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	<title type="text">Li Zhou | Vox</title>
	<subtitle type="text">Our world has too much noise and too little context. Vox helps you understand what matters.</subtitle>

	<updated>2025-01-15T15:55:58+00:00</updated>

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			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[What happens when a wildfire reaches a city?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/climate/394165/los-angeles-wildfires-cities" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=394165</id>
			<updated>2025-01-15T10:55:58-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-01-09T10:26:09-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Climate" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Explainers" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[We’re making this story accessible to all readers as a public service. At Vox, our mission is to help everyone access essential information that empowers them. Support our journalism by becoming a member today. Multiple major wildfires, fanned by unusually strong seasonal winds, are currently burning through the Los Angeles area, leaving devastation in their [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="A wildfire burns in a California city, illuminating a line of trees." data-caption="Firefighters stand below as brush and trees burn during the Sunset Fire near Hollywood Boulevard in the Hollywood Hills in Los Angeles on January 8, 2025. | Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/01/gettyimages-2192438838.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Firefighters stand below as brush and trees burn during the Sunset Fire near Hollywood Boulevard in the Hollywood Hills in Los Angeles on January 8, 2025. | Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none"><em>We’re making this story accessible to all readers as a public service. At Vox, our mission is to help everyone access essential information that empowers them. Support our journalism by <a href="https://www.vox.com/support-now?itm_campaign=jan-2025-critical&amp;itm_medium=site&amp;itm_source=cliff">becoming a member today</a>.</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.vox.com/climate/394005/palisades-wildfire-los-angeles-santa-ana-winds-explainer">Multiple major wildfires</a>, fanned by unusually strong seasonal winds, are currently burning through the Los Angeles area, leaving devastation in their wake.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-08/fire-weather-fierce-winds-los-angeles">Thus far, those fires have led to at least five fatalities</a>, massive evacuations, and significant damage to more than 2,000 buildings.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Though destructive fire seasons have become increasingly common in California, it’s still relatively rare to see a <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/cities-arent-supposed-to-burn-like-this-anymore-especially-lahaina/">major urban area</a> facing fires in the way Los Angeles now is. But as populations have grown in <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/americans-are-moving-into-danger-zones/">communities that are close to vegetation</a> and open space, experts told Vox, the risks of wildfires moving into denser, urban areas has increased. That dynamic is compounded by climate change, <a href="https://www.vox.com/22538401/texas-heat-wave-weather-definition-record-temperature-climate-change">which has fueled extreme&nbsp;heat</a> and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/climate-change-contributed-extreme-wildfires-california/story?id=117475669">parched the landscape</a> in regions like Southern California that are already susceptible to wildfires.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Collectively, these factors mean that wildfires may become more frequent in urban areas — and while cities do have some safeguards in place against these natural disasters, there are dangerous sources of fuel in them, too.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Urban fires “have become more common and severe,” says fire historian and Arizona State University professor emeritus Steve Pyne. “A problem that we thought we had fixed has returned.”&nbsp;</p>

<iframe frameborder="0" height="200" src="https://playlist.megaphone.fm/?e=VMP5967059152" width="100%"></iframe>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>What are the risks of wildfires moving into urban areas?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For places that are located near vegetation, as many parts of Los Angeles are, the fire risk can be high.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“In the Southern California urban areas … we see a highly dense, large urban area butting right up to highly flammable shrub ecosystems,” says Mark Schwartz, a University of California Davis conservation scientist.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">These cities have sections that exist in what researchers <a href="https://www.usfa.fema.gov/wui/what-is-the-wui.html">call the wildland-urban interface, or WUI</a>, where human development meets “undeveloped wildland” and vegetation. That means these populated areas are close to or intersect with natural ones like forests and grasslands.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Such adjacency to vegetation — especially in regions like the arid Western US, which is prone to fires — directly increases a city’s risk because blazes that typically begin in brush and shrubbery can move quickly through abundant fuel sources.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That danger is especially acute for Los Angeles right now, as Santa Ana wind gusts hit <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/live/pacific-palisades-fire-updates-los-angeles">nearly 100 miles per hour</a> — potentially carrying flames rapidly from where they begin.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In general, more people have also been moving into wildland-urban interface spaces, increasing the population and activity in these areas, says Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University. That means more risk to humans living there, and also more potential for fires to start. While lightning strikes can and often do spark wildfires, most blazes are caused by people; past conflagrations have started because of campfires, an irresponsibly discarded cigarette, or downed power lines.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Where there are humans, there&#8217;s plentiful sources of ignition, and where those sources of ignition are near vegetation that can burn, that elevates the risk,” Diffenbaugh said.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.ifaw.org/journal/climate-change-wildfires#:~:text=There%20is%20a%20proven%20connection,and%20more%20extreme%20fire%20behaviour.">Climate change only amplifies such hazards</a>: The clearest signal that climate change is influencing the severity of fires is the rising temperatures, which lead to more fuels, such as dry vegetation, that are primed to burn.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Cities that are more “hardscaped” (comprised of materials like concrete and metal) and farther from sources of vegetation have lower fire risk. Those that have greenery can also make themselves more fire resistant with mitigation practices like prescribed burns (controlled fires meant to simultaneously reduce fire risk and promote healthy vegetation growth), more native plants, and less vegetation near structures.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>What fuel sources exist in cities that could keep major fires churning?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Homes, as well as vegetation, can serve as fuel for fires. Other structures like natural gas tanks and fuel depots can exacerbate blazes if they catch on fire, says Stephanie Pincetl, a University of California Los Angeles professor of environment and sustainability.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">According to Schwartz, “Once a fire moves into an urban area, house to house ignitions becomes the biggest concern.” Homes built of wood can be flammable, and embers can also be blown into structures via vents and windows, so a house can catch fire and burn from the inside, even if the exterior is fire-proof. Free-standing single-family homes — compared to row homes, which often share walls with neighboring buildings — can be especially vulnerable to fires because of how many exterior-facing walls they have and the number of different points where a fire can catch, Pincetl notes.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In cities like Los Angeles, drier vegetation like palm trees can also provide fuel for wildfires.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>What’s the worst damage we’ve seen wildfires do to cities in recent memory?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Camp Fire, which took place in northern central California in 2018, is the deadliest in state history. It caused 85 fatalities, destroyed more than 18,000 structures — including burning almost completely through the town of Paradise, California — and burned over 153,000 acres.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It was so destructive due to similar conditions we’re witnessing in Los Angeles County this week: “High winds piled on top of dry fuels,” Schwartz said, emphasizing that the wind played a particularly significant role in spreading the flames. <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/the-terrifying-science-behind-californias-massive-camp-fire/">As Wired’s Matt Simon explained,</a> the wind during the Camp Fire helped carry “billions” of embers, which started a number of small fires farther from the front lines of the main blaze. Those embers ignited homes and other structures across Paradise — making the fire tougher to contain.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Many homes within Paradise were also more vulnerable to fire. <a href="https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-11-08/its-been-5-years-since-californias-deadliest-wildfire-can-we-stop-it-from-happening-again">Almost all the homes in town</a> had been built prior to 2008, when California imposed a new fire-safe building code that requires the use of certain materials for building exteriors and roofs, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-11-08/its-been-5-years-since-californias-deadliest-wildfire-can-we-stop-it-from-happening-again">the Los Angeles Times reported.</a>&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The leveling of Paradise was devastating: Before the fire, <a href="https://sf.curbed.com/2019/7/12/20692079/town-destroyed-by-pg-e-fire-loses-92-percent-of-its-population">around 27,000 people</a> lived in the community. As of 2023, its population was <a href="https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-11-08/its-been-5-years-since-californias-deadliest-wildfire-can-we-stop-it-from-happening-again">fewer than 10,000</a> (though it has continued to rebound since the fire). The fires burning in Los Angeles County threaten a far denser urban area: Today, almost 10 million people live in Los Angeles County.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Both wind and ample dry vegetation have also contributed to the growth of the recent Los Angeles fires, which have spread as the area has experienced both <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-04/southern-california-officially-enters-drought-as-forecast-remains-bone-dry">moderate drought conditions</a> and a massive windstorm.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Experts say it’s “unlikely” that the current wildfires could damage all of Los Angeles due to both the diversity of landscapes in the city and the precautions that it — and other cities — have taken to strengthen firefighting forces and use more fire-resistant building materials such as plaster and concrete. “Cities used to be very, very flammable,” Pincetl said. “Over the decades, we have learned to build cities that are far less vulnerable to catching on fire.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“It used to be back in the late 1800s, for example, that entire cities would be lost because everything was made out of the same wood material,” Tim Brown, a researcher at the Desert Research Institute, told Vox. “In today’s built environment, there are varying building materials, especially in urban and commercial centers, that would allow for much easier fire control.”</p>

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			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The danger of Meta’s big fact-checking changes]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/393863/meta-mark-zuckerberg-fact-checking-trump" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=393863</id>
			<updated>2025-01-08T10:03:09-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-01-08T06:45:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Explainers" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[With less than two weeks before the new Trump administration takes office, Meta chief Mark Zuckerberg announced a sweeping set of policy changes that will do away with fact-checkers on the company’s platforms and reduce restrictions on the posts its users can share. Zuckerberg said the changes are meant to address political “bias” and curtail [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Mark Zuckerberg’s head with his mouth open as he speaks." data-caption="Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg at the Acquired LIVE event at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California, on September 10, 2024. | David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/01/gettyimages-2170596450.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg at the Acquired LIVE event at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California, on September 10, 2024. | David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">With less than two weeks before the new Trump administration takes office, Meta chief Mark Zuckerberg announced a sweeping set of policy changes that will do away with fact-checkers on the company’s platforms and reduce restrictions on the posts its users can share.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Zuckerberg said the changes are meant to address political “bias” and curtail “censorship” — echoing arguments that President-elect Donald Trump and his supporters have long made about the platform.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In lieu of fact-checkers, Facebook will employ a “Community Notes” model like the one used on X.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As it operates on X, Community Notes allows users to add context and corrections to other people’s posts, though studies show it <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3686967">can be slower</a> and <a href="https://ojs.aaai.org/index.php/ICWSM/article/view/31387">cover different subjects</a> than professional fact-checking.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Zuckerberg also said the site would relax its policies for moderating posts and allow more content on issues including “immigration and gender” instead of taking them down. (<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/meta-immigration-gender-policies-change/">According to a Wired review</a>, some of these changes appear to have already gone into effect.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For users interested in seeing more political content, Zuckerberg noted that Meta plans to reintroduce more of these posts into people’s feeds as well.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In a five-minute video announcing the changes, Zuckerberg said the fact-checkers Facebook has worked with were “too politically biased” and had harmed user trust, and jabbed at the Biden administration for the “censorship” it’s allegedly employed against Meta. (Zuckerberg didn’t specify what he meant by that claim, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/26/us/politics/supreme-court-biden-free-speech.html">though tech companies</a> have previously fielded requests from the Biden administration about removing posts related to Covid-19 misinformation and election fraud.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Broadly, Meta’s announcement signals a willingness among tech companies to cater to Trump as they seek to preserve their business prospects and avoid political retaliation from a frequent, strident critic. Its shifts in content moderation also have serious implications for the types of posts and misinformation that can spread on its platforms, which include Facebook, Instagram, and Threads.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I suspect we will see a rise in false and misleading information around a number of topics, as there will be an incentive for those who want to spread that kind of content,” Claire Wardle, an associate professor in communication at Cornell University, told Vox.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>What Meta has done</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Meta’s recent changes coincide with other moves Zuckerberg has made in an apparent attempt to get into Trump’s good graces, including a personal visit to Mar-a-Lago and the appointment of <a href="https://apnews.com/article/meta-facebook-zuckerberg-board-members-dana-white-199436c62c934ebb751b564f874ad2f6">Dana White</a>, the CEO of Ultimate Fighting Championship and a Trump ally, to Meta’s board of directors.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Below is a more detailed rundown of the changes Zuckerberg just announced, as well as other recent steps he’s taken.</p>

<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Changes to content moderation</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;</h3>

<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Replacing fact-checkers with Community Notes: </strong>Meta had <a href="https://www.facebook.com/formedia/blog/third-party-fact-checking-how-it-works">worked with 90 independent organizations</a> to fact-check posts that spread on its platforms. Those fact-checkers would append warning labels to false content, and Meta would also reduce the distribution of those posts. Zuckerberg has accused the fact-checkers of being politically biased, while providing no examples, and said they’ll be replaced with a Community Notes system that will be phased in over the coming months.&nbsp;</li>



<li><strong>Reducing content restrictions on topics like “immigration and gender:” </strong>Zuckerberg said the platforms will focus on removing posts that contain “illegal and high-severity violations” and allow more posts to stay up that they might have previously been flagged. Effectively, the company is cutting back on content moderation in general and taking down fewer posts on hot-button political issues.</li>



<li><strong>Bringing back politics content:</strong> Meta had previously downgraded politics content and reduced the distribution of it on its platforms, citing user requests for <a href="https://about.fb.com/news/2021/02/reducing-political-content-in-news-feed/">less of this content in their feeds</a>. Zuckerberg announced that Meta would be phasing political content back into users’ feeds due to changing demands.</li>



<li><strong>Moving content and moderation teams: </strong>In another bid to address alleged political bias, Zuckerberg said Meta’s content moderation team will move from California to Texas.&nbsp;</li>



<li><strong>Working with Trump to combat censorship by other countries: </strong>Zuckerberg committed to collaborating with Trump to fight censorship and regulations in other countries, pointing to the blocking of Meta apps in China and European tech policies he claimed were stifling innovation.</li>
</ul>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Donating to Trump’s inaugural fund and visiting Mar-a-Lago: </strong>Meta is among the tech firms donating $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund. Amazon has as well, and Apple CEO Tim Cook and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have made comparable personal donations. Zuckerberg, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, and Google’s Sergey Brin are also among the tech chiefs who’ve paid a personal visit to Trump at Mar-a-Lago.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Silicon Valley is bending the knee — with troubling consequences</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/361087/trump-silicon-valley-fundraising-musk-andreessen-horowitz">Vox’s Nicole Narea previously reported,</a> Zuckerberg is far from the only tech CEO to try to build a friendlier relationship with Trump as his second term approaches. A number of others, including Bezos — who <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/25/jeff-bezos-killed-washington-post-endorsement-of-kamala-harris-.html">killed a Washington Post editorial endorsement of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris</a> — have done the same.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Many of these efforts are driven by the goal of maintaining a friendlier regulatory climate, Narea reports, whether that’s less scrutiny of antitrust or more consideration for government contracts.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Efforts by businesses to cultivate ties across administrations are commonplace. But Zuckerberg’s and Bezos&#8217;s moves have raised additional concerns, given the impact they have on what millions of people read and, in Zuckerberg&#8217;s case, post.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Zuckerberg’s moves could shape the type of content that proliferates on Facebook, Instagram, and Threads, enabling misinformation to thrive unchecked. Not only will Facebook remove fact-checkers, but by dialing back moderation on topics like immigration and gender identity, which have already been the subject of rampant right-wing conspiracy theories, it could exacerbate an existing mis- and disinformation problem.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">X, formerly known as Twitter, has also rolled back its content moderation since Trump ally and Tesla CEO Elon Musk took over the site in late 2022. Since then, Musk elevated Community Notes as a way to crowdsource fact-checks.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Community Notes has been a mixed bag since it was implemented, says Erik Nisbet, a professor of policy analysis and communications at Northwestern University. Researchers have found that <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/3/7/pgae217/7686087">users are likely to trust</a> context offered via Community Notes more than a basic flag from a fact-checker, for example. But Community Notes are often slower than a professional fact-checker, meaning a false post could go viral before it gets checked. Additionally, Community Notes relies on the expertise and interest of the site’s users, whereas professional fact-checkers can offer expertise quickly on a wider range of key topics.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The changes in content moderation at X since Musk’s takeover could foreshadow similar results at Meta. A <a href="https://viterbischool.usc.edu/news/2024/11/a-platform-problem-hate-speech-and-bots-still-thriving-on-x/">USC study of English-language posts on X</a> from January 2022 to June 2023 found that hate speech had increased 50 percent on the site in that time, with use of transphobic slurs increasing 260 percent. Musk fired a number of content moderators when he took over in 2022 and began revamping the platform’s approach, including lifting suspensions for previously banned accounts.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Mark Zuckerberg argues that his role model for this change is Elon Musk and what he did on Twitter,” says Yotam Ophir, a University of Buffalo communications professor who studies misinformation. “So we can look at Twitter for answers, right? And if we do, we see chaos.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The potential spread of more misinformation and hateful content on Meta’s platforms is concerning, Nisbet told Vox, and could have significant effects on the quality of US democracy. Access to accurate information and the ability to hold political leaders accountable is a crucial differentiator for democratic states, he said, and as falsehoods are allowed to proliferate and spread, it weakens people’s access to trustworthy information and their ability to confront their political leaders.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Multiple recent events have illustrated the acute impact such misinformation can have. In September, <a href="https://www.vox.com/podcasts/372206/springfield-ohio-pets-haitian-immigrants-conspiracy">Trump amplified a lie about Haitian immigrants</a> eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, which had begun on Facebook. That lie went on to fuel property damage and threats against Haitian people in the city. Trump’s lies about FEMA aid workers in North Carolina following Hurricane Helene’s devastation also spread on social media, spurring distrust of the agency and even <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/21/trump-fema-threats-misinformation-hurricane-helene/">threats of violence toward government workers</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Without strong guardrails at Facebook, Instagram, and Threads, such misinformation could spread further and have even more dangerous consequences.</p>

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				<name>Li Zhou</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Trump wants “one big, beautiful bill.” Can he get it?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/393593/trump-congress-budget-reconciliation-tax-energy-immigration" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=393593</id>
			<updated>2025-01-07T12:26:19-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-01-07T10:40:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[With President Donald Trump’s second administration just weeks away, congressional Republicans are gearing up to execute on a wide-ranging legislative agenda touching on everything from taxes to immigration to fossil fuels. In a Monday interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt, Trump noted that his preference for doing so was “one big, beautiful bill,” but said [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Speaker of the House Mike Johnson stands talking to President-elect Donald Trump while making a pointing gesture." data-caption="US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA), left, talks to President-elect Donald Trump as they attend the 125th Army-Navy football game at Northwest Stadium on December 14, 2024, in Landover, Maryland. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/12/gettyimages-2189981947.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA), left, talks to President-elect Donald Trump as they attend the 125th Army-Navy football game at Northwest Stadium on December 14, 2024, in Landover, Maryland. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">With <a href="https://www.vox.com/21514447/trump-2020-second-term-policy-agenda">President Donald Trump’s second administration just weeks away,</a> congressional Republicans are gearing up to execute on a wide-ranging legislative agenda touching on everything from taxes to immigration to fossil fuels. In a <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5068853-trump-reconciliation-bill-republican-plan/">Monday interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt</a>, Trump noted that his preference for doing so was “one big, beautiful bill,” but said he’d be open to two.<span> </span><p class="p1"></p></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">To accomplish that, Republicans intend to use a <a href="https://www.vox.com/22242476/senate-filibuster-budget-reconciliation-process">process known as budget reconciliation</a>, which allows them to approve budget-related legislation with a simple majority in the Senate. Doing so <a href="https://www.vox.com/21424582/filibuster-joe-biden-2020-senate-democrats-abolish-trump">enables them to bypass filibuster rules</a>, which would otherwise require a bill to garner 60 votes to advance in the upper chamber. (In this case, with the Senate divided <a href="https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/senate/">53-47 in favor of Republicans</a>, passing a bill through normal order would also require Democratic votes.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There’s a catch for using this process, though, and it could become a major roadblock to parts of Trump’s agenda. As the name suggests, budget reconciliation is only intended to advance policies — such as spending and tax measures — that have a significant effect on the budget and not just an incidental one. Additionally, a restriction called the Byrd rule says that policies included in a budget reconciliation package aren’t supposed to affect Social Security or add to the deficit after 10 years. Provisions that don’t meet these standards typically get stripped out following an intensive review process, an outcome that has stymied both parties in the past.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Review of the legislation is done by congressional experts, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/02/26/971793277/who-the-senate-parliamentarian-who-ruled-against-a-minimum-wage-increase">including the Senate parliamentarian</a> — a nonpartisan official who advises on the interpretation of congressional rules — to determine whether a bill meets these parameters. Lawmakers have the option to ignore the parliamentarian’s judgments, but it’s not common, and new Senate Majority Leader John Thune has already said <a href="https://x.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1876279723296510285">Republicans should not do so</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There’s still a lot that lawmakers can do using reconciliation. In 2022, Democrats were able to pass the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23293725/kyrsten-sinema-inflation-reduction-act-climate-taxes">Inflation Reduction Act</a> (IRA), which included expansive clean energy tax credits, and in 2021, they approved the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/3/10/22320350/biden-sign-stimulus-bill-covid-19">American Rescue Plan</a>, which included Covid-19 aid and an expanded child tax credit.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2017, Republicans similarly advanced the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/2/16720052/senate-republicans-pass-tax-bill">Tax Cuts and Jobs Act</a> using this process, and will likely look to extend those tax cuts in their upcoming package.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Other policies aren’t likely to pass muster if their primary impact isn’t budgetary, however. That was previously the case when <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/2/25/22299034/15-dollar-minimum-wage-senate-parliamentarian">Democrats tried to include a federal $15 minimum wage in the American Rescue Plan</a>, and when they attempted <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-09-19/parliamentarian-decision-on-pathway-to-citizenship">to include a path to citizenship for DACA recipients</a> in a version of the Build Back Better bill. Both were removed following the parliamentarian’s ruling, and the same could be done in a prospective Republican bill, including on issues like immigration and energy, to measures that aren’t primarily focused on spending and taxation.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>What the GOP can do via reconciliation</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Tax cuts and efforts to roll back tax credits are among the policies that have been approved via reconciliation in the past and that are likely to have limited issues moving forward via this process again. In this case, that would include GOP plans to extend <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/12/18/18146253/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-stock-market-economy">the tax cuts the party passed in 2017</a>, such as changes to individual tax brackets and business deductions. It also includes potential efforts to repeal clean energy tax credits that Democrats approved as part of the IRA in 2022, including tax credits for electric vehicles.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Any tax cut — as long as it isn’t to Social Security and as long as it doesn&#8217;t add to the deficit beyond the decade — is fair game,” Marc Goldwein, the senior vice president and <a href="http://www.crfb.org/">senior policy director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a>, told Vox. “The entire Inflation Reduction Act was done through reconciliation, and it could be reversed through reconciliation or modified through reconciliation.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Policies that include more spending for immigration-related purposes — as long as they don’t touch discretionary funds — would likely be fine as well, Goldwein said. Republicans are constrained when it comes to passing new immigration policies using reconciliation, but they could, for instance, allocate more spending for a border wall, border patrol agents, and detention of immigrants at the border.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Additional funds for various purposes — e.g., construction of the wall — have been deemed valid by the parliamentarian, since the spending is the primary purpose of the provision,” says Shai Akabas, director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “Funding for the IRS that was included in the Inflation Reduction Act would be one good example of this type of provision.” </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the IRA, Democrats included $80 billion in mandatory spending for the IRS, distributed over roughly a decade. Republicans could incorporate a comparable provision on border security and immigration spending this cycle.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Changes to other mandatory spending programs like Medicaid and SNAP are also allowed under reconciliation, Goldwein notes. That means that Republicans could pass provisions like more work requirements for SNAP or changes to Medicaid’s matching rates for different services.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Which policies might not survive reconciliation</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The policies that are less likely to advance through reconciliation are ones that are viewed as primarily accomplishing other policy ends, even if they also have an effect on the budget. These constraints will probably curtail the immigration and energy policies that Republicans are able to incorporate.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2021, for example, Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough determined that <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/09/19/1038776731/in-a-blow-to-democrats-senate-official-blocks-immigration-reform-in-budget-bill">Democrats could not include a path to citizenship for DACA recipients</a> — undocumented immigrants who came to the US as children — in a $3.5 trillion version of the Build Back Better bill. Democrats had argued that such efforts would have a significant budgetary impact and allow more immigrants to access social programs, but MacDonough ruled that these effects would be secondary to the main purpose of the law, which was to provide DACA recipients a way to achieve legal status.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the new Congress, other proposals to alter immigration policy — like past Republican bills <a href="https://apnews.com/article/congress-immigration-house-republicans-border-security-0e19f7f27ef15c6edd73532c3813656a">to make seeking asylum harder</a> — similarly wouldn’t be possible via reconciliation, says Heidi Altman, the director of federal advocacy at the National Immigration Law Center. Attempts to change eligibility for work visas or the number of visas available would also likely face uncertainty, experts told Vox.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Things that are changing funding for immigration, no problem,” Goldwein said. “Where it gets tricky is when they&#8217;re making regulatory changes that have budgetary effects.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On the energy front, the same logic holds, with regulatory changes more likely to be struck from the bill by the parliamentarian. Republicans have expressed an interest in considering permitting reform — which could expedite approvals for energy and infrastructure projects — as part of reconciliation, though it’s not clear that would gain <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/republicans-cooking-up-2025-permitting-plan-if-lame-duck-push-fails/">the parliamentarian’s approval</a>. Rolling back vehicle emissions standards that were set during the Biden administration is also likely to be a contentious inclusion.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Congress typically listens to the parliamentarian&nbsp;</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Because the Senate largely determines its own rules and norms, lawmakers have the ability to disregard the parliamentarian’s ruling, or to even fire an official they disagree with. It’s not common to do so, however.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Experts note that ignoring the parliamentarian would be a <a href="https://www.governing.com/context/the-history-of-congressional-parliamentarians-and-why-they-matter">rare and significant break from tradition</a>, and one that the Senate isn’t likely to entertain.<strong> </strong>In a <a href="https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/thune-tells-gop-not-to-overrule-parliamentarian/">Monday interview with Punchbowl News,</a> Thune said that overruling the parliamentarian would be “akin to killing the filibuster.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“We can’t go there,” he told Punchbowl reporter Andrew Desiderio. “People need to understand that.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The same would be true if lawmakers fired the parliamentarian, which last occurred in 2001 under Republican Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As things stand, it’s more likely that Republicans will be forced to strip provisions that don’t comply with reconciliation rules, focusing any package heavily on tax cuts, repealing tax credits, and boosting spending for immigration programs — but potentially angering Trump in the process.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I think the core of it is going to be probably a multi-year, but not permanent, extension of large parts of the [2017 tax cuts] … with some funding for border and some funding for defense, and maybe a couple of additional tax cuts, like no taxes on tips,” Goldwein said.</p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[House Republicans’ speaker drama, briefly explained]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/393091/house-republican-speaker-drama-mike-johnson" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=393091</id>
			<updated>2025-01-07T17:34:55-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-01-03T15:20:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[House Republicans — after some initial drama — successfully reelected Rep. Mike Johnson as speaker on Friday. Johnson’s victory in the first round of voting came as something of a surprise, after three Republicans initially voted against him, depriving him of the 218-person majority he needed to win the speakership. After conferring with Johnson, however, [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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											<![CDATA[

						
<figure>

<img alt="A middle-aged white man with glasses and graying hair, pictured with mouth parted." data-caption="House Speaker Mike Johnson gives remarks at the Capitol on December 19, 2024.﻿ | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/01/gettyimages-2190746514.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	House Speaker Mike Johnson gives remarks at the Capitol on December 19, 2024.﻿ | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/392278/government-shutdown-fight-spending-bill-trump-musk-house-republicans">House Republicans</a> — after some initial drama — successfully reelected Rep. Mike Johnson as speaker on Friday.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Johnson’s victory in the first round of voting came as something of a surprise, after three Republicans initially voted against him, depriving him of the 218-person majority he needed to win the speakership. After conferring with Johnson, however, Reps. Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Keith Self of Texas flipped their votes in favor of his candidacy, and Johnson secured the job. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Every Democrat — 215 total — voted for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), while the lone Republican holdout, Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, voted for Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN).</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The tight vote and its last-minute resolution are both indicative of the challenges that House Republicans will continue to face this term given their narrow majority, and their hard-right flank’s penchant for casting disruptive votes. Johnson’s difficulties were initially reminiscent of the House GOP’s struggles in 2023, when <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2023/1/7/23543163/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-of-the-house-vote-elected">it took 15 rounds of voting</a> for former GOP Speaker Kevin McCarthy to be elected after ultra-conservative Republicans rebelled.</p>
<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="Opening Day of 119th Congress - House of Representatives" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NRvAY2eWTEs?rel=0" allowfullscreen allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div>
<p class="has-text-align-none">At stake in the speakers’ race was Republicans’ ability to get pretty much anything done in the near term. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/house-speaker-vote-2025-ee2e6762">The House isn’t able to function without a speaker,</a> which meant that key tasks, like certifying the presidential election on January 6, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/house-speaker-vote-2025-ee2e6762">were at risk of being delayed</a>. The narrow and short-lived Republican revolt also sent a pointed message <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/12/27/24012615/house-republicans-humiliating-year-speaker-mccarthy">about the enduring divides within the party</a> and how they could <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/392278/government-shutdown-fight-spending-bill-trump-musk-house-republicans">pose a real obstacle</a> when it comes to the GOP’s attempts to pass actual policies in the coming year.&nbsp;</p>

<iframe frameborder="0" height="200" src="https://playlist.megaphone.fm/?e=VMP3352746955" width="100%"></iframe>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The House needs a speaker to function</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Any speaker chaos would have impeded the basic functions of the House.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/house-speaker-vote-2025-ee2e6762">As laid out by a 1789 law,</a> a speaker is required for everything from swearing in members to organizing committees to passing new legislation. The speaker election — which takes place via a public roll call vote — ultimately needed to happen prior to any other congressional business.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The January 2023 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/04/us/politics/house-speaker-representatives.html">fight over McCarthy’s election</a> offered a preview of the potential consequences: As the voting process stretched to multiple days, members grew concerned about their inability to provide constituent services and to receive classified briefings, since they hadn’t technically been sworn in yet.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Unlike in 2023, however, there were considerations beyond the day-to-day work of Congress this term. The speaker role likely needed to be filled for the House to certify the presidential election results on Monday, and a failure to do so could have delayed the certification of Trump’s victory. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/02/politics/johnson-speakership-election-trump-certification/index.html">As CNN reported</a> Thursday, Johnson’s allies cited this concern as a reason for his detractors to stand down.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If the House failed to elect a speaker by January 6, lawmakers could have tried to push the certification date to later in the month or tested other unprecedented alternatives, like electing a temporary speaker, to clear this procedural hurdle. It’s not certain, however, that the House parliamentarian, a nonpartisan official who advises Congress on interpreting the rules, would have gone along with such workarounds, according to George Washington University professor Sarah Binder, an expert on congressional rules.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Binder notes that there are ways the House could have utilized a temporary speaker to conduct urgent business but that the parliamentarian might have advised against doing so. If they did, lawmakers would likely have abided by this judgment since the parliamentarian’s decisions have typically held significant weight. (The parliamentarian’s advice isn’t binding, and <a href="https://www.governing.com/context/the-history-of-congressional-parliamentarians-and-why-they-matter">lawmakers have ignored it in the past</a>, but these instances have been rare.)</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Friday’s chaos was a preview of Republican divides — and the fights to come</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The early rumblings of GOP dissent on Friday signaled just how deep Republican divides go, and how chaotic efforts to advance their policies are poised to be.<strong> </strong>It shows, too, the power of the party’s right flank, <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/10/25/23931518/house-speaker-race-mike-johnson-winners-losers-analysis-takeaways">which twice held the speaker’s contest hostage</a> in 2023 in order to make demands about coveted positions on committees and the power to depose House leadership.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“It’s a reflection of the underlying disagreements and factionalism within the House Republican Conference,” Binder told Vox. “Whether we date them to Donald Trump, whether we date it to MAGA, whether we date it to the Tea Party [movement in 2009] or beyond … [or] activist conservatives versus the establishment, the Republican Party has long been wrought by this central faction.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">McCarthy’s contentious election — and governance — last term provided a vivid preview of these fault lines. In January 2023, it took multiple rounds of voting across four days — resolving early in the morning on January 7 — before McCarthy was elected speaker, thanks to conservative opposition to his leadership. To win the speaker’s gavel, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2023/1/7/23543163/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-of-the-house-vote-elected">McCarthy eventually offered significant concessions</a> to far-right members, including seats on the Rules Committee and the ability for any Republican member to unilaterally force a vote on the removal of the speaker.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Conservatives eventually succeeded in toppling McCarthy from the speakership in October 2023, igniting another round of fighting over the position. It then took more than three weeks for Republicans to fill the position again, with multiple nominations and multiple floor votes prior to Johnson’s elevation.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">McCarthy’s decision to work with Democrats to pass a short-term funding measure precipitated his ouster, and on multiple occasions since then, Johnson has also had to rely on Democratic votes to keep the government open and to pass major foreign aid packages because his own conference was simply too fractured to agree on them.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">These splits, coupled with narrow margins in the House — which will get even narrower soon, as two Republican House members join the Trump administration — are set to be tested again and again in 2025. The speaker’s race was Republicans’ first hurdle, but any GOP efforts to pursue ambitious immigration and tax bills during Trump’s administration, or even to keep the government open, could prove fraught.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“The stakes are higher for them [now],” Binder says, “because they&#8217;ve got Trump in the White House, and they have a policy agenda.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong><em>Update, January 3, 2:30 pm ET:</em></strong> This story was originally published on January 2 and has been updated with the results from the House speaker vote</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[TikTok is headed for a ban — but can Trump still save it?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/392893/trump-tiktok-ban-supreme-court" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=392893</id>
			<updated>2025-01-01T12:31:49-05:00</updated>
			<published>2024-12-30T17:25:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[With the TikTok ban poised to go into effect in January, President-elect Donald Trump once again waded into the debate over the app’s future this past weekend.&#160; Trump, who has sounded a much more favorable note on TikTok in the last year, is now calling for the Supreme Court to delay the implementation of a [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="Donald Trump’s account on TikTok displayed on a phone screen are seen in this illustration photo taken in Poland on December 26, 2024. | Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/12/gettyimages-2190842640.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Donald Trump’s account on TikTok displayed on a phone screen are seen in this illustration photo taken in Poland on December 26, 2024. | Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/389996/tiktok-ban-trump-election-court-lawsuit">With the TikTok ban poised to go into effect in January,</a> President-elect Donald Trump once again waded into the debate over the app’s future this past weekend.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/389996/tiktok-ban-trump-election-court-lawsuit">Trump</a>, who has sounded <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/us/politics/trump-tik-tok-ban.html">a much more favorable note on TikTok in the last year</a>, is now calling for the Supreme Court to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-supreme-court-trump-b96013a8447e9bdb5508ebe436aadf9a">delay the implementation of a potential ban</a>, which is set to take effect on January 19. In April 2024, <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/24094839/tiktok-ban-bill-congress-pass-biden">Congress passed</a> a law banning “foreign adversary controlled applications” from platforms like the Apple and Google app stores, which would effectively force TikTok’s parent company ByteDance to either sell the app or see it barred in the United States.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The law received extensive bipartisan support amid national security concerns about surveillance and meddling by the Chinese government, but has been challenged on First Amendment grounds. Prior to Trump’s weekend request, the Supreme Court had <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/391668/supreme-court-tiktok-garland-china">already agreed to hear a case about the ban</a> on an expedited schedule and will weigh oral arguments on January 10.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Now, Trump is urging a pause on the policy so he can have time to find a “<a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24-656/336151/20241227163400981_2024-12-27%20-%20TikTok%20v.%20Garland%20-%20Amicus%20Brief%20of%20President%20Donald%20J.%20Trump.pdf">negotiated resolution</a>.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump’s recent statement is the latest indication that he’s interested in protecting the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/us/politics/trump-tik-tok-ban.html">app, despite previously backing a ban himself</a>. That change of heart could be due to a slew of factors, including that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-seeks-court-young-male-voters-new-tiktok-gambit-2024-06-05/">TikTok offered him a way to reach young male voters</a> during the election — something he has suggested <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kctbR9z5NoY">when asked about the ban</a> — and that one of his biggest donors, Jeff Yass, <a href="https://www.vox.com/technology/389996/tiktok-ban-trump-election-court-lawsuit">is a major investor in the app’s parent company</a>. Regardless of the rationale, he’s now signaled multiple times that he intends to advocate for the app’s survival.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I have a little bit of a warm spot in my heart. I&#8217;ll be honest,” <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/12/16/trump-tiktok-ban-2025/77025686007/">he said in mid-December.</a>&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If the Supreme Court upholds the law, there are multiple ways Trump could try to save the app, former Justice Department attorney Alan Rozenshtein told Vox. He notes that the way the policy is written gives the president significant discretion in how it’s interpreted, meaning Trump could direct his attorney general not to enforce the law or even say that ByteDance has divested of the app when it hasn’t.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Vox sat down with Rozenshtein, who is also a University of Minnesota law professor specializing in national security and tech, to walk through these potential scenarios and how likely each of them is. Broadly, Rozenshtein notes, the president-elect has wide-ranging authority he could use to protect TikTok in some form.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Li Zhou</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Can the Supreme Court actually pause or delay the law?&nbsp;</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Alan Rozenshtein</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Yes, because the Supreme Court can do anything, but they shouldn&#8217;t based on existing law.</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Li Zhou</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Can you elaborate on that?&nbsp;</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Alan Rozenshtein</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In order to pause the law, to keep it from coming into force, the general standard is that the person seeking the pause has to show a reasonable likelihood of success on the merits. So it&#8217;s not enough just to say, “Hey, this law is coming into effect, please pause it so I can challenge it.” It&#8217;s, “I&#8217;m probably going to win anyway. So please pause it while I convince you that, in fact, I will win.”</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Li Zhou</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump&#8217;s argument is not necessarily that he&#8217;d win when it comes to repealing the law. It&#8217;s just that he wants time to try to navigate the situation and figure out a different resolution.</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Alan Rozenshtein</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Yeah, it’s just not how it works.&nbsp;</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Li Zhou</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If the Supreme Court decides to overturn the law or pause it — can we expect it to do so prior to the January 19 deadline?&nbsp;</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Alan Rozenshtein</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What the Supreme Court could do, and I suspect it will do, and that&#8217;s why they timed it this way, is they will do oral argument, they will go back, they will vote. I suspect there will be at least five, if not more, votes to uphold the law. The Supreme Court will announce that immediately, or the next day or two weeks later. And then they will say an opinion is forthcoming.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">We will know the answer very quickly. We won’t know the reason for some time.&nbsp;</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Li Zhou</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Will users still be able to access the app if a ban goes into effect on January 19?&nbsp;</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Alan Rozenshtein</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The law prohibits the app stores from distributing the app, but it does not require the app stores to go into your phone and delete the app. So if you have the app, you have the app.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The bigger issue is actually around the cloud service provider Oracle. So TikTok runs on Oracle servers in the United States, like when you go to TikTok.com, right? Like the actual machine you&#8217;re accessing is owned and operated by Oracle. And so, on January 20, presumably Oracle shuts those computers off because it has to.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What happens then? Presumably, TikTok, if it thinks it&#8217;s about to go dark, will have a contingency plan in place to shift its services from US cloud service providers to global cloud service providers … so there&#8217;s all these technical questions.</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Li Zhou</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The other issue is that if there are no updates to TikTok over time, it eventually becomes unusable and obsolete, right?&nbsp;</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Alan Rozenshtein</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That&#8217;s the theory.</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Li Zhou</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If the Supreme Court decides to uphold the law, what are the ways you see Trump being able to step in and save the app?&nbsp;</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Alan Rozenshtein</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So number one, he can get Congress to repeal the law. That would obviously be the cleanest and most effective thing he could do, but I doubt that he&#8217;ll be able to do it. The law was passed with broad bipartisan consensus. It would require Congress to reverse a vote they had taken not even a year ago, and I just don&#8217;t think he has the votes. I don&#8217;t think he really wants to spend his political capital on this in his first 100 days. He&#8217;s already gonna have trouble getting anything done.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The second thing he could do is he could direct his attorney general not to enforce the law. The law works by penalizing the app stores and cloud service providers who work with TikTok up to $5,000 per user, and he could just direct [prospective] Attorney General Pam Bondi to not enforce the law. That sort of thing is his constitutional prerogative. But the problem there is that the law would still be in effect, and these companies will still be violating it. So if you&#8217;re a general counsel of Apple, and you say, “Hey, I read on Truth Social that Trump is not going to enforce the law,” I&#8217;d say definitely don&#8217;t bank on that for obvious reasons.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The third thing he could do is declare that the law no longer applies. And the way he could do that is through the provision of the law that defines what a qualified divestiture is.&nbsp;<em>[Editor’s note: <a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/can-trump-save-tiktok">As one part of the law reads,</a>&nbsp;<strong>“</strong>The term ‘qualified divestiture’ means a divestiture or similar transaction that—(A) the President determines, through an interagency process, would result in the relevant foreign adversary controlled application no longer being controlled by a foreign adversary.”]</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If you focus on those first few words [of the statute], “the President determines,” that raises some possibilities in terms of how you read the statute.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">[One way] to read it is to say that the statute gives a lot of discretion to the president to determine what counts as a “qualified divestiture.” On that view, the president could — especially if ByteDance shifts the papers around, moves some assets from Company A to Company B, basically gives Trump enough legal cover — to declare, “Well, I no longer think that ByteDance owns TikTok.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Now, whether or not that&#8217;s actually true is a separate question, but it might be difficult to challenge a determination that Trump makes under this provision, even if it&#8217;s not actually based on reality. That&#8217;s the thing you can do most easily that would be the most effective.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The fourth thing is he could try to facilitate a sale. Now, the problem has never been on the demand side. It&#8217;s not that there aren&#8217;t American buyers who wouldn&#8217;t happily buy TikTok. It’s on the supply side. [The question is]: will the Chinese government permit ByteDance to sell TikTok with or without the algorithm? So I think it would really be Trump as a diplomat going and trying to strike a deal with [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping. The thing is, I don&#8217;t know if Trump can do it. I don&#8217;t know if he wants to do it.</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Li Zhou</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For option three that you laid out, I&#8217;m curious: If there was a challenge to Trump making a claim that divestiture has happened but it hasn&#8217;t really happened, what would that look like? Where would it come from, and what would the grounds be?</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Alan Rozenshtein</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So the challenge would say: The statute gives the president some role in determining the divestiture, but it doesn&#8217;t allow the president to lie.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Now, the harder part is bringing the case itself. So there&#8217;s a principle in American law called standing, which is that if you want to sue in federal court, at least, you have to be the right kind of person to sue based on the thing you are alleging. So in particular, you have to be concretely and individually injured by something.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Well, who can be injured, right? So it&#8217;s not gonna be just a random person. It&#8217;s not Congress. There are two categories I could think of. One is competitors of TikTok, so Mark Zuckerberg could sue, saying, “I own Instagram Reels.” And competitors are allowed to sue when they think the government is illegally benefiting a competitor of theirs, but that would require Zuckerberg to go and sue Donald Trump, and everything we know about Silicon Valley&#8217;s current posture is that they don&#8217;t want to piss off the president.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The other people that could sue are the affected parties themselves. So Apple and Oracle could sue, not to challenge the divestiture determination, but to clarify, to seek what&#8217;s called a declaratory judgment, to clarify the legal obligations. But that still would involve them suing and making it possible that Trump would lose, and that might annoy Trump. So there&#8217;s a small universe of people that could sue, and they have other reasons to not necessarily want to sue.</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Li Zhou</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Theoretically, if one of the parties you mentioned does decide to move forward with a lawsuit, how likely do you see that being a successful case that upholds the law?</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Alan Rozenshtein</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I think a lot depends on if it&#8217;s obvious that Trump just announced a divestiture where nothing had happened. I think the courts would probably strike that down. If ByteDance does some things that plausibly make the case that something like a divestiture has occurred on the margins, I could imagine courts deferring to the president saying, “Look, you know, this question of whether or not TikTok is controlled by a Chinese company is very fact-specific. It implicates national security and foreign policy determinations. Congress gave the president a role, and the president is exercising that role. We&#8217;re not going to second-guess that.”</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none">Li Zhou</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What do you see as the most likely scenario from here on out?</p>

<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Alan Rozenshtein</h4>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I think the Supreme Court will uphold the law. And then I think through some combination of a sale of something, maybe without the algorithm, plus Trump declaring some stuff, probably there will be something like TikTok that continues [in the US], but exactly in what shape is very unclear.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Ellen Ioanes</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The Matt Gaetz ethics report, explained]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/congress/392622/matt-gaetz-ethics-report-congress-fbi-doj" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=392622</id>
			<updated>2024-12-23T17:14:21-05:00</updated>
			<published>2024-12-23T17:20:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Congress" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Explainers" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[After much back-and-forth, the House Ethics Committee released a bombshell report about alleged sexual misconduct by former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), stating that he broke multiple state laws and that he’s previously paid a minor for sex. Gaetz has categorically denied the allegations and on Monday filed a lawsuit aimed at preventing the report’s release.&#160; [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Matt Gaetz speaking into a microphone enthusiastically and gesturing" data-caption="Rep. Matt Gaetz speaks during the Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/12/gettyimages-2184367498.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Rep. Matt Gaetz speaks during the Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">After much back-and-forth, <a href="https://ethics.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Committee-Report.pdf">the House Ethics Committee released a bombshell report</a> about alleged sexual misconduct by former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), stating that he broke multiple state laws and that he’s previously paid a minor for sex. Gaetz has categorically denied the allegations and <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5053397-gaetz-ethics-committee-lawsuit/">on Monday filed a lawsuit</a> aimed at preventing the report’s release.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The review, which is the culmination of a years-long investigation, contains multiple allegations of wrongdoing, including that Gaetz spent tens of thousands paying women, and in at least one instance a 17-year-old, for sex or drugs, and that he’s used illicit drugs like ecstasy and cocaine. Although the Ethics Committee concluded that Gaetz had not violated federal sex trafficking statutes, it found that the lawmaker had broken other state laws.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“The Committee concluded there was substantial evidence that Representative Gaetz violated House Rules, state and federal laws, and other standards of conduct prohibiting prostitution, statutory rape, illicit drug use, acceptance of impermissible gifts, the provision of special favors and privileges, and obstruction of Congress,” the report reads.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There was some question about whether the report would be released, and substantial portions of it leaked before it was formally published. The Ethics Committee, a bipartisan panel that investigates wrongdoing by lawmakers, initially deadlocked when it came to releasing their results in the wake of Gaetz’s resignation from Congress. It’s uncommon for the panel to share its findings after a member is no longer in Congress, though it’s not unheard of.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Gaetz abruptly resigned following his nomination to be President-elect Donald Trump’s attorney general. After he withdrew from consideration for attorney general when it became clear that he wouldn’t get sufficient Senate support, the Ethics panel ultimately voted to publicize the report.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The report contains detailed documentation of the allegations it levies against Gaetz and is the product of contacting more than two dozen witnesses and reviewing 14,000 documents. Whether the report will lead to additional legal consequences or political ramifications for the bombastic former member of Congress is still an open question, however. Here’s what you need to know about the report, and what may come next for Gaetz.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>What does the report say?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The report centers on allegations of Gaetz paying women, and one teenage girl, for sex, his use of illegal drugs, and his acceptance of improper gifts.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>“</strong><a href="https://ethics.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Committee-Report.pdf"><strong>Commercial sex</strong></a><strong>”: </strong>The report alleges that Gaetz paid women for sex on numerous occasions between 2017 and 2020, and paid a 17-year-old girl for sex in 2017.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the course of its investigation, which included multiple interviews with women who said they had sexual encounters with Gaetz, the Ethics Committee’s report said there were at least 20 instances when he paid women for sexual activity or drugs. They found such payments were made on platforms including PayPal, Venmo, and CashApp, as well as via check and cash. When given an opportunity to explain the payments he made, Gaetz did not provide any information to the committee. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Gaetz allegedly met many of these women via his friend <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/01/politics/joel-greenberg-sentencing/index.html">Joel Greenberg, a former Seminole County tax attorney</a> who’s now serving 11 years in prison for multiple crimes, including underage sex trafficking and wire fraud. Greenberg connected with the women via a website called SeekingArrangement.com that aims to link older affluent men and younger women. Broadly, the report says there was evidence that women expected payment for their interactions with Gaetz and Greenberg, with the report citing explicit examples including one when a woman noted: “I usually do $400 per meet.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">One of the people who Gaetz allegedly had a sexual encounter with was 17 years old at the time of their meet-up in July 2017, the report notes. He allegedly had sex with her at a party that month; she did not disclose that she was under 18 nor did he ask her age. The committee concluded that he was not aware that that person was a minor, though the report also notes that “ignorance” of a minor’s age doesn’t shield an offending adult from being charged with statutory rape under Florida law. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Gaetz has repeatedly denied that he paid women for sex and denied that he had sex with a minor. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“In my single days, I often sent funds to women I dated &#8211; even some I never dated but who asked,” <a href="https://x.com/mattgaetz/status/1869406920768917618">Gaetz previously wrote on X</a>. “I dated several of these women for years. I NEVER had sexual contact with someone under 18.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The panel determined that Gaetz’s actions were a violation of Florida state laws addressing commercial sex and statutory rape. It also did not find that Gaetz had violated federal sex trafficking laws, claiming that he did transport women across state lines for commercial sex, but that there was no evidence those individuals were under 18 or that they had been “induced by force, fraud, or coercion.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Illegal drug use: </strong>Two women that the committee spoke with also testified to seeing Gaetz repeatedly engage in illegal drug use including that of ecstasy and cocaine, while additional evidence points to his regular use of cannabis. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Gaetz has denied allegations of unlawful drug use.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The committee found that these actions were a violation of Florida state laws, which bar the use of all three drugs for recreational purposes. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Excessive gifts: </strong>The panel alleges that Gaetz also accepted gifts in excess of the $250 limit that Congress members are supposed to adhere to (but that lawmakers, in practice, aren’t always held to). This specifically included a trip to the Bahamas in 2018, during which Gaetz allegedly accepted a flight on a private plane as well as lodgings.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Gaetz has denied these allegations, but failed to provide the committee with evidence that he paid for these services himself.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The committee determined that his acceptance of these gifts was an ethical violation of the House Gift Rule. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Obstruction of Congress: </strong>Gaetz did not voluntarily participate in an interview with the committee and also did not respond to a subpoena he faced for testimony. He provided some documents in response to the panel’s requests, but little relevant information, according to the report.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Gaetz has repeatedly cited the lack of charges levied against him by the DOJ inquiry and argued that the Congressional investigation was targeted.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The committee, however, stated that Gaetz was required by federal law to cooperate with a congressional investigation regardless of what the DOJ decided to do with its investigation, or how he may have felt about the House inquiry. Failing to answer the committee’s questions and being unresponsive to its subpoena constitutes “obstruction of Congress,” according to the report.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Why is the Ethics Committee report coming out now?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Ethics Committee first began its investigation into Gaetz in 2021, but put it on pause once the Justice Department started its own investigation later that year. It took up its review once more after the DOJ inquiry ended in 2023. The department did <a href="https://www.vox.com/donald-trump/384967/matt-gaetz-donald-trump-attorney-general">not release any details about its findings</a> or why it declined to continue its probe, though the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/23/us/politics/matt-gaetz-ethics-report-takeaways.html?unlocked_article_code=1.jk4.72rc.WMi6UtvZcxEz&amp;smid=url-share">New York Times reported that</a> federal prosecutors were uncertain about their ability to make the case that Gaetz had broken federal law.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The panel was scheduled to release its findings in mid-November, right around when Trump announced Gaetz as his AG pick. Gaetz stepped down from Congress swiftly following that announcement, a surprising move as Congress members who are nominated typically haven’t given up their jobs before getting confirmed.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Gaetz’s departure raised questions about whether the committee would still publish the report, with some Republicans arguing that it was no longer in its “jurisdiction” since the conservative was no longer a lawmaker. While Gaetz was still under consideration for AG, the committee deadlocked about releasing the report. After he withdrew from the role, the majority — including at least one Republican member — voted on December 10 to release the report. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“The Committee has typically not released its findings after losing jurisdiction in a matter,” the report reads. “However, there are a few prior instances where the Committee has determined that it was in the public interest to release its findings even after a Member’s resignation from Congress.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Is the Ethics Committee investigation connected to the DOJ’s investigation?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The two investigations aren’t connected in any legal way, though the Ethics Committee noted in its report that it tried to use some of the DOJ’s work in its investigation. DOJ pushed back on that effort and according to the committee, the DOJ failed to comply with a subpoena and FOIA request for information.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“The Committee hopes to continue to engage with DOJ on the broader issues raised by its failure to recognize the Committee’s unique mandate,” the report states.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The committee hoped to work with the DOJ in part because the two investigations covered many of the same allegations, primarily that Gaetz regularly paid women for sex, had sex with a minor, and transported women across state lines for the purpose of engaging in commercial sex.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The DOJ investigation, which started in 2020 during Trump’s previous term, had a more limited scope than the ethics investigation. That’s because the DOJ looks for proof that a federal crime was committed, while the ethics panel is concerned with — as the report put it — “upholding the integrity of our government institutions.” That is, an act can be deemed unethical without being a federal crime.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Again, the DOJ’s investigation did not result in any federal charges against Gaetz and is no longer open. </p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Will the ethics report have any legal repercussions?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Although the federal government is no longer investigating Gaetz, the ethics report highlights several acts allegedly taken by Gaetz that lawmakers claim are state crimes. And that could lead to further legal entanglements for Gaetz, Donald Sherman, executive director and chief counsel for legal advocacy group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, told Vox. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Of course, the committee no longer has jurisdiction over Mr. Gaetz, but … I would venture to guess that there is some conduct that he engaged in that can and should be investigated by local law enforcement,” dependent on state laws, statutes of limitations, and local willingness to launch an investigation, Sherman said.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The ethics report finds that Gaetz violated Florida state law by having sex with the 17-year-old, paying for sex, and using illicit drugs. Florida law enforcement officials have yet to announce any investigations into Gaetz related to either allegation. The DOJ has also made no <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/23/us/politics/matt-gaetz-ethics-report-takeaways.html?unlocked_article_code=1.jk4.72rc.WMi6UtvZcxEz&amp;smid=url-share">indication it intends to revisit the matter</a>, and given Gaetz is a Trump ally who was once in line to lead that department, it seems unlikely that Trump’s DOJ would reopen the case into Gaetz.</p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Trump, the government funding chaos agent, is back]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/392197/trump-government-shutdown-musk" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=392197</id>
			<updated>2024-12-21T10:46:41-05:00</updated>
			<published>2024-12-20T13:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Editor’s note, December 21 10:20 am ET: Shortly after midnight on Saturday, the Senate passed legislation that would fund the government and avert a shutdown. The bill did not include the suspension or elimination of the debt ceiling that Donald Trump had demanded. This week, we’re getting a potent reminder of what legislating looked like [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="President-elect Donald Trump gives remarks in Florida." data-caption="President-elect Donald Trump speaks at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort on December 16, 2024, in Palm Beach, Florida. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Harnik/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/12/gettyimages-2189744596.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	President-elect Donald Trump speaks at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort on December 16, 2024, in Palm Beach, Florida. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em><strong>Editor’s note, December 21 10:20 am ET</strong></em>: <em>Shortly after midnight on Saturday, the Senate passed legislation that would fund the government and avert a shutdown. The bill did not include the suspension or elimination of the debt ceiling that Donald Trump had demanded.  </em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This week, we’re getting a potent reminder of what legislating looked like under President Donald Trump — and the turmoil we can soon expect in his new term.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump, along with his ally, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/congress-budget-trump-musk-johnson-5dc9fd8672f9807189032811d4ab0528">upended a bipartisan spending deal</a> on Wednesday, just days before government funding is set to expire. That agreement would have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/18/us/politics/spending-bill-explainer.html">kept the government open until March 14</a>, bundling $100 billion in disaster aid with $10 billion to assist farmers, and a slew of other measures. Following <a href="https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/musk-demands-republicans-sink-spending-bill/">grumbling from Musk about the size of the legislation</a>, Trump called for Republicans to <a href="https://x.com/JDVance/status/1869495076604227726">negotiate a new agreement</a> that both addresses <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy/2023/5/6/23707949/debt-ceiling-crisis-budget-deal-questions">the debt ceiling</a> and strips the deal of so-called “Democrat giveaways.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">House GOP leaders tried to do so, presenting a new bill Thursday. Unsurprisingly, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz6l9e3jq7xo">that version of the bill hasn’t been able to garner the votes</a> that it needs to pass — leaving lawmakers once again scrambling with a shutdown deadline looming Friday night.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump’s 11th-hour decision to get involved in negotiations, weighing in via social media (and seemingly without coordinating with congressional allies), is reminiscent of his first-term approach to Capitol Hill, when he regularly blew up funding talks and directly caused the <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/12/18179711/longest-government-shutdown-us-history">longest government shutdown in US history</a>. As such, this week’s chaos is both a callback and preview of the tumult that’s yet to come.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trump’s history of blowing up deals, briefly explained&nbsp;</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">During Trump’s first term, he <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f6a51fec-2f44-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a">repeatedly called for Republicans to shut the government down</a> in order to put pressure on Democrats to back his priorities, and also proved to be a mercurial negotiator.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In his first year as president, Trump <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/23/us/politics/trump-wall-flake.html">began urging a shutdown as early as August,</a> attacking members of his own party and emphasizing his willingness to endure a stoppage if it meant securing funding for a border wall. He went out of his way, too, to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/28/us/politics/trump-democrats-government-shutdown-pelosi.html">needle Democrats on Twitter</a> ahead of a funding negotiation meeting <a href="https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/935513049729028096">that November</a>, prompting Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to not attend.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And as a shutdown loomed <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/politics/trump-government-shutdown.html">in January 2018,</a> Trump further helped to scuttle a potential spending deal by throwing in extraneous border security demands. That month, Trump and Schumer famously met for cheeseburgers and appeared to reach an agreement, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/did-two-white-house-advisers-help-push-trump-toward-a-shutdown">according to the Democratic lawmaker</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That agreement would have included Democratic backing for increased military spending and potential funding for a wall, in exchange for legislation that created a path to legal status for DACA recipients (a category of undocumented immigrants who came to the US as children). After the meeting, however, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/politics/trump-government-shutdown.html">Trump reportedly pushed</a> for more hardline immigration measures — including policies to enforce illegal immigration across the country — ultimately <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/did-two-white-house-advisers-help-push-trump-toward-a-shutdown">killing the deal</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the week that followed, Democrats withheld their votes on a funding bill in an attempt to force the inclusion of DACA protections, leading to a brief shutdown. That didn’t wind up working, however. The shutdown ended when Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promised Democrats a vote on an immigration bill, which later <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/15/17017682/senate-immigration-daca-bill-vote-failed">failed to pass</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Perhaps most notably, Trump went on to cause a 35-day government shutdown from December 2018 to January 2019, after he panned a bipartisan funding deal that lawmakers had already agreed to. His statements prompted House Republicans to pass a different version of the spending bill that included <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/12/22/18141081/government-partial-shutdown-trump-house-senate">more than $5 billion in funding for construction of a border wall</a>, which Democrats balked at supporting. Because the House and Senate couldn’t find a version of the bill they could both pass, the funding deadline came and went, and the government entered a shutdown.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After more than a month, Trump caved on his demands when it was apparent that he and his Republicans allies didn’t have the votes for the border wall funding and the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/25/18197354/government-shutdown-tipping-point">effects of the shutdown on government services</a> were becoming untenable (his approval rating also suffered noticeably as the shutdown wore on). He ended up signing a short-term funding bill that reopened the government but did not include his requested border wall funds, though he later <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/2/14/18222167/trump-border-security-deal">declared a national emergency</a> in a second, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/1/14/21065352/trump-diverting-military-funds-border-wall-construction">more successful</a>, attempt to secure wall funding.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Even after leaving the White House in January 2021, Trump has continued to meddle with funding bills. Just this past fall, he again <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/non-citizen-voting-not-real-issue-trump-gop-1235101728/">called for Republicans to reject funding legislation</a> and shut down the government if Congress didn’t pass a bill to curb noncitizen voting, which is already illegal.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>A return to the chaos of Trump’s first term</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This week’s developments are yet another indication that Trump’s disruptive style hasn’t changed — particularly with the vocal backing of new allies like Musk.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump and Musk’s shared approach to governance by tweet (or Truth Social post) could well amp up the chaos and pressure that Republicans lawmakers will face in the president-elect’s second term.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Neither has been shy about making threats in order to bully people into acquiescing. Musk, for example, has said he’ll <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/latest/trump-elon-musk-primary-republican-ethics-rcna184139">financially back primary challengers</a> against senators who don’t support Trump’s Cabinet picks. And Trump has his own history of <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5049317-donald-trump-chip-roy-primary-challenge-shutdown-talks/">pushing for primaries</a> against lawmakers who don’t do his bidding, a tactic he reprised this week.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While Republicans will again control both chambers of Congress next year, as they did during the first two years of Trump’s first term, they will hold narrow majorities that pose their own challenges. House Speaker Mike Johnson will need to keep a fractious coalition fully unified — or rely on Democrats — to get anything done.&nbsp; Already this year, Johnson has had to rely on Democrats to help pass multiple funding bills, a dynamic that’s garnered ire from his right flank and could fuel challenges of his leadership in the new term.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Even after lawmakers resolve this funding fight, Johnson won’t have long to rest; the likely next deadline, in mid-March, will be an early test for the return of unified Republican governance. If this week is any measure, GOP leaders will have their work cut out for them — and it’s likely Trump and Musk will throw a few more grenades into the process along the way.</p>

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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The horrifying rape case roiling France, explained]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/370736/france-rape-case-gisele-dominique-pelicot-metoo" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=370736</id>
			<updated>2024-12-19T14:06:53-05:00</updated>
			<published>2024-12-19T12:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Editor’s note, December 19, 12 pm ET: Dominique Pelicot, the ex-husband of Gisèle Pelicot, has been found guilty of aggravated rape by a French judge. Dominique had previously confessed to drugging and raping his ex-wife and inviting strangers into their home to rape her. Fifty other men were also found guilty of related crimes. Read Vox’s [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Gisèle Pelicot wears sunglasses, a red top underneath a white button-down shirt, as she enters the courthouse" data-caption="Gisèle Pelicot re-enters the courthouse during the trial of her ex-husband. | Christophe Simon/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Christophe Simon/AFP via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/09/gettyimages-2169643940.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Gisèle Pelicot re-enters the courthouse during the trial of her ex-husband. | Christophe Simon/AFP via Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none"><em><strong>Editor’s note, December 19, 12 pm ET: </strong>Dominique Pelicot, the ex-husband of Gisèle Pelicot, has been found guilty of aggravated rape by a French judge. Dominique had previously confessed to drugging and raping his ex-wife and inviting strangers into their home to rape her. Fifty other men were also found guilty of related crimes.</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><em><a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/391923/gisele-pelicot-dominique-sentencing-rape-trial-verdict-france" data-type="link" data-id="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/391923/gisele-pelicot-dominique-sentencing-rape-trial-verdict-france">Read Vox’s Marin Cogan</a> for more on the verdict, and the implications it has for a reckoning over marital rape in France and the US.</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A horrifying sexual assault case playing out in France is adding to a larger French reckoning over abuse toward women.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The case centers on 71-year-old Dominique Pelicot, who is accused of drugging and raping his wife, Gisèle Pelicot, and inviting dozens of other men to sexually assault her while she was unconscious. Dominique Pelicot — who has <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/france-victim-testifies-in-gruesome-rape-trial/a-70158198">confessed to raping his wife repeatedly</a> over the course of a decade — is now on trial, along with 50 other defendants, who are also accused of sexual assault or attempted sexual assault. Some of these defendants have admitted guilt, while others have denied it.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">During his testimony, Dominique Pelicot said he and all the men involved are guilty. &nbsp;“I maintain that I am a rapist, like those in this room,” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/europe/france-rape-trial-dominique-pelicot.html">Dominique Pelicot said</a>. “They all knew her condition before they came; they knew everything. They cannot say otherwise.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Although she <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/03/europe/france-man-accused-strangers-rape-wife-intl-latam/index.html">had the option of a private trial</a>,<strong> </strong>Gisèle Pelicot decided to make the proceedings public in order to support and raise awareness for other victims of similar crimes. “I speak for all women who are drugged and don’t know about it, I do it on behalf of all women who will perhaps never know,” Gisèle Pelicot said of her case. In total, police have used roughly 20,000 images her husband took of the assaults to determine that 72 men had been involved in raping her from 2011 to 2020.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Pelicot case is roiling France and comes as the country continues to grapple with accountability regarding sexual misconduct toward women. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/03/movies/judith-godreche-metoo-abuse-france.html">As the New York Times reported</a> this spring, the Me Too movement had previously stalled in France’s film industry, and has found new momentum this year after prominent actor and director Judith Godrèche spoke out. French writers and actors have also previously noted that the country’s attitudes toward sexual freedom have distinguished it from the US in how condemning sexual misconduct is treated. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“French attitudes toward morality and sex have historically always been different to the US,” journalist Agnès Poirier <a href="https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20240522-cannes-film-festival-frances-divisive-reckoning-with-metoo">previously told the BBC</a>. “But it’s been brewing for years and it feels that 2024 is different.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>What the case is</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Dominique Pelicot’s assaults on his wife were first discovered by police in November 2020, after he was initially investigated for taking photos up women’s skirts at a supermarket in southeastern France, where the couple lived.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After he was caught taking the photos, police searched Pelicot’s computer and found a folder titled “Abuses” on a related USB drive. In it, they discovered thousands of photos and videos of Pelicot and other men raping his wife while she was unconscious. “My world fell apart,” Gisèle Pelicot said after police informed her of their discovery.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The officers’ findings followed years of Gisèle Pelicot experiencing memory lapses, hair loss, and weight loss, so much so she feared that she might be developing Alzheimer’s or another serious illness. During that time, her husband had been <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trial-rape-drug-france-husband-wife-5ad00446b8a76f0c8d14f349df9147e3">drugging her regularly</a> with a combination of medications, including the anti-anxiety drug Temesta, which can act like a sedative.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While Gisèle Pelicot was unconscious, Dominique Pelicot invited a number of men to their home so that they could rape her. Gisèle Pelicot has emphasized that she did not have any knowledge of these attacks, and did not feign unconsciousness as some of the defendants have suggested. Dominique Pelicot found the men via a messaging board called “Without their knowledge” on the now-shuttered website Coco, which was known for postings that involved illegal activities.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On the site, Dominique Pelicot solicited men to assault his wife, giving them specific instructions, including not wearing perfume or smoking, to avoid detection. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/europe/france-rape-trial-dominique-pelicot.html">According to Dominique Pelicot</a>, the men were active participants in the crime: “They came looking for me. I was asked, I said yes. They accepted, they came. I did not handcuff anybody to make them come to my place.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The identities of these defendants haven’t been revealed, though authorities note that they range from the ages of 26 to 74, that many have partners, and that they come from a wide spectrum of backgrounds, including firefighters, journalists, and soldiers.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In their search of his computer, police also found naked photos of Dominique and Gisèle Pelicot’s daughter, Caroline Darian; Dominique Pelicot <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/europe/france-rape-trial-dominique-pelicot.html">claimed during his testimony</a> that the photos weren’t his and that he believed they were of someone else.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>What’s happened so far</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Gisèle and Dominique Pelicot, as well as Darian, all took the stand in recent weeks, and offered harrowing testimony about the assaults. “Frankly, these are scenes of horror for me,” Gisèle Pelicot said of the videos and photos her husband took to document the rapes. “They treat me like a rag doll.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Prior to learning of the attacks, Gisèle Pelicot had said that she had believed that she and her husband of roughly 50 years had been a close couple. Dominique Pelicot has admitted the abuse and also told a psychologist that he did it because Gisèle Pelicot had rejected swinging, or sleeping with other people outside their marriage.&nbsp;He added during the trial that he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/europe/france-rape-trial-dominique-pelicot.html">believes a sexual assault</a> he says he experienced as a child also contributed to his “perversion.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Gisèle Pelicot says the decision to release her identity and to speak publicly about the case was intended to show that survivors shouldn’t be ashamed of the abuse they’ve suffered. Handling the case anonymously is “what her attackers would have wanted,” her lawyers said.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Darian also described the horror she felt upon learning what her father had done, calling him “the worst sexual predator of the last 20 years.” Both emphasized fears that they wouldn’t be able to regain any sense of stability or safety in relationships. “I no longer have an identity. … I don’t know if I’ll ever rebuild myself,” Gisèle Pelicot said.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The defendants have been charged with aggravated rape or attempted rape, with many <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/france-rape-case-gisele-pelicot-husband-dominique-trial-drugging-mass-rape/">facing 20 years in prison if convicted</a>. The trial is set to continue until December as the <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2024-09-05/a-french-woman-whose-husband-is-accused-of-inviting-men-to-rape-her-testifies-in-court">defendants make their testimony in groups.</a>&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>How the case factors into larger movements in France</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Pelicot case is just the latest to raise awareness of sexual abuses in France this year, after multiple cases of sexual misconduct by prominent actors and directors came to light.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Since February, several high-profile French actresses, including Godrèche, have spoken about being sexually assaulted in their teens by film directors. Notably, Godrèche was <a href="https://apnews.com/article/france-cinema-metoo-sexual-abuse-godreche-e215e51b38c9500c9ac032be99d4e0f0">invited to make remarks about this problem</a> at the Cesar Awards, the French equivalent of the Oscars, and was received with a standing ovation.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“After years in which the American #MeToo movement gained traction while in France it languished,” Rokhaya Diallo, a French journalist, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/27/france-me-too-film-actresses/">wrote of Godrèche for the Washington Post</a>, “this reception signaled that perhaps the larger culture here is finally ready to push back.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Such shifts come as France has been more resistant to confronting sexual abuses in the same way the US has, with some <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/metoo-france/story?id=66843843">French commentators</a> dubbing the #MeToo movement the latest extension of puritanical American culture.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But Godrèche’s speech and the Pelicot case, as well multiple allegations of sexual misconduct against famous French actor Gérard Depardieu, have put a new spotlight on the subject. <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20240314-macron-vows-to-integrate-consent-into-french-legislation-on-sexual-assault">Women’s rights advocates</a> have also urged lawmakers to add the term “consent” into the legal definition of rape, a move that French President Emmanuel Macron has said he supports. Currently, French law <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/ap-activists-call-on-france-to-endorse-a-consent-based-rape-definition-across-the-entire-european-union/">defines rape as</a> “an act of sexual penetration … committed on a person, with violence, coercion, threat, or surprise.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“While there is still perhaps more skepticism in France than in the US about the legitimacy of sexual assault and sexual harassment, these attitudes are changing fast, especially as a younger generation of women and French feminists and their male allies … are willing to confront these issues head-on,” Laura Frader, a professor of history emerita at Northeastern University who studies gender attitudes in Europe, told Vox. “The Pelicot case is certain to contribute to this trend.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong><em>Update, September 17, 5:15 pm ET: </em></strong><em>This story, originally published on September 9, has been update with the details of Dominique Pelicot’s testimony. </em></p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Will CEOs actually deliver on their Trumpy job promises?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/391601/trump-softbank-job-promises" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=391601</id>
			<updated>2024-12-18T18:00:08-05:00</updated>
			<published>2024-12-18T18:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[President-elect Donald Trump is soon to be back in office — and grandiose commitments from CEOs sure look poised to return, too.&#160;&#160;&#160; In a Monday briefing alongside SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, Trump announced the company’s commitment to invest $100 billion in US projects during his second term, with the promise of creating 100,000 new jobs. [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="President-elect Donald Trump and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son announce a new investment. " data-caption="President-elect Donald Trump looks on as SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son delivers remarks at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort on December 16, 2024, in Palm Beach, Florida. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Harnik/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/12/gettyimages-2189742945.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	President-elect Donald Trump looks on as SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son delivers remarks at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort on December 16, 2024, in Palm Beach, Florida. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">President-elect Donald Trump is soon to be back in office — and grandiose commitments from CEOs sure look poised to return, too.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In a Monday briefing alongside SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, Trump announced the company’s commitment to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtaPcFECfVY&amp;t=2135s">invest $100 billion in US projects</a> during his second term, with the promise of creating 100,000 new jobs. According to Trump, the new investments by SoftBank, a Japanese tech and telecom company, will focus on artificial intelligence and emerging technologies.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If that vow sounds familiar, it&#8217;s because Son offered a similar commitment after Trump&#8217;s first presidential win in 2016, when Son pledged a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/06/business/dealbook/donald-trump-mayayoshi-son-softbank.html">$50 billion investment</a> and the creation of <a href="https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/806214078465245185">50,000 new jobs</a>. But while SoftBank does seem to have followed through on its investment promise, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/softbank-ceo-announce-100-bln-investment-us-during-visit-trump-cnbc-reports-2024-12-16/">it&#8217;s “unclear” that the jobs followed</a> — a reminder that splashy announcements like Son&#8217;s latest should not necessarily be taken as iron-clad guarantees.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">While CNN’s Allison Morrow and David Goldman found that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/17/business/softbank-masa-son-trump-investment/index.html">SoftBank did invest roughly $75 billion</a> in US companies after its first pledge, it “never made clear how many of those jobs it actually created — and how many were actually a result of a <em>new</em> investment,” they write.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Vox reached out to SoftBank for clarity on its previous investments and how many jobs they generated but did not receive a response prior to publication.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Other corporate investments that Trump touted in his first term had underwhelming returns as well. In the case of Foxconn, a Taiwanese manufacturer, for example, the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/01/13/795847956/foxconn-promised-13-000-jobs-to-wisconsin-where-are-they">company promised a $10 billion Wisconsin plant and 13,000 jobs</a>, and fell short on both counts. An updated version of the deal eventually saw Foxconn reduce that figure to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/foxconn-plant-once-touted-trump-13-000-job-juggernaut-will-n1264793">roughly 1,500 jobs</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">According to a <a href="https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/trump-job-promises">2019 ProPublica investigation</a>, multiple other corporations, including <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/09/alibaba-to-discuss-expansion-plans-with-trump-company-aims-to-create-1-million-us-jobs-over-the-next-5-years.html">Alibaba</a> and Broadcom, were also cited by the Trump administration as sources for new jobs, though many of these gains never materialized.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Such pledges, though, still have value to a president who once vowed to run the country like a business, regardless of their eventual success. They provide a good headline for Trump, and a chance to burnish his self-created image as a “dealmaker.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Now that Trump is returning to power, business leaders are once more looking for ways to build influence with the administration, often with the goal of shaping favorable regulatory outcomes or government contracts. The SoftBank announcement suggests touting prominent job commitments, including those the company might not be able to deliver on, will continue to be one of those avenues.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How SoftBank’s last commitment panned out</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">SoftBank, which previously <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article327762.html">owned a large share in the telecom giant Sprint</a>, is known for investing in tech companies via its venture capital fund, the Vision Fund, which is backed in part by the <a href="https://wired.me/business/startups/pif-saudi-arabia-uae-mubadala-softbank-vision-fund/">Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates sovereign wealth funds</a>. The fund has poured billions into US tech behemoths, <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/5/10/18563267/softbank-vision-fund-explainer-uber-wework-slack-ipo">including Uber, WeWork, and Slack,</a> including <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/slack-worth-over-5-billion-after-250-million-investment-led-by-softbank.html">during the first Trump administration.</a>&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As the New York Times reported in 2019, though, many of these <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/26/business/softbank-wework-masayoshi-son.html">investments were already in the works ahead of Trump’s election</a>, and not the result of Son’s pledge.&nbsp;And in December 2019, Forbes reporters Biz Carson and Angel Au-Yeung published an investigation into whether those investments <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bizcarson/2019/12/10/softbank-masayoshi-son-job-promise-president-donald-trump-progress/">created the jobs Son advertised</a>, and were unable to find evidence corroborating job creation on the promised scale.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“SoftBank would not provide an estimate of how many jobs it has created in the U.S. since Son’s pledge,” they wrote. “Because the majority of the Vision Fund’s investments have gone to private companies, public data is not available, making it hard to hold Son accountable for his promise.” Carson and Au-Yeung also contacted 50 SoftBank-backed companies to inquire about new jobs they had added, with many declining to comment, while others reported only marginal gains.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The 2019 ProPublica report reached a similar conclusion, noting that <a href="https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/trump-job-promises">SoftBank’s investments had resulted in roughly 10,200 new or saved jobs</a> at that point in time, meaning it wasn’t on pace to generate 50,000 jobs by the end of Trump’s term. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Publicly available information about some of the companies in which SoftBank invested also suggests that it may have struggled to reach the job creation benchmark it set. Some of the larger firms it backed, like <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/18/21262337/uber-layoff-3000-employees-covid-19-coronavirus">Uber</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/21/wework-lays-off-2400-employees.html">WeWork</a>, for example, oversaw wide-ranging layoffs which affected thousands of employees in 2019 and 2020. And a number of other startups that SoftBank funded were much smaller, so there was less potential for establishing new jobs at a large scale.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">During Trump’s first term, SoftBank’s investment and jobs announcement came as the administration was poised to oversee a possible T-Mobile merger with Sprint, which the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/26/745544033/t-mobile-and-sprint-merger-finally-wins-justice-departments-blessing">Justice Department</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/11/05/776578139/fcc-clears-t-mobile-sprint-merger-deal">Federal Communications Commission</a> ultimately approved. This year, it comes as <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/tech-giant-softbank-investing-100-billion-us-116857521">Trump weighs tariffs on goods</a> from a number of US trading partners — including Japan, where SoftBank is headquartered.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">SoftBank’s example, as well as the slew of CEOs — including <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnusIcdWai4">Apple’s Tim Cook</a> and <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/tech-leaders-bezos-zuckerberg-cook-pichai-look-face-time-trump">Amazon’s Jeff Bezos</a> — recently traveling to meet with Trump, suggest the president-elect’s hold over big business is as strong as ever. But while announcements about new factories, billion-dollar investments, and spectacular job creation sound impressive, the results from Trump’s first term suggest the reality likely won’t match the promises that are made.&nbsp;</p>
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			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Love Is Blind just got hit with a federal labor complaint. Will it change anything?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/culture/391206/love-is-blind-nlrb-filing-employees" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=391206</id>
			<updated>2024-12-13T19:04:25-05:00</updated>
			<published>2024-12-14T06:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Culture" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[In a first for the reality television industry, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) argued on Wednesday that contestants on Netflix’s dating show Love Is Blind should be classified as employees — a designation that would give them significantly more on-set protections, including the ability to unionize.  The filing by the NLRB’s regional office in [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="A sign at a 2023 Love is Blind watch party in Los Angeles. " data-caption="Atmosphere at a watch party and celebration for Love Is Blind: The Live Reunion held on April 16, 2023, at the Vermont Hollywood in Los Angeles. | John Salangsang/Variety/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="John Salangsang/Variety/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/12/GettyImages-1251902836.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Atmosphere at a watch party and celebration for Love Is Blind: The Live Reunion held on April 16, 2023, at the Vermont Hollywood in Los Angeles. | John Salangsang/Variety/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">In a first for the reality television industry, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) argued on Wednesday that contestants on Netflix’s dating show <a href="https://www.nlrb.gov/case/18-CA-329487"><em>Love Is Blind</em> should be classified as employees</a> — a designation that would give them significantly more on-set protections, including the ability to unionize. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The filing by the NLRB’s regional office in Minneapolis comes after two of the show’s former contestants — Renee Poche and Nick Thompson — levied complaints with the Board, alleging unfair labor practices. Those complaints coincided with lawsuits filed by Poche and another former contestant, Tran Dang, both of whom raised worries about their physical safety on the program.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The filing is the start of a long process, and doesn’t immediately mean that <em>Love Is Blind</em> contestants have to be classified as employees. Depending on what happens in the new Trump administration, it’s also likely they may not attain that classification in the near term.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That’s because the NLRB’s statement is only an initial complaint against the two production companies — Kinetic Content and Delirium TV — that run the show, and multiple things still have to happen before that statement becomes policy. First, the companies have the option to reach a settlement with the NLRB. If they’re unable to, an administrative court will review the claims of labor violations next spring. Then, any decisions that are made could be subject to a series of appeals.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">President-elect Donald Trump’s ascent to the White House also adds uncertainty. As president, Trump will be able to name his own picks to key NLRB roles, including officials who could push for a favorable settlement for the companies, or drop the case. Kinetic Content (which oversees Delirium TV) and Netflix did not immediately respond to a request for comment.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That the NLRB has put forth the complaint is still notable, and spotlights important questions about how reality television contestants are treated, however. <em>Love Is Blind</em>, which has become highly popular on Netflix since it debuted in 2000, is far from the only reality TV show that’s seen contestants navigate <a href="https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20240311-legal-rights-of-reality-tv-stars">alleged abusive working conditions</a> and potential <a href="https://deadline.com/2023/08/vanderpump-rules-reality-tv-nda-lawsuit-bravo-1235528642/">threats of violence</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“If you look at some of their individual contracts, they&#8217;re pretty shocking,” Day Krolik, an adjunct law professor at New York University and former director of labor relations at NBC, told Vox, of reality show agreements broadly. “Some of them say the individual can expect to not have food for a protracted period of time … that you may be subject to what many would consider sexual harassment. You know, you agree to all this.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This would set an industrywide precedent if it became policy</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A key aspect of the complaint deals with how the production companies of<em> Love Is Blind</em> classify the contestants on the show. Currently, they’re participants, and not employees, which means productions aren’t subject to an array of legal requirements around wages, paid leave, or insurance. Notably, the contestants also aren’t able to unionize and don’t have protections under the National Labor Relations Act, which establishes the right to a union.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The issue of worker classification has been contested in other industries, too, including at gig economy companies like Uber and Lyft. As independent contractors, for instance, <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2024/2/14/24073382/lyft-uber-strike-valentines-day-2024">Lyft and Uber drivers are unable to unionize</a> and don’t have workplace safety protections, both gaps that have been points of contention.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If <em>Love Is Blind</em> contestants were considered employees, they’d be able to unionize and be able to receive crucial labor protections on multiple fronts.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“If they are considered employees then the employer may have to follow many other laws that cover employees: workers’ compensation, unemployment insurance, discrimination laws, OSHA, tax laws,” says Cathy Creighton, director of Cornell University’s Industrial and Labor Relations Buffalo Co-Lab.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Notably, too, that shift in classification could set a widespread precedent for the entire reality TV industry. The NLRB would evaluate each show on a case-by-case basis, experts tell Vox, but having another show be subject to a filing like this sets a legal standard that could be applied to others as well.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I think this would set a precedent that workers in similar situations should be covered employees under the National Labor Relations Act,” Laura Padin, director of work structures at the National Employment Law Project, told Vox.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Other parts of the NLRB filing take aim at common practices that reality shows are known to use, finding that <em>Love Is Blind</em>’s confidentiality agreements, non-compete clauses, and pay-or-stay requirements are also unlawful. Under these agreements, contestants are muzzled about many of their experiences on the show for a certain period of time, and had previously been threatened with a fine of $50,000 if they chose to leave the show early.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The filing is unlikely to translate to policy just yet</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The NLRB’s complaint is the beginning of a lengthy process to change how production companies treat the contestants on <em>Love Is Blind</em>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">One of two things will happen next.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The filing could be settled by the NLRB and the companies involved: This would involve negotiations between the NLRB and the production companies to try to find terms that both could agree to. If they’re unable to find such an agreement, the complaint will be evaluated by an administrative judge, who will hear arguments from both parties in April. Any decision made by that judge can then be appealed, including to the national board and then federal court.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Adding uncertainty into these proceedings is the fact that <a href="https://natlawreview.com/article/deja-vu-all-over-again-nlrb-faces-partisan-overhaul-again-key-legal-issues-hanging">Trump is widely expected to fire</a> the current NLRB general counsel, who is integral to overseeing these cases. A Trump general counsel could decide that they want to reach a quick settlement with the production companies or even drop the case. Trump is also set to fill the two <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-rejects-biden-labor-board-nominee-teeing-up-republican-control-2024-12-11/">open seats on the NLRB</a> with Republican members, giving the panel a GOP majority that’s set to take a more pro-business direction and rule favorably for companies if they have to consider an appeal.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As such, it’s not likely a reclassification of <em>Love Is Blind</em> contestants, or those of other reality shows, will happen in the near term.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Despite this, though, the NLRB announcement brings additional awareness to issues that have plagued the reality TV industry for years and could encourage other complaints, regardless of what happens with the <em>Love Is Blind</em> filing.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This “could change the reality TV industry forever,” Bryan Freedman, Poche’s attorney, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/12/business/love-is-blind-nlrb-employees/index.html">told CNN</a>. “The practices identified by the NLRB in its complaint against Delirium are ubiquitous in this space.”</p>
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