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	<title type="text">Nicole Narea | Vox</title>
	<subtitle type="text">Our world has too much noise and too little context. Vox helps you understand what matters.</subtitle>

	<updated>2025-11-18T22:44:58+00:00</updated>

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		<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Why didn’t Biden release the Epstein Files?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/421141/epstein-files-biden-trump-conspiracy" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=421141</id>
			<updated>2025-11-18T17:44:58-05:00</updated>
			<published>2025-11-14T10:10:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Editor’s note, November 14, 2025: On November 12, the House Oversight Committee released 20,000 pages of documents it received from Jeffrey Epstein&#8217;s estate. The documents provide further evidence about how well Donald Trump and Epstein knew one another and have led to a new round of questions about the nature of their relationship. The following [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="A large black billboard reads “Trump, why won’t you release the Epstein files?” while a man in a baseball cap stands in front of it." data-caption="A billboard in Times Square calls for the release of the Epstein Files on July 23, 2025, in New York City. | Adam Gray/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Adam Gray/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/07/gettyimages-2225863393.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	A billboard in Times Square calls for the release of the Epstein Files on July 23, 2025, in New York City. | Adam Gray/Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong><em>Editor’s note, November 14, 2025: </em></strong><em>On November 12, the House Oversight Committee released 20,000 pages of documents it received from Jeffrey Epstein&#8217;s estate. The documents provide further evidence about how well Donald Trump and Epstein knew one another and have led to a new round of questions about <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/468502/epstein-emails-trump-hours-house-virginia-giuffre">the nature of their relationship</a>.</em> <em>The following story was originally published in July 2025. </em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Reports of Donald Trump’s name <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/justice-department-told-trump-name-in-epstein-files-727a8038?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=ASWzDAhs60guN2chji6E2O9_tltAMPcKbgemn7N1sbx_9AU7CDiATuPRlVekJWAWnuI%3D&amp;gaa_ts=688276f5&amp;gaa_sig=iZoGVtF1djhyNDnpedNZ5ee5KVNnmkrvClTiqd_jfFKAKkObYA8N5HY2ZaCGmEPEBEAX7j5qX3d0X_g1Z7j_mA%3D%3D">repeatedly appearing</a> in the Jeffrey Epstein files, coupled with the unearthing of a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/trump-jeffrey-epstein-birthday-letter-we-have-certain-things-in-common-f918d796?mod=article_inline">suggestive birthday card</a> that the president sent the convicted sex offender, have renewed scrutiny of their relationship.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But if the government really had damning information about Trump’s entanglements with Epstein in its possession for years, then why didn’t his Democratic predecessor and political rival, President Joe Biden, ever release the files?</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s impossible to know for certain. Conspiracy theories about a government cover-up in the Epstein case have swirled around right-wing media circles since his 2019 death in prison, which was ruled a suicide.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But appearing in the Epstein Files might not, in and of itself, suggest any wrongdoing on Trump’s part. Even if the material in the sealed files does raise concerns, it would be highly unusual for the government to release that material outside of a courtroom.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>The challenges with releasing the files</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Epstein Files are a collection of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/us/politics/epstein-files-trump-bondi-justice-department-fbi.html">more than 100,000 pages of evidence</a> gathered as part of a Justice Department investigation. They include records of physical evidence, grand jury testimony, digital evidence recovered from technology seized at Epstein’s properties, and more.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After releasing an <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/attorney-general-pamela-bondi-releases-first-phase-declassified-epstein-files?utm_source=chatgpt.com">initial trove of documents</a> in February, the Justice Department <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/pam-bondi-epstein-files-maga-40383ad4?st=bc7vGQ&amp;reflink=article_copyURL_share&amp;mod=article_inline">announced</a> on July 7 that it would not be releasing any more, denying the existence of any “incriminating client list” from Epstein or anything else related to the case that ought to be publicly disclosed.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That prompted backlash from Trump’s base, and the president has maligned his supporters for not letting the issue go. The House <a href="https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/07/22/congress/house-gop-huddles-on-epstein-drama-00466738">shut down early for a month-long recess</a> on Thursday in order to prevent a vote on expediting the release of further documents, as the push has divided the Republican caucus. Trump himself is now on board, having recently <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-calls-for-release-of-epstein-documents-following-wsj-article-bc3c3a2b?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=ASWzDAizBF-v70z64GnYclkUHs8SZKPHbZ_lCALb5WVrRjS50Vj5RmXyx4PT5r2uuHc%3D&amp;gaa_ts=68828721&amp;gaa_sig=W-abFLFBVZPNb8WK2ObGD9mQ4WysAaxIVPtk1wx2NjxFF3XlaRxodEqFEsuCXEO7hqON74IDTMEvzQIdxFooIQ%3D%3D">called for the release of “pertinent” grand jury testimony</a> in two separate cases involving Epstein from 2005 and 2007.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A federal court in Florida has <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/judge-denies-doj-request-unseal-jeffrey-epstein-grand-jury-transcripts-rcna220607">denied</a> such a request from the DOJ. The department made a similar request to a separate court in New York, but its ruling is still pending.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump may hope that the release of the documents can put to rest speculation about his involvement with Epstein. That might be an unrealistic outcome given that the conspiracy theories have now taken on a life of their own and may be uncontainable. But the Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/justice-department-told-trump-name-in-epstein-files-727a8038?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=ASWzDAhs60guN2chji6E2O9_tltAMPcKbgemn7N1sbx_9AU7CDiATuPRlVekJWAWnuI%3D&amp;gaa_ts=688276f5&amp;gaa_sig=iZoGVtF1djhyNDnpedNZ5ee5KVNnmkrvClTiqd_jfFKAKkObYA8N5HY2ZaCGmEPEBEAX7j5qX3d0X_g1Z7j_mA%3D%3D">reported</a> that Trump’s was just one among hundreds of names, many of similarly prominent figures, featured in the unreleased Epstein Files. Those files include not just the grand jury testimony, but also <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/unreleased-epstein-files-include-logbooks-private-island-records/story?id=123851356&amp;utm_source=chatgpt.com">300 gigabytes of digital evidence</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If the files suggest that Trump’s involvement with Epstein really was just of the harmless social variety prior to <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/420340/jeffrey-epstein-trump-friends-birthday-book-secret">their reported falling out in 2004</a>, then the Biden administration would have had no obvious political reason to release them. (Former President Bill Clinton&#8217;s name appears in the files that were already released, although there is no allegation of any wrongdoing on Clinton&#8217;s part.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But it also couldn’t have done so without court approval. Grand jury testimony is secret by design: It allows jurors to confer about whether to charge someone with a crime confidentially and without outside influence or fear of public backlash. Such testimony is typically only released under exceptional circumstances, when a judge determines that the public interest overrides the interest in protecting the identity of witnesses, informants, and other people accused of crimes brought before the grand jury.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Alan Dershowitz, the lawyer who helped Epstein secure his 2008 plea deal on child prostitution charges in Florida, has <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5408598-trump-directs-release-epstein-documents/">said</a> that the grand jury testimony from that particular case includes a redacted FBI affidavit that names individuals who were accused of crimes in connection with Epstein.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">As for the remaining digital evidence, it’s highly unusual for the FBI to release information unrelated to charging individuals with a crime. There are several reasons for this, including the desire to protect individuals’ privacy and reputations and to protect ongoing investigations. The agency has said, however, that there would be <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1407001/dl?inline">no new indictments</a> related to Epstein based on a review of its existing investigation files.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So even if Democrats wanted to release the Epstein Files in their entirety during Biden’s presidency, it’s not clear that a court would have granted their request. Trump is now encountering the same issue — meaning that the firestorm around him might not die down anytime soon.</p>
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				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The Columbia deal with Trump is a blueprint. All of higher ed should fear what comes next.]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/421954/columbia-brown-harvard-trump-settlement-antisemitism" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=421954</id>
			<updated>2025-07-31T17:21:21-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-07-31T17:25:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Education" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Israel" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="LGBTQ" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Life" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Palestine" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[One by one, elite universities are signing away some of their autonomy to the Trump administration after it has accused them of civil rights violations and withheld federal funding. The University of Pennsylvania banned transgender women from participating in women’s college sports as part of an agreement with the Trump administration earlier this month. Columbia [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Rows of students in light blue graduation gowns and caps, with one cap in the center with Arabic writing on it." data-caption="A student wears a graduation cap with a verse from the Koran written on it at Columbia University in New York on May 21, 2025. | Jeenah Moon/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Jeenah Moon/AFP via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/07/gettyimages-2215661839.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	A student wears a graduation cap with a verse from the Koran written on it at Columbia University in New York on May 21, 2025. | Jeenah Moon/AFP via Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">One by one, elite universities are signing away some of their autonomy to the Trump administration after it has accused them of civil rights violations and withheld federal funding.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The University of Pennsylvania <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/01/us/penn-title-ix-transgender-swimmer-trump.html">banned transgender women from participating in women’s college sports</a> as part of an agreement with the Trump administration earlier this month.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Columbia University <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/nyregion/columbia-trump-settlement-what-to-know.html">agreed last week to pay $200 million</a> in penalties and fulfill a laundry list of other demands, from slashing diversity, equity, and inclusion programs to reviewing the curricula and personnel of its Middle Eastern studies department.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Brown University agreed to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/us/brown-trump-deal-university-funding.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&amp;referringSource=articleShare">pay $50 million Wednesday</a> to support Rhode Island state workforce initiatives, to abide by the Trump administration’s policies on trans athletes, and to apply what it refers to as “merit-based” university admissions.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Harvard University, despite <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/07/21/nx-s1-5462675/harvard-trump-court-hearing-boston">seeking to fight the administration’s allegations of antisemitism and demands in court</a>, is also reportedly in talks to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/us/politics/trump-harvard-payment.html">pay the federal government $500 million</a> as part of an agreement similar to the one signed by Columbia.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">These Ivy League schools have large endowments, billions of dollars in reserve funds that should put them in the best financial position among institutions of higher education to resist the administration’s allegations and attempts to hold their federal funding ransom. But so far, they have chosen to settle with Trump instead — and in so doing, campus free speech advocates say they are compromising academic freedom and dialogue throughout higher education.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Other schools, especially those less resourced, are likely to follow. The Trump administration has announced investigations into <a href="https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/see-which-schools-trumps-education-department-is-investigating-and-why/2025/03">more than 100 universities</a> related to their policies on DEI, transgender students, students with disabilities, disclosure of foreign gifts and contracts, and alleged antisemitism following student protests against Israel’s war in Gaza. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“This does set up a bit of a road map, unfortunately, that I think is probably going to ripple across higher education,” said <a href="https://pen.org/profile/kristen-shahverdian/">Kristen Shahverdian</a>, program director for campus free speech at PEN America, an organization that advocates for freedom of expression. “This most likely has emboldened the Trump administration.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>The Columbia agreement serves as a concerning blueprint</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Columbia has reached the most comprehensive deal signed by any university so far, and Education Secretary Linda McMahon has <a href="https://www.ed.gov/about/news/press-release/secretary-mcmahon-statement-columbia-university-deal">said</a> that it will “change the course of campus culture for years to come.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump had accused Columbia of failing to shield its students from antisemitic harassment and withheld $400 million in federal grants as a result.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The deal restores that funding. In exchange, Columbia did not admit any wrongdoing but agreed to comply with Trump’s demands on key policy priorities, and to pay $200 million to the US Treasury, as well as a separate $21 million to resolve civil rights complaints by Jewish students and staff.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the deal, the school agreed to crack down on student protests after the major <a href="https://www.vox.com/2024/4/24/24138333/columbia-student-protests-gaza-nyu-divest-faculty">protests over the war in Gaza</a> on campus last year. As a private institution, Columbia is not required to protect freedom of expression on its property to the degree required by the First Amendment. But along with its peers, Columbia has historically sought to hold itself to that standard. Its agreement with the Trump administration marks a paradigm shift in that respect.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The university vowed to discipline or expel students involved in demonstrations at Butler Library, enforce a ban on wearing masks during student protests, hire new security officers, and prevent student occupation of university buildings. Responsibilities for student discipline will also now be shifted from the faculty senate to the provost’s office to ensure additional oversight.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Those provisions have the potential to chill free speech. The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), a free speech advocacy group, has <a href="https://www.thefire.org/research-learn/columbia-memo-masking-bans">argued</a> that masking, for example, may give individuals who are not involved in illicit activities the opportunity to articulate controversial opinions without fear of retribution or to draw focus to their message over their identities. The Supreme Court has repeatedly overturned identification requirements for expression under the First Amendment, acknowledging that there are legitimate reasons to protest anonymously.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Columbia will also adopt the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance&#8217;s <a href="https://holocaustremembrance.com/resources/working-definition-antisemitism">definition of antisemitism</a>, which explicitly includes criticism of the state of Israel. That definition, that antisemitism is a “certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews,” seeks to restrict speech that would not be punishable under federal antidiscrimination law. Free speech advocates say it is overly broad and will chill freedom of expression.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“The IHRA definition doesn&#8217;t leave open what&#8217;s necessary on a college campus, which is dialogue, digging into issues being presented with different people&#8217;s different opinions, different research. It instead allows the university to restrict discussion and potentially to censor,” Shahverdian said.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The university will also conduct a review of its curricular offerings and leadership in the departments focused on Middle Eastern, South Asian, and African studies to ensure “balanced” content. It will create new joint faculty appointments to both the school’s Institute for Israel and Jewish Studies and to the departments of economics, political science, and the School of International and Public Affairs in order to promote an “intellectually diverse academic environment.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Columbia will reevaluate the number of international students it admits and ask them about their reasons for studying in the US. <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/17/columbia-international-students-threatened-trump-policies-00352712">About 40 percent</a> of the student body, both undergraduate and graduate-level, is foreign.  </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It has agreed to share information about disciplinary action that results in expulsions or suspensions of international students, as well as their arrest records or other criminal history that the university is aware of, with federal immigration authorities. That means the university could now report students to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement if they’re found to be in violation of the now more stringent campus policies on student protests, and the administration could take away their visa and deport them on that basis.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And the university will end “unlawful” DEI programs — including those that “provide benefits or advantages to individuals on the basis of protected characteristics.” In the agreement, it pledges not to consider race, color, sex, or national origin of a candidate in hiring or admissions decisions.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Some higher education experts, including Columbia’s acting president, have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/us/trump-university-deal-penn-columbia.html">pointed to one provision</a> in the deal as a win for academic freedom: that no part of the settlement “shall be construed as giving the United States authority to dictate faculty hiring, university hiring, admissions decisions or the content of academic speech.” (That same language shows up in the <a href="https://president.brown.edu/president/brown-and-us-government-reach-agreement">agreement that Brown signed this week</a>.)</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">However, it’s important to note that an independent monitor, jointly selected by Columbia and the federal government, will oversee and report on compliance with the Columbia deal. That monitor, Bart M. Schwartz from the compliance consulting company Guidepost Solutions, has already been chosen. That kind of arrangement is “incredibly unusual, really almost unprecedented,” Shahverdian said.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Despite the provision some call “a win,” then, the agreement could still significantly curtail Columbia’s institutional independence and threaten constitutional protections for academic freedom. Indeed, courts have repeatedly recognized that the First Amendment protects academic freedom — that is, that the freedom of speech clause protects schools’ and individual professors’ ability to disseminate expert knowledge.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“To make high-level decisions about academic work in these departments is core academic governance that we wouldn&#8217;t want to see [from the government],” said <a href="https://www.thefire.org/about-us/our-team/connor-murnane">Connor Murnane</a>, campus advocacy chief of staff at FIRE. “We think that the federal government doesn&#8217;t have a say in how a private institution reforms itself, if even possible.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Notably, the Trump administration’s demand that Harvard similarly appoint an independent monitor has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/us/politics/trump-harvard-payment.html">reportedly been a sticking point in ongoing negotiations</a>. It’s still unclear whether, as part of an eventual agreement like Columbia’s and Brown’s, Harvard will continue to pursue its lawsuit seeking to prevent the federal government from withholding federal funds. The school argues that those funds have been used &#8220;as leverage to gain control of academic decisionmaking at Harvard.&#8221;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>What the agreements mean for campus free speech</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Trump administration has managed to extract these agreements without doing much to even back up its claims of civil rights violations at elite universities.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Harvard argues in its lawsuit that the administration did not follow the required procedures to temporarily withhold federal funds. There is a process associated with adjudicating claims of discrimination under Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, but the White House followed no such process before retracting the funds.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In order to withhold funding permanently, the Trump administration would have had to prove, in a Title VI hearing before an administrative judge, that the alleged discrimination was committed. The universities would have had the opportunity to formally submit evidence and respond to the allegations against them.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Murnane said he’s not sure if Columbia would have successfully defended itself against allegations of antisemitism or if it would have been able to sufficiently reform its policies to come into compliance with federal civil rights law and avoid penalties. What actually constitutes antisemitism in the context of student protests over the war in Gaza was <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/12/15/24001823/antisemitism-college-harvard-penn-mit-free-speech">hotly debated even at the time</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And it’s worth noting that Columbia’s reaction to the protests last year was significantly harsher than its peers. It was the first elite school to <a href="https://www.vox.com/24147461/columbia-gaza-encampment-campus-protests-police-crackdown-pro-palestinian-students">call the police on its own students</a>, escalating campus unrest, and it swiftly expelled some of the students involved in the protests, while its peers pursued lesser disciplinary actions. Columbia also <a href="https://www.columbiaspectator.com/news/2024/11/13/new-york-state-supreme-court-upholds-columbias-suspension-of-sjp-and-jvp/">suspended its campus chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine</a>, one of the organizations that helped organize the protests, whereas its peers did not.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And before the agreement was reached, the university had already increased funding for Jewish student programs, enhanced security for Jewish centers on campus, and appointed a new vice provost for campus climate tasked with combating antisemitism.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Murnane noted that Harvard has also taken steps to improve the campus climate while respecting free speech, including adopting a pledge that classroom discussions cannot be attributed to particular individuals under <a href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/chatham-house-rule">Chatham House rules</a>, launching a program for students to debate issues with people who don’t share their opinions, and adding a question to their application asking about how students interact with people they disagree with.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Brown, too, reached an <a href="https://president.brown.edu/president/agreement-end-encampment">agreement</a> with Gaza protesters in 2024 that was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/30/us/brown-divestment-deal.html">widely praised</a> as a better means of encouraging campus dialogue compared to the approaches pursued by its peers. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But instead of evaluating the allegations against these universities and the steps they took as part of a formal process, the administration temporarily cut off funding unilaterally, as a tactic to bring the schools to the negotiating table and reach an alternative resolution to the legal cases against them. Given the amounts of federal funding on the line, in the hundreds of millions of dollars, universities have to some extent been backed into a corner.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But those with the endowments to weather the storm, including Columbia, whose endowment is <a href="https://endowment.giving.columbia.edu/endowment-performance-and-management/">$14.8 billion</a> (Harvard’s, for its part, is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/18/us/harvard-university-endowment">more than $53 billion</a>) did have a choice — and now all of higher education may pay the price.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“In the end, Columbia’s capitulation and Harvard’s behind-the-scenes negotiation send a troubling message to colleges and universities nationwide: yield to political pressure, and the pressure may momentarily subside. But behavior that gets rewarded gets repeated,” Murnane said. “This is not civil rights enforcement, it is political coercion under the color of law.”</p>
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				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Is anyone going to stop a looming death spiral in Gaza?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/421305/gaza-famine-israel-us-hamas-war" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=421305</id>
			<updated>2025-07-25T18:38:41-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-07-25T18:40:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Israel" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Palestine" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Gaza is on the brink of a mass starvation crisis, and once it starts, it will be difficult if not impossible to stop.&#160; The Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip has faced various levels of food insecurity throughout the war that Israel has waged on the territory since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, fluctuating with [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="A crowd of people, many crying and screaming, hold pots and pans over a low wall, as many arms as can fit outstretched, asking for food." data-caption="Palestinians carrying pans gather to receive hot meals, distributed by a charity organization in Gaza City, where residents are struggling to access food due to the ongoing Israeli blockade and attacks on July 23, 2025. | Khames Alrefi/Anadolu via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Khames Alrefi/Anadolu via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/07/gettyimages-2225764172.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Palestinians carrying pans gather to receive hot meals, distributed by a charity organization in Gaza City, where residents are struggling to access food due to the ongoing Israeli blockade and attacks on July 23, 2025. | Khames Alrefi/Anadolu via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">Gaza is on the brink of a mass starvation crisis, and once it starts, it will be difficult if not impossible to stop.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip has faced various levels of food insecurity throughout the war that Israel has waged on the territory since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, fluctuating with the amount of aid Israel has allowed to enter the enclave via checkpoints it controls. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In March 2024, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) — the primary organization tracking food insecurity worldwide — issued a warning that every resident of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/20/18080046/gaza-palestine-israel">Gaza</a> was at risk of crisis levels of food insecurity, and half were at risk of famine. (Crisis levels are reached when a population has “food consumption gaps alongside acute malnutrition” or is “only just able to meet their food needs, resorting to crisis coping strategies like selling off essential livelihood assets.” Famine is the most serious form of hunger, involving a complete lack of access to food and resulting starvation and death.) A famine was never officially declared, and food access peaked during the negotiated ceasefire reached in January. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In March, Israel <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/03/02/israel-gaza-netanyahu-aid?utm_">cut off all shipments into the Gaza Strip</a>, including food aid, when the ceasefire expired. Israel justified it as a <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-cuts-off-aid-gaza-hamas-ceasefire-deal/?utm_">tactical strategy</a> to get Hamas to release more Israeli hostages as part of continuing negotiations.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The flow of humanitarian aid has since slowed to a trickle under the purview of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a private group backed by the US and Israeli governments. It began operating in May, and is the sole entity that has been allowed to deliver food. <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/07/1165454">Almost one-third</a> of the 2.1 million people remaining in Gaza are not eating for multiple days in a row, according to the United Nations World Food Programme.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Israel has also made it treacherous for hungry Gazans to even access food from the GHF. The UN estimates that the Israeli military has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/07/23/nx-s1-5477365/israel-gaza-aid-casualties">killed more than 1,000 Palestinians</a> trying to get aid in Gaza since May. There are four GHF distribution centers throughout Gaza, three of which are in areas where the Israeli military has issued evacuation orders, and they are often only open for short periods of time, sometimes spurring <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2025/5/29/visual-guide-to-how-the-gaza-aid-distribution-turmoil-unfolded?utm_source=chatgpt.com">crowds to rush to get provisions</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">After enduring more than 21 months in a war zone with inadequate nutrition, the population of Gaza is worn down, and humanitarian groups say that imminent famine will likely cause many to die — not just from hunger, but also from preventable disease that their bodies can no longer fight off.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">To understand how Gaza got to this point and what happens next, I spoke with Jeremy Konyndyk, president of Refugees International, an organization that advocates for humanitarian assistance and protection for displaced people. Our conversation below has been edited for length and clarity.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>How has access to food in Gaza changed throughout the course of the war?&nbsp;</strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">What happened from really almost the start of the war through all of last year was a population that was hovering right at the edge of a starvation emergency, but never quite dipping fully into it.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Israeli government had been hugely restricting aid through January and February of 2024. The warning of potential famine came out in early March [2024], and then they subsequently allowed a great deal more aid in in April, and the situation improved. Some of the concessions that the Israelis then made in late March into April, and somewhat beyond that, really did make a meaningful difference. And then the <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/5/6/24150729/israel-rafah-hamas-ceasefire-gaza-cairo-khan-younis-idf-gallant-netanyahu">Rafah offensive started in May</a>, and things worsened again after that.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The period of the ceasefire [beginning in January 2025] was the best period for aid access since the war began. For six weeks, hundreds of aid trucks were coming in every day. There was relative freedom of movement and freedom of operation for aid organizations who previously had been heavily, heavily constricted by [Israel Defense Forces] operations and permission structures.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There was always just enough that would be allowed in to prevent the kind of full-blown famine outcomes that I think we&#8217;re now beginning to see.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Why is the population of Gaza now on the brink of starvation?</strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If you fully cut someone off [from food] when they are otherwise in good health, it&#8217;s going to take longer for them to deteriorate. If they have spent a year-plus being one step removed from starvation, then they&#8217;re much more vulnerable. Another shock to their system has the risk to be much, much more damaging.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I think that&#8217;s what we&#8217;re now seeing, when Israel withdrew from the ceasefire in March and imposed a total, complete, hermetic blockade on Gaza.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There was, for a while, enough residual aid that had been brought in during the ceasefire.The population could stretch that out and and make do for a while before the deprivation really started to bite again. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I would argue what we&#8217;re seeing is still effectively an extension of that blockade, because the primary aid that Israel has been allowing in is through this Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which is not a meaningful factor in terms of the hunger situation in Gaza. The amounts they&#8217;ve been letting in are vanishingly small.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is distributing modest amounts of very poor quality aid to, as far as we can tell, a pretty limited number of people: the ones who happen to be able to get to their sites, which is not most of the population. The cost of a bag of flour has gone up from 50 shekels during the ceasefire earlier this year to over <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/gaza-content-creators-post-videos-food-kitchens-amid/story?id=122130492">1,700 now</a>. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>What happens if famine sets in now?</strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">When you have a population that is that stressed, whose health has deteriorated that much, or is [already] in such an advanced state of population-level food deprivation and malnutrition, then things can turn bad very rapidly, because there is nothing to stand in the way of starvation.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">We have seen this kind of a trajectory in other settings before. Once people&#8217;s coping mechanisms are exhausted, once their food and financial reserves are exhausted, once their bodies are in a very weakened state due to sustained malnutrition over a long period of time, then it doesn&#8217;t take much to kill someone.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It is very hard for your body to fight off disease or survive an injury, or even just survive. In most famines, we see mortality coming from a mix of both outright starvation and opportunistic infections. So people&#8217;s bodies are greatly weakened, and they can&#8217;t fight off diseases that would otherwise be very survivable.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There is nothing coming on the horizon to improve that situation unless the Israeli government allows the mainstream professional humanitarian community to actually do their fucking jobs, and that is the one thing they will not allow.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Famines have <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/04/gaza-famine-israel-hamas-palestinians-hunger-aid.html">a momentum</a>, and the longer that they are allowed to deepen, the harder they are to reverse. You need your standard food aid package distributed at scale. But you also need specialized, fortified food products, because people are in such an advanced state of malnutrition. You need advanced therapeutic malnutrition treatment, because a lot more people are now going to be coming into an advanced state of malnutrition that requires inpatient malnutrition treatment. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">You need clean water because the food that&#8217;s being distributed has to be prepared with water. You need fuel so that people can cook the foods. You need medical treatment because many people who die in a famine die of disease, rather than outright starvation. And you need to improve sanitation, because if people do not have good sanitation, that&#8217;s what allows the spread of waterborne diseases.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">None of that&#8217;s possible right now.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Why in your view has the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation been so ineffective?</strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A core principle of humanitarian aid delivery is you want to get the aid as close to where the population is as possible.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Gaza Humanitarian Foundation <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2025/5/29/visual-guide-to-how-the-gaza-aid-distribution-turmoil-unfolded?utm_source=chatgpt.com">inverts that</a>: They make the people come to the aid, rather than bringing the aid to the people. And they make people come to the aid through a deeply insecure territory, past IDF forces, who have been consistently trigger-happy anytime they see a crowd of Palestinians nearby.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I and others warned very early on that this was likely to produce massacres, that this model was a recipe for disaster.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Another core principle of humanitarian aid is that you must not provide aid in a way that increases the risk to the population. There&#8217;s a very strongly ingrained ethos of “do no harm.” This is a “do harm” ethos, if anything. You&#8217;re creating a situation where, in order to access aid, you compel people to cross a military perimeter where they are routinely shot at. That is not humanitarianism.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Some advocates have suggested that Israel is using </strong><a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/07/gaza-evidence-points-to-israels-continued-use-of-starvation-to-inflict-genocide-against-palestinians/"><strong>starvation as a weapon of war</strong></a><strong>. Do you agree with that?</strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That&#8217;s indisputable. It&#8217;s explicit. They want Hamas to relent, and they see the starvation of the population as a pressure point there.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><strong>Do you think the US is complicit in that?</strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I think the US is certainly complicit in that. I think even the Biden administration bears a degree of complicity in that, because they put somewhat more pressure on the Israeli government than the Trump administration has. But fundamentally, they tolerated the situation that brought Gaza to this point.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">They tolerated a year-plus of starvation tactics being used, deprivation and illegal blockade tactics being used, and obstruction of aid, including aid provided by the US government. Rather than taking that on with the Netanyahu government, they did gimmick after gimmick. They did air drops. They did that ridiculous <a href="https://www.vox.com/world-politics/24159316/us-pier-gaza-hunger-humanitarian-aid-un-israel-palestine-rafah-cyprus">pier operation</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It wasn&#8217;t until nearly the very end of the administration that they sent the <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/israel-gaza-humanitarian-aid-blinken-pentagon-warning-letter">formal letter</a> to the Israeli government demanding concrete progress. And then, of course, there was no meaningful progress.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">I don&#8217;t think that solely falls on the Trump administration. Obviously, it is currently the Trump administration&#8217;s complicity.</p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Why tariffs haven’t caused runaway inflation — yet]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/421026/trump-tariffs-inflation-prices-fed" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=421026</id>
			<updated>2025-07-24T14:29:26-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-07-24T14:15:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Business &amp; Finance" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Economy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Money" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="World Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Initial predictions about runaway inflation and empty shelves after President Donald Trump announced his sweeping tariffs in April have yet to materialize. Some in the Trump administration have taken that as a sign that he should double down on tariffs. Earlier this month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X that the “inflation propagandists have [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="A dark-skinned young man with a red shirt and short-cropped black hair leans forward over a large mat, guiding a row of machinery across a long table of blue fabric." data-caption="A worker operates an industrial embroidery machine at a garment factory in Lahore, Pakistan, on July 14, 2025. | Arif Ali/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Arif Ali/AFP via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/07/gettyimages-2224487354.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	A worker operates an industrial embroidery machine at a garment factory in Lahore, Pakistan, on July 14, 2025. | Arif Ali/AFP via Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">Initial predictions about <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/04/26/trump-tariffs-shortages-prices-china-products?utm_">runaway inflation</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-increase-prices-empty-shelves-timeline-supply-chain-holidays-2025-4?utm_">empty shelves</a> after President Donald Trump announced his sweeping tariffs in April have yet to materialize.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Some in the Trump administration have taken that as a sign that he should double down on tariffs. Earlier this month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent <a href="https://x.com/SecScottBessent/status/1945566464695525494">posted on X</a> that the “inflation propagandists have been proven wrong.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/07/inflation-remains-right-on-target-under-president-trump/">said in a statement</a> that “President Trump is stabilizing inflation and the ‘panicans’ continue to be wrong about tariffs raising prices.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump himself <a href="https://apnews.com/article/inflation-trump-fed-powell-prices-8842d6ebca9d1870983e678e578d2091?utm_source=chatgpt.com">crowed</a> on his social network Truth Social: “Consumer Prices LOW,” he wrote, urging the Federal Reserve to bring down interest rates in response.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Their declarations of success, however, are likely premature.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The first indication that inflation might be ticking up came in June, when the consumer price index <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf">increased by 2.7 percent</a>, up from 2.4 percent the previous month. The prices of food, housing, and used cars increased at even higher rates.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And they may not be done climbing. Economists told Vox that the upward trend is likely to continue, so long as the tariffs remain in effect. Companies have taken steps to ride out the uncertainty that tariffs cause, but before the end of the year, they will face untenable financial pressure to raise prices, absent major changes in US trade policy.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“By the time we get to the end of August, you&#8217;ll kind of look back and it will appear that directionally, the people who said tariffs would increase prices over the summer were right,” said Daniel Hornung, a senior fellow at MIT and former deputy director of the National Economic Council under the Biden administration.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Why tariffs increase prices</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump’s tariffs are predicated on a faulty assumption that countries with a trade imbalance with the US — in which they export more to the US than they import from it — are taking advantage of America.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">However, such trade imbalances are not inherently bad. They <a href="https://www.cato.org/commentary/things-everyone-should-know-about-trade-deficits?gad_source=1&amp;gad_campaignid=85808169&amp;gbraid=0AAAAADusmudV7RazyQ_LcQYcu81fhLinL&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQjwkILEBhDeARIsAL--pjzZqx4CLEdqu8qNwdzMb89imDAOsApjoDRifnTSESyGWTimUWBiYwcaAtykEALw_wcB">don’t hurt US economic growth</a>, and they <a href="https://www.cato.org/commentary/things-everyone-should-know-about-trade-deficits?gad_source=1&amp;gad_campaignid=85808169&amp;gbraid=0AAAAADusmudV7RazyQ_LcQYcu81fhLinL&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQjwkILEBhDeARIsAL--pjzZqx4CLEdqu8qNwdzMb89imDAOsApjoDRifnTSESyGWTimUWBiYwcaAtykEALw_wcB">don’t correlate with higher American unemployment</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump’s rationale ignores why those imbalances might exist in the first place. One factor is the population profile of countries that trade with the US: Vietnam, for example, exports more than it imports from the US because it <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/trumps-idiotic-and-flawed-tariff-calculations-stun-economists">is relatively poor</a> and cannot afford to buy many American-made goods.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Americans’ consumption tendencies also lead to trade imbalances. Compared to other Western countries, Americans are a younger and faster-growing population, one that saves less and spends more on imported goods relative to its counterparts overseas.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There is also high foreign investment in the US, in part driven by the fact that the dollar is the world reserve currency and by the perception that American real estate and government debt are attractive investments.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump misunderstands these dynamics, and <a href="https://www.cato.org/commentary/things-everyone-should-know-about-trade-deficits?gad_source=1&amp;gad_campaignid=85808169&amp;gbraid=0AAAAADusmudV7RazyQ_LcQYcu81fhLinL&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQjwkILEBhDeARIsAL--pjzZqx4CLEdqu8qNwdzMb89imDAOsApjoDRifnTSESyGWTimUWBiYwcaAtykEALw_wcB">economists argue that tariffs won’t change them</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The president, nevertheless, believes that tariffs can rectify these imbalances by spurring a renaissance of domestic manufacturing, causing the US to import less, export more, and create more jobs. But that’s also unlikely.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The economy runs on confidence in the future. Businesses make plans months or years in advance hoping that their investments will eventually pay dividends. Consumers, too, are more likely to spend on goods and services that these businesses sell when they feel good about their prospects. Their spending helps support economic growth and a solid job market.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The uncertainty about whether and when Trump’s tariffs will roll out, and at what cost, has given businesses little reason to make massive new investments in US factories spanning years into the future. Such investment could be a risky bet when it’s not clear if Trump will back down on the tariffs — or be <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/419896/supreme-court-trump-tariffs-federal-circuit-vos-selections">forced to do so as part of a pending court case</a> — in a matter of months.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the meantime, tariffs will increase costs for producers and retailers, which they eventually have to pass on to US consumers if they wish to maintain their profit margins.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Why hasn’t inflation increased dramatically yet?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So far, companies have managed to avoid drastic price increases for a few reasons.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For one, the rollout of tariffs against many major US trading partners has been <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trumps-aug-1-tariff-deadline/story?id=123921765">delayed until August 1</a>. That includes a 35 percent tariff on Canada, a 50 percent tariff on Brazil, a 25 percent tariff on South Korea, and a 30 percent tariff on the European Union and Mexico.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Trump administration has been trying to negotiate deals with all of them before the August 1 deadline. On Wednesday, Japan <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/22/business/japan-trade-agreement-us">announced a deal</a> with the Trump administration that allowed it to avert higher tariff rates, but it will still face a 15 percent tariff on all exports to the US.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Notably, the US has also reached a temporary trade deal with China that lowered tariffs from 145 percent to 30 percent. That deal expires August 12, but Bessent has suggested that it is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2025/07/22/china-tariff-deal-likely-will-be-extended-bessent-says-but-others-will-still-take-effect-aug-1/">likely to be extended</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Collecting tariffs has yet to begin or has only recently begun for many countries, so the tariffs’ impact on prices has lagged — but it’s still on the horizon. <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/people/preston-caldwell">Preston Caldwell</a>, chief US economist for Morningstar, said that he predicts that inflation will peak not in 2025, but rather in 2026, as that impact spreads through the economy.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And the effect will be acute, given that even countries that have secured deals with the US face tariffs that would have once been unthinkably high. A flat 10 percent tariff on all imports was considered <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/407890/trump-tariffs-pause-stock-market-rally">a nightmare scenario</a> before Trump took office.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I don&#8217;t think predictions of inflation were wrong,” said Matt Colyar, an economist for Moody’s Analytics. “I just think it&#8217;s a matter of timing.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Companies have been reluctant to raise prices sharply and potentially drive away customers who were already struggling to keep up with inflation in the post-pandemic era. The Yale Budget Lab has projected that the tariffs could cost Americans an <a href="https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-july-14-2025">average $2,300</a> per household.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But some retailers also made preparations to mitigate the initial impact of tariffs on their businesses. Businesses that can afford it have been <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/retailers-bulk-up-inventories-to-blunt-tariff-impact-dd6e964f">stockpiling inventory for months</a> in an attempt to keep prices low and ride out the tariffs, hoping that Trump will change course. But their inventory will only last so long.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Companies have started paying tariffs on their imported goods, but as far as the goods that are being sold in stores right now, those are primarily being drawn from the inventory of goods that were brought in before the tariffs,” Caldwell said. “So most companies are still not really having to recognize the loss of tariffs yet to a great degree.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>What happens next</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There are some categories of goods that are likely to see higher price increases than others. That includes electronics, appliances, apparel, and furniture — durable goods that have a large import share, MIT’s Hornung said. Between February and June, the price of major appliances already increased by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-17/trump-tariffs-reach-us-consumers-with-inflation-expected-to-rise">5.7 percent</a>, and furniture and bedding prices rose by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-17/trump-tariffs-reach-us-consumers-with-inflation-expected-to-rise">1.7 percent</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“That’s different from what we&#8217;re seeing in categories that are not particularly import-sensitive, like the service sector. You have to look closely, but you are really seeing a divergence now between tariff-sensitive and non-tariff-sensitive categories,” Hornung said. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Fruit and coffee are some staple items that have a large share of imports that could also see price increases.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">By the time back-to-school shopping starts, Americans might start to notice the impact on their pocketbooks. Unlike big-ticket items, like cars, shoppers might not be able to put off purchases of smaller essentials.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“People don&#8217;t put off shoe purchases for years and years and years,” Hornung said. “That&#8217;s an example of one where you&#8217;ll both probably get the pricing effect, and you won&#8217;t see slowing demand sufficient to offset any of it.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Colyar said he’s also watching tariffs on copper imports.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Copper is in everything. It’s in electronic components. It’s fundamental to housing,” he said. “It’s an interesting bellwether for a pain point that people have very clearly communicated.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Companies are biding their time, hoping that they can get a reprieve from tariffs in the next few months. But they’re staring into a future where these kinds of changes become inevitable.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“The more that it becomes clear that tariffs are here for at least the foreseeable future, the more that they are going to have to eventually adjust to this new reality, which will entail increasing their prices,” Caldwell said.&nbsp;</p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The Trump administration’s fundamental misunderstanding about deportations]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/419820/trump-immigration-raid-ice-farm-economy-medicaid" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=419820</id>
			<updated>2025-07-15T15:44:50-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-07-16T07:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Immigration" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The Trump administration has offered little consolation to American businesses worried about losing undocumented workers to deportations. US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins did offer them one solution last week: to replace immigrant farmworkers with Americans who are now required to work in order to access Medicaid benefits, under the recently signed Republican spending bill.  “When [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
							<content type="html">
											<![CDATA[

						
<figure>

<img alt="Large group of people protesting and marching after an ICE raid." data-caption="People attend a rally and march on July 11, 2025, in Oxnard, California. The rally and march came a day after around 200 people were detained by federal officers during a raid at a cannabis farm in nearby Camarillo. | Eric Thayer/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Eric Thayer/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/07/gettyimages-2224044281.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	People attend a rally and march on July 11, 2025, in Oxnard, California. The rally and march came a day after around 200 people were detained by federal officers during a raid at a cannabis farm in nearby Camarillo. | Eric Thayer/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">The Trump administration has offered little consolation to American businesses worried about losing undocumented workers to deportations.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins did offer them one solution last week: to replace immigrant farmworkers with Americans who are <a href="https://www.vox.com/health/414045/big-beautiful-bill-congress-trump-medicaid-cuts">now required to work</a> in order to access Medicaid benefits, under the recently signed Republican spending bill. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“When you think about it, there are 34 million able-bodied adults in our Medicaid program,” she <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/08/politics/agriculture-secretary-medicaid-no-amnesty">said Tuesday in a news conference</a>. “So, no amnesty under any circumstances, mass deportations continue, but in a strategic and intentional way, as we move our workforce towards more automation and towards a 100 percent American workforce.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Unfortunately for the industries targeted in escalating immigration raids — at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jaime-alanis-immigrant-farmworker-death-raid-c3c6f60a087f5f9f1d2b053fcef35b57">farms</a>, <a href="https://www.wctv.tv/2025/06/18/over-dozen-including-6-tallahassee-construction-raid-indicted-florida-reentering-us-illegally/">construction sites</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/homeland-security-immigration-raids-resume">restaurants, hotels</a>, and other businesses — that is not a serious proposal.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Agricultural and hospitality industry leaders are pushing back and raising concerns about how<a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2025-06-19/farms-hotels-and-restaurants-press-trump-to-exempt-their-businesses-from-immigration-raids"> deportations could lead to labor shortages</a>. Though President Donald Trump has appeared publicly sympathetic to those concerns, it’s become clear that business interests aren’t driving his policy. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Rather, it’s immigration hardliners, led by White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who are. Republicans have <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/419342/trump-ice-deportation-detention-immigration-big-bill">handed US Immigration and Customs Enforcement an additional $75 billion</a>, and the agency is more well-resourced than ever as the administration aims for <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/06/12/trump-immigration-crackdown-rattles-businesses/84175142007/">3,000 immigration arrests per day</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/04/12/one-million-deportations-goal/">1 million deportations</a> in a single year. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I have complete faith that Secretary Noem and Stephen Miller and everyone else in the administration is 100 percent committed to this agenda,” said David Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The conflict between those hardliners and the affected industries reveals a key fiction at the center of Trump’s immigration policy: that masses of immigrant workers are taking away jobs from Americans who are willing and able to fill them. They aren’t. But that hasn’t stopped the administration from ramping up ICE raids that don’t just endanger immigrants and the businesses that rely on them. They’re also imperiling job opportunities and the affordability of goods and services available to all Americans.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Trump’s mixed messages about deportations</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Following the ICE raids in Los Angeles that spurred <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/06/09/la-protests-immigration-ice-raids-national-guard-explained/#7GLSBPF2VFCKZAA66FDXHCENRY-1">mass protests</a> in early June, some business leaders started becoming more vocal about their <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/06/12/trump-immigration-crackdown-rattles-businesses/84175142007/">fears that worksite immigration raids</a> could upend their companies.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That prompted Trump, at the urging of Rollins, to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/us/politics/trump-undocumented-immigrants-farmers-hotels.html">publicly pledge to work with farming and hospitality businesses</a> to <a href="https://reason.com/2025/07/08/trump-reiterates-his-promise-to-protect-farm-and-hospitality-workers-from-pretty-vicious-deportation/">protect their workers and to pause workplace raids</a> for a few days. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Our great Farmers and people in the Hotel and Leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace,” Trump <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/06/12/trump-immigration-crackdown-rattles-businesses/84175142007/">wrote</a> on his Truth Social platform in June.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">On July 4, he said he would put <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5385223-trump-farmers-immigration-undocumented-workers/">farmers “in charge” of immigration enforcement</a> when it came to their own businesses, but warned that if they did not do a “good job, we’ll throw [undocumented workers] out of the country.” </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In practice, however, it’s not clear that the Trump administration has retreated on immigration raids since then.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">ICE carried out a major raid at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/california-immigration-raid-troops-military-2d81f5c35f9d11db9e32234e03480497">MacArthur Park in Los Angeles</a> on July 7<strong> </strong>and on <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jaime-alanis-immigrant-farmworker-death-raid-c3c6f60a087f5f9f1d2b053fcef35b57">two California cannabis farms</a> on July 10.<strong> </strong>At one called Glass House, farmworker <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jaime-alanis-immigrant-farmworker-death-raid-c3c6f60a087f5f9f1d2b053fcef35b57">Jaime Alanis</a> fell from the top of a greenhouse during the operation and died from his injuries. The New York Times also reported that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/us/politics/trump-undocumented-immigrants-farmers-hotels.html">no business is exempt from worksite immigration enforcement</a> under current ICE policy.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Bier said that he has not put any stock into Trump’s overtures to industry leaders on deportations.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I said when he first made a statement to this effect that he was not going to change anything about ICE’s operations,” he said.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>The fundamental misunderstanding behind Trump’s immigration raids</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Immigration hardliners in the Trump administration are operating under the assumption that businesses affected by raids can just hire Americans instead of undocumented immigrants.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In reality, many of those immigrants work jobs that no Americans want — even during times of high unemployment and especially when it comes to low-paid, back-breaking positions in agriculture.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“The idea that there are millions of people waiting around who are willing and able to do this type of farm labor is misguided,” said Tara Watson, director of the Center of Economic Security and Opportunity and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Bier said some of the best evidence of that is a study of the <a href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/nc-agr-report-05-20131.pdf">North Carolina agricultural industry</a> in 2011.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Researchers found that, of the nearly half a million unemployed North Carolinians at the time, only 268 native-born Americans applied for 6,500 farm job openings despite the fact that employers were required to publicly advertise the positions. Over 90 percent of those applicants were hired, but most did not show up for their first day of work or quit within a month. Only seven completed the entire growing season.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Medicaid recipients in particular are even less likely to fill agricultural job openings than Americans overall, despite Rollins’s suggestion to the contrary.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For one, there aren’t actually many Medicaid recipients who don’t already have a job and are able to work at all, let alone able to work a physically demanding job in agriculture. A <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/any-way-you-look-at-it-you-lose-medicaid-work-requirements-will-either-fall-short-of-anticipating-savings-or-harm-vulnerable-beneficiaries/">Brookings study</a> found that out of the <a href="https://www.medicaid.gov/medicaid/program-information/medicaid-and-chip-enrollment-data/report-highlights">roughly 71.3 million recipients of Medicaid</a>, only 300,000 people did not qualify for exemptions to the new work requirements and were not working because they didn’t want to.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“There&#8217;s a reason why they&#8217;re on Medicaid, and that&#8217;s because they&#8217;re kids, they&#8217;re elderly, or they&#8217;re disabled, or they already have a job that just doesn&#8217;t provide them with the kind of health insurance that they need,” said Ben Zipperer, a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/state-indicator/medicaid-enrollees-by-urban-rural-status/?currentTimeframe=0&amp;sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D">Medicaid recipients</a> are also predominantly located in urban areas and aren’t likely to relocate for a low-paid job in agriculture. They are very unlikely to swoop in and save farms hard-hit by immigration raids. The fact that the administration is pushing that fantasy shows that its theory of how its immigration policies will affect businesses and the broader economy is misguided.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>The economic cost of immigration raids</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Mass deportations of farm workers alone could deal the US a significant blow. It would likely slash domestic agricultural production, driving up food prices for most Americans.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Watson said that farms would find it almost impossible to hire people to do labor that cannot be automated, forcing some to move their production abroad. The US might have to start importing certain crops at a higher price depending on the outcome of Trump’s tariff negotiations. He has already slapped a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/business/economy/trump-tariff-mexican-tomatoes.html">17 percent tariff on Mexican tomatoes</a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“If the labor supply for farms is greatly restricted, then farms will produce less, and that will be passed on to consumers as higher prices,” Bier, of the Cato Institute, said.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Beyond agriculture, Trump’s immigration raids could actually cause the overall job supply to shrink, rather than creating openings that Americans would readily fill.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A <a href="https://www.epi.org/publication/trumps-deportation-agenda-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-both-immigrants-and-u-s-born-workers-would-suffer-job-losses-particularly-in-construction-and-child-care/">study by the Economic Policy Institute</a> found that, if Trump meets his goal of deporting 1 million immigrants every year of his second term, it would eliminate the jobs of 3.3 million immigrants and 2.6 million US-born workers by the time he leaves office. The job supply in construction would be particularly hard-hit, falling almost 19 percent overall.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That’s because immigrants typically have jobs that complement those worked by Americans, filling job openings that the latter will not, and because immigrants also create jobs as business owners and consumers of American goods and services.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For that reason, deporting immigrant workers who have no criminal record as part of Trump’s “America First” agenda is “just building on a myth that immigrants in the US are ‘taking American jobs,’” Watson said. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“There&#8217;s been a huge amount of economics literature suggesting that that&#8217;s not the case, and that, in fact, immigrants end up generating more jobs for US-born people,” she said.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[What ICE’s big payday means for America]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/419342/trump-ice-deportation-detention-immigration-big-bill" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=419342</id>
			<updated>2025-07-09T12:53:31-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-07-10T06:30:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Criminal Justice" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Immigration" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Republicans just gave US Immigration and Customs Enforcement a huge cash infusion, and President Donald Trump knows how he wants the agency to use it.&#160; During his first six months in office, the Trump administration was already using immigration enforcement to punish its political enemies and to advance a white-centric image of America. The Republican [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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											<![CDATA[

						
<figure>

<img alt="Truck with the sign ICE out of LA" data-caption="Several dozen protesters stage a demonstration on the Sixth Street Bridge between downtown Los Angeles and Boyle Heights protesting ICE deportation operations on July 1, 2025. | Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/07/gettyimages-2222400576.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Several dozen protesters stage a demonstration on the Sixth Street Bridge between downtown Los Angeles and Boyle Heights protesting ICE deportation operations on July 1, 2025. | Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">Republicans just gave US Immigration and Customs Enforcement a huge cash infusion, and President Donald Trump knows how he wants the agency to use it.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">During his first six months in office, the Trump administration was already using immigration enforcement to <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/403454/mahmoud-khalil-palestinian-student-columbia-trump">punish its political enemies</a> and to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/us/politics/trump-race-south-africa.html">advance a white-centric image of America</a>. The Republican spending bill that Trump signed last week allocated <a href="https://immigrationforum.org/article/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-immigration-provisions/">$75 billion in additional funding</a> to ICE over the next four years, allowing it to implement those tactics on an even grander scale.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That’s despite <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/17/views-of-the-trump-administrations-immigration-policies/">growing public opposition to Trump’s immigration policies</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/416496/trump-immigration-worksite-raids-los-angeles-protests">recent mass protests</a> against workplace immigration raids in Los Angeles.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There is a question of how quickly ICE can build up its infrastructure and personnel using its newfound resources. But just days after the bill passed, the administration made a <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-07-07/immigration-agents-descend-on-macarthur-park">show of force at Los Angeles’s MacArthur Park</a> on Monday, with heavily armed immigration agents in tactical gear and military-style trucks showing up to arrest undocumented immigrants.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That may only be the beginning. ICE may not yet be able to deport 1 million undocumented immigrants in a single year — the goal that the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/04/12/one-million-deportations-goal/">Trump administration has privately set</a>.<strong> </strong></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">However, the agency is already infringing on civil liberties under this administration in ways that should worry not just immigrants, but every American, said Shayna Kessler, director of the Advancing Universal Representation Initiative at the Vera Institute of Justice, a criminal justice reform advocacy group.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“The tactics of this administration are sweeping and indiscriminate,” Kessler said. “The administration is continuing to widen the circle of people that they&#8217;re subjecting to criminalization, to detention, and to deportation. It’s happening in a way that is undermining due process and our fundamental values.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>What’s in the bill and what it means for America</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The bill allocates $45 billion for immigration detention and $29.9 billion for enforcement and deportation activities. It represents the largest lump sum investment in immigration enforcement on US soil since 2003, when the Department of Homeland Security was created following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">With that money — a <a href="https://immigrationforum.org/article/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-immigration-provisions/">308 percent annual increase</a> over its 2024 budget — ICE will be able to increase its immigration detention capacity from <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-record-59000-immigrant-detainees-half-no-criminal-record/">41,500</a> to <a href="https://immigrationforum.org/article/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-immigration-provisions/">116,000</a> detainee beds.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">So far, those beds have not been reserved only for those with a criminal background, despite Trump’s vow that he would focus on deporting the “<a href="https://abc7.com/post/donald-trump-news-today-president-vowed-deport-worst-ice-is-arresting-criminals-data-show/16899773/">worst of the worst</a>.” As of June, about half of people in ICE detention had <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-record-59000-immigrant-detainees-half-no-criminal-record/">no criminal record</a>, and only about a third had been convicted of a crime.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Under the current administration, there have already been reports of inhumane conditions at various immigration detention centers. In Florida, which has cooperated closely with federal immigration agents, detainees at Krome Detention Center in Miami recently gathered outside the prison to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/06/05/nx-s1-5413364/concerns-over-conditions-in-u-s-immigration-detention-were-hearing-the-word-starving">make a human SOS sign</a> after they endured&nbsp;sleeping on the floor, being underfed, and not getting necessary medical attention.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The bill aims to incentivize state and local governments to follow Florida’s lead and collaborate with federal immigration authorities on detention, offering them <a href="https://immigrationforum.org/article/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-immigration-provisions/">$3.5 billion total in federal grants</a> as a reward. Even some states and cities that previously adopted “sanctuary” policies — refusing to cooperate with ICE to detain immigrants — <a href="https://www.vox.com/trump-administration/411668/trump-sanctuary-cities-executive-order-court-democrats">might not want to leave that money on the table</a>, said Jennie Murray, president and CEO of the National Immigration Forum, an immigrant advocacy group. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That’s despite research showing that sanctuary policies make immigrants <a href="https://www.nilc.org/articles/data-shows-sanctuary-policies-make-communities-safer-healthier-and-more-prosperous/">more likely to report crimes</a> and are associated with <a href="https://www.nilc.org/articles/data-shows-sanctuary-policies-make-communities-safer-healthier-and-more-prosperous/">decreases in crime rates</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The bill also grants ICE essentially a blank check for funding enforcement and deportation activities. Where the House version of the bill allocated specific amounts for particular enforcement purposes, such as transportation or removal operations, the version of the bill passed by the Senate and signed by the president does not specify any such guardrails.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump has so far <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/416901/trump-mass-deportation-obama-border-raids-ice">failed to come close</a> to achieving what <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/trump-threatens-mass-deportations-at-rally-in-new-york-city/video-70617302">he promised</a> would be “the largest deportation program in American history.” As Trump’s deportation numbers have <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/416901/trump-mass-deportation-obama-border-raids-ice">lagged behind the modern record</a> set by former President Barack Obama, he has resorted to deporting some of the easiest targets: people who show up to their obligatory <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/ice-arrests-record-number-immigrants-single-day-rcna210817">check-ins with ICE officers</a> after being released from immigration detention under a program for individuals deemed not to be a public safety threat. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Regardless of their background, regardless of whether they’re parents, regardless of whether they are working long-term jobs and supporting their community, they&#8217;re being swept up and facing inhumane detention and the prospect of permanent family separation and permanent separation from their communities and their jobs,” Kessler said.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>The obstacles Trump still faces</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Nevertheless, even with these extra funds, it’s not clear if Trump’s vision for deporting millions of undocumented immigrants will become a reality.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For one, it takes time to hire new immigration agents, sign cooperation agreements with local law enforcement agencies that facilitate the detention of immigrants, build new detention facilities, conduct immigration court proceedings, and charter deportation flights. There are countries that <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/04/12/one-million-deportations-goal/">refuse to take their citizens back as deportees,</a> although the administration is reportedly in talks with other countries to accept them instead.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Resistance from business owners who rely on immigrant workers also appears to have given Trump hesitation. He has repeatedly promised in the weeks since the LA raids to <a href="https://reason.com/2025/07/08/trump-reiterates-his-promise-to-protect-farm-and-hospitality-workers-from-pretty-vicious-deportation/">shield farmworkers and hospitality workers from deportation</a>, especially now that his administration has stripped 3 million people of deportation protections such as parole and Temporary Protected Status.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“While this infusion of resources absolutely will help them get much more volume, I do think that we continue to see the administration and Trump himself realizing that it can&#8217;t be carte blanche, and that they need to make sure that American businesses aren&#8217;t destabilized,” Murray said.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For that reason, she said the increase in funding for deportation worries her less than the provisions in the bill that rapidly ramp up immigration detention, potentially too quickly to ensure humane treatment of those in custody.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But she also said it’s “difficult to know 100 percent” what Trump will do.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“We can only expect that they&#8217;ll continue to target people attempting to comply with the law,” Kessler said. “They&#8217;ll continue to target people who are engaging in political speech that is disfavored by the administration. They will continue to threaten the security of US citizens for political reasons.”</p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The repressive tool behind Trump&#8217;s latest immigration crackdown]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/418809/trump-immigration-denaturalization-citizenship-mamdani-musk" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=418809</id>
			<updated>2025-07-08T18:32:51-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-07-07T07:00:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Immigration" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[President Donald Trump is reviving a familiar playbook to target naturalized US citizens.&#160; The Justice Department recently announced a new push to strip certain people of their citizenship through denaturalization proceedings. Individuals who pose a danger to national security, have committed violent crimes, or fail to disclose a felony history (or make other misrepresentations) on [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="People react after getting their certificate of naturalization during a naturalization ceremony." data-caption="People react after getting their certificate of naturalization during a naturalization ceremony at the JFK Library in Boston on May 22." data-portal-copyright="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/07/gettyimages-2216137322.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	People react after getting their certificate of naturalization during a naturalization ceremony at the JFK Library in Boston on May 22.	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">President Donald Trump is reviving a familiar playbook to target naturalized US citizens.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Justice Department recently <a href="https://www.justice.gov/civil/media/1404046/dl?inline">announced a new push </a>to strip certain people of their citizenship through denaturalization proceedings. Individuals who pose a danger to national security, have committed violent crimes, or fail to disclose a felony history (or make other misrepresentations) on their citizenship application are among those now being prioritized for denaturalization and deportation. In doing so, the administration is likely seeking to expand an authority that the Supreme Court drastically limited decades ago.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The president and White House officials have suggested that some prominent denaturalization targets could include <a href="https://twitter.com/Emilylgoodin/status/1940020592360509908">one-time Trump megadonor Elon Musk</a>, with whom the president had a public falling out, and <a href="https://x.com/atrupar/status/1939739342450065722">Zohran Mamdani</a>, a progressive who recently won the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York City. It’s not clear, however, what legitimate grounds the administration might have to denaturalize either of them.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The news may rattle any of the <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/naturalization-trends-united-states">estimated 24.5 million naturalized citizens</a> currently living in the US. That might especially be the case for those who have voiced opposition to Trump, given that his administration has already <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/403454/mahmoud-khalil-palestinian-student-columbia-trump">weaponized immigration policy</a> against dissidents.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Ostensibly, denaturalization is about protecting the integrity of the citizenship process. In practice, the new push “is about targeting speech the government doesn’t like, and it is chilling all naturalized citizens,” said Amanda Frost, a professor at the University of Virginia School of Law and author of <em>You Are Not American: Citizenship Stripping From Dred Scott to the Dreamers.</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">This wouldn’t be the first time denaturalization has been used as a tool of political repression. During the Red Scare following World War II, the US pursued denaturalization cases with an eye toward rooting out un-American behavior, both real and perceived.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Scholars now see echoes of that era in Trump’s strategy.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“There&#8217;s increasing rhetoric of trying to take people&#8217;s citizenship away for political reasons,” said Cassandra Burke Robinson, a professor at Case Western Reserve University School of Law who has studied denaturalization. “I think any time you treat that as even a possibility to be considered, you&#8217;re going down a really dangerous slope.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>What denaturalization looked like during the Red Scare</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the 1950s and 1960s, fears about the spread of communism took hold of the US. A political movement known as McCarthyism — named after then-Sen. Joseph McCarthy — sought to purge anyone in government with connections to the Communist Party. Denaturalization was one of the tools McCarthyites relied on, and, at the height of the movement, the US was denaturalizing more than 20,000 people per year, Burke Robinson said.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In these cases, the government argued that if an individual became a member of the Communist Party at any time, that person had been lying when taking an oath of allegiance to the US as part of their citizenship test and, therefore, could be denaturalized. Later, that argument evolved to target Americans with disfavored political views or who were perceived as disloyal to the US more broadly, not just Communist Party members.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">One primary target of denaturalization was members of the German American Bund, the American Nazi organization. However, targets also included political gadflies, such as labor leaders, journalists, and anarchists.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Those whose speech the government didn&#8217;t like could get removed, and everyone else could stay. They used their discretion in this area to accomplish that goal,” Frost said.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Among those targeted for denaturalization was the <a href="https://www.cschs.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/History-Resources-Caragozian-Harry-Bridges-5-29-2024.pdf">Australian-born labor leader Harry Bridges</a>, who led longshoremen strikes in California. He accepted support from the Communist Party as part of his union activities, but the government never found evidence that he was a member himself. The notorious House Un-American Activities Committee investigated Bridges, and the government sought his deportation and, once he became a citizen, denaturalization, but never succeeded.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Denaturalizations decreased significantly, from tens of thousands to fewer than 10 annually, after the Supreme Court’s <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1966/456">1967 decision in <em>Afroyim v. Rusk</em></a>. In that case, the justices found that the US government does not have the power to denaturalize people without their consent because citizenship is guaranteed by the Constitution’s 14th Amendment.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“They said you could only lose your citizenship if you very explicitly renounce,” Frost said. “The United States government governs with the consent of the citizens. It&#8217;s not allowed to choose its citizens.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For decades, the ruling meant that denaturalization was a rare phenomenon. However, the court included an exception for cases in which citizenship is “<a href="https://aci.princeton.edu/sites/g/files/toruqf4201/files/aci/files/aci1.afroyim.pdf">unlawfully procured</a>” — meaning they were not eligible for citizenship in the first place due to acts like committing war crimes. That’s what Trump is now relying on to revive the tactic.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>What Trump’s denaturalization plans could look like</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Denaturalizations have been increasing since the Obama administration, when the digitization of naturalization records made it easier to identify individuals whose citizenship applications showed discrepancies with other government records. Most denaturalization cases during this period involved people who had committed acts of terrorism or war crimes.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But Trump made denaturalization a priority during his first administration, including targeting anyone who merely had errors on their naturalization papers. The DOJ launched a <a href="https://americanoversight.org/records-shed-new-light-on-doj-denaturalization-section/?utm_">new section focused on denaturalization</a> and investigated <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/01/27/trump-resumes-threat-to-denaturalize-citizens/77905612007/?utm_">some 700,000 naturalized citizens</a>, resulting in <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/01/27/trump-resumes-threat-to-denaturalize-citizens/77905612007/?utm_">168 active denaturalization cases</a> — more than under any other modern president. It’s not clear how many of them were ultimately denaturalized and deported.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump is now picking up where he left off. The administration has said that it will pursue these denaturalization cases in civil rather than criminal court proceedings. In such proceedings, individuals are not entitled to an attorney, and the legal bar for the administration to prove that a citizen did something to warrant denaturalization is lower than it would be in criminal court. There is also no limit on how long after naturalization the government can seek to revoke someone&#8217;s citizenship.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">All of that raises due process concerns.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“Somebody might not know about the proceedings against them. There might be a good defense that they&#8217;re not able to offer. There&#8217;s no right to an attorney,” Burke Robinson said. “It seems to me to be really problematic.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There’s also the question of to what degree this Supreme Court will be willing to rein in Trump’s denaturalization efforts. Its 2017 decision in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2016/16-309"><em>Maslenjak v. United States</em></a><em> </em>maintained a high bar for denaturalization: The Court found that an alleged misstatement in a Bosnian refugee’s citizenship paperwork could not have kept them from becoming a citizen, even if it had been discovered before their naturalization, and could not be used as grounds to denaturalize them in criminal proceedings.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That makes Burke Robinson “somewhat hopeful that the court does take the issue very seriously.”&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“But that was 2017,” she added. “It is a different court now, so it’s very hard to predict.”</p>

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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The Republican spending bill is a disaster for reproductive rights]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/417995/trump-big-beautiful-bill-abortion-planned-parenthood-reproductive" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=417995</id>
			<updated>2025-06-30T17:11:28-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-06-30T17:20:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Abortion" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Congress" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Three years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Republicans in Congress are poised to further erode access to abortion and reproductive care. President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would not only directly threaten reproductive care by defunding Planned Parenthood and other abortion providers, it would also incentivize insurers for Affordable Care Act plans [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="Abortion rights supporters confronting protesters outside Planned Parenthood in New York City in 2023" data-caption="The Congressional Budget Office estimates that defunding Planned Parenthood would raise the deficit by about $300 million. | Leonardo Munoz/VIEWpress/Corbis via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Leonardo Munoz/VIEWpress/Corbis via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/06/gettyimages-1471238160.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	The Congressional Budget Office estimates that defunding Planned Parenthood would raise the deficit by about $300 million. | Leonardo Munoz/VIEWpress/Corbis via Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p class="has-text-align-none">Three years after the Supreme Court overturned <em>Roe v. Wade</em>, Republicans in Congress are poised to further erode access to abortion and reproductive care.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would not only directly threaten reproductive care by <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/poll-finding/kff-health-tracking-poll-views-of-the-one-big-beautiful-bill/">defunding Planned Parenthood and other abortion providers</a>, it would also incentivize insurers for Affordable Care Act plans in some states to drop abortion coverage or make it significantly more expensive.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And it would <a href="https://www.vox.com/health/417639/trump-medicaid-health-insurance-big-beautiful-bill">slash Medicaid coverage</a>, impacting Americans’ ability to access medical care of all sorts. Though Medicaid funds cannot fund abortions except under very narrow circumstances, the cuts would threaten access to non-abortion reproductive care. Many abortion providers, including Planned Parenthood, also offer health care in the form of contraceptives, treatment for sexually transmitted diseases, and cervical cancer screenings.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">GOP lawmakers are targeting a July 4 deadline to pass the bill. It passed the House in May and cleared a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/28/politics/senate-gop-trump-agenda-bill">key procedural vote</a> in the Senate on Saturday. Following a rapid-fire vote on a series of amendments, the bill could go up for a final vote in the Senate as soon as Monday night. GOP lawmakers have faced many internal disagreements about the bill, but there’s a strong push to include both attacks on Planned Parenthood and cuts to Medicaid.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If the initiatives go through, they’ll come at a time when abortion rights and access are under attack, but the actual number of abortions has increased.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"><a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/06/23/abortion-increased-2024-telehealth-report">Monthly abortions in the US</a> are up about 19 percent nationally since the Supreme Court struck down <em>Roe </em>in the 2022 case<em> Dobbs v. Jackson Women&#8217;s Health Organization.</em></p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That’s driven almost entirely by the increasing prevalence of medication abortion. It also comes despite the fact that accessing in-person abortion care has become significantly harder, with many women having to travel much further to their nearest clinic due to closures.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Republicans in Congress are trying to create additional hurdles to accessing such care and other women’s health services, both in-person and via telehealth — even in states that have sought to protect reproductive rights. A Supreme Court ruling on Thursday allows states to move forward with their <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/417844/supreme-court-medicaid-abortion-medina-planned-parenthood-south-carolina">attempts to defund Planned Parenthood</a> will make their task easier.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“What we&#8217;ve heard from a lot of anti-abortion politicians since <em>Dobbs</em> is that this was just the way to return the issue to the states,” said Katie O&#8217;Connor, senior director of federal abortion policy at the National Women’s Law Center. “It indicates that their ultimate goal is what we’ve always known: They want abortion to be out of reach for everybody, everywhere, and under every circumstance.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Republicans are trying to close even more abortion clinics</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There are now <a href="https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/6e360741bfd84db79d5db774a1147815">37 fewer brick-and-mortar abortion clinics</a> in the US than there were in March 2022, before the end of <em>Roe</em>. Many of the closures have been in states that have passed laws that ban abortions in all but narrow circumstances.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That has resulted in women across large tracts of the southern US and Midwest now having to travel much further to go to an abortion clinic in person. That has limited the options available to people who can’t just rely on medication abortion prescribed via telehealth or who sought other forms of reproductive care at these facilities.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/06/ClinicClosures_NicoleNarea_Vox_73b118.gif?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Clinic closures have made it harder to access reproductive care" title="Clinic closures have made it harder to access reproductive care" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">The GOP spending bill would bring on the closure of additional clinics by defunding Planned Parenthood, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-27/supreme-court-rules-on-south-carolina-s-abortion-rule/105466862">single largest abortion provider</a> in the US, and other abortion clinics for at least 10 years. That would be disastrous not only for abortion access, but also for access to non-abortion reproductive care for low-income people. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The organization estimates that <a href="https://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/pressroom/the-gop-budget-plan-is-a-backdoor-abortion-ban">almost 200 of their clinics</a> could close as a result of the legislation, affecting 1.1 million patients, the vast majority of whom live in states where abortion is legal. That includes its two clinics in Alaska, the only remaining abortion providers in the state, said Laurel Sakai, Planned Parenthood’s national director of public policy and government affairs.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Since 1977, the Hyde Amendment has banned the use of federal funds for abortion, with some narrow exceptions for when the life of the pregnant person is endangered or when pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. But Planned Parenthood, as a provider of general reproductive services, receives reimbursements from Medicaid, as well as federal grants through the Title X program, which funds affordable family planning and related preventative care for low-income families.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">If Republicans were to cut off those funds, as proposed in the draft Senate bill, “there just simply aren&#8217;t enough other providers to be able to take on the care that Planned Parenthood gives,” Sakai said.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The reproductive rights think tank <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/news-release/2025/federally-qualified-health-centers-could-not-readily-replace-planned-parenthood">Guttmacher Institute found</a> that federally qualified health centers — often pointed to as an alternative to Planned Parenthood by proponents of measures to defund the organization —&nbsp;would have to increase their capacity to administer contraceptive care by 56 percent to fill the gap.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Planned Parenthood closures could affect not just the availability of in-person abortions, but also medication abortion.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“A lot of the doctors who provide medication abortion care do so through Planned Parenthood and other brick-and-mortar clinics,” O&#8217;Connor said. “We certainly have a lot of providers who are doing telehealth now, but there&#8217;s still a good number of providers who provide medication abortion at brick-and-mortar clinics.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The provision to defund Planned Parenthood, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates would <a href="https://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/pressroom/breaking-congressional-budget-office-estimates-that-defunding-planned-parenthood-will-cost-taxpayers-300m">raise the deficit by about $300 million,</a> faced procedural hurdles.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Because Republicans are trying to pass their bill via a process known as budget reconciliation, there are certain rules about what kind of provisions can be included. That includes a requirement that a provision included in a reconciliation package must have a “<a href="https://www.vox.com/22242476/senate-filibuster-budget-reconciliation-process">more than incidental</a>” impact on the budget. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough <a href="https://x.com/PeterSullivan4/status/1939785374735184255">reportedly determined</a> Monday that the Planned Parenthood provision qualifies. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That clears the way for Congress to defund the organization, along with last week’s Supreme Court ruling allowing states to do the same. On Thursday, the justices ruled that Planned Parenthood and one of its patients could not challenge <a href="https://www.vox.com/scotus/417844/supreme-court-medicaid-abortion-medina-planned-parenthood-south-carolina">South Carolina’s efforts to deny Medicaid funds</a> to the organization.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Coverage for abortion could also shrink or become more expensive</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In its current form, the Republican spending bill would not only cause abortion clinics to close. It would also affect insurance coverage for abortion and reproductive care.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">For one, <a href="https://www.vox.com/health/417639/trump-medicaid-health-insurance-big-beautiful-bill">10.3 million fewer Americans</a> are projected to be enrolled in Medicaid by 2034 if the bill passes. That may make it prohibitively expensive for them to access reproductive care other than abortion care, which is not covered under Medicaid.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The bill also excludes Affordable Care Act marketplace plans that offer abortion coverage from cost-sharing reductions, which decrease out-of-pocket costs for lower-income individuals. That won’t affect ACA marketplace plans in the 25 states that currently prohibit those plans from offering abortion coverage. But elsewhere, it will incentivize insurers administering ACA plans to either drop coverage for abortion or, in states where they are legally required to offer such coverage, increase premiums. </p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/06/010mY-how-trump-s-big-beautiful-bill-would-further-degrade-access-to-abortion-care.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Chart showing how Trump’s big, beautiful bill would further erode abortion access" title="Chart showing how Trump’s big, beautiful bill would further erode abortion access" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s not clear exactly how much premiums could increase in those states, which include California and New York, or whether insurers may find ways to make up for the loss of cost-sharing reductions.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But O’Connor said that reproductive rights activists anticipate that the provision is just an “opening salvo in a continuing fight that would ultimately pit those states that require coverage against the federal government and put insurers in an impossible position.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“What we assume is that this is just the first of many tactics that this Congress and this administration might take to make it more difficult for insurers to cover abortion,” she added.</p>

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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Is political violence on the rise in America?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/417351/minnesota-assassination-political-violence-trump-shooting" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=417351</id>
			<updated>2025-09-11T13:46:05-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-06-23T07:00:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Criminal Justice" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Gun Violence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Political Violence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[A series of high-profile incidents of political violence — targeting members of both major political parties — have grabbed the nation’s attention. Earlier this month, a gunman shot two Minnesota Democratic lawmakers in their homes. State Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed, and state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife were injured. In April, [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="makeshift memorial for state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark." data-caption="A makeshift memorial for Minnesota state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark. They were killed in their home on June 14, 2025. | Steven Garcia/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Steven Garcia/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/06/gettyimages-2219715248.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	A makeshift memorial for Minnesota state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark. They were killed in their home on June 14, 2025. | Steven Garcia/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">A series of high-profile incidents of political violence — targeting members of both major political parties — have grabbed the nation’s attention.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Earlier this month, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdeden6r9ddo">a gunman shot two Minnesota Democratic lawmakers</a> in their homes. State Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed, and state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife were injured.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In April, a man who allegedly “harbored hatred” for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/06/15/shapiro-passover-arson-attack/">set fire to the Democrat’s home</a> while he and his family were sleeping inside.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">President Donald Trump faced <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Attempted_assassinations_of_Donald_Trump,_2024">two assassination attempts</a> during his 2024 campaign. A <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/former-coast-guard-lieutenant-arrested-charged-threats-kill/story?id=122912015">former Coast Guard officer who identified with Antifa</a>, a far-left antifascist militant movement, was also arrested earlier this month for issuing violent death threats against Trump.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In October 2022, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband was <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/29/23430340/nancy-pelosi-paul-pelosi-political-violence-republican-attacks">attacked by an assailant who broke into their home</a> looking for her.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">And on January 6, 2021, rioters descended on the US Capitol to stop the certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory, threatening to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/rioters-chant-hang-mike-pence-on-jan-6-2021/2022/06/16/3cc093f1-0eb7-427d-8073-b5874ca27e80_video.html">hang then-Vice President Mike Pence</a> for allowing it to move forward.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It might feel like, based on the severity and frequency of these headline incidents, American political violence is surging. Members of Congress appear to think so: Lawmakers from both parties are now asking for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/us/politics/congress-security-after-minnesota.html">more funding to enhance security</a> and investigate and prosecute more threats made against them.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But while there are signs in the data that indicate political violence is indeed on the rise, depending on how you define it, it’s challenging to determine exactly by how much.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“It&#8217;s more anecdotal than anything else,” said Katherine Keneally, director of threat analysis and prevention at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue. “There’s some data to back up that the tensions are increasing and creating a more volatile environment, but to say it&#8217;s increased by X amount since 2023 is a little trickier.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">A volatile political environment and changes in social media policies that have caused misinformation to spread more quickly appear to be what’s driving the increase, at least in part. But understanding the root causes requires ascertaining the scale of the problem in a way that researchers have struggled to capture comprehensively.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Is political violence actually rising significantly?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There are all sorts of difficulties associated with measuring political violence.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">First, there’s the definitional dilemma of what incidents to include when counting acts of political violence. For instance, some might count arrests for disrupted plots; others might not.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Then, there is the challenge of actually gathering the data. Some sources may overly rely on media reports in an era when local news is under-resourced and might not reliably record every incident. And in the US, individuals unaffiliated with armed groups have become the primary perpetrators of political violence. That makes political violence even harder to track because perpetrators are often interacting in fragmented, low-transparency spaces online, from private chats to forums, rather than congregating in a single organized group.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Despite the difficulties with measurement, some sources —&nbsp;particularly those looking at specific forms of political violence — suggest that overall levels of political violence have increased in recent years.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">US Capitol Police have been recording concerning statements and <a href="https://www.uscp.gov/media-center/press-releases/uscp-threat-assessment-cases-2024">direct threats made against members of Congress</a>, their families, and their staff since 2017, seeing significant spikes after the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/06/LaBZI-threats-against-members-of-congress-are-on-the-rise.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="threats against members of Congress are on the rise" title="threats against members of Congress are on the rise" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">Researchers at Princeton University’s Bridging Divides Initiative also recorded a <a href="https://bridgingdivides.princeton.edu/updates/2025/threats-and-harassment-dataset-april-2025-update">similar spike in threats to local officials</a> in 2024.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2025 so far, they identified more than <a href="https://bridgingdivides.princeton.edu/threats-and-harassment-dataset-april-2025-update">170 total incidents</a> across nearly 40 states, with national issues such as LGBTQ+ rights and the war in Gaza being major bipartisan drivers. About a quarter of them involved hate speech. And in a sign of how political discourse has devolved, about 20 of them involved local officials threatening or harassing each other.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/06/1lUfI-local-officials-are-facing-heightened-risk-1.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="local officials are facing heightened risk" title="local officials are facing heightened risk" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p class="has-text-align-none">However, researchers acknowledge that they are only scratching the surface and that a broader analysis of the threat environment must begin well before anyone reaches the point of directly threatening to harm someone or actually harming them.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“The data only looks at the point at which people successfully conduct acts of violence,” said Jon Lewis, a research fellow at George Washington University’s Program on Extremism. “I think we need to start far earlier in the process and far more holistically to really capture the root causes of this issue, which is rhetoric.”</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Why is political violence on the rise?</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">American political violence looks different now than it did during major periods of political upheaval in the past.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In the 1970s, it was driven predominantly by far-left, anti-war groups such as the Weather Underground, which were primarily engaged in the destruction of property. But the nature of political violence, as well as its perpetrators, has changed in the decades since.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I think the modern iteration of mainstream right-wing political violence is targeting individuals, mass violence, targeted assassinations, which I think takes on a very different tenor than the destruction of property,” Lewis said.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There are several reasons for this shift, with the proliferation of conspiracy theories and hate speech online being a major one.</p>

<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p>“We&#8217;re in a very pretty difficult position in the country right now.”</p><cite>Katherine Keneally, director of threat analysis and prevention at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue</cite></blockquote></figure>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Content moderation on mainstream social media sites was never a complete cure for that, but <a href="https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-spread-of-covid-19-conspiracy-theories-on-social-media-and-the-effect-of-content-moderation/?utm_">studies</a> have <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/deplatforming-parler-bans-qanon/?utm_">suggested</a> that it was a mitigating factor. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-07/elon-musk-cuts-more-twitter-staff-overseeing-content-moderation">Twitter</a> (now X), <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/07/meta-drops-fact-checking-and-loosens-its-content-moderation-rules/?utm_">Meta</a>, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/news/682784/youtube-loosens-moderation-policies-videos-public-interest?utm_">YouTube, </a>and others have scaled back content moderation staff or rolled back policies designed to root out misinformation that might motivate political violence. In the months after Elon Musk bought X and implemented those policies, <a href="https://vcresearch.berkeley.edu/news/study-finds-persistent-spike-hate-speech-x">hate speech on the platform rose</a> by 50 percent, according to a study by researchers at the University of California Berkeley, UCLA, and the University of Southern California.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“I think that we really need to recognize the fact that there is a significant subset of people, especially online, especially on these social media platforms, that do not share our common understanding of reality,” Lewis said. “If you spend your weekend on Twitter, which I would not recommend doing, you would genuinely say that the suspect [in the Minnesota shootings] shot these Democratic politicians because they went against the leftist, Marxist party line.”</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In truth, federal prosecutors have declined to state a specific motive. But if anything, the evidence suggests he identified with the far-right rather than the far-left: His friends <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/what-motivated-minnesota-lawmaker-shooting-suspect-unclear-so-his-politics">described him to Fox News</a> as a Trump supporter, his social media posts embraced <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/06/17/vance-boelter-minnesota-shooting-christianity/">extreme anti-abortion views</a>, and he had a hit list of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/06/16/nx-s1-5433748/minnesota-shooting-suspect-vance-boelter-arrested-melissa-hortman-john-hoffman">45 elected Democrats</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">There’s also, according to researchers, a cultural shift —&nbsp;and not a healthy one.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">People also now seem more willing to see political violence as a solution to the policies and beliefs they disagree with, regardless of party affiliation, Keneally said.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">During the 2024 presidential election, polling <a href="https://d3qi0qp55mx5f5.cloudfront.net/cpost/i/docs/June_2024_CPOST_Survey_Report.pdf?mtime=1720925000">from NORC and the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats</a> found 7 percent of Americans agreed that the &#8220;use of force is justified&#8221; to help Trump claim the presidency; 10 percent said it was justified to prevent him from doing so.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Now that Trump is president again, many communities feel under threat from his policies, which may make them more accepting of political violence. A <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rising-acceptance-of-political-violence-promises-nothing-good-for-the-u-s/">March Scientific American survey</a> of predominantly Democratic voters at two major protests found that about a third said political violence may be necessary to “save” America. It’s worth noting that these respondents aren’t representative of Democrats overall, but it shows that acceptance of political violence isn’t just a right-wing phenomenon.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">“We&#8217;re in a very pretty difficult position in the country right now,” Keneally said. “I think this combination of this changing political environment, social media, and people feeling like they don&#8217;t have any other solution is making it at least feel like it&#8217;s worse.”</p>
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			<author>
				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Trump is deporting way fewer people than Obama did. Why?]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/416901/trump-mass-deportation-obama-border-raids-ice" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/?p=416901</id>
			<updated>2025-06-17T20:51:55-04:00</updated>
			<published>2025-06-17T07:00:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Donald Trump" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Immigration" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Trump Administration" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[President Donald Trump promised his supporters “the largest deportation program in American history” — but he’s nowhere close.&#160; That distinction belongs to an early 20th-century program that likely saw 2 million people deported. When looking at more recent times, it’s President Barack Obama — once dubbed by immigrant advocates “the deporter in chief” — who [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="A crowd of people hold red and blue signs that say “Stop deportations, defend immigrants.”" data-caption="Protesters march through downtown Chicago on June 12, 2025, during the second day of demonstrations against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids and President Donald Trump’s immigration policies.﻿ | Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2025/06/gettyimages-2219197994.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Protesters march through downtown Chicago on June 12, 2025, during the second day of demonstrations against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids and President Donald Trump’s immigration policies.﻿ | Jacek Boczarski/Anadolu via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p class="has-text-align-none">President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/trump-threatens-mass-deportations-at-rally-in-new-york-city/video-70617302">promised his supporters</a> “the largest deportation program in American history” — but he’s nowhere close.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">That distinction belongs to an early <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/380582/mass-deportations-trump-history-alien-enemies">20th-century program</a> that likely saw 2 million people deported. When looking at more recent times, it’s President Barack Obama — once dubbed by immigrant advocates “the deporter in chief” — who holds the 21st-century deportation record. His administration kicked out <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2014/10/02/u-s-deportations-of-immigrants-reach-record-high-in-2013/">438,421</a> people in 2013. No president since has come close to equaling that record, including Trump during his first term.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2015/09/08/437579834/mass-deportation-may-sound-unlikely-but-its-happened-before">political atmosphere</a> that made the mass deportations of the 1900s possible is long gone. Similarly, Trump is likely to find it all but impossible to approach his goal of deporting “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/immigration-detention-trump-costs-5c6c59afdb8fa79a7ca74848bd3b7cc8">millions and millions</a>” by borrowing from Obama’s playbook.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In fact, actions taken by Obama are part of why Trump’s ambitions have been stymied. If Trump truly wants to set a new record, he’ll need to more than double the current pace of deportations. And that will take a strategy that radically departs from those that have come before.&nbsp;</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>How Obama deported so many people</strong></h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Obama’s immigration enforcement strategy was two-pronged: increasing penalties for unauthorized crossings at the southern border and deputizing local law enforcement to target immigrants with criminal records inside the US. The former increased the number of people who faced official removal proceedings and deterred repeat border crossers. And the latter allowed ICE to have its ear to the ground in cities throughout the country.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Before Obama, unauthorized border crossers were typically allowed to voluntarily return to Mexico, without undergoing an official process or being subjected to any penalties. That meant that many attempted to recross the border, knowing that they would not face repercussions for doing so.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The Obama administration started subjecting a greater proportion of them to formal deportation proceedings, utilizing an expanded federal immigration enforcement workforce that had <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/obama-record-deportations-deporter-chief-or-not">grown from 12,700 in 2003 to 22,000 in 2008</a> with an influx of congressional funding. That drove up the deportation numbers and also barred unauthorized crossers from reentering the US for another 10 years. If they tried to reenter anyway, they could be permanently barred.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Many proved unwilling to take that risk, with the share of unauthorized crossers making multiple attempts to cross the border <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/obama-record-deportations-deporter-chief-or-not">coming down sharply</a>, from 29 percent in fiscal year 2007 to 14 percent in fiscal year 2014.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Obama also utilized tools including agreements with local law enforcement agencies that allowed them to conduct immigration enforcement and a program known as “Secure Communities” to deport undocumented immigrants inside the US, prioritizing those with criminal records.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">By the time Obama took office in 2009, about <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/obama-record-deportations-deporter-chief-or-not">70 of these 287(g) agreements</a> had been signed.  They allowed local law enforcement to receive training from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement and issue immigration detainers, effectively deputizing them. </p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Through Secure Communities, local law enforcement shared fingerprints of people booked into local jails with federal immigration authorities, which would determine whether they were deportable. ICE could then ask local law enforcement to hold that person for up to 48 hours; agents would pick them up and transfer them to immigration detention.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Initially effective at increasing deportations,  the Secure Communities program was short-lived. It faced blowback from primarily liberal jurisdictions, driving a revival of the movement to offer sanctuary to undocumented immigrants in the 2010s.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The concern among progressives was that it would reduce trust in law enforcement among immigrant communities and make everyone less safe because fewer people would report crimes. It also led to the deportation of people who had only committed minor offenses or had no criminal convictions.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">In 2014, Obama rescinded the program in response. He replaced it with another program that focused only on deporting immigrants who had committed serious offenses. As a result, the number of deportations fell to <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/08/31/u-s-immigrant-deportations-declined-in-2014-but-remain-near-record-high/">about 414,000</a> that year and never resurged to their 2013 peak.</p>

<h2 class="wp-block-heading has-text-align-none"><strong>Trump may struggle to replicate Obama’s deportation strategy</strong>&nbsp;</h2>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump might struggle to ramp up deportations along the border, as Obama did, simply because significantly fewer people are coming. In March, border apprehensions fell to <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/cbp-releases-march-2025-monthly-update">7,181</a>, a 95 percent decrease from March 2024.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">Trump would also likely face great opposition to a revived Secure Communities program.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">The opposition in liberal enclaves — where many undocumented immigrants reside — to cooperating with federal immigration authorities has only hardened since the Obama era. In response, Trump’s border czar Tom Homan has gone as far as <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/06/12/walz-hochul-pritzker-sanctuary-state-congressional-hearing">threatening Democratic officials with arrest</a> for shielding immigrants from deportation.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">But for now, Democrats are holding their ground.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">&#8220;I will stand in the way of Tom Homan going after people who don&#8217;t deserve to be frightened in their communities,&#8221; Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker <a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/06/12/walz-hochul-pritzker-sanctuary-state-congressional-hearing">said</a> in a congressional hearing Thursday, in comments emblematic of the liberal position.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">With these avenues cut off, Trump has attempted other tactics. He’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/416496/trump-immigration-worksite-raids-los-angeles-protests">launched workplace immigration raids</a> across California, spurring mass protests in Los Angeles. He’s mobilized federal resources from the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/06/06/nx-s1-5425421/dhs-national-guard-immigration-enforcement">National Guard</a> to the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/05/13/nx-s1-5396461/courts-irs-tax-undocumented-immigrants">IRS</a> to identify and arrest undocumented immigrants. He’s urged half a million immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/12/trump-immigrants-venezeula-cuba-dhs.html">self-deport</a>.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">None of that has been enough to match Obama’s pace of deportations so far, something that has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/05/us/politics/trump-immigration-deportations-arrests.html">reportedly frustrated Trump</a>. However, deportations did increase to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-administration-ramped-deportations-still-far-wants-rcna209262">17,200</a> in April, surpassing the number of deportations during the same period last year under the Biden administration.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">It’s not clear whether Trump can maintain that momentum. For one, he <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/06/12/trump-immigration-migrant-farmers-hotel-workers-deported/84166061007/">suggested</a> in a recent post on Truth Social that he’s now torn about deporting farmworkers and hotel workers after speaking with industry leaders who said that his policies were “taking very good, long time workers away from them, with those jobs being almost impossible to replace.” In the same post, he vowed that “changes are coming,” without elaborating on what they might look like.&nbsp;</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none">At the same time, however, Trump is pushing for a spending bill now under consideration in the US Senate. It provides <a href="https://www.epi.org/blog/house-republican-budget-bill-gives-trump-185-billion-to-carry-out-his-mass-deportation-agenda-while-doing-nothing-for-workers-immigration-enforcement-would-have-80-times-more-funding-than-la/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">$155 billion</a> in new immigration enforcement funding — more than five times the amount of current funding. While even some Republicans say that <a href="https://migrantinsider.com/p/senate-to-halve-immigration-enforcement" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">increase is too large</a>, he may soon have considerably greater resources to carry out his vision for mass deportations if the bill passes.</p>

<p class="has-text-align-none"></p>
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