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	<title type="text">Jeff Green | Vox</title>
	<subtitle type="text">Our world has too much noise and too little context. Vox helps you understand what matters.</subtitle>

	<updated>2017-08-09T17:00:08+00:00</updated>

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			<author>
				<name>Jeff Green</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[TV is moving to the internet faster than you probably think]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2017/8/9/16114622/tv-television-internet-connected-streaming-att-time-warner-spotify-randall-stephenson" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2017/8/9/16114622/tv-television-internet-connected-streaming-att-time-warner-spotify-randall-stephenson</id>
			<updated>2017-08-09T13:00:08-04:00</updated>
			<published>2017-08-09T13:00:02-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Culture" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Streaming" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="TV" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Since I became the CEO of a publicly traded company, I have yet to take a meeting with Wall Street where some version of this question isn&#8217;t asked: &#8220;When is traditional TV finally going to move over to connected TV?&#8221; I&#8217;m sometimes unsure of what question is really being asked &#8212; after all, it&#8217;s not [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="Say hello to the future cord-cutters of America: Juliana Sanchez, 5, and her brother, Francisco Sanchez Jr., 2, watch children&#039;s programming on YouTube on their parent&#039;s cellphones at their home. | Gary Reyes / Bay Area News Group / TNS via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Gary Reyes / Bay Area News Group / TNS via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9016721/cordcutters.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Say hello to the future cord-cutters of America: Juliana Sanchez, 5, and her brother, Francisco Sanchez Jr., 2, watch children's programming on YouTube on their parent's cellphones at their home. | Gary Reyes / Bay Area News Group / TNS via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since I became the CEO of a publicly traded company, I have yet to take a meeting with Wall Street where some version of this question isn&rsquo;t asked: &ldquo;When is traditional TV finally going to move over to connected TV?&rdquo;</p>

<p>I&rsquo;m sometimes unsure of what question is really being asked &mdash; after all, it&rsquo;s not hard to track the numbers on streaming, cord cutting, cord shaving and the increasing rate of cord-nevers.</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s happening.&nbsp;It&rsquo;s happening now. And it&rsquo;s happening fast.</p>

<p>After fielding that question so many times and answering differently a number of times, I now think the question is usually coming from a more personal point of view.&nbsp;Everyone loves TV, especially right now.&nbsp;In terms of content quality, television is at the top of its game.</p>

<p>And consumers love Netflix perhaps more than any TV company ever.&nbsp;Sure, people loved their legacy networks more in the &rsquo;40s and &rsquo;50s, but it&rsquo;s hard to imagine them being more cherished than Netflix.&nbsp;And Netflix is spending serious money to make such great content.&nbsp;They have to.&nbsp;They can&rsquo;t get it cheap from the studios anymore. Everyone is on their own. &nbsp;Amazon, CBS, Disney &mdash; everyone.&nbsp;And they&rsquo;re all trying to avoid giving content to YouTube &mdash; but that&rsquo;s a different story. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>Ultimately, TV will come to your house over an Ethernet cable, not a coaxial cable.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>Even though the content is so great, I think the question &mdash; &ldquo;When is TV moving to the internet?&rdquo;&mdash; also comes from a place of frustration. The number of ads per commercial break has gone up a lot in recent years. And watching TV with ads has become irritating without a DVR.&nbsp;The ad-to-content ratio is high, and ads aren&rsquo;t personalized like they can be on the web.&nbsp;Viewers wish everything could bypass what the chief product officer at Netflix calls &ldquo;the tyranny of the grid.&rdquo; And everyone wants to watch on-demand. &nbsp;</p>

<p>So I think the big question is something more like, &ldquo;When can everything be on-demand? When will that happen?&rdquo;</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s happening much faster than people think. Two of the best content aggregators in media today &mdash; Hulu and Spotify &mdash; are what I call tea-leaf companies.&nbsp;Watching what they do gives you a glimpse of the future. Of course, Spotify isn&rsquo;t a TV company, but TV can still learn from it. Hulu and Spotify both offer two types of subscriptions &mdash; one with nearly zero ads and another with ads. In both cases, the ad-funded option exposes the consumer to less than half the number of ads that you&rsquo;ll get in a typical hour of linear or cable TV.&nbsp;In both cases, about 75 percent of consumers are choosing the ad-funded model. Most consumers would rather see ads and pay less. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p>Keep in mind the current cable set-up costs the average consumer more than $100, plus lots of taxes and fees.&nbsp;These go up every year. The median U.S. household income is about $50,000.&nbsp;So Wall Street and Silicon Valley should remember that most people can&rsquo;t afford to pay for 15 subscriptions to get rid of ads. &nbsp;</p>

<p>But TV can&rsquo;t survive without ads.&nbsp;My cable TV costs more than $250 a month and comes with nearly all the channels. Of my 500 stations, however, 490 of them have lots of ads, and none are personalized to me.&nbsp;Very few consumers can afford to get rid of all the ads.&nbsp;And many content providers won&rsquo;t even offer the option.</p>

<p>Ultimately, TV will come to your house over an Ethernet cable, not a coaxial cable.&nbsp;All TV will be delivered over the internet, because it&rsquo;s better.&nbsp;Everything will be on-demand, like Netflix.&nbsp;Just like today, most of internet-fueled TV will still be ad-funded. &nbsp; There will be a few no-ad channels, just like Netflix and HBO are today.&nbsp;But most TV content will be ad-funded, and there will be far fewer ads than there are today.&nbsp;The ads will be tailored to you.&nbsp;As consumers, you&rsquo;ll actually like the ads, because they&rsquo;ll appeal to you about products you love or products you don&rsquo;t know about, but will love. These impressions will cost advertisers more per ad. Publishers and TV content creators will get a great cut of every ad dollar.&nbsp;And the global ad business will grow.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>The unsustainability of linear television has a happy ending for consumers and the entire TV ecosystem.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>The unsustainability of linear television has a happy ending for consumers and the entire TV ecosystem.&nbsp;Some players currently in linear television, especially distributors, will win.&nbsp;Some, of course, will lose.&nbsp;</p>

<p>I&rsquo;m not the only one who thinks the internet will power everything.&nbsp;Randy Stephenson, the CEO of AT&amp;T, has a vision that he has spent more than $100 billion to realize. That&rsquo;s a &ldquo;bet the farm&rdquo; number. Because of this, AT&amp;T has become the biggest tea leaf to watch. And even more so now, with the AT&amp;T and Time Warner deal.&nbsp;This is the biggest media deal in recent years, and most don&rsquo;t yet understand the gravity of its implications.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Stephenson changed the game last year when he bought Time Warner.&nbsp;He paid more than $80 billion for what may be the most premium content in TV, which includes Turner and HBO. His vision centers around three things: On-demand content, 5G technology (which will change the internet forever) and fully addressable, personally tailored ads.</p>

<p>These three things work together to make it easier to install a new customer.&nbsp;They are making the ultimate move in cable TV &mdash; offer everything on-demand and for less.&nbsp;The cheaper bundles will barely be reminiscent of current cable packages because every ad will be tailored to a household, and all content will be on-demand. 5G is mobile.&nbsp;Since Stephenson can get economies of scale, and AT&amp;T controls both the largest satellite TV company and the largest mobile network, he&rsquo;s hoping to gain market share during the transition.&nbsp;Cheaper and better usually does that.</p>

<p>Every media company in the world, from Comcast to Disney, is losing sleep over this deal.&nbsp;AT&amp;T was the first to make a huge bet, but it will not be the last.&nbsp;5G will be available by 2020.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Last week, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/groupm-north-america-ceo-brian-lesser-to-depart-for-at-t-role-1501852521">Randy Stephenson hired my friend Brian Lesser</a>, one of the most influential people in digital advertising.&nbsp;The pieces are coming together.</p>

<p>So the answer to the question, &ldquo;When will TV hit an inflection point?&rdquo; is: &ldquo;As fast as big media companies can move when they face an existential threat.&rdquo;&nbsp;I wouldn&rsquo;t underestimate how fast people can run when their life is on the line.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p>TV will be delivered over the internet.&nbsp; And just like everything on the internet, change happens fast.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/jefftgreen/"><em>Jeff Green</em></a><em> is the founder and CEO of </em><a href="https://www.thetradedesk.com"><em>The Trade Desk</em></a><em>, a demand-side platform that powers the desks of the world&rsquo;s most advanced buyers in online advertising. In 2015, Green and his co-founder Dave Pickles were named Entrepreneurs of the Year in the Greater Los Angeles region by Ernst &amp; Young. Reach him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/TheTradeDeskInc"><em>@TheTradeDeskInc</em></a><em>.</em></p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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