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	<title type="text">Jerusalem Demsas | Vox</title>
	<subtitle type="text">Our world has too much noise and too little context. Vox helps you understand what matters.</subtitle>

	<updated>2022-03-21T16:09:04+00:00</updated>

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				<name>Jerusalem Demsas</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The promise — and problem — of restorative justice]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/22979070/restorative-justice-forgiveness-limits-promise" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/22979070/restorative-justice-forgiveness-limits-promise</id>
			<updated>2022-03-21T12:09:04-04:00</updated>
			<published>2022-03-23T05:00:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Criminal Justice" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Features" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Part of our series on America&#8217;s struggle for forgiveness. Defining forgiveness is still a matter of great debate, but philosophers ground the concept in two things: Forgiveness requires one person to have caused another harm and for the victim to forswear revenge or bad feelings toward their transgressor. That leaves a lot more unsaid than [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p><em>Part of our series on </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/e/22747143"><em>America&rsquo;s struggle for forgiveness</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p>Defining forgiveness is <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/forgiveness/#ForgRespWron">still a matter of great debate</a>, but philosophers ground the concept in two things: Forgiveness requires one person to have caused another harm and for the victim to forswear revenge or bad feelings toward their transgressor.</p>

<p>That leaves a lot more unsaid than it clarifies. Is the purpose of forgiveness to get back to normal? What are the power relations inherent in asking for and granting forgiveness? Who has the authority to forgive? Most importantly, why is forgiveness necessary?</p>

<p>The rise of<strong> </strong>restorative justice programs has introduced the concept of forgiveness &mdash; usually kept far away from America&rsquo;s courtrooms &mdash; to the criminal justice system. While forgiveness is not the focus of these programs, its potential fills the air as victim, offender, and community members all meet in the same place.</p>

<p>These programs are alternatives to the traditional sentencing models and offer an opportunity for victims, offenders, and members of their respective communities to meet and, ideally, repair harm, answer lingering questions, and restore broken bonds.</p>

<p>But restorative justice&rsquo;s answers to forgiveness&rsquo;s thorniest questions and its relationship to the concept more broadly are up in the air. While forgiveness is widely seen as both virtuous and healing, the specter of forgiveness that hangs above restorative justice proceedings can be a hollow and fragile imitation of the real thing, and it carries with it the potential to reinforce cycles of violence.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What is restorative justice?</h2>
<p>There is no one definitive answer to this question. Restorative justice is a burgeoning philosophical framework that asks people to rethink the best way to respond to harmful behavior.<strong> </strong>Perhaps the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301701756_The_limits_of_restorative_justice">most expansive definition</a> comes from<strong> </strong>Griffith University criminologist Kathleen Daly, who calls restorative justice &ldquo;a set of ideals about justice that assumes a generous, empathetic, supportive, and rational human spirit.&rdquo;</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>Restorative justice is “a set of ideals about justice that assumes a generous, empathetic, supportive, and rational human spirit”</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>Criminologist Howard Zehr, the &ldquo;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2011/07/28/138791912/victims-confront-offenders-face-to-face">grandfather of restorative justice</a>,&rdquo; began his work in the 1970s<strong> </strong>for two main reasons: The harsh, punitive, and counterproductive ways that the criminal justice system often responds to offenders and the growing anger that victims are often entirely shut out of the criminal justice process.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&ldquo;We were really concerned that victims were not only being left out of the justice process, but they were re-traumatized by it. So we wanted to provide a better experience and more options for victims,&rdquo; Zehr <a href="https://emu.edu/now/crossroads/2015/07/20/howard-zehr-pioneer-of-restorative-justice/">explained</a> in an interview published by Eastern Mennonite University, where he founded the Center for Justice and Peacebuilding in 2015. &ldquo;Accountability is understanding the harm you&rsquo;ve caused and doing something to make it right.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Restorative justice has spurred the development of private and public programs within schools and universities that seek to apply restorative justice principles to conflicts that arise within these institutions. Even more crucially, there are restorative justice programs that seek to replace or reform existing practices within the criminal justice system; state-sanctioned programs now exist in the vast majority of American states.&nbsp;</p>
<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight"><h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://bit.ly/3CVVACs"><strong>America’s struggle for forgiveness</strong></a></h2><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23327120/landing01.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="A drawing of silhouetted figures in a mountainous landscape looking at a ladder leading up through a lit circle." title="A drawing of silhouetted figures in a mountainous landscape looking at a ladder leading up through a lit circle." data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Amanda Northrop/Vox" /></div>
<p>Restorative justice is not a fact-finding process and so it cannot in its current form replace the adversarial justice system, which seeks to determine whether the accused is guilty. Its role generally comes after someone&rsquo;s guilt has already been determined, either through a plea agreement or a trial. Then comes sentencing.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_education/resources/law_related_education_network/how_courts_work/sentencing/">sentencing process</a> generally follows this pattern: An offender is convicted of a crime, the judge sets a date for sentencing, and then the judge conducts a pre-sentence investigation to determine the appropriate sentence. According to the American Bar Association, this investigation &ldquo;may consider the defendant&rsquo;s prior criminal record, family situation, health, work record, and any other relevant factor.&rdquo; In the vast majority of cases, the sentence is solely up to the judge.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Restorative justice programs in operation throughout the country &mdash; some of which explicitly label themselves as such and some of which are clearly influenced by its principles &mdash;&nbsp;seek to upend the post-conviction process. The programs are run by different groups, some by state and local governments and others by independent or even for-profit organizations. Participation in these programs varies, with some states allowing these programs to exist as alternatives only for certain crimes or certain offenders (e.g., juveniles). These programs are generally opt-in for offenders in qualifying cases, and so, the vast majority of offenders still go through the traditional sentencing process.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23324463/AP19189728856963.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="California state Sen. Steve Glazer discusses a state-funded restorative justice program during a news conference in Sacramento, California, in 2019. Glazer’s measure, SB 678, which was co-authored by Assemblymember Susan Eggman, left, created a pilot program where the victims of crimes can deal directly with their offenders. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP" data-portal-copyright="Rich Pedroncelli/AP" />
<p>According to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3761531">research by Occidental College law professor Thalia Gonz&aacute;lez</a>, as of July 2020, &ldquo;The only states that have not codified restorative justice into criminal law are North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, South Carolina, and Wyoming.&rdquo; (Restorative justice programs can be found outside the US too, from <a href="https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/cj-jp/rj-jr/index.html">Canada</a> to <a href="https://restorativejustice.ie/">Ireland</a> to <a href="https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/rpp127.pdf">Australia.)</a></p>

<p>Impact Justice, a criminal justice reform group, lays out a <a href="https://rjdtoolkit.impactjustice.org/establish-a-foundation/restorative-justice/">simple model</a> for understanding restorative justice when it comes to criminal proceedings. Instead of asking what law was broken, who broke it, and what punishment is warranted &mdash; as our punitive system does &mdash; restorative justice asks who was harmed, what do they need, and whose obligation is it to meet those needs.</p>

<p>Typically, these programs involve what practitioners call a &ldquo;conference&rdquo; where the victim, offender, and community members (often friends or family of both parties) sit down. The offender will apologize or take responsibility for the harm they have caused and seek to make amends, and the victim is given the opportunity to ask questions and make clear all the ways the crime has impacted them and their community.&nbsp;</p>

<p>While these conferences vary widely, restorative justice facilitator sujatha baliga <a href="https://www.vox.com/first-person/2018/10/10/17953016/what-is-restorative-justice-definition-questions-circle">explained</a> for Vox what session results can look like:&nbsp;&ldquo;At the end of the process, which typically ends with one or more face-to-face sessions with the entire circle, a plan to meet the survivor&rsquo;s self-identified needs is made by consensus of everyone present. The responsible person is supported by family and community to do right by those they&rsquo;ve harmed. For example, if joining a sports team is a part of the responsible person&rsquo;s plan to help them stay out of trouble after school, people in his circle agree to take him to practice, or pay for the enrollment fees.&rdquo;</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s notable that the majority of these programs are for juvenile offenders; Gonzalez found that 91 laws in 33 jurisdictions are related to restorative justice programs aimed at minors, while just 42 laws in 15 jurisdictions are related to adult offenders. While the research is mixed, there is good evidence that<strong> </strong>programs focused on minors have been found to reduce recidivism.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>“Accountability is understanding the harm you’ve caused and doing something to make it right”</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>A 2017 <a href="https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/grants/250872.pdf">meta-analysis</a> of restorative justice programs, which looked at dozens of research projects and studies, found &ldquo;a moderate reduction in future delinquent behavior relative to more traditional juvenile court processing.&rdquo; The authors, however, were wary as to the reliability of these results since reductions were smaller for the &ldquo;more credible random assignment studies.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Encouragingly, one <a href="https://www.capolicylab.org/impacts-of-make-it-right-program-on-recidivism/">recently released paper</a> looked at offenders ages 13 to 17 that were randomly assigned to either go through a restorative justice program or the traditional process. After six months, the former group was rearrested at a rate 19 percentage points fewer than those in a control group prosecuted in the ordinary juvenile justice system.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What restorative justice can — and cannot — do for victims</h2>
<p>Restorative justice is perhaps overly optimistic about what it expects. It imagines a world where victims can be magnanimous about some of the most heinous transgressions, guilty offenders can be truly apologetic, and the broader community is positioned and able to help both parties.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333917203_Gendered_Violence_and_Restorative_Justice">According to University of New South Wales Sydney criminologist Julie Stubbs</a>, there is disagreement over whether restorative justice programs actually prioritize victims. Participants cite high levels of satisfaction,<strong> </strong>but it&rsquo;s unclear how much of this can be attributed specifically to the programs as opposed to selection effects (are the types of people ending up in<strong> </strong>restorative justice programs somehow different from people who aren&rsquo;t?), the effects of time, or support from their communities. She also notes that satisfaction has been conceptualized and measured inconsistently, making it hard to be definitive about victims&rsquo; experiences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Cymone Fuller, co-director of the Restorative Justice Project at Impact Justice, told Vox that victims often come to restorative justice conferences looking for answers: &ldquo;They might be asking for very practical things like, &lsquo;I want my car back,&rsquo; and then sometimes they really are looking for a fuller narrative for what happened to them.&rdquo;</p>

<p>One <a href="https://impactjustice.org/wp-content/uploads/CWW_RJreport.pdf">study</a> by Fuller&rsquo;s organization of 100 cases that were diverted to a restorative justice program in Alameda County, California, found that 91 percent of the victim participants who completed the survey would be willing to participate in another conference, and the same percentage would recommend the process to a friend.&nbsp;</p>

<p>When asked about the role of forgiveness in these encounters, Fuller argues that &ldquo;it&rsquo;s so important to disentangle this assumption or this requirement that people assume it&rsquo;s necessary for restorative justice to equal forgiveness. There is no expectation that at the end of this it becomes this huge moment of forgiveness.&rdquo;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23324482/GettyImages_1094080892.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="A letter written by a shoplifter is seen tacked to the wall at the Longmont Community Justice Partnership in Longmont, Colorado. The restorative justice program there includes apology letters from offenders. | Matt Jonas/Digital First Media/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Matt Jonas/Digital First Media/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images" />
<p>There are some practical problems with seeking forgiveness within a criminal justice system, even one purporting to be &ldquo;restorative.&rdquo;</p>

<p>While there may be those among us who can forgive an unrepentant offender &mdash; if forgiveness is even the right word for such an act &mdash; for most of us, forgiveness requires a sincere apology. There isn&rsquo;t extensive research on the question, but a set of <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.508.6207&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf">interviews in 1999</a> with minors who went through a restorative justice program indicated that while 61 percent of offenders said they really were sorry, just 27 percent of their victims thought the offenders were sincerely apologetic.</p>

<p>This could be because in some restorative justice programs, facilitators require participants to apologize. Victims can feel as though the apology is only happening because the perpetrator is being prompted to give it, not because they truly feel contrition.</p>

<p>Even with a sincere apology, the coercive environment extends to the victim as well.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Forgiving under government pressure is not really forgiveness, and it places further burdens on people already victimized,&rdquo; former Harvard Law School dean Martha Minow wrote in her book <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9780393081763"><em>When Should Law Forgive?</em></a></p>

<p>It&rsquo;s uncomfortable not to accept someone&rsquo;s apology, especially in front of other people. In most restorative justice settings, victims are not only in front of a facilitator but also the offender&rsquo;s family or friends and members of their community.<strong> </strong>Some research has <a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.834.4970&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf#:~:text=When%20transgressors%20apologize%2C%20victims%20of,but%20not%20actual%20experienced%20forgiveness.">shown</a> that in these communal conference situations, victims will say they forgive the offender simply to avoid the embarrassment of not doing so.</p>

<p>It is bad for victims to feel forced to accept their perpetrator&rsquo;s apology in and of itself, but the larger concern is that it could lead to further abuse.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>“There is no expectation that at the end of this it becomes this huge moment of forgiveness”</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>&ldquo;There&rsquo;s a danger about pressures to forgive, particularly on some victims more than others,&rdquo; York University philosophy professor Alice MacLachlan cautions. It&rsquo;s helpful to think about this in terms of intimate partner violence and the cycle of abuse, as that cycle includes reconciliation. Following a period of building tension, an incident will occur, perhaps physical violence, after which the perpetrator &mdash; overcome with guilt or simply scared that their partner will reveal the crime to the community or law enforcement &mdash; will attempt to reconcile. This reconciliation process often includes pleas for forgiveness and, if the victim relents, can bring the two closer together and lay the groundwork for continued abuse.</p>

<p>Restorative justice conferences could unwittingly play a role in this cycle of abuse by facilitating apologies and eliciting forgiveness, potentially laying the groundwork for further harm. As Stubbs <a href="https://deliverypdf.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=423027122029096003123017107108094085055056033007026070025022067117106123081088092030097010120030123038049123103088072005023108016054063082050067127080118122004111038062040121071001023005121025124005023067018112125122126080089100073089088066005074067&amp;EXT=pdf&amp;INDEX=TRUE">writes</a>, because &ldquo;domestic violence is commonly recurrent&rdquo; and the &ldquo;threat of violence may be ongoing and not reducible to discrete incidents,&rdquo; restorative justice programs that seek to find closure for a specific offense are inappropriately theorizing how this crime functions.</p>

<p>&ldquo;I came to this whole work<strong> </strong>out of concern about mass violence, genocide, atrocities, and seeing cycles of violence,&rdquo; Minow <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-laws-of-forgiveness">told the New Yorker&rsquo;s Isaac Chotiner</a> about her work on forgiveness in the criminal justice system. &ldquo;And the cycles of violence are perpetuated by resentments because of the way the last cycle of violence was resolved. I fear that that&rsquo;s where we are living right now, and that there are many justified resentments. And maybe some unjustified ones, but, because there&rsquo;s a perception that some people are treated better than others, we are laying the seeds for further conflict.&rdquo;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forgiveness and power</h2>
<p>At its root, forgiveness is about letting go of justified negative emotions and a desire for retribution. It is also about giving up a certain form of social power that victims hold.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23324381/GettyImages_182949796.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Martha Minow at Harvard University in 2013. | Paul Marotta/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Paul Marotta/Getty Images" />
<p>&ldquo;Expectations of forgiveness are raced and gendered,&rdquo; Minow argued on the Brennan Center for Justice&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/podcasts/when-should-law-forgive">podcast</a>. &ldquo;They&rsquo;re also about class. They&rsquo;re about power, but that&rsquo;s partly because forgiveness is one of the powers of the weak. To claim the ability to forgive &mdash; and let&rsquo;s be clear, to not forgive &mdash; is to claim the position of equality and dignity. And that&rsquo;s a power that we shouldn&rsquo;t actually ever take away from people.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Before forgiving, victims can try and gain necessary concessions from society or from offenders, but after, forgiveness implies that the victim has moved on and society has permission to do so as well. But a community getting over the impact of a specific crime without addressing the underlying systemic reasons why the wrong happened in the first place can just make things worse.</p>

<p>Put another way, with forgiveness, victims provide society a catharsis and relief from the tension of recognizing that a wrong must be rectified.</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s therefore not surprising that there is a notable tension in left-leaning political spaces between calls for leniency and restorative justice for criminal offenses, and calls for punitive measures against sexual abusers as the <a href="https://www.vox.com/metoo">Me Too movement</a> gained traction.</p>

<p>Georgetown University philosophy professor Alisa Carse has seen her students&rsquo; reluctance to bring restorative justice programs to their college campus for the purpose of resolving sexual misconduct cases. &ldquo;I was so surprised,&rdquo; she told Vox. &ldquo;But a lot of the students felt like it would convey that we think these crimes are less important.&rdquo;</p>

<p>&ldquo;We tend to think of forgiveness in very transactional, dyadic terms,&rdquo; she adds, &ldquo;but often it&rsquo;s the broader community that&rsquo;s playing a very important role both in bolstering the wronged party and in validating that what was done counted as a wrong.&rdquo;</p>

<p>If that is lacking, Carse argues, and you have a culture that valorizes forgiveness, it leads to isolation of the wronged party &mdash; creating a &ldquo;toxic&rdquo; situation.</p>

<p>At first glance, it can seem like a simple case of hypocrisy: liberals that support less punitive measures for criminals who are unlikely to hurt them, but more punitive measures for criminals when they view themselves as more likely to be potential victims. But perhaps there&rsquo;s more than that going on; it&rsquo;s not difficult to see how sexual assault cases are distinct. Unlike a murder or a robbery where society regularly recognizes a clear victim and clear aggressor, in&nbsp;cases of sexual misconduct, society has so often shown indifference &mdash; shrugging at the problem, as if adjudicating &ldquo;he said/she said&rdquo; is only possible when sexual violence isn&rsquo;t involved.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>Restorative justice asks who was harmed, what do they need, and whose obligation is it to meet those needs</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>However, as baliga <a href="https://www.vox.com/first-person/2018/10/10/17953016/what-is-restorative-justice-definition-questions-circle">wrote for Vox</a> in 2018, restorative justice has been shown to work in some sexual violence cases. In one promising example, baliga recounts a conference she helped facilitate between a young woman, Sofia, who had been assaulted by a classmate, Michael.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Sofia&rsquo;s transformation was breathtaking &mdash; she found her voice that day. And by the end of our time together, it felt like Michael had gained an understanding of consent. As we moved into creating a plan to repair the harm, Michael offered to clear up Sofia&rsquo;s reputation by posting on social media a public apology to her, which included the words &lsquo;she didn&rsquo;t lie.&rsquo; Michael also agreed with Sofia&rsquo;s request for him to spend a month of school at home to give Sofia space. Afterward, everyone except for Michael and Sofia hugged.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Baliga writes that Sofia&rsquo;s self-confidence returned to her in the weeks following the conference and that, following graduation, Michael wrote a research paper on sexual violence.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Restorative justice can, then, help restore both individuals to a community. But the expectations may be too high. In encouraging these interactions between offender and victim, restorative justice makes the potential for forgiveness much more real, which may play a part in why many victims of violent crime <a href="https://www.victimsweek.gc.ca/symp-colloque/past-passe/2009/presentation/pdfs/restorative_justice.pdf">reject the idea</a> of entering into a conference with their offender.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&ldquo;If we&rsquo;re going to think about forgiveness in terms of restorative justice, the only morally and politically careful way to do that is to recognize the legitimacy of the unforgiving victim,&rdquo; MacLachlan told Vox. &ldquo;Not forgiving is a legitimate response to being seriously harmed.&rdquo;</p>
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				<name>Jerusalem Demsas</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Tax the land]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22951092/land-tax-housing-crisis" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22951092/land-tax-housing-crisis</id>
			<updated>2022-03-04T10:31:50-05:00</updated>
			<published>2022-03-04T10:10:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Housing" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[A six-word phrase keeps popping up on my Twitter feed: &#8220;Land value tax would solve this.&#8221; In response to the inefficient use of land as parking lots. As a policy to help fund a universal basic income. And even (jokingly) as a prescription for the rise of virginity in young men. The big question land [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="A parking lot in Brooklyn is surrounded by buildings in 2016. A large condominium building has since been built where the parking lot stood. | Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23286720/GettyImages_503670550.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	A parking lot in Brooklyn is surrounded by buildings in 2016. A large condominium building has since been built where the parking lot stood. | Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p>A six-word phrase keeps popping up on my Twitter feed: &ldquo;Land value tax would solve this.&rdquo;</p>

<p>In response to the <a href="https://twitter.com/TheOmniZaddy/status/1483716744904597505?s=20&amp;t=MLLnGnf49t8KEogB7h9wKg">inefficient use of land as parking lots</a>. As a policy to <a href="https://twitter.com/MaxGhenis/status/1439969420726587392?s=20&amp;t=ycSBip5t_tN2bQ8kCD3ZzA">help fund a universal basic income</a>. And even (jokingly) as a prescription for the <a href="https://twitter.com/mnolangray/status/1469936031885500416?s=20&amp;t=MLLnGnf49t8KEogB7h9wKg">rise of virginity in young men</a>.</p>

<p>The big question land value taxes help answer is: How can a government raise funds without distorting choices and possibly leaving people worse off? If you tax income, it provides a disincentive to work. If you tax property, it provides a disincentive to improve the physical buildings on top of the land. Sometimes the tax is intentionally disincentivizing an activity &mdash;&nbsp;think carbon taxes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or so-called &ldquo;sin taxes&rdquo; on tobacco. But there are also taxes governments want to levy to pay for valuable services without changing behaviors too much (or at all). <strong> </strong></p>

<p>One of the most straightforward solutions a land tax offers is to America&rsquo;s housing crisis. That crisis is caused, in part, by the failure to appropriately use valuable in-demand land for its best purpose. Millions of people want to live in New York City, Los Angeles, Washington, DC, or Seattle, but local tax regimes actually punish people for investing in their property. When people improve their property &mdash; either by adding a new room or building an entirely new structure like a multi-story apartment building, they&rsquo;ll pay higher property taxes.<strong> </strong></p>

<p>But this isn&rsquo;t just a big-city problem. In small towns, vacant lots contribute to decline &mdash; and if there&rsquo;s no valuable structure on a property, its delinquent landlords likely only pay a nominal property tax. This both lowers tax revenue and hurts neighborhood quality for everyone else.</p>

<p>Here&rsquo;s where a land value tax can come into play.</p>

<p>Taxing land value means separating out what land is worth without any of the improvements sitting on it (like homes or industrial plants). Most Americans are familiar with property taxes that tax the value of their homes and the land they sit on as one. As New York University economist Arpit Gupta <a href="https://arpitrage.substack.com/p/land-value-estimation?utm_source=url">explains</a>, part of what makes land taxes so attractive is that &ldquo;there should be no economic inefficiency&rdquo; if you are able to tax &ldquo;true land rents.&rdquo;</p>

<p>A land tax can&rsquo;t disincentivize anything &mdash; land will continue to exist<strong> </strong>regardless of any taxation scheme.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Land doesn&rsquo;t move,&rdquo; University of Illinois economist David Albouy explained. &ldquo;It doesn&rsquo;t disappear &mdash; so you can lower taxes on things that do go away.&rdquo;</p>

<p>As Jeff Spross explained in 2015 for <a href="https://theweek.com/articles/553242/praise-land-value-tax">The Week</a><em>:</em></p>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-none is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>The key thing to realize about a land value tax (or LVT for short) is that nothing you do can affect it. &#8230; This is why economists&nbsp;<a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/04/land-value-tax">love it</a>. By definition, an LVT only captures &ldquo;rent&rdquo; &mdash; in economics-speak, income you earn by happenstance or luck rather than by actually creating new wealth.</p>

<p>Your tax burden under an LVT goes up only if the value of the land itself &mdash; the one thing you have no control over &mdash; also goes up.&nbsp;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The LVT also has an appealing underlying moral framework: The luck to own a piece of land that happens to appreciate &mdash; say, you bought a house in San Francisco before the tech boom<strong> </strong>&mdash; should not come with it the ability to extract rents without providing value.</p>

<p>In other words, since people who own land aren&rsquo;t actually responsible for it increasing or decreasing in value, it&rsquo;s pretty absurd that they get to accrue all the benefits of owning a piece of land without having to do any work for it.</p>

<p>I want to again distinguish this idea from adding value to the land by building a business, farming the land, extracting natural resources, or a myriad other ways people use land. These things are obviously work, which is exactly why moving away from a property tax system &mdash; which taxes things people actually have control over &mdash; to a land tax system could be so efficient.</p>

<p>At this point, &ldquo;land value tax could solve this&rdquo; has become a meme in niche online communities, with its strongest adherents believing that one simple policy has the potential to solve some of the nation&rsquo;s biggest problems &mdash; including our housing crisis.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">America’s housing crisis</h2>
<p>At its core, America&rsquo;s housing crisis is about the nation&rsquo;s perennial failure to build enough homes. As of last year, <a href="https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210507-housing-supply">Freddie Mac estimated</a> that the country needs an additional 3.8 million homes to meet demand.</p>

<p>Because of our persistent failure to build, prices have skyrocketed. People are moving out of their parents&rsquo; homes, starting families, moving to new jobs and competing over a scarce number of housing units. In a healthy market, this rising price signal would push developers to create more homes and prices would fall (or at least stop rising).</p>

<p>The American housing market is anything but healthy.</p>

<p>As a result of various rules and regulations mostly set at the local level, developers <em>can&rsquo;t</em> simply build and provide more homes. Instead, laws that make it illegal to develop land more intensely &mdash; that is, build multiple homes on a single lot of land like a duplex or an apartment building or build smaller single-family homes &mdash; keep prices high.</p>

<p>Land and property owners are often the most vocal opponents of liberalizing land use laws. Homeowners trend older and have stronger preferences for stability as well as negative attitudes towards renters and apartment buildings. Local governments, which have been granted near unchecked authority by state governments, are entirely captured by homeowners.</p>

<p>Boston University researchers Katherine Einstein, David M. Glick, and Maxwell Palmer&nbsp;<a href="http://sites.bu.edu/kleinstein/research/">looked at planning board and zoning meetings</a>&nbsp;in nearly 100 Massachusetts cities and towns and found that meeting participants were disproportionately homeowners. Participants were consistently likelier to oppose new housing in their communities.</p>

<p>If you add a room for your father-in-law who is moving in with you to help raise your kids or add a home office during a global pandemic, you could receive a penalty in the form of higher taxes since you have made your property more valuable. And if someone turns their garage into an apartment, providing an affordable housing option for their community, they pay higher property taxes than similarly situated neighbors who don&rsquo;t add housing options to their land.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">So how could a land value tax help fix this?</h2>
<p>Under a land value tax system, proponents say property owners would be clamoring to be allowed to develop their land more intensely &mdash; leading to more homes being built.</p>

<p>Here&rsquo;s the theory:<strong> </strong>Taxing land reduces the profit that comes from just owning a piece of property. Instead, you are incentivized to put that land to work. Let&rsquo;s take a plot of land near Times Square. That land is so valuable, basically anything you do with it will turn a massive profit so no need to develop it for its most valuable use.</p>

<p>However, if a land tax were to be levied, the owner of that land would need to make sure that the property on that land was actually profitable since the government is taxing away some or all of the land rents that could be charged.</p>

<p>In a 2015 <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/05/the-land-tax-what-happened-to-towns-like-fairhope-alabama-that-tried-georgism.html">Slate</a> article, Henry Grabar illustrated this point well, pointing to the case of a parking lot charging drivers $40 per day for parking and accruing under $10,000 in property taxes. That parking lot, Grabar writes, sits next to a seven-story building that requires more than a quarter of a million in taxes annually.</p>

<p>&ldquo;It turns NIMBYs into YIMBYs,&rdquo; explained economist Noah Smith, who has <a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-to-sell-georgism-to-the-middle">written about land taxes</a>. &ldquo;You leverage the same toxic local politics that are now creating NIMBY-ism, you leverage for YIMBY-ism because now you have people <em>wanting</em> to build stuff.&rdquo;</p>

<p>In Allentown, Pennsylvania, the system worked! According to a 2019 <a href="https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2019/3/6/non-glamorous-gains-the-pennsylvania-land-tax-experiment">Strong Towns</a> article, after the city adopted an LVT (through a <a href="https://www.lincolninst.edu/sites/default/files/pubfiles/1275_hughes_final.pdf">split-rate system</a> that still kept some property taxes in place) in 1996, &ldquo;construction returned to the city: the number of taxable building permits surged past neighboring Bethlehem, market investment returned and capital improvement reappeared in city budgets. &#8230; The losers in this trade were absentee owners of vacant lots, who had to shoulder much more of the burden.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) is quoted touting the benefits of the tax: &ldquo;The number of building permits in Allentown has increased by 32 percent from before we had a land tax.&rdquo;</p>

<p>So if this change to our taxation system is so simple, why don&rsquo;t more cities implement it? Well, property tax reform is the third rail of American politics. In California for instance, as Conor Dougherty explained for the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/business/economy/california-property-tax-proposition-15.html">New York Times</a>, &ldquo;In 1978, a Los Angeles businessman named Howard Jarvis led an insurgent campaign to pass Proposition 13, a ballot measure that limited California property taxes and inspired a nationwide&nbsp;<a href="https://calmatters.org/politics/2020/10/prop-13-family-tree/">tax revolt</a>. The law has been considered sacrosanct ever since.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But beyond the political issues, there are also technical concerns: Firstly, valuing land separately from the improvements to it is not so simple, though <a href="https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/does-georgism-work-part-3-can-unimproved?utm_source=url">proponents argue it can be done</a>. Secondly, implementing a land tax right now, while fair in the medium and long term, <a href="http://timothyblee.com/2014/03/03/the-case-against-land-value-taxes/">could feel drastically unfair in the short term to property owners</a> who paid a premium for their lots because of the value of the land only to see it depreciate in value as a new tax gets implemented.</p>

<p>So why is this meme becoming so popular (at least among some online communities)? Lars Doucet, a prominent land value tax proponent, explains that a big part of the reason is that for a long time the automobile made sprawling suburban development possible. That meant people could still access valuable labor markets even if they couldn&rsquo;t afford to live near their jobs (as long as they were willing to suffer long commutes, that is).</p>

<p>&ldquo;Now we&rsquo;ve run out of suburbs,&rdquo; Doucet argued. &ldquo;We can&rsquo;t push any further through expansion.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Remote work is a new development, which could buy us some more time, since it <a href="https://www.vox.com/22839563/remote-work-climate-change-house-prices-cities">could allow many people to live even further away</a> from city centers, but as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/30/rent-inflation-housing/">rents skyrocket</a>, people are desperately searching for radical solutions to America&rsquo;s housing crisis.</p>
						]]>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jerusalem Demsas</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[What happens when Americans stay in the same house forever?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/22939038/rents-rising-home-prices-americans-moving-residential-stagnation-stuck-mobility-freedom" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/22939038/rents-rising-home-prices-americans-moving-residential-stagnation-stuck-mobility-freedom</id>
			<updated>2022-03-11T11:21:43-05:00</updated>
			<published>2022-02-24T10:10:07-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[At the heart of America is a packed bag. &#8220;Go west, young man, and grow up with the country,&#8221; newspaper editor Horace Greeley once exclaimed. A proponent of westward expansion, Greeley rightfully struck at the heart of a particularly American brand of freedom: the ability to get the hell out of dodge. And while freedom [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p>At the heart of America is a packed bag.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Go west, young man, and grow up with the country,&rdquo; newspaper editor Horace Greeley once exclaimed. A proponent of westward expansion, Greeley rightfully struck at the heart of a particularly American brand of<strong> </strong>freedom: the ability to get the hell out of dodge.</p>

<p>And while freedom of movement has never been equally distributed, potentially the most defining migration the nation has ever seen was the <a href="https://www.archives.gov/research/african-americans/migrations/great-migration">Great Migration</a>, when millions of Black Americans fled the South, Jim Crow the wind at their backs.</p>

<p>Isabel Wilkerson, the historian and author of <em>The Warmth of Other Suns,</em> captured the essence of this mass movement: &ldquo;They did what human beings looking for freedom, throughout history, have often done. They left.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But what happens when leaving is no longer an option? In the US, that&rsquo;s what we&rsquo;re witnessing right now: &ldquo;Americans, it seems, are finding themselves increasingly locked into places that they wish to escape,&rdquo; two psychologists grimly proclaim in a new paper studying the cultural effects of residential stagnation. Study authors Nicholas Buttrick and Shigehiro Oishi <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2332649217728374">cite</a> <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2015/demo/p70-140.html">research</a> showing that when you compare today&rsquo;s Americans to people in the 1970s, people who said they intended to move from a place are 45 percent less likely to have actually done so.</p>

<p>The paper finds that as residential mobility has gone down, so have &ldquo;levels of happiness, fairness, and trust among Americans.&rdquo;</p>

<p>How could declining mobility lead to these changes? Buttrick and Oishi explain that moving to a new place severs social bonds, and in a new town, far from home, newcomers are forced to define themselves with &ldquo;context-free personality traits (i.e., &lsquo;I am hardworking&rsquo; or &lsquo;I am intelligent&rsquo;)&rdquo; rather than by their relationships to locals like they might in their hometown (i.e., &ldquo;my sister owns the butcher shop downtown&rdquo;).</p>

<p>Importantly, all that researchers have found are correlations: No one has yet established that declining mobility <em>causes</em> any psychological changes. And another caveat &mdash; while some <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/1540-6040.00016">data exists</a> related to how much Americans were moving in the 1700s and 1800s, it is only since 1948 that the researchers have a &ldquo;reliable annual rate of residential mobility &#8230; mak[ing] it difficult to draw strong conclusions regarding the cultural effects of residential mobility in the longer term.&rdquo;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23254644/Screen_Shot_2022_02_18_at_3.53.05_AM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="From &lt;a href=&quot;https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2022-13889-006.html&quot;&gt;“The Cultural Dynamics of Declining Residential Mobility”&lt;/a&gt; by Buttrick and Oishi" />
<p>Another note of caution is that residential mobility is not independent of economic growth, settlement patterns, religiosity, and more. In other words,<strong> </strong>it could be something else that is driving some or all of this correlation.</p>

<p>The authors are aware of this and note that while things like unemployment and GDP growth have cyclical patterns, mobility rates have been declining steadily since 1948 through booms and busts alike.</p>

<p>And the psychologists&rsquo; work builds on a body of economic and political science literature that has raised the alarm for decades about declining interstate mobility and its negative effects on financial and personal freedom.<strong> </strong></p>

<p>Buttrick and Oishi delineate the cultural markers of a mobile society (&ldquo;individualism, optimism, and tolerance&rdquo;) and a stable society (&ldquo;security, and a strong sense of the difference between ingroups and outgroups&rdquo;). This growing shift toward the latter could explain much of what has happened to America&rsquo;s political system in recent decades.</p>
<iframe src="https://embed.podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why-its-so-hard-to-move-in-america/id1042433083?i=1000553359754&amp;itsct=podcast_box_player&amp;itscg=30200&amp;ls=1&amp;theme=auto" height="175px" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay *; encrypted-media *;"></iframe><h2 class="wp-block-heading">What happens when people want to move but can’t</h2>
<p>&ldquo;Unfathomable&rdquo; &mdash; that&rsquo;s the word Buttrick and Oishi use to describe the rate at which Americans in the 1700s and 1800s exchanged communities:</p>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-none is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>Throughout the 19th century, as many as 40% of Americans may have moved year over year. For example, in one Illinois county, only about 20% of households living there in 1840 stayed to 1850; in a different Ohio city, only 7% of people voted in both the 1850 and 1860 elections in the same district; in the Jamaica Plain neighborhood of Boston, only half of household heads enumerated in 1880 could be found in 1890; and in New York City, &ldquo;Moving Day,&rdquo; the First of May, was an unofficial city holiday (Fischer, 2002).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Today, that&rsquo;s not the case.<strong> </strong>While the majority of Americans are happy where they are &mdash; according to Gallup survey data in 2016, 74 percent of Americans rated their current residence as ideal &mdash; this growing bloc of &ldquo;trapped&rdquo; or <a href="https://openyls.law.yale.edu/bitstream/handle/20.500.13051/10308/DavidSchleicherStuckTheLa.pdf?sequence=2">&ldquo;stuck&rdquo;</a> communities has concerning cultural effects.</p>

<p>Buttrick and Oishi&rsquo;s big takeaway: When people move less, it affects culture. Less dynamism, increased aversion to risk, suspicion of outsiders, cynicism, unhappiness, and &ldquo;people who feel less free to live their social lives as they see fit.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Looking at a survey of 16,000 Americans, the authors find that people who want to move but remain at the same address the following year are more likely to disagree that &ldquo;hard work can help a person get ahead,&rdquo; even when controlling for a bunch of factors like socioeconomic status, health, age, race, and more.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Wanting to move but being unable to leave leads people to wonder about whether their other efforts in life will be rewarded,&rdquo; the researchers write.</p>

<p>Americans have historically been defined by our willingness to move for greener pastures, and, despite some pessimistic narratives, <a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/11/america-is-friendlier-to-foreigners-than-headlines-suggest">Americans are pretty welcoming to outsiders</a>. Buttrick and Oishi cite research showing that Americans are very <a href="https://www.hofstede-insights.com/country-comparison/the-usa/">individualistic</a>, <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-010-9713-5">very trusting of strangers</a>, <a href="https://www.hofstede-insights.com/country-comparison/the-usa/">egalitarian</a>, optimistic, and risk-taking, and &ldquo;to a degree unmatched by other nations&rdquo; believe that <a href="https://scholarlypublishingcollective.org/psup/utopian-studies/article/28/2/231/197652/Practical-Utopias-America-as-Techno-Fix-Nation">technology can solve big problems</a>. And Americans are &ldquo;unusually likely to believe that all people <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/466029a">everywhere are essentially the same</a>.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But, the authors argue, much of that has been changing in parallel with declining interstate mobility. We could be left with much more stable communities that are much less trusting of outsiders. To put a finer point on it, if you&rsquo;re stuck in a place where you don&rsquo;t want to be, it has broader implications for your ability to pick your social networks. You are stuck with the family and friends that you happen to be near.</p>

<p>That, in turn, leads to a lot more loyalty toward one&rsquo;s in-group. If it&rsquo;s extremely difficult to make new friends, it&rsquo;s extremely costly to lose any of the ones you have or alienate them. This increased importance of in-group relations can be accompanied by decreased openness and increased xenophobia, because newcomers simply cannot draw on a reservoir of reputation that they have been cultivating for decades.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The policies helping kill the American dream</h2>
<p>So why is all this happening? What is keeping Americans stuck? Even as localized recessions (that would have previously sent people running for economic opportunity elsewhere) hit, <a href="https://economics.mit.edu/files/11560">people stay put</a>. Even as wage premiums for college degrees and higher-paying jobs concentrate in a handful of cities, low-income workers <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w17167">remain in stagnating pockets of the country</a>.</p>

<p>The authors don&rsquo;t identify any causal factors.</p>

<p>But<strong> </strong>I, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/12/opinion/biden-infrastructure-zoning.html">and</a> <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388">many</a> <a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-yimbys-are-starting-to-win-a?utm_source=url">economists</a>, argue that this is because of the walls of red tape that states have put up. Specifically, two types of regulations: zoning restrictions on how land can be used, and occupational licensing requirements.</p>

<p>The former severely limits the supply of housing, particularly in in-demand labor markets, driving up the price of housing. New research shows that for many people, moving to many economically flourishing cities could mean taking a financial hit, as the<a href="https://www2.census.gov/ces/wp/2021/CES-WP-21-32.pdf"> increased cost of housing dwarfs a substantially larger salary</a>.</p>

<p>And the latter can discourage people from moving to states where regulations make it costly to keep doing their jobs. According to the <a href="https://capturedeconomy.com/occupational-licensing/#:~:text=Today%2C%20around%2025%20percent%20of,from%2010%20percent%20in%201970.&amp;text=Although%20these%20regulations%20are%20justified,improves%20consumer%20welfare%20is%20weak.">Captured Economy</a> project at the centrist Niskanen Center, &ldquo;today, around 25 percent of American workers need a state license to do their job &mdash; up from 10 percent in 1970.&rdquo; These regulations make it really hard for workers like cosmetologists or contractors to move to different states due to the financial and time costs of getting a new license. According to the libertarian <a href="https://ij.org/report/license-to-work-2/">Institute for Justice</a> (IJ), &ldquo;on average these laws require nearly a year of education and experience, one exam, and over $260 in fees.&rdquo;</p>

<p>And while these laws are enacted under the guise of consumer protection, as IJ finds, there are many ridiculous discrepancies that show that reasoning to be a <a href="https://ij.org/report/license-to-work-2/">farce</a>: &ldquo;[I]n most states, it takes 12 times longer to get a license to cut hair as a cosmetologist than to get a license to administer life-saving care as an emergency medical technician.&rdquo;</p>

<p>And it&rsquo;s not just the housing costs and occupational licenses that are reducing interstate mobility. As <a href="https://openyls.law.yale.edu/bitstream/handle/20.500.13051/10308/DavidSchleicherStuckTheLa.pdf?sequence=2">Yale Law professor David Schleicher details</a>, &ldquo;differing eligibility standards for public benefits, public employee pensions, homeownership tax subsidies, state and local tax laws, and even basic property law doctrines&rdquo; make it hard to move <em>from</em> declining regions as well.</p>

<p>With all of these regulations piling up and increases in the opportunity costs of moving, interstate mobility could continue to decline and the US might reach a damning future where to move, you have to be rich.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Stability has benefits, too — America just needs to better balance them with the benefits of mobility</h2>
<p>Having a preference for stability isn&rsquo;t bad. In fact, most people, even the individualistic, age into stability. Perhaps when they have children and want to stay put for them to attend school, or when they grow older and change that would have once felt exciting now feels alienating.</p>

<p>Residential stability also provides important bonds. Buttrick and Oishi theorize that &ldquo;people who have just moved to a place may be less interested in coming together for long-term action and may be less interested in investing in their communities.&rdquo; So while movers may be optimistic, idealistic, and willing to make friends with new people, the non-movers may promote the type of social cohesion that makes that all possible.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Areas with more residential mobility tend to have lower levels of social capital,&rdquo; Buttrick told me. &ldquo;If you just get to a place, it&rsquo;s really hard to embed yourself in a community.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But it doesn&rsquo;t have to be that way.</p>

<p>&ldquo;There are some American institutions that are relatively good at getting people integrated into a community,&rdquo; he added. For example, &ldquo;megachurches are one of these cultural responses to residential mobility &mdash; they&rsquo;re big, they don&rsquo;t take a lot of time, and they get you into a deep community quickly without having to incur a lot of costs.&rdquo;</p>

<p>At the end of the day, it&rsquo;s about balance. It&rsquo;s not that everyone should be moving all the time, but that they should always have the option.</p>

<p>If the psychologists are right and individualists overwhelmingly want to leave small towns and rural America, it <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3321790">could severely unbalance the country</a>. And not just unbalance the country because the nonconformists have all fled for the superstar cities, but because it&rsquo;s often only the better-off mavericks who are able to leave. This type of economic residential segregation can have <a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/129/4/1553/1853754">serious consequences for the children who grow up in disinvested communities</a>.</p>

<p>While stability can sound great in theory, what it means in practice is different depending on the circumstances. A stable white-picket-fence suburb could be great for some people, but if &ldquo;stable&rdquo; means trapped in a high-poverty neighborhood, that&rsquo;s a policy failure. <a href="https://www.asanet.org/sites/default/files/attach/journals/jul18srefeature.pdf">Research</a> has found that while declining interstate mobility may be due to changing preferences for white Americans, Black Americans are increasingly unable to move when they expect to.</p>

<p>And there&rsquo;s an asymmetry &mdash; while being forced to stay somewhere is almost entirely negative, being forced to move can actually benefit those who relocate. One recent <a href="https://eml.berkeley.edu/~enakamura/papers/giftofmoving.pdf">study</a> by UC Berkeley&rsquo;s Emi Nakamura and J&oacute;n Steinsson and Norwegian School of Economics&rsquo; J&oacute;sef Sigurdsson, looked at what happened to households that were forced to move after their town was covered with lava.</p>

<p>In 1973 a volcano erupted, causing an Icelandic town&rsquo;s inhabitants to be evacuated &mdash; and while many people returned if their homes were still standing, for those whose homes were destroyed, that was significantly less likely. The authors found that children whose families were forced to leave following the destruction of their homes were more likely to have a &ldquo;large <em>increase</em> in long-run labor earnings and education &#8230; specifically, we estimate a causal effect of moving of $27,000 per year, or close to a doubling of the average earnings of those whose homes were not destroyed.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Of course the trauma and shock of having to leave your home behind and the associated economic costs with that are borne heavily by the adults in this situation. Nevertheless, this natural experiment reveals that, on net, the costs of moving, even under traumatic conditions, might be compensated for.</p>

<p>No one is suggesting forcibly moving Americans via strategic lava flows. But there are costs to taking the steps that would allow more mobility: for example, loosening zoning restrictions leads to increased construction and neighborhood change in the places that people want to move to. These costs are unequivocally worth it.</p>

<p>America is aging and biasing our political and cultural institutions against risk-taking, new ideas, and new groups of people. Further tilting the scales against openness and dynamism could mean dwindling social and economic mobility and generations of Americans growing up in a country where freedom of movement belongs only to the rich.</p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jerusalem Demsas</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Is the FDA too cautious?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/22893078/fda-covid-19-too-cautious-tests-vaccines" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/22893078/fda-covid-19-too-cautious-tests-vaccines</id>
			<updated>2022-02-09T17:52:37-05:00</updated>
			<published>2022-02-10T07:10:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Covid-19" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health Care" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Public Health" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Nobody is happy with the FDA. Almost a year ago, Vox&#8217;s Dylan Scott reported that the Food and Drug Administration had been &#8220;demoralized and tarnished during the Trump era.&#8221; Things haven&#8217;t gotten much better for the embattled agency in the months since. In December, epidemiologist Michael Mina detailed the &#8220;frustrating secret&#8221; behind why it was [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="The FDA logo amid protective face masks, seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland, on January 11, 2022. | Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23226333/GettyImages_1237662188.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	The FDA logo amid protective face masks, seen in this illustration photo taken in Krakow, Poland, on January 11, 2022. | Jakub Porzycki/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Nobody is happy with the FDA.</p>

<p>Almost a year ago, Vox&rsquo;s Dylan Scott <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/2/8/22272298/fda-covid-19-vaccine-janet-woodcock-josh-sharfstein">reported</a> that the Food and Drug Administration had been &ldquo;demoralized and tarnished during the Trump era.&rdquo; Things haven&rsquo;t gotten much better for the embattled agency in the months since.</p>

<p>In December, epidemiologist Michael Mina <a href="https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1473515522461511682?s=20">detailed</a> the &ldquo;frustrating secret&rdquo; behind why it was so difficult to get rapid tests: The FDA&rsquo;s &ldquo;onerous but remarkably useless check boxes,&rdquo; he wrote, were slowing the approval for different at-home options. Mina explained that the FDA was holding fast to processes that didn&rsquo;t allow it to consider &ldquo;the ample data around the world&rdquo; and was forcing companies to compare rapid tests to lab-run PCRs, preventing hundreds of millions of tests from being purchased by Americans.</p>

<p>If this type of problem seems familiar, it&rsquo;s because it is. Throughout the pandemic, the FDA has faced criticism about its seeming inability to adapt its processes for an emergency.</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s the sort of tightrope walk you can only watch with your face behind your hands. Act too quickly, miss something, and lives hang in the balance, not to mention Americans&rsquo; dwindling faith in institutions. But it&rsquo;s just as dangerous to act too slowly when approving needed treatments or tests, to be inflexible in the face of new evidence &mdash; lives hang in the balance if you do nothing, as well. And time and again, the FDA seems to<strong> </strong>have chosen to fear the dangers of action over inaction.</p>

<p>In a statement, FDA spokesperson Michael Felberbaum defended the organization&rsquo;s pandemic response, arguing it &rdquo;made the most appropriate and timely decisions regarding the products we regulate using the best available science, with the health and safety of the American public in mind.&rdquo;</p>

<p>&ldquo;Our decision-making must strike a careful balance between the potential risks and benefits of a variety of public health, legal and regulatory considerations,&rdquo; he said in an email. &ldquo;These considerations are never as clear-cut as some like to suggest.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But critics argue the agency could have moved faster. As Conor Friedersdorf <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/fda-delays-carry-death-toll/619871/">reported</a> for the Atlantic last summer, when the FDA was considering authorizing Covid-19 vaccines for children ages 5 to 11, it asked<strong> </strong>Pfizer and Moderna to gather more safety data, rather than rely on existing evidence that the vaccines were safe for adults and teenagers. Even<strong> </strong>the American Academy of Pediatrics <a href="https://downloads.aap.org/DOFA/AAP%20Letter%20to%20FDA%20on%20Timeline%20for%20Authorization%20of%20COVID-19%20Vaccine%20for%20Children_08_05_21.pdf">believed the existing evidence was sufficient</a> to grant authorization: &ldquo;The FDA should strongly consider authorizing these vaccines for children ages 5&ndash;11 years based on data from the initial enrolled cohort, which are already available,&rdquo; they <a href="https://downloads.aap.org/DOFA/AAP%20Letter%20to%20FDA%20on%20Timeline%20for%20Authorization%20of%20COVID-19%20Vaccine%20for%20Children_08_05_21.pdf">wrote in a letter to the agency</a>.</p>

<p>The delay approving rapid tests followed the same script. As <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/heres-why-rapid-covid-tests-are-so-expensive-and-hard-to-find">ProPublica&rsquo;s Lydia DePillis and Eric Umansky</a> found last November, the source of<strong> </strong>the FDA&rsquo;s delay &ldquo;appears to be a confounding combination of overzealous regulation and anemic government support.&rdquo; While tests were approved in other countries that prioritized &ldquo;accessibility and affordability over perfect accuracy,&rdquo; the FDA blocked the use of such tests in the United States.</p>

<p>It was the same story again when it came to human challenge trials. The FDA <a href="https://www.centerwatch.com/articles/24665-group-urges-challenge-trials-for-covid-19-vaccine-but-fda-and-ethicists-balk">brushed off the idea</a>, despite thousands of Americans stepping forward early in the pandemic to volunteer to be infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, to more rapidly study the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines. Human challenge trials are a controversial approach, but notably, the United Kingdom was willing to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/worlds-first-covid-human-challenge-trial-found-be-safe-young-adults-2022-02-02/">approve this research method</a> in February 2021 because of its potential<strong> </strong>to help &ldquo;<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/worlds-first-coronavirus-human-challenge-study-receives-ethics-approval-in-the-uk">accelerate</a>&rdquo; vaccine development.</p>

<p>As months pass and these events pile up, an uneasy question has risen to the forefront: What if the FDA&rsquo;s failures during the pandemic happen all the time, and most people are just now noticing? If the institution itself is broken, the danger could be far greater than just this moment.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What if the FDA has always been broken?</h2>
<p>George Mason University economist Alex Tabarrok has been beating this drum since long before Covid-19 was a concern. Tabarrok, a leading libertarian thinker advocating for institutional reform of the FDA, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/opinion/covid-vaccine.html">gained traction</a> criticizing America&rsquo;s pandemic response. Recently, I asked the economist: what if this goes beyond Covid-19?</p>

<p>Tabarrok has coined a haunting phrase to describe his concerns with the agency: &ldquo;The FDA is conservative because when it approves a bad drug, its error is visible, but when it fails to approve good drugs, the dead are buried in an invisible graveyard.&rdquo;</p>

<p>In an interview, he pointed me to a 2017 <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2641547">paper</a> by Leah Isakov, Vahid Montazerhodjat, and Andrew Lo titled &ldquo;Is the FDA Too Conservative or Too Aggressive?: A Bayesian Decision Analysis of Clinical Trial Design.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The paper explores the trade-offs the agency faces between what it calls Type I and Type II errors, or false positives and false negatives, respectively. A false positive would be approving a drug that is either harmful or ineffective, and a false negative would be failing to approve a drug that would be helpful or even potentially lifesaving.</p>

<p>Type I errors are much more salient to the FDA than Type II. The agency can drive down the rate of false positives to near zero by being stingy with its approvals &mdash; after all, you&rsquo;ll never approve a drug that harms people if you never approve drugs.</p>

<p>Optimizing for the appropriate levels of risk in both directions &mdash; ensuring important treatments are quickly approved, while also guarding against the approval of dangerous or worthless<strong> </strong>drugs &mdash; is an incredibly difficult problem to solve. So how does the FDA score?</p>

<p>According to Isakov, Montazerhodjat, and Lo: badly.</p>

<p>They find that the FDA is way too conservative when assessing clinical trials for therapies of &ldquo;terminal illnesses with no existing therapies such as pancreatic cancer.&rdquo; These are the areas where you would hope the FDA would be overly willing to approve therapeutics since the risk of death and disability are already high for patients.</p>

<p>This paper confirms an anecdote from Henry Miller, a former FDA physician who has detailed the <a href="https://www.fdareview.org/issues/why-the-fda-has-an-incentive-to-delay-the-introduction-of-new-drugs/">flawed incentive structure within the agency</a>:</p>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-none is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>In the early 1980s, when I headed the team at the FDA that was reviewing the NDA for recombinant human insulin &#8230; we were ready to recommend approval a mere four months after the application was submitted (at a time when the average time for NDA review was more than two and a half years). With quintessential bureaucratic reasoning, my supervisor refused to sign off on the approval&mdash;even though he agreed that the data provided compelling evidence of the drug&rsquo;s safety and effectiveness. &ldquo;If anything goes wrong,&rdquo; he argued, &ldquo;think how bad it will look that we approved the drug so quickly.&rdquo;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In Miller&rsquo;s telling, the agency was overly sensitive to the possibility of making a Type I (false positive) error &mdash; and to safeguard the agency&rsquo;s reputation, they withheld a drug from the public.</p>

<p>On average, starting the timer at when a drug begins pre-clinical testing, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2452302X1600036X">it takes the FDA 12 years to approve a new drug</a>.</p>

<p>And even as the organization has worked to speed up its processes during the Covid-19 pandemic,<strong> </strong>the agency failed repeatedly on balancing risks.</p>

<p>According to <a href="https://progress.institute/taking-emergency-use-authorization-seriously/">Institute for Progress senior biosecurity fellow Nikki Teran</a>, the US &ldquo;requires antigen tests to be 80 percent as sensitive as the gold standard RT-PCR tests.&rdquo; That means, in theory, that an antigen test in the US &ldquo;needs to be over 30,000 times more sensitive&rdquo; than in the UK, where Teran notes there are more than 150 different rapid antigen tests available (<a href="https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1473517674156244997">and for complicated reasons</a>, 30,000 times more sensitive in a clinical trial does not actually mean 30,000 times better in real life).</p>

<p><a href="https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-medical-devices/in-vitro-diagnostics-euas-antigen-diagnostic-tests-sars-cov-2">According to the FDA</a>, as of February 9, just 15 emergency use authorizations have been granted for over-the-counter at-home tests. The agency says there are a few common errors preventing it from authorizing antigen tests, and most boil down to poor data: too few patients tested, not enough proof people know how to use the tests,<strong> </strong>incorrect types of samples, and more.</p>

<p>Disregarding Mina&rsquo;s argument that data does<em> </em>exist, just not in the format the FDA wants, there&rsquo;s still another thing to consider as the FDA rejects applications: The alternative to a complicated test that doesn&rsquo;t work well is often no test at all.</p>

<p>There are dangerous parallels in history to the current Covid-19 crisis. <a href="https://repository.uchastings.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3178&amp;context=hastings_law_journal">According to Steven Salbu</a>, then an associate professor of business at the University of Texas Austin, &ldquo;in the late 1980s the FDA adopted a de facto blanket ban on HIV home-testing kits.&rdquo; Salbu writes that an FDA spokesperson explained this policy by pointing to the potential for &ldquo;improper drawing of blood samples, the possibility of blood samples being held for long periods of time, and the potential for blood samples to be affected by temperature changes during in-mail transit.&rdquo;</p>

<p>So the FDA, seeing that there could be problems with the capability for HIV tests to be performed perfectly accurately at home, chose instead to allow no at-home tests to exist. Sounds familiar.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.kff.org/hivaids/fact-sheet/the-hivaids-epidemic-in-the-united-states-the-basics/">According to the Kaiser Family Foundation</a>, more than 700,000 Americans have died from an HIV-related illness.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Now, my view is that for people who have AIDS and cancer and heart disease, it&rsquo;s always an emergency for them,&rdquo; Tabarrok said. &ldquo;Right? It&rsquo;s always been like a pandemic for them. And now, I hope that people will come to appreciate the opportunity cost of more safety of FDA delay and apply this more broadly.&rdquo;</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter alignnone"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true" data-conversation="none"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yes, the FDA&#039;s sloth like action on rapid antigen tests is part of a history of antipathy, skepticism, and delay towards all home tests. The FDA banned HIV tests for 25 years, tried to regulate pregnancy tests as med devices before courts stopped them, slowed genetic tests etc&#8230;</p>&mdash; Alex Tabarrok (@ATabarrok) <a href="https://twitter.com/ATabarrok/status/1475141013928771589?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 26, 2021</a></blockquote>
</div></figure><h2 class="wp-block-heading">Maybe the FDA’s problem isn’t about risk tolerance</h2>
<p>Scientist and writer Hilda Bastian <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/fda-pfizer-vaccine-full-approval/619870/">disagrees</a> that the FDA was too slow on vaccines. She has pointed out that the agency has moved pretty quickly relative to its normal vaccine authorization process. And that&rsquo;s not the only thing Bastian finds a little unnerving.</p>

<p>&ldquo;By the end of the year, Pfizer will have produced an estimated 3 billion doses, the most of any company,&rdquo; she <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/fda-pfizer-vaccine-full-approval/619870/">wrote</a> in the Atlantic in August 2021. &ldquo;That lightning-fast progress is awe-inspiring&mdash;and a little nerve-racking. &#8230; The FDA <em>has</em> to be thorough, especially with the first of a new type of drug with completely new production processes.&rdquo;</p>

<p>A recent controversy over the FDA approval of an Alzheimer&rsquo;s drug, Aduhelm, showcases the double bind the agency is in.</p>

<p>As Vox&rsquo;s Dylan Scott has <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22547044/new-alzheimers-disease-drug-aducanumab-research-science">explained</a>, the approval of the drug, which &ldquo;came over the objections of [FDA&rsquo;s] own scientific advisers, who cited a lack of evidence for the drug&rsquo;s effectiveness,&rdquo; has raised flags that innovation on future Alzheimer&rsquo;s treatments will decline. Ultimately, Medicare decided to significantly limit which patients could receive the drug &mdash; <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/11/health/aduhelm-medicare-alzheimers.html">according to the New York Times</a>, officials &ldquo;concluded that there remain significant doubts about whether the potential benefits of Aduhelm for patients outweigh the safety risks.&rdquo; (A STAT <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2021/06/29/biogen-fda-alzheimers-drug-approval-aduhelm-project-onyx/">investigation</a> suggested troublingly close contact between Biogen, the drug manufacturer, and FDA officials.)</p>

<p>This episode pushes back against the narrative that the FDA is too conservative. Instead, it indicates that the relevant question may not be &ldquo;how risk-averse is the agency?&rdquo; but instead, &ldquo;in what situations has it been willing to take risks?&rdquo; In the case of Aduhelm&rsquo;s approval, some have alleged that the agency has been too close to the pharmaceutical industry. But when it came to a worldwide emergency, suddenly an abundance of caution ruled the day.</p>

<p>And maybe, as physician <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/americas-drug-approval-system-unsustainable/619422/">Benjamin Mazer suggests</a>, the problem is actually &ldquo;the long-standing and gradual erosion of the agency&rsquo;s scientific standards.&rdquo; Mazer points out that 30 years ago, roughly 40 percent of drugs qualified for a regulatory shortcut, but by 2018, 60 percent of them did.</p>

<p>Whether the FDA&rsquo;s caution is confined to its decision-making during the Covid-19 pandemic or if it suffers from a much deeper-rooted illness is still up for debate. At the very least, the scrutiny on the FDA demands a rethinking of whether the agency&rsquo;s risk tolerance is in line with the nation&rsquo;s best interests.</p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jerusalem Demsas</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Could a 54-year-old civil rights law be revived?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/22883459/martin-luther-king-jr-fair-housing-act-housing-crisis" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/22883459/martin-luther-king-jr-fair-housing-act-housing-crisis</id>
			<updated>2022-01-18T08:25:27-05:00</updated>
			<published>2022-01-17T06:10:32-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.&#8217;s assassination on April 4, 1968, helped usher in the passage of the Fair Housing Act (FHA), a law that promised to not only stop unjust discrimination but also reverse decades of government-created segregation. The FHA, which made discrimination on the basis of race, color, national origin, religion, sex, familial status, [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
							<content type="html">
											<![CDATA[

						
<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="The Stone of Hope, a granite statue of civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr., stands at his memorial in Washington, DC, on January 14, 2022. | Mandel Ngan/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Mandel Ngan/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23169180/GettyImages_1237720415.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	The Stone of Hope, a granite statue of civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr., stands at his memorial in Washington, DC, on January 14, 2022. | Mandel Ngan/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.&rsquo;s assassination on April 4, 1968, helped usher in the passage of the Fair Housing Act (FHA), a law that promised to not only stop unjust discrimination but also reverse decades of government-created segregation.</p>

<p>The FHA, which made discrimination on the basis of race, color, national origin, religion, sex, familial status, and disability illegal in the process of buying and selling homes, had already failed to pass Congress in two earlier versions. As Michelle Adams <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-unfulfilled-promise-of-the-fair-housing-act">wrote for the New Yorker</a><em>,</em> the 1968 version would likely have met the same end if not for the political impact of the assassination.</p>

<p>But just a few months after the act&rsquo;s passage, Richard Nixon was elected, and,<strong> </strong>as Nikole Hannah-Jones explained, <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/living-apart-how-the-government-betrayed-a-landmark-civil-rights-law">the federal government&rsquo;s &ldquo;betrayal&rdquo;</a> of the FHA&rsquo;s promise began. Nixon&rsquo;s Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary George Romney did<strong> </strong>attempt to use the FHA to meet its goal and<strong> </strong>actually desegregate white communities, telling &ldquo;HUD officials to <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/living-apart-how-the-government-betrayed-a-landmark-civil-rights-law">reject applications</a> for water, sewer, and highway projects from cities and states where local policies fostered segregated housing.&rdquo; But<strong> </strong>Nixon put a quick stop to this policy. And as Hannah-Jones documents, he wasn&rsquo;t the last; since then, &ldquo;a succession of presidents &mdash; Democrat and Republican alike &mdash; followed Nixon&rsquo;s lead.&rdquo;</p>

<p>In the 21st century, segregated communities are kept that way not through laws that explicitly attempt to keep certain areas white but through a more insidious method &mdash; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Flsg_mzG-M">exclusionary zoning and land-use regulations</a> that make it illegal to build affordable types of housing, laws that allow wealthy Americans to <a href="https://www.vox.com/22534714/rail-roads-infrastructure-costs-america">block things from being built</a>, and a failure to consistently use <a href="https://www.vox.com/22252625/america-racist-housing-rules-how-to-fix">federal civil rights laws to desegregate</a>.</p>

<p>All of this has resulted in the <a href="https://www.vox.com/22264268/covid-19-housing-insecurity-housing-prices-mortgage-rates-pandemic-zoning-supply-demand">prices of housing and rent skyrocketing</a>. Over the last year, diminished supply as a result of these laws has pushed the <a href="https://www.vox.com/22264268/covid-19-housing-insecurity-housing-prices-mortgage-rates-pandemic-zoning-supply-demand">cost of shelter</a> higher than ever, straining the pockets of working-class, middle-class, and even some high-income Americans.</p>

<p>To attack these regulations with the FHA, plaintiffs would have to prove that these laws have a &ldquo;disparate impact&rdquo; on a protected group &mdash; for instance, proving that a community <a href="https://www.relmanlaw.com/media/cases/23_10_CoxsackieComplaint-Filed%20_2_.pdf">blocking 300 units of moderately priced housing</a> was discriminating on race, national origin, or family status.</p>

<p>But Richard Kahlenberg, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation and a leading thinker on economic integration, has an idea: Amend the Fair Housing Act to include economic discrimination as a legally prohibited form of discrimination.</p>

<p>No longer would litigators have to jump through hoops to prove that banning new affordable housing construction hurts people of color disproportionately. Instead, plaintiffs would just have to show that towns that blocked these developments were discriminating against poor people &mdash; regardless of their race, national origin, or family status.</p>

<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s immoral for governments to erect barriers that exclude and discriminate based on income and, as a matter of basic human dignity, economic discrimination belongs in the Fair Housing Act,&rdquo; Kahlenberg explained.</p>

<p>While Democrats have often talked eloquently about the importance of fair housing, they have never seriously attempted to take on exclusionary zoning at the federal level. Left in limbo is George Romney&rsquo;s idea that the federal government should <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/11/11/22774773/inflation-housing-market-home-prices-biden-build-back-better">withhold funds</a> from localities still actively engaged in exclusionary zoning practices and thereby <a href="https://www.econlib.org/a-correction-on-housing-regulation/">undermining the economic wellbeing</a> of the entire country. Even now, as billions of infrastructure dollars are heading to states and local governments, it&rsquo;s barely up for discussion.</p>

<p>(Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that economically segregationist communities are often ones led by Democrats &mdash; in wealthy cities and suburbs, economic discrimination is a normal facet of life.)</p>

<p>Enacting an Economic Fair Housing Act wouldn&rsquo;t be as sweeping as Romney&rsquo;s idea from the 1970s, and any new protections would still need to be enforced. Kahlenberg has been advising Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) as the latter has begun drafting a bill to amend the FHA to include economic discrimination in the housing market.</p>

<p>&ldquo;I think one of the greatest tributes that we can make to Dr. King&rsquo;s legacy is for us, this year, to pass an Economic Fair Housing Act,&rdquo; Cleaver told me over the phone.</p>

<p>I spoke with Kahlenberg about the potential for an Economic Fair Housing Act and whether this would really push the ball on increasing affordable housing. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jerusalem Demsas</h3>
<p>You&rsquo;ve <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/19/opinion/biden-zoning-social-justice.html">written a lot</a> about exclusionary zoning built explicitly on the attempt to segregate based on race. Has that all morphed into economic discrimination?</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Richard Kahlenberg</h3>
<p>In certain communities, there is still an intent to segregate by race, so I don&rsquo;t want to downplay that, but having said that, there&rsquo;s certainly evidence that the issue of exclusionary zoning is not only about race.</p>

<p>We know in predominantly white communities that wealthy whites will use zoning to exclude lower-income whites. We also know, for example, in Prince George&rsquo;s County, Maryland, a predominantly Black community, that there are efforts by wealthier Black people to exclude lower-income Black people through exclusionary zoning.</p>

<p>In some white, liberal communities, you will hear people say they are delighted to have a Black doctor or lawyer move in next door. And so they feel virtuous for no longer excluding directly based on race, without acknowledging that they&rsquo;d be highly uncomfortable with working-class Black people or white people moving into the neighborhood.</p>

<p>So I think it&rsquo;s important that we recognize that there&rsquo;s exclusion going on by both race and class, which is why we need some new tools to beef up the existing laws.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jerusalem Demsas</h3>
<p>I think one of the most interesting parts of when you look at Supreme Court history in this space is the entrenching of the idea that apartments and multi-family housing are inherently a nuisance. In <em>Euclid v. Ambler </em>(1926) the Court wrote:</p>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-none is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>&ldquo;depriving children of the privilege of quiet and open spaces for play, enjoyed by those in more favored localities &mdash; until, finally, the residential character of the neighborhood and its desirability as a place of detached residences are utterly destroyed. Under these circumstances, apartment houses &hellip; come very near to being nuisances.&rdquo;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>And in the American context, thinking of multi-family housing as inherently a nuisance is pretty normalized. Can you talk a little bit about how this idea has played an important role in perpetuating economic segregation?</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Richard Kahlenberg</h3>
<p>The <em>Euclid</em> decision that you mentioned is fascinating because while the Supreme Court ultimately upheld economically discriminatory zoning, citing this idea that apartments are a nuisance, the lower court recognized that this is clear class discrimination.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>“The notion that an apartment is a nuisance is a class-laden concept”</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>And that is what&rsquo;s going on &mdash; the notion that an apartment is a nuisance is a class-laden concept connected to the idea that there is a negative effect on wealthier people when lower-income people are in proximity.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jerusalem Demsas</h3>
<p>So what is your solution here? You&rsquo;re proposing an Economic Fair Housing Act, what is that?</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Richard Kahlenberg</h3>
<p>So the idea of the Economic Fair Housing Act would extend the 1968 Fair Housing Act protection against racial discrimination to include protection against income discrimination by the government.</p>

<p>When local governments adopt <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/25/snob-zoning-is-racial-housing-segregation-by-another-name/">&ldquo;snob zoning&rdquo; laws</a>, they&rsquo;re effectively saying we don&rsquo;t want lower-income people in our community, and that&rsquo;s a form of economic discrimination. The Economic Fair Housing Act would allow plaintiffs who are harmed by government-sponsored income discrimination to sue in federal court the way one currently can under the Fair Housing Act for racial discrimination.</p>

<p>The new law would draw upon the concept of &ldquo;disparate impact,&rdquo; which is used in the Fair Housing Act. So a plaintiff wouldn&rsquo;t have to show that the government&rsquo;s <em>intent</em> is to discriminate based on income, but only that exclusionary zoning has the <em>effect</em> of discriminating based on income. As with racial disparate impact suits, the burden would shift to the local government to prove that its policy is necessary to achieve a valid interest.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jerusalem Demsas</h3>
<p>There are a lot of judges who might say that there is a valid interest in upholding exclusionary zoning, building on the established idea that apartments &mdash; and by extension working-class and middle-class people &mdash; are nuisances.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Richard Kahlenberg</h3>
<p>I think many judges will see through&nbsp;the&nbsp;pretexts offered by local governments.&nbsp;If, say, governments indicate they want to minimize&nbsp;traffic and parking congestion, a reasonable&nbsp;court is likely to press them:&nbsp;Is it really &ldquo;necessary&rdquo; to ban all duplexes and triplexes?&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p>But to guard against conservative judges watering down the standard, it would be possible to include some&nbsp;process-oriented and results-oriented guardrails in the legislation.&nbsp;In<a href="https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__tcf.org_content_report_tearing-2Dwalls-2Dbiden-2Dadministration-2Dcongress-2Dcan-2Dreduce-2Dexclusionary-2Dzoning_&amp;d=DwMFaQ&amp;c=7MSjEE-cVgLCRHxk1P5PWg&amp;r=nLZhJpbveNo4l8b2bVcMMF_TZgU6MrKE3mDknTHXlCY&amp;m=2L037RYLXcwf0sRmwue5QMYZqyqRjlUTL4lyQfjQIPs3gg0o4npALRRRYxgLQNKL&amp;s=_ZQlR_N8PAZBLxroD2TAj6seJBXnNjANl9kH2pd3_S8&amp;e=">&nbsp;this report</a>, I suggested a ban on duplexes and triplexes could make a zoning policy presumptively illegitimate as a matter&nbsp;of process, and zoning policies in a community that had a very small share of affordable housing might be presumptively illegitimate as a matter of outcomes.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jerusalem Demsas</h3>
<p>My understanding with the Fair Housing Act is that the difficulty of enforcement happens in a couple of places.</p>

<p>One is that the &ldquo;disparate impact&rdquo; standard is actually quite difficult to reach, and there are many judges that are hostile to that analysis. And secondly that it requires just a ton of resources to suss out the disparate impact.</p>

<p>You often have to determine the counterfactual of what would have happened if a different legal system existed or what type of people would have lived in a development if it had not been blocked. It sometimes requires a mix of statisticians, economists, and sociologists in addition to lawyers to do that analysis.</p>

<p>So, how does adding economic discrimination help solve that core issue?</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Richard Kahlenberg</h3>
<p>I think it would make a big dent. The criticisms you cite of the Fair Housing Act are legitimate. Having said that, when the law was passed in 1968, I think it had two big impacts.</p>

<p>One is the impact on culture. If you go back to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/07/09/white-views-on-desegregation-have-long-lagged-behind-the-law/">polling</a> in the 1960s, a majority of white people said that whites should have the right to keep Black people out of neighborhoods. Today, virtually no one would say that, and so having a law on the books can change culture and delegitimize discrimination. I think it did a good job of delegitimizing racial discrimination, and the aim is that the Economic Fair Housing Act would play a similar role.</p>

<p>In terms of the consequences, if we look at levels of racial segregation in this country, they remain far too high, but they have declined about 30 percent since 1970.</p>

<p>Black-white segregation is often measured with a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/12/17/black-white-segregation-edges-downward-since-2000-census-shows/">dissimilarity index</a>, and it stood at 79 in 1970, and it&rsquo;s at 55 in 2020. Meanwhile, income segregation has been headed in the opposite direction. It&rsquo;s basically doubled since 1970. And so, while the Fair Housing Act is imperfect, it has had a positive impact on issues of racial discrimination in housing. And I think an Economic Fair Housing Act could have similar effects.</p>

<p>In terms of the statistical analysis required, one of the arguments for an Economic Fair Housing Act is that it would be easier to show that exclusionary zoning policies have a disparate economic impact.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jerusalem Demsas</h3>
<p>Oh, interesting. Why is that?</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Richard Kahlenberg</h3>
<p>Well, right now it&rsquo;s a bit of a bank shot. These laws are effectively aimed at excluding based on income and then you have to show how race and income interact. So it just removes one step in the process.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jerusalem Demsas</h3>
<p>When the federal government has attempted to impose desegregation on communities, particularly with school desegregation, we see a ton of backlash, much of which is successful at maintaining segregation.</p>

<p>Are you worried that legislation like this will just result in states and localities getting more wily at getting around this new law and not solve the underlying problems in the long run?</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Richard Kahlenberg</h3>
<p>So I would say a couple of things.</p>

<p>One, if you look at the history of school desegregation, there was enormous backlash to federal efforts to desegregate. But, at the end of the day, school desegregation in the South worked. That is to say, although there was political resistance, over time the South went from being the most segregated part of the country in terms of their schools, to the most integrated part of the country, and we saw the achievement gap between Black and white students fall considerably during the era of desegregation.</p>

<p>So, although it took a long time &mdash; there was enormous inaction between Brown in 1954 and when federal government efforts to desegregate actually took off in the late 1960s &mdash; it was enormously effective for an important group of students who benefited from the policy.</p>

<p>More to the point, the Fair Housing Act was very controversial at the time. There were US senators who <a href="https://washingtonmonthly.com/2021/05/20/the-limits-of-the-fair-housing-act/">lost their jobs over supporting [fair housing]</a>. But today, the concept is broadly accepted, and you wouldn&rsquo;t gain political traction from saying you want to repeal the federal Fair Housing Act.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jerusalem Demsas</h3>
<p>Contrasting this with other attempts by the federal government to address this problem &mdash; for instance, the grants the White House has proposed to provide planning and technical grants for localities that want to willingly re-zone &mdash; it seems like the winds are turning toward offering carrots (and very small carrots at that) rather than engaging in anything that could appear punitive.</p>

<p>Do you think the political winds are shifting away from being able to enact policies like the Economic Fair Housing Act?</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Richard Kahlenberg</h3>
<p>Well, let me answer that in a couple of ways. I&rsquo;m very supportive of efforts to either essentially bribe localities into doing the right thing through a Race to the Top program if you don&rsquo;t reduce exclusionary zoning. I think that&rsquo;s a good effort, but I think that the Economic Fair Housing Act offers something both substantively and politically that&rsquo;s better.</p>

<p>I think part of the problem with the existing federal proposals is that they suggest that exclusionary zoning is bad policy because it blocks opportunity and makes housing less affordable and damages the planet. All of those things are true, but what I think the Economic Fair Housing Act tries to do is say it&rsquo;s not just bad policy, it&rsquo;s immoral for governments to erect barriers that exclude and discriminate based on income &#8230; because it&rsquo;s shameful what&rsquo;s going on.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>“People’s eyes glaze over when you talk about zoning. People understand that when white people were throwing rocks at buses carrying Black children to school &#8230; that’s wrong.”</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>I also think the Economic Fair Housing Act framing will do a better job of raising awareness of the issue. I&rsquo;m working on a book now called <em>The Walls We Don&rsquo;t See</em> because people&rsquo;s eyes glaze over when you talk about zoning.</p>

<p>People understand that when white people were throwing rocks at buses carrying Black children to school in order to desegregate, that&rsquo;s wrong. It&rsquo;s dramatic. The Economic Fair Housing Act does a better job than those other efforts to make people see what&rsquo;s going on. It&rsquo;s also more comprehensive than Build Back Better&rsquo;s Unlocking Possibilities Program, which would reach a small number of places that are incentivized to make reforms. But this is comprehensive, it&rsquo;s everywhere.</p>

<p>So, I think this would be more effective than all those other approaches. But going back to the point I was making earlier, I think the economic framing is absolutely essential. I&rsquo;ve been reading Heather McGhee&rsquo;s book, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/564989/the-sum-of-us-by-heather-mcghee/"><em>The Sum of Us</em></a><em>, </em>which I think is just brilliant.</p>

<p>One of her points is that if you want to make progress in society, you have to show white people how racism hurts them, and this is a classic example of where zoning began as racial in character and shifted to economic in order to exclude by race and ended up pulling in a lot of working-class whites as well.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jerusalem Demsas</h3>
<p>Can you speak more to the political coalition-building benefits of the economic framing approach?</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Richard Kahlenberg</h3>
<p>If you look at what drove Donald Trump, a lot of it was what Michael Sandel called the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/sep/06/michael-sandel-the-populist-backlash-has-been-a-revolt-against-the-tyranny-of-merit">politics of humiliation</a>. And it <em>is</em> humiliating for working-class white people with less education to feel as though cultural elites are looking down on them &mdash; as they do.</p>

<p>I would never say it&rsquo;s as bad as racism, but there is a way that economic framing helps unite these two groups that have been at war with each other for decades &mdash; working-class white people and people of color. In a common sense, they are being looked down upon for different reasons by well-to-do white people. So I think the politics are powerful here.</p>

<p>We&rsquo;ve seen that in Oregon and California where there are these fascinating political coalitions of conservative rural white legislators and urban liberal legislators of color who, not always, but in large measure have come together to defeat wealthier white suburban legislative interests in making the case for reform.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jerusalem Demsas</h3>
<p>The Economic Fair Housing Act which you have been fighting for for years is now getting legislative attention.</p>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Richard Kahlenberg</h3>
<p>I&rsquo;m excited that there&rsquo;s interest on Capitol Hill and that Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, who is chair of the subcommittee on housing in the House, is working on draft legislation to create an Economic Fair Housing Act.</p>

<p>He held hearings back in October on exclusionary zoning, and there&rsquo;s a comment that he made at the beginning of the hearing which I found to be very profound. He said he was in Kansas City, he worked on zoning matters as a local official, and he said you just learn a lot about human nature and what people are really like when issues of zoning come up.</p>

<p>I think someone like him, who understands the importance of zoning and the way it affects disadvantaged people, working-class people, middle-class people who are excluded from higher-opportunity neighborhoods &mdash; I&rsquo;m excited that someone like him is interested in moving forward with this type of legislation.</p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jerusalem Demsas</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Stop calling workers “low skill”]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/22871812/eric-adams-aoc-low-skill-workers" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/22871812/eric-adams-aoc-low-skill-workers</id>
			<updated>2022-01-11T12:27:27-05:00</updated>
			<published>2022-01-11T13:10:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[&#8220;My low-skill workers, my cooks, my dishwashers, my messengers, my shoe-shine people, those who work at Dunkin&#8217; Donuts &#8212; they don&#8217;t have the academic skills to sit in a corner office,&#8221; New York City&#8217;s new mayor Eric Adams said at a press conference, stirring up controversy less than a week into office. The remarks were [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
							<content type="html">
											<![CDATA[

						
<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="A waiter serves food to customers at Langer’s Deli in Los Angeles, California, on August 7, 2021. | Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23158548/GettyImages_1234553221.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	A waiter serves food to customers at Langer’s Deli in Los Angeles, California, on August 7, 2021. | Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>&ldquo;My low-skill workers, my cooks, my dishwashers, my messengers, my shoe-shine people, those who work at Dunkin&rsquo; Donuts &mdash; they don&rsquo;t have the academic skills to sit in a corner office,&rdquo; New York City&rsquo;s new mayor Eric Adams said at a <a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/002-22/mayor-adams-signs-small-business-forward-executive-order-reform-small-business-violations#/0">press conference</a>, stirring up controversy less than a week into office.</p>

<p>The remarks were part of a broader plea to employers urging them to bring remote workers back to the office and arguing that work from home was harming small businesses across the city. But in doing so, he referred to in-person, service sector workers as &ldquo;low-skill workers.&rdquo; Those remarks rankled some, including US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, <a href="https://twitter.com/jessicaramos/status/1478481110652829707?s=20">state Sen. Jessica Ramos</a>, and a <a href="https://twitter.com/samswey/status/1478888882053677058">number</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/GalvinAlmanza/status/1478532772658622464?s=20">of</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/megancarpentier/status/1478490458208808962?s=20">other</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/tiffany_caban/status/1478500671947161600?s=20">commentators</a> who reacted negatively to the pejorative connotation of &ldquo;low-skill.&rdquo;</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter alignnone"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The suggestion that any job is “low skill” is a myth perpetuated by wealthy interests to justify inhumane working conditions, little/no healthcare, and low wages.<br><br>Plus being a waitress has made me and many others *better* at our jobs than those who’ve never known that life. <a href="https://t.co/dhkhBwyNWK">https://t.co/dhkhBwyNWK</a></p>&mdash; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) <a href="https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1478758105999679490?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 5, 2022</a></blockquote>
</div></figure>
<p>The online response to Adams&rsquo;s comments centered around whether it was accurate to refer to people working in service sector jobs as &ldquo;low skill,&rdquo; pointing out the <a href="https://twitter.com/centerfluid/status/1478474241049833479?s=20">difficult</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/bjoewolf/status/1478536431983333376?s=20">nature</a> of the <a href="https://twitter.com/megancarpentier/status/1478490458208808962?s=20">jobs</a> Adams listed. Critics also noted that for the past two years, these workers have been called &ldquo;essential&rdquo; by everyone, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/4/8/21212435/coronavirus-tv-ads-mcdonalds-toyota-state-farm-dominos">major corporations in their commercials</a>. The controversy seemed to miss Adams&rsquo;s broader point &mdash; that remote workers in high-wage and highly educated industries working from home have undermined New York City&rsquo;s service sector. In a <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w29181">recent National Bureau of Economic Research paper</a>, researchers find that &ldquo;low-skill service workers in big cities bore most of the recent pandemic&rsquo;s economic impact.&rdquo;</p>

<p>There&rsquo;s that phrase again &mdash; &ldquo;low skill.&rdquo;</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s common in economics to refer to labor that does not require extensive specialized training or certification as &ldquo;unskilled.&rdquo; But used outside of the academic field, it&rsquo;s a term that obscures much more than it reveals. By implying low-skilled workers inherently don&rsquo;t have the academic chops to do the higher-paid, remote, work-from-home jobs, Adams succumbs to a common error: Believing that skill (not supply and demand for particular types of labor) is what differentiates higher-paid office workers from in-person service laborers.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The faulty assumptions behind “low-skilled workers”</h2>
<p>When people refer to low-skill workers, the more precise term would be low-wage. There is nothing inherently unskilled about standing in a hot kitchen for hours cooking or picking countless pieces of fruit every day in the blistering heat.</p>

<p>This isn&rsquo;t a pedantic distinction. The failure to understand that skill does not track with wages often leads people to advocate for bad policies that don&rsquo;t actually help low-wage workers access a more financially stable future.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter alignnone"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This incredibly skilled worker earns $1.86 per 60 bundles of radishes. She’s done this work for the same employer for more than a decade and has the method down to a science. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeFeedYou?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeFeedYou</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ThankAFarmworker?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ThankAFarmworker</a> <a href="https://t.co/VVVAhCR1OA">pic.twitter.com/VVVAhCR1OA</a></p>&mdash; United Farm Workers (@UFWupdates) <a href="https://twitter.com/UFWupdates/status/1199825583485509632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 27, 2019</a></blockquote>
</div></figure>
<p>The first way we know that wages don&rsquo;t directly track with &ldquo;skills&rdquo; is that many college-educated Americans are working those low-wage jobs. <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market/college-labor-market_underemployment_rates.html">According to the New York Federal Reserve</a>, roughly 40 percent of recent college graduates are underemployed or &ldquo;working in jobs that typically do not require a college degree.&rdquo;</p>

<p>There is no absolute inherent measure of skills that determines whether a worker has what it takes to sit in a corner office. Skill is dependent on the context of supply and demand for specific tasks and roles. If tomorrow a computer could suddenly do my job, or if everyone decided they didn&rsquo;t want to read explainers anymore, nothing would have changed about how &ldquo;skilled&rdquo; I am, but everything would change about Vox&rsquo;s willingness to pay me my current salary to continue to do it.</p>

<p>Further, policymakers have often erred in attempting to respond to unemployment issues by trying to make employees more &ldquo;skilled.&rdquo; In the aftermath of the Great Recession, pundits and politicians alike made a ton of noise about the so-called &ldquo;skills gap,&rdquo; essentially blaming workers for not having the right credentials or expertise for the jobs that were available.</p>

<p>As Matthew Yglesias wrote for <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/7/18166951/skills-gap-modestino-shoag-ballance">Vox</a>:</p>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-none is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>Everyone from the&nbsp;<strong>US Chamber of Commerce</strong>&nbsp;to the&nbsp;<a href="https://blog.execu-search.com/president-obama-aims-to-close-it-skills-gap-with-recent-initiative/"><strong>Obama White House</strong></a>&nbsp;was talking about a &ldquo;skills gap&rdquo; &#8230; Harvard Business Review&nbsp;<a href="https://hbr.org/2012/12/who-can-fix-the-middle-skills-gap"><strong>ran articles about this</strong></a>&nbsp;&mdash; including articles rebutting people who said&nbsp;<a href="https://hbr.org/2014/08/employers-arent-just-whining-the-skills-gap-is-real"><strong>the &ldquo;skills gap&rdquo; didn&rsquo;t exist</strong></a>&nbsp;&mdash; and big companies like Siemens ran paid sponsor content in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/siemens-2014/the-us-ignores-how-the-rest-of-the-world-bridges-the-skills-gap/162/"><strong>the Atlantic explaining how to fix the skills gap</strong></a>.&rdquo;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But the skills gap <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/7/18166951/skills-gap-modestino-shoag-ballance">wasn&rsquo;t real</a>.</p>

<p>During a recession, the balance of power is in employers&rsquo; hands. Bosses knew that many people were out of work; they could stand to be picky when it came to hiring and so they demanded more credentials, complaining when applicants didn&rsquo;t meet that high bar. Only when the labor market tilted in workers&rsquo; favor did they bother to take less obviously credentialed applicants more seriously and stop bleating about a &ldquo;skills gap.&rdquo;</p>

<p>&ldquo;As the labor market starts getting tighter then you might sit down and actually read someone&rsquo;s resume and realize that &lsquo;Hey this person was in the Army for five years doing a complicated mechanical task&rsquo; and that&rsquo;s really relevant to the work that we do,&rdquo; explained Matt Darling, employment policy fellow at think tank Niskanen Center.</p>

<p>Employees didn&rsquo;t become more &ldquo;skilled,&rdquo; the labor market changed.</p>

<p>Why is this important? Because if you believe that the problem with unemployment or underemployment is about how &ldquo;skilled&rdquo; an individual is, then you&rsquo;ll do things like <a href="https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/young-people-unable-access-skills-needed-todays-job-market-new-report-says">blame teenagers</a> for not identifying which skills they&rsquo;ll need for future employment opportunities. Instead, policymakers should understand that pushing for tight labor markets will induce firms to hire from nontraditional backgrounds and <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-employers-train-workers-20190426-story.html">invest in the appropriate training</a>.</p>

<p>Wages aren&rsquo;t based on skills, they&rsquo;re based on scarcity and want. You could be the best Ping-Pong champion in the world, and if nobody wants to watch Ping-Pong you probably won&rsquo;t make a living playing the sport. Alternatively, you could be a terrible construction worker, but if there&rsquo;s a severe enough shortage of people needed to build houses, you could get by without ever improving your &ldquo;skills.&rdquo;</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter alignnone"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true" data-conversation="none"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The core problem with the &quot;low to high skill&quot; terminology is not that it puts down certain workers, but that it conceives of skill as some kind of linear spectrum in the first place. An electrician and a plumber can&#039;t do each others job. Human capital is lumpy.</p>&mdash; Samuel Hammond 🦉 (@hamandcheese) <a href="https://twitter.com/hamandcheese/status/1478866887823998978?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 5, 2022</a></blockquote>
</div></figure>
<p>During the pandemic, the government has pursued expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. As a result, many workers have been empowered to find new and better jobs fueling the &ldquo;Great Resignation&rdquo; as they abscond from their employers for better opportunities. These workers did not suddenly become more skilled over the last two years, they gained leverage in a labor market that can no longer demand they jump through hoops in order to do a job they always had the ability to do.</p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jerusalem Demsas</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[3 ways remote work could remake America]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/22839563/remote-work-climate-change-house-prices-cities" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/22839563/remote-work-climate-change-house-prices-cities</id>
			<updated>2022-01-04T07:29:39-05:00</updated>
			<published>2022-01-04T07:30:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Climate" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Future of Work" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Housing" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[It&#8217;s not just another perk in a benefits package &#8212; remote work could fundamentally reshape the urban geography of the United States. Where we live has been dictated by where we can find a good job. That truism has defined much of where Americans reside &#8212; clustered in and around lucrative job markets. In particular, [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="New homes sprawl into the desert on July 1, 2021, in Henderson, Nevada. As remote work takes hold, some predict more suburban sprawl with implications for the climate and our political institutions. | David McNew/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="David McNew/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23142857/GettyImages_1233758236.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	New homes sprawl into the desert on July 1, 2021, in Henderson, Nevada. As remote work takes hold, some predict more suburban sprawl with implications for the climate and our political institutions. | David McNew/Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p>It&rsquo;s not just another perk in a benefits package &mdash; remote work could fundamentally reshape the urban geography of the United States.</p>

<p>Where we live has been <a href="https://www.vox.com/22352360/remote-work-cities-housing-prices-work-from-home">dictated by where we can find a good job</a>. That truism has <a href="https://www.vox.com/22352360/remote-work-cities-housing-prices-work-from-home">defined much of where Americans reside</a> &mdash; clustered in and around lucrative job markets.</p>

<p>In particular, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.5.4.167">&ldquo;superstar cities&rdquo;</a> have been a defining technological advancement. According to a 2018 article by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/the-extreme-geographic-inequality-of-high-tech-venture-capital">economist Richard Florida</a>, &ldquo;the five leading metros account for more than 80 percent of total venture capital investment and 85 percent of its growth over the past decade.&rdquo; Another economist, <a href="https://eml.berkeley.edu/~moretti/clusters.pdf">Enrico Moretti</a>, recently noted that &ldquo;the ten largest clusters [cities] in computer science, semiconductors, and biology account for 69 percent, 77 percent, and 59 percent of all US inventors.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Remote work could change that.</p>

<p>While only 37 percent of jobs could be performed remotely full time (<a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26948/w26948.pdf">according to two University of Chicago economists</a>), those jobs have outsize purchasing power (accounting for <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26948/w26948.pdf">46 percent of all US wages</a> by the same estimate). When people with these jobs congregate, they provide the necessary demand for a vast array of service sector jobs, from nurses and lawyers to teachers and taxi drivers. This is hugely important &mdash; it means that<strong> </strong>remote work could expand the choices of where to live for millions of Americans, not just those who have the option to work from home full time.</p>

<p>Imagine, for example, that you&rsquo;re a human resources manager at a tech firm in San Francisco, married to a baker and paying <a href="https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/san-francisco-ca">$2,800</a> a month for a one-bedroom apartment. With remote work, you could instead move to be closer to your family in Nashville or Orlando, and save a bunch of money on rent alone. And when you move, you&rsquo;ll take your family and your demand for services with you to those locations, opening up opportunities for other workers &mdash; including, say, your spouse, who could confidently move with you and open a bakery catering to other new transplants.</p>

<p>To be sure, there&rsquo;s good reason to believe that very little of this will happen.</p>

<p>Productivity is an open question and perhaps the most important one. Remote work doesn&rsquo;t have one clear effect on workers&rsquo; productivity, <a href="https://scholar.harvard.edu/eharrington/publications/working-remotely-selection-treatment-and-market-provision-remote-work">evidence from economists Emma Harrington and Natalia Emanuel</a> shows. Productivity <a href="https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20210920-why-workers-might-eventually-reject-hybrid-work">losses</a> or <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28731/w28731.pdf">gains</a> under remote work are likely to be different industry by industry, firm by firm, and role by role.</p>

<p>But if, on the whole, firms that choose to work in-person outperform those that are remote, it could push the equilibrium back to where we were before the pandemic. That&rsquo;s what Moretti <a href="https://www.vox.com/22352360/remote-work-cities-housing-prices-work-from-home">predicted to me back in April 2021</a>: &ldquo;The moment you start losing that creativity and productivity, that&rsquo;s when both the employer and employee have something to lose from this decentralized application.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Moreover, agglomeration economies &mdash; <a href="https://www.vox.com/22352360/remote-work-cities-housing-prices-work-from-home">&ldquo;the tendency of employers and workers to cluster&rdquo;</a> in big cities &mdash; are very powerful. One of the big reasons this happens is because of <a href="https://www.vox.com/22352360/remote-work-cities-housing-prices-work-from-home">matching between labor demand and supply</a>. Particularly for highly specialized workers, you want to live in a place with a lot of firms you can work for, so that you can bid up the price of your labor. And for firms, similarly, they want to be in a place with tons of workers they could hire for specialized roles, so they can find the best one.</p>

<p>For remote work to delink where people live from where they work, it&rsquo;s likely not enough for just one biotech firm to decide its employees can work from home full time. A bunch of firms in that industry would need to make that shift.</p>

<p>If that happens &mdash; one economist thinks about <a href="https://thebrowser.com/notes/adam-ozimek/">20 percent of jobs will realistically go fully remote</a> in the long run &mdash; there will be massive implications for where Americans live and work, presenting new challenges and solutions for the housing crisis, climate crisis, and our political institutions.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23114497/sml7fq3gleaj2xssvvz_ra.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="From &lt;a href=&quot;https://news.gallup.com/poll/355907/remote-work-persisting-trending-permanent.aspx&quot;&gt;“Remote Work Persisting and Trending Permanent”&lt;/a&gt; by Lydia Saad and Ben Wigert, showing the persistence of remote work during the pandemic. | Gallup" data-portal-copyright="Gallup" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading">Remote work and housing markets</h2>
<p>America&rsquo;s &ldquo;superstar cities&rdquo; are lucrative labor markets &mdash; but the price of entry has become the cost of living, namely, the price of shelter. Housing costs have skyrocketed in these places, because supply has been artificially constrained by the labyrinth of regulations and veto points in the housing development process.</p>

<p>Fixing this process is paramount, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/12/opinion/biden-infrastructure-zoning.html">expert</a> after <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/19/opinion/biden-zoning-social-justice.html">expert</a> has maintained. And while there has been some progress in recent years &mdash; notably on the West Coast &mdash; as of May 2021, the country has a shortage of about <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210507_housing_supply.page">3.8 million homes</a>, with the problem concentrated in the metropolitan regions with the most valuable labor markets.</p>

<p>Remote work could relieve some of the upward pressure on housing in these cities, in part by diffusing demand throughout the metro-suburban region. One <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w28731">study</a>, for example, showed that a shift to working from home would &ldquo;directly reduce spending in major city centers by at least 5-10 percent relative to the pre-pandemic situation.&rdquo; And<strong> </strong>economist Matt Delventhal <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119021000139">found</a> that an increase in remote work in the Los Angeles metro area would lead average real estate prices to fall: &ldquo;As many workers move into distant suburbs, prices in the periphery increase. However, these price increases are more than offset by the decline of prices in the core. &#8230; In the counterfactual where 33% of workers telecommute, average house prices fall by nearly 6%.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Fully remote work, meanwhile, could make it possible for people to avoid the high housing costs of places like Seattle or Boston entirely, while still accessing the jobs they offer.</p>

<p>By reducing the demand for housing in these major cities, the upward pressure on housing costs could ease. It also means that demand could be spread more equitably across the United States. We <a href="https://twitter.com/PEWilliams_/status/1459957646010818562">saw this dynamic begin to play out</a> during the pandemic as rents rose in more affordable cities like <a href="https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-rental-report-rents-up-21-pct/">Baltimore and Dallas</a>. But to accommodate that demand, cities need to make it easy to build more homes in these locations, otherwise rents will follow the same pattern as in <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/9/17/22679358/california-newsom-duplex-single-family-zoning">San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Washington, DC</a>.</p>

<p>While cities like <a href="https://www.redfin.com/news/october-november-2020-housing-migration-trends/">Austin, Phoenix, and Atlanta</a> are some of the natural inheritors of superstar city-dwellers seeking more affordable but still urban living, there is also an opportunity for smaller cities to benefit from a shift to fully remote work. One is already trying to seize it.</p>

<p>Like many American cities, Tulsa, Oklahoma, struggles with population growth and attracting high-wage workers. In order to combat this, a program called <a href="https://tulsaremote.com/faq/">Tulsa Remote was launched</a> offering $10,000 grants and &ldquo;numerous community-building opportunities&rdquo; to fully remote workers to move to Tulsa for a full year.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Tulsa did not just offer the $10,000,&rdquo; Upwork chief economist Adam Ozimek told Vox. &ldquo;Tulsa has also worked to build community for remote workers and create lots of local amenities. Tulsa was also the first to do it and this has been unequivocally good for Tulsa &#8230; but I would be surprised if anybody found out [$10,000] works out by itself. No one&rsquo;s going to make lifestyle decisions around $10,000.&rdquo;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23142833/GettyImages_1317972959.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Downtown Tulsa, Oklahoma, May 10, 2021. | Andrew Lichtenstein/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Lichtenstein/Getty Images" />
<p>The Economic Innovation Group released a <a href="https://eig.org/tulsa-remote">report</a> in November outlining the results, finding that the program &ldquo;is expected to be responsible for 592 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs and $62.0 million in new labor income for Tulsa County in 2021 alone. In total, for every dollar spent on the remote worker incentive itself, there has been an estimated $13.77 return in new local labor income to the region.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Making housing more accessible is great, but the impact of remote work won&rsquo;t be cheaper house prices for everyone. While people who formerly lived in urban areas and can now move to the periphery would likely see a reduction in their housing costs, those who already live there, or who live in more affordable cities, would see their housing costs increase. While the average cost of housing would decline in this scenario, the differential impacts are important for policymakers to consider so that they preempt unwanted displacement by liberalizing zoning laws.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Remote work and the climate</h2>
<p>Density is a carbon mitigation tool. Densely populated areas can benefit the most from transit and walkability. They can also <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/1/26/14388942/building-energy-use-density">reduce energy costs</a>. If fully remote work becomes possible as the vast majority of American localities plan for sprawl and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/06/07/todays-electric-vehicle-market-slow-growth-in-u-s-faster-in-china-europe/">electric vehicle growth remains sluggish</a>, it could exacerbate the climate unfriendliness of our built environment.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Both logic and empirical evidence suggest that developing more compactly, that is, at higher population and employment densities, lowers VMT [vehicle miles traveled]. Trip origins and destinations become closer, on average, and thus trip lengths become shorter, on average,&rdquo; reads a <a href="https://www.nap.edu/resource/12747/sr298summary.pdf">report</a> by the National Academies. Whether remote work has a negative carbon footprint relies on what types of communities people move to and how that influences their energy consumption and driving behavior.</p>

<p>Most evidence thus far has shown that as people have moved over the last year, they&rsquo;ve generally stayed within the same metro region but tended toward the suburbs. In May, Stanford economists Arjun Ramani and Nicholas Bloom termed this the &ldquo;<a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28876/w28876.pdf">donut effect</a>,&rdquo; with the hollowed-out center representing the declining demand for urban life during a pandemic that forced many urban amenities to shutter. This effect is concentrated in the 12 most-populous metro areas.</p>

<p>But these don&rsquo;t have to be your father&rsquo;s suburbs. Recode&rsquo;s Rani Molla <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/22714777/remote-work-from-home-city-suburbs-housing-traffic">has reported on the &ldquo;urbanization of the suburbs,&rdquo;</a> writing that while people are leaving cities for the suburbs, they are bringing their taste for city amenities with them &mdash; these new suburbanites like walkability and access to a diverse array of restaurants and stores. If suburbs become more walkable and transit-friendly, and our land use laws allow for mixed-use development such that housing can be built near job centers, shopping centers, and schools, it could mitigate the harms of this change. As always, <a href="https://usa.streetsblog.org/2017/07/26/if-americans-paid-for-the-parking-we-consume-wed-drive-500-billion-fewer-miles-each-year/comment-page-2/">every locality should stop subsidizing the cost of parking</a> and make it easier to take climate-friendly transportation.</p>

<p>The Stanford researchers note there isn&rsquo;t a significant amount of movement happening between metro areas, which indicates that at least so far, hybrid remote work is a more likely outcome than a large number of workers going fully remote.</p>

<p>Remote work may need more time for its true impact to be felt. While many people may have moved to the suburbs in a state where they already resided, that decision was likely influenced by their uncertainty around how long remote work would be permitted in the pandemic and after.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The carbon impact of fully remote work is highly uncertain. There are many reasons to think that it would be negative: People moving toward less dense areas without access to transit networks and into a land-use legal framework that incentivizes large single-family homes and sprawl does not bode well.</p>

<p>For some, remote work could eliminate commuting, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920921000687?via%3Dihub">which is a significant contributor to workers&rsquo; emissions</a>. As the Atlantic&rsquo;s Derek Thompson explained <a href="https://megaphone.link/VMP7676733938">in a recent interview on Vox&rsquo;s policy podcast <em>The Weeds</em></a><em>, </em>&ldquo;a culture where Zoom is considered a perfectly decent replacement&rdquo; could curb the <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/initiatives/cutting-aviation-pollution#:~:text=Air%20travel%20is%20also%20currently,course%20of%20an%20entire%20year.">most carbon-intensive travel of all: air travel</a>. Depending on a lot of factors, the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/did-zoom-kill-business-travel-ever-road-warriors-weigh-n1268744">reduction in flying</a> could outweigh any increase in commuting by car.</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s also possible that focusing on urban geography as a major part of the solution to the climate crisis is misguided. &ldquo;My bet would be that the energy sector-specific changes are more important than the future of remote work,&rdquo; Thompson said. That is, pushing the US to electrify vehicles and get more of its energy from low-carbon sources like nuclear, wind, solar, or hydropower is likely far more important than marginal changes in density.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Remote work and politics</h2>
<p>In recent years, Democrats have grown increasingly concerned as college-educated voters cluster in heavily liberal-leaning states. This exacerbates an Electoral College and Senate advantage for Republicans, whose constituency is more evenly distributed across more of the country.</p>

<p>Will Wilkinson outlined many of the political harms that have accompanied urbanization in a Niskanen Center research paper, <a href="https://www.niskanencenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Wilkinson-Density-Divide-Final.pdf">&ldquo;The Density Divide: Urbanization, Polarization, and Populist Backlash</a>.&rdquo; He argues that polarization has been amplified by &ldquo;the self-selection of temperamentally liberal individuals into higher education and big cities while leaving behind a lower-density population that is relatively uniform in white ethnicity, conservative disposition, and lower economic productivity.&rdquo;</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s not just that there are higher-paying jobs in Los Angeles than in Youngstown, Ohio &mdash; the nation has been segregating based on people&rsquo;s openness to experience and liberal attitudes.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23117598/Screen_Shot_2021_12_21_at_9.47.54_AM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Dense places vote for &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.niskanencenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Wilkinson-Density-Divide-Final.pdf&quot;&gt;Democrats&lt;/a&gt;. | Niskanen Center" data-portal-copyright="Niskanen Center" />
<p>Remote work could change some of this. While some people might still sort based on those characteristics and stay in deep blue states, others will find there are enough liberals in cities like Bozeman, Columbus, or Austin, to make do. Others still could forgo these preferences in favor of slashing their cost of living, deciding that it&rsquo;s fine to live in a neighborhood of the opposite political party as long as you can afford a pool.</p>

<p>As Arizona&rsquo;s population has grown in part from California emigrants (<a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2020/11/18/new-arizona-residents-come-from-california.html">one study showed</a> that 23 percent of all Arizona immigrants came from California) Democrats have netted benefits, winning both Senate seats and the state&rsquo;s 11 Electoral College votes in the 2020 presidential election. Increasing numbers of college-educated voters could advantage Democrats further in the state, as well as in places like Georgia, Florida, and Texas.</p>

<p>But the impact of more remote work might not be that straightforward: In August 2020, Thompson <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/just-small-shift-remote-work-could-change-everything/614980/">theorized</a> that a &ldquo;demographic shift could reshape American politics. A more evenly distributed liberal base could empower Democrats in the Sun Belt; accelerate the Rust Belt&rsquo;s conservative shift; strengthen the moderate wing of the party by forcing Democrats to compete on more conservative turf; and force the GOP to adapt its own national strategy to win more elections.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But an influx of well-educated, highly paid coastal expats could affect the political trends of existing residents in other, unexpected ways. Coastal emigrants&rsquo; views might change because part of what was making them Democrats was living in diverse and dense communities.</p>

<p>There&rsquo;s also a chance that in many of these states, existing institutions could stifle liberal sentiment.</p>

<p>At the local level, as long as these states&rsquo; governors and statehouses remain Republican, state preemption laws could hamstring localities from enacting policies that reflect an increasingly liberal electorate. Republican states have stepped in to make it <a href="https://grassrootschange.net/preemption-watch/#/category/plastics">illegal for localities to tax plastic bags for environmental reasons</a>, to <a href="https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2019/01/31/arkansas-supreme-court-puts-an-end-to-fayetteville-non-discrimination-ordinance-for-now">prevent localities from extending anti-discrimination protections to LGBTQ people</a>, and Indiana <a href="https://twitter.com/TransitCenter/status/1380184916965593092?s=20">attempted to cripple</a> a bus rapid transit system in Indianapolis.</p>

<p>As blue cities gain prominence in red states, it is likely to set up showdowns over the limits of municipal power. These fights will only intensify if left-of-center voters flock to electorally vital red and purple states.</p>

<p>Another important political trend is that newcomers will trigger NIMBY sentiment wherever they go. NIMBY-ism is a product of scarcity, not a deficiency solely found near the ocean, and as higher-income Americans move where their dollar goes further, existing community members are likely to balk at the changes.</p>
<div class="twitter-embed"><a href="https://twitter.com/TigerLilyHarv/status/1472399252320051200?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">View Link</a></div>
<p>As the New York Times&rsquo;s Conor Dougherty <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/business/economy/california-housing-crisis.html">reported</a> last February, &ldquo;The Californians Are Coming. So Is Their Housing Crisis.&rdquo; Locals are angry, Dougherty writes: &ldquo;in Boise, &lsquo;Go Back to California&rsquo; graffiti has been sprayed along the highways. The last election cycle was a referendum on growth and housing, and included a fringe mayoral candidate who campaigned on a promise to keep Californians out.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Localities have the opportunity to reduce the economic costs of newcomers and preemptively bring down the temperature by liberalizing their zoning laws and investing in market rate and affordable housing as well as enacting <a href="https://www.vox.com/22789296/housing-crisis-rent-relief-control-supply">anti-displacement measures</a> in order to reduce the conflict. But some conflict is inevitable; as <a href="https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/austin-car-clubs-gentrification/">one dispatch</a> from East Austin recounted, residents of a &ldquo;new luxury building&rdquo; began calling the police on a neighborhood tradition.</p>

<p>This past year shows that government can have a large role in shaping how remote work plays out. Expanding broadband access to ensure that the ability to do remote work is equitably distributed, liberalizing zoning laws, investing in amenities to attract knowledge economy workers, and ensuring that the gains from growth do not solely accumulate to the most well-off &mdash; that&rsquo;s all in policymakers&rsquo; hands.</p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jerusalem Demsas</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Black and Hispanic renters experience discrimination in almost every major American city]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/22815563/rental-housing-market-racism-discrimination" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/22815563/rental-housing-market-racism-discrimination</id>
			<updated>2021-12-08T10:52:38-05:00</updated>
			<published>2021-12-07T08:30:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Housing" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Racial discrimination in rental markets is alive and well. In a new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, researchers found rampant racial discrimination in American rental markets &#8212; specifically, that property managers are less likely to respond to prospective Black and Hispanic tenants when they inquire about open listings. Using a software [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p>Racial discrimination in rental markets is alive and well.</p>

<p>In a <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w29516">new working paper</a> from the National Bureau of Economic Research, researchers found rampant racial discrimination in American rental markets &mdash; specifically, that property managers are less likely to respond to prospective Black and Hispanic tenants when they inquire about open listings.</p>

<p>Using a software bot, the economists sent inquiries from fake renters to 8,476 property managers in the 50 largest US metropolitan housing markets. The bot assigned names to fictitious renters that would indicate whether the race of the inquirer was white, Black, or Hispanic.</p>

<p>The bot found that names perceived to be white got a response 5.6 percentage points more than Black-sounding names, and 2.8 percentage points more than Hispanic-sounding names.</p>

<p>Though the economists were using fabricated identities to test for discrimination, they also followed up to see what happened in the properties in real life. In what could become a major contribution to the field, the researchers find that a non-response to an inquiry from a Black or Hispanic renter &ldquo;lowers the probability that a renter of color will ultimately inhabit a given property by 17.3 percent.&rdquo; This is &ldquo;the first available evidence on the relationship between disparate treatment and subsequent rental housing outcomes.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The researchers, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign&rsquo;s Peter Christensen, University of Los Andes&rsquo; Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri, and Duke University&rsquo;s Christopher Timmins, found that discrimination isn&rsquo;t the same everywhere. The researchers find that for Black would-be renters, the most discriminatory region is the Midwest and the most discriminatory individual cities are Chicago, Los Angeles, and Louisville. For Hispanic would-be renters, the most discriminatory region is the Northeast and the most discriminatory individual cities are Louisville, Houston, and Providence.</p>

<p>In a handful of cities, researchers found that Black and Hispanic names receive more responses than white renters. Notably, Jacksonville (<a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/jacksonvillecityflorida,US/PST045219">31 percent Black</a>) and Columbus (<a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/columbuscityohio">29 percent Black</a>) for Black names and Phoenix (<a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/phoenixcityarizona/RHI725219">42.6 percent Hispanic</a>), Sacramento (<a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/sacramentocountycalifornia">23.6 percent Hispanic</a>), and Tampa (<a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/tampacityflorida">26.4 percent Hispanic</a>) for Hispanic names. It&rsquo;s possible that the large Black and Hispanic populations in these cities make it more difficult to discriminate without losing out on good renters, or, as Christensen noted, it could be an outlier, &ldquo;from a statistical perspective, 5-10 outliers [in] a sample of 100 cities would be expected by chance.&rdquo;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23068529/Screen_Shot_2021_12_06_at_5.28.13_PM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="This graphic shows response rate differences for Black renters on the left and Hispanic renters on the right relative to white renters. | &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29516/w29516.pdf&quot;&gt;Peter Christensen et al., National Bureau of Economic Research&lt;/a&gt;" data-portal-copyright="&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29516/w29516.pdf&quot;&gt;Peter Christensen et al., National Bureau of Economic Research&lt;/a&gt;" />
<p>You might be familiar with r&eacute;sum&eacute; studies where researchers will send in identical r&eacute;sum&eacute;s with just one thing changed, such as <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w9873/w9873.pdf">a 2003 study</a> by economists Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan that showed r&eacute;sum&eacute;s with names perceived as Black received 50 percent fewer callbacks than those with white-sounding names.</p>

<p>The new rental market discrimination study, the largest of its kind, was able to capitalize on the increasing migration of the rental market to the internet. That enabled the creation of software to make it a lot quicker to see how discriminatory rental markets are. It also allowed researchers to compare across all 50 of the top metropolitan areas simultaneously, something that would be much more difficult without advances in technology.</p>

<p>&ldquo;The objective is not just to develop this software for our own work but to actually make it available to other researchers and enforcement agencies,&rdquo; Christensen told Vox. &ldquo;HUD&rsquo;s only<strong> </strong>out there running a study every 10 years or maybe there&rsquo;s some civil rights organization in your market or maybe there isn&rsquo;t and [these studies have traditionally been] very expensive to run. And so nobody thinks that &#8230; there&rsquo;s monitoring really happening.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Historically, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has conducted much more time-consuming research called a &ldquo;paired study&rdquo; or an &ldquo;audit&rdquo; where they send two trained testers (one white and one person of color) to ask about housing units in 28 metropolitan areas across the country.</p>

<p>The testers are trained to present themselves as identically as possible outside of their differences in race and then record their experience. In their <a href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/publications/pdf/hud-514_hds2012.pdf">most recent 2012 study</a>, HUD found that while &ldquo;minority renters who call to inquire about recently advertised homes or apartments are rarely denied appointments that their white counterparts are able to make&rdquo; people of color &ldquo;are told about and shown fewer homes and apartments than whites&rdquo; and &ldquo;agents also quote slightly higher rents to blacks and Hispanics than to whites.&rdquo;</p>

<p>One of the problems with traditional audit studies is that they involve real people &mdash; who are going to act somewhat differently not only from each other but with different landlords or property managers. That means it could be difficult to isolate the exact effect of race over perhaps other differences exhibited during these interactions.</p>

<p>David Neumark, a University of California Irvine economist who has <a href="http://jhr.uwpress.org/content/47/4/1128">investigated the use of correspondence and audit studies</a> to test for discrimination in the labor market said in an email that both types have their uses: &ldquo;Correspondence studies allow much larger samples. Audit studies are far harder to do, and get smaller samples. But they do allow collection of more information &mdash; importantly including whether the final transaction (getting an apartment, a job, etc.) actually happens.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Researchers before Christensen, Sarmiento-Barbieri, and Timmins have adapted these studies for the internet age, since emails and other written missives can reduce the variability of in-person interactions. One <a href="https://excen.gsu.edu/workingpapers/GSU_EXCEN_WP_2011-05.pdf">study</a> by Georgia State University economists Andrew Hanson and Zackary Hawley finds a &ldquo;net level of discrimination of 4.5 percentage points against African American sounding names&rdquo; where they observe interactions over email. In Sweden, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119008000181">researchers looked</a> at discrimination against Muslims on a rental website via an audit study and found a 24.8 percent bias in favor of Swedish male names when compared to Muslim male names.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23068474/Screen_Shot_2021_12_06_at_4.57.52_PM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="A chart in a 2013 US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) report shows Black, Hispanic, and Asian renters are told about and shown fewer available units than equally qualified white renters. | &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.huduser.gov/portal/publications/pdf/hud-514_hds2012.pdf&quot;&gt;HUD&lt;/a&gt;" data-portal-copyright="&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.huduser.gov/portal/publications/pdf/hud-514_hds2012.pdf&quot;&gt;HUD&lt;/a&gt;" />
<p>None of this research can capture the totality of discrimination in the housing market. Some people might not even find out about potential housing options if information is disseminated differently for different groups &mdash; for example, info that spreads through word of mouth.</p>

<p>Even if Black or Hispanic renters do know about an open unit and do get a response from the landlord, they could still face discrimination when a property manager is deciding between different tenants or during the application process.</p>

<p>Despite the supposed protections of the Fair Housing Act, which bans discrimination on the basis of race, gender, and other protected classes, civil rights groups have traditionally borne the brunt of responsibility for detecting this discrimination. It&rsquo;s an expensive and time-consuming endeavor, limiting the frequency of oversight.</p>

<p>The development of this new tool could reduce some of that oversight burden &mdash; making it easier to consistently monitor at least one aspect of discrimination in the housing market.</p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p><strong>Correction, December 8, 10 am:&nbsp;</strong>A previous version of this article incorrectly attributed the tool&rsquo;s development. It was developed by University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign&rsquo;s Peter Christensen, University of Los Andes&rsquo;s Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri, and Duke University&rsquo;s Christopher Timmins.</p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jerusalem Demsas</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[I changed my mind on rent control]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/22789296/housing-crisis-rent-relief-control-supply" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/22789296/housing-crisis-rent-relief-control-supply</id>
			<updated>2021-12-08T15:18:38-05:00</updated>
			<published>2021-12-02T11:20:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Cities &amp; Urbanism" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Housing" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Renting has a stability problem. As a renter, you don&#8217;t know if your landlord might sell your home, turn it into condos, or evict you. You don&#8217;t know if you can make any lasting ties in a community. Part of this stability problem is a cost problem. Renting can already be very expensive in America. [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="People march in Chicago, Illinois, on March 20 during a demonstration in support of Illinois lifting the ban on rent control. | Max Herman/NurPhoto via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Max Herman/NurPhoto via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23053446/GettyImages_1231847977.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	People march in Chicago, Illinois, on March 20 during a demonstration in support of Illinois lifting the ban on rent control. | Max Herman/NurPhoto via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Renting has a stability problem.</p>

<p>As a renter, you don&rsquo;t know if your landlord might sell your home, turn it into condos, or evict you. You don&rsquo;t know if you can make any lasting ties in a community. Part of this stability problem is a cost problem.</p>

<p>Renting can already be very expensive in America. According to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, the share of households who are rent-burdened (or who spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent) has been <a href="https://nlihc.org/resource/housing-cost-burden-low-income-renters-has-increased-significantly-last-two-decades#:~:text=GAO%20found%20that%20in%202017,renter%20households%20were%20cost%20burdened.">increasing</a>; in 2017, nearly half of all renter households in the US fit in the category. If your rent suddenly becomes unaffordable, you often have just a few short weeks to find alternative accommodations and move.</p>

<p>Now tenant advocates and officials in some cities across the US are reconsidering an oft-maligned policy: rent control.</p>
<iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3MH2HQUGUtS9QsmoNcgAjh?utm_source=generator&amp;theme=0" width="100%" height="232" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture"></iframe>
<p>As Bloomberg&rsquo;s Kriston Capps <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/rent-control-scored-a-big-election-night-victory">notes</a>, the policy is &ldquo;making a comeback.&rdquo; Santa Ana, California, <a href="https://www.santa-ana.org/latest-news/santa-ana-city-council-adopts-rent-stabilization-and-just-cause-eviction-ordinances">adopted a rent control ordinance</a>; in Boston, <a href="https://www.masslive.com/politics/2021/11/boston-mayor-michelle-wu-pushing-rent-control-with-gov-charlie-baker-state-lawmakers.html">voters elected a new mayor who ran in part on rent control</a>; and in St. Paul, Minnesota, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/rent-control-scored-a-big-election-night-victory">&ldquo;voters enacted one of the most stringent rent control policies in the nation.&rdquo;</a></p>

<p>Not all rent control policies are alike: Some programs cap annual rent increases or put limits on the absolute price of a unit; it can be granted to certain low-income people or applied to all buildings of a certain type.</p>

<p>Voters are backing these measures <a href="https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/04/14/wbur-poll-rent-control-supported-by-most-boston-voters">in response</a> to <a href="https://archive.kpcc.org/news/2018/02/06/80554/santa-ana-considers-rent-control-as-housing-costs/">the skyrocketing price of housing</a>.</p>

<p>But all of these policies share a problem if enacted as the exclusive solution to rising rents. As economists often stress, rent control fails to address the core issue of why housing is so expensive to begin with: lack of supply. In particular, states and cities have a bevy of rules and regulations regarding what kind and size of new homes can be built that overwhelmingly make it illegal or unprofitable to build small single-family homes, multi-family homes, and dense neighborhoods.</p>

<p>Despite economists&rsquo; consternation, demand for rent stabilization policies is growing, in particular in high-cost-of-living cities where a greater share of rent-burdened tenants are higher-income young people with political power. As historian Suleiman Osman explained in his book <em>The Invention of Brownstone Brooklyn</em>, New York City&rsquo;s history of rent control can be explained in part because a &ldquo;large number of white professional renters gave the [tenants] movement muscle unmatched in other cities.&rdquo; As higher-income professionals stay renters for longer, renters in America&rsquo;s biggest cities are gaining in political power.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.nmhc.org/research-insight/analysis-and-guidance/rent-control-laws-by-state/">According to the National Multifamily Housing Council</a>, as of September 2020, California, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Oregon, and Washington, DC, have some form of rent control either at the state level or below. (The number of units covered in each of those places could vary wildly.)</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s clear that these areas share something else in common: They have high-demand labor markets &mdash; superstar cities &mdash;<strong> </strong>where the rising cost of housing is largely due to localities&rsquo; reluctance to allow <a href="https://www.portlandmercury.com/blogtown/2021/11/26/37064855/how-will-oregon-address-its-growing-affordable-housing-crisis">more housing to be built</a> even as demand has shot through the roof.</p>

<p>Rent control should be understood as a remedy for displacement, rather than a solution to the spiraling cost of housing. It&rsquo;s best as a measure that can help keep current tenants from being displaced from their neighborhoods, and<strong> </strong>as part of the long-term project of solving America&rsquo;s housing shortage.</p>

<p>Both the case for and against rent control are more nuanced than their opponents give them credit for. There&rsquo;s also<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-does-economic-evidence-tell-us-about-the-effects-of-rent-control/"> little empirical research</a> on rent control. While economic theory indicates that rent control&rsquo;s costs are high (more on this later) &mdash; it was <a href="https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-15-minimum-wage-is-pretty-safe">only a few decades ago</a> when the field was largely unified in opposition to minimum wage policies. Basic economic theory held that the costs of implementing a minimum wage (namely, fewer jobs) would largely outweigh the benefits of higher wages. But after a <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/844350/impacts_of_minimum_wages_review_of_the_international_evidence_Arindrajit_Dube_web.pdf">flurry of empirical research</a> was conducted, researchers just didn&rsquo;t find the large costs to employment opportunities that they expected and minimum wage became a lot more popular among experts.</p>

<p>Rent control could be next.</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s become abundantly clear that even if states do begin to build more homes, it will take years if not decades to rebalance supply and make housing more affordable, and in the meantime millions of families will continue to suffer. Economists are right to be worried about the ways rent control could worsen the housing crisis, but rent control can work.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The case against rent control</h2>
<p>The fastest way &ldquo;to destroy a city, other than bombing.&rdquo;</p>

<p>This quote about rent control has been <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/RentControl.html#lfHendersonCEE2-145_footnote_nt389">attributed</a> to the late Assar Lindbeck, a Swedish economist who once chaired the prize committee for the economics Nobel, and it&rsquo;s the dominant sentiment of most economists. This statement is purposely hyperbolic, but Lindbeck wasn&rsquo;t kidding about economists&rsquo; instinctive disdain for the idea.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23057826/Screen_Shot_2021_12_02_at_9.04.03_AM.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="The University of Chicago’s Initiative on Global Markets surveys top economists at American universities. &lt;a href=&quot;https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/rent-control/&quot;&gt;This 2012 poll&lt;/a&gt; shows that the vast majority disagreed with the statement that rent control has had a “positive impact” on affordable housing. | University of Chicago Initiative on Global Markets" data-portal-copyright="University of Chicago Initiative on Global Markets" />
<p>The logic is simple: If you set a price ceiling below what the market price would be, you will reduce the incentive for people to supply that good. If you&rsquo;re a hatmaker and the government says you&rsquo;re not allowed to charge more than $5 for hats you&rsquo;ve been able to sell for $10, you&rsquo;ll probably stop making as many.</p>

<p>Of course, here we&rsquo;re not talking about hats, we&rsquo;re talking about housing. If fewer hats are produced, that&rsquo;s not great, but if fewer <em>homes</em> are produced, that&rsquo;s catastrophic. We&rsquo;re facing a <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210507_housing_supply.page">national housing shortage of 3.8 million homes</a>, and it&rsquo;s the leading contributor to the spiraling cost of housing and modern homelessness. It also could <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-does-economic-evidence-tell-us-about-the-effects-of-rent-control/">induce landlords to reduce their investment or upkeep of properties</a> if they see their profits being slashed.</p>

<p>Scarcity empowers the people in control of the scarce resource, and rent control does nothing to make housing less scarce. Landlords can still find ways to extract income more in line with the true price of the apartment in a housing-scarce city. In Berlin, despite the city&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-02/berlin-s-rent-controls-are-proving-to-be-the-disaster-we-feared">rent control laws</a>, renters are being asked to pay thousands of euros for furniture or appliances in order to get a lease. Bloomberg&rsquo;s Alice Kantor <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-18/what-is-world-s-craziest-real-estate-market-renters-pay-heavy-price-in-berlin">reports</a> that &ldquo;one ad recently asked 25,000 euros ($28,300) up front for kitchen equipment, a TV and furniture.&rdquo; The ad was for a one-bedroom apartment renting at 930 euros a month.</p>

<p>At best, critics say, rent control empowers one small group of people: the tenants who were living in buildings when the law was enacted.<strong> </strong>Arpit Gupta, a professor of finance and economics at New York University who said he is a &ldquo;little skeptical of rent control,&rdquo; explains that these policies often act as &ldquo;a one-time transfer of equity from landlords to current tenants.&rdquo; That is, instead of helping make renting permanently affordable, rent control policies just transfer the benefit of housing scarcity from<strong> </strong>the landlord to the current tenant.</p>

<p>The problem is that there are a lot more &ldquo;future tenants&rdquo; than there are current tenants, and at some point even current tenants will likely move. So while there is a clear benefit to existing renters when a rent control ordinance is passed, it&rsquo;s important to look at what happens to rents and renters in aggregate.</p>

<p>That&rsquo;s what Stanford economists Rebecca Diamond, Tim McQuade, and Franklin Qian did in a <a href="https://web.stanford.edu/~diamondr/DMQ.pdf">2019 paper focused on rent control in San Francisco</a>. They found that the policy did make beneficiaries 10 to 20 percent more likely to remain in their homes in the medium to long term than tenants who weren&rsquo;t covered by rent control. They also note that &ldquo;the effects of rent control on tenants are stronger for racial minorities, suggesting rent control helped prevent minority displacement from San Francisco.&rdquo;</p>

<p>However, landlords directly affected by rent control pivoted away from providing rental units towards other types of real estate, like condos (<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-does-economic-evidence-tell-us-about-the-effects-of-rent-control/">this could lead to more evictions</a> as landlords seek to avoid rent control policies). Overall, the authors find it reduced the available rental housing by 15 percent and that the policy<strong> </strong>&ldquo;likely drove up citywide rents, damaging housing affordability for future renters.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Alternatively, Brigham Young University economist David Sims&rsquo;s 2006 <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094119006000635">paper</a> on rent control in Massachusetts found that there was basically no effect on the construction of new housing.</p>

<p>Economists also have distributional concerns. When landlords cannot discriminate based on price, they discriminate in other ways, for instance on their religious preferences, in favor of people who are members of their own race and class, or even against families with children. There is <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/5/26/22453293/housing-supply-shortage-discrimination-real-estate-cover-letters">evidence this happens in the housing market already</a>, to be fair. While there are laws on the books to prevent this sort of discrimination, almost no one is even attempting to enforce them. Even with a robust enforcement apparatus, it would be very hard to catch.</p>

<p>In another <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejeap/v11y2011i1n27.html">paper</a>, Sims&rsquo;s findings indicate that relatively richer people are more likely to benefit from rent control policies, and according to a review of the literature <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/99646/rent_control._what_does_the_research_tell_us_about_the_effectiveness_of_local_action_1.pdf">by the Urban Institute</a>, Black and Hispanic residents are underrepresented in rent-controlled units. The authors ultimately conclude that rent control&rsquo;s &ldquo;benefits are concentrated among wealthier, whiter households.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Economists are right that rent control does not fix the fundamental problem of the rising cost of housing and its application to that problem is wrongheaded. Rent control needs to be seen not as a tool for addressing the cost of housing (<a href="https://www.vox.com/22535542/housing-crisis-shortage-biden-wally-adeyemo">we know how to do that!</a>) but as a stabilization tool for tenants and communities that are continually shunted from neighborhood to neighborhood by economic forces they often have no say in.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The case for rent control — or how I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb</h2>
<p>In a world where housing is a scarce resource, some tenants have to lose.</p>

<p>There aren&rsquo;t enough homes, so how do we decide who gets them? Without rent control, the losers are<strong> </strong>people with less money; those who cannot afford increases in rent are forced out of their neighborhoods, and people who can afford them get to stay or move in. Rent control gives policymakers a chance to <a href="https://www.theurbanist.org/2019/08/05/the-case-for-rent-control/">redistribute the pains of scarcity in the near term</a>. Even research that concludes rent control is on net harmful to tenants in the long term concedes that it reduces displacement for current tenants.</p>

<p>This is especially important because fixing the underlying issue in America&rsquo;s high-cost cities and suburbs is a long-term solution that will require millions of new homes to be built. Even if everyone agreed right now to pursue the goal of housing abundance, it could still take decades for the housing markets to rebalance.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23053554/AP20307815664408.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="People hold up signs at a rally in favor of more housing in January 2020 in Oakland, California. | Jeff Chiu/AP" data-portal-copyright="Jeff Chiu/AP" />
<p>So<strong> </strong>what is to be done for the tens of millions of rent-burdened families before we can reach housing abundance? Should we simply allow the cycles of displacement and segregation to occur without any policy intervention?</p>

<p>Rent control is the answer.</p>

<p>Of course, it&rsquo;s not the whole answer. A well-designed rent control policy exists in tandem with eliminating exclusionary zoning laws, reducing the cost of housing construction, and providing universal vouchers to help low-income tenants afford their rent.</p>

<p>Even research that is done by those skeptical of rent control finds that it is at least successful at reducing displacement of current tenants, in particular the Stanford study that found rent control reduced displacement by up to 20 percent. According to the Urban Institute <a href="https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/99646/rent_control._what_does_the_research_tell_us_about_the_effectiveness_of_local_action_1.pdf">review</a>, &ldquo;If rent control is judged on its ability to promote stability for people in rent-controlled units, evidence has generally found it to be successful.&rdquo; <strong> </strong></p>

<p>Then the question becomes the policy design.</p>

<p>There,<strong> </strong>the devil is in the details. To encourage people to still build more homes, it is important to exempt future construction from rent control and to allow landlords to increase rents annually by a moderate sum tied to inflation. Policymakers also want to make sure there are incentives to keep existing rental stock well-maintained; one way to do so is by allowing for vacancy decontrol so that when a tenant moves out, a landlord can upgrade the unit and charge a higher rent to the next tenant.</p>

<p>When it comes to worries that rent control policies might increase evictions (both formal and informal) as landlords are motivated by profit to convert to condos or force their tenants to vacate so they can renovate, the answer is that, similarly to all types of abuses of power in the market, there needs to be more oversight. A few policies that cities and states should enact are:</p>
<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="https://localhousingsolutions.org/housing-policy-library/just-cause-eviction-policies/">Just cause eviction statutes</a>, which would require the landlord to justify kicking a tenant out of the property. The government can define what a reasonable justification is, including but not limited to failure to pay rent, desire to add another tenant to the renter’s lease, violation of lease terms, illegal activity, etc. </li><li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/opinion/evictions-homelessness-legal-aid.html">Right to counsel</a> to ensure that tenants are not just getting steamrolled in these types of hearings. <a href="https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2321&#038;context=ulj">Numerous studies</a> have pointed to the fact that the vast majority of tenants are going unrepresented by counsel. </li><li><a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/8/4/22606530/eviction-moratorium-rent-relief-rental-registry">A rental registry</a> to keep track of tenants and landlords. One of the biggest factors leading to informal evictions is that the power imbalance between very low-income tenants and landlords leads the former to simply comply when told to leave their home, <a href="https://grad.washington.edu/student-alumni-profiles/informal-evictions-are-on-the-rise-during-the-pandemic-with-people-of-color-most-at-risk-for-housing-insecurity/">even if they have the right to stay</a>. By creating a rental registry, landlords will know that their lease terms are being monitored by local officials and that they will be easily caught if they informally or illegally evict tenants in order to get around rent control laws.</li></ul>
<p>Skeptics will correctly note that implementing all these ideas would increase the costs of renting out properties, which might push some landlords toward condo conversions or away from developing new units. That&rsquo;s why it&rsquo;s important to simultaneously make it cheaper and easier to build and renovate housing. As almost all urban economists have noted, the primary constraint on housing supply in America&rsquo;s cities and suburbs is the regulatory morass that drives up the cost of developing and producing new homes and makes it nearly impossible for a landlord to extract multiple rents from a single lot by building multi-family housing.</p>

<p>&ldquo;The limits on housing construction are basically about land use,&rdquo; explained J.W. Mason, an economics professor at John Jay College. &ldquo;In an exurban setting, you have a lot of vacant land and developers are deciding &lsquo;is it profitable enough to build something here,&rsquo; and that&rsquo;s what determines whether new housing gets built. So you could imagine in an environment like that, rent control might [have] a significant effect on new construction. &#8230; In a dense, major city &#8230; the limit on housing is not how profitable developers expect to be but on the amount of land that&rsquo;s available for developing housing.&rdquo;</p>

<p>There is, of course, the NIMBY problem. Rent control might insulate its beneficiaries from rising rents leading to greater opposition to new housing development. But there&rsquo;s evidence that <a href="https://www.vox.com/22650806/gentrification-affordable-housing-low-income-housing">some renters oppose new housing out of fears of displacement</a> and will <a href="https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/media/imp/harvard_jchs_hankinson_2017_renters_behave_like_homeowners_0.pdf">change their minds once rent control insulates them from quickly rising rents</a>.</p>

<p>Opponents of rent control might chafe under the insinuation that there are no alternatives to rent control. One of the best ideas is a social insurance program, proposed by Diamond and endorsed by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-01-18/yup-rent-control-does-more-harm-than-good?sref=QFCZ3YPm">economist Noah Smith</a>, that would entail<strong> </strong>the government compensating renters via tax credits or direct payments if they see inordinate rent hikes. It<strong> </strong>could be funded by taxes or fees levied on landlords, reducing the distortionary effects of rent control that is not equally applied.</p>

<p>Instituting demand-side programs like this under conditions of extreme scarcity comes with baggage of its own. Namely, the increased money in tenants&rsquo; pockets is passed through to the landlord in the form of higher rents. However, a social insurance program in tandem with making it easier to build new housing units could also be a good idea, though the policy design of such a program is more complicated than a rent control policy.</p>

<p>Rent control does not and will not fix the underlying cost problem, and in a vacuum, a new rent control policy would likely exacerbate the supply crisis. But rent control as a tool for reducing displacement and as a part of a broader housing policy in high-cost cities and suburbs is necessary. Economists may be wary now, but if they don&rsquo;t get on board and help design these policies, cities may be doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past.</p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Jerusalem Demsas</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Democrats have no plan to fight housing inflation]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2021/11/11/22774773/inflation-housing-market-home-prices-biden-build-back-better" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2021/11/11/22774773/inflation-housing-market-home-prices-biden-build-back-better</id>
			<updated>2021-11-11T13:57:58-05:00</updated>
			<published>2021-11-11T10:50:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Housing" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Inflation has taken center stage, and the White House desperately wants its signature bill to be the solution. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that in October, its main measure of inflation saw an increase of 6.2 percent, &#8220;the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 1990.&#8221; The official response was to [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="“Sold” signs are displayed in the windows of new townhomes in Sumter, South Carolina, in July. | Micah Green/Bloomberg via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Micah Green/Bloomberg via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23004043/GettyImages_1233869745.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	“Sold” signs are displayed in the windows of new townhomes in Sumter, South Carolina, in July. | Micah Green/Bloomberg via Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p>Inflation has taken center stage,<strong> </strong>and the White House desperately wants its signature bill to be the solution.</p>

<p>On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2021/11/10/22775092/inflation-cpi-october-economy-biden-fed">announced</a> that in October, its main measure of inflation saw an increase of 6.2 percent, &ldquo;the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 1990.&rdquo; The official response was to argue that <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/10/28/22748554/biden-budget-build-back-better-democrats-child-care-taxes">the Build Back Better plan</a>, President Biden&rsquo;s social spending package, is the path forward to fighting inflation. This line is not a new one.</p>

<p>&ldquo;If your primary concern right now is inflation, you should be even more enthusiastic about this plan,&rdquo; Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/07/19/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-economy-3/">said</a> back in July.</p>

<p>On Wednesday, Washington Post <a href="https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1458454829467111424?s=20">reporters</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1458467072191705091?s=20">noted</a> that the White House&rsquo;s message on combating inflation hasn&rsquo;t changed, and that lowering prices for things like housing, prescription drugs, and child care is &ldquo;the best answer to inflationary pressures.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But one plank of the White House&rsquo;s argument bears more scrutiny: the idea that its planned investments in housing will help combat inflation. At the end of October, the White House released the latest iteration of the Build Back Better <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/10/28/build-back-better-framework/">plan</a>. Under the heading &ldquo;Bringing Down Costs, Reducing Inflationary Pressures, and Strengthening the Middle Class,&rdquo; it highlighted its <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/10/28/build-back-better-framework/">investments</a> in housing.</p>

<p>Over the course of the pandemic, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA">home prices have skyrocketed</a>; the underlying issue is simply that there are <a href="https://www.vox.com/22264268/covid-19-housing-insecurity-housing-prices-mortgage-rates-pandemic-zoning-supply-demand">not enough homes</a> for the people who need them (in particular in the places where people need to live for their jobs). This supply crisis is forcing a growing number of people to bid on a small number of available homes, thus increasing prices.</p>

<p>But not all &ldquo;housing investments&rdquo; are created equal. Generally, there are two ways you can attack an affordability crisis: 1) You work to make the item itself less expensive (supply-side policies), or 2) You give people more money to be able to afford the item (demand-side policies).</p>

<p>Both have their place in policymaking. But if you pursue demand-side policies when you are facing a massive supply shortage, you end up increasing prices, not decreasing them. And the nation is facing <a href="http://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210507_housing_supply.page">an estimated 3.8 million unit shortage</a>.</p>

<p>The White House estimates that, over 10 years, its plan will &ldquo;enable the construction, rehabilitation, and improvement of more than 1 million affordable homes.&rdquo; The words &ldquo;rehabilitation&rdquo; and &ldquo;improvement&rdquo; are doing a lot of work here; the number of new affordable homes that will actually be created is likely just a small fraction of that number.</p>

<p>While some of the money is going toward building new homes, the bill also contains subsidies for homeownership and renting. In a vacuum, this sounds great! But given that the supply of affordable homes is at a concerning low, the subsidies could put upward pressure on prices, especially since it will likely take a lot longer for homes to actually get built than it will to disburse subsidies.</p>

<p>This is particularly concerning for the low-income renters who don&rsquo;t get the rental subsidies &mdash; in one <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272701000810?casa_token=5OurlyLj_xUAAAAA:J2i1oLXTr5J7uczYyD359J8C2Fvsz-C3lCHiIpFZjBc--M5nmlnrMtJwrcInQQty4l0NYx0vp0U">study</a>, increasing vouchers raised rents by 16 percent on average, and &ldquo;caused [an] $8.2 billion increase in the total rent paid by low-income non-recipients while only providing a subsidy of $5.8 billion to recipients.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But, crucially, the reason that rents rise for low-income tenants in these situations is because the subsidy comes without increasing the supply of low-income housing. Both have to be accomplished together in order to actually achieve the goal of affordability.</p>

<p>The White House knows this. <a href="https://www.vox.com/22535542/housing-crisis-shortage-biden-wally-adeyemo">In June</a>, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo wrote a memo targeted at Congress on the issue, saying, &ldquo;Critically, the Biden-Harris Administration is undertaking an historic shift in U.S. housing policy by focusing on supply constraints and the availability of affordable housing units, including multifamily rental units.&rdquo;</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s looking like much less of a historic shift now.</p>

<p>The major constraint on building housing in the places where people are demanding it the most is zoning laws. These laws restrict what kinds of homes can be built and where, and regulate the size of homes to the point that smaller or &ldquo;starter&rdquo; homes are becoming incredibly scarce. For instance, a law mandating that lots of land be no less than 4,000 square feet means that starter homes (<a href="https://myhome.freddiemac.com/blog/research-and-analysis/20211013-starter-homes">smaller than 1,400 square feet) are illegal</a>. The <a href="https://www.vox.com/22252625/america-racist-housing-rules-how-to-fix">history behind these laws is complicated</a>, but essentially they are a way for some homeowners to block change in their communities, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/22252625/america-racist-housing-rules-how-to-fix">in their original form were a tool of segregationists</a>.</p>

<p>Beyond even small, single-family homes, it is illegal in most of the United States to build duplexes or small apartment buildings that could bring down the cost of housing. The White House has repeatedly acknowledged this problem, but in the Build Back Better bill, Democrats have metaphorically thrown up their hands, abrogating responsibility for the driving force<em> </em>behind skyrocketing home prices.</p>

<p>The best way to have tackled this problem would have been to tie the dollars in the bipartisan infrastructure framework to zoning reform. Iowa law professor Greg Shill suggested tying existing highway dollars to zoning reform, quipping <a href="https://twitter.com/greg_shill">that</a> &ldquo;there&rsquo;s no reason Iowans should be subsidizing a highway from Silicon Valley to SF when the Valley makes it illegal to build homes under $1M.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Essentially, if California wants federal dollars to build highways or transit, it&rsquo;s going to need to reform policies like <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-26/to-save-the-planet-kill-minimum-parking-mandates">parking minimums</a> and minimum lot sizes to get it. Instead, states are being handed money from the federal government to construct <a href="https://www.vox.com/22534714/rail-roads-infrastructure-costs-america">transportation networks that exclude large swaths of the American public from using them</a>.</p>

<p>The federal government has held highway funding hostage for other reasons in the past &mdash; notably was the <a href="https://alcoholpolicy.niaaa.nih.gov/the-1984-national-minimum-drinking-age-act">1984 National Minimum Drinking Age Act</a>, which &ldquo;requires that States prohibit persons under 21 years of age from purchasing or publicly possessing alcoholic beverages as a condition of receiving State highway funds.&rdquo; President Ronald Reagan also <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/07/four-times-the-government-held-highway-funding-hostage/454167/">conditioned highway dollars on setting a national minimum speed limit</a>; this was later repealed, which <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2724439/">one study shows</a> may have cost over 12,500 lives</p>

<p>If Democrats are serious about attacking housing inflation, they should put real money into incentivizing states to hold localities accountable. States are ultimately in control of local zoning policy; California, for instance, recently effectively <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/9/17/22679358/california-newsom-duplex-single-family-zoning">banned single-family-only zoning</a> statewide.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Exclusionary zoning is a product of state law, and if we can get states to address that through funding incentives, I think that that could lead to some real change at the local level,&rdquo; Phil Tegeler, executive director of the civil rights group Poverty and Race Research Action Council, <a href="https://www.vox.com/22252625/america-racist-housing-rules-how-to-fix">told Vox earlier this year</a>. &ldquo;Local governments have no inherent authority that&rsquo;s not granted to them by state government.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Barring that, national Democrats should, as Jain Family Institute fellow and housing expert Paul Williams <a href="https://twitter.com/PEWilliams_/status/1458481310968815625">suggested</a>, cut &ldquo;all the little toy programs and homeownership subsidies and pour that money into the Housing Trust Fund for new construction.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But perhaps Democrats aren&rsquo;t serious about stopping housing inflation. In his statement about Wednesday&rsquo;s inflation numbers, Biden touted that &ldquo;home values are up,&rdquo; as evidence that the economic recovery is progressing. It&rsquo;s a window into the confused nature of American housing policymaking that the government cannot decide whether it&rsquo;s interested in bringing down the price of homes or increasing it.</p>
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