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	<title type="text">Jag Bhalla | Vox</title>
	<subtitle type="text">Our world has too much noise and too little context. Vox helps you understand what matters.</subtitle>

	<updated>2021-02-24T20:01:07+00:00</updated>

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		<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jag Bhalla</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[What’s your “fair share” of carbon emissions? You’re probably blowing way past it.]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/22291568/climate-change-carbon-footprint-greta-thunberg-un-emissions-gap-report" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/22291568/climate-change-carbon-footprint-greta-thunberg-un-emissions-gap-report</id>
			<updated>2021-02-24T15:01:07-05:00</updated>
			<published>2021-02-24T09:50:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Climate" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Our liberty-loving way of life has landed us in an encircling moral maze otherwise known as the climate crisis. That means certain of our cherished rights face a new test. While many are misled into imagining we can escape with minor tweaks to our &#8220;normal&#8221; lives, the science begs to differ: We have a very [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="Our current way of life largely encourages ever-greater flauntable consumption (larger homes, more energy-intensive travel, more carbon-burning baubles). What’s a better way? | Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22320929/GettyImages_165488937.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Our current way of life largely encourages ever-greater flauntable consumption (larger homes, more energy-intensive travel, more carbon-burning baubles). What’s a better way? | Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our liberty-loving way of life has landed us in an encircling moral maze otherwise known as the climate crisis. That means certain of our cherished rights face a new test. While many are misled into imagining we can escape with minor tweaks to our &ldquo;normal&rdquo; lives, the science begs to differ: We have a very narrow window to collectively cut emissions, or face a destabilized climate that will make life on Earth for most beings much more perilous.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Fortunately, there is much we can do to quickly improve matters, but first we need moral clarity. Consider this simple question: Since we are all created equal, what would equal carbon rights look like?&nbsp;</p>

<p>We now have part of an answer. The latest <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/emissions-gap-report-2020">United Nations Emissions Gap Report</a> includes the following chart, which shows that to stay on track for an average global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the average biosphere-baking emissions for each human on Earth under the most likely conditions needs to be 2.1 tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e) per year, by 2030. (The report also notes we&rsquo;re currently on track for a 3&deg;C temperature rise this century.)</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22315549/Bhalla_1.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="chart showing the average per capita carbon emissions for high-, middle-, and low-income earners" title="chart showing the average per capita carbon emissions for high-, middle-, and low-income earners" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="The purple figure is located at 2.1 tCO2e, which is the target per-person carbon emissions to meet 2030 targets for 1.5 degrees of warming. | &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020&quot;&gt;UN Emissions Gap Report 2020&lt;/a&gt;" data-portal-copyright="&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020&quot;&gt;UN Emissions Gap Report 2020&lt;/a&gt;" />
<p>For any given target temperature stabilization there is a &ldquo;carbon budget,&rdquo; a fixed total amount of carbon dioxide (and equivalents) that can be emitted by everyone, and everything, on Earth.&nbsp;To arrive at an &ldquo;equitable low-carbon lifestyle allocation&rdquo; of 2.1 tCO2e each per year by 2030, simply divide that total by the number of humans. The UN doesn&rsquo;t quite call this the carbon &ldquo;fair share,&rdquo; but that&rsquo;s what that horizontal line in the chart above means.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The moral of the chart&rsquo;s story is that the world&rsquo;s wealthy will need deep cuts as follows:&nbsp;</p>

<p>Let that sink in. The world&rsquo;s wealthy need cuts of over 90 percent&nbsp;of their carbon emissions, to get to their carbon fair share. The top-skew is so huge that the world&rsquo;s richest 1 percent cause double the carbon burden of the poorest 50 percent combined (that&rsquo;s 3.5 billion <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/21/worlds-richest-1-cause-double-co2-emissions-of-poorest-50-says-oxfam">people</a>).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Most &ldquo;middle class&rdquo; Americans are in the global top 1 or 10 percent.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Since the bulk of humans still aren&rsquo;t much to blame, calling this era the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/4/2/8335915/anthropocene-debate">Anthropocene</a> seems like an obscene and justice-denying misallocation of blame (&ldquo;anthropos&rdquo; here means humanity, but the bulk of humanity hasn&rsquo;t materially contributed to the biosphere&rsquo;s carbon burden). Perhaps technocene or plutocene or capitalocene would all be truer terms, since these gigantic globe-reshaping effects are caused by technology and overconsumption by the wealthy, and by capitalism.</p>

<p>To quote <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/science/climate-science-is-evolving-and-showcasing-human-cost-more-wallace-wells-1.4361542#:~:text=Wallace%2DWells%20acknowledges%20this%20when,other%20people%20on%20the%20planet.%E2%80%9D">David Wallace-Wells</a>, an editor at New York magazine and author of <em>The Uninhabitable Earth</em>,&nbsp;&ldquo;there is something of a moral crime in how much you and I and everyone we know consume, given how little is available to consume for so many other people on the planet.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Once we face the numbers squarely, it&rsquo;s clear that deep individual and systemic changes are needed, including to our view of our right to the &ldquo;pursuit of happiness&rdquo; and the duties they require of us. Are we content to merely enjoy these rights as gifts, or will we do the work necessary to ensure that sustainable versions of those rights can be enjoyed by our descendants? These cherished rights that our ancestors sacrificed much for must also be adapted to fit within the biosphere&rsquo;s limits.&nbsp;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How bad has the planet-plundering game gotten? </h2>
<p>Somehow the following super-relevant science hasn&rsquo;t gotten much attention: &ldquo;Any transition towards sustainability can only be effective if far-reaching lifestyle changes complement technological advancements.&rdquo; That&rsquo;s how several researchers put it in a 2020 <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16941-y?utm_medium=affiliate&amp;utm_source=commission_junction&amp;utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100045715&amp;utm_content=deeplink">Nature Communications paper</a> entitled &ldquo;Scientists&rsquo; warning on&nbsp;affluence.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The UN report seconds the conclusion, calling for a reframing of the meaning of affluence away from intensive resource use toward &ldquo;the achievement of well-being and quality of life&rdquo; within the biosphere&rsquo;s limits.&nbsp;</p>

<p>So when leaders like President Joe Biden say they&rsquo;ll heed &ldquo;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-technology-francis-collins-022fc771e262e6f1c7e33ffe80e1d37b">the science</a>&rdquo; on climate change,  that should mean urgently enacting deep cuts to emissions, not just by the US as a whole, but by the wealthiest Americans specifically. There is no other physically possible, science-consistent way to get to 1.5&deg;C stabilization, or even 2&deg;C. (The UN report&nbsp;says we are heading for a world that is 3.2&deg;C warmer, even with full implementation of the Paris climate agreement.)&nbsp;</p>

<p>The good news about such severely top-skewed resource use is that cuts in consumption by the wealthy have outsize benefits that are relatively painless. Our current way of life largely encourages flauntable consumption (larger homes, more energy-intensive travel, more carbon-burning baubles). Wouldn&rsquo;t it be wonderful if we flipped that script and got the rich to compete for &ldquo;fair share&rdquo; carbon status, signaling their merit-worthiness by conspicuous carbon-constrained consumption? Elite early adopters could become moral leaders and personal-ecological entrepreneurs, role-modeling future-friendly lifestyles, showcasing sufficiency and low-resource satisfactions.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Few now recall that not so long ago, for many wealthy Americans the &ldquo;idea of having enough frequently trumped the ambition for endless accumulation,&rdquo; writes historian Richard White in his essay &ldquo;<a href="https://bostonreview.net/archives/BR38.1/richard_white_gilded_age_wealth_inequality.php">Before Greed</a>.&rdquo; Until robber-baron norms were explicitly promoted, preached, and spread in the Gilded Age, elites once sought to be only &ldquo;opulent enough.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Unlimited greed isn&rsquo;t some immutable trait of human nature &mdash; its role has varied historically, and anthropologically.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Your market choices matter, mathematically and morally </h2>
<p>Contrary to the conscience-clearing trope that personal consumption choices don&rsquo;t really matter, the UN report says 70 percent of total global emissions emanate directly from personal purchasing decisions like diet and transportation. Here are a couple of face-slapping &ldquo;fun facts&rdquo;:</p>

<p>Our food system cooks up <a href="https://www.vox.com/21562639/climate-change-plant-based-diets-science-meat-dairy">30 percent of global greenhouse gases</a>, and even if all other emissions were zeroed out today, food impacts alone would eat through the entire 1.5&deg;C and 2&deg;C budgets.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Facing the full carbon costs of the food supply chain can reveal surprising facts: For example, the chart below shows that cheese has a greater climate impact than pork or chicken.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22321449/Environmental_impact_of_food_by_life_cycle_stage_1536x1380.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p>Meanwhile, one round-trip medium-haul flight burns 30 percent of an annual &ldquo;fair share&rdquo; (a long-haul, 90 percent). And while electric cars have half the impact of gas-burners, we need &ldquo;a major shift away from the car,&rdquo; Greg Marsden, a professor at Leeds University, told <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51977625">the BBC</a>. This science &ldquo;implies a really major social change. That is why it is a climate emergency and not a climate inconvenience,&rdquo; he said. Electric car sales alone won&rsquo;t keep us on track.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">“Green growth” is a gigantic global gamble </h2>
<p>Ecology is mostly a zero-sum game: At any given time, there is a finite amount of key resources available to support life.&nbsp;And carbon is just one of the resources that science tells us has zero-sum biosphere limits, that we have to figure out how to fairly allocate. These boundaries mean that in our beloved economic games, &ldquo;win-win&rdquo; can&rsquo;t always mean &ldquo;more-more&rdquo; anymore.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Here&rsquo;s how the biosphere&rsquo;s carbon dioxide handling capacity breaks down. The graphic is produced by <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm">the Global Carbon Project</a>, an organization whose scientific goal &ldquo;is to develop a complete picture of the global carbon cycle.&rdquo;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22316212/Bhalla_4.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/infographics.htm&quot;&gt;The Global Carbon Project&lt;/a&gt;" />
<p>As you can see, the global economy dumps around 40 gigatons of CO2 (34 Gt from fossil fuels and 5.9 Gt due to land use changes) while about 20 Gt is absorbed by vegetation, soils, and the oceans.&nbsp;</p>

<p>As Saul Griffith, a prominent tech optimist and advocate of abundance-oriented climate adaptation, writes in his book <a href="https://www.rewiringamerica.org/handbook"><em>Rewiring America</em></a>, &ldquo;Imagining that we can build machines [to capture carbon that work many]&nbsp;times better than all of biology is a fantasy created by the fossil fuel industry in order to keep on burning.&rdquo; Many such carry-on-burning-and-brunching &ldquo;ideas are cynically promoted by people who wish to keep profiting &hellip; [while] burning your children&rsquo;s future.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p>

<p>A similar keep-profiting dynamic may fuel zealous pursuit of the holy grail of &ldquo;growth&rdquo; (increased economic activity measured by GDP). Wallace-Wells paints our prevailing policy consensus as acting like GDP growth &ldquo;contained the whole meaning of life.&rdquo; And the idea of &ldquo;green growth&rdquo; is trumpeted as the cavalry charging over the hills to allow our global resource gobbling game to continue.</p>

<p>Obviously we should welcome greener efficiency-enhancing innovations that reduce the resource intensity of economic activity (delivering more GDP for the carbon-buck), but we&rsquo;re in a deadly race against time &mdash; on climate, winning slowly is the same as losing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>So the real issue is can &ldquo;green growth&rdquo; get us to our goal of deep carbon cuts by 2030?&nbsp;</p>

<p>Here&rsquo;s a relevant chart from the &ldquo;Scientists&rsquo; warning on affluence&rdquo; <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16941-y?">paper</a>, showing both global GDP (the orange line) and CO2 (the green line). Unfortunately, consumption growth has &ldquo;mostly outrun any beneficial effects of changes in technology over the past few decades. These results hold for the entire world,&rdquo; write the researchers.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22316217/Bhalla_5.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Wiedmann, et al. “&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16941-y&quot;&gt;Scientists’ warning on affluence&lt;/a&gt;,” Nature Communications" />
<p>So green growth&rsquo;s get-out-of-jail-guilt-free story doesn&rsquo;t yet fit the aggregate facts. For lower temperature stabilizations, there isn&rsquo;t time for green growth to bear fruit.&nbsp;Rich&nbsp;nations&nbsp;need about 9 percent in emissions cuts every year starting in 2021, for the next decade.</p>

<p>Again, &ldquo;green growth&rdquo; is gambling with the life prospects of our kids (and of all the other life that evolved to fit pre-crisis conditions). Bet badly and your kids get worse and likely shorter lives, facing climate-triggered wars, fires, food system strains, floods, refugees projected in the tens of millions, excess air pollution deaths also in the tens of millions, and more.&nbsp;As Wallace-Wells puts it, no life will be &ldquo;undeformed.&rdquo;</p>

<p>And the main gain from taking that gamble? The world&rsquo;s wealthy get ever more carbon-burning baubles. The shiny surface of abstract arguments for growth often hides a harder-to-face underbelly.</p>

<p>The current &ldquo;growth&rdquo; game, first, has a harsh zero-sum logic, and second, has precious little to do with ending poverty, though that argument is <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2013/06/01/towards-the-end-of-poverty">often used by those</a> justifying unrestrained capitalist growth.</p>
<ol class="wp-block-list"><li>Carbon physics reveals a global intergenerational zero-sum game: The more carbon we burn, the less carbon headroom our descendants will have. Alongside other resources consumed beyond renewable rates, scientists recently called this an “<a href="https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/greta-is-right-researchers-say">ecological Ponzi scheme</a>.” </li><li>And the “lifting people out of poverty” chorus about economic growth was dubbed an inertia-enabling “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/jul/11/covid-19-has-revealed-a-pre-existing-pandemic-of-poverty-that-benefits-the-rich">convenient alibi</a>” by Philip Alston, formerly a UN special rapporteur on poverty: any decent analysis of the data defies that delusion, since only about 5 percent of global income gains go to the bottom 60 percent (<a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/08/global-poverty-climate-change-sdgs">and at this rate, it would take over 200 years to end poverty</a>). “Nearly half [of global] growth has merely allowed the already wealthy top 10 percent to augment their consumption and enlarge their carbon footprints,” according to a <a href="https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/research-report-carbon-inequality-era.pdf">recent report</a> from Oxfam and the Stockholm Environment Institute.</li></ol>
<p>Since we can&rsquo;t avoid putting all our eggs into the same biosphere basket, we&rsquo;d better be super prudent. Until we&rsquo;re certain green growth can deliver, the sensible, &ldquo;science-backed&rdquo; approach suggests de-growth: a controlled curb on rich people&rsquo;s consumption, to buy time for green tech (or whatever your preferred long-term climate solution is) to be deployable at scale.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Here, Covid-19 offers key lessons. We changed consumption instantly on a vast scale (way faster than we can make large political or technological changes happen). The pandemic led to a 10 percent drop in US carbon emissions in 2020, according to preliminary estimates by the <a href="https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/">Rhodium Group</a>. We must hit that every year this decade to stabilize at 1.5&deg;C.&nbsp;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How we can do better </h2>
<p>So what the hell can anyone do? The main answer for the majority of folks reading this is to cut your personal consumption, and to press for political and systemic changes to get off the &ldquo;hedonic treadmill,&rdquo; at least until we&rsquo;ve stabilized. The &ldquo;hedonic treadmill&rdquo; refers to the effect that increases in consumption often result in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_treadmill">no permanent gain in happiness</a>.</p>

<p>We&rsquo;ve all felt negligible or fleeting satisfaction from consumption, but sadly the carbon impacts are far from fleeting &mdash; they will last centuries. It&rsquo;s critical to avoid <a href="https://www.vox.com/21450911/climate-change-coronavirus-greta-thunberg-flying-degrowth">mindless overconsumption</a>. Many <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329547708_The_state_of_carbon_footprint_calculators_An_evaluation_of_calculator_design_and_user_interaction_features">carbon footprint calculators</a> are available to help you figure out your own carbon impact.</p>

<p>There&rsquo;s also Peter Kalmus&rsquo;s book, <a href="https://peterkalmus.net/books/read-by-chapter-being-the-change/"><em>Being the Change</em></a><em>: Live Well and Spark a Climate Revolution</em>. Kalmus is a NASA climate scientist living in Northern California, and his book describes how he personally got to 2 tCO2e per year. He also founded the <a href="https://noflyclimatesci.org/">No Fly Climate Science</a> nonprofit, a group of climate scientists and others who have vowed not to use air travel, or to fly less. I see his point; if climate scientists aren&rsquo;t making large changes in their own lives, why would others take their results seriously?</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Kids’-eye view</h2>
<p>A quick way to cut through the cognitive fog here is to always consider actual kids, not abstractions like economic &ldquo;growth.&rdquo; Take the kids&rsquo;-eye view: When they look back at your consumer and political choices, what will they think?</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22316226/BigThink2_Greta_FatCat_2.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Illustration by Julia Suits, New Yorker cartoonist and author of &lt;em&gt;The Extraordinary Catalog of Peculiar Inventions.&lt;/em&gt;" />
<p>And always ask, &ldquo;What would Greta Thunberg think?&rdquo; She easily sees past the shiny surface of old-moral-world arguments that divert or immobilize &ldquo;serious&rdquo; adults. It sure seems like her scolding speech at the UN about &ldquo;<a href="https://www.eesi.org/articles/view/the-fairy-tale-of-eternal-economic-growth">fairy tales of endless growth</a>&rdquo; contributed to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/articles/2020-12-11/carbon-neutrality-2050-theworld%E2%80%99s-most-urgent-mission">statement in December</a>: &ldquo;Science tells us that unless we cut fossil fuel production by 6 percent every year between now and 2030, things will get worse. Instead, the world is on track for a 2 percent annual rise.&rdquo;</p>

<p>This way of life is looking far from innocent.&nbsp;It fails the basic duty of care to protect our own kids.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Human rights, rightly understood</h2>
<p>Having started this piece by positing a new human right, it&rsquo;s worth reexamining what existing rights mean (or imply, and justify). Does a right to &ldquo;life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness&rdquo; include a right to consume whatever you can buy, even if your pursuit of happiness heats the planet and harms your own kids? Can that be in anyone&rsquo;s interests?</p>

<p>Who really has an incentive to gain by harming their descendants? Happiness through consumption has so far never charged full price (carbon taxes should really be called &ldquo;truer costs&rdquo;). Consumption above your carbon &ldquo;fair share&rdquo; is far from harm-free.&nbsp;</p>

<p>This sort of tacit &ldquo;right to harm&rdquo; framing might sound weird, but this logic has been seriously weighed by the courts: Judge Josephine Staton, <a href="https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2020/01/17/18-36082.pdf">dissenting</a> in <em>Juliana v. United States</em> (aka the kids&rsquo; climate case), wrote, &ldquo;Seeking to quash this suit, the government bluntly insists that it has the absolute and unreviewable power to destroy the Nation.&rdquo; Courts around the world are being inundated by a <a href="https://undark.org/2020/12/31/the-kids-taking-the-climate-fight-to-the-courts/">rising tide of climate cases</a> (1,300 in 28 nations, <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/GRI_Global-trends-in-climate-change-litigation-2019-snapshot-2.pdf">according to a 2019 report</a>).&nbsp;</p>

<p>Why do we, and our governments, act as if businesses have some sort of &ldquo;right to wreck&rdquo; our life support system? Do the wealthy have a right to continue using resources at rates that science says will cause vast future suffering? In effect, this pits existing rights against each other: pursuit of happiness by unlimited consumption interferes with the right to life of others.</p>

<p>These 18th-century rights to &ldquo;life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness&rdquo; were developed under very different conditions. We now live in a world of material and moral limits. The science says&nbsp;that consumption rates beyond our biosphere&rsquo;s limits will worsen our kids&rsquo; lives.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Fortunately, the scientific, legal, and moral momentum are converging on the same hopeful action story. For example, flourishing lives for 10 billion people are possible with existing tech, using less than 40 percent of today&rsquo;s total energy production. Renewable energy technologies already cover half that, at <a href="https://www.c2es.org/content/renewable-energy/">about 26 percent worldwide</a> in 2018, according to the nonprofit Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. But the numbers are equally clear that current highly top-skewed resource consumption patterns aren&rsquo;t sustainable.&nbsp;</p>

<p>After Covid-19, many will be strongly tempted to rush back to prior habits, but that would return to the noxious normal that got us into this mess. The arc of this aspect of the moral universe is not long. We are far from bending it toward ecological justice.</p>

<p><a href="https://twitter.com/hangingnoodles"><em>Jag&nbsp;Bhalla</em></a><em> is a&nbsp;writer&nbsp;and entrepreneur (his latest venture makes NanoSalad).&nbsp;&nbsp;</em></p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Eliza Barclay</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jag Bhalla</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[How affluent people can end their mindless overconsumption]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/21450911/climate-change-coronavirus-greta-thunberg-flying-degrowth" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/21450911/climate-change-coronavirus-greta-thunberg-flying-degrowth</id>
			<updated>2021-02-23T11:20:16-05:00</updated>
			<published>2020-11-20T08:09:36-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Climate" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Covid-19" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[If 2020 teaches us anything, it&#8217;s that the next crisis we could have prevented is probably right around the corner, and it will be painful. A pandemic that scientists warned was very likely to occur arrived and has already killed well over 250,000 people in the US. Dozens of predicted, large wildfires &#8212; the latest [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="A new report from Oxfam and the Stockholm Environment Institute shows the strikingly unequal way rich people are depleting the global carbon budget. | Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/21906776/GettyImages_699087378.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	A new report from Oxfam and the Stockholm Environment Institute shows the strikingly unequal way rich people are depleting the global carbon budget. | Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If 2020 teaches us anything, it&rsquo;s that the next crisis we could have prevented is probably right around the corner, and it will be painful. A pandemic that scientists warned was <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/2/23/16974012/trump-pandemic-disease-response">very likely</a> to occur arrived and has already killed well over <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">250,000 people</a> in the US. Dozens of predicted, <a href="https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm">large wildfires</a> &mdash; the <a href="https://www.vox.com/21452781/zogg-fire-glass-wildfire-california-climate-change-hurricanes-attribution-2020-debate">latest evidence</a> of the climate emergency &mdash; recentlu torched the American West, their smoke <a href="https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-fires-damage-climate-change-analysis/">more damaging to health</a> than almost any fire season on record.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p>But it&rsquo;s not too late to intervene and limit climate chaos.</p>

<p>A June <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16941-y">paper</a> in <em>Nature Communications</em> clarifies whose actions in this moment are &ldquo;central to any future prospect of retreating to safer environmental conditions.&rdquo; Yes, government and industry leaders are on the hook to decarbonize operations and infrastructure. But it&rsquo;s also the affluent who use far more resources than the poor &mdash; more energy and more material goods per capita than the planet can sustain.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Highly affluent consumers drive biophysical resource use (a) directly through high consumption, (b) as members of powerful factions of the capitalist class and (c) through driving consumption norms across the population,&rdquo; the authors write.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The rich or merely affluent, it turns out, are actually the ones blowing through the world&rsquo;s carbon budget &mdash; the maximum amount of cumulative emissions that can be added to the atmosphere to hit <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/3/21045263/climate-change-1-5-degrees-celsius-target-ipcc">the&nbsp;Paris agreement&rsquo;s 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming goal</a>.</p>

<p>According to a September <a href="https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/research-report-carbon-inequality-era.pdf">report</a> from Oxfam and the Stockholm Environment Institute, the richest 10 percent of the world&rsquo;s population &mdash; those who earned $38,000 per year or more as of 2015 &mdash; were responsible for 52 percent of cumulative carbon emissions and ate up 31 percent of the world&rsquo;s carbon budget from 1990 to 2015.</p>

<p>Meanwhile, the richest 1 percent of people &mdash; who made $109,000 or more per year in 2015 &mdash; alone were responsible for 15 percent of cumulative emissions, and used 9 percent of the carbon budget.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions">rapidly accelerating growth in total emissions worldwide</a> isn&rsquo;t mainly about an improvement in quality of life for the poorer half of the world&rsquo;s population, either. Instead, the report <a href="https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/research-report-carbon-inequality-era.pdf">finds</a>, &ldquo;nearly half the growth has merely allowed the already wealthy top 10 percent to augment their consumption and enlarge their carbon footprints.&rdquo; <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378020307779">Another recent study</a> found that affluent frequent fliers who make up just 1 percent of the global population are responsible for 50 percent of carbon dioxide emissions&nbsp;from commercial aviation.</p>

<p>In sum, as Tim Gore, head of climate policy at Oxfam, said in a <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/carbon-emissions-richest-1-percent-more-double-emissions-poorest-half-humanity">statement</a>, &ldquo;The over-consumption of a wealthy minority is fueling the climate crisis yet it is poor communities and young people who are paying the price.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Somehow, in all the campaigns to inspire climate action, the onus on well-off people to take the lead on sustainable consumption has been lost. But the Covid-19 pandemic may turn out to be the best opportunity &mdash; especially for the affluent among us &mdash; to shift consumption habits.</p>

<p>Here&rsquo;s why: When we cut back on energy-intensive travel and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/business/retail-sales-consumer-spending-rise.html">shopping</a> in the spring, it was easier to see the mindlessness, and even lack of satisfaction, in these patterns. For some people, &ldquo;the Covid-19 crisis has shown that maybe we can do things differently, that a simpler life can be more fulfilling and provide more happiness,&rdquo; says Tommy Wiedmann, a professor of sustainability research at UNSW Sydney and a co-author of the <em>Nature Communications</em> paper.</p>

<p>Permanently reducing air travel, driving, home energy use, food waste, and shopping to protect our kids and grandkids from climate chaos need not lead to any reduction in quality of life. In fact, it may even go a long way toward improving it (for ourselves and others). As Vox&rsquo;s Sigal Samuel <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/6/9/21279258/coronavirus-pandemic-new-quarantine-habits">reported in June</a>, the top change readers she surveyed said they wanted to maintain after quarantine was &ldquo;reducing consumerism.&rdquo; &ldquo;A long period of being shut in and not spending as much has led to the realization that so much of our consumer behavior is about instant gratification, not lasting happiness,&rdquo; she writes.</p>

<p>We can also use lessons from our new Covid-constrained life for further economic reforms tailored to the climate emergency reality we find ourselves in. As Pope Francis put it in a Saturday speech on climate change, &ldquo;The current economic system is unsustainable. We are faced with a moral imperative &#8230; to rethink many things,&rdquo; including means of production, consumerism, waste, indifference to the poor, and harmful energy sources, according to <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-pope/pull-investments-from-companies-not-committed-to-environment-pope-says-idUKKBN26V0XN">Reuters</a>.</p>

<p>In particular, degrowth is a promising framework for meeting basic needs and improving well-being while staying within the carbon budget and <a href="https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries/planetary-boundaries/about-the-research/the-nine-planetary-boundaries.html">planetary boundaries</a>.</p>

<p>While individual contributions to climate change may be dwarfed by the contributions of fossil fuel companies and <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/10/10/20904213/climate-change-steel-cement-industrial-heat-hydrogen-ccs">heavy industry</a>, individual changes can also spread by &ldquo;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/20/how-peer-pressure-can-help-save-planet">behavioral contagion</a>,&rdquo; <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/29/21083250/climate-change-social-tipping-points">social tipping points</a>, and positive feedback loops.</p>

<p>Here we&rsquo;ll lay out some of the key opportunities for fellow fortunates who have the economic freedom to choose how and what they consume. Individual, grassroots changes are essential to a bigger systemic change; personal growth and flourishing can happen through resource degrowth.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/21906726/GettyImages_1205721221.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Optional consumption in the form of long-distance travel is imposing unoptional burdens on future humans for centuries. | Getty Images/Cavan Images RF" data-portal-copyright="Getty Images/Cavan Images RF" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading">Yes, individual choices matter, especially if you’re affluent</h2>
<p>From a global perspective, middle-class Americans are in the top 10 percent income-wise. &ldquo;A $59,000 income in the United States has enough buying power to put you in the 91st percentile <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/business/global-income-calculator/">globally for per-person income</a>,&rdquo; according to the Washington Post. And beyond that, our fellow fortunates all have &ldquo;optional consumption&rdquo; that we engage in, often unreflectively.</p>

<p>Given that leverage, every energy reduction we can make is a gift to future humans, and all life on Earth. And we should be on guard for excuses to avoid changing individual consumption behaviors; they&rsquo;re often based on logical, arithmetic, and moral errors.</p>

<p>For instance, affluent people sometimes argue that their consumption choices don&rsquo;t matter because they&rsquo;re just one person on a planet of more than 7 billion. But consider the physics of tipping points using an analogy from a 2019 piece we wrote, &ldquo;<a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/5/17/18626825/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-greta-thunberg-climate-change">12 excuses for climate inaction and how to refute</a>,&rdquo; which helps explain why our decisions today are so much more critical than they were a decade ago &mdash; or even this time last year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>A useful image here is a pile of sand on one side of a weighing scale; at or near the tipping point, it&rsquo;s easy to see that every tiny grain of sand contributes to when that side of the scale ultimately falls. Your seemingly tiny contribution &mdash; the optional flight, the round-the-clock air conditioning, the thrice-weekly portion of beef &mdash; can, arithmetically, add up to make a critical difference. And &ldquo;the bigger your carbon footprint, the bigger your moral duty,&rdquo; Greta Thunberg said in her <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/25/our-house-is-on-fire-greta-thunberg16-urges-leaders-to-act-on-climate">widely cited 2019 speech</a> at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.</p>

<p>Where the weighing scale image fails is that there isn&rsquo;t just one tipping point or one single outcome, but rather a spectrum. The fewer greenhouse gases we emit, the nearer to the safer end of the spectrum we can stay, and the less climate chaos we will create.&nbsp;</p>

<p>We usually have options where we can choose to have more or less climate impact. Every time we choose more and not less, we&rsquo;re imposing compounding burdens on others and on our descendants. Our choices will determine whether the future is &ldquo;merely grim, rather than apocalyptic,&rdquo; as New York&rsquo;s David Wallace-Wells writes in his book <em>The Uninhabitable Earth</em>.</p>

<p>Restrained consumption is also a way to prevent the deepening of racial and economic injustice and inequality &mdash; low-income people and people of color are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/21/sitka-alaska-community-changed-forever-climate-change-cora-dow?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsmi=95767748&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz%E2%80%94WOf9VbDkfTm4SJ8Ovetm8UZu6NGWgAnS-2exDUE0TXrwMDH63At1uyu7EhMb1u9-6g7qTpEbo6PsV7EwnObzYZfydjQ&amp;utm_content=95767748&amp;utm_source=hs_email">among the first</a> to lose the most in climate disasters. Working toward justice means being a resource-responsible consumer.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&ldquo;I think it is important for people to say that they will not do certain types of consumption anymore,&rdquo; <a href="https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/see/staff/1553/professor-julia-steinberger">Julia Steinberger</a>, a professor of ecological economics at the University of Leeds and a co-author of the <em>Nature Communications</em> paper, tells Vox. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s about making this way of life more visibly unacceptable. The rich could show their status and prestige with other things than lots of cars and huge houses and lots of material wealth.&rdquo;</p>

<p>With all this in mind, here are five potential resource-responsible actions to commit to, in no particular order:</p>
<ol class="wp-block-list"><li><strong>Drive and fly less</strong>, since the top 10 percent uses around 45 percent of land transport energy and 75 percent of air transport energy, per a 2020 <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/3/20/21184814/climate-change-energy-income-inequality">paper</a> by Steinberger in <em>Nature Energy</em>.</li><li><strong>Retrofit your house and purchase clean energy</strong>, since <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/117/32/19122">roughly 20 percent</a> of US energy-related greenhouse gas emissions come from heating, cooling, and powering households.</li><li><strong>Buy food mindfully (less meat and dairy, don’t waste what you buy)</strong>, since meat and dairy account for around <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/i3437e/i3437e.pdf">14.5</a> percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization.</li><li><strong>Shop less</strong>, since the fashion industry generates <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0058-9">at least 5 percent of global emissions</a>. </li><li><strong>Ditch status-signaling SUVs</strong>, since SUVs were <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/01/suv-conquered-america-climate-change-emissions">the second-largest source of the global rise in emissions</a> over the past decade, eclipsing all shipping, aviation, heavy industry, and even trucks.</li></ol><h2 class="wp-block-heading">The pleasures of much of our consumption are fast forgotten, but the costs are slow and will be felt by generations for centuries to come</h2>
<p>Despite what consumption enthusiasts and their enablers (marketers, economists, etc.) preach, the benefits and pleasures of much of our consumption are fleeting. Many of us have an inkling of this from our own experience, but we&rsquo;re trapped on the treadmill of unthinking hedonic habits.&nbsp;</p>

<p>That enduring lack of true satisfaction is confirmed by much ancient wisdom: Enlightenment, or Nirvana, is the &ldquo; the absence of greed, absence of dislike, and absence of egoism,&rdquo; as the Buddhist writer and scholar Stephen Batchelor notes in an interview with On Being&rsquo;s Krista Tippett. And one of the most <a href="https://twitter.com/econnaturalist/status/1251561458812542979">robust findings in social science</a>, according to economist Robert Frank at Cornell, is the research on how emotional well-being doesn&rsquo;t improve&nbsp;above <a href="https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2018/Q1/money-only-buys-happiness-for-a-certain-amount.html">an annual (individual) income of $75,000</a>.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter alignnone"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Things that don’t matter right now:<br><br>&#8211; Clothes<br>&#8211; Shoes<br>&#8211; Watches<br>&#8211; Jewelry<br>&#8211; Cars<br><br>What’s the new status symbol during a lockdown?</p>&mdash; Andrew Wilkinson (@awilkinson) <a href="https://twitter.com/awilkinson/status/1246141686058795017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 3, 2020</a></blockquote>
</div></figure>
<p>Some of our least effective consumption occurs in the form of self-soothing habits. When we&rsquo;re feeling bad, or anxious, or bored, we often seek relief in <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-science-behind-behavior/202003/how-anxiety-affects-our-buying-behaviors">impulsive shopping</a>, a.k.a. retail therapy.&nbsp;</p>

<p>What longer-lasting reliefs beat fleeting fun? You may have experienced part of the answer in these Covid-constrained conditions. For many, an activity as simple as a walk has been their day&rsquo;s treat.&nbsp;</p>

<p>That&rsquo;s especially true if you find beauty or curiosity on your walk, where you notice things interesting enough to achieve what Iris Murdoch called &ldquo;unselfing&rdquo; &mdash; taking you out of your self-centered anxieties, even if only temporarily. (Here&rsquo;s some background on this idea from <a href="https://www.brainpickings.org/2019/10/21/iris-murdoch-unselfing/">Maria Popova</a>.) <strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>

<p>These spirit-supporting pleasures typically take more effort than reaching for &ldquo;junk&rdquo; treats (like a quick online purchase). But, in addition to being more satisfying, they often lack negative knock-on effects, like putting more carbon into the atmosphere. This carbon cost isn&rsquo;t just about you &mdash; it is our collective legacy to our children and all future humans.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Hopefully, Covid-19 can teach us to pay attention to <a href="https://ideas.ted.com/the-9-limits-of-our-planet-and-how-weve-raced-past-4-of-them/">planetary boundaries</a> and other collective threats we&rsquo;ve long ignored. On climate, we should wake up to the intergenerational zero-sum game we are playing, where the carbon-generating and resource-depleting consumption we indulge in now compromises the safety of future humans.</p>

<p>Every physical resource is limited, or is renewable within certain limits. And this logic means there is no &ldquo;green growth&rdquo; solution here unless we reduce consumption: the approach known as &ldquo;degrowth.&rdquo;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Degrowth, explained</h2>
<p>Even before Covid-19, a fundamental restructuring of the economy was very clearly needed to right the gaping inequities, the shockingly lopsided accumulation &mdash; nay, hoarding &mdash; of wealth. The factors that led to that <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21207520/coronavirus-deaths-economy-layoffs-inequality-covid-pandemic">are only being exacerbated</a> by Covid-19. But as we recover from the pandemic,&nbsp;richer countries and citizens have a tremendous opportunity to remold under another paradigm.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Degrowth, as the economic anthropologist <a href="https://www.jasonhickel.org/about">Jason Hickel</a> puts it, is about rich countries &ldquo;actively scaling down resource use and energy use.&rdquo;</p>

<p>On a recent episode of the <a href="https://freakonomics.com/podcast/doughnut-economics/"><em>Freakonomics</em></a> podcast, he clarified: &ldquo;When people hear &lsquo;degrowth,&rsquo; they think that sounds like a recession. But here&rsquo;s the thing &#8230; a recession is what happens when a growth-oriented economy stops growing. It&rsquo;s a disaster. People lose their jobs. They lose their houses. Poverty rates rise, etc. &lsquo;Degrowth&rsquo; is calling for a shift to a fundamentally different kind of economy altogether.&rdquo;</p>

<p>As Wiedmann, Steinberger, and their co-authors describe it, degrowth is a &ldquo;downscaled steady-state economic system that is socially just and in balance with ecological limits.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Taking advantage of this opportunity also requires going beyond a focus on carbon emissions. Clean energy, for example, won&rsquo;t deliver a sustainable economy by itself. It&rsquo;s about our resource use more broadly. (Even preexisting sweeping proposals like the Green New Deal often don&rsquo;t address material limits.)</p>

<p>As <a href="https://www.jasonhickel.org/about">Hickel</a> wrote in June in <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/18/more-from-less-green-growth-environment-gdp">Foreign Policy</a>:</p>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-none is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>Ecologists say that the planet can handle maximum annual resource use of about 50 billion metric tons per year. We crossed that planetary boundary in the late 1990s, and today we&rsquo;re overshooting it by more than 90 percent. This is what&rsquo;s driving ecological breakdown: Every additional ton of material extraction has an impact on the <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/18/more-from-less-green-growth-environment-gdp/">planet&rsquo;s ecosystems</a>.&nbsp;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The outer limit works out to be about 6 metric tons per human per year. The current US average is 35 metric tons, with those toward the top of the income scale consuming vastly more. This means there is no avoiding the urgent need for deep cuts in energy and material use in rich nations, especially among those countries&rsquo; richest citizens.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Since we may not be able to remove much of the carbon that has already been emitted, or return the materials that have already been extracted, it&rsquo;s best now to adopt a forward-looking redemption stance. What matters most is reducing impacts from here on out, rather than prosecuting past &ldquo;sins,&rdquo; often committed unwittingly, or by rich-mimicking rather than explicit choice. And that means choosing not to mindlessly add more grains of sand to the scale.</p>

<p>There are green shoots visible of the vast changes needed. China committed Tuesday to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and peak its emissions by 2030. <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/11/the-enduring-romance-of-the-night-train">Night trains</a> are coming back in Europe partially in response to people demanding low-carbon alternatives to flying. A group of European central bankers wrote in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/05/world-climate-breakdown-pandemic">Guardian</a> in June that &ldquo;the pandemic offers a unique chance to green the global economy&rdquo; and is mobilizing businesses, investors, banks, and governments &ldquo;to ensure climate risks are effectively managed in the financial system.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p>

<p>You, too, can bank on bettering your personal economy by creating a new normal of mindful consumption and making it visible to others in the affluent class, as Steinberger advises. You&rsquo;ll be a better, and probably happier, person. And other humans, including your kids, will thank you.&nbsp;</p>
<div class="video-container"><iframe src="https://volume.vox-cdn.com/embed/3a091b13d?player_type=youtube&#038;loop=1&#038;placement=article&#038;tracking=article:rss" allowfullscreen frameborder="0" allow=""></iframe></div>
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									</content>
			
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jag Bhalla</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[This viral Angela Merkel clip explains the risks of loosening social distancing too fast]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21225916/coronavirus-in-germany-angela-merkel-lifting-lockdown" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21225916/coronavirus-in-germany-angela-merkel-lifting-lockdown</id>
			<updated>2020-04-18T11:19:08-04:00</updated>
			<published>2020-04-18T08:23:34-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Covid-19" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Science" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[When you have a huge hole where your nation&#8217;s leadership should be, it is wise to borrow the best of other people&#8217;s leaders. They can&#8217;t make America&#8217;s big decisions, but they can fill in some of the gaps. In the Covid-19 pandemic, we can take comfort in their competence and use their wisdom to guide [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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											<![CDATA[

						
<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="German Chancellor Angela Merkel announces on April 15 the first steps in lifting coronavirus restrictions that have plunged the economy into a recession. | Christian Marquardt/Pool/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Christian Marquardt/Pool/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19909845/GettyImages_1210050360.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	German Chancellor Angela Merkel announces on April 15 the first steps in lifting coronavirus restrictions that have plunged the economy into a recession. | Christian Marquardt/Pool/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When you have a <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/16/21223640/trump-denial-coronavirus-covid-19-failings-propaganda-battles-media-coverage">huge hole</a> where your nation&rsquo;s leadership should be, it is wise to borrow the best of other people&rsquo;s leaders. They can&rsquo;t make America&rsquo;s big decisions, but they can fill in some of the gaps.</p>

<p>In the <a href="https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19">Covid-19 pandemic</a>, we can take comfort in their competence and use their wisdom to guide us about what we each should do.</p>

<p>Right now, the United States and many other nations are considering easing social distancing and other restrictions if and when their new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations become flat or start to fall. And German Chancellor Angela Merkel (who happens to have <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Angela-Merkel">scientific chops</a>) has an important lesson that we should all listen to.</p>

<p>On Wednesday, she laid out important logic about the coronavirus pandemic that hasn&rsquo;t been communicated clearly enough here in the US. In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/apr/16/merkel-sets-out-clear-explanation-of-how-coronavirus-transmission-works-video">simple and clear terms</a>, she explains why Germany doesn&rsquo;t have much &ldquo;wiggle room&rdquo; in its hospital capacity. Because of this, any lifting of its lockdown, like allowing some shops to open next week, will remain &ldquo;on thin ice.&rdquo;</p>
<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="Angela Merkel uses science background in coronavirus explainer" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/22SQVZ4CeXA?rel=0" allowfullscreen allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div>
<p>Merkel&rsquo;s explanation, which went viral, is centered on the metric called R0, or basic reproduction number. It represents the number of people a sick person will infect&nbsp;on average in a group that&rsquo;s susceptible to the disease (meaning they don&rsquo;t already have immunity).</p>

<p>She says that if Germany&rsquo;s R0 were to shift from a flat rate of 1.0 to 1.1, the nation&rsquo;s hospitals would be crushed by October, without sufficient resources to care for all of the severely ill Covid-19 patients. If the R0 goes up to 1.2, that overload hits in July. And so on.</p>

<p>Covid&rsquo;s current global average R0 <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/2/21197617/coronavirus-pandemic-covid-19-death-rate-transmission-risk-factors-lockdowns-social-distancing">is 2-2.5</a>, but Germany has done a good enough job of <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/2020/3/27/21196246/coronavirus-germany-death-rate-covid-19-cases-italy-europe">managing its outbreak</a> to get its reported estimated R0 down to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-16/coronavirus-s-relentless-march-in-europe-clouds-reopening-plans">0.7</a> as of April 17. That&rsquo;s low enough for Merkel to sanction &ldquo;a tentative easing of restriction.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Germany is not out of the woods, however. Marieke Degen, the deputy spokesperson of Germany&rsquo;s Robert Koch Institute, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/17/21223915/coronavirus-germany-france-cases-death-rate">told Vox&rsquo;s Alex Ward</a> that it&rsquo;s &ldquo;very important to stress that Germany is still at the beginning of the epidemic&rdquo; and that more and more elderly people in the country are getting sick.</p>

<p>America, for many reasons, has even less wiggle room than Germany. Germany has eight hospital beds per capita compared to America&rsquo;s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds">2.7</a> beds. In ICU beds, Germany has 8.3 per capita while America has <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds">6.6</a>.</p>

<p>It is also testing for coronavirus at twice the US rate (<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing#german">21</a> vs <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing#united-states">9.8</a> tests per 1,000 people). Without <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/13/21215133/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-screening">robust testing</a>, you can&rsquo;t keep good tabs on R0 or the related <a href="http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/">Rt</a> &mdash; and you can end up flying blind, risking <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/7/21201260/coronavirus-usa-chart-mask-shortage-ventilators-flatten-the-curve">health system overload</a> and avoidable deaths.&nbsp;</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter alignnone"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here&#039;s Instagram co-founder <a href="https://twitter.com/kevin?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@kevin</a>&#039;s new virus site that takes his recent models and updates them live in real time, in collaboration with <a href="https://twitter.com/mikeyk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@mikeyk</a> &#8212; <a href="https://t.co/zpi35TIEdw">https://t.co/zpi35TIEdw</a> <a href="https://t.co/2qHZLDaL5n">pic.twitter.com/2qHZLDaL5n</a></p>&mdash; Emily Chang (@emilychangtv) <a href="https://twitter.com/emilychangtv/status/1251241401246871552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 17, 2020</a></blockquote>
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<p>Covid-19 spreads in an exponential way, and it&rsquo;s worth emphasizing <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/3/15/21180342/coronavirus-covid-19-us-social-distancing">exponential growth&rsquo;s dynamics</a>. Tiny shifts in risk grow very quickly, leading to deadly results, as this useful <a href="https://twitter.com/dsymetweets/status/1246932707541745669">tweet thread</a> shows:</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter alignnone"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Exponentials still have the capacity to shock me.<br><br>If mass wearing of masks make just 0.01 shift in the spread per day, from say 1.22x to 1.21x, there would now be ~20% fewer cases (and ~20% fewer deaths) in the UK since March 12.<br><br>I had to double check that multiple times.</p>&mdash; Don Syme (@dsymetweets) <a href="https://twitter.com/dsymetweets/status/1246932707541745669?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 5, 2020</a></blockquote>
</div></figure>
<p>The small choices we each make about risky behaviors are like playing Russian roulette, but with a machine gun. You may have thought that if you&rsquo;re not in a high-risk group (like <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21173783/coronavirus-death-age-covid-19-elderly-seniors">older adults</a>), and the case fatality rate is around <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/2/21197617/coronavirus-pandemic-covid-19-death-rate-transmission-risk-factors-lockdowns-social-distancing">1 percent</a>, then the threat isn&rsquo;t so great. Surely we can loosen restrictions?</p>

<p>But that&rsquo;s like being locked in a room with 100 people, where your collective behavior determines how many bullets are live in the machine gun that&rsquo;s about to strafe all of you. You might not die, but others surely will.</p>

<p>Covid-19 is already the leading cause of death in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronavirus-leading-cause-death/?arc404=true">many areas</a>, including New York state, Louisiana, and Washington, DC. Do you want to add ammunition to its arsenal?</p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Eliza Barclay</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jag Bhalla</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[12 excuses for climate inaction and how to refute them]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/5/17/18626825/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-greta-thunberg-climate-change" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/5/17/18626825/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-greta-thunberg-climate-change</id>
			<updated>2019-09-23T17:23:57-04:00</updated>
			<published>2019-09-20T14:05:37-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Climate" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future Perfect" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Science" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[There&#8217;s a reason why the 16-year-old Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg has successfully goaded powerful politicians into long-overdue climate action in the last year. Thunberg, who is on the autism spectrum, has become a moral authority. Again and again, she&#8217;s clearly articulated how adults have shamefully abdicated their basic duties to protect today&#8217;s children and [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p>There&rsquo;s a reason why the 16-year-old Swedish climate activist <a href="https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg">Greta Thunberg</a> has successfully goaded powerful politicians into long-overdue climate action in the last year.</p>

<p>Thunberg, <a href="https://www.vox.com/first-person/2019/5/6/18531551/autism-greta-thunberg-speech">who is on the autism spectrum</a>, has become a moral authority.<strong> </strong>Again and again, she&rsquo;s clearly articulated<strong> </strong>how adults have shamefully abdicated their basic duties to protect today&rsquo;s children and future generations from compounding climate catastrophe. &ldquo;This ongoing irresponsible behavior will no doubt be remembered in history as one of the greatest failures of humankind,&rdquo; she <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/23/greta-thunberg-full-speech-to-mps-you-did-not-act-in-time">told the British Parliament</a>.</p>

<p>&ldquo;You only talk about moving forward with the same bad ideas that got us into this mess, even when the only sensible thing to do is pull the emergency brake. You are not mature enough to tell it like is. Even that burden you leave to us children,&rdquo; she <a href="https://twitter.com/gretathunberg/status/1073527918616297472?lang=en">declared</a> at the United Nations in December.</p>

<p>Her ability to sway politicians and the public, in speeches and through her Friday <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/2/21/18233206/march-15-climate-strike">school strikes</a>, is now evident: European leaders <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davekeating/2019/05/15/citing-greta-thunberg-merkel-backs-decarbonization-by-2050/#5e6a51df35de">have called for aggressive new carbon emissions reductions</a>, citing her movement. Millions of young people and adults are expected turn out again today and on September 27 in <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/9/20/20875523/youth-climate-strike-fridays-future-photos-global">strikes in more than 150 countries</a>. And she will address the UN again on Monday as part of the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/">UN Climate Action Summit</a>.</p>

<p>Fortunately, Thunberg is just one of many great minds helping us summon moral clarity to address the tricky problem of framing the climate crisis. That includes the writers David Wallace-Wells, George Monbiot, and Anand Giridharadas; the historian Jill Lepore; and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), among many others.</p>

<p>As we dump more carbon into the atmosphere and the planet cooks, their arguments about what we&rsquo;re up against &mdash; and why we must act now &mdash; are essential to cutting through the ties that keep us quiescent.</p>

<p>These thinkers have inspired us to overcome our own psychological<strong> </strong>roadblocks in facing the climate crisis.&nbsp;The words of writer <a href="https://www.biography.com/writer/james-baldwin">James Baldwin</a> are helpful here too: &ldquo;Not everything that is faced can be changed. But nothing can be changed until it is faced.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Drawing from these and other wells of wisdom, we&rsquo;ve put together 12 short answers to some of the most stymying questions to help you work through climate despair, cynicism, defeatism, and paralysis. We can&rsquo;t delay any more; it&rsquo;s past time for productive panic.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16281830/GettyImages_1148678677.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Greta Thunberg on March 7, 2019 in Stockholm, Sweden. | Michael Campanella/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Michael Campanella/Getty Images" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading">1) Isn’t it alarmist to talk about the potential extinction of the human species?</h2>
<p>It&rsquo;s true that we don&rsquo;t precisely know how this will all play out, but the evidence is overwhelming that the climate is already dangerously unstable, and extreme weather will be increasingly deadly to us and other <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/5/7/18531171/1-million-species-extinction-ipbes-un-biodiversity-crisis">species</a>. &ldquo;Our house is on fire,&rdquo; as Thunberg <a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/25/our-house-is-on-fire-greta-thunberg16-urges-leaders-to-act-on-climate?CMP=share_btn_tw&amp;__twitter_impression=true">put it</a>, &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t want your hope. &#8230; I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day.&rdquo;</p>

<p>We&rsquo;ve already emitted enough greenhouse gases to cause 1.1 degrees Celsius of heating, most of it in a single generation, as <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/2/22/18188562/climate-change-david-wallace-wells-the-uninhabitable-earth">David Wallace-Wells</a>, author of<em> The Uninhabitable Earth</em>, points out. All decisions from here on out are the differences between, say, 1.5, 1.51, 1.52 degrees Celsius of warming and up to 4 degrees.</p>

<p>Any of those scenarios will lead to an escalating burden of suffering for billions of humans yet unborn. And it&rsquo;s not only our distant descendants: Today&rsquo;s young people will grow up in a climate altered by your choices<strong> </strong>right now.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2) Isn’t it already too late to prevent catastrophe?</h2>
<p>Irreversible changes to the biosphere are already well underway. But every fraction of a degree of additional heating matters. And that means every iota of greenhouse gas we choose to put into the atmosphere adds to the legacy of burdens we choose to impose on future humans and other species.</p>

<p>So it&rsquo;s not too late to stop avoidable climate cooking.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/14339265/GettyImages_1128064053.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) announce the Green New Deal in front of the Capitol on February 7, 2019 in Washington, DC. | Alex Wong/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Alex Wong/Getty Images" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading">3) How do I deal with the fact that this is so depressing?</h2>
<p>It is daunting, yes, but it can also be exciting, and inspiring.</p>

<p>Humans living today have the opportunity and responsibility to play a role in saving civilization. This is the largest clear and present danger we&rsquo;ve ever been called on to face.</p>

<p>To use Ocasio-Cortez&rsquo;s framing, <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/green-new-deal-demands-world-war-ii-level-mobilization-against-climate-change">this is like mobilizing for World War II</a>, and everybody can play a role, from frontline heroics to the home front.<strong>  </strong></p>

<p>The difference is that this frontline is everywhere. And in this war, inaction is a choice to aid and abet the enemy and to continue accelerating toward the climate-catastrophe cliff. Imagine if &ldquo;the greatest generation&rdquo; had shirked on the war effort because WWII seemed depressing?</p>

<p>As <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/5/3/18307660/climate-change-green-new-deal-bill-mckibben-falter">writer and activist Bill McKibben</a> has said, the &ldquo;moral arc&rdquo; of the climate crisis is not long. We don&rsquo;t have time to wait, and every delay adds to the future suffering and compounding costs of mitigation.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/11699561/GettyImages_497724770.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A hydroelectric dam in Cachi, Cartago, 40 kilometers west San Jose, Costa Rica. The country is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2021." title="A hydroelectric dam in Cachi, Cartago, 40 kilometers west San Jose, Costa Rica. The country is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2021." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="A hydroelectric dam near San Jose, Costa Rica. The country is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2021. | Ezequiel Becerra/AFP/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Ezequiel Becerra/AFP/Getty Images" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading">4) Won’t it be impossible to get off fossil fuels? Emissions keep going up, and oil companies are too powerful.</h2>
<p>This seems to be less impossible in other nations. Germany recently had a <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/digest/renewables-generated-a-record-65-percent-of-germanys-electricity-last-week">record week</a> where 65 percent of its electricity came from renewables. Costa Rica has run on renewables for <a href="https://weather.com/news/news/2018-12-21-costa-rica-300-days-energy-renewable-sources">300 days</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/06/uk-renewable-energy-capacity-surpasses-fossil-fuels-for-first-time">More than 50 percent</a> of the UK&rsquo;s energy now comes from clean power.</p>

<p>It is true that coal and oil companies &mdash; the oilygarchy &mdash; wield tremendous power. But big business interests have been beaten by moral concerns in the past.</p>

<p>Historian <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2016/10/6/13062060/jill-lepore-interview-new-yorker-harvard-wonder-woman-presidential-debates">Jill Lepore</a> reminds us in her book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/These-Truths-History-United-States/dp/0393635244"><em>These Truths</em></a> that in the 1830s, 1 percent of Americans were slaveholders, and we then fought a Civil War in which morality beat that 1 percent. She also notes that you need a &ldquo;moral revolution&rdquo; to overcome &ldquo;moral blindness,&rdquo; and that&rsquo;s precisely the phase we need to enter now.</p>

<p>For the plutocrats who have made money by boiling the biosphere, the question is: Is it in anyone&rsquo;s real &ldquo;interest&rdquo; to wreck the future of your descendants?</p>

<p>And for the rest of us, it&rsquo;s time to insist that every fossil fuel company must adjust to the new moral and material reality. (Exxon started building oil rigs to withstand sea-level rise decades ago; they know this is real.)</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5) But I’m just one person. Do my choices even matter in a world of 7 billion people?</h2>
<p>This is misunderstanding the way the math works.</p>

<p>A useful image here is a pile of sand on one side of a weighing scale, at or near the tipping point it&rsquo;s easy to see that every tiny grain of sand contributes, and the same is true before that point also. Your tiny contribution &mdash; the optional flight, <a href="https://www.tuck.dartmouth.edu/news/articles/the-key-to-energy-conservation-priming-consumers-with-price">the round-the-clock air conditioning</a>, the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/23/18185446/climate-change-planet-based-diet-lancet-eat-commission">daily portion of meat</a> &mdash; can, arithmetically, add up to make a critical difference.</p>

<p>Where the weighing scale image fails is that there isn&rsquo;t just one tipping point, there&rsquo;s a spectrum, and the less GHGs we emit the nearer the safer end of the spectrum we&rsquo;ll be. Don&rsquo;t mindlessly commit sins of emission.</p>

<p>We usually have options where we can choose to have more or less climate impact. Every time we choose more and not less, we&rsquo;re imposing compounding burdens on others and on our descendants. Our choices will determine whether the future is &ldquo;merely grim, rather than apocalyptic,&rdquo; as Wallace-Wells <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/books/review-uninhabitable-earth-life-after-warming-david-wallace-wells.html">writes</a>.<strong> </strong></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">6) Why should I deprive myself of meat and air travel? It’s human nature to pursue short-term pleasure.</h2>
<p>This is repeatedly asserted, but it is historically ignorant, and easily refuted by the behavior of many of your recent ancestors. Most of our parents and grandparents incurred short-term costs and deprivations to help us. They scrimped to give us a shot at a better life, to put us through school, or they lined up to fight wars.</p>

<p>And many cultures have lived with an eye to the future, and have held nature (the &ldquo;all-mothering Earth&rdquo; to use an ancient Greek phrase) sacred. Abstractions like &ldquo;growth,&rdquo; and &ldquo;global economy&rdquo; distract from the fact that we&rsquo;re committing a form of collective suicide and ecocide.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">7) Isn’t it mainly a rich and powerful people’s problem? I’m not rich.</h2>
<p>Yes, the rich <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/1/16718844/green-consumers-climate-change">impose disproportionately much higher climate costs</a>, and they will need to make larger adjustments (no second yachts).</p>

<p>But almost everybody reading this is from a global and historical point of view &ldquo;rich.&rdquo; Our standard of living is better than 99 percent of all humans who&rsquo;ve ever lived.</p>

<p>Choosing less consumption doesn&rsquo;t mean living a miserable life. On the contrary, it can mean a more meaningful and moral life and one that doesn&rsquo;t destroy the opportunity for future humans to have decent lives. &nbsp;</p>

<p>That said, many of us do have an extra duty. As Genevieve Guenther, founder of EndClimateSilence,<strong> </strong>recently <a href="https://twitter.com/DoctorVive/status/1118853860817362945">tweeted</a>, &ldquo;People with power should not let themselves off the hook because they&rsquo;re mere &lsquo;individuals.&rsquo; They help produce and shift politics with their behavior: journalists, celebrities, professors, politicians, investors, influencers of all sorts have a unique responsibility.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The responsibility of the powerful, the privileged, and the fortunate, is to adjust how we live in the way that we all need to live to stop baking the biosphere. &nbsp;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">8) What is the one easy thing I can do?  </h2>
<p>That is a tempting, and seemingly smart, question. But that kind of thinking is part of what got us into this mess.</p>

<p>Reducing our personal and political carbon budget can&rsquo;t just be one thing you do that you feel let&rsquo;s you get back to business as usual. And it won&rsquo;t all be easy.</p>

<p>Instead, think of it as a lifetime practice of&nbsp;choosing the lowest carbon options, voting in climate-serious leaders, and pressuring the larger institutions (private and political) to hit zero emissions. This doesn&rsquo;t mean taking on everything at once. But you can influence the institutions you&rsquo;re connected to &mdash; your workplace, schools, and hospitals &mdash; that aren&rsquo;t doing enough.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">9) It’s obvious the US needs to pass serious federal climate legislation, but isn’t our political system broken? Leaders have short-term attention spans. And many are beholden to fossil fuel interests.</h2>
<p>This is all true. But as Vox&rsquo;s David Roberts has <a href="https://twitter.com/drvox/status/1097973357801140224">said</a>, &ldquo;We change politics, or we face catastrophe.&rdquo; That&rsquo;s the choice you make by abstaining from the effort to change politics.</p>

<p>The way to change politics, as Roberts <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/2/23/18228142/green-new-deal-critics">argues</a>, is with people power:</p>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-none is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>You develop a vision of politics that puts ordinary people at the center and gives them a tangible stake in the country&rsquo;s future, a share in its enormous wealth, and a role to play in its greater purpose. Then organize people around that vision and demand it from elected representatives. If elected representatives don&rsquo;t push for it, make sure they get primaried or defeated. If you want bipartisanship, get it because politicians in purple districts and states are scared to cross you, not because you led them to the sweet light of reason.</p>

<p>That&rsquo;s the only prospect I know of for climate action on a sufficient scale.</p>
</blockquote><h2 class="wp-block-heading">10) But won’t decarbonization cost too much? Won’t it hurt the global economy?</h2>
<p>The underlying &ldquo;logic&rdquo; of economists <a href="https://www.heritage.org/environment/commentary/the-green-new-deal-would-cost-trillions-and-make-not-dimes-worth-difference">who claim the clean energy transition will be too expensive</a> is basically an abstracted version of &ldquo;we can&rsquo;t afford to not burn our house.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Or it&rsquo;s as if President Franklin D. Roosevelt said in weighing World War II, &ldquo;it&rsquo;s cheaper, and will do less damage to the economy, to let the Nazis win.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Is there any benefit now that can outweigh the risk of your descendants suffering or not surviving? The only long-lasting cultures are those that don&rsquo;t eat their seed corn or choose to always put the present above what they know they&rsquo;ll need to survive in the future.</p>

<p>Don&rsquo;t forget, the numbers that economists use are all inaccurate (that&rsquo;s a large part of how we&rsquo;ve ended up in this mess, no price or value in any real market accounts for full pollution cleanup). And they&rsquo;re essentially even more meaningless in a climate-crashed world. Your stock certificates won&rsquo;t help when it&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/5/15/8612481/mad-max-review-fury-road"><em>Mad Max: Fury Road</em></a> out there.</p>

<p>Note that 34 central bankers (the most conservative of finance folks) <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2019/april/open-letter-on-climate-related-financial-risks">recently warned</a> of precisely that point, saying the financial sector must support the transition to a low-carbon economy and act to avoid &ldquo;a sudden collapse in asset prices.&rdquo;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16282206/GettyImages_1138460637.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Anand Giridharadas, author of Winners Take All, on April 9, in Washington, DC. | Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading">11) Aren’t you making what economists call “zero sum” mistakes (my consumption doesn’t limit yours, we can both gain in “win-win” trade)?</h2>
<p>This is a widely used but little understood invisible-hand-waving argument. The Earth is literally limited. Although economists like to use abstractions like &ldquo;utility&rdquo; and &ldquo;growth&rdquo; in their models, every real resource is limited (as is the ability of the Earth&rsquo;s biosphere to adjust to our &ldquo;unlimited&rdquo; pollution).</p>

<p>That means there are real trade-offs: Our use of corn to fatten cattle in rich countries means less corn can be used to feed people elsewhere. &nbsp;And at every point in time resource allocation is precisely zero-sum, by definition. (The future pie can change, and might very well shrink, but today&rsquo;s pie is a fixed size, and its slices are zero-sum. If you get more, others get less of it).</p>

<p>And there is a zero-sum problem that hasn&rsquo;t been faced up to. Our excess consumption reduces the availability of resources, like water and soil, in the future. Guardian columnist George Monbiot <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65usnzkhiR0">reports</a> that soil degradation rates mean we have only 60 years of harvests left under current practices.</p>

<p>As <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/9/5/17821522/anand-giridharadas-winner-take-all-ezra-klein-podcast">Anand Giridharadas</a>, author of <em>Winners Take All</em>, has explained, &ldquo;win-win&rdquo; growth often hides a very dark logic. In practice, it means that poverty can only be reduced if the rich also make money from it. In a world that recognizes the realities of resource limits, we have to make more moral trade-offs that don&rsquo;t favor the interests of today&rsquo;s rich and powerful.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">12) Surely the techies will invent something that saves us?</h2>
<p>Just because something is needed doesn&rsquo;t mean it will be invented. How long have we been working on a cure for the common cold? Many technical problems aren&rsquo;t like microchips (with consistent Moore&rsquo;s Law progress).</p>

<p>Tech like solar panels, batteries, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/14/17445622/direct-air-capture-air-to-fuels-carbon-dioxide-engineering">direct-air capture</a> are critical to the clean energy transition, but we also must limit our consumption. To do this the other way around is a foolish global Russian roulette gamble on our survival.</p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Listen to <em>Today, Explained</em></strong></h2>
<p>The vast majority of your plastic isn&rsquo;t being recycled. It might be time to consider lighting it on fire.</p>
<div class="spotify-embed"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3zIpSu5ZjirdwF6HDiN5vK" width="100%" height="152" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe></div>
<p>Looking for a quick way to keep up with the never-ending news cycle? Host Sean Rameswaram will guide you through the most important stories at the end of each day.</p>

<p>Subscribe on&nbsp;<a href="http://apple.co/30n765B"><strong>Apple Podcasts</strong></a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/3pXx5SXzXwJxnf4A5pWN2A"><strong>Spotify</strong></a>,&nbsp;<a href="http://bit.ly/TodayExplainedOvercast"><strong>Ove</strong></a><a href="https://overcast.fm/itunes1346207297/today-explained"><strong>r</strong></a><a href="http://bit.ly/TodayExplainedOvercast"><strong>cast</strong></a>, or wherever you listen to podcasts.</p>
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