Samantha Montano | Vox

Here’s when Trump’s response to Hurricane Harvey will really matter

2017-08-28T10:56:33-04:00

A car lies submerged after Hurricane Harvey hit Corpus Christi, Texas on August 26. | MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images

Hurricane Harvey is pummeling Texas with one of the worst storms in recent American history this weekend, threatening businesses, homes, and lives with catastrophic flooding and storm surge. For many Americans, one question looms: How will President Trump, whose administration has been engulfed in chaos since Day One, manage it?

I study emergency management, and I’ve begun to assess the same question, placing this White House in a long history of presidential response to disasters.

Major natural disasters often last just moments or days, but the recovery can take years. The test of leadership is not measured in tweets, but in the tedium of making government resources work on behalf of people suffering.

Despite the limited operational role of the president, a disaster response is their responsibility in the eyes of the public, and they typically use it to demonstrate leadership, compassion, and clear communication.

On Friday night, when a reporter asked him for a message for Texas, he replied, “Good luck to everybody.” Which certainly does not inspire much confidence in his ability to take this seriously.

But whatever Trump says or does with regard to the hurricane while it’s still unfolding matters far less than what he says or does in the coming weeks. It’s the recovery where his leadership will matter most.

It’ll be tempting to gauge Trump by his social media impact. But the real test is in his work over the long haul. Here are five things to watch for to see how well he’s responding as a president.

1) Giving Texas the initial resources it will need

Hurricane Harvey is not a surprising disaster. A Category 4 storm hitting the Texas coast is a well-considered scenario. Every indication suggests state and local resources will be overwhelmed and this will be a major disaster requiring extensive federal resources.

On Friday night, Trump signed the Presidential Disaster Declaration, per the request of Texas Governor Greg Abbott, opening up access to federal resources. Over the next few days we should expect to see regular updates from the White House, in coordination with FEMA, about the status of response efforts including evacuations, sheltering, search and rescue, and significant damages.

Trump has completed the most important job he has for right now, signing the Texas declaration. During a disaster, at the request of the governor and recommendation from FEMA, the president can declare a disaster under the Stafford Act. Doing so opens up federal resources and aid to assist state and local governments.

Traditionally the president uses their platform to emphasize important lifesaving information and direct attention towards state and local officials. Then we’d expect to see a visit from the president to the coast, regular updates from federal agencies about the status of recovery, and discussion of how the federal government will financially contribute to recovery efforts.

2) Who’s in charge of FEMA

The person who is arguably more important at a federal level during the response to a disaster is the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) administrator. Currently, unlike several other federal agencies, FEMA is staffed and has a qualified administrator, Brock Long. Long was appointed by Trump in April and confirmed in June. He has an extensive background in emergency management and, because he comes from Alabama, experience with hurricanes. The general consensus is the Long is a respectable choice.

The importance of appointing an individual with actual emergency management was made clear during Katrina when FEMA was led by Michael Brown, who had no emergency management experience. Since 2005, presidents, including Trump, have made sure that the FEMA administrator is qualified. FEMA in 2017 is very different from FEMA in 2005, thanks in large part to efforts taken during the Obama administration.

Judging from the public communication put out by FEMA so far it seems that they are operating in a way that is similar to how they would have operated during a response under Obama.

3) Listening to advisors

Despite the limited operational role of the president, a disaster response easily becomes their responsibility, and they typically use their role to demonstrate leadership, compassion, and clear communication. There is certainly something to be said to turn on your TV and see the president assuring us that the full resources of the United States government are addressing the disaster.

Bush was largely praised for his leadership in the days immediately following 9/11. A few years later his leadership came under fire with the disastrous response to Hurricane Katrina and the New Orleans levee failure. Both disasters ended with major policy changes that reshaped emergency management across the country.

In responding to the many disasters during his tenure — such as Ebola, the BP oil disaster, and Superstorm Sandy — Obama committed to listening to his advisors and providing them with the resources they needed to respond. Response and recovery rarely, if ever, go perfectly. But the Obama administration certainly made an effort to analyze mistakes and do better next time. Nonetheless there were criticisms made related to optics — for instance when he went on vacation during the 2016 Louisiana floods.

4) Most emergency management is independent from the president

Despite concerns about the federal government it is worth remembering that the majority of disaster response occurs at the state and local levels. Most of the emergency management system operates independently from the president and even the federal government during response.

They are the ones closest to the disaster, they have the most information about the disaster, and the understand the needs of the community. Survivors are rarely helpless during disasters. They self-organize, form groups, and improvise throughout the response and recovery to address their needs.

Some actions taken by Trump today are unusual compared to previous presidents. On Friday he tweeted a video of his tour of FEMA headquarters earlier this month that said, “The U.S.A is the most resilient nation on earth, because we plan ahead. Preparedness is an investment in our future!” (That certainly contradicts his policy actions and budget proposals since taking office.) And then there was the “good luck” tweet on Friday.

5) Preparing for the next disaster

The majority of the work of emergency management happens long before a disaster happens and in the years after a disaster occurs. This is where the president can provide have influence. The president shapes the national vision for emergency management, assures funding for emergency management, and is responsible for appointing competent officials.

After a disaster occurs, the actions of the president on these issues are what come under public scrutiny and even congressional investigations. President Obama and his FEMA administrator Craig Fugate were well-aware of this and undertook many efforts to better prepare the country for disaster.

Unfortunately for Texas, it is too late for mitigation and preparedness efforts that must happen well in advance of a disaster. There is still time, however, for the administration to undertake efforts to increase our national preparedness and assist communities in implementing mitigation efforts so that the next hurricane response is more effective and efficient.

In Texas, the administration will have more influence over the recovery process. Disaster recovery is notoriously challenging even for administrations that are well organized, staffed, and excel at communicating. While FEMA is the agency most central to emergency management, a plethora of federal agencies have roles and responsibilities. It would inspire confidence in the ability of the federal government to assist in recovery efforts if we saw good communication, organization, vision, and filled positions across the federal government. That’s what we need from Trump.

The actions of the President can most definitely negatively influence emergency management. This lesson was painfully learned during Hurricane Katrina and the New Orleans levee failure. As a general rule, it’s not good to go into any crisis, including a major hurricane with a federal government in turmoil.

Dr. Samantha Montano has a doctoral degree in emergency management. She blogs at www.disaster-ology.com and can be reached on twitter @SamLMontano

If you would like to donate to the recovery, she recommends Foundation Beyond Belief and All Hands .

The Louisiana floods are devastating, and climate change will bring more like them. We’re not ready.

2016-08-19T17:01:14-04:00

Tracy Thornton walks to his house through a flooded neighborhood August 15, 2016 in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. | BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images)

On August 12, meteorologists began sounding the alarm that a low-pressure weather system would deliver about 24 inches of water to communities on the Louisiana coast. Had it been a hurricane, more advance warning would have been possible to give people more time to evacuate. But this storm was harder to predict — and so it took the region largely by surprise.

The extensive flooding that ensued has left 13 dead and 60,000 homes damaged across 20 parishes in the state. Tens of thousands of people were stranded as the water rose, requiring the National Guard, Coast Guard, local first responders, and groups of citizens including the “Cajun Navy” to do water rescues over the weekend. More than 10,000 people were moved to shelters.

Though smaller than the devastation wrought by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, this latest flood reminds us of what a changing climate has in store for us: Places that have flooded before will flood again, and places that haven’t in the past will do so for the first time.

These disasters are the new normal — several other states are currently recovering from disasters of their own. What has become painfully clear is that the “emergency management system” in the United States does not have the capacity to address all the needs. The systems we have in place to mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from these events do not have the ability to deal with so many disasters at once. We can do better.

The strain on the US emergency management system

In the past year, a number of flood events have ravaged communities all over the United States: South Carolina, West Virginia, Maryland, Texas, Louisiana, Texas again, and now Louisiana again.

The size of these disasters ranged from impacting a few towns to multiple counties — from hundreds of homes damaged to hundreds of thousands. Recovery operations are ongoing in Louisiana, Texas, West Virginia, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, and others. In addition, Texas and Oklahoma continue to recover from tornadoes, and California and other parts of the West have ongoing wildfires.

We have significant experience and knowhow to respond to these events. In the 1950s the United States began to establish what we know as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Along with FEMA there are state-, county-, and city-level emergency management agencies.

Other federal agencies and local governments oversee the rebuilding of roads, bridges, schools, and hospitals, along with other community-level infrastructure. Corporations like Walmart and Home Depot, as well as local businesses, restock so the community can buy what they need to recover. Utility companies bring workers in from out of state to get electricity and cell towers back up and running. Nonprofits ranging from nationwide disaster-specific organizations, such as Rebuilding Together, to small, local nonprofits with no disaster mission deploy resources toward the community recovery process.

The culmination of these groups and their programs is what makes up the “emergency management system.” It is no small task to coordinate everyone involved, especially when they are competing for resources (personnel, volunteers, funds), limited media attention, and community buy-in. Moreover, local communities often find they do not have recovery plans in place, nor do they have the experience to manage recovery.

Unfortunately, these constraints mean the emergency management system does not have the capacity (in terms of resources, knowledge, and coordination) to address all the needs that communities face after a disaster. In the best of circumstances recovery is challenging, but in a year with so many disasters it starts to become unmanageable. Given what climate change is bringing, it is difficult to imagine how this system will ever be able to handle more.

The case of Louisiana

We are about to see the consequences of this lack of capacity unfold in Louisiana.

As the flooding continued throughout the weekend, government agencies, disaster nonprofits, and individuals from all across the country moved into the impacted areas. Local community organizations have been working nonstop to meet the vast and growing needs of the community. Individuals have organized their own search, and rescue missions and donations are pouring in from New Orleans and beyond.

It’s worth waiting to see how the response goes before calling it a success or a failure. Nut tensions have been running high online as individuals search for missing family members, seek information on which neighborhoods are flooded, and monitor ongoing evacuation notices.

It is no easy task to coordinate all of the groups involved in such a large-scale response. Regardless, the response is just a fraction of what the emergency management system does. It is the recovery, which is already underway, that will last for years and highlight many of the inadequacies of the system.

Why recovering from disaster can be as bad as the disaster itself

Though response is a trying experience, it is the recovery that is especially arduous and requires the dedication of resources and personnel to be sustained over a long period of time. Survivors often call recovery “the second disaster” because of how difficult it is.

Many people in Louisiana are returning home to find their belongings ruined by floodwater. Little will be salvageable, especially when exposed to the humidity. Mold will grow quickly.

Most people do not have the resources to pay out of pocket for their own recovery. A recent survey found that 63 percent of Americans cannot afford a $500 emergency. They will turn to friends and family for assistance, or for a place to stay while they make repairs.

The generosity of friends and family, though helpful, will likely be insufficient. In the affected communities, entire families live on the same street and likely have all been impacted. Many will not have the resources to help each other to a full recovery.

Few people have flood insurance (regular homeowners insurance does not cover flooding). Yet even for those who do, as an episode of PBS’s Frontline recently explained, receiving payouts for flood insurance is not an easily or quickly navigated process.

FEMA will provide some assistance in many of the affected parishes. Here, too, individuals will be forced through a complex process that many homeowners have described as a full-time job. At most, residents will receive around $30,000 – barely, enough to fully rebuild and cover the expenses incurred in the meantime (for example, the cost of evacuation and taking time off work).

At this point, many homeowners turn to recovery nonprofits. The United States has many national recovery nonprofits such as St. Bernard Project, All Hands, and Rebuilding Together. Many rebuilding groups, like St. Bernard Project, got their start after Katrina. Those that are still working on recovery in New Orleans (11 years later this month) will likely direct aid toward Baton Rouge and surrounding communities. The combination of efforts from these groups will play out over the next several years, largely in the form of donations and volunteers.

We need to avoid a perpetual state of response and recovery

Because so many communities are still recovering from past disasters, the entire system is taxed, and disaster recovery groups, in particular, need help. Many have been talking of donor and volunteer fatigue throughout the summer.

During and immediately after disasters there is an influx of donations and volunteers to help with tasks such as running shelters, delivering aid, conducting search and rescue efforts, and cleaning out houses. That help is valuable, but so are the volunteers that come months and years later. In fact, they are especially needed after the immediate response is over and national news coverage stops. These volunteers bring a renewed hope and motivation to the people living and working in communities experiencing recovery.

For most disasters, especially smaller ones, the system has been functional. The realization that the system is also easily taxed when a series of smaller disasters occur is cause for serious concern.

What those changes are have not been fully thought of or agreed upon, nor is it clear how such changes would ever be implemented.

At this rate, communities across the country will be in a perpetual state of response and recovery. We need to find way to lessen the impact of these types of disasters and better prepare. Local governments need to lead the conversation on community-wide mitigation projects like flood control systems and zoning laws. Individuals and households need to buy hazard insurance. Communities must create disaster plans in advance and tell the local community about their hazard risks and what to do about them.

We need to find ways to fund and maintain public interest for mitigation and preparedness to be successful. This all needs to happen while simultaneously creating a system that allows communities to recover quickly and fully.

Samantha Montano is a doctoral student in emergency management at the Center for Emergency Management Education & Research at North Dakota State University. She blogs at Disasterology. If you would like to donate to the recovery, she recommends Foundation Beyond Belief and Team Rubicon.