.vox.com/e/473164">here</a>. We hope you enjoy reading — and don’t forget to <a href="https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/update_one%27s_priors">update your priors</a>. —<em>Bryan Walsh</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The United States</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The US falls from the ranks of liberal democracies in the leading V-DEM index, but remains an electoral democracy (60 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Entering 2026, assessing the health of American democracy is a bit of a puzzle.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There is no doubt that, in the first year of Donald Trump’s second presidency, American democracy has weakened significantly. He has smashed through constitutional constraints on his power, targeted his political opponents for repression, and run roughshod over civil liberties protections. It’s bad enough that three of the world’s top scholars of comparative democracy — Steven Levitsky, Daniel Ziblatt, and Lucan Way —&nbsp;have concluded that the United States has <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/american-authoritarianism-levitsky-way-ziblatt">crossed the line into a form of authoritarianism</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On the other hand, there is little indication that Trump has been able to create a lock on power&nbsp;— or even significantly compromise the fairness of elections. Democrats dominated elections in 2025, anti-government activists operate freely, and the media is (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/21/business/60-minutes-trump-bari-weiss.html?unlocked_article_code=1.-k8.a6Om.3DxClxIgjAME&amp;smid=tw-share">mostly</a>) as independent and critical as it was before Inauguration Day. When I spoke to Levitsky in December, he told me that Trump was failing “at consolidating autocratic power.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For this reason, my own view is that the United States is <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/472346/trump-democracy-2025-haphazard-authoritarian">still best classified as democracy</a>, albeit a much weakened one. V-DEM, the leading academic metric of democracy, distinguishes between two classes of democracy — the stronger liberal democracy and weaker electoral democracy. When V-Dem releases its ratings for the past year, I expect the United States will fall from the former into the latter.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">However, my confidence is low. What’s happening in the US is unprecedented for the world’s hegemon, and there is at least <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/measuring-democratic-backsliding/9EE2044CDA598BD815349912E61189D8">some credible evidence of bias in global democracy ratings</a> —&nbsp;making the ultimate outcome a bit tricky to say for sure. —<em>Zack Beauchamp</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Democrats will take back at least one house of Congress (95 percent)</h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2253089227.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Trump at a podium" title="Trump at a podium" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="President Donald Trump is an especially unpopular incumbent. | Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">If the last one was tricky, this one is straightforward. There are at least five clear reasons to believe Democrats are headed for a midterm romp.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Point 1: In modern American politics, the president’s party <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-presidents-party-almost-always-has-a-bad-midterm/">almost always performs poorly</a> in midterms.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Point 2: The Democratic Party is <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/08/27/democrats-education-class-divide-2026-midterms-00527583">increasingly strong with college-educated voters</a>, who tend to turn out more reliably in midterms than non-college voters — meaning the party has a structural leg up in those contests.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Point 3: Trump is an especially unpopular incumbent. The only 21st-century president with equivalently bad numbers at this point in his term <a href="https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/how-the-floor-could-fall-out-for">was Trump himself</a>, who experienced a massive electoral wipeout in the 2018 midterms. And there is <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/472103/trump-coalition-2024-maga-collapse-support-popular-affordability-young-latino">real evidence Trump’s coalition is fraying from the inside</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Point 4: Democrats have <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/what-the-democrats-good-night-means-for-2026-and-beyond">dominated 2025 elections so consistently</a> that it has become a meaningful indication of 2026 performance.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Point 5: Voter dissatisfaction is driven by a combination of affordability and concerns about his extreme policies in areas like immigration, and the White House <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/472786/trump-primetime-speech-wednesday-inflation-pointless">seems either unable or unwilling to change</a> in response to these concerns.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For all these reasons, Democrats are basically a lock to take back the House — barring hard-to-pull-off election tampering or some kind of unforeseen event that transforms the political environment. The Senate map is unfavorable, making it a much tougher fight, but they’re still competitive given the fundamentals. —<em>ZB</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">At least one major function remains at the Education Department (70 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/402336/department-of-education-trump-musk-doge-schools">dismantling of the Education Department</a> was one of the biggest stories in the early days of Trump’s second term, as the administration <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/403568/conservatives-decades-long-quest-to-destroy-the-department-of-education">fired hundreds of staffers</a> and Education Secretary Linda McMahon promised to lead the department on its “<a href="https://www.ed.gov/about/news/speech/secretary-mcmahon-our-departments-final-mission">historic final mission</a>.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The president can’t actually dissolve the department without an act of Congress, but his administration has been <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/24/the-education-department-gave-another-agency-power-to-distribute-money-it-hasnt-gone-smoothly-00663976">moving bits of it to other agencies</a> since the spring. In November, the White House announced perhaps the biggest shift yet, moving programs supporting K-12 students to the Labor Department, with other functions parceled out to the Departments of Health and Human Services, Interior, and State.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">However, experts have <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/402336/department-of-education-trump-musk-doge-schools">long warned</a> that other departments don’t have the expertise to take over Education staffers’ work, and the moves that have already occurred have reportedly been <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/24/the-education-department-gave-another-agency-power-to-distribute-money-it-hasnt-gone-smoothly-00663976">plagued with problems</a>. Now <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/29/advocates-push-for-education-department-to-keep-programs-for-children-with-disabilities-00669701">Republican lawmakers</a> are starting to voice concerns about what happens if the administration tries to transfer special education programs to another department, a move it has not yet made but hasn’t ruled out.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Trump administration has already done lasting damage to the department, <a href="https://hechingerreport.org/proof-points-trump-upended-education/">experts say</a>. But getting rid of an agency is a lot harder in practice than in theory, and with Republicans starting to throw up warning signs, it’s more likely than not that at least one function of the department will remain through the end of next year. <em>—Anna North</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Supreme Court will rule against Trump in the tariffs cases currently before the Court (70 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">To date, at least <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/20250617121437410_No.-___Learning_Resources_Appendix.pdf">three</a> <a href="https://www.vox.com/donald-trump/414794/trump-tariffs-supreme-court-vos-selections-oregon">federal</a> <a href="https://www.cafc.uscourts.gov/opinions-orders/25-1812.OPINION.8-29-2025_2566151.pdf">courts</a> have ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), when he imposed a broad range of constantly shifting tariffs on foreign imports. The Supreme Court is likely to join these three courts before the close of its current term.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For the most part, this Supreme Court’s Republican supermajority has been <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/460270/supreme-court-republican-partisan-hacks-donald-trump">extraordinarily loyal to Trump</a>. This is, after all, the same Court that held that Trump <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/394053/supreme-court-trump-immunity-new-york">may use the powers of the presidency to commit crimes</a>. But the Republican justices do sometimes break with Trump on <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/6/17/22538462/supreme-court-obamacare-california-texas-stephen-breyer-standing-individual-mandate-constitution">issues that divide Republicans</a>, and especially on <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/407196/supreme-court-trump-tariffs-emily-ley-paper">issues that divide conservative legal elites</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The tariffs cases are just such an issue. At least some of the lawsuits challenging the tariffs were <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/407196/supreme-court-trump-tariffs-emily-ley-paper">brought by right-leaning legal shops</a> that hew to the GOP’s more traditional, libertarian views on foreign trade. Numerous Republican luminaries have <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/466510/supreme-court-trump-tariffs-loyalty-test-major-questions">joined briefs opposing the tariffs</a>,&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Including former Sen. John Danforth (R-MO), an early mentor to Justice Clarence Thomas. Over the spring, at a conference hosted by the conservative Federalist Society, a number of speakers <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/412624/supreme-court-federalist-society-donald-trump-tariffs">criticized the tariffs and questioned their legality</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">At the <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/467485/supreme-court-tariff-argument-trump-learning-resources-vos-selections">Supreme Court argument on the tariffs</a> in November, the Court’s Republicans did, indeed, appear divided on whether to back Trump. While some members of the Court defended the tariffs, Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett — all Republicans — asked very skeptical questions of Trump’s lawyer.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It is always dangerous business to predict that this Supreme Court will break with a Republican president, which is why I still think there is a 30 percent chance that Trump prevails. And even if Trump does lose this round of litigation, he is likely to attempt to reinstate at least some of his tariffs by <a href="https://www.vox.com/donald-trump/414794/trump-tariffs-supreme-court-vos-selections-oregon">invoking other statutes</a>. But my prediction will come true if the Court rules that Trump exceeded his authority under the IEEPA when he imposed his tariffs on imports. <em>—Ian Millhiser</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump will replace at least one member of the Supreme Court by the end of 2026 (75 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump is unpopular — a recent Associated Press poll <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-poll-approval-economy-immigration-inflation-crime-9e5bd096964990e040bc4bacd9fcac21">pegs his approval rating at 36 percent</a> — and his party <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/467434/virginia-new-jersey-elections-2025-results-trump-affordability">just got hosed in the 2025 elections</a>. Republicans are still favored to hold onto the Senate after the 2026 midterms, largely because <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/11/6/21550979/senate-malapportionment-20-million-democrats-republicans-supreme-court">the Senate is malapportioned</a> to favor small states that tend to vote for the GOP, but the Republican Party is in a deep enough hole that it could lose both houses of Congress.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And if the Democrats do take the Senate, they can prevent Trump from ever confirming another federal judge again. Which brings us to 75-year-old Justice Samuel Alito.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Alito is the Court’s most unapologetic partisan. If you want a full rundown of Alito’s history of rulings favoring the Republican Party, I encourage you to read my profile of him entitled “<a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/350339/samuel-alito-republican-party-scotus">The Republican Party’s man inside the Supreme Court</a>.” The short of it is that he’s often willing to embrace arguments that <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/19-840_6jfm.pdf">even his fellow Republican justices find embarrassing</a>, at least when those arguments favor the GOP or its preferred policy outcomes.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If Alito retires while Republicans still control the Senate, he can be confident that his replacement will be a Republican who shares his views on the overwhelming majority of issues. He might even be replaced by <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/403650/supreme-court-fcc-consumers-research-nondelegation-andrew-oldham">one of his former law clerks</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If Alito does not retire, by contrast, he risks losing his last chance to retire under a Republican president and a Republican Senate. In the worst case scenario (from Alito’s perspective), he could die after Democrats regain both the White House and the Senate, ensuring that he will be replaced by his ideological opposite.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There’s also a chance that a different justice could either retire or die. Thomas is 77. Justice Sonia Sotomayor is 71. Roberts is 70. If any justice leaves the Court in 2026, a Republican Senate will almost certainly confirm Trump’s nominee to replace them.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That said, there is a chance that Alito and his fellow Republican justices are enjoying the power that comes with being part of a six-justice supermajority so much that they won’t want to give it up. But Alito has been such a reliable partisan during his time on the bench that it would be surprising if he denied his party its best chance to replace him with a younger version of himself. —<em>IM</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The world</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Benjamin Netanyahu will not be the prime minister of Israel by the end of the year (65 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Netanyahu has led the Israeli government for 15 of the last 16 years. He has weathered <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/21/20974465/benjamin-netanyahu-indicted-bribery-corruption">indictments</a>, a <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23301390/trump-investigation-mar-a-lago-search-netanyahu">criminal trial</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/24114496/benjamin-netanyahu-ultra-orthodox-conscription-coalition-gaza">coalition fractures</a>, and of course the <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/464774/gaza-ceasefire-october-netanyahu-peace-last">horrors of the Gaza war</a>. Why would anyone bet against him in the 2026 elections (currently scheduled for October)?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The answer, I think, is that he has been living on borrowed time since October 7, 2023.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After that day’s atrocities, Netanyahu’s poll numbers collapsed — with most Israelis blaming him and his government for Hamas’s successful attack. His survival since then has had nothing to do with voters, and everything to do with coalition management: He has managed to prevent his far-right coalition partners from defecting and triggering early elections. But in 2026, there will be elections —&nbsp;and all indications are that his coalition doesn’t have the votes.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“The Netanyahu government has not been able to win a majority in any credible survey,” Dahlia Scheindlin, a leading Israeli pollster, <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/457803/israel-gaza-starvation-polls-public-opinion">told me last year</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That said, you really do not want to count Netanyahu out. And there are easy-to-imagine scenarios where he survives despite his obvious problems.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Currently, the best-polling opposition party is led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. While Bennett is <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/ex-israeli-pm-accuses-netanyahu-of-treason-over-alleged-qatar-funding-2462ee5b">strongly anti-Netanyahu</a>, he is also a right-winger —&nbsp;and to form an anti-Netanyahu government, polls suggest he’d likely need support from a broad coalition, including the left and even an Arab party. You can easily imagine Bennett failing to overcome the opposition’s ideological divisions and striking some kind of deal with Netanyahu instead. Or you could imagine protracted coalition negotiations that leave Netanyahu in power for months after the October elections, even if he is deposed in 2027.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The point is that there’s a lot of uncertainty here. But I’m going to bet on the most consistent thing: Polls showing that a clear majority of Israelis are done with Bibi. —<em>ZB</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">There will not be a ceasefire, agreed to by both Ukraine and Russia and observed for at least 30 days, by December 31, 2026 (60 percent)</h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2253142518.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A service member enters a building where a window has been destroyed." title="A service member enters a building where a window has been destroyed." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;A salon damaged by Russian bombing in Kostiantynivka, Ukraine, December 28, 2025.&lt;/p&gt; | Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">The Trump administration has been pushing hard for a ceasefire deal in recent weeks and there was some optimism it <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/16/europe/trump-ukraine-russia-peace-deal-berlin-intl">might end before Christmas</a>. But the underlying dynamics of the conflict are still the same and still make an end to the war in the coming months more unlikely.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Despite the <a href="https://en.zona.media/article/2025/12/05/casualties_eng-trl">heavy casualties</a> Russia is taking, the damage to its economy <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/12/04/american-sanctions-are-putting-russia-under-pressure">inflicted by sanctions</a>, and <a href="https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-23-2025/">the slow pace of progress</a> on the battlefield, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he is winning the war and is unlikely to be satisfied with any deal that does not severely curtail Ukraine’s sovereignty. It’s not even clear if the <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/469993/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-zelenskyy">28-point plan</a> cooked up by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in November, which was heavily tilted toward Russian interests, would have been enough to satisfy him.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On the other side, Ukrainian leaders mostly accept at this point that they’re unlikely to regain all of the territory currently held by Russia by military force. But they are just as unlikely to accept Trump’s recent demands that they cede the so-called <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ec490909-80e5-48ff-a518-8185a6a5d2c7">fortress belt</a> of heavily defended positions in eastern Ukraine, something that would be suicidal fairly likely event that Russia restarts its war in a few years. And while <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/ukraines-zelenskyy-abandons-hopes-joining-nato-peace-talks-rcna249106">NATO membership may be off the table</a> at this point, Ukraine is likely to insist on security guarantees from NATO countries that will probably be unacceptable to the Russian side.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While US support for Ukraine gives it significant leverage, European countries are now the primary economic and <a href="https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/ukraine-support-europe-largely-fills-the-us-aid-withdrawal-lead-byn-the-nordics-and-the-uk/">military backers of the Ukrainian war effort</a> and Ukrainians are making far more weapons of their own, including the ubiquitous drones that are playing such a vital role on the battlefield.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For all Trump’s public attacks on Ukraine, the United States is still providing intelligence support to the Ukrainian military and selling the country for weapons (in many cases, paid for by Europe). And if the past year’s back and forth is any indication, Trump’s current pro-Moscow tilt could shift.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump’s success with the Gaza ceasefire showed that these deals can come together much more quickly than many expect, but for a variety of reasons, the combatants in Ukraine are less susceptible to American pressure and less willing to call off the fighting. Most likely, Ukraine is facing a fifth year of devastating and brutal war. —<em>Joshua Keating</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Between January 1 and December 31, 2026, China does not impose a full blockade of Taiwan or launch a declared invasion (75 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2021, Adm. Phil Davidson, then the head of Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress he believed China would likely seek to achieve its ambition of taking control of Taiwan “in the next six years.” We’re now approaching the later end of what has become known in defense circles as the “<a href="https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/05/07/how-dc-became-obsessed-with-a-potential-2027-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/">Davidson window</a>.” But for the moment, war — or something close to it — still seems unlikely. The biggest question mark around a military scenario in Taiwan is whether the US would intervene directly to defend the island. And the best case for the argument that China will move soon is that President Donald Trump’s words and actions <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/466624/xi-trump-trade-nukes-taiwan">have given little reason to believe</a> he would do that. But an amphibious invasion of a mountainous and densely populated island with a hostile population <a href="https://www.stimson.org/2025/rethinking-the-threat-why-china-is-unlikely-to-invade-taiwan/">is still a daunting prospect</a> even if the US doesn’t get involved.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A blockade or quarantine might be more likely, something <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/390895/china-taiwan-conflict">Taiwan’s economy is vulnerable to</a>, but the island’s importance to the global tech economy means the fallout from a blockade would be both massive and widespread. (One analysis predicted a blockade of Taiwan would cost the world <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/390895/china-taiwan-conflict">$2 trillion in lost economic activity</a>.) And the US is not the only country that might come to Taiwan’s aid: Japan’s new prime minister recently enraged Beijing by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-12/takaichi-s-taiwan-comment-in-china-spat-apparently-unscripted">suggesting a Taiwan crisis</a> would be a survival threatening situation for Japan, meaning it would have legal justification to deploy its military.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">To put it bluntly, at the moment, Xi Jinping has a good thing going with Trump, who is seeking better trade relations with China and has even gone so far as to agree to sell advanced <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/471884/nvidia-chips-china-trump-huang">microchips that the Chinese never even asked</a> for. China may also be holding out for the possibility of “peaceful reunification.” The island’s major opposition party, the Kuomintang, now <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/04/world/asia/taiwan-opposition-cheng-china.html">favors much closer relations with Beijing</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">We should absolutely expect more economic pressure on Taiwan and its supporters abroad, more moves to block diplomatic contacts between Taiwan and the outside world, more influence campaigns and propaganda directed at the Taiwanese public, and even possible “gray zone” attacks targeting Taiwan’s infrastructure, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/facing-new-china-grey-zone-threat-taiwan-steps-up-sea-cable-patrols-2025-09-11/">such as undersea communications cables</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine showed that sometimes autocratic leaders can make risky moves that seem to make little sense from the outside, but assuming Xi is a bit more level-headed, he’s unlikely to gamble it all on an invasion or blockade in the coming year. —<em>JK</em>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Economy</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">At least two more states will pass laws effectively ending apartment bans (single-family-only zoning) in most residential areas statewide (45 percent)&nbsp;&nbsp;</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The last few years have seen the birth of a new paradigm in how housing in the United States is regulated and built. Ever since the widespread adoption of zoning codes over the last century, it’s been local governments — cities, suburbs, small towns — that decide what’s allowed to be built, usually to an extreme degree of prescriptiveness. Most residential land across the country is zoned exclusively for detached single-family homes — no duplexes, triplexes, or apartment buildings allowed. That is, as I wrote about <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/417892/suburbs-sunbelt-housing-affordability-yimby">last year</a>, what’s fundamentally at the root of the great American housing shortage and housing affordability crisis.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But those rules are steadily, if slowly and unevenly, starting to change. Many states have passed legislation that begins to unwind the morass of local obstacles to building homes, with single-family-exclusive zoning being a frequent target. While this trend is technically a form of centralization, I think it’s better to think of it as a kind of deregulation that gives power back to people to create things in their communities. <a href="https://www.hcd.ca.gov/sites/default/files/docs/planning-and-community/sb-9-fact-sheet.pdf">California</a>, <a href="https://www.maine.gov/decd/sites/maine.gov.decd/files/inline-files/DECD_LD%202003_digital.pdf">Maine</a>, <a href="https://archive.legmt.gov/bills/2023/BillPdf/SB0323.pdf">Montana</a>, <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/lcd/Housing/Documents/OAR660046_EXHIBIT_A-Medium_Cities_Middle_Housing_Model_Code.pdf">Oregon</a>, <a href="https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2023-06-06/vermont-housing-bill-becomes-law-easing-rules-for-some-new-construction-amid-home-shortage">Vermont</a>, and <a href="https://mrsc.org/stay-informed/mrsc-insight/july-2023/major-changes-to-washington-housing-laws">Washington</a> all now have laws requiring local governments to allow at least duplexes, and in some cases even more homes, on lots zoned for single-family homes in many residential areas. Several other states are considering similar bills, and more will probably be introduced this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">These state-level zoning preemption laws are, in reality, usually enormously complex and often include carveouts and exceptions that were needed to get the legislation over the finish line because local opposition to new housing can be fierce. So while I think we’re extremely likely to see more states pass housing liberalization laws in 2026, I think the chances that two more states pass laws with my exact criteria — ending single-family zoning in the residential areas that cover most of the state’s population — are just under 50-50.&nbsp;—<em>Marina Bolotnikova&nbsp;</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Total billionaire wealth will exceed $17 trillion, as calculated by the UBS Billionaire Ambitions report (85 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The grass is green. The sky is blue. The rich get richer.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Some things are just common sense. But actually, the wealth of the very wealthiest people does not always get bigger year after year. Take 2022, for example, when <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2022/12/26/23517732/stock-market-economy-inflation-crypto-2022-in-review">stock market woes</a> made the world’s billionaires about <a href="https://advisors.ubs.com/mediahandler/media/682129/UBS_Billionaire_Ambitions_Report_2024_single_pages.pdf">$2 trillion poorer</a> than they were the year before. Womp, womp.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But ever since then, the ultra-rich have indeed only gotten richer. A new billionaire was born <a href="https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/our-solutions/private-wealth-management/insights/billionaires-ambition-report.html">every 37 hours</a> of 2025, lifting the total number of billionaires to nearly 3,000 and their collective wealth to a record-shattering $15.8 trillion, according to the UBS Billionaire Ambitions report. Many have gotten rich off the <a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/464187/openai-chatgpt-ai-bubble-nvidia-stock">AI boom</a>, while others are heirs and heiresses, whose inheritances grew by a collective $297.8 billion last year as part of a giant wealth transfer that’s just getting started.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As long as nobody <a href="https://www.vox.com/podcasts/466649/ai-bubble-burst-data-centers-economy">bursts their bubble</a>, the ultra-rich will probably just get richer in 2026. And if their wealth keeps growing at the rate it has been, they’ll very likely be sitting on over $17 trillion by the time UBS publishes its report next winter. —<em>Sara Herschander</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The US will experience a recession in 2026 (55 percent)</h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-1084688040.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Stock traders look anxious on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange" title="Stock traders look anxious on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;Even in “good” times, the US economy is a balancing act between consumer spending, business investment, financial conditions, and policy choices.&lt;/p&gt; | Spencer Platt/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Spencer Platt/Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Recession forecasts are the meteorology of economics: Everyone complains when you’re wrong, and nobody sends thank you notes when you’re right. Still, the reason I’m slightly over 50 percent is simple: Late-cycle economic risk is real, and the list of plausible triggers — the <a href="https://www.vox.com/podcasts/466649/ai-bubble-burst-data-centers-economy">AI bubble popping</a>, trade policy <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/473085/us-china-rare-earths-2025">finally hitting home</a>, a <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/390895/china-taiwan-conflict">major international crisis</a> — is long.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Even in “good” times, the US economy is a balancing act between consumer spending, business investment, financial conditions, and whatever policy choices Washington makes in a given week. It doesn’t take a Great Depression-level shock to tip that balance — sometimes it’s just interest rates staying tighter longer than expected, a confidence shock, or a geopolitical event that hits energy and trade. And if 2020 taught us anything, it’s that the economy can fall down the stairs faster than it can climb them.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For scoring, I’d define “recession” as a <a href="https://www.nber.org/">National Bureau of Economic Research-dated</a> recession that begins in calendar year 2026. If the NBER hasn’t ruled by the time we do our year-end grading (they are not known for sprinting), we’ll use a proxy: two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth in 2026.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Why only 55 percent? Because the US has a stubborn capacity to muddle through — until it doesn’t. —<em>BW</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Animals</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The share of cage-free eggs in the US will not surpass 50 percent in 2026 (60 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">At the end of 2024, cage-free eggs accounted for 38.7 percent of the US egg supply. By September 2025 — the most recent data available — that figure hit 45.3 percent. It was a major shift for such a short period, and equates to millions of egg-laying hens no longer <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22331708/eggs-cages-chickens-hens-meat-poultry">spending their entire lives in tiny cages</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I think that in 2026, this trend will continue, but not fast enough for the US egg supply to reach 50 percent cage-free by the end of September. And that’s because a few big events occurred in 2025 that spurred this momentum that won’t occur next year.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The first is that laws in three states — Arizona, Colorado, and Michigan — that require eggs sold to be cage-free went into effect in 2025 (though <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/400361/bird-flu-egg-shortage-nevada-cage-free">Arizona quickly delayed its implementation</a> by years). No new laws will go into effect next year.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Additionally, over the last decade, hundreds of food companies pledged to source cage-free eggs, and many set a 2025 deadline. While a lot of them have not followed through on their pledge, a lot inched closer during this deadline year.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I could be — and hope I will be — wrong, and there are two reasons why I might lose this prediction. The first is that animal advocacy groups are now focused on pressuring grocery chains to meet their cage-free pledges, and if they’re successful in 2026, that could quickly tip the scales, since grocery stores account for where most eggs are sold. Second, there’s bird flu — if the virus were to disproportionately hit cage farms this winter and spring, that would affect the ratio of cage-free to cage eggs for much of 2026.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The food industry’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22331708/eggs-cages-chickens-hens-meat-poultry">rapid move away from cages</a> for egg-laying hens is a major success story for the modern animal rights movement, and hitting 50 percent of the US egg supply will be an important milestone. I think it’ll happen soon — let’s say by March 1, 2027 — but I don’t think it’s in the cards by the end of September, 2026. —<em>Kenny Torrella</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">At least one US state will ban lab-grown meat in 2026 (60 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2024, <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/2/14/24069722/political-ban-cell-cultivated-lab-grown-meat-plant-based-labeling-laws">Florida and Alabama</a> banned the production and sale of lab-grown, or <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23768224/eat-just-good-meat-upside-cell-cultivated-chicken-lab-grown">cell-cultivated, meat</a>. They represented unabashed protectionism — favoring livestock farmers over startup food companies — and hollow, conspiratorial culture war posturing (when he signed the bill into law, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis implied this was a contest between real Floridians and globalist elites).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Even though many ranchers and farming groups have opposed the bans, arguing that it looks bad to outlaw your competition, five more states passed similar laws in 2025 — three with full-on bans (Mississippi, Montana, and Nebraska), and two with two-year bans (Texas and Indiana). In many other states, lawmakers introduced similar bills that failed, and I figure at least one will succeed next year (for the purpose of accuracy, I’ll count a temporary ban as a ban).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I’m not particularly confident, however, because some states seemed to have settled on strict, unfavorable labeling requirements for cell-cultivated meat producers as opposed to banning the product altogether. And in some states, the bills have proven controversial (for example, many <a href="https://cowboystatedaily.com/2025/06/06/why-wyoming-isnt-joining-the-ban-on-lab-grown-meat/?">ranchers in Wyoming were opposed</a> to a ban on libertarian grounds).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">At this moment, the bans mean little in practical terms — only a few restaurants around the country serve cell-cultivated meat, and in small quantities. But the bans could pose a problem for the industry down the road if they figure out how to affordably produce cell-cultivated meat at scale. —<em>KT</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The US will authorize mass bird flu vaccination for at least one major US poultry category — egg-laying hens, broiler chickens, or turkeys (35 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The US is entering its fifth year of a truly ghastly bird flu outbreak. It’s caused dozens of human bird flu cases across the country, it’s sparked an <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24128700/bird-fludairy-meat-industry-h5n1-cows-milk-eggs-safety">outbreak in dairy cows</a>, it’s sent egg prices soaring, and it’s been catastrophic for the tens of millions of chickens and turkeys who’ve died <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23963820/bird-flu-surge-us-ventilation-shutdown-veterinarians">horrible deaths on infected farms</a>. And all this is happening despite the fact that we already <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-grants-conditional-clearance-zoetis-bird-flu-vaccine-poultry-2025-02-14/">have vaccines</a> that could dramatically blunt the damage.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So why, four years into this outbreak, have we managed to do so little to get avian flu under control?&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It has more to do with bureaucracy and economic interests than scientific capacity. The American chicken meat industry exports a significant share of its product abroad, and the fear is that our trading partners would reject US chicken because of the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/11/22/23472207/bird-flu-vaccine-turkey-prices-chickens-hens-cull-depopulation">challenge</a> of determining whether a poultry bird is infected with avian flu or simply has antibodies from vaccination. So instead of vaccinating, the US has resorted to <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23963820/bird-flu-surge-us-ventilation-shutdown-veterinarians">mass killing chickens and turkeys</a> — quite painfully — in a mostly unsuccessful attempt to control the spread.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As the outbreak stretches on, and egg and turkey producers <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/466446/bird-flu-vaccine-eggs-chicken">complain that they aren’t allowed to vaccinate</a> because of the chicken industry’s trade concerns, pressure has mounted for US regulators to approve a plan to start vaccinating poultry birds across the country — something that ought to be a no-brainer given that, as Vox’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/466446/bird-flu-vaccine-eggs-chicken">Kenny Torrella has pointed out</a>, the costs of managing the outbreak have been much higher than the value of the chicken industry’s exports. As of last summer, the US Department of Agriculture was reportedly <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/usda-develops-potential-plan-vaccinate-poultry-bird-flu-2025-06-20/">working</a> on such a plan.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Will we start routinely vaccinating in 2026? We’re closer than we have been in any previous year, but securing assurances from trade partners is hard, long work, as is devising a plan for vaccine rollout that satisfies those partners, and all indications are that we’re not close yet. If we start to see more severe bird flu spread in 2026 and sustained spikes in egg prices, the USDA’s calculus might change. But for now, I think we’re less likely than not to see the agency authorize vaccination as part of a standard avian flu control program in poultry birds (rather than just as part of limited pilots or experimental uses). —<em>MB</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Climate</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Global data center electricity demand will stay below 3 percent of total electricity in 2026 (80 percent)</h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2249621657.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A sign that reads No Data Center sits on a snowy lawn in front of a farm" title="A sign that reads No Data Center sits on a snowy lawn in front of a farm" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;A sign on a rural Michigan road opposes a planned $7 billion data center on southeast Michigan farm land. Opponents say the Data Center could raise residential electricity rates and endanger the water supply.&lt;/p&gt; | &lt;p&gt;Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images&lt;/p&gt;" data-portal-copyright="&lt;p&gt;Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images&lt;/p&gt;" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Per the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/energy-demand-from-ai">International Energy Agency</a>, data centers consumed 1.5 percent of the world’s electricity in 2024, around 415 terawatt-hours. Though these massive, energy-hungry facilities are proliferating at a rapid pace, they’re still a small fraction of humanity’s energy use.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Tech companies say they need many more of them, particularly to run their AI products, but <a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/471138/ai-data-centers-electricity-prices-populist-backlash-explained">data centers have an image problem</a>. They are starting to <a href="https://time.com/7308925/elon-musk-memphis-ai-data-center/">wear out their welcome</a> in some communities and are being <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/12/arizona-city-rejects-data-center-after-ai-lobbying-push-00688543">thoroughly shunned</a> in others. Only <a href="https://heatmap.news/politics/data-center-survey">44 percent of Americans</a> say they would want one of these giant humming boxes near them. Speculation around their energy demand is already <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/465032/data-center-electricity-power-bill-increasing-maryland-pjm">starting to raise electricity prices</a> for consumers in some markets.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Now some environmental groups and activists are already <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/465032/data-center-electricity-power-bill-increasing-maryland-pjm">calling for a moratorium</a> on new data center construction, not just voting down individual projects, and at least one community has <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/news/dekalb-leaders-extend-data-center-moratorium-to-june-as-residents-raise-health-cost-concerns/">officially imposed a pause</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There are also strains on the global supply chain for data center components, so even places ready to go on a construction spree will have to wait for parts to catch up. Additionally, more power generators are continuing to come online, so the percentage share that goes to data centers won’t rise as quickly. —<em>Umair Irfan</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">At least one Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the continental US, as defined by the National Hurricane Center (10 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The United States lucked out in 2025 with no major hurricane hitting the mainland. However, it’s only a matter of time before one does so again. The question is how strong it will be. There are typically <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/">14 storms</a> strong enough to be given a name in any year, but only 45 were ever known to have reached Category 5 strength, with sustained winds at 158 miles per hour. Fewer still maintained their full strength as they reached the shore.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The last Category 5 hurricane to hammer the continental US was <a href="https://www.weather.gov/tae/hurricanemichael2018">Hurricane Michael in 2018</a>, so baseline chances of this happening again next year are fairly low. The year 2026 is <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/a-subtle-return-of-la-nina/">poised to start as a La Niña year</a>, where the surface of the Pacific Ocean cools to below-average temperatures. That tends to create <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/24145756/la-nina-2024-el-nino-heat-hurricane-record-temperature-pacific">more favorable conditions for hurricanes</a> in the Atlantic Ocean. The pattern is then lonely to shift into a <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">neutral phase</a> that has minimal effects on cyclones in the Atlantic. The other key variable is how much heat is in the Atlantic Ocean. Hurricanes run on warm water, and the <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=natlan">fever of record-high temperatures broke in the Atlantic Ocean</a> this year. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Add to that the variability in how hurricanes travel and you have a fairly low chance of the most powerful type of hurricane hitting the continental US at maximum power next year. —<em>UI</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Science and technology&nbsp;</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">At least one state-of-the-art AI system can complete a task that takes humans 16 hours, succeeding on at least half of its attempts (75 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">One of the past year’s most striking AI-related visuals was a graph showing that the length of tasks AI can do is doubling every seven months. This may seem a bit in the weeds, but it’s actually really important, because it speaks to AI’s growing ability to work autonomously. According to METR, the research group that made this graph, Claude Opus 4.5 has already hit four hours and 49 minutes, which means that the chatbot is expected to succeed at least 50 percent of the time on tasks that took humans that long. Extrapolating from this graph, I predict that at least one AI model will hit at least 16 hours by the end of 2026. I’m making this prediction with 75 percent confidence.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I could go higher, but I won’t, because a few variables could still change the trajectory. For example, if compute growth slows, we could see substantial delays in capability milestones. I also want to emphasize that you shouldn’t take this to mean that AI will put you out of work by the end of 2026: What’s being measured here is AI’s ability to succeed at very particular tasks, not its ability to generalize to the whole of what you can do. — <em>Sigal Samuel</em>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-29-at-3.28.39%E2%80%AFPM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="The length of tasks AI can do is doubling every 7 months" title="The length of tasks AI can do is doubling every 7 months" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Congress will not pass, and Trump will not sign, any comprehensive federal legislation primarily focused on AI safety (90 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The White House has come out strongly against state-level AI regulation, releasing an <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/eliminating-state-law-obstruction-of-national-artificial-intelligence-policy/">executive order</a> in December saying that the “Administration must act with the Congress to ensure that there is a minimally burdensome national standard — not 50 discordant State ones.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But it’s very unlikely that we’ll see comprehensive federal legislation in 2026 requiring AI companies to implement safety plans. For one thing, there is no consensus on what shape such a national framework should take. For another, the White House’s attempt to ban state-level regulation (with the idea of putting in a national framework instead) has proven <a href="https://time.com/7341296/republican-backlash-trump-ai-executive-order/">extremely unpopular, including among Republicans</a>. Plus, with so much <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulocarvao/2025/11/28/150-million-ai-lobbying-war-fuels-the-fight-over-preemption/">tech lobbying</a> aimed at relaxing regulation rather than entrenching it, there’s little incentive for the White House to push through comprehensive federal legislation on safety.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Taken together, all this leads me to think that while Congress may pass more specific AI provisions in 2026 (for example, related to national defense), it won’t pass a comprehensive national standard when it comes to actually keeping us safe from AI. —<em>SS</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">At least one primarily AI-generated song reaches No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart (60 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This is the kind of prediction that sounds silly right up until it’s not. Wholly AI-generated music has already crossed one major threshold, when the country track “<a href="https://holler.country/news/breaking/who-the-heck-is-breaking-rust-the-ai-generated-artist-topping-the-spotify-and-billboard-charts-with-walk-my-walk/">Walk My Walk</a>,” by the AI band Breaking Rust, topped Billboard’s Country Digital Song Sales chart. One survey found that 60 million people were <a href="https://edm.com/industry/60-million-people-used-ai-create-music-2024-ims-business-report/">using AI tools to make music</a>, while the streaming platform <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/a-third-of-daily-music-uploads-are-ai-generated-and-97-of-people-cant-tell-the-difference-says-report-13469818">Deezer reported</a> that a third of the tracks uploaded each day were AI generated.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The remaining barrier to AI music colonizing your ears isn’t capability so much as distribution: You don’t hit No. 1 because you made a great song — you hit No. 1 because the machinery of attention (TikTok, streaming playlists, fandoms, and labels) decides to make your song unavoidable. And I could see the sheer novelty factor pushing at least one AI generated song to the top of the pops.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So what counts as “primarily AI-generated” here? For scoring purposes, I’d define it narrowly: The core musical content (melody/arrangement <em>and</em> a substantial share of the vocals or instrumentation) must be generated by an AI system, and that fact has to be publicly acknowledged by the creators or credibly reported: “AI was used in mastering” or “a producer used AI for a synth patch” — aka AI as a means to supplement human-made work doesn’t count. If it’s essentially an AI-made track with human polishing, it qualifies.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Why 60 percent? Because the incentives of novelty, speed and cost all line up. The big uncertainty is backlash: legal, cultural, or platform-level. But history suggests that if something can go viral, it eventually will. —<em>BW</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Elon Musk will exit the Giving Pledge (55 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Musk is on track to become <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/musk-could-become-worlds-first-trillionaire-as-tesla-shareholders-approve-giant-pay-package">history’s first trillionaire</a>. His fortune is already so gargantuan that if he wanted to, he could <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/11/1166397">end world hunger</a> and subsidize a free <a href="https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2022/6/2/total-cost-of-universal-pre-k">national preschool program</a> and still have hundreds of billions of dollars to spare.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But don’t bet on it, because the world’s richest man may soon become the first person ever to go take-backsies on the <a href="https://www.givingpledge.org/">Giving Pledge</a>, a promise by the ultra-wealthy to donate half of their wealth in their lifetime or upon their death.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">To be fair, plenty of other signatories have quietly died <a href="https://ips-dc.org/report-giving-pledge-at-15/">without fulfilling their pledge</a>. But <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsZKH8luHEI">Musk has also drifted far away politically</a> from who he was when he signed in 2012, and his qualms about philanthropy — including that of his fellow pledgers — are no secret. He thinks it is “<a href="https://fortune.com/2025/12/01/elon-musk-worlds-richest-man-says-philanthropy-is-very-hard/">extremely difficult</a>” to give money well. MacKenzie Scott is “<a href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1871163247593996349?s=20">concerning</a>.” Nonprofits are “<a href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1919652666688602535?s=20">money laundering</a>” schemes. Philanthropy is “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/11/tech/elon-musk-bill-gates-isaacson-book">bullshit</a>.” And the pledge’s founder Bill Gates, Musk told his biographer Walter Isaacson, is “categorically insane (and an asshole to the core).”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Oh, and his good friend <a href="https://fortune.com/2025/10/13/billionaire-peter-thiel-warned-elon-musk-to-ditch-donating-to-the-giving-pledge-bill-gates-donation-left-wing-nonprofits/">Peter Thiel has been openly encouraging Musk</a> — whose charitable foundation has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/us/politics/elon-musk-foundation.html">regularly failed</a> to meet the minimum legal giving requirements anyway — to unsign. Altogether, it’s become more likely than not that Musk will publicly bow out of the Giving Pledge before December 31, 2026. It could come in the form of a quiet delisting on <a href="http://givingpledge.org">GivingPledge.org</a>, but chances are we’ll find out on X before anywhere else. —<em>SH</em>&nbsp;</p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">There will be a satellite collision in low Earth orbit (75 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Space is getting awfully crowded.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">About 15,000 satellites currently <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/more-than-500000-satellites-are-set-to-orbit-earth-by-2040-they-may-end-up-photobombing-the-images-captured-by-space-telescopes-180987796/">orbit</a> Earth. That number has <a href="https://www.livescience.com/how-many-satellites-orbit-earth">risen exponentially</a> in recent years due to megaconstellations, large satellite networks <a href="https://www.livescience.com/how-many-satellites-orbit-earth">launched</a> by private companies like SpaceX and Amazon to provide broadband internet access around the world. Most of these satellites are in <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-next-frontier-in-space-is-closer-than-you-think-welcome-to-the-world-of-very-low-earth-orbit-satellites-258252">low earth orbit</a> (LEO), or 1,200 miles or less above the planet’s surface. As of late October, there were at least 12,000 active satellites in LEO — and just over <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/space/elon-musk-starlink-satellites-spacex-b2848690.html">66 percent</a> are a part of SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, which <a href="https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellites.html#section-starlink-collision-risk">aims</a> to eventually have up to 42,000 satellites.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">We’ve <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/more-than-500000-satellites-are-set-to-orbit-earth-by-2040-they-may-end-up-photobombing-the-images-captured-by-space-telescopes-180987796/">launched more satellites to LEO</a> in the last four years than we have in the previous 70 years combined. By 2040, we should expect to see more than 560,000 <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/more-than-500000-satellites-are-set-to-orbit-earth-by-2040-they-may-end-up-photobombing-the-images-captured-by-space-telescopes-180987796/">satellites in orbit</a> based on planned launches. It’s hard to predict exactly how many satellites we’ll have by the end of 2026, but we know that Starlink and other megaconstellations will continue to grow.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The more satellites we have, the greater the chance that they will collide into one another or “<a href="https://www.vox.com/science/2024/2/29/24086652/space-trash-lasers-explained">space junk</a>”&nbsp;— debris from human-made objects like defunct satellites, bits of spacecrafts, and old rocket parts. Various countries have <a href="https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/eu-space/space-traffic-management_en">space traffic management</a> systems to protect against this, but they certainly aren&#8217;t fail-safe, especially given the rate at which new satellites are being launched into orbit and the increasing risk of collisions that comes with that.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On December 9, a <a href="https://www.theverge.com/news/844502/starlink-and-chinese-satellites-nearly-collided-last-week">Starlink satellite narrowly avoided colliding</a> with a Chinese satellite. Space X claimed that the Chinese operator didn’t share its location data. Starlink satellites can automatically change course to avoid objects, but they have to know they’re there for this to work. In the first half of 2025, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/starlink-manoeuvre-update-july-2025-hugh-lewis-utkhe/?">Starlink performed</a> more than 144,000 avoidance maneuvers. ​​So yes, collisions are inevitable — they’re just a question of when. I’d say 2026. —<em>Shayna Korol</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Health</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The US will approve at least one fully synthetic, small-molecule oral GLP-1 receptor agonist for obesity and/or Type 2 diabetes treatment (70 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/467025/ozempic-glp-1-drugs-obesity-weight-loss">GLP-1 drugs</a> like Ozempic and Wegovy are all the rage, but high demand has meant serious shortages. That’s partly because these drugs are complex peptides grown from living cells, a process that’s hard to scale. But that won’t be the case for long.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Eli Lilly, an American pharmaceutical company, has <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2025/09/17/eli-lilly-orforglipron-rybelsus-results/#:~:text=An%20investigational%20GLP%2D1%20pill,5.3%25%20weight%20loss%2C%20respectively.">developed an oral GLP-1 pill</a> that works like the injections but is structurally very different, more similar to an aspirin. A pill like that would be much cheaper, won’t require cold storage, and can be pressed into pills by the billions. In <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2511774">pivotal trials</a>, the drug showed weight loss rivaling the injections.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Lilly is submitting for FDA approval by year’s end, and the drug has been selected for the <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-awards-second-batch-national-priority-vouchers">FDA’s new priority voucher program</a>, which can cut review times from 10 months to as little as two. The government has already struck a deal with Lilly <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-major-developments-in-bringing-most-favored-nation-pricing-to-american-patients/">capping Medicare patients’ costs</a> at $50 a month if approved. And CEO Dave Ricks <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/07/eli-lilly-obesity-pill-weight-los-trial.html">told CNBC</a> he expects a global launch “this time next year.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Already in late December, the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-approves-wegovy-weight-loss-pill-novo-nordisk-rcna240800">FDA approved a pill version</a> of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. But that’s still a semaglutide, or peptide — not what I’m covering with this prediction. But if Lily’s approval goes through, we’ll be in a true era of GLP-1 abundance. —<em>Pratik Pawar</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is still serving as health secretary by the end of the year (60 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">RFK Jr. has never been a natural fit for the Trump administration. A <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/390309/maha-rfk-make-america-healthy-again-slippery">longtime Democrat</a> with a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/27/climate/rfk-jr-trump-climate-change.html">history of environmental advocacy</a>, he was initially useful to Trump largely because he brought in voters supportive of his Make America Healthy Again movement. But his anti-vaccine advocacy has gotten him into trouble with <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2025/09/04/nx-s1-5528966/rfk-kennedy-hearing-covid-vaccines-cdc">Republican senators</a> and occasionally put him out of step with Trump, who <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-praises-amazing-vaccines-amid-080125972.html?">said in September</a> that “you have some vaccines that are very amazing.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Indeed, if I’d been making this prediction in the fall, I might have given Kennedy less than even odds of staying in his position through 2026. However, he has scored wins lately, like rolling back the federal recommendation that <a href="https://www.vox.com/health/471362/rfk-jr-vaccine-committee-hepatitis-b-shot">infants receive the hepatitis B vaccine</a> at birth (to be clear, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/shots-health-news/2025/12/04/nx-s1-5629168/hepatitis-b-vaccine-kids-health">experts say</a> getting rid of the recommendation is dangerous and could lead to unnecessary deaths). He has also managed to avoid real political fallout around the release of <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/books/under-review/olivia-nuzzi-american-canto-review">Olivia Nuzzi’s memoir</a> about their alleged affair. Vaccine skeptics are reportedly <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/12/03/rfk-new-vaccine-policy-changes-maha">excited about their recent victories</a> and looking forward to more.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Neither vaccine opposition nor MAHA more generally are truly core to Trump’s governing project, to the extent that he has one, and it’s possible to imagine a post-midterm shakeup of the US Department of Health and Human Services. For now, however, the odds favor Kennedy keeping his job. —<em>AN</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The World Health Organization will officially withdraw the United States’s measles elimination status (75 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The United States earned measles elimination status from the WHO in <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/history.html#:~:text=Historic%20achievement,control%20in%20the%20Americas%20region.">2000</a>, after decades of a successful vaccination campaign. More than 90 percent of <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5106a2.htm">children received the measles vaccine</a> — and Americans widely agreed on its value. In the following years, with rare exceptions, the only cases in the US were brought here from other parts of the world where measles was still more widespread.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Not anymore.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/kindergarten-routine-vaccination-rates-continue-to-decline/">Measles vaccination rates have been sliding</a> for years, and 2025 brought the <a href="https://www.vox.com/health/418961/measles-outbreak-cases-vaccine-trump-rfk">biggest single outbreak</a> in more than three decades, seeded in West Texas among a religious community that is skeptical of vaccinations. Even as that outbreak petered out over the summer, after more than 700 cases and three deaths, local <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/measles/south-carolina-reports-27-more-measles-cases-spartanburg-county-utah-count-reaches-115">outbreaks have persisted</a> in Utah and South Carolina.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The WHO’s criteria for revoking measles elimination status is 12 months of continuous transmission. Considering the same strain of the measles virus that was present in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/health/measles-us-elimination-status-outbreaks.html">Texas in January was still circulating</a> as of November, it doesn’t look good.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It seems to me that only a massive effort from the federal government could stamp out the disease in time —&nbsp;but that appears far less likely than the Kennedy-led health department <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2025/12/05/cdc-acip-panel-entire-childhood-vaccine-schedule-under-scrutiny/">limiting access to the measles vaccine next year</a>. Instead, it looks like a pretty safe bet that one of the most contagious viruses known to humanity will continue spreading long enough to undo one of the US’s signature public health wins. —<em>Dylan Scott</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Culture</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Beyoncé will release a rock album (55 percent)&nbsp;</h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2197449850.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Beyonce accepting her Grammy award" title="Beyonce accepting her Grammy award" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;Will Beyoncé release a rock album in 2026?&lt;/p&gt; | Emma McIntyre/Getty Images for the Recording Academy" data-portal-copyright="Emma McIntyre/Getty Images for the Recording Academy" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Not many of my colleagues know this about me, but I’m a huge Beyoncé fan — and how could one not be? She has a voice like honeyed velvet, she can belt like no one else alive, and she can tear through choreo in six-inch heels like she’s just getting warmed up. Her creative instincts have made her one of America’s most consistently admired stars for over two decades, and she’s nothing if not incredibly versatile.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s already widely speculated that the third album in <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/beyonce-rock-era-hints-1235400378/">Beyoncé’s Renaissance trilogy</a> (the first two being 2022’s <em>Renaissance</em> and 2024’s <em>Cowboy Carter</em>) will be rock ’n’ roll-adjacent, with many reports citing the rock songs she’s already released on <em>Lemonade</em> and her most recent album, plus the numerous rock-coded Easter eggs she’s been dropping over the last year. But she’s also been manifesting a bigger rock project ever since her <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL96nlgprU4">jaw-dropping backbend set to electric guitar</a> at a 2009 performance of “Freakum Dress,” and probably <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-ioGgZhgNI&amp;list=RDA-ioGgZhgNI">for even longer</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Her Renaissance trilogy, so far, has explored the Black musical roots of modern pop music, with each release encompassing not a fixed genre but a sonic world with porous borders. So while rock is a narratively satisfying guess for Beyoncé’s next act, there’s also a great deal of uncertainty — she’s rarely straightforward or predictable.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Nevertheless, I’ll place my bets that she’ll have an album out this year with rock or a rock subfield as its primary genre, as defined by at least one major music chart or streaming platform (Billboard, Apple Music, or AllMusic), <em>or</em> as defined by album reviews in a majority of the following outlets: Pitchfork, Rolling Stone, the New York Times, The Guardian, and Vulture. A tad overconfident? Perhaps. But we could all use a hard cultural pivot from the last few years of country music and aesthetics, and I can’t wait to see what Beyoncé will do as rock frontwoman. —<em>MB&nbsp;</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jacob Elordi will be nominated for an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for his portrayal of the creature in <em>Frankenstein </em>(70 percent)</h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Oh, Mr. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bfS6seiLhk"><em>Kissing Booth</em></a>. I didn’t think you had it in you, but your sorrowful, baby doe eyes as the creature has endeared me!</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I went to see <em>Frankenstein</em> in IMAX with one of my friends, and I knew that I was going to walk into a monster-sympathetic adaptation. (It’s Guillermo del Toro we’re talking about, he of <em>Pan’s Labyrinth </em>and <em>The Shape of Water</em>.) I’m a big fan of the book, and was eager to see how Elordi would interpret the creature’s curiosity, rage, and desire for love. Elordi’s creature was more than I could have ever hoped for. Elegant, childlike, and grotesque, all wrapped into one lanky 6-foot-6-inch body — a beautiful foil to Oscar Isaac’s impetuous Victor. I entirely forgot this is Nate from <em>Euphoria</em>! And apparently <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Db1VwGbO1bc">so did everyone at Cannes</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">He will be nominated for Best Supporting Actor, but the odds he wins are lower, depending on who from <em>One Battle After Another</em> is nominated, either Benicio del Toro or Sean Penn. If it’s both, Elordi is cooked.&nbsp;—<em>Izzie Ramirez</em></p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Matthews</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Marina Bolotnikova</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Scott</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Kenny Torrella</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The 19 predictions that came true in 2025 — and the 4 that didn’t]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/473164/israel-iran-nuclear-bitcoin-trump-musk-congress-forecasts-2025" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=473164</id>
			<updated>2025-12-30T12:26:36-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-12-31T06:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Animal Welfare" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Artificial Intelligence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Culture" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Elon Musk" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Influence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Innovation" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Science" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[It’s that time of year again. Every January 1, the Future Perfect team makes forecasts for the events we think will (or won’t) happen over the next 365 days. And every December 31, we go back over those predictions and tally up how we did.&#160; All of our predictions were made positively — as in, [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
							<content type="html">
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<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/CeliaJacobs_Vox_2025PredictionsRevisited.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
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</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s that time of year again.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Every January 1, the Future Perfect team <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/392241/2025-new-year-predictions-trump-musk-artificial-intelligence">makes forecasts</a> for the events we think will (or won’t) happen over the next 365 days. And every December 31, we go back over those predictions and <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/391440/2024-predictions-revisited-trump-politics-tech">tally up how we did</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">All of our predictions were made positively — as in, something <em>will </em>happen — and came with probabilities attached, which are meant to indicate our relative confidence in the forecast. To simplify scoring, predictions that came with a higher than 50 percent probability that proved out, or with a probability below 50 percent that did not prove out, were marked as “correct call.” Those that came with a higher than 50 percent probability that did not prove out, or with a lower than 50 percent probability that did prove out, were marked “incorrect call.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If for some reason the forecast could not be resolved — such as, random example here, a new US government <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3XS0FR:0-schedule-for-us-economic-data-delayed-by-government-shutdown/">chose to delay putting out data or a report that would have clarified the question</a> — we marked it as undecided.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The scorecard? Nineteen correct, four incorrect, and two undecided works out to a winning percentage of .800, if we count ties as half a win. (That would put us a tad over the 1906 Chicago Cubs, who <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/most-mlb-wins-in-a-season-c289159676">recorded</a> the best single-season winning percentage in major league baseball history. Hopefully this doesn’t mean we’ll be cursed for a century.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As always, the point is less to keep score than to get better at forecasting by identifying where we’ve succeeded, where we’ve failed — and maybe where we need to take some more chances. Fortunately, we’ll have another shot tomorrow, when we publish our 2026 forecasts. —<em>Bryan Walsh</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The United States</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Congress passes a major tariff bill (20 percent) — CORRECT CALL&nbsp;</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">2025 certainly did not lack for tariff news, but almost all of it came from the Trump administration, which used executive powers to <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/407111/trump-tariff-formula-calculation-russia-economy-dow-sp">impose sweeping new duties on most countries on Earth</a>, and from the <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/467485/supreme-court-tariff-argument-trump-learning-resources-vos-selections">Supreme Court</a> as it weighed whether any of that was legal.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There was some speculation at the start of 2025 that the need for new revenue in Republicans’ big tax bill would lead it to include some Trump-y tariffs. That didn’t happen, mostly because it didn’t need to happen: President Donald Trump could just impose the tariffs unilaterally, or try to at least. As I wrote in my initial prediction, “the odds that Trump does new tariffs using presidential authority are nearly 100 percent.” If anything, “nearly” 100 percent was an underestimate. —<em>Dylan Matthews&nbsp;</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trump dissolves the Department of Education (5 percent) —</strong><strong> CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Let’s check the fine print: This prediction would’ve resolved true if Congress passed a law formally abolishing the Department of Education. That did not happen in 2025, so the prediction stands.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What Trump <em>did</em> do is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-dismantling-education-department-8b5d0961700f0fe69d18ea80b437c8b8">issue an executive order</a> instructing the Secretary of Education to, “to the maximum extent appropriate and permitted by law, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/improving-education-outcomes-by-empowering-parents-states-and-communities/">take all necessary steps to facilitate the closure of the Department of Education</a>.” What has followed are sweeping staff cuts that it&#8217;s fair to call a gutting of the department, with various court challenges that in July culminated in a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/07/14/nx-s1-5443564/trump-supreme-court-education-department">Supreme Court ruling in favor</a> of the administration, at least for the time being. One major pending fight is over <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/us/politics/school-coalition-lawsuit-education-department.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4E8.Bw5Q.o0PKVJZwbheS&amp;smid=url-share">the legality of the department moving its functions to other parts of the federal government</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But again, read the fine print. The administration&#8217;s solicitor general, in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24A1203/362486/20250606104613590_McMahon%20Stay%20Application.pdf">his Supreme Court filing in June</a>, stated, “The government has been crystal clear in acknowledging that only Congress can eliminate the Department of Education.” What the administration did were simply layoffs, not the closure of a legally created government agency. While the Trump team is clearly trying to have it both ways here, I’m inclined to trust their lawyer —&nbsp;they did not dissolve the department. —<em>DM</em></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2194444069.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="President Donald Trump sits at the Oval Office desk, pen in hand, smiling and signing papers in black folders." title="President Donald Trump sits at the Oval Office desk, pen in hand, smiling and signing papers in black folders." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;President Donald Trump signs executive orders in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on January 20, 2025.&lt;/p&gt; | Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images" />
<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Affordable Care Act is repealed (30 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This is another one where the fine print matters. In my initial prediction, I wrote that a bill “repealing the ACA” has to do at least three of the following five things:</p>

<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Eliminate or reduce the ACA’s Medicaid eligibility or federal funding</li>



<li>Eliminate or reduce ACA health insurance tax credit eligibility or amount</li>



<li>Eliminate or curtail the mandate for certain employers to provide health coverage for employees. Reducing the penalties will also be considered to be relaxing the mandate.</li>



<li>Make it so that ACA subsidies are no longer limited to plans that satisfy the requirements specified in the ACA, including allowing ACA subsidies to be contributed to health savings accounts or similar accounts</li>



<li>Eliminate or curtail medical underwriting restrictions, like the ban on considering preexisting conditions</li>
</ul>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The One Big Beautiful Bill Act certainly satisfies the first two of these requirements. Per the <a href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/whats-one-big-beautiful-bill-act">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget&#8217;s breakdown</a>, the bill includes $1.1 trillion in cuts to health care programs over a decade. The vast majority of those cuts go to Medicaid, by imposing work requirements, limiting “provider taxes,” and other changes. But about $226 billion in cuts go to the Affordable Care Act’s exchange-based coverage, mostly by making certain immigrants ineligible.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But squeezing Medicaid and the exchanges is, at most, cutting the Affordable Care Act, not repealing it. Trump and Congress did not change the employer mandate for health insurance, or allow ACA funds to go into health savings accounts, or, crucially, eliminate protections for people with preexisting conditions or limits on hiking premiums based on age. In my book, that means the ACA has yet to be repealed. <em>—DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Jerome Powell will no longer be Fed chair (10 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump would love nothing more than to fire Jerome Powell, who was first appointed chair of the Federal Reserve by some fiendish anti-MAGA president named Donald Trump way back in 2017. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/06/24/nx-s1-5442665/federal-reserve-powell-economy-interest-rates-tariffs">Powell has been open</a> about the way Trump’s tariffs, by hiking prices, are slowing the Fed’s process of lowering interest rates, and the president does not like that one bit.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In April, Trump said <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination">Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough!”</a> In July, he showed off a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/16/us/politics/trump-powell-firing-letter.html">letter he had written, but not filed, firing Powell</a>. In November, he told reporters he wanted to fire Powell, but people like Treasury Secretary Steve Bessent are “holding me back.” And in August, Trump attempted to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg6pzz5700o">move the Supreme Court has blocked</a> but which was, among other things, a clear threat to Powell that he could be next.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Yet here Powell is, still chair of the Fed. Actually removing him, or trying, proved too rich for Trump’s blood. Powell’s term as chair ends in May 2026, meaning Trump will pick his successor, but it appears he’ll be able to stay in charge until then. He can also keep his post as a regular governor on the board until January 2028, if he wants it. —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trump will have a positive favorability rating (25 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Let’s go to <a href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin">the graph</a>, folks:</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/do-americans-b-style-color-16877a-approve-b-or-b-style-color-d95f02-disapprove-b-of-donald-trump-.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A graph showing polling averages for Donald Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings over 2025, with the disapproval steadily rising and the approval steadily falling." title="A graph showing polling averages for Donald Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings over 2025, with the disapproval steadily rising and the approval steadily falling." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin&quot;&gt;Silver Bulletin&lt;/a&gt;" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Everyone’s polling average is a little different, but basically every one looks like this from Nate Silver: Trump began his presidency slightly above water, but now Americans disapprove of him by a healthy margin (13 points here). <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker">The Economist’s average</a> shows him as less popular than either President Joe Biden or Trump himself in term one were at this point in their presidencies.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Being below water at this point has become pretty normal for presidents <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx">in the 21st century</a>, so there wasn’t much courage in me predicting Trump would be more disliked than liked. But it’s interesting to me that the speed of the decline has picked up in recent months. I would’ve guessed that Trump’s most-disliked period would’ve been the height of DOGE, but it’s been the period when his <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/469394/jeffrey-epstein-files-scandal-explained-trump-giuffre">ties to Jeffrey Epstein were most under question</a>. —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Musk and Trump are still friends at the end of the year (40 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Only two men can tell us if Elon Musk and Trump are truly, as of December 2025, “friends.” But the formal definition I used here is that they stop being friends “if one or the other publicly and unambiguously disparages his counterpart at least three times” over the year. And buddy…</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-29-at-11.40.23%E2%80%AFAM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-29-at-11.40.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-29-at-11.41.33%E2%80%AFAM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-29-at-11.42.01%E2%80%AFAM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Those Musk tweets are now deleted, and there appears to have been <a href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1991241884056895703">some degree of rapprochement</a> in the ensuing months. But as predicted, there was a massive blow-up in their relationship, centered around the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and, implicitly, the <a href="https://time.com/7336327/doge-disbanded-elon-musk/">failure of Musk’s DOGE to do anything to actually reduce federal spending</a>. While it does seem as if they’ve made an attempt to patch things up, what’s clear is that their bond is much weaker than it was on January 1. Sad! —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s preliminary estimates of US car crash deaths for 2024 will be lower than 40,000 (70 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">America stands out among wealthy nations for being the land of <a href="https://www.vox.com/22675358/us-car-deaths-year-traffic-covid-pandemic">death by cars</a>. But there is, finally, some good news here: After a terrifying period of elevated car fatalities during Covid, the US has seen <a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813756">13 consecutive quarterly declines</a> in these deaths. <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-estimates-39345-traffic-fatalities-2024">As of 2024</a>, we’re back below 40,000 Americans killed by cars annually, according to federal statistics — an achievement that (sadly) calls for celebration. But we still have a ways to go before we’re back down to the pre-pandemic baseline. —<em>Marina Bolotnikova</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The world</strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2242177577.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Benjamin Netanyahu standing in front of an Israeli flag." title="Benjamin Netanyahu standing in front of an Israeli flag." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with US Vice President J.D. Vance on October 22, 2025 in Jerusalem, Israel. &lt;/p&gt; | Nathan Howard/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Nathan Howard/Getty Images" />
<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Benjamin Netanyahu is still Israel’s PM at the end of November 2025 (75 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Netanyahu seemed like a marked man going into 2025. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The war in Gaza had already stretched past a year, and dozens of hostages remained in the hands of Hamas, even as Israel was <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/461977/un-commission-report-israel-genocide-gaza">coming under fire</a> for charges of genocide in its conduct of the war. Netanyahu himself was facing <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/3/26/18282151/netanyahu-trump-white-house-corruption-joke">long-running corruption allegations</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2023/7/23/23804795/israel-protests-judicial-reforms-netanyahu-likud-idf">public anger over both judicial reforms</a> and the war, while the International Criminal Court had <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/11/1157286">issued arrest warrants</a> for him and for his former defense minister Yoav Gallant (as well as Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Well, there’s a reason that Netanyahu is the <a href="https://theweek.com/politics/how-benjamin-netanyahu-shaped-israel-in-his-own-image">longest-serving leader in Israeli history</a>: The man has an undeniable talent for political self-preservation. With Trump returning to the White House, Netanyahu had an ally who <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/398894/trump-gaza-clean-out-riviera-egypt-jordan-palestinians-netanyahu">gave him an even freer hand in Gaza</a>, where Israel adopted tactics that maximized damage (and civilian suffering) in Gaza while <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2025/01/israel-takes-stock-of-military-casualties-over-a-year-of-war.php">reducing the record number of casualties it had suffered in 2024</a>. In June, he launched a <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/416833/israel-iran-war-missiles-tel-aviv-strike-nuclear">major attack against Iran</a> that represented a major tactical victory, one that ultimately included enlisting the US in the attack. By October, whether he fully wanted it or not, Netanyahu <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/464774/gaza-ceasefire-october-netanyahu-peace-last">had a ceasefire in Gaza</a> that included the return of the remaining 20 living hostages. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As 2026 begins, Netanyahu is <a href="https://en.idi.org.il/media/29601/israeli-voice-index-november-2025-eng-data.pdf">far from popular</a> and Israel has increasingly become an international pariah, but he has yet to be dislodged from his position at the top of his deeply divided country. Perhaps that will change with the next Israeli elections, which must take place no later than October 27, but I, for one, have learned not to bet against this man.&nbsp;—<em>BW</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Argentina’s yearly inflation is below 30 percent (20 percent)</strong><strong> — UNDECIDED</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This has been a very challenging year for Argentina’s economy, after a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentinas-2024-economy-shrinks-17-despite-late-year-rebound-2025-03-19/">surprisingly strong 2024</a>. Inflation is far below where it was when the populist Kirchners were in charge, but swaggering libertarian president Javier Milei’s reforms have also led to high unemployment and voter discontent. That led to a <a href="https://apnews.com/article/argentina-election-javier-milei-cristina-fernandez-peronism-fecba6d106eb2c0f2440e9fca298e470">defeat in Buenos Aires elections in September</a>, which <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/argentine-markets-plunge-after-mileis-party-loses-peronists-buenos-aires-vote-2025-09-08/">led currency, stock, and bond markets to fret</a> over the country’s prospects. This culminated in the US government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentinas-central-bank-says-it-signed-20-billion-currency-swap-deal-with-us-2025-10-20/">offering to buy up to $20 billion in Argentinian pesos</a> so Milei’s government had an adequate supply of dollars and could maintain a viable exchange rate.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Having the world hegemon bail you out is, it turns out, good politics: Less than two months after the bad Buenos Aires results, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/10/27/nx-s1-5585097/argentina-president-wins-milei-midterm-elections">Milei won national midterms in a landslide</a>, giving him much firmer support in Argentina’s National Congress for his reforms.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That’s all background to the question here: inflation. I predicted that inflation would continue to fall but not below 30 percent; I relied in part on an IMF forecast of 45 percent inflation. The most recent data as I write this comes from October, where prices were <a href="https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/argentina/news/inflation/argentina-consumer-prices-12-11-2025-inflation-decelerates-in-october-from-september/">31.3 percent higher</a> than October 2024. That implies an annual inflation rate just above our 30 percent cutoff. We&#8217;ll have to see what the January numbers say, but there&#8217;s a very good chance I was wrong here and underestimated Milei and the Argentinian economy. Regardless of which side of 30 percent we land on, I was much too confident. —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>There will be a ceasefire in Ukraine (75 percent)</strong><strong> — INCORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">When I made this call, I thought the logic was straightforward. The war was grinding into its third year, both sides had taken appalling losses, and Trump was about to take office with little interest in writing Ukraine a blank check. It seemed reasonable that Moscow and Kyiv would fight hard for marginal gains in early 2025, then accept a ceasefire that froze the lines. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That is not the world we’re in. As 2025 ends, the conflict in Ukraine <a href="https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12534/IN12534.1.pdf">remains the largest war</a> in Europe since World War II, with well over a million people killed or wounded and Russia still occupying <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-is-preparing-contacts-with-united-states-ukraine-kremlin-says-2025-12-18/">roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory</a>. There have been <a href="https://www.ungeneva.org/en/news-media/news/2025/04/105793/ukraine-ceasefire-critical-first-step-road-durable-peace">brief truces</a> — measured in dozens of hours or a few days at most — but nothing that qualifies as the “durable pause in the fighting” I had in mind.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Instead, we have diplomacy without peace. The Trump administration <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/469993/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-zelenskyy">is pushing a plan</a> that would freeze the front lines and lift some sanctions; Russian and American officials are shuttling between European capitals and Miami hotel conference rooms; and Ukraine, Europe, and the US have reportedly agreed on most of a peace framework. The sticking point is exactly what you’d expect: territory and legitimacy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-12-16/zelensky-says-proposals-to-end-war-in-ukraine-could-be-presented-to-russia-within-days">still refuses</a> to recognize Russia’s land grab in the east and south, while Putin insists that any ceasefire ratify his conquests.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In retrospect, I overweighted “war-weariness” and underweighted how much the key actors care about not losing. I implicitly assumed a Korean War-style ending: a bloody stalemate capped by an ugly armistice. What we actually got was the stalemate without the armistice, and one that is set to continue into the new year. —<em>BW</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Iran gets nuclear weapons (30 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This was the prediction where I tried to be precise about definitions. I <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/392241/2025-new-year-predictions-trump-musk-artificial-intelligence">wrote</a> that “getting nuclear weapons” didn’t mean a test or a declared arsenal, but Iran producing enough fissile material to fuel at least one bomb. Building and deploying an actual warhead, I argued, could take months or years beyond that. So instead, I staked this prediction on a key nuclear benchmark: Iran enriching uranium to weapons-grade (~90% U-235) in sufficient quantity for at least one device.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Not long after I made the prediction, Iran was <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-weapons-grade-uranium-trump-0b11a99a7364f9a43e1c83b220114d45">already enriching</a> uranium to 60 percent at its Natanz and Fordow facilities, and outside experts thought its “breakout time” — how long it would take to produce weapons-grade uranium for one device — was <a href="https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/us-intelligence-says-iran-could-produce-enough-uranium-for-one-nuclear-bomb-in-under-a-week">down to perhaps a week</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2025, the enrichment problem got dramatically worse. A February International Atomic Energy&nbsp;Agency report <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-weapons-grade-uranium-trump-0b11a99a7364f9a43e1c83b220114d45">found</a> that Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent-enriched uranium had jumped to about 275 kilograms, up roughly 50 percent from late 2024. By May, the agency was <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5e4dbcdc-760a-4c99-baca-eb321e410ff3">estimating</a> some 408.6 kilograms of 60-percent material — and a June update put the figure at around 440.9 kilograms, which its own yardstick says is enough, if further enriched, for <a href="https://www.bworldonline.com/world/2025/06/01/676303/damning-iaea-report-spells-out-past-secret-nuclear-activities-in-iran/">roughly nine or 10 simple fission weapons</a>. Then came a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/12/17/iran-israel-war-nuclear-scientists-frontline-pbs/">12-day US-Israeli air and covert campaign</a> that killed senior Iranian nuclear scientists and wrecked parts of the program, but even Israeli and US officials <a href="https://www.factcheck.org/2025/06/questions-linger-about-irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-after-u-s-airstrikes/">concede</a> it did not eliminate Iran’s ability to rebuild.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While all highly enriched uranium — anything above about 20 percent enriched — <a href="https://nuclear-news.net/2025/06/23/1-a-clearing-up-the-confusion-about-iran-and-uranium-enrichment/">is in principle</a> weapon-usable, watchdogs <a href="https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential">note</a> that Iran has not been publicly observed enriching to the classic weapons-grade threshold of 90 percent, nor is there evidence of an actual tested device.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So did Iran “get nuclear weapons” in 2025? The answer remains no, although it comes with the additional confounding factor that, with international inspections suspended, the true state of Iran’s nuclear program may be murkier than ever. Which is why you can expect this question to continue to haunt international politics in 2026 and beyond. —<em>BW</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Science and technology</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The World Health Organization (WHO) will declare H5N1 a pandemic in 2025 (25 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I’ve been covering the H5N1 bird flu virus since the spring of 2003 in Hong Kong, when there was some suspicion <a href="https://time.com/archive/6668574/sars-unmasking-a-crisis/">that the unknown illness</a> spreading in southern China at the time might be bird flu finally transmitting human to human. It wasn’t — it was something entirely new called SARS-CoV-1, though back in those pre-Covid days we didn’t have the “1.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Every January since, I’ve been wondering if this is the year we finally get our dreaded bird flu pandemic. And every year, including 2025, it hasn’t been.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Instead, we got a year that underlined the basic tension of H5N1: It keeps looking terrifying on paper, while acting more like a slow-burn animal disaster than a human pandemic. H5 bird flu is now <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html">entrenched</a> in wild birds, poultry, and US dairy cattle. The US <a href="https://www.vox.com/explainers/399776/auto-draft">experienced</a> its first US H5N1 death early in the year and nearly 70 US infections since April 2024, mostly among workers around infected herds and flocks.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On the animal side, the picture is much worse. A major <em>Nature</em> perspective <a href="https://qcb.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2025/02/s41586-024-08054-z.pdf">described</a> a true H5N1 “panzootic” across bird and mammal species, including mink, marine mammals, and cattle, with clear evidence of mammal-to-mammal spread in some settings and worrying adaptive mutations. What we’re seeing adds up to an unprecedented number of mammalian infections, severe neurological disease in animals, and growing uncertainty about how close this virus is to efficient human transmission.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There is some good news on preparedness. Health agencies still <a href="https://www.woah.org/app/uploads/2025/05/hpai-report-70-1.pdf">classify</a> the overall public health risk from current H5 viruses as low, and vaccine work is accelerating. In December, Moderna and CEPI <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-secures-up-543-million-funding-bird-flu-vaccine-global-coalition-2025-12-18/">announced</a> funding for a late-stage trial of an mRNA bird flu vaccine.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So, once again, no H5N1 bird flu pandemic in humans. After 22 years of covering this virus I’m tempted to just say that pandemic will never happen, but I’m not quite that foolhardy. When it comes to H5N1, we’ve been more lucky than we’ve been good. —<em>BW</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>A major lab will formally claim it has achieved AGI (30 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There is a lot of hype and boosterism in the world of AI. The firm <a href="https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/whats-up-with-anthropic-predicting">Anthropic has publicly predicted</a> they’ll get to artificial intelligence systems “matching or exceeding that of Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines” by 2027. Elon Musk, meanwhile, has <a href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1979431839824777673">tweeted</a>, “My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 [his firm xAI’s next model] achieving AGI is now 10 percent and rising.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But Grok 5 isn’t out yet, and it’s 2025, not 2027. I made a very long list of Western companies that could even theoretically be in the running to build AGI (including, like, Netflix, which is not trying to do this at all). Foolishly, I didn’t include Chinese firms, failing to anticipate the “<a href="https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/publication/taking-stock-deepseek-shock">DeepSeek shock</a>” at the start of 2025.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In any case, nobody claimed AGI this past year, whether in the US or China. I’d be surprised if anyone does in 2026, either. Then again, AI as a field is always able to surprise me. —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>EVs will make up more than 10 percent of new car sales in the US by the end of Q3 2025 (65 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2247383474.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A car at an EV charger" title="A car at an EV charger" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="An electric car recharges its battery at a curbside Charge Point electric vehicle charging station on November 16, 2025, in Jersey City, New Jersey. | Gary Hershorn/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Gary Hershorn/Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">So, I was right here, but I may be wrong in spirit. Electric cars <a href="https://www.kbb.com/car-news/americans-bought-record-number-of-evs-in-third-quarter/">made up 10.5 percent of new car sales</a> in the third quarter of 2025 — but that was probably only because people who wanted an EV anyway were rushing to buy one before the federal government’s $7,500 tax credits for new EVs, which were <a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/458567/trump-ford-electric-car-tax-credit-f-f150">killed</a> by Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill expired at the end of September. US electric car sales are expected to dip significantly as a result. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Beyond ending that subsidy, which was critical for EV adoption, the Trump administration is trying to go after every other pillar that makes electric cars viable. They’ve proposed significantly weakening Biden-era fuel economy rules and <a href="https://electrek.co/2025/02/06/trump-just-canceled-the-federal-nevi-ev-charger-program/">hamstrung</a> the buildout of EV charging stations. Oh, and half the country hates Elon Musk now, so Tesla sales, which once made up the <a href="https://electrek.co/2021/02/16/tesla-owns-electric-car-market-us">overwhelming majority</a> of the US electric car market, have taken a big hit. Americans also just seem wary of electric cars because of vague cultural vibes and societal malaise. The US is way behind the rest of the world in EV adoption — a lag that Trump seems determined to turn into a permanent technological deficit. <em>—MB</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Bitcoin’s price will at some point in 2025 breach $200,000 (70 percent) — INCORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Funny enough, as a bit of a bitcoin skeptic, I bought into the bitcoin hype — only to be disappointed. I thought for certain after crypto bros <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/17/politics/crypto-industry-donald-trump-reelection">helped</a> put Trump into office, he’d reward the best-known cryptocurrency around with astronomical growth. When Trump was sworn in, bitcoin was already <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/">hovering</a> near its all-time high value, a little over $100,000. The sky was the limit.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But then, uh, <em>Trump</em> happened. Rather than building on the record 2024 gains that made me so optimistic, bitcoin <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bitcoins-2025-rollercoaster-may-end-low-2025-12-09/">endured</a> a turbulent year. Uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs, the AI boom and its own unpredictable economic impact, and other economic variables (interest rates) sent the bitcoin price plummeting, then soaring, and back again. Bitcoin did <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/bitcoin-hovers-near-all-time-high-2025-10-06/">reach</a> a new record high briefly back in October, at more than $125,000, but it fell far short of my projection — and <a href="https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/BTC-USD?sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjpqrOateORAxWU48kDHRj0BP8Q-fUHegQIDRAW&amp;window=1Y" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/BTC-USD?sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjpqrOateORAxWU48kDHRj0BP8Q-fUHegQIDRAW&amp;window=1Y">as of this writing</a> on December 29, it’s back well below where it was at Trump’s inauguration. Whoops. —<em>Dylan Scott</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Elon Musk is still the richest person in the world (55 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/">Bloomberg Billionaire&#8217;s Index</a> has seen some fascinating shifts over the past year. There are now 18 billionaires worth at least $100 billion each, including three members of the Walton family. Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google each added about $100 billion to their tally as Alphabet stock rallied. But the same guy remained at the top, buoyed by the persistently high price of Tesla stock: Elon Musk. As of December 29, he&#8217;s worth $638 billion, or more than twice Page, who&#8217;s currently in second with $270 billion.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But you know what’s cooler than half a trillion dollars? A trillion dollars, which <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/business/elon-musk-tesla-pay-vote.html">Musk got Tesla stockholders to agree to pay him</a> if the firm hits key targets over the next 10 years. I guess one of these years we’ll have to add a “the world gets a trillionaire” prediction. —<em>DM</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>A new application for psychedelic therapy drugs is submitted to the FDA (20 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After last year’s brouhaha with Lykos Therapeutics — the organization that <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/365820/mdma-therapy-lykos-therapeutics-maps-psychedelics-ecstasy">tried (and failed) getting MDMA-assisted therapy approved</a> by the FDA — we didn’t have the highest confidence here. In order to have an application ready for review, you need Phase 3 trials. And those take years to accomplish — and neither Compass Pathways nor the Usona Institute, the two companies mayhaps the furthest along in psilocybin depression treatment, submitted.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But! Oshan Jarow’s initial prediction also accounted for the possibility of the FDA using emergency use authorization to temporarily reschedule certain psychedelics. That didn’t happen either. Fingers crossed for 2027? <em>—Izzie Ramirez</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The 2025–2030 federal dietary guidelines advise Americans to avoid ultra-processed foods (30 percent) — UNDECIDED</strong><strong>&nbsp;</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If this were a normal year, the new dietary guidelines that will shape the next five years of food policy would have already been released. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had even <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/new-us-dietary-guidelines-come-before-august-kennedy-says-2025-05-14/">promised</a> to release them ahead of schedule, well before August, and with everything we need to know to guide nutritional choices condensed into just four pages!&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Of course, that didn’t happen, and the new guidelines have now been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/04/us/politics/dietary-guidelines-americans.html">delayed</a> until January. It turns out that nutrition science is actually quite complicated and can’t just be reduced to aphorisms like, as Kennedy puts it, “eat whole foods.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">My prediction had totally underestimated how incompetent and unmoored from expert consensus the second Trump administration would turn out to be. Once the guidelines come out, I now <em>do</em> expect that they’ll probably make confusing and misleading claims about <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/391795/ultra-processed-foods-science-vegan-meat-rfk-maha">so-called ultra-processed foods</a>, along with other bad advice, which I thought unlikely a year ago. And, lesson learned, I’m going to avoid making predictions that rely on the timely release of federal government information for the foreseeable future.&nbsp;<em>—MB</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Animals</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Antibiotic sales for use in livestock production will have increased by at least 0.5 percent in 2024 (55 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Sometimes you can be “right,” and yet still miss the mark. I really underestimated how dramatically antibiotic sales for use in livestock production would increase in 2024. I predicted, with a timid 55 percent probability, that sales would increase by at least 0.5 percent. But in 2024, they shot up by an astonishing <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/472014/meat-dairy-antibiotic-resistance-fda">15.8 percent</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That should worry you because antibiotics use in livestock production is a <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance">pressing public health problem</a>. Here’s why, from my prediction last year:</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Most of the antibiotics used in human medicine are actually sold to meat companies, which put them in animals’ feed to make them grow faster and prevent disease outbreaks in factory farms. But some bacteria on farms are becoming resistant to these antibiotics, giving way to new strains of antibiotic-resistant bacteria that make the drugs less effective in treating humans.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For years, US <a href="https://www.tysonfoods.com/sustainability/product-responsibility/animal-health-welfare/antibiotic-stewardship">meat companies</a> and <a href="https://nppc.org/antimicrobials/">trade groups</a> — along with the <a href="https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/antimicrobial-resistance/fda-antimicrobial-stewardship-animals-stakeholder-resources">US Food and Drug Administration</a> — pledged to be better “stewards” of these precious drugs, namely by reducing their use. It appears that it was mostly hot air. There <em>were</em> steep declines of antibiotic use in the mid-2010s, thanks to FDA rules, but sales have since stabilized and are now increasing. The vibes are shifting on antibiotics in meat production, and that’s bad news for the future of these lifesaving medicines. —<em>Kenny Torrella</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Bird flu results in the deaths of at least 30 million farmed birds by the end of 2025 (60 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2209043525.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A grocery store cooler full of eggs, with a paper sign reading “Eggs Limit of 2.”" title="A grocery store cooler full of eggs, with a paper sign reading “Eggs Limit of 2.”" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="With an outbreak of bird flu, millions of chickens were euthanized to prevent the spread of the virus, leading to a decline in the egg supply and driving prices to record highs. | Deb Cohn-Orbach/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Deb Cohn-Orbach/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">This current bird flu outbreak has been dragging on for nearly four years, and 2025 was one of the worst yet, with nearly 54 million birds culled as of December 12.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The virus hit egg farms particularly hard in <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/400361/bird-flu-egg-shortage-nevada-cage-free">late 2024 and early 2025</a>, resulting in egg shortages and <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111">massive price spikes</a>. Some grocery stores even restricted the number of cartons each customer could purchase.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The egg industry, which has been damaged the most by the bird flu, is <a href="https://hickmanseggs.com/avian-PDF/UEP-Board-Approved-HPAI-Vaccination-and-Surveillance-Plan.pdf">ready to start vaccinating</a> its birds. But the US Department of Agriculture won’t let it, for fear it’ll severely disrupt the trade of chicken <em>meat</em> — an entirely different sector of the animal agriculture sector. It’s a long and complicated story, which I went into detail on a couple of months ago; check out the story <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/466446/bird-flu-vaccine-eggs-chicken">here</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I have little hope common sense will prevail in 2026, so we’re likely in for another bad year of dead birds, higher food prices, and unused vaccines.&nbsp;—<em>KT</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>California’s animal agriculture law Proposition 12 will not be overturned by Congress (65 percent) — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I should, if anything, have predicted this with higher probability. The only somewhat surprising part is that Congress still hasn’t passed a new Farm Bill to replace the one that expired more than two years ago, which is really behind schedule even by today’s chronically late legislative standards. (The coalition that made the last century of farm bills possible <a href="https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025/07/republicans-farm-bill-hopes-now-rest-with-democrats-00449579">is breaking down</a>, as Republicans <a href="https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/by-the-numbers-harmful-republican-megabill-takes-food-assistance-away-from">demand steep cuts to SNAP</a> and an end to “climate-smart” provisions in ag funding.) </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In theory, that still gives them the chance to kill Prop 12 in the Farm Bill that eventually passes, but the longer that the animal welfare law remains in place, the less likely the pork industry is to continue campaigning against it, and the less likely it is to be nullified — and thank God for that. <em>—MB</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>At least one additional state bans lab-grown meat in 2025 (80 percent)</strong><strong> — CORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This is another case of being technically right while far underestimating reality. I predicted at least one state would ban the production and sale of lab-grown, or cell-cultivated, meat in 2025, but three to five did, depending on how you look at it: <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/mississippi-bans-lab-grown-meat/">Mississippi</a>, <a href="https://news.mt.gov/Governors-Office/Governor_Gianforte_Bans_Lab-Grown_Meat_in_Montana">Montana</a>, and <a href="https://governor.nebraska.gov/gov-pillen-signs-legislation-banning-fake-meat-nebraska">Nebraska</a> passed indefinite bans, while <a href="https://stateline.org/2025/06/30/texas-becomes-seventh-state-to-ban-lab-grown-meat/">Texas</a> and <a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/03/cultivated-chicken-imitation-label-law/84447727007/">Indiana</a> passed two-year bans.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Prior to 2025, only <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2024/2/14/24069722/political-ban-cell-cultivated-lab-grown-meat-plant-based-labeling-laws">Florida and Alabama</a> had banned it.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The movement is primarily driven by Republican state lawmakers, including some who are ranchers and farmers themselves, which represents a form of “government protectionism” for the meat industry, according to one Nebraska cattle rancher who opposed the bans (so too did <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/proposal-ban-lab-grown-meat-205338825.html?">several state-level Nebraska farm groups</a>, along with the <a href="https://www.rfdtv.com/ncba-doesnt-want-to-ban-lab-grown-meat-just-advocating-for-clear-labeling-and-fair-competition">National Cattlemen’s Beef Association</a>).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the short term, the bans have little impact, as no cell-cultivated meat company has scaled up their production enough to sell large amounts of the product. Several companies now have government approval to do so, but Wildtype — the San Francisco-based startup that makes cell-cultivated salmon — is the only one that’s managed to get into <a href="https://www.wildtypefoods.com/try-wildtype">numerous restaurants</a>; two in California, one in Oregon, and one in Washington state, which are unlikely to pass bans. If you have the chance to try them, I recommend it —&nbsp;I did a few years ago and thought it was <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23507372/lab-grown-seafood-fish-bluenalu-wildtype-cultivated-cultured-meat">delicious</a>. —<em>KT</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Culture and sports</strong></h2>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>A major sports gambling scandal leads at least one All-Star in the four major professional sports to be suspended (30 percent)</strong><strong> — INCORRECT CALL</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Okay, technically, Emmanuel Clase, the Cleveland Guardians star closer and three-time All-Star, is on &#8220;nondisciplinary paid leave” but for the purposes of this prediction, we’re going to call it suspension by another name. Clase and his teammate Luis Ortiz were <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/emmanuel-clase-arrested-pleads-not-guilty/">arrested</a> in November on charges of illegally conspiring in a scheme to rig their pitches in order to pay out prop bets made by their associates. You can now find <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1osv8dy/compilation_of_emmanuel_clase_spiking_1st_pitches/">all kinds of videos</a> detailing how Clase would throw his first pitch in the dirt after entering a game; as it turns out, his co-conspirators were allegedly betting that first pitch would be a ball.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">However, based on the rules of our prediction contest, since I put less than 30 percent probability, this technically comes up “wrong.” But I was onto something. Legal gambling continues to creep into every facet of professional sports, with the happy collaboration of the leagues, and the scandals have followed. Clase wasn’t alone this year: Former NBA All-Star, current Portland head coach, and once-presumed future Hall of Famer Chauncey Billups was <a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/46695228/sources-terry-rozier-arrested-part-gambling-inquiry">implicated</a> in a separate sports betting scandal this year. Unless something changes, I suspect neither of them will be the last. —<em>DS</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Max Verstappen wins the Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship (60 percent) — INCORRECT CALL</strong></h3>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/12/GettyImages-2251248090.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A man holds a trophy and has a medal around his neck, with Redbull costuming for an F1 race" title="A man holds a trophy and has a medal around his neck, with Redbull costuming for an F1 race" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;Max Verstappen on the podium celebrating his win at the 2025 Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in United Arab Emirates on December 7, 2025.&lt;/p&gt; | Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Sigh. Okay, so in any ordinary year, I would have put Verstappen, the four-time champion driver for Red Bull, at an 80 percent likelihood of winning. He’s a menace. Can drive from the back of the grid all the way to first. But things were rocky at Red Bull, from second driver woes to full-on company culture shifts. The 2025 Red Bull car was&nbsp;— and this is as nicely as I’ll put it — underperformed. All the while, McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were gaining points weekend after weekend.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For most of the year, I was thinking about this prediction. Was I too generous? He wasn’t a contender for the first half of the season. But it’s Verstappen we’re talking about — <a href="https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/verstappen-very-proud-despite-remarkable-championship-comeback-falling-two.6aLc8om0STvgLnhgF8wBwP">he made a legendary 104-point comeback</a>, essentially unheard of in F1. Then the last few races were total nail-biters, with the three drivers so close to each other in points. I was even thinking about hiring an Etsy witch so I could say I was right for this silly little article.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Anyway, Verstappen ended up winning the season closer in Abu Dhabi, but Lando Norris took the championship title by 2 measly points. Yes, I’m upset about it. <em>—IR</em></p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Charli XCX wins a Grammy for </strong><strong><em>Brat </em></strong><strong>(90 percent) — CORRECT CALL&nbsp;</strong></h3>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And…water is wet. Last year, I kept my prediction intentionally open, hence the high percentage confidence here. Out of the eight nominations she received, she won three Grammys: Best Dance Pop Recording for “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwZ1L_0QLjw">Von Dutch</a>,” Best Recording Package, and Best Electronic Dance/Electronic Album. While I hoped she would have won for Best Album, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fk-cn1I9VP8&amp;list=PLx9RwGN4X343-YxlAP71jXrT5HnKSIcmW">she’ll always be No. 1 to me</a>. —<em>IR</em></p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Sara Herschander</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Sigal Samuel</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Shayna Korol</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Free cancer treatment for all — and 5 other ideas to transform global health]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469225/free-cancer-treatment-ms-rachel-transform-global-health" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=469225</id>
			<updated>2025-11-21T12:44:43-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-11-19T06:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="The Future Perfect 25" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[In a year marked by devastating cuts to aid and horrible humanitarian crises, global health and development progress is at risk of backsliding. But then, there are those who refuse to cave in. Tackling global health from new perspectives, these leaders have channeled their expertise to create lasting impact. Their work spans high-stakes arenas, from [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
							<content type="html">
											<![CDATA[

						
<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="We’re excited to highlight our changemakers and innovators in this year’s Future Perfect 25." data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Vox_FuturePerfect25_MoversAndShakers_MarHernandez.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	We’re excited to highlight our changemakers and innovators in this year’s Future Perfect 25.	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none"><br>In a year marked by <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/406022/usaid-foreign-aid-trump-rubio-cuts-gavi-vaccines">devastating cuts to aid</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/467671/sudan-civil-war-space-rsf-famine-explained">horrible humanitarian crises</a>, global health and development progress is at risk of backsliding. But then, there are those who refuse to cave in.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>This story is part of the 2025 Future Perfect 25</strong></h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">Every year, the Future Perfect team curates the undersung activists, organizers, and thinkers who are making the world a better place. This year’s honorees are all keeping progress on global health and development alive. Read more about <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/468923/global-health-development-poverty-trump-usaid-future-perfect">the project here</a>, and check out the other categories:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469222/future-perfect-25-global-health-vaccines-ai-breakthroughs" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469219/future-perfect-25-big-thinkers-solutions-foreign-aid-masculinity-development">Innovators</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469219/future-perfect-25-big-thinkers-solutions-foreign-aid-masculinity-development">Thinkers</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469231/future-perfect-25-global-mental-health-solutions-organizers" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469231/future-perfect-25-global-mental-health-solutions-organizers">On the Ground</a></li>
</ul>



<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Have ideas for who should be on next year’s list?</strong> Email us at <a href="mailto:futureperfect@vox.com">futureperfect@vox.com</a>.</p>
</div>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Tackling global health from new perspectives, these leaders have channeled their expertise to create lasting impact. Their work spans high-stakes arenas, from pioneering massive new commitments to women’s health to preventing biodefense failures. Others have steered national health system transformations — including making cancer treatment free for all. Then, there are those who are rebuilding war-torn nations, when attention has been diverted elsewhere.<br><br>They are united by a deep-seated, strategic commitment to addressing child mortality and poverty and by their determination to make progress in the face of a perpetually challenging world. <em>— Izzie Ramirez, deputy editor</em></p>

<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong><br></strong><strong>Ms. Rachel&nbsp;</strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Vox_FuturePerfect25_Ms-Rachel_MarHernandez.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a black tank top with a textured blue background" title="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a black tank top with a textured blue background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Mar Hernández for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">If you’re a parent, teacher, or cool aunt, you’ve probably heard of Ms. Rachel. She’s every toddler’s favorite YouTuber.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Informed by her (two!) master&#8217;s degrees in music and early childhood education, Rachel Accurso started making singalong videos for her son back in 2019. He had a speech delay, and Accurso knew there was a gap in useful but fun content for kids like her son. Her finger was on the pulse. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@msrachel">Her channel, originally named Songs for Littles</a><em>, </em>transformed into a global phenomenon. Some 13 billion views later, the Ms. Rachel cinematic universe now encompasses books, a fast-selling toy line, and <a href="https://www.netflix.com/title/81975233">a top-rated Netflix series</a>.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/PullQuote_MsRachel.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">It could have been easy for Accurso to focus only on making positive videos — the ones that toddlers can’t stop dancing along to. She didn’t. On her other social media platforms, Accurso has a direct line to caregivers and adults&nbsp;— and she uses it to advocate for the most disadvantaged.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Accurso has consistently used her immense platform to champion causes often avoided by public figures, speaking openly about her personal struggle with postpartum depression and brushing off conservative backlash for posting a <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/354047/ms-rachel-backlash-explained-pride-gaza">Pride Month message last year.</a>&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Perhaps none is more moving than her unwavering commitment lately to kids in Gaza, where the malnutrition crisis — caused by <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/461977/un-commission-report-israel-genocide-gaza">Israel’s brutal military campaign</a> and continued <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/421741/gaza-hunger-crisis-aid-israel-starvation">reluctance to allow consistent aid into the enclave </a>— has now reached “catastrophic” levels, <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/10/1166007">according to UNICEF</a>. There, more than 320,000 children are at risk of acute malnutrition. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Please look at her eyes for one minute,” she said in one video earlier this year, pointing to a picture of an incredibly malnourished baby, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0g45z792do">Siwar Ashour</a>, whose haunting stare became emblematic of the crisis in Gaza. She also featured Rahaf, a three-year-old double amputee, and sang with her on one of her videos. Critics accused her of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ms-rachel-bullying-fundraising-children-gaza-rcna152701">not “caring for all kids”</a> after she <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/C67Q6vnuKrS/">raised more than $50,000</a> for Save the Children’s Emergency Fund for kids in Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine, among others. But she refused to relent. </p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Movers_PullQuote-12.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">“I have to just remind myself that kids’ lives are more important than my reputation,” <a href="https://www.glamour.com/story/ms-rachel-women-of-the-year-2025">she told Glamour’s Samantha Barry</a> last month.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">She’s right. We cannot have a better, healthier future without considering the well-being of children. Food, water, shelter, education, and access to medical care are all basic needs that are crucial for human development, especially in those first few years of life. Accurso forces us to extend that urgency to every child.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“As an educator, you care about every child in your class,” <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/ms-rachels-gaza-gave-palestinian-parents-hope-rcna212826">she told Mohammed R. Mhawish</a>, a journalist who escaped Gaza with his son, in June. “I’ve taught children from so many places and so many backgrounds. They all want to play, to learn, to laugh, and to belong. They are all innocent and precious. And geography does not change that.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong><br></strong><strong>Anita Zaidi </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Vox_FuturePerfect25_AnitaZaidi_MarHernandez.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a bright aqua top with a textured blue background" title="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a bright aqua top with a textured blue background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Mar Hernández for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">It has not been an easy year for women and girls around the world. Cuts to global aid threaten to unravel decades of progress in getting <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-schooling?metric_type=average_years_schooling&amp;level=all&amp;sex=girls">girls to school</a>, keeping <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-maternal-deaths-by-region">mothers safe</a>, and bringing women <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/countries-by-share-of-women-in-parliament">into positions of power</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But there is one reminder that helps Anita Zaidi, head of the Gates Foundation’s gender equality division, maintain what she calls relentless optimism: We’ve come so far.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I get a lot of energy from looking at how much women have achieved over the last 100 years,” <a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/article/melinda-french-gates-is-gone-but-her-vision-for-gender-equality-remains">she told me</a> last year. “Who would have thought that we would have gotten to where we are now?”</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Movers_PullQuote-13.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Zaidi, who is based in Seattle, is a pediatrician by training. She began her career fighting early child mortality in a small fishing village in Pakistan, her home country, eventually winning a <a href="https://apnews.com/general-news-c769c3e09dd34878a28dc92262b11d21">$1 million prize</a> to address malnutrition, improve vaccine and primary health care access, and train midwives and community health workers.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Over the past few decades, Zaidi has pioneered highly successful interventions that take seriously the idea that poverty, at its core, is <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/articles/gender-equality-president-anita-zaidi">sexist</a>, and <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/articles/resources-womens-health-pph">solving</a> global health issues means taking into account entrenched gender dynamics and the role of women from the start.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Now, she has a lot more money to make that happen. In August, the Gates Foundation announced a new <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/articles/2-5-billion-womens-health-innovations">$2.5 billion</a> commitment for research and development to improve women’s health around the world. We’re talking <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/articles/ai-ultrasound-maternal-health">high-tech portable ultrasound devices</a>, <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/our-work/programs/gender-equality/family-planning">contraceptive patches</a> that could be a game-changer for family planning, and simple <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/articles/pph-drape-early-detection">postpartum hemorrhage drapes</a> that can make giving birth much safer.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In other words, Zaidi still has plenty to be optimistic about. Investing in women’s health is “not just the right thing to do,” she told <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/gates-foundation-pledges-2-5b-for-womens-health-worldwide">PBS</a>, but “a tremendous opportunity for coming up with new solutions in a very exciting area of science.” <em>—Sara Herschander, Future Perfect fellow</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Caitlin Tulloch &nbsp;</strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Vox_FuturePerfect25_CaitlinTulloch_MarHernandez.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a grey plaid top with a textured blue background" title="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a grey plaid top with a textured blue background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Mar Hernández for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">After the White House began dismantling the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) early this year, it would have been easy for Caitlin Tulloch to throw up her hands in despair. Instead, the California-based economist did a very economist-y thing: She went to <a href="http://foreignassistance.gov/">ForeignAssistance.gov</a> and downloaded a spreadsheet.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This spreadsheet was a master list of all the 22,000-plus programs that USAID was funding. Tulloch realized that by filtering these programs to find the most cost-effective ones, she could direct interested donors to focus on funding them, thereby saving as many lives as possible.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">She and her colleagues created <a href="https://proimpact.tools/">Project Resource Optimization</a> (PRO) to do exactly that. Soon, they’d narrowed it down to a few dozen programs —&nbsp;offering malnutrition treatment, safe water access, and more — that they labeled “urgent and vetted.”&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In September, PRO <a href="https://proimpact.tools/funding-opps#opp-library">announced</a>, “More than $110 million has been mobilized, ensuring continued delivery of life-saving aid to an estimated 41 million people across more than 30 countries…Given the way these programs are targeted, a large proportion of those reached will be children under the age of five.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What Tulloch did reminds me of a Leonard Cohen <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN7Hn357M6I&amp;list=RDbN7Hn357M6I&amp;start_radio=1">song</a> —&nbsp;the one that urges us, “<a href="https://genius.com/2031760/Leonard-cohen-anthem/Ring-the-bells-that-still-can-ring-forget-your-perfect-offering">Ring the bells that still can ring / Forget your perfect offering</a>.” We can’t perfectly fix every problem in the world. But we can still make the world a better place for some. At a time when many Americans were just struck dumb, Tulloch rang the bells that still can ring. — <em>Sigal Samuel, senior reporter</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Elizabeth (Beth) Cameron</strong> </h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Vox_FuturePerfect25_BethCameron_MarHernandez.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a black top and blue scarf with a textured blue background" title="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a black top and blue scarf with a textured blue background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Mar Hernández for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">In August, biosecurity expert Beth Cameron co-authored a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/08/trump-pandemic-preparedness-ebola-outbreak/683810/">piece</a> for <em>The Atlantic </em>called “No One in the White House Knows How to Stop Ebola.” She’s right. And there is currently still no one in the White House focused on biodefense.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This is a tremendous problem because biological threats don’t wait for a change of administration. We need competent people constantly playing defense.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Cameron would know. She’s spent decades in and out of government playing a pivotal role in global health security efforts. She established and led the National Security Council’s biosecurity office after the 2014 Ebola epidemic. Trump <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/nsc-pandemic-office-trump-closed/2020/03/13/a70de09c-6491-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html">terminated</a> it in his first term, but Cameron reestablished and led it under the Biden administration. She <a href="https://vivo.brown.edu/display/ecamero4">helped oversee</a> the US global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Her work was pivotal to launching the <a href="https://globalhealthsecurityagenda.org">Global Health Security Agenda</a>, a public-private partnership to defend against biological threats, as well as numerous other biosecurity initiatives. She served as the global health security consultant for the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/421105/usaid-pepfar-cuts-death-toll">dearly</a> <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/404040/foreign-aid-cuts-trump-charts-usaid-pepfar-who-hiv">departed</a> USAID.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">She also founded <a href="https://www.nti.org/about/programs-projects/program/global-biological-policy-programs-nti-bio/">NTI | bio</a>, an influential arm of the Nuclear Threat Initiative think tank focused on biosecurity (and, disclosure: my former employer, although unfortunately we didn’t overlap).&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Her current work as the senior advisor at the <a href="https://pandemics.sph.brown.edu">Brown University Pandemic Center</a> is charting the course for a safer future as governments are backing down from their responsibilities on the health security front. She knows that it takes moments to destroy what it takes years to build — funding cuts have decimated America’s biosecurity infrastructure — but she’s not giving up. She’s got a mind for strategy, extensive experience, and a deep commitment to protecting the world from biological risks.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“When you’re in the middle of a crisis and you have to ask for money, you’re already too late,” Cameron told <em>80,000 Hours, </em>a career guidance nonprofit<em>,</em> in a 2017 podcast <a href="https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/beth-cameron-pandemic-preparedness/">interview</a> on pandemic preparedness. “Countries really need to be able to quickly detect and stop outbreaks at the source before they become epidemics. … we really need to be much better prepared to respond in real time than we were during the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.”&nbsp; <em>— Shayna Korol, Future Perfect fellow</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Raed Al-Saleh </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Vox_FuturePerfect25_Raed-Al-Saleh_MarHernandez.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a dark green shirt with a textured blue background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a dark green shirt with a textured blue background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Mar Hernández for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Raed al-Saleh has spent over a decade rescuing Syrians from the rubble in the aftermath of brutal bombings.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A co-founder of the famed <a href="https://whitehelmets.org/">White Helmets</a> — a search and rescue organization that formed as a grassroots volunteer-led response to the Syrian civil war — al-Saleh stood before the United Nations pleading for that work to end last December. He <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241204-syrian-white-helmets-chief-dreams-of-never-pulling-a-body-out-of-rubble-again">slammed</a> the international community for having “utterly failed” Syrians after nearly 14 years of war. “I truly dream that our work of pulling bodies from under the rubble will not continue,&#8221; he told AFP.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Just four days later, Syrian rebels overtook Damascus and the Assad regime <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/389694/syria-rebels-bashar-assad-iran-hts-united-states-refugees-middle-east">collapsed</a>, ending over half a century of brutal rule. But al-Saleh’s work of pulling people from rubble, which earned the White Helmets global <a href="https://whitehelmets.org/about-us/awards-and-recognition">acclaim</a>, three Nobel Peace Prize nominations, and an Academy Award-winning <a href="https://www.vox.com/2017/10/26/18097771/15-best-documentaries-to-stream-right-now-the-white-helmets-netflix">short film</a>, shows no sign of stopping.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As of March, al-Saleh is no longer head of the White Helmets, which dug over 100,000 Syrians out of the rubble and provided a range of other emergency services over the course of 11 years. He is now minister of environment, emergencies, and disaster management in a new Syrian government charged with <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/390261/syria-bashar-assad-damascus-civil-war-refugee">rebuilding</a> a nation ravaged by war.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As part of his new role, al-Saleh is tasked with <a href="https://themedialine.org/mideast-daily-news/wildfires-spread-in-latakia-as-syria-coordinates-regional-response/">battling wildfires</a>, <a href="https://sana.sy/en/local/2270610/">clearing land mines</a>, and <a href="https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5361048">repairing roads</a> across the country, and his over 3,000 now salaried White Helmets have been <a href="https://www.newarab.com/news/syrias-white-helmets-integrate-gov-emergency-services">formally absorbed</a> into the country’s emergency response force. The transition won’t be easy. According to NPR, Al-Saleh now oversees a firefighting force in which White Helmets and Assad-era first responders slide down <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/07/10/g-s1-74722/syria-war-firefighters-white-helmets-assad-trust">separate poles</a> of the firehouse into the same fire truck, responding to emergencies side by side.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But it’s been over a decade since al-Saleh left his pre-war job as an electronics salesman to help build the White Helmets from the ground up. And he has no plans to go back to his day job anytime soon. <em>—Sara Herschander, Future Perfect fellow</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Sabin Nsanzimana </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Vox_FuturePerfect25_Sabin-Nsanzima_MarHernandez.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a blue suit with a textured blue background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a blue suit with a textured blue background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Mar Hernández for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Inside a tin mine in Rwanda, a fruit bat infected a worker with the deadly Marburg virus in September 2024. It was the country’s first case of the highly contagious virus, a relative of Ebola, and initially, global health officials feared for the worst.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But by December, something remarkable had happened. In just three months, Rwandan health officials — led by Sabin Nsanzimana, the country’s minister of health — made one of the largest Marburg outbreaks ever disappear.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">How? Over the past three decades, Rwanda, a country once ravaged by genocide, has managed to pull off a wholesale transformation of its health care system. After years spent prioritizing health spending, and after building over 1,000 new health posts and a community-based insurance program, almost every Rwandan now has <a href="https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/rwandas-health-care-success-holds-lessons-others">health coverage</a>. Life expectancy has shot up by <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=RW">26 years</a>. Child mortality has <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/rwanda">plunged</a> by nearly 78 percent since the turn of the century. It used to take most rural Rwandans more than an hour to reach the nearest health facility on foot, but thanks to a surge in new locations, most can now get the help they need in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hu9Y1u1OebQ">less than 30 minutes</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The country has also become a model in <a href="https://magazine.hms.harvard.edu/articles/building-cancer-care-ground-rwanda">global cancer care</a>, and just this summer, Rwanda’s community-based health insurance program began making cancer treatments <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=rwanda+free+cancer+care&amp;sca_esv=d05a4234866c3ef7&amp;source=lnms&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwi_yfLshqeQAxWpK1kFHQa8IlU4ChDSlAl6BAgCEAU&amp;biw=1198&amp;bih=721&amp;dpr=2">free</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So by the time the Marburg virus broke out, Rwanda was ready. It took Nsanzimana just 10 days to roll out an emergency <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-025-01224-8">vaccine</a> trial for the virus. The country mounted a contact-tracing and surveillance response so quickly that <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/supporting-resilient-health-systems-abroad-protects-us-all/">doctors have wondered</a> what could’ve been different had the world responded to Covid-19 with the same urgency.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The threat of the Marburg virus has passed, but Nsanzimana says the country’s health care revolution is far from over. Next on his list is eradicating <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/rwanda-advances-cancer-control-with-focus-on-cervical-cancer-and-health-workforce-development">cervical cancer</a> by 2027, dramatically expanding the <a href="https://rbc.gov.rw/wp/rwanda-unveils-fifth-health-sector-strategic-plan-to-advance-universal-health-coverage/">medical workforce</a>, and achieving <a href="https://www.google.com/search?q=rwanda+goal+2030+health&amp;sca_esv=465159d7bf2b0b64&amp;biw=1140&amp;bih=722&amp;ei=h4ywaPv6CuOcptQPz8aXgQ4&amp;ved=0ahUKEwi72qbi_q2PAxVjjokEHU_jJeA4ChDh1QMIEA&amp;uact=5&amp;oq=rwanda+goal+2030+health&amp;gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiF3J3YW5kYSBnb2FsIDIwMzAgaGVhbHRoMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMgUQIRigATIFECEYnwUyBRAhGJ8FSKgHUMQCWJgGcAF4AZABAJgBa6ABngWqAQM0LjO4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgigAr4FwgIKEAAYsAMY1gQYR8ICBRAhGKsCmAMAiAYBkAYIkgcDNC40oAe9JbIHAzMuNLgHugXCBwUwLjQuNMgHFA&amp;sclient=gws-wiz-serp">universal health insurance coverage</a> by 2030.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And if he could beat Marburg in three months, he might just be able to pull it off.&nbsp;&nbsp;<em>—Sara Herschander, Future Perfect fellow</em></p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Sigal Samuel</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Pratik Pawar</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Shayna Korol</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Paige Vega</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The future of global health is at stake. These 7 pioneers could revolutionize it.]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469222/future-perfect-25-global-health-vaccines-ai-breakthroughs" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=469222</id>
			<updated>2025-11-19T10:31:32-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-11-19T06:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="The Future Perfect 25" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The grand challenges of global health and development, from feeding a warming world to defeating antibiotic resistance, require funding and effort and politics. But they also require breakthroughs. In the last hundred years, we’ve made incredible progress fighting malaria, invented game-changing vaccines, and developed new drugs that could change the course on heart disease. But [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
							<content type="html">
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<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Vox_FuturePerfect25_TheInnovators_MichaelHoeweler.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">The grand challenges of global health and development, from feeding a warming world to defeating antibiotic resistance, require funding and effort and politics. But they also require breakthroughs.</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>This story is part of the 2025 Future Perfect 25</strong></h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">Every year, the Future Perfect team curates the undersung activists, organizers, and thinkers who are making the world a better place. This year’s honorees are all keeping progress on global health and development alive. Read more about <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/468923/global-health-development-poverty-trump-usaid-future-perfect">the project here</a>, and check out the other categories:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469219/future-perfect-25-big-thinkers-solutions-foreign-aid-masculinity-development" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469219/future-perfect-25-big-thinkers-solutions-foreign-aid-masculinity-development">Thinkers</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469225/free-cancer-treatment-ms-rachel-transform-global-health" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469225/free-cancer-treatment-ms-rachel-transform-global-health">Movers and Shakers</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469231/future-perfect-25-global-mental-health-solutions-organizers" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469231/future-perfect-25-global-mental-health-solutions-organizers">On the Ground</a></li>
</ul>



<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Have ideas for who should be on next year’s list?</strong> Email us at <a href="mailto:futureperfect@vox.com">futureperfect@vox.com</a>.</p>
</div>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the last hundred years, we’ve made incredible progress fighting malaria, invented game-changing vaccines, and developed new drugs that could change the course on heart disease. But that doesn’t mean we should be satisfied. There’s still plenty of work to be done, and it’s all the more important in light of the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/421659/foreign-aid-increase-spain-ireland-usaid">worldwide retreat of foreign aid</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><br><br>This year&#8217;s class of innovators are the scientists, technologists, and entrepreneurs who understand that real progress demands radical new tools. They&#8217;re engineering microbes to clean up pollution, resurrecting ancient antibiotics with the help of AI, and building entirely new platforms for vaccine production in the Global South. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Their work is a vibrant proof point: the future of human well-being, the fight against pandemic threats, and the resilience of our food supply all depend on the creative, sometimes audacious, power of innovation.<em>&nbsp;—Izzie Ramirez, deputy editor</em></p>

<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>César de la Fuente&nbsp; </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Hoeweler_Vox_CesarDeLaFuente_FP25.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a blue collared shirt with a painterly yellow and green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a blue collared shirt with a painterly yellow and green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Michael Hoeweler for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Every 15 minutes, one person in the US dies because of an infection that <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/11/14/20963824/drug-resistance-antibiotics-cdc-report">antibiotics can no longer treat effectively</a>. If you ever get an antibiotic-resistant infection, it could be César de la Fuente’s research that ends up saving your life.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">De la Fuente heads a lab at the University of Pennsylvania called the <a href="https://delafuentelab.seas.upenn.edu/">Machine Biology Group</a>, which is helping to pioneer the field of AI-based antibiotic discovery. His team developed the first computer-designed antibiotic with proven efficacy in preclinical animal models.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Innovators_PullQuote-14.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">You can thank this team for launching us into the brave new world of “molecular de-extinction”: In 2023, they <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23811682/ai-neanderthal-antibiotics-extinction">resurrected molecules with antibiotic properties found in extinct organisms —&nbsp;Neanderthals</a>. After training an AI model to make predictions about which molecules might make effective antibiotics for our modern age, they created those molecules in the lab and tested them in infected mice, with promising results.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Emboldened by this success, <a href="https://www.americanscientist.org/article/computer-designed-antibiotics">de la Fuente asked</a>: “Why not just mine every extinct organism known to science?” To do that, the team developed a more powerful AI model called APEX, which they unveiled earlier this year. Already, it’s allowed them to identify new molecules in everything from ancient penguins to magnolia trees that had long since disappeared.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This work is very cool —&nbsp;and very urgent. By 2050, 10 million people could die each year from diseases that have grown resistant to drugs. Yet <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/5/7/18535480/drug-resistance-antibiotics-un-report">Big Pharma lacks the financial incentive</a> to create new antibiotics. That makes the creative research of scientists like de la Fuente incredibly valuable. —<em>Sigal Samuel, senior reporter</em><br></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Esther Wanjiru Kimani&nbsp;</strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Hoeweler_Vox_EstherWanjirukimani_FP25.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a blue suit jacket with a painterly yellow and green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a blue suit jacket with a painterly yellow and green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Michael Hoeweler for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">On a sun-baked morning in central Kenya, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWjm_zvdYdI">a small solar-powered device blinks to life</a> beside a row of bean plants. It scans the leaves with a tiny camera, searching for the first signs of disease — the faint spots that might spell disaster for a farmer’s season. The machine was built by Esther Wanjiru Kimani, a computer scientist who believes technology’s most meaningful frontier isn’t in Silicon Valley. It’s in the fields <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/ojlkixcwdwdowdocscso/posts/24307355308872435/">where food begins</a>.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Innovators_PullQuote-15.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Kimani grew up in Tigoni, a rural and mountainous village in Kenya, watching her parents battle unpredictable harvests. Each year, pests and blights crept through their crops faster than they could react. Years later, after she earned a degree in computer science from the University of Eldoret, northwest of Nairobi, she founded <a href="https://farmerlifeline.co.ke/">Farmer Lifeline Technologies</a>, a startup that uses artificial intelligence to help smallholder farmers detect pests and diseases before they spread.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Her device, affordable and solar-powered, takes images of crops and then analyzes them in real time with machine-learning models. If the scan detects something amiss, it sends early-warning texts to farmers’ phones.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s a simple system, but it could have profound implications in her home country and beyond: fewer chemical sprays, healthier yields, and more resilient livelihoods. In field trials, farmers using her technology have reduced crop losses by up to 30 percent and seen yield gains of roughly 40 percent — a game-changer in regions where even small fluctuations can decide whether a family has enough money to survive.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Kimani’s work has earned global attention. In 2024, she <a href="https://www.afdb.org/en/news-and-events/esther-kimani-2022-youth-adapt-winner-awarded-2024-africa-prize-engineering-innovation-72563">won</a> the Africa Prize for Engineering Innovation, becoming one of the few women — and one of the youngest — to ever receive the honor. I find her so inspiring because what her work embodies feels both humble and radical — and breaks the form of what you’d normally hear in the AI startup space.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Her technology is an act of care. —<em>Paige Vega, senior climate and Future Perfect editor&nbsp;</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Gagandeep Kang </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Hoeweler_Vox_Gagandeepkang_FP25.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a dark green dress with a painterly yellow, blue, and green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a dark green dress with a painterly yellow, blue, and green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Michael Hoeweler for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Few scientists have done more to turn India’s vaccine ambition into a working system than Gagandeep Kang.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Kang is known for her critical role in advancing vaccines such as the one against rotavirus, a gut virus responsible for deadly bouts of diarrhea in young children. But Kang’s impact runs deeper than any single shot: She helped build the evidence, trial capacity, and translational systems that move vaccines in India from lab bench to bedside.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Kang began her career in the late 1980s as a microbiologist at the Christian Medical College in India, tracking the gut viruses that were <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264410X09013097">hospitalizing hundreds of thousands of children and killing over 100,000 a year</a>. Her early work on diarrheal diseases and rotavirus laid the groundwork for India’s vaccine research, then still in its infancy. In 2018, the World Health Organization approved Rotovac for global use — the first Indian-developed vaccine to meet international quality standards. A year later, India <a href="https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1581639">rolled it out nationwide</a>, marking a turning point against one of its deadliest childhood infections. Today, Rotavac is used in several countries, including Ghana and Palestine, where it’s part of national immunization programs.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Innovators_PullQuote-16.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Kang has advised governments and the WHO, pushed for stronger ethics boards and transparent data, and led India’s <a href="https://thsti.res.in/">Translational Health Science and Technology Institute</a> to build clinical trial capacity from the ground up. In short, she brought order and rigor to India’s clinical research. During the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, she became India’s <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/india/gagandeep-kang-a-sane-voice-in-the-time-of-covid-19-vaccine-uncertainty-940009.html">clearest public voice</a> on tackling misinformation — she was measured, data-driven, and unwilling to trade science for politics.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In early January 2021, when India’s regulator approved the home-grown Covid-19 shot Covaxin before publishing results from its final round of testing, Kang publicly warned against the move: “Essentially, you are handing people who are anti-vaccine, anti-science, a weapon that they can use,” she <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/i-have-no-clue-i-have-never-seen-anything-like-it/articleshow/80087336.cms">told the Times of India</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Now at the <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/about/leadership/gagandeep-kang">Gates Foundation</a>, Kang oversees global work on enteric infections, diagnostics, and genomics — the unsexy, but critical, plumbing in public health. Kang has spent her career proving that trust and transparency are as vital to public health as the vaccines themselves. <em>—Pratik Pawar, Future Perfect fellow</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Geoffrey Otim</strong> </h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Hoeweler_Vox_GeoffreyOtim_FP25.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a green suit and blue tie with a painterly yellow and green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a green suit and blue tie with a painterly yellow and green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Michael Hoeweler for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Synthetic biology is a field that redesigns life itself — <a href="https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/policy-issues/Synthetic-Biology">engineering</a> organisms to have new abilities. Already, we can harness microbes to <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.00808/full">clean</a> up the environment or <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2025/04/synthetic-biology-research-sustainability-solutions">create</a> sustainable fuels, and it’s only just the beginning.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The field has <a href="https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/ResearchInsight/synthetic-biology-market-regional-insights.asp#:~:text=The%20global%20synthetic%20biology%20market,%2C%20medical%2C%20and%20environmental%20applications.">exploded</a> in the past few decades around the world, but it’s been <a href="https://allianceforscience.org/blog/2021/11/synthetic-biology-in-africa-golden-opportunity-once-regulations-are-in-place/#:~:text=Share,technology%20and%20innovation%20in%20Kenya.">slower</a> to catch on in Africa. Geoffrey Otim wants to change that.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Otim is the founder and CEO of <a href="https://ug.linkedin.com/company/synbio-africa">SynBio Africa</a>, a forum for advancing synthetic biology on the continent. Otim has extensive health security experience and spent more than eight years at a polio and measles laboratory in Uganda, working on outbreak response.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">He also <a href="https://ghsn.org/people/geoffrey-otim/">consults</a> for the UN while completing his doctoral work at the University of Queensland, which <a href="https://aibn.uq.edu.au/profile/13946/geoffrey-otim">focuses</a> on producing sustainable aviation fuel from genetically engineered microbial strains.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This offers tremendous promise, especially for Africa. The continent has and continues to endure extensive <a href="https://borgenproject.org/historical-resource-extraction/#:~:text=Historical%20Resource%20Extraction%20and%20Economic,distribution%20remains%20a%20significant%20issue.">resource</a> <a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2024/10/28/foreign-countries-are-lining-up-to-exploit-africas-critical-minerals/#:~:text=Countries%20like%20the%20Democratic%20Republic,like%20the%20Inflation%20Reduction%20Act.">extraction</a>, leading to African countries relying heavily on raw exports, which are commonly controlled by international companies and largely fail to translate to wealth for Africa’s people. Synthetic biology offers the potential to change the game.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2018, Otim founded East Africa’s first International Genetically Engineered Machine (<a href="https://igem.org">iGEM</a>) team. iGEM is an international organization that aims to foster talent and hosts the world’s largest synthetic biology competition. “We are determined to use synthetic biology to create both a better Africa and a better world,” Otim’s iGEM team said in a <a href="https://www.twistbioscience.com/blog/company-news-updates/makerere-igem-2018-ugandas-first-igem-team-turns-waste-plastic-fuel">statement</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Three years later, Otim spearheaded the first synthetic biology conference on the continent. He’s a strong advocate for using synthetic biology to create sustainable biofuels and potentially revolutionize the African economy, generate <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590174525000212#:~:text=Food%20waste%20is%20rich%20in,energy%20production%20and%20waste%20management.">clean energy</a>, and greatly improve health outcomes for all of humanity.&nbsp;<em>—Shayna Korol, Future Perfect fellow</em><br></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Soham Sankaran</strong> </h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Hoeweler_Vox_SohamSankaran_FP25.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a green and blue button-down shirt with a painterly yellow, blue, and green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a green and blue button-down shirt with a painterly yellow, blue, and green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Michael Hoeweler for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Soham Sankaran <a href="https://chronicles.popvax.com/p/three-meetings-and-six-million-funerals">calls himself</a> a “lapsed computer science researcher.” He left Cornell&#8217;s PhD program in robotics during the first year of the pandemic and took a sharp turn into — of all things — biology. During the Covid-19 pandemic, he watched India’s brutal Delta wave and ensuing vaccine shortages, and he decided that if no one in India was going to build cutting-edge vaccine tech, he would.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In late 2021, he founded PopVax, an mRNA vaccine startup in Hyderabad, a major city in southern India.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">PopVax is trying to build broadly protective vaccines — shots that can protect against whole families of viruses, not just one strain at a time. To do that, Sankaran’s team uses computer models to predict which parts of a virus are least likely to change, and design mRNA vaccines that train the immune system to target those stable pieces. They’re also building the tools and capacity to make these kinds of vaccines, eventually at scale.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And the work is starting to get noticed. The <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241113245697/en/PopVax-Announces-that-the-U.S.-National-Institute-of-Allergy-and-Infectious-Diseases-will-Conduct-and-Sponsor-the-U.S.-based-Phase-I-Clinical-Trial-of-PopVaxs-Next-Generation-mRNA-LNP-COVID-19-Vaccine-as-part-of-the-U.S.-Governments-Project-NextGen">National Institutes of Health will test</a> PopVax’s next-gen Covid-19 booster in US clinical trials this year. The <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/about/committed-grants/2023/10/inv-062776">Gates Foundation is funding</a> the team’s push to make mRNA vaccines that stay stable in an ordinary drive, and BARDA — the US government’s biomedical R&amp;D agency — <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250113384141/en/PopVax-is-Awarded-2-Million-USD-as-One-of-the-Winners-of-the-BARDA-Patch-Forward-Prize-for-its-Seasonal-Influenza-Vaccine-built-on-a-Novel-mRNA-encoded-Immunogen-Display-Architecture-Delivered-via-Dissolvable-Microarray-Patch">awarded</a> PopVax $2 million in January 2025 to develop a needle-free patch for an mRNA flu vaccine that could be self-applied like a Band-Aid.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Sankaran’s pitch for this work is as moral as it is technical. He’s driven by the memory of AIDS-era drug inequity — when lifesaving HIV medicines were locked behind Western patents — and the belief that a life in Lagos or Lucknow should count the same as one in Los Angeles. “Unless we control intellectual property…we will continue to be treated as second class,” he said in a podcast appearance on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ep-50-mrna-vaccines-in-india-ft-soham-sankaran/id1570520230?i=1000625102930"><em>Bretton Goods</em></a><em>,</em> “so, we have to do the research ourselves.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">With PopVax, he is trying to make that vision real — proving that smarter vaccine designs, faster platforms, and local capacity that can turn pandemic response from charity into competence, and more importantly, move lifesaving vaccines from the margins to the mainstream in the Global South. <em>—Pratik Pawar, Future Perfect fellow</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Maxwell Scott</strong>&nbsp;</h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Hoeweler_Vox_MaxwellScott_FP25.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a dark green collared shirt with a painterly yellow, blue, and green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a dark green collared shirt with a painterly yellow, blue, and green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Michael Hoeweler for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Screwworms — gnarly flesh-eating parasites with a notorious reputation — are <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/460454/new-world-screwworm-case-us-human-cattle-beef">back at the US’s doorstep</a>. Last month, Mexico <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/24/science/screwworm-cattle-mexico.html">confirmed</a> a case in the northern border state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from Texas, and both countries are scrambling to hold the line.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s a familiar crisis for Maxwell Scott, the molecular geneticist at North Carolina State University who’s devoted much of his career to outsmarting the screwworm.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The US first beat these pests in the 1950s and ’60s using something called the <a href="https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/factsheet-eradicating-nws-sit.pdf">sterile insect technique</a>: The US Department of Agriculture would flood the landscape with sterilized males so wild females mate with them and lay eggs that never hatch. That strategy worked so well that, by the 1990s, screwworms were eliminated from the US and Mexico and pushed back to a narrow barrier in Panama’s Darién Gap. Today, Panama still maintains that sterile-fly barrier, a decades-long living fence keeping these pests from creeping north again.<br><br>Scott was so inspired by that success that he has been quietly reinventing it for the 21st century.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In his <a href="https://cals.ncsu.edu/entomology-and-plant-pathology/people/mjscott3/">lab</a>, Scott built a male-only screwworm line so control programs can release just males. This way there are no stray females, and every released fly competes for mates in the wild. It’s “a green technology,” he told me in a recent interview, “because it’s the pest itself that’s the control agent.” One of his engineered strains of the insect has even been field tested in Panama to measure how far the males flew and how long they lasted.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">He’s also pushing the idea further with CRISPR, a gene-editing tool that can rewrite DNA with surgical precision. Instead of sterilizing males and releasing them over and over again — an expensive routine that never fully keeps the flies from rebounding — these CRISPR-edited flies carry a genetic tweak that breaks the fertility gene in some of their offspring, making them unable to reproduce and thinning the population from within.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s a fix that could reshape how we control screwworms. But for now, Scott says, it’s grounded more by politics than by science. “In the United States, we may never move away from [traditionally] sterilized males,” partly because of public wariness about genetic engineering. But in places like South America, where screwworms remain a scourge, these tools might find a warmer welcome, he says.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Scott’s work sits at the uneasy frontier of climate, genetics, and food security — exactly the kind of science we’ll need more of as a warming world helps parasites push farther and faster. <em>—Pratik Pawar, Future Perfect fellow</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Yibo Li </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Hoeweler_Vox_yiboli_FP25.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a blue collared shirt with a painterly yellow and green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a blue collared shirt with a painterly yellow and green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Michael Hoeweler for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">In the paddies of China’s Yangtze River basin, the future of rice may hinge on a single gene.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Yibo Li, a plant geneticist at Huazhong Agricultural University, has helped uncover a temperature-sensitive gene in rice that threatens yields and grain quality as global temperatures rise. And now, he’s found a way to essentially turn it off.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Li and his team tested more than 530 rice varieties across four locations where nighttime temperatures have increased, searching for strains that could withstand heat. By examining which grains became chalky and which stayed translucent, they tracked the genetic markers responsible for the plant’s response. Their work, <a href="https://www.cell.com/cell/abstract/S0092-8674(25)00413-1">published earlier this year</a> in the journal <em>Cell</em>, showed that modifying the gene or breeding naturally heat-resistant variants produced rice that retained both yield and quality under hot conditions.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This “reflects real-world environments, making the identified resistance genes more authentic and readily applicable to breeding programs,” <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2025/05/29/rice-climate-change-heat-gene/">Li told the Washington Post</a>. In practical terms, the modified rice maintained its yield while unmodified crops produced up to 58 percent less grain — a dramatic difference with enormous implications for global food security. <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/rice/rice-sector-at-a-glance#:~:text=Rice%20is%20the%20primary%20staple%20food%20for,in%20Asia%20from%20the%20Graminaceae%20(grass)%20family.">More than half of the world’s population</a> relies on rice as a primary food staple.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Li’s vision extends beyond rice. He sees his findings as a possible template for tackling the climate challenge in other staple crops, like wheat, aiming to break the traditional trade-off between yield and quality. “Ultimately, we aim to develop innovative breeding strategies for high-yield, superior-quality crops,” he said. In a world where every extra degree of warmth can devastate harvests, Yibo Li’s work could be revolutionary for global food security. —<em>Paige Vega, senior climate and Future Perfect editor</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Sara Herschander</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Kenny Torrella</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Marina Bolotnikova</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Bryan Walsh</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Paige Vega</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The 6 big thinkers reshaping foreign aid, masculinity, and development]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469219/future-perfect-25-big-thinkers-solutions-foreign-aid-masculinity-development" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=469219</id>
			<updated>2025-11-20T12:38:34-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-11-19T06:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="The Future Perfect 25" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The roots of the world’s most stubborn global health problems&#160;don&#8217;t yield to vibes-based solutions. They surrender to data, rigor, and the surprisingly radical idea of actually trying to figure out what works.&#160; Governments and nonprofit organizations depend on the economists, activists, policymakers, and writers who are reshaping how we understand poverty, health, and progress. They’re [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="An illustration of a young boy looking out toward his friends playing with a ball. In the foreground, just behind the boy, several hands are holding pages with numbers and equations covering them." data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Vox_FuturePerfect25_TheThinkers_NicoleRifkin.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>This story is part of the 2025 Future Perfect 25</strong></h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">Every year, the Future Perfect team curates the undersung activists, organizers, and thinkers who are making the world a better place. This year’s honorees are all keeping progress on global health and development alive. Read more about <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/468923/global-health-development-poverty-trump-usaid-future-perfect">the project here</a>, and check out the other categories:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469231/future-perfect-25-global-mental-health-solutions-organizers" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469231/future-perfect-25-global-mental-health-solutions-organizers">On the Ground</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469222/future-perfect-25-global-health-vaccines-ai-breakthroughs" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469222/future-perfect-25-global-health-vaccines-ai-breakthroughs">Innovators</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469225/free-cancer-treatment-ms-rachel-transform-global-health" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/469225/free-cancer-treatment-ms-rachel-transform-global-health">Movers and Shakers</a></li>
</ul>



<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Have ideas for who should be on next year’s list?</strong> Email us at <a href="mailto:futureperfect@vox.com">futureperfect@vox.com</a>.</p>
</div>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The roots of the world’s most stubborn global health problems&nbsp;don&#8217;t yield to vibes-based solutions. They surrender to data, rigor, and the surprisingly radical idea of actually trying to figure out what works.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Governments and nonprofit organizations depend on the economists, activists, policymakers, and writers who are reshaping how we understand poverty, health, and progress. They’re the ones making sure that every dollar saves the maximum number of lives, that foreign aid is steered by evidence instead of dogma.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">They’re also the ones who are open to trying something new, such as giving the simplest solutions — like a plate of beans or a clear-eyed approach to masculinity — the platform they deserve. Because when it comes to making the world better, good intentions are just the starting line.<em> — Izzie Ramirez, deputy editor</em></p>

<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none" id="dean-karlan"><strong>Dean Karlan </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/NicoleRifkin_Vox_FuturePerfect_DeanKarlan.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a blue shirt with a green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a blue shirt with a green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Nicole Rifkin for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">When the Trump administration sicced its newly minted “Department of Government Efficiency” on the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/406022/usaid-foreign-aid-trump-rubio-cuts-gavi-vaccines">US Agency for International Development</a> earlier this year, for just a moment, Dean Karlan offered to help.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After all, as USAID’s first chief economist, Karlan’s life’s work revolved around efficiency. His job was to help the agency stretch its dollars more effectively, save more lives, and propel US goals around the world. He has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/09/magazine/09Psychology-t.html">preached</a> against waste, fraud, and abuse for longer than some of the <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-government-young-engineers/">DOGE</a> bros have been alive.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I’m not a political appointee,” he told me earlier this year. “I’m just a dorky wonk who was on detail and who cares about the evidence of impact.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But it quickly became clear to Karlan that DOGE’s wrecking crew couldn&#8217;t care less about evaluating programs or prioritizing cost-effectiveness. His overtures to help went unanswered. Eventually, as he watched Elon Musk and Secretary of State Marco Rubio take a sledgehammer to relatively cheap, lifesaving initiatives like <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/402944/pepfar-hiv-donald-trump-elon-musk-global-health">PEPFAR</a>, as longstanding colleagues were sacked, and the agency <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/musk-says-administration-is-on-verge-of-shutting-usaid/">denigrated</a> as a “ball of worms” and a “criminal organization” that needs “<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/02/02/g-s1-46007/usaid-web-site-trump-state-department">to die</a>,” Karlan did the only honorable thing left to do: He quit.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And, like thousands of other morally indignant ex-USAID employees, he can’t stop talking about what’s been left behind. While Karlan is the first to say the status quo wasn’t perfect, the Trump administration’s dismantling of the agency has been absolutely catastrophic for vulnerable people around the world.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Karlan, who’s also a professor of economics and finance at Northwestern University, has kept busy since quitting USAID. He is the founder of Innovations for Poverty Action, a nonprofit studying solutions to global poverty, and ImpactMatters, a nonprofit that rates charities and was later acquired by Charity Navigator. He has spoken far and wide about what the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/421659/foreign-aid-increase-spain-ireland-usaid">future</a> may hold, and he is currently working on a bipartisan plan to restore a semblance of American foreign aid the morning after the Trump era comes to a close.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Karlan is still hopeful that the US can one day rebuild the architecture behind its global aid strategy. And when that time comes, he&#8217;ll be ready to talk efficiency — with anyone who actually wants to listen. <em>—Sara Herschander, Future Perfect fellow</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none" id="gary-barker"><strong>Gary Barker </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/NicoleRifkin_Vox_FuturePerfect_GaryBarker.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a green suit jacket with a green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a green suit jacket with a green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Nicole Rifkin for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Concerns around the modern <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/388155/giving-tuesday-2024-men-issues-charities">“masculinity crisis&#8221;</a> — a catch-all term for worsening mental health among boys and men — has reached a fever pitch in recent years. And for good reason: Male suicide rates have been on the rise, men are working less, and boys are falling behind in education, among other troubling indicators.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As former Vox fellow Celia Ford has <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/388155/giving-tuesday-2024-men-issues-charities">written</a>, the crisis is “driving many young men toward the far-right ‘manosphere’ — where anachronistic attitudes about women, society, and gender roles are resurging.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.equimundo.org/about/#gary-barker">Gary Barker</a>, co-founder and CEO of Equimundo, a global research nonprofit working to “shift norms, narratives, and policies” around gender equality in the US and beyond, has been working for decades to build a counter to the manosphere attitude; it’s what he calls <a href="https://www.weforum.org/podcasts/meet-the-leader/episodes/gary-barker-positive-masculinity-gender-gap/">“positive masculinity.”</a> His vision replaces the increasingly regressive view of manhood, based on ruthless competition, aggression, and emotional detachment, with one based on vulnerability, kindness, and warmth.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That vision is being realized through Equimundo’s innovative initiatives: The organization’s educational and activities-based MenCare+ program <a href="https://www.equimundo.org/resources/bandebereho-role-model-fathers-and-couples-program-reduces-domestic-violence-by-44/">reduced violence by men against their partners</a> in Rwanda by over 40 percent in a randomized control trial. Similar trials in other countries that used <a href="https://www.equimundo.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Program-H-Eva.-Report-2.-September-2021.pdf">Program H</a> — the organization’s program for young boys and girls — demonstrated positive effects, too.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Equimundo also operates the <a href="https://www.equimundo.org/images-research/">IMAGES survey</a> to understand men and women’s attitudes about gender equality, which since 2008 has interviewed 67,000 people in over 30 countries.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“We need to create space for more young men to be curious, to ask questions,” Barker wrote in a <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/its-time-talk-about-what-it-means-man-us-opinion-1815290">2023 op-ed</a> co-authored with Shaunna Thomas of the feminist nonprofit Ultraviolet. We need space for men, Barker and Thomas wrote, to “be unafraid and to explore a new, healthier model of identity.”&nbsp;<em>— Kenny Torrella, senior reporter</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none" id="ken-opalo"><strong>Ken Opalo </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/NicoleRifkin_Vox_FuturePerfect_KenOpalo.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man with glasses wearing a blue shirt and black sweater with a green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man with glasses wearing a blue shirt and black sweater with a green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Nicole Rifkin for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Ken Opalo speaks about African politics the way some people talk about family: with affection, frustration, and an understanding of how hard it can be sometimes to make things work. At Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service, where he teaches political science, he’s <a href="https://kenopalo.com/legislative-development/">made a study of Africa’s legislatures</a>, tracing how power actually travels through them and how, despite the obstacles, it sometimes finds its way to the people it’s meant to serve.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Thinkers_PullQuote-17.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Born and raised in Nairobi, Kenya, and then educated at Yale and Stanford, Opalo established himself with his 2019 book, <em>Legislative Development in Africa</em>, as a gentle challenger to the easy clichés about Africa. The text is academic, but it reads more like a diagnosis (or even a love letter). It provides an account of how governments across the continent have grown not just from colonial scaffolds but from the chaos, ingenuity, and sheer persistence that followed independence. Institutions, he reminds us, aren’t dropped from the sky. They’re built, brick by imperfect brick, through struggle, compromise, and — truly — luck.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">These days, Opalo is wrestling with what he calls “the growth question.” To him, development isn’t a glossy summit or a well-phrased aid campaign. It’s about building states that work, schools that teach, tax systems that function, and putting in place leaders who answer to the people who elect them. “Without growth,” <a href="https://energyforgrowth.org/article/episode-32-ken-opalo-why-growth-must-be-at-the-center-of-africas-future/">he says</a>, “everything else is noise.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Beyond academia, Opalo writes <a href="https://www.africanistperspective.com/">An Africanist Perspective</a>, a Substack newsletter where he translates political economy into stories that feel as lived-in as they are smart. There’s wit there, and weariness too. But Opalo is no doubt an optimist. He refuses to romanticize but insists that progress in the Global South will come because people refuse to give up on the hard, unglamorous work of democracy.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In both his scholarship and his storytelling, Opalo clearly believes the future is still being written by those who refuse to settle for dysfunction. —<em>Paige Vega, senior climate and Future Perfect editor&nbsp;</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none" id="pascaline-dupas"><strong>Pascaline Dupas &nbsp;</strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/NicoleRifkin_Vox_FuturePerfect_PascalineDupas.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a lime green shirt with a dark green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a woman wearing a lime green shirt with a dark green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Nicole Rifkin for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Pascaline Dupas is one of the more prolific and accomplished economists dedicated to reducing global poverty.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">An economics professor at Princeton University, Dupas has published novel, highly cited papers on how <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w14693/w14693.pdf">access to banking</a> affects small business development in Kenya, the effects of <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w14475/w14475.pdf">separating students into groups by achievement levels</a>, and the power of <a href="https://escholarship.org/content/qt4b7043jq/qt4b7043jq.pdf">distributing free bednets to prevent malaria</a>, to name just a few. Her research has <a href="https://poverty-action.org/impact/free-malaria-bednets">influenced</a> British foreign aid, government policy in several African countries, the <a href="https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/taking-financial-bite-out-malaria-prevention">World Health Organization</a>, large NGOs, and <a href="https://siepr.stanford.edu/news/taking-financial-bite-out-malaria-prevention">global health practitioners</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">An avid collaborator, Dupas is also a scientific director at <a href="https://www.povertyactionlab.org/">J-PAL</a> — a network of hundreds of researchers conducting randomized control trials (the gold standard in research design) to figure out what policy interventions can best lift households out of poverty. In 2019, J-PAL’s founders were awarded <a href="https://www.povertyactionlab.org/updates/j-pal-co-founders-abhijit-banerjee-and-esther-duflo-awarded-nobel-memorial-prize-1">the Nobel prize in economics</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Dupas herself has been directly recognized for her contributions to the field; in 2015, she was named the Best Young French Economist by the French newspaper <em>Le Monde</em>, and years later, was awarded a prestigious Guggenheim fellowship. — <em>Kenny Torrella, senior reporter</em>&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none" id="paul-newnham"><strong>Paul Newnham </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/NicoleRifkin_Vox_FuturePerfect_PaulNewnham.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a blue shirt with a green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a blue shirt with a green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Nicole Rifkin for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Paul Newnham wants to make beans sexy.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If that sounds weird to you, consider that beans are <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/5/12/23717519/beans-protein-nutrition-sustainability-climate-food-security-solution-vegan-alternative-meat">the healthiest, most sustainable (by far), most affordable</a> protein source on Earth. Their richness in vitamins, minerals, and fiber make them an ideal solution to malnutrition in low-income countries, as well as to chronic diet-related diseases in wealthy countries. And they’re diverse and versatile enough to be enjoyed in cuisines from every part of the world, from a garlicky Egyptian ful medames to an indulgent South Asian rajma.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Thinkers_PullQuote-19.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">But beans suffer from a PR problem. They’re so cheap and they’ve long been so foundational to human diets that they aren’t aspirational, generally falling by the wayside as soon as a country becomes rich enough to eat large quantities of meat. Newnham leads <a href="https://sdg2advocacyhub.org/beans-is-how/">Beans Is How</a> — a campaign founded at the COP27 climate conference in 2022, aiming to double global bean consumption by 2028 — to change that. With a coalition of more than 120 partners globally, the initiative has secured commitments to get more beans onto menus around the world, from school meals to high-end, culturally influential restaurants. Partner organization AGRA (formerly the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa), for example, has helped serve high-iron beans, or beans bred to have extra-high iron content, to tens of thousands of schoolchildren in Kenya.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Creative, ambitious work on beans has already been happening in siloes, from agricultural research to elite gastronomy. Newnham is unifying those efforts into an overhaul of the reputation of the humble bean, repositioning it as a sophisticated, modern solution for both people and the planet. —<em>Marina Bolotnikova, deputy editor</em></p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none" id="oliver-kim"><strong>Oliver Kim </strong></h2>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/NicoleRifkin_Vox_FuturePerfect_OliverKim.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a yellow shirt with a green background" title="an illustrated portrait of a man wearing a yellow shirt with a green background" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Nicole Rifkin for Vox" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">The best case for why development economics still matters is being made on Substack. In his <a href="https://www.global-developments.org/">Global Developments</a> newsletter, Oliver Kim — a <a href="https://coefficientgiving.org/team/oliver-kim/">Coefficient Giving research fellow</a> — does something rare. He takes big, messy arguments about poverty, growth, and aid and rebuilds them from the data up.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/11/Thinkers_PullQuote-18.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">That means puncturing zombie “facts,” as he did in a <a href="https://www.global-developments.org/p/no-south-korea-was-not-poorer-than">viral post</a> explaining why South Korea was <em>not</em> actually poorer than Kenya in 1960. It’s <a href="https://www.global-developments.org/p/a-world-without-aid">re-examining foreign aid’s track record</a> with fresh historical series, and <a href="https://www.global-developments.org/p/how-do-exchange-rates-work-anyway">writing crisp explainers</a> on workhorse development concepts like exchange rates that answer all the questions you were afraid to ask.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Kim’s work is approachable without being glib, and rigorous without disappearing into mathiness. It’s also of the moment, focusing on how to direct scarce dollars and political capital toward what actually improves lives. That blend of clarity and empiricism is exactly what’s needed at a time when the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/406022/usaid-foreign-aid-trump-rubio-cuts-gavi-vaccines">competition for every dollar of aid is so intense</a>. Kim’s writing is a compass you can actually steer by. —<em>Bryan Walsh</em>, <em>senior editorial director</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em><strong>Correction, November 20, 12:15 pm ET:</strong> A previous version of this post misstated Pascaline Dupas’s job title. </em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Sigal Samuel</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Kenny Torrella</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Pratik Pawar</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Is AI lying? (And other reader questions, answered.)]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/459828/ai-lying-truthful-meat-media-kidney-donations-global" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=459828</id>
			<updated>2025-09-02T16:25:15-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-08-29T08:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Animal Welfare" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Artificial Intelligence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Innovation" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Mental Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[For the last few years, we’ve been asking Future Perfect newsletter readers what their biggest questions are. And while we usually answer privately, we figured we’d try something new: a reader mailbag! This week, we’ve answered questions from three readers on classic FP issues: artificial intelligence, animal welfare coverage, and, of course, altruistic kidney donations. [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Ed Hashey color illustration of a Cheers-like bar called “Browsers,” populated by people who look like computers." data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Bradenton Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images﻿" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/08/gettyimages-168160879.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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<p class="has-text-align-none">For the last few years, we’ve been asking <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Future Perfect newsletter readers</a> what their biggest questions are. And while we usually answer privately, we figured we’d try something new: a reader mailbag! </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This week, we’ve answered questions from three readers on classic FP issues: artificial intelligence, animal welfare coverage, and, of course, altruistic kidney donations. We’d like to do more of these, so if your question wasn’t featured — or privately answered — please stay in touch for a chance to be included in the future. <br></p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This story was first featured in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Future Perfect newsletter</a>.</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">Sign up <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">here</a> to explore the big, complicated problems the world faces and the most efficient ways to solve them. Sent twice a week.</p>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">We&#8217;re also kicking off the process for our <a href="https://link.vox.com/click/41302297.56182/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudm94LmNvbS9mdXR1cmUtcGVyZmVjdC8zODY0NDkvMjAyNC1mdXR1cmUtcGVyZmVjdC01MC1wcm9ncmVzcy1haS1jbGltYXRlLWFuaW1hbC13ZWxmYXJlLWlubm92YXRpb24_dWVpZD0wYmVkYWQzYmFmM2Y0ZWQ3NzMyZjhjMGVjMjIzODkyNA/628ce78adcb8fe89e60d4544Bfeed4c7c">annual Future Perfect list of changemakers</a>. We&#8217;re looking for experts, humanitarians, activists, movers, and shakers in global health, broadly speaking.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If there is someone you want to nominate, a topic you want explained, or a question you want us to answer in the future, <a href="https://link.vox.com/click/41302297.56182/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3Jtcy5nbGUvODJNOVlHVkthc2RTVFB1NUE_dWVpZD0wYmVkYWQzYmFmM2Y0ZWQ3NzMyZjhjMGVjMjIzODkyNA/628ce78adcb8fe89e60d4544Be0acf39b"><strong>fill out this form</strong></a> or email us at futureperfect@vox.com. <em>—Izzie Ramirez, deputy editor</em></p>

<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong><em>By which methods can one ascertain that whatever is produced by AI is exact and truthful?</em></strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For any question you’re considering asking an AI model, the first thing you need to do is think about its epistemic nature: Is the answer knowable in an objective way? Or is it subjective?&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The best use case is a situation where it’s hard for you to come up with the answer, but once you get an answer from the AI, you can easily check to see if it’s correct. I find chatbots particularly helpful for semantic search — that is, cases where I say, “There’s some psychology theory or idea in philosophy that basically says, <em>XYZ, but I can’t remember what it’s called or who said it, help!</em>” The chatbot will give its best guess, and then I can just fact-check that.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/08/gettyimages-2152813969.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,2.7041717624677,100,94.591656475065" alt="A person works at a computer with an illustrative image generated by artificial intelligence on the screen, showing code from various programming languages and a neural network diagram. " title="A person works at a computer with an illustrative image generated by artificial intelligence on the screen, showing code from various programming languages and a neural network diagram. " data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="&lt;p&gt;A person works at a computer with an illustrative image generated by artificial intelligence on the screen, showing code from various programming languages and a neural network diagram.&lt;/p&gt; | Oliver Berg/picture alliance via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Oliver Berg/picture alliance via Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Same with other empirical facts that are verifiable through observation or data —&nbsp;anything from “What’s the boiling temperature for water?” to “Is it true that humans share 98.8 percent of their DNA with chimpanzees?” While you can easily verify the first by yourself through observation, you’ll need to rely on experts’ data for the second. In that case, you need to feel confident that what’s produced by your fellow humans is exact and truthful. We’ve developed tools that increase our confidence, like the scientific method, so if you’re consulting scientific experts, you can at least have some degree of confidence that they’re reporting observable and repeatable facts.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Then there are domains that are inherently subjective. If you’ve got the type of question for which there is no One True Answer,&nbsp;you’ll want to be more hesitant about using AI. I think ethical dilemmas fall into this category; no matter how much OpenAI tries to create a “<a href="https://www.theinformation.com/articles/universal-verifiers-openais-secret-weapon">universal verifier</a>,” AI will always be limited in its ability to <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/5/7/23708169/ask-ai-chatgpt-ethical-advice-moral-enhancement">advise you on how to handle an ethical dilemma</a>, because <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.05197">there’s no One True Ethics</a>. So, you might see what thoughts an AI model provokes in you, but don’t trust it as giving you the final answer, especially if what it’s saying seems off to you. In other words, you can use it as a thought partner, but don’t treat it like an oracle.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>—Sigal Samuel, senior reporter </em></p>

<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong><em>Okay, after more than five years as a vegan and 73 years on the planet, I want to know why the great majority of journalists consistently abandon everything they learned about objectivity when it comes to a multitude of issues with the monster industry known as &#8220;animal agriculture&#8221;? And I want to know how to combat that bias effectively.</em></strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong><em>It is a huge blind spot for most of them. My best guess is the conditioning is so strong. It starts as a toddler, is reinforced by the parental relationship, expands to extended family, friends, reinforced again by all types of advertising media, entertainment, etc. Then they go to journalism school and are taught by instructors who also have this blind spot.</em></strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong><em>So later a reporter will go to a &#8220;chicken farm&#8221; and empathize with them when they tell their story about losing thousands of birds to avian flu — their sense of loss is not about the birds; it&#8217;s about the money. The reporter presents the story without questioning the basics. Things like &#8220;where are all the male birds?&#8221; [and] &#8220;how is it possible for anyone to think that 35,000 birds could be forced to live together in a building without reasonable access to the outdoors?&#8221; and &#8220;why does it smell so bad?&#8221; and &#8220;why do you have permission to confine animals without their permission?&#8221;</em></strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I think the reason is pretty simple: Journalists are people with their own biases, just like everyone else. That’s evident in how little coverage factory farming receives in the first place — it involves the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24079424/factory-farming-facts-meat-usda-agriculture-census">abuse of billions of animals</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/415294/slaughterhouse-meat-workers-ptsd-mental-health">hundreds of thousands of workers</a>, and is a leading cause of many of our <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/362224/environment-groups-meat-industry-lies-global-warming-climate-change-wwf">environmental problems</a>, yet only a handful of US journalists write about it full time (including yours truly). Most news outlets and editors don’t take factory farming seriously, which is why I’m proud to work at Vox, where we do.  </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That’s the most fundamental problem. But secondarily, while there is plenty of fantastic coverage of factory farming, more often than not, I find I’m disappointed with a lot of it, too. I see a few recurring issues:</p>

<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Animal welfare is overlooked or entirely ignored. For example, it’s not uncommon for news stories about <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/371921/farm-animals-barn-fire-north-carolina-pigs-deaths">barn fires</a> that kill thousands of animals to conclude that “<a href="https://expandingcircle.substack.com/p/no-one-was-hurt">no one was hurt</a>,” or for a story about hundreds of thousands of egg-laying hens killed to slow the spread of bird flu to gloss over the <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23963820/bird-flu-surge-us-ventilation-shutdown-veterinarians">brutal nature of that killing</a>.</li>



<li>Deference to meat producers and companies, or scientists employed by or affiliated with industry, including misleading comments that go unchallenged.</li>



<li>“Agriculture” is often cited as a major source of environmental pollution, when <em>animal</em> agriculture is disproportionately responsible.</li>



<li>Uncritical stories about proposed solutions to animal agriculture’s impact on the climate, like methane-reducing feed additives or manure biodigesters. Or uncritical coverage of companies that claim to treat their animals better than the competition (see our <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/420545/fairlife-milk-animal-cruelty-dairy-coca-cola">recent story on Fairlife</a> milk).</li>
</ul>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I’ve written <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23778399/media-ignores-climate-change-beef-meat-dairy">one story</a> about how the media could cover these issues better, and I hope to keep covering that in the future.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">—<em>Kenny Torrella, senior reporter</em></p>

<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity" />

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/4/11/12716978/kidney-donation-dylan-matthews"><em><strong>Stories like Dylan Matthews&#8217;s years ago</strong></em></a><strong><em> led me to investigate donating a kidney to a stranger. I asked my doctor about it, and surprisingly, instead of encouraging me to save a life, he tried to talk me out of it.&nbsp;</em></strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong><em>He told me that it is illegal to donate a kidney to a stranger! I live in Hong Kong, and maybe the reason for prohibiting even the donation of a kidney to a stranger is the fear that people would secretly accept payment from the kidney recipient. But I don&#8217;t know why. Anyway, I thought about donating while on a vacation in the US, but it would require too much time, so I gave up.&nbsp;</em></strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong><em>Unfortunately, my second kidney will probably die with me in old age, and someone with kidney failure will needlessly die. Anyway, maybe another story idea would be about paying kidney providers in countries other than the US?</em></strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Most people aren’t as generous as you! </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the US, only a sliver of living donations go to strangers. Meanwhile, over 100,000 people sit on kidney wait-lists. And, as you indicate, the need for kidneys is a global problem, too.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Many places only allow donations to relatives or known recipients (or require tough ethics reviews for unrelated donors), while a minority — like the US, UK, Canada, and Australia — offer a formal pathway for anonymous Good Samaritan donors. In Hong Kong, where you’re based, you can donate to a family member easily, but unrelated donations need official approval, and there’s no standard program for that. (That’s probably why you were discouraged.) </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This patchwork exists for a reason.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the 1990s and 2000s, there was a serious trafficking and transplant tourism problem. In 2007, the WHO <a href="https://www.amjtransplant.org/article/S1600-6135(22)05825-7/fulltext">estimated</a> that about 5–10 percent of kidney transplants involved trafficking, and countries like the Philippines and Pakistan became hubs for foreign patients buying organs from desperate locals.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Transplant experts met in Istanbul in 2008 and wrote what became the worldwide rulebook. The <a href="https://www.declarationofistanbul.org/the-declaration">Istanbul Declaration</a> pushed countries to crack down on coercive sales of organs. Every country had its own laws, but began incorporating the declaration’s recommendations. As a result, transplant tourism dropped sharply in Israel and the Philippines once new rules kicked in, and tighter oversight became the norm across Europe. </p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/08/gettyimages-1057315336.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,5.5555555555556,100,88.888888888889" alt="The back of a red car has the sign ‘father of three needs kidney’" title="The back of a red car has the sign ‘father of three needs kidney’" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="A sign on the back of a vehicle pleading for someone to donate a kidney to a sick man in Ontario, Canada. | Creative Touch Imaging Ltd./NurPhoto via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Creative Touch Imaging Ltd./NurPhoto via Getty Images" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">But, in its efforts to shut down trafficking, the declaration argued that compensating donors at all “leads inexorably to inequity and injustice.” There was little empirical data to back that claim, but because it came from a major international statement it hardened into gospel: Organ donation must be “<a href="https://www.declarationofistanbul.org/the-declaration">financially neutral</a>.” </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But neutrality isn’t actually neutral in practice. Living donors lose wages, take time off work, take medical risk, and sometimes even face higher insurance premiums after donating. We don’t call that exploitation — but it <em>is</em> a penalty for doing the right thing.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And it’s inconsistent with how we treat other socially valuable, risky, or unpleasant work. We pay people to do jury duty. We pay clinical trial participants. In many places, we even pay plasma donors.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There is one striking exception: Iran.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s the only country with a regulated system that pays kidney donors. Iran established this system in 1988, and today <a href="https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5867571/">performs</a> about 2,500–2,700 kidney transplants annually, and it claims to have essentially eliminated its waiting list. It’s a proof-of-concept that incentives can be structured. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The US debate is inching in that direction. Congress’s End Kidney Deaths Act <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/372412/end-kidney-deaths-act-kidney-donor-tax-credit">would offer a federal tax credit</a> to people who donate a kidney to a stranger. Donors would receive a $10,000 tax credit annually for five years, so not quite direct payment, but certainly a help. The act, which has not been voted on yet, acknowledges that donation involves real costs: time off work, medical risks, recovery time.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The path forward globally isn’t throwing out Istanbul’s anti-trafficking work, but to build on it with smart incentives and guardrails so people can donate altruistically if they want to. That means actually testing new approaches, but doing it carefully. Give donors independent advocates, make sure there’s time to think it over, and guarantee lifelong follow-up care.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the meantime, you might not be able to easily donate your kidney to a stranger right now in Hong Kong, but the needle is moving in the right direction.&nbsp; </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>—Pratik Pawar, Future Perfect fellow</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Want more Future Perfect? <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Sign up for our newsletter here</a>.</strong></p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The real scandal in Formula 1 is its attitude toward women]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2024/3/8/24093296/formula-1-christian-horner-allegations-red-bull-investigation-verstappen-women" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2024/3/8/24093296/formula-1-christian-horner-allegations-red-bull-investigation-verstappen-women</id>
			<updated>2025-07-09T11:14:49-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-07-09T10:50:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Culture" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Sports" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Editor’s note, July 9, 2025, 10:45 am ET: On July 9, Red Bull&#8217;s Formula 1 team principal Christian Horner was fired. His removal followed a tough year for the team, one that saw dwindling performance, high turnover of critical engineers, staff and drivers, and rumors about the potential exit of four-time world champ Max Verstappen. [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="Christian Horner during the F1 Bahrain Grand Prix on March 2, 2024. | Peter Fox/Formula 1 via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Peter Fox/Formula 1 via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25322881/2057833902.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Christian Horner during the F1 Bahrain Grand Prix on March 2, 2024. | Peter Fox/Formula 1 via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><strong>Editor’s note, July 9, 2025, 10:45 am ET:</strong> On July 9, Red Bull&#8217;s Formula 1 team principal Christian Horner was fired. His removal followed a tough year for the team, one that saw dwindling performance, high turnover of critical engineers, staff and drivers, and rumors about the potential exit of four-time world champ Max Verstappen. As of 10:30 am, a reason hasn&#8217;t been made public, but below you&#8217;ll find an explainer — initially published on March 8, 2024 — behind last year&#8217;s allegations of sexual harassment, a scandal that may have contributed to the downfall of the once-dominant team.</em></p>

<p>The line between spectacle and sport has always been blurry. But when it comes to Formula 1 — the global motorsport with some of the fastest cars and deepest pockets — the biggest institutional players seem to forget that there’s a difference between delicious drama and&nbsp; legitimate controversy.&nbsp;</p>

<p>It’s easy to mistake the two when so much of the elite sport’s success can be attributed to <em>Drive to Survive,</em> the addictive Netflix show that explains the intimidating technicalities and stakes of F1 through the catty interpersonal drama between teammates and competitors alike. My colleague Byrd Pinkerton <a href="https://www.vox.com/22652554/drive-to-survive-f1-racing-netflix">described the show</a> in 2021 this way: “Basically, imagine the <em>Real Housewives</em>, if the housewives were driving around at 300 kilometers an hour, and if occasionally one of the housewives caught on fire.”</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What’s at stake?</h2>



<p>Prior to reporting this story, I attended several races in the last few years, bonded with an increasingly diverse fan community, and spoke with pit crew personnel at the 2023 Miami Grand Prix. Here’s what you need to know:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/2024/3/8/24093296/formula-1-christian-horner-allegations-red-bull-investigation-verstappen-women#4ccMcb">The investigation and allegations against Christian Horner, explained</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/2024/3/8/24093296/formula-1-christian-horner-allegations-red-bull-investigation-verstappen-women#amndyg">Who gets to control the narrative</a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.vox.com/2024/3/8/24093296/formula-1-christian-horner-allegations-red-bull-investigation-verstappen-women#EWLmFW">What this means for women employees and fans in motorsport</a></li>
</ul>



<p>Have questions? Email me: izzie.ramirez@voxmedia.com.</p>
</div>

<p>As a result, F1 has <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2023/11/18/23965792/formula-1-growth-race-las-vegas-strip-grand-prix-fans">experienced years of explosive growth</a>, especially in the US. More eyes has meant more races: You might have heard Las Vegas residents griping about the construction inconveniences and inaccessibility of <a href="https://jalopnik.com/i-hope-it-bankrupts-them-las-vegas-residents-enraged-a-1851009102">last November’s brand-new street race</a>. Or how Elon Musk, Shakira, and Vin Diesel rolled out to the Miami Grand Prix. There’s also the sheer stardom of the drivers: <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CtMYSOMusxS/?igsh=MTliZTFjY2ZkczVhbg%3D%3D&amp;img_index=1">thirst traps</a> of Lewis Hamilton going viral, Daniel Ricciardo gracing the <a href="https://twitter.com/FastestPitStop/status/1765356395296121173?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">cover of GQ</a>, and <a href="https://wwd.com/menswear-news/mens-fashion/formula-1-drivers-fashion-ambassadors-1235761597/">endless brand deals</a> for nearly everyone on the grid. (That’s where the 20 drivers start the race!)</p>

<p>Right now, though, a controversy might change how people see the ordinarily glitzy sport — especially the <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2023/11/18/23965792/formula-1-growth-race-las-vegas-strip-grand-prix-fans">growing female fanbase</a> F1 is all too happy to court via <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@redbullracing/video/7341747679875157280?_t=8kVlPGzP9DP&amp;_r=1">social media</a>. In 2022, approximately 40 percent of fans were <a href="https://www.thecut.com/2023/11/formula-1-racing-fangirls.html">female</a>, up 8 percent from five years ago, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/female-fans-will-fuel-formula-one-2023-2022-12-23/">according to Stefano Domenicali</a>, CEO of the Formula 1 Group.&nbsp;</p>

<p>In early February, energy drink company and team owner Red Bull launched an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/red-bull-horner-investigation-misconduct-feba6a1e9354758cfc29df6970205bfa">independent investigation</a> into its Formula 1 team principal, Christian Horner, for potential misconduct toward a team member. Red Bull did not specify the details of the nature of the alleged misconduct nor who it was against, leading to rumors. Horner, who <a href="https://us.motorsport.com/f1/news/f1-team-principals-who-are-they-and-what-do-they-do/10351168/">manages</a> team strategy and personnel, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/red-bull-horner-f1-039f99b62091d7958f13d67002ba5f0b">was cleared</a> a few days ahead of the start of the season.&nbsp;</p>

<p>A day after Red Bull dismissed the investigation, a Google Drive folder was anonymously sent to more than 100 reporters, other team principals, and members of the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA), the governing body for the sport. The folder contains nearly 80 different files, most of which are screenshots of WhatsApp messages between what is allegedly Horner and a female employee.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Vox is currently in the process of verifying the images and videos. What we can say is that the undated messages include references to intimate acts, requests to delete messages, and what appears to be a nude picture. These WhatsApp messages share space with seemingly professional communication, including about whether this person could work from home.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p>Red Bull Racing, its parent company Red Bull GmbH, and Christian Horner did not respond to Vox’s requests for comment about the validity of the messages, the nature of the investigation, anything regarding potentially firing Horner, or whether they have opened any new investigations by time of publication.</p>

<p>While controversy isn’t new to F1 — just look at the <a href="https://us.motorsport.com/f1/news/f1-cheating-spygate-crashgate/6555687/">cheating scandals</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/05/fia-breaks-silence-over-ben-sulayems-f1-race-interference-allegations">race interference</a>, or the driver who lost his seat because <a href="https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/33681873/inside-haas-how-f1-american-team-cut-ties-nikita-mazepin-oligarch-father">his Russian oligarch father was sanctioned</a> at the beginning of the war in Ukraine —&nbsp;the noise surrounding Horner should be more than fodder for a juicy season of <em>Drive to Survive. </em>It should prompt questions around how to best support the women pit crew members, engineers, assistants, and all other workers in a predominantly male sport. If F1 can’t protect its own female employees in the sport, then the efforts to create a pipeline for <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/06/f1-academy-series-revs-up-pursuit-of-female-breakthrough-in-motorsport">female drivers</a> as well as make <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/accelerator/heres-exactly-what-f1-can-do-to-improve-fan-safety-at-races">races safer for the recent influx of female fans</a> will fall flat.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Currently, <a href="https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/horner-verstappen-red-bull-f1-upheaval-changes/">much</a> of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwMfzwFLevA&amp;ab_channel=SkySportsNews">coverage</a> of the controversy is focused on whether Red Bull will be able to maintain its enormous lead in the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships, or speculation about the other person’s identity and motivations in the texts, as if this is gossip fodder about reality stars and not a workplace concern. As of Thursday morning, Red Bull had <a href="https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/68501426">reportedly suspended a woman</a> who accused Horner of inappropriate behavior. It’s not clear if she is the same person in the texts.&nbsp;And on Friday afternoon, it was reported that Red Bull adviser <a href="https://www.si.com/fannation/racing/f1briefings/news/f1-news-red-bull-advisor-admits-possible-suspension-amid-team-controversy">Helmut Marko could face suspension.</a></p>

<p>The way everything is shaking out <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/05/christian-horner-netflix-formula-one-drive-to-survive-red-bull">feels more like gossip</a>, rather than a gut check to see if the sport’s institutions are capable of questioning breaches of power. From the FIA to the individual teams and their owners, the sport has proven <a href="https://jalopnik.com/former-aston-martin-f1-employee-reveals-racist-homopho-1849184179">time</a> and <a href="https://www.si.com/fannation/racing/f1briefings/news/f1-news-recent-study-reveals-racism-is-still-a-prominent-issue-in-sport-lm22">time again</a> that they hide behind claims that everything should “<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/f1s-christian-horner-says-time-to-draw-a-line-on-claims-of-inappropriate-behaviour-13089282">just be about the racing</a>,” rather than having to concern themselves with the people who make it possible. How Formula 1 decides to move from here will determine if their efforts to support women employees and its fans have any merit.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The investigation and allegations against Christian Horner, explained</h2>

<p>Most Formula 1 fans would say the sport is <a href="https://jalopnik.com/formula-1-is-boring-because-the-teams-got-too-good-at-b-1851305372">pretty boring at the moment</a>: Red Bull driver Max Verstappen, predictably, <a href="https://www.espn.com/racing/driver/stats/_/id/4665/max-verstappen">will take first position in most races</a>. He’s in a league of his own. The engineers and leadership at Red Bull Racing guarantee that.</p>

<p>When you’re constantly crushing the competition, others try to find ways to take you down. There are several instances documented in <em>Drive to Survive </em>of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MlEj8qniqg&amp;ab_channel=RezChi">petty reports to the FIA</a>. So when <a href="https://us.motorsport.com/f1/news/red-bull-horner-allegations-investigation/10572595/">Red Bull announced</a><a href="https://apnews.com/article/red-bull-horner-investigation-misconduct-feba6a1e9354758cfc29df6970205bfa"> </a>on February 5 that it would be looking into “certain allegations” made against team principal Christian Horner, it was hard to pin down whether this was an external attempt to get him fired for competition’s sake or if there was veracity to the claims of misconduct. Red Bull’s intentionally vague <a href="https://apnews.com/article/red-bull-horner-investigation-misconduct-feba6a1e9354758cfc29df6970205bfa">statement to the media</a> ushered in rumors about “<a href="https://motorsportswire.usatoday.com/2024/02/05/red-bull-team-principal-christian-horner-under-investigation-for-misconduct/">aggressive management</a>.” Of what kind? The company never explicitly said. And it still won’t.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“One of the biggest quotes from <em>Drive to Survive</em> is [motorsport commentator] Will Buxton always saying ‘In F1, when there’s smoke, there’s usually fire,’” said Kate Byrne, one of the founders of the fan community <a href="https://twogirls1formula.com/pages/about-us">Two Girls 1 Formula</a>. She explains that such internal matters rarely bubble up to the public, but she feels Red Bull weighing in was a red flag, saying it’s possible they wanted to “get in front of it by saying something. Red Bull will never do that on their own.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Red Bull’s outside lawyer, who they refuse to publicly name, <a href="https://us.motorsport.com/f1/news/f1-team-boss-horner-cleared-wrongdoing-red-bull-investigation/10580796/">cleared Horner of any wrongdoing on February 28</a> — just ahead of the first Grand Prix of the season in Bahrain. “Red Bull is confident that the investigation has been fair, rigorous, and impartial,” Red Bull’s parent company <a href="https://apnews.com/article/red-bull-horner-f1-039f99b62091d7958f13d67002ba5f0b">said in another statement</a>. “The investigation report is confidential and contains the private information of the parties and third parties who assisted in the investigation, and therefore we will not be commenting further out of respect for all concerned.”</p>

<p>Additionally, <a href="https://jalopnik.com/red-bull-was-ready-to-fire-christian-horner-but-he-thr-1851304858">according to some reports</a>, Red Bull was preparing to fire Horner as early as February 2 — three days before the investigation announcement&nbsp;—&nbsp;but he had allegedly insisted on arbitration. Horner has not made any statements regarding potentially being fired, and during this week’s press conference, he declined to give any more specifics.</p>

<p>“My wife has been phenomenally supportive, as has my family, but the intrusion on my family is now enough,” <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/f1s-christian-horner-says-time-to-draw-a-line-on-claims-of-inappropriate-behaviour-13089282">Horner said during a press conference Thursday</a> in Saudi Arabia. “It is time now to focus on why we are here, which is to go Formula 1 racing.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Who gets to control the narrative?</h2>

<p>Horner’s career will likely be unaffected, given the <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13158419/Christian-Horner-Jos-Verstappen-snubbed-birthday-party-sexting-scandal-Red-Bull-boss.html">portrayal of this investigation as simply a scandal</a> rather than a potential workplace misconduct issue. F1 and Red Bull are certainly ensuring that Horner is able to do “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/sports/formula1/horner-declares-business-normal-despite-allegations-2024-02-15/#:~:text=MILTON%20KEYNES%2C%20England%2C%20Feb%2015,2024%20car%20launch%20on%20Thursday.">business as normal</a>.” So naturally, all eyes were on Red Bull’s two drivers, Max Verstappen and Checo Perez, to scope out their performance last weekend. There were concerns, some raised by Max’s father Jos, who is a former racer, that things at<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2024/3/3/christian-horner-f1-team-red-bull-max-verstappen"> Red Bull might “explode”</a> if nothing is done. If it’s true that tensions were rising within the team, it would be evident in the first race, no?&nbsp;</p>

<p>As if. Verstappen led the race by a wide margin of about 20 seconds between him and his teammate. Simply put, he was coasting, taking his monster of a car for a joy ride, while no competitors even came close. It was like watching Simone Biles on a playground. After Verstappen snagged first place, Horner was right in front of the podium with his wife, former <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/formulaone/article-13164159/Geri-Halliwell-paraded-F1-paddock-Christian-Horner-farce-outspoken-driver-pundit-Christijan-Albers.html">Spice Girl Gerri Halliwell</a>, and the heir of the Red Bull fortune, Chalerm Yoovidhya. “Better to do your talking on the track,” <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/toto-wolff-calls-fia-f1-201538508.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJpA0LeXPMu9NVxRaNBN_CNr56Xdhhoms_aZ6jPU2apgVCUcyk1Efa1OjKHvxocdiIsMl8NQK6aivUsP8Wm0UYlRO4ZptnNsmi5a5DP8RhmQKwI83RYrp3GwOI0grKJxHNsBw83meiCPVB4c100m8MLCTp3TIiWJUuhRuJWjsxDf">Horner said after the race</a>.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25322883/2053347620.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Standing in a crowd, three people laugh and smile, mid-conversation." title="Standing in a crowd, three people laugh and smile, mid-conversation." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="F1 Red Bull team principal Christian Horner (center) with his wife Geri Halliwell and Red Bull co-owner Chalerm Yoovidhya at the 2024 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix in March. | Clive Rose/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Clive Rose/Getty Images" />
<p>Focus on the continued dominance of the Red Bull team misses the point, however. Verstappen will continue to perform just fine <a href="https://www.planetf1.com/news/max-verstappen-speculation-mercedes-switch-george-russell">regardless of tensions</a>, but there are <a href="https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/31038834/the-women-power-formula-one-engineers-mechanics-directors-their-role-changing-man-world">hundreds of women</a> who work for F1 teams who, because of F1’s general mishandling of this whole situation, are being tacitly told that their experiences and safety within the sport don’t matter. If they speak up, they may be ridiculed —&nbsp;all because of the obsessive focus on winning races and ratings.</p>

<p>And yet, the FIA and Red Bull have made no statements or promises about how they’re going to support women (and nonbinary and trans) workers in light of the conversation around Horner. Even the <em>whispers </em>of such behavior should launch wider investigations across teams, set up a stronger whistleblower policy, and add more concrete consequences for senior leadership who do end up embarking on romantic relationships with employees without clearing it with the appropriate bodies. The FIA has not responded to a request for comment on whether they have started an investigation into Horner and Red Bull by the time of this publication.</p>

<p>But given how each F1 team has its own CEO and operates in several different countries, internal protocols and processes vary, according to Nicole Sievers, co-founder of <a href="https://twogirls1formula.com/pages/about-us">Two Girls 1 Formula. </a></p>

<p>“In a sport that’s so heavily male dominated, there are also likely pressures on women that are working for these teams,” Sievers said. “That’s a really tough position to be in, especially when you do see kind of the overwhelming majority of the ruling class of F1. We’ve seen that play out historically. Money just breeds power, which breeds a loss of a feeling of consequence.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>On top of that, so much of the makeup of the current media pool skews a certain way: older, male, white. This old guard has&nbsp;been covering F1 for a very long time. Coverage around sexism, racism, and other types of discrimination may not be top of mind.</p>

<p>Strict rules on F1 coverage don’t help. Typically in American sports, getting press accreditation is fairly routine, but with F1, there are <a href="https://www.fia.com/media-center/media_accreditation/Formula%20One%20World%20Championship">very strict rules</a> for who is eligible and what you can produce, from prohibiting moving images to not providing credentials to websites that don’t meet certain traffic figures on their F1 coverage, with relatively small-scale offenses resulting in extended bans.</p>

<p>When there’s such a tight leash on reporters, asking hard questions with an eye for accountability becomes difficult. As Lily Herman, author of the F1 culture newsletter <a href="https://www.enginefailuref1.com/">Engine Failure</a>, explains, “There are all these fears that exist in F1 around, ‘Hey, if I speak up, I’m going to get my media access revoked or my entire media organization will if I do something wrong.’”</p>

<p>A perfect case study of this dynamic can be seen with Road &amp; Track’s <a href="https://defector.com/road-track-eic-tries-to-explain-why-he-deleted-an-article-about-formula-1-power-dynamics">editor-in-chief Daniel Pund taking down</a> a critical piece by Kate Wagner analyzing the opulence of Formula 1 because he felt it was the “wrong story” for the publication. The <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20240301170542/https://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a46975496/behind-f1-velvet-curtain/">story itself</a> was entertaining, but not necessarily news-breaking, and the removal <a href="https://www.todayintabs.com/p/road-and-track-scandal">raised questions</a> about whether the FIA reached out (according to Pund, they haven’t).</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What does this mean for women in motorsport</h2>

<p>How this story ultimately unfolds will demonstrate if F1 <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2023/11/18/23965792/formula-1-growth-race-las-vegas-strip-grand-prix-fans">understands its changing fanbase</a> and what it takes to make its employees feel supported, and whether it can get with the times.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“As someone who loves the sport, it’s definitely disappointing to see what’s going on right now,” <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/C4Lq2HpLatP/?igsh=bGY1bmwwbXM3ZzIx">said Lewis Hamilton</a>, Mercedes driver and seven-time world champion, during media day for this weekend’s race in Saudi Arabia. “It doesn’t look good to the outside world. It doesn’t look good from the inside either. It’s a really pivotal moment for the sport, in terms of what we project to the world and how it’s handled.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>By sweeping such allegations under the rug, Red Bull may hope the various dramas of the sport will cause the news to die out. That’s wrong. If anything, F1’s growing female fanbase is hungry for accountability.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We need to firmly stake our chair to the ground at the table and say: ‘We’re not leaving and we’re going to force you to be better,’” Byrne said. To her, what employees face mirrors the experiences of fans. You can’t improve one without the other, and turning off the sport won’t help, she added. “The only way you can do that is not by stopping, but by continuing to go on and being louder about it.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>And we’ve seen fans demand equal pay for female workers, <a href="https://jalopnik.com/harassment-at-the-formula-1-austrian-grand-prix-isnt-ne-1849162403">safety protections for all fans regardless of gender identity at races</a>, and increasing opportunities for <a href="https://www.f1academy.com/">female drivers through F1 Academy</a>. The sport, of course, made promises that it will do better in these avenues. Talk is just talk though, if there aren’t actions to back it up when the stakes have never been higher. (F1 Academy, for instance, was <a href="https://www.si.com/fannation/racing/f1briefings/news/fia-under-fire-after-f1-academy-fails-to-be-broadcasted-extremely-disappointing-lm22">criticized for not being broadcasted</a> during its debut in 2023.)</p>

<p>“I always question very openly what exactly the point of all of this is,” Herman said, “It’s great that women are getting opportunities like F1 Academy. But we should always kind of question what exactly those opportunities are, what they do, and who they don’t extend to. What’s just kind of lip service being paid in the moment of crisis?”</p>

<p>At the end of the day, we’re talking about people’s lives, not just some reality TV show. When winning is prioritized over well-being, we all lose.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em><strong>Update, July 9, 2025:</strong> This story, initially published March 8, 2024, has been updated at the top with news of Horner’s firing from the Red Bull team.</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[How switching to a flip phone deepened my friendships]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/413657/iphone-detox-flip-phone-friendships" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=413657</id>
			<updated>2025-05-21T09:16:13-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-05-21T08:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[On April Fools’ Day, I called my mom. I told her that for a month, I was “going flip phone”&#160;— meaning, abandoning my iPhone for one with no access to social media apps. And no, it wasn’t a joke.&#160; My discontent with my screen time reached new peaks in late March after a stint in [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="A bright pink-toned photo of Izzie Ramirez smiling while holding her HMD Barbie phone to her ear. Various star bursts, butterflies and hearts surround her." data-caption="Me with my iconic HMD Barbie phone. Hi, Barbie!" data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/05/Vox_BarbiePhone_04.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Me with my iconic HMD Barbie phone. Hi, Barbie!	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">On April Fools’ Day, I called my mom. I told her that for a month, I was “going flip phone”&nbsp;— meaning, abandoning my iPhone for one with no access to social media apps. And no, it wasn’t a joke.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">My discontent with my screen time reached new peaks in late March after a stint in physical therapy and a string of near-constant rainy days.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But first, some context: I stare at screens all day for a living, and I’m no stranger to life affixed to a computer, palm-sized or not. I grew up in the 2000s, playing Neopets and the Sims 2. I later inherited my mom’s busted iPhone 3GS in 2011 as an eighth-grader, and said goodbye to my <a href="https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/lotus-lx600">LG Lotus flip phone</a>. I’ve been on Instagram since within a year of its launch.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/05/download.jpeg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Meme that says tired of lookin gat a bad screen? Can’t wait to get home to look at a good screen" title="Meme that says tired of lookin gat a bad screen? Can’t wait to get home to look at a good screen" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">For more than a decade, I lived by the idea of “good screen” and “bad screen.” That is, bad screen is work/school-related, and good screen is just for the vibes, like spending an hour or so in a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiki_rabbit_hole">Wikipedia rabbit hole</a>. Good screen felt like a reclamation of my own time.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Until it didn’t.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Turns out, good screen is actually a farce. We didn’t know it at the time in the 2010s, but increased use of smartphones and social media <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/jonathan-haidt-wants-you-to-take-away-your-kids-phone">was probably bad for my then-developing brain</a>. According to an <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db513.htm">October 2024 CDC report,</a> the percentage of teenagers who had symptoms of anxiety or depression was higher among those with four hours or more of daily screen time.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/05/db513-fig4.gif?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A bar chart showing higher anxiety and depression symptoms in people with more screen time." title="A bar chart showing higher anxiety and depression symptoms in people with more screen time." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Centers for Disease Control and Prevention" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">For me, the decision came about because I realized that my phone was getting in the way of doing literally anything else. Like going to a coffee shop with a friend. Or playing evening soccer and getting a drink after. Or hosting dinner parties. If there’s one thing I’ve learned while working here alongside <a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/allie-volpe">Even Better’s Allie Volpe</a>, the key to a good life is to get some sun early in the day, do regular movement, and socialize often.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So “dumbphone” it was.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Going Barbie phone</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The rules, my boss said, were simple. I had a $100 budget. (Him: “I mean, it goddamn better be under $100. It won&#8217;t do anything.”) And I had to go the whole way. That meant I couldn’t switch back and forth between phones. The only exception was using my iPhone for two-factor authentication apps.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I wonder if you&#8217;ll have any friends left over by the end,” my boss, editorial director Bryan Walsh, slacked me. “Or maybe more because you&#8217;ll call them up on your telephone. Maybe you&#8217;ll get new friends, better ones.”&nbsp;</p>

<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This story was first featured in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Future Perfect newsletter</a>.</h2>



<p class="has-text-align-none">Sign up <a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">here</a> to explore the big, complicated problems the world faces and the most efficient ways to solve them. Sent twice a week.</p>
</div>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The strict budget ruled out fancy but still internet-free dumbphones like <a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/406829/light-phone-iphone-screen-time-kids">the Light Phone my colleague Adam Clark Estes tried out last month</a>. So I first turned to older flip phones.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">My partner’s parents had an old Motorola Razr chilling in a drawer, and I had always wanted one when I was a kid (or a <a href="https://www.cnet.com/pictures/t-mobile-sidekick-retrospective-photos/">T-Mobile Sidekick</a> or <a href="https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/chocolate-kg800">LG Chocolate</a>). But after hours of trying to figure out if the phone was compatible with my carrier, I learned that the infrastructure in the US for 2G connection <a href="https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/t-mobile-kicks-off-2g-shutdown-in-us/">was shut down this year</a>. I couldn’t use anything that wasn’t at least 4G. I effectively <em>had</em> to get a new phone.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Naturally, I stalked the internet’s best resource for <a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/23962999/best-product-reviews-shopping-reddit">financial decision-making: Reddit</a>. I checked out tons of posts on <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/dumbphones/">r/dumbphones</a>, and finally decided to go for the (at the time) $90 <a href="https://www.amazon.com/HMD-Unlocked-Compatible-Carriers-Version/dp/B0DG6V6V39">HMD Barbie Phone</a>. It had maps, texts, and a camera — but no app store. It technically does have internet, but it is so impossible to use that it might as well not be there.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Social butterfly?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">When my friends heard about my little experiment, they were worried, thrilled, partially envious, and wondering how on earth we would plan our Formula 1 race weekend watch parties.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I didn’t set any intentional goal of how often to reach out to people or make plans. But in the absence of mindlessly scrolling on Instagram or TikTok, I was motivated to reach out to people.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Still, my texts were very stilted because of the numeric keypad. Some of my friends were annoyed about this within a week. One texted me to ask about my thoughts on tariffs, and I replied, “Hmm hard 2 say.” A few hours later, she texted me with some personal news that warranted a swift phone call. “I can feel yourself restraining your thoughts in your texts! But it’s nice to just hear your voice right now,” she said in that call. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This friend lives in a different city, so I don’t get to see her as often. But because we weren’t seeing what the other was up to on Instagram, we called each other a lot more often than we usually would have.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Speaking of Instagram…what a double-edged sword! It’s either a black hole of endless, pointless scrolling or it’s how you find out about the latest party, book release event, or restaurant opening. I definitely missed out on a lot of potential hangs by not being on IG, but at the same time, would I have actually spontaneously gone to any of them? I’m not so sure.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I did cheat a bit by opting to text friends via my personal computer whenever I had the chance to. This also let me participate in some group chats since the Barbie phone doesn’t have that capability.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And I called my mom way more. That’s saying something because I talk to both of my parents essentially every other day with my normal phone. I flew to see my dad in Tennessee and visited my partner’s parents in Westchester for Easter. I even planned an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYAONSDnMrc">intergenerational</a> return with my grandparents to Puerto Rico for May.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Life after dumbphone</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">All in all, I about doubled the number of in-person hangs, although my memory is a bit fuzzy. I’m someone <a href="https://www.vox.com/even-better/408429/friendship-scheduling-months-advance">who lives and dies by my Google Calendar</a>, and I wasn’t great at version control between my physical planner and the g-cal. And I don’t have many photo reminders of what I did.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">However, I did not last an entire month.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I fell two days short, thanks to that sporadic trip to Puerto Rico. I had to order Ubers, consult spreadsheets, figure out access codes, find restaurants that everyone actually wanted to eat at, and keep in touch with people we were hanging out with. If you’re a caretaker or if your work demands that you be online 24/7, I’m not sure if a smartphone detox is right for you.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And honestly, there were some things I missed from my regular iPhone. Having no music during runs made me dread jogging, so I didn’t run for an entire month. I couldn’t scan QR code menus at restaurants. If I didn’t have directions written down somewhere, I was <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzksORmticI">constantly anxious about getting lost</a> since Google Maps on the Barbie phone wasn’t all that. I also took fewer photos. (Sorry, Bad Bunny, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9T_MGfzq7I">I know I should take more</a>.)&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Still, my life felt more full because of the burst of spontaneity encouraging deeper connections with my friends and family. <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/403100/ai-brain-effects-technology-phones">My attention span</a> also no longer seemed like it’s the size of a small pea. And while I didn’t start this experiment out of concern for my mental health, it did help me feel more socially connected, something that puts people at <a href="https://www.vox.com/even-better/366620/loneliness-epidemic-coping-demographics-america-social-connection-mental-health">less risk for depression</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I’m now much more deliberate in valuing off-the-cuff hangs. Just last week, I went to a bar to watch the Knicks game, and called a friend who I haven’t seen in a few months. And yes, it was on the Barbie phone.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>A version of this story originally appeared in the Future Perfect newsletter.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/pages/future-perfect-newsletter-signup">Sign up here!</a></em></p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Izzie Ramirez</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[How beef colonized the Americas]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/380708/cattle-ranching-beef-colonialism-history" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=380708</id>
			<updated>2025-03-03T15:23:07-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-03-03T15:22:54-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Animal Welfare" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Culture" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Food" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="The Future of Meat" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[I edit stories on factory farming for a living. Yet it took me a while to disenfranchise myself from the cultural pull beef held in my life — as a Texan, as a daughter of a cattle rancher, as a Latina. I had a fear, for years, that if I let go of beef, I [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="An illustration of a young woman carrying dishes from a green, cow- and cowboy-filled landscape into a cityscape." data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="﻿Daniela Jordan-Villaveces for Vox" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_Lead_bbe964.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
		</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">I edit stories on factory farming for a living. Yet it took me a while to disenfranchise myself from the cultural pull beef held in my life — as a Texan, as a daughter of a cattle rancher, as a Latina. I had a fear, for years, that if I let go of beef, I would be forsaking my own identity. I couldn’t be more wrong. <br><br>This illustrated comic below — which tackles the romanticization of cowboys and vaqueros, and my redefinition of connecting with Indigenous foods — is the sixth in a series of stories on how factory farming has shaped the US. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>Find the rest of the series and future installments <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/394801/how-factory-farming-built-america-meat-dairy-industry-influence">here</a>, and visit Vox’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Future Perfect</a> section for more coverage of Big Ag. The stories in this series are supported by <a href="https://animalcharityevaluators.org/">Animal Charity Evaluators</a>, which received a grant from Builders Initiative.</em><br></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_1_ffd5a9.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A young woman standing on a Tokyo train. Text reads: “The funny thing about traveling is that, without fail, I am reminded of how utterly, tragically, and perhaps beautifully American I am.

Last December, I took a spontaneous flight to Tokyo and found myself wandering with no particular destination in mind.“" title="A young woman standing on a Tokyo train. Text reads: “The funny thing about traveling is that, without fail, I am reminded of how utterly, tragically, and perhaps beautifully American I am.

Last December, I took a spontaneous flight to Tokyo and found myself wandering with no particular destination in mind.“" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_2_83fabb.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A young couple asks the same young woman a series of questions. Text reads: “Oh, you live in New York? Is Times Square like Shibuya?” and “I can tell you’re American — you smile a lot.”

But what surprised me the most was how often people asked me about meat, as if pulled in by the gravity of Americana. “Do you like hamburgers?” (No.) “What do you think about wagyu beef here?” (Haven’t had it yet.) “Is steak really worth getting if I come to the States?” (Depends, but I think barbecue is way better.) 

I couldn’t blame them. To eat beef is to be American in the broadest sense of the word." title="A young couple asks the same young woman a series of questions. Text reads: “Oh, you live in New York? Is Times Square like Shibuya?” and “I can tell you’re American — you smile a lot.”

But what surprised me the most was how often people asked me about meat, as if pulled in by the gravity of Americana. “Do you like hamburgers?” (No.) “What do you think about wagyu beef here?” (Haven’t had it yet.) “Is steak really worth getting if I come to the States?” (Depends, but I think barbecue is way better.) 

I couldn’t blame them. To eat beef is to be American in the broadest sense of the word." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_3_c478b7.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A hand holds a phone, which reads “Where are you going now?” Other story text reads: My relationship with beef is a tense one. 

While it’s not my favorite meat in the world — fresh fish is right there! — the cultural weight beef commanded in my life was undeniable, embedded in my identity as a Mexican-Puerto Rican who grew up in Texas. Who am I without brisket, caldo de res, or picadillo?

For a long time, I feared missing out on some grand, deeper connection that I’d gain at the family table.
So I spent years defending the consumption of it — despite what I knew about cattle ranching’s negative impacts on the climate. Would I be a bad daughter if I rejected beef completely?" title="A hand holds a phone, which reads “Where are you going now?” Other story text reads: My relationship with beef is a tense one. 

While it’s not my favorite meat in the world — fresh fish is right there! — the cultural weight beef commanded in my life was undeniable, embedded in my identity as a Mexican-Puerto Rican who grew up in Texas. Who am I without brisket, caldo de res, or picadillo?

For a long time, I feared missing out on some grand, deeper connection that I’d gain at the family table.
So I spent years defending the consumption of it — despite what I knew about cattle ranching’s negative impacts on the climate. Would I be a bad daughter if I rejected beef completely?" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_4_85fe62.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A Tokyo scene transitions into a rural cattle farm, seen through a train window. Text reads: My father left his family&#039;s farm in Mexico decades ago in pursuit of the American dream, spending early mornings toiling under the sun to build homes and apartment buildings. He used to joke that he was a &quot;city guy&quot; when taking me window shopping over the weekends.

But in the last few years, he became committed to the idea of returning to his roots through cattle ranching — a chance to build the kind of generational wealth he never had access to as a kid. Influenced by a father figure who mentored him in Tennessee, he bought himself a farm and a few cows. My dad left his family farm all that time ago and swore he&#039;d never return, but it called to him. It calls to me, too." title="A Tokyo scene transitions into a rural cattle farm, seen through a train window. Text reads: My father left his family&#039;s farm in Mexico decades ago in pursuit of the American dream, spending early mornings toiling under the sun to build homes and apartment buildings. He used to joke that he was a &quot;city guy&quot; when taking me window shopping over the weekends.

But in the last few years, he became committed to the idea of returning to his roots through cattle ranching — a chance to build the kind of generational wealth he never had access to as a kid. Influenced by a father figure who mentored him in Tennessee, he bought himself a farm and a few cows. My dad left his family farm all that time ago and swore he&#039;d never return, but it called to him. It calls to me, too." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_5_24b973.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustrated path through a cattle farm surrounded by greenery. Text reads: I first visited his farm outside of Nashville in the summer of 2018, when I was in college. My parents had recently divorced, and my dad’s new lifestyle felt so foreign to me. 

Over time, the crunch of the grass, muddy rides in the buggy, and the buzz of cicadas enveloped me. This was home now.

The cows, though, were what most drew me in — especially the babies. Whenever I wanted to escape for some quiet, I’d cross the fence behind the ranch, walking toward the cows carefully. They met my eyes and I found comfort in their company.

I worried about becoming too close. These cows were destined for slaughter. I couldn’t get attached. But maybe we could give them a good life here, where they had open space to run. I could live with that." title="An illustrated path through a cattle farm surrounded by greenery. Text reads: I first visited his farm outside of Nashville in the summer of 2018, when I was in college. My parents had recently divorced, and my dad’s new lifestyle felt so foreign to me. 

Over time, the crunch of the grass, muddy rides in the buggy, and the buzz of cicadas enveloped me. This was home now.

The cows, though, were what most drew me in — especially the babies. Whenever I wanted to escape for some quiet, I’d cross the fence behind the ranch, walking toward the cows carefully. They met my eyes and I found comfort in their company.

I worried about becoming too close. These cows were destined for slaughter. I couldn’t get attached. But maybe we could give them a good life here, where they had open space to run. I could live with that." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_6_53fd23.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustrated barbecue scene with young friends gathering under a pergola next to a red barn labeled “Rancho.” Text reads: My relationship with my dad never brought me as much joy as it did then. For the majority of my life, I’d always seen him as reserved and distant, like we would never truly get to understand each other.

But then there would be those late summer afternoons on the ranch, where he’d flash a smile and break out a little jig while grilling. I didn’t know he even knew how to cook, but there he was, searing carne asada for his friends.

And I loved it." title="An illustrated barbecue scene with young friends gathering under a pergola next to a red barn labeled “Rancho.” Text reads: My relationship with my dad never brought me as much joy as it did then. For the majority of my life, I’d always seen him as reserved and distant, like we would never truly get to understand each other.

But then there would be those late summer afternoons on the ranch, where he’d flash a smile and break out a little jig while grilling. I didn’t know he even knew how to cook, but there he was, searing carne asada for his friends.

And I loved it." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_7_ffc92d.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustrated plate of carne asada tacos being held by a hand with bright pink nail polish. Text reads: Through something as simple as a carne asada taco, I held centuries of cultural practice in my palm. The thin slices of meat adorned with finely diced onions and a splash of bright, spicy salsa intoxicated me.

Here, watching the laughter radiate from the party, I could see why beef holds such strong cultural power." title="An illustrated plate of carne asada tacos being held by a hand with bright pink nail polish. Text reads: Through something as simple as a carne asada taco, I held centuries of cultural practice in my palm. The thin slices of meat adorned with finely diced onions and a splash of bright, spicy salsa intoxicated me.

Here, watching the laughter radiate from the party, I could see why beef holds such strong cultural power." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_8_c39c85.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of two men in nature cooking meat over fire pits. Text reads: For the somber price of a creature’s life, communities around the world can partake in arguably the only ritual that matters: quashing hunger. In turn, everyone gets to eat and partake in the revelry. 

Eating and socializing together is one of our most ancient human pleasures — together, these actions flood the senses, ignite deep neural pathways, and create an archive of tangible memory every time a dish is recreated." title="An illustration of two men in nature cooking meat over fire pits. Text reads: For the somber price of a creature’s life, communities around the world can partake in arguably the only ritual that matters: quashing hunger. In turn, everyone gets to eat and partake in the revelry. 

Eating and socializing together is one of our most ancient human pleasures — together, these actions flood the senses, ignite deep neural pathways, and create an archive of tangible memory every time a dish is recreated." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_9_2e90ca.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of a gaucho and a vaquero riding horses while using lassos. Text reads: In the Latin American context, so much of national and cultural identity is tied to cattle ranching and horse husbandry. Throughout the 19th century, as many countries fought and gained independence from Spain and Portugal, young Latin American governments ached for mythmaking — something to tie disparate racial groups together.

The iconography of vaqueros and gauchos, or nomadic livestock herders that emerged in the 16th century throughout the Americas, became an easy shorthand for burgeoning national identity. Through adventure, ruggedness, and some damn good food, these cattle-stewarding legends cemented a culture that was uniquely pan-American long before the founding of modern nation-states such as Mexico, Bolivia, or Argentina." title="An illustration of a gaucho and a vaquero riding horses while using lassos. Text reads: In the Latin American context, so much of national and cultural identity is tied to cattle ranching and horse husbandry. Throughout the 19th century, as many countries fought and gained independence from Spain and Portugal, young Latin American governments ached for mythmaking — something to tie disparate racial groups together.

The iconography of vaqueros and gauchos, or nomadic livestock herders that emerged in the 16th century throughout the Americas, became an easy shorthand for burgeoning national identity. Through adventure, ruggedness, and some damn good food, these cattle-stewarding legends cemented a culture that was uniquely pan-American long before the founding of modern nation-states such as Mexico, Bolivia, or Argentina." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_10_c367ef.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of a man with a covered wagon in an expanse of green hills. Text reads: Here in the US, we know vaqueros by a different name: cowboys.

Cowboys have become synonymous with exploring the American frontier, “taming” the Wild West.

They also remain iconic: rough, ready, stylish in a way that holds an indelible presence in how we dress, talk, farm, and eat today.

Americans are supposed to love beef, just as we love our land, our music, our people." title="An illustration of a man with a covered wagon in an expanse of green hills. Text reads: Here in the US, we know vaqueros by a different name: cowboys.

Cowboys have become synonymous with exploring the American frontier, “taming” the Wild West.

They also remain iconic: rough, ready, stylish in a way that holds an indelible presence in how we dress, talk, farm, and eat today.

Americans are supposed to love beef, just as we love our land, our music, our people." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/FINAL-1.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of a field of tree stumps with green hills in the distance. Text reads: The macho, enterprising spirit of vaqueros and cowboys represented national aspirations common to cultures around the world — a determination to conquer the natural world and to “make it.” To work with cattle meant to have power and to pass down wealth. And if beef for most people was once a delicacy only reserved for the weekends, these cattle herders ensured that, one day, everyone could have that luxury. 

“Food is often seen as standing for something else — that is, as a symbol,” wrote folklore and food scholar Lucy M. Long in 2019. “It can represent a variety of things: identity, place, status, power, lifestyle, worldview, values, ideas, relationships.”

Spreading cattle ranching across the Americas depended on irrevocably changing the landscape, replacing native ecosystems with land-intensive ranches. Landowners and their cattle herders eyed the forests and jungles, finding valuable land ripe for the taking." title="An illustration of a field of tree stumps with green hills in the distance. Text reads: The macho, enterprising spirit of vaqueros and cowboys represented national aspirations common to cultures around the world — a determination to conquer the natural world and to “make it.” To work with cattle meant to have power and to pass down wealth. And if beef for most people was once a delicacy only reserved for the weekends, these cattle herders ensured that, one day, everyone could have that luxury. 

“Food is often seen as standing for something else — that is, as a symbol,” wrote folklore and food scholar Lucy M. Long in 2019. “It can represent a variety of things: identity, place, status, power, lifestyle, worldview, values, ideas, relationships.”

Spreading cattle ranching across the Americas depended on irrevocably changing the landscape, replacing native ecosystems with land-intensive ranches. Landowners and their cattle herders eyed the forests and jungles, finding valuable land ripe for the taking." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_12_fd6ea3.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of a young woman reading a book while sitting on a blanket in Central Park with New York City buildings in the background. Text reads: When I left Texas to start college, right around the time my dad started ranching, I gravitated toward learning more about Indigenous cultures — a part of my heritage that I, like many Latinos, lost touch with through generations of assimilation. I wanted a deeper connection with my Southern and Latin American heritage." title="An illustration of a young woman reading a book while sitting on a blanket in Central Park with New York City buildings in the background. Text reads: When I left Texas to start college, right around the time my dad started ranching, I gravitated toward learning more about Indigenous cultures — a part of my heritage that I, like many Latinos, lost touch with through generations of assimilation. I wanted a deeper connection with my Southern and Latin American heritage." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_13_3b30a3.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of pigs and cows walking from a Spanish boat onto a beach shore. Text reads: Before European colonialism, beef had never been part of Indigenous foodways. In the late 1400s, it was the Spanish who brought cattle to the Americas alongside their better-known exports: Catholicism, smallpox, and slavery.

To what is now Latin America, the Spanish also brought the hacienda system — large land holdings meant to be used for raising cattle and pigs, where Peninsular vaqueros worked for their patrón." title="An illustration of pigs and cows walking from a Spanish boat onto a beach shore. Text reads: Before European colonialism, beef had never been part of Indigenous foodways. In the late 1400s, it was the Spanish who brought cattle to the Americas alongside their better-known exports: Catholicism, smallpox, and slavery.

To what is now Latin America, the Spanish also brought the hacienda system — large land holdings meant to be used for raising cattle and pigs, where Peninsular vaqueros worked for their patrón." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_14_3c37ed.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of bison laying bloodied within a rocky grassy landscape. Text reads: To do this, the Spanish conquistadores needed lots of land. So they took it. Over the course of 400 years, they kneecapped Indigenous food systems and with them, entire populations, cementing a culture of cattle in their place. What better way to silence a people than to replace the way they connect to one another?

In the US, especially right after the Civil War, Anglo settlers pursued the dream of Manifest Destiny. Reconstruction wasn’t just for the renegade South, but the West, which they saw as lawless. As cattle ranching spread to Texas and other parts of the American West, the identity of vaqueros did too: cowboys were no longer about the nomadic, estate-to-estate lifestyle. They wanted ranches of their own.

“There&#039;s a long-running sense in American culture, and I bet in lots of places, about the farmer or the rancher as having a kind of independence that someone who merely works for a wage doesn&#039;t have,” Joshua Specht, author of Red Meat Republic: A Hoof-to-Table History of How Beef Changed America, told me. “That’s scary, but it&#039;s liberating too, that you&#039;re out there on your own, you&#039;re making your own destiny, you&#039;re not relying on someone for a paycheck.” 

That so-called liberation came with a heavy price. The 1862 Homestead Act transformed land ownership in the American West, giving US citizens the right to claim and farm on parcels of land — Indigenous land. Native Americans in the 18th and 19th centuries endured scorched-earth tactics intended to destroy their access to food and land. Across the Great Plains, the US military facilitated the extermination of tens of millions of wild bison, part of an intentional policy to destroy Indigenous people’s means of survival and force them onto reservations. Once there, assimilation programs introduced Native people to dairy, beef, and flour, disrupting long-lived food histories." title="An illustration of bison laying bloodied within a rocky grassy landscape. Text reads: To do this, the Spanish conquistadores needed lots of land. So they took it. Over the course of 400 years, they kneecapped Indigenous food systems and with them, entire populations, cementing a culture of cattle in their place. What better way to silence a people than to replace the way they connect to one another?

In the US, especially right after the Civil War, Anglo settlers pursued the dream of Manifest Destiny. Reconstruction wasn’t just for the renegade South, but the West, which they saw as lawless. As cattle ranching spread to Texas and other parts of the American West, the identity of vaqueros did too: cowboys were no longer about the nomadic, estate-to-estate lifestyle. They wanted ranches of their own.

“There&#039;s a long-running sense in American culture, and I bet in lots of places, about the farmer or the rancher as having a kind of independence that someone who merely works for a wage doesn&#039;t have,” Joshua Specht, author of Red Meat Republic: A Hoof-to-Table History of How Beef Changed America, told me. “That’s scary, but it&#039;s liberating too, that you&#039;re out there on your own, you&#039;re making your own destiny, you&#039;re not relying on someone for a paycheck.” 

That so-called liberation came with a heavy price. The 1862 Homestead Act transformed land ownership in the American West, giving US citizens the right to claim and farm on parcels of land — Indigenous land. Native Americans in the 18th and 19th centuries endured scorched-earth tactics intended to destroy their access to food and land. Across the Great Plains, the US military facilitated the extermination of tens of millions of wild bison, part of an intentional policy to destroy Indigenous people’s means of survival and force them onto reservations. Once there, assimilation programs introduced Native people to dairy, beef, and flour, disrupting long-lived food histories." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_15_b32026.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of a worker processing bloody sides of beef as they move down a conveyor belt. Text reads: The founding myth of the beef industry, of enterprising cowboys on the frontier, elides both the ugly origins of beef and its present-day reality. 

Today’s beef industry, dominated by four big meatpackers, has been intensively industrialized. Beef feedlots, a kind of factory farming, crowd thousands of cattle in muddy pens, where they emit massive amounts of methane that fuels climate change. Nearby communities contend with severe air pollution, strong odors, and health risks. As the most land-intensive human activity in the world, cattle pasture consumes about a third of the land in the continental US. Much of that — about 215 million acres — is government-managed public land, where cattle damage native ecosystems. 

Industrial animal agriculture depends on our cultural identification with beef for its legitimacy. Wrapped in a glossy story of cowboys on the frontier, factory farming serves as an extension of colonial violence and dispossession. Today, such entitlement looks like modern-day cowboys like the infamous rancher Cliven Bundy, who has been illegally grazing cows on federal land for decades, but gets away with it because of the cultural power of ranchers. 

Meanwhile, intensive animal agriculture is also peddled as a cheap solution to food system problems around the world. The Amazon rainforest, vital for the stability of our climate, is being cleared, often illegally, to make way for cattle grazing. It ain’t right, and it ain’t natural." title="An illustration of a worker processing bloody sides of beef as they move down a conveyor belt. Text reads: The founding myth of the beef industry, of enterprising cowboys on the frontier, elides both the ugly origins of beef and its present-day reality. 

Today’s beef industry, dominated by four big meatpackers, has been intensively industrialized. Beef feedlots, a kind of factory farming, crowd thousands of cattle in muddy pens, where they emit massive amounts of methane that fuels climate change. Nearby communities contend with severe air pollution, strong odors, and health risks. As the most land-intensive human activity in the world, cattle pasture consumes about a third of the land in the continental US. Much of that — about 215 million acres — is government-managed public land, where cattle damage native ecosystems. 

Industrial animal agriculture depends on our cultural identification with beef for its legitimacy. Wrapped in a glossy story of cowboys on the frontier, factory farming serves as an extension of colonial violence and dispossession. Today, such entitlement looks like modern-day cowboys like the infamous rancher Cliven Bundy, who has been illegally grazing cows on federal land for decades, but gets away with it because of the cultural power of ranchers. 

Meanwhile, intensive animal agriculture is also peddled as a cheap solution to food system problems around the world. The Amazon rainforest, vital for the stability of our climate, is being cleared, often illegally, to make way for cattle grazing. It ain’t right, and it ain’t natural." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_16_ec2a44.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of a young woman watching her friends dancing outside under a pergola. Text reads: It&#039;s hard to know how to square all this. The legacy of colonialism is baked into the hybrid cultures found across the Americas, but that culture is nonetheless authentic to people today, like me and my father. 

Culture is dynamic — its participants have agency, and today, there’s a vibrant conversation about whether beef should still be a part of our cultural traditions. There’s so much more to us than beef — we don’t have to accept the narratives that have been sold to us.

That’s easier said than done. Given food’s symbolic power and role as a social glue, letting go of beef needs to feel as culturally convincing as beef consumption. For me, curiosity about my cultural history has been an incredibly potent way to resist the chokehold of the beef industry." title="An illustration of a young woman watching her friends dancing outside under a pergola. Text reads: It&#039;s hard to know how to square all this. The legacy of colonialism is baked into the hybrid cultures found across the Americas, but that culture is nonetheless authentic to people today, like me and my father. 

Culture is dynamic — its participants have agency, and today, there’s a vibrant conversation about whether beef should still be a part of our cultural traditions. There’s so much more to us than beef — we don’t have to accept the narratives that have been sold to us.

That’s easier said than done. Given food’s symbolic power and role as a social glue, letting go of beef needs to feel as culturally convincing as beef consumption. For me, curiosity about my cultural history has been an incredibly potent way to resist the chokehold of the beef industry." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" /><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_17-1.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of two smiling young women sitting at a bountiful dinner table with friends.

Text reads: My ancestors in the Americas, for instance, likely ate abundant diverse plant foods, like corn, beans, squash, yucca, potatoes, peppers, nopales, and rice. Our traditional cooking methods are still here, woven intrinsically into the tapestry of Indigenous, and American, history.

Processes like nixtamalization — how corn is turned into masa, a dough used to make tortillas and tamales  — survived, but now coexist alongside entirely new sources of food. Cowboys might have given us fajitas — but that someone can enjoy that skirt steak with fresh corn tortillas reflects how resilient and alive culture can be. 

“America has succeeded in becoming more Indian over the past 245 years rather than the other way around,” Ojibwe writer David Treuer wrote in the Atlantic. I think about that a lot, when I’m slicing tomatoes or nibbling on a bit of chocolate, precolonial foods that connect me to an Indigenous past, despite their now-global, decontextualized ubiquity." title="An illustration of two smiling young women sitting at a bountiful dinner table with friends.

Text reads: My ancestors in the Americas, for instance, likely ate abundant diverse plant foods, like corn, beans, squash, yucca, potatoes, peppers, nopales, and rice. Our traditional cooking methods are still here, woven intrinsically into the tapestry of Indigenous, and American, history.

Processes like nixtamalization — how corn is turned into masa, a dough used to make tortillas and tamales  — survived, but now coexist alongside entirely new sources of food. Cowboys might have given us fajitas — but that someone can enjoy that skirt steak with fresh corn tortillas reflects how resilient and alive culture can be. 

“America has succeeded in becoming more Indian over the past 245 years rather than the other way around,” Ojibwe writer David Treuer wrote in the Atlantic. I think about that a lot, when I’m slicing tomatoes or nibbling on a bit of chocolate, precolonial foods that connect me to an Indigenous past, despite their now-global, decontextualized ubiquity." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/02/Cowboy_Colonialism_18_c8b09b.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="An illustration of a young woman walking with a basket of brisket and a basket of salad next to a race track. 

Text reads: Today, I no longer feel the need to defend a rigid lifestyle or dietary habit to feel culturally connected. Retaining the traditions and ideas that actually resonate with me, and expanding my view of what it means to be American, have helped me shed my past defensive relationship with beef. 

I feel just at home in my roots making bean and squash tacos for a dinner party in Brooklyn as I do eating brisket with my dad by the side of a racetrack in Austin, cars whipping by. " title="An illustration of a young woman walking with a basket of brisket and a basket of salad next to a race track. 

Text reads: Today, I no longer feel the need to defend a rigid lifestyle or dietary habit to feel culturally connected. Retaining the traditions and ideas that actually resonate with me, and expanding my view of what it means to be American, have helped me shed my past defensive relationship with beef. 

I feel just at home in my roots making bean and squash tacos for a dinner party in Brooklyn as I do eating brisket with my dad by the side of a racetrack in Austin, cars whipping by. " data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
	</feed>
