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	<title type="text">Steven Sinofsky | Vox</title>
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	<updated>2019-03-06T11:25:43+00:00</updated>

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				<name>Steven Sinofsky</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[What Apple showed at WWDC expands computing in new ways]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2017/6/12/15785624/apple-wwdc-2017-developers-conference-ios-11-imac-ipad-pro-homepod-high-sierra" />
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			<updated>2017-06-12T17:32:29-04:00</updated>
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							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[A version of this essay was originally published on Medium. Many of us have been using the dev builds of iOS 11 and MacOS High Sierra this week. I wanted to share some thoughts on what I think are some of the important advances. I have attended WWDC for many years, sometimes as a partner [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="An Apple employee helps a member of the media try on an HTC Vive while testing the virtual reality capabilities of the new iMac, during Apple&#039;s Worldwide Developers Conference in San Jose, California on June 5, 2017. | Josh Edelson / AFP / Getty" data-portal-copyright="Josh Edelson / AFP / Getty" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8674069/Sinofsky_WWDC.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	An Apple employee helps a member of the media try on an HTC Vive while testing the virtual reality capabilities of the new iMac, during Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference in San Jose, California on June 5, 2017. | Josh Edelson / AFP / Getty	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>A version of this essay was originally published on </em><a href="https://medium.learningbyshipping.com/wwdc-2017-some-thoughts-3ff3230cdd58"><em>Medium</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p>Many of us have been using the dev builds of iOS 11 and MacOS High Sierra this week. I wanted to share some thoughts on what I think are some of the important advances.</p>

<p>I have attended WWDC for many years, sometimes as a partner (working on Office), sometimes as a competitor (working on Windows), and sometimes just as an interested developer (grad school). There are always a range of emotions coming out of the event. In this era of massively global Apple, every event is galactic in scale, yet it is super important to keep in mind that this is still their developer conference.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>iOS is the healthiest developer ecosystem right now, we also know how quickly the landscape can change. That’s why how Apple evolves software that takes advantage of its market position is so critical.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>My view is that iOS is the healthiest developer ecosystem right now.&nbsp;For sure, a big part is because the most revenue is accruing directly to developers, but just as important is the reality that the most valued targets for advertising and commerce are also using Apple devices. Together, these create a vibrant and lively community of developers actively working on updates and new apps. An even more important reason for me is the unprecedented scale of customers and ability for Apple to deliver new software APIs to developers that will make it to hundreds of millions of devices in short order.</p>

<p>While the ecosystem might be the most robust right now, we also know how quickly the landscape can change. That is why the importance of how Apple evolves software that takes advantage of their market position is so critical. I believe this WWDC had some incredibly interesting developments in this regard.</p>

<p>I won&rsquo;t cover everything, of course, but I wanted to point out what I think are the most interesting innovations or opportunities for developers engaged in the platform. Think of this as the trip report I would bring back for the team, after using the software for a week.</p>

<p>Think of this as a conference report, not a review or coverage of the entire event &mdash; what rose to some level of strategic importance. Opinions are mine, and I of course have no insider or unannounced roadmap knowledge of Apple (or any other platform company mentioned).</p>

<p>The&nbsp;<em>tl;dr</em>&nbsp;version of this post would be:</p>
<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><strong>iOS 11:</strong> This is where there are significant advances in the kinds of apps that can be built for mobile devices. This comes from two areas. First, the changes to core user-interaction models for iOS bring what many believe are important features for “productivity” to the iPad (now iPad Pro). Second, new frameworks, but particularly for augmented reality, are moving well beyond incremental and addressing needs in building today’s apps. Both ARKit and Core ML are likely more interesting than I think many believe —democratizing two key aspects of computer science that will clearly differentiate platforms going forward. Privacy remains an extremely core theme to how the product is evolving and how Apple thinks about the way apps are implemented.</li><li><strong>macOS High Sierra: </strong>Apple probably surprised people with some of the “features” in High Sierra, but what should impress people more are the architecture and infrastructure advances. Apple has cleverly engineered work for iOS to “trickle down” to macOS, which picks up the APFS file system and video pipeline work. These are a big deal for iOS, but frankly an even bigger deal for macO,S where it is much more difficult to deliver these reliably, given the openness of the platform. There are a good share of advances in High Sierra that benefit developers as users (developers also includes creative professionals more broadly).</li><li><strong>Hardware Products:</strong> Delivering on “Pro” with the iPad Pro and iMac Pro is significant. The iMac answers the need for a high-end workstation, and does so with arguably the most powerful device available, yet in a sleek all-in-one form factor. The iPad Pro <em>finally</em> (almost?!) puts the iPad in a position to be a laptop for the masses, especially those who grew up only on phones. There’s a new holiday gift for everyone with the new home speaker HomePod, but in introducing this product, Apple can take this category (if it is one) in a different direction, like it did with home media players when Apple TV was introduced.</li></ul><h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>macOS High Sierra</strong></h2>
<p>From the first words of the macOS section, I was intrigued. I was intrigued not by the boldness, but by the expectation setting of what would follow &#8202;&mdash; &#8202;a focus on perfecting the platform. I was personally reminded the challenges of getting fans excited while also trying to achieve some level of excitement when unveiling a product release viewed as refinement.</p>

<p>Apple doesn&rsquo;t do anything by accident, but I do think they significantly undersold not just the results but their own execution capabilities in discussing High Sierra. Part of this comes from the always difficult task of articulating innovation in an OS to a non-technical or business audience when an OS can (and should) fade to the background and let apps do the work. Part of this comes from the reality that the innovations were, as Craig Federighi said, &ldquo;deep technologies for the future&rdquo;.</p>

<p><strong>Apple File System:</strong>&nbsp;AFPS was not the first thing to be discussed, but it is the first thing worth noting, simply because it puts the notion of &ldquo;perfecting&rdquo; in context. APFS is an entirely new file system enabling such features as clones, snapshots, encryption, 64-bit limits on file counts and sizes, crash protection, crazy performance for large file operations and more. It is really hard for me to overstate the incredible nature of delivering a file system.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>I’ve lived through all the Apple migrations and all the DOS/Windows migrations, and not only is this among the most feature-rich releases, it is actually running right now on my Mac (and iPhone) after an <em>in-place upgrade</em>.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>I&rsquo;ve lived through all the Apple migrations and all the DOS/Windows migrations, and not only is this among the most feature-rich releases, it is actually running right now on my Mac (and iPhone) after an&nbsp;<em>in-place upgrade</em>. I seriously sat there watching the install process thinking, &ldquo;This is going to take like a day to finish, and it will probably fail and roll back in the middle or something.&rdquo; After about 30 minutes, the whole thing was complete. The amount of amazing engineering that went into both this creation and deployment of APFS is mind-blowing. And that it was done on phones, watches and PCs is nothing short of spectacular, and except for maybe the transition from FAT to FAT32, I can&rsquo;t recall anything even close to this. There are a ton of features under the covers that will surface in use of Apple devices, but mostly it will just make everything better seamlessly.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8673569/Sinofsky1.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="An APFS volume" data-portal-copyright="" />
<p><strong>Safari:</strong> Most everyone in SV and most tech enthusiasts use Chrome on the Mac. There are some old memories of a slower, less compatible browser with &ldquo;fewer features&rdquo; (read, extensions) that keep that audience off Safari. I switched and ran into zero problems. The further refinement of features such as intelligent tracking protection and overall what was referred to as &ldquo;serene browsing&rdquo; are more worthwhile to me (and probably most people) than extensions in Chrome.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>Apple continues not pushing the browser as a platform, but pushing the browser as an application.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>There&rsquo;s some jealousy in Apple&rsquo;s ability to pull off anti-tracking measures, as &ldquo;Do Not Track&rdquo; was a huge failure for me when I was working on Windows and IE. Apple&rsquo;s anti-tracking is really about accountability &mdash; if you don&rsquo;t visit a site, then it is likely the site should not be tracking you. It is a first step. Apple continues not pushing the browser as a platform, but pushing the browser as an application. This becomes very interesting, because the innovation in the browser platform might be past peak for now, and thus the developers out there looking to have differentiated (versus required) web experiences is minimal (perhaps except for Google). When a platform is relatively static, it becomes more important to compete on the quality of an app experience than on the differentiated use of new and incremental platform features.</p>

<p><strong>Video pipeline:&nbsp;</strong>Improving the video pipeline with H.265, HEVC, is another one of those things that is really hard to demo and take note of today but over time, this is a critical innovation. For video in and out, hardware support is critical, and Apple has done a great job here. Expect other ecosystems to have variations in support across devices. The challenge, of course, is that this will become a bit of a standards battle between H.265 and Google&rsquo;s open, royalty-free VP9. We&rsquo;ve all seen this movie before. Because YouTube commands such a large amount of video usage, this will not get resolved simply or quickly, and one should expect some &ldquo;wedge&rdquo; applications or uses.</p>

<p><strong>Thunderbolt Dev Kit enclosure:</strong>&nbsp;In a world where devs that need (really need) discrete graphics for rendering or significantly driving external monitors, this is both a welcome and important advance. This is the kind of thing that brings both excitement and some frustration to the dev community. It is exciting because this solves a real problem with the Mac line, albeit with a really big dongle. It is potentially frustrating because it isn&rsquo;t clear (yet) just how broad and cheap the support for external graphics this will be&#8202; &mdash; how many graphics cards, how much futzing, etc. The eGPU space has seen lots of attention, and at the same time the forums are filled with tips and tricks to get things working. Generally, as much as there is demand from a community for this, the ability to drive heterogenous graphics cards or live-swap cards from one kernel has always been a bit of a stunt. And. of course. the implications of arbitrary drivers to core system security are significant.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8673577/Sinofsky_2.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Apple Thunderbolt External Graphics Development Kit “eGPU” | Apple" data-portal-copyright="Apple" />
<p><strong>Other OS features:</strong>&nbsp;There were a slew of features in the OS at the &ldquo;app layer,&rdquo; as well, many or most of which are shared with iOS. As we&rsquo;ve come to expect from a modern OS, there&rsquo;s yet another revamping of notifications and control center stuff. Frankly, this is driven quite a bit by synergy with iOS, but because of the different expressions, one mostly had a &ldquo;moved my cheese&rdquo; feeling on a laptop. This all falls clearly under the &ldquo;refined&rdquo; moniker. Historically, Apple has been so minimal at moving around OS things, much to the disappointment of fans; interestingly, things seem to be moving more each release these days.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8673593/Sinofsky_3.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="High Sierra macOS Photos editing levels and selective color | Steven Sinofsky" data-portal-copyright="Steven Sinofsky" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading">Mac Hardware</h2>
<p><strong>iMac Pro:</strong>&nbsp;The announcement of the iMac Pro is significant, and also shows the Apple approach as we&rsquo;ve come to expect. This is one beast of a PC &mdash; really a workstation &mdash;and for $5000 it should be (maxes out at 18 cores, 128GB, 4TB SSD, 10Gbs Ethernet, 4x Thunderbolt, 2 x 5K display capable, etc).</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>This is one beast of a PC — really a workstation —and for $5,000 it should be. But one would be hard-pressed to build a competitive device on Linux or Windows for significantly less.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>That said, one would be hard-pressed to build a competitive device on Linux or Windows for significantly less, though expect many apples-to-oranges comparisons (sorry for the pun) that allow for fans of each platform to claim price/performance superiority. When you consider the new file system, new graphics APIs, new video pipeline and more, this is likely going to be the most powerful workstation available that at the same time provides the &ldquo;out of box&rdquo; quality and reliability that one would expect from Apple. Oh, and it has an SD card slot, which honestly is nice for most hobbyists, but mostly puzzling.</p>

<p>Some might believe that by packaging the device in a &ldquo;sealed&rdquo; and/or all-in-one form factor, it will be perennially behind the curve. In practice, this market is served by the slow-to-change &ldquo;workstations&rdquo; from major vendors and by DiY gamers. The former are incredibly well-served by this PC, and the latter will continue to build their own, often challenged by compatibility and variations in driver/systems support.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8673597/Sinofsky_4.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Apple iMac Pro | Apple" data-portal-copyright="Apple" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading">iOS 11</h2>
<p>I&rsquo;ve been running iOS 11 all week on both phone and tablet. Of course, it is not ready at all for daily use (not unexpected), and you can&rsquo;t really see the benefits of the platform just yet, and many of the usage features aren&rsquo;t really there yet. That said, the key takeaway for me is that there are some significant &ldquo;market expanding&rdquo; elements of the release that are deeper than just adding more frameworks.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>While “glasses” AR platforms are busy trying to recreate a phone and phone-software platform that either fits in glasses or can be easily tethered, Apple already has a device and platform at massive scale.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>From a developer perspective, the capabilities in this release of iOS, combined with the broadening device ecosystem (Watch and HomePod), are furthering the gap between iOS and Android. This is introducing important choices for developers. I continue to believe that &ldquo;winners&rdquo; in categories will integrate and exploit native platforms, and viewing every advance through a cross-platform lens is an innovation disadvantage. It is always important to remember that few customers own multiple platforms, so being consistent across platforms solves your problem but not customer problems.</p>

<p><strong>ARKit:&nbsp;</strong>One measure of the potential for a new framework is how fast new applications show up that show off the capabilities. In the case of the new ARKit (augmented reality), demos showed up before the morning sessions the next day (The Verge even&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theverge.com/tldr/2017/6/9/15771772/ios-11-arkit-augmented-reality-examples-fidget-spinner">catalogs</a>&nbsp;some, and @a16z&rsquo;s @kylebrussell has this&nbsp;<a href="https://github.com/kylebrussell/ARoniOS/wiki/Getting-started-with-ARKit-on-iOS-11">repo</a>). The first thoughts about AR tend to gravitate to gaming, especially with that being such a big category.</p>

<p>My view is that ARKit will become closely connected with business scenarios across commerce, training, assistance, trials, advertising and more. It&rsquo;s not hard to imagine a brand creating some &ldquo;product placement&rdquo; experience that goes viral. While &ldquo;glasses&rdquo; AR platforms are busy trying to recreate a phone and phone-software platform that either fits in glasses or can be easily tethered, Apple already has a device and platform at massive scale. Frankly, it is not hard to imagine a peripheral that takes advantage of this and brings hands-free. Or maybe not, since this capability will be so rich and accessible. With this release of ARKit, Apple will start the flywheel of API-&gt;Apps-&gt;Feedback-&gt;Features that is the hallmark of new and differentiated capabilities.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter alignnone"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Recorded straight from my phone last night. (Apple&#039;s New ARKit + Unity + Overwatch) Have never seen tracking like this. <a href="https://t.co/bCo6KB2XpR">pic.twitter.com/bCo6KB2XpR</a></p>&mdash; codyb (@codybrown) <a href="https://twitter.com/codybrown/status/872532086032355329?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 7, 2017</a></blockquote>
</div></figure>
<p><em>ARKit demo made day of show (@CodyBrown)</em></p>

<p><strong>Core ML:</strong>&nbsp;Much continues to be said about Apple missing out on or even structurally incapable of taking advantage of machine learning (ML). Is Apple inherently a client/device company? Is Apple&rsquo;s lack of a scale services platform the problem? Does privacy hold Apple back? My view has always been that there is a significant amount of cross-customer learning/data that is required for the broadest and most horizontal features&#8202; &mdash; &#8202;it is impossible to implement maps and the full range of routes without using a lot of data. That said, Apple&rsquo;s aim is not to enable more broad horizontal services with the newly introduced Core ML, but to enable ISVs to build on the data they have/collect to deliver useful features and to then offload some of those uses to the device.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>Apple’s aim is not to enable more broad horizontal services with the newly introduced Core ML, but to enable ISVs to build on the data they have/collect to deliver useful features and to then offload some of those uses to the device.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>On the one hand, this is simply a way of using the computation on the device to deliver faster response; on the other hand, it is a way of providing features that might minimize data collection on device and thus improve privacy. The main parts of Core ML are vision tracking, natural language and models. Vision permits tracking, face and object tracking, text detection and so on &#8202;&mdash;&#8202; note the connection to ARKit as this type of layering is something Apple does so well. NL supports a bunch of features that greatly simplify what was previously rule-based and algorithmic work. Models provide access for using either existing models for basic classification (for images, for example) or to run your own models. Again, these features further the gap between device OS platforms (not just features, but how apps are structured) while significantly advancing the state of the art. Many will debate the merits of some of these features on the client, models in particular, but I believe that there are far more uses for scenario specific and vertical learning that can and should be done on the client, without shuttling data to services.</p>

<p><strong>Tablet experience:</strong>&nbsp;The fun part of a developer conference is always the part where end-user features are shown, since everyone can relate, including the non-developers watching. The advances in launching, switching and working in general geared toward the iPad user are significant&#8202; &mdash; &#8202;so significant that there&rsquo;s a good chance we are at a turning point where many more people will use (or just admit to using) their iPads for core productivity work.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>There’s a good chance we are at a turning point where many more people will use (or just admit to using) their iPads for core productivity work.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>Yeah, I&rsquo;ve been saying this for years&#8202; &mdash;&#8202; that ARM-based mobile OS, with new apps geared to a new interaction model, will become dominant. I didn&rsquo;t expect that to be just a pocket-sized device, but based on hours of usage, that is clearly the case (and at least partially responsible for iPad sales curves). What I believe Apple has cleverly done is introduce features such as &ldquo;windowing,&rdquo; drag-and-drop and app switching that will cause the industry to take note of the improved productivity potential while at the same time not forcing a &ldquo;desktop&rdquo; model on &ldquo;everyone.&rdquo; By and large, these features are likely to fall to power users, but that is often how markets tilt. The new Files app (which is very early) will prove to be a game-changer, and so clearly ups the &ldquo;power&rdquo; of the device as many core productivity scenarios are about juggling multiple files in some workflow. For the vast majority of people that define productivity as &ldquo;Office&rdquo; scenarios of notetaking, slides, lists, basic models, communicating (iOS was already the preferred mail platform by volume), and so on, the iPad, with its security, reliability, robustness, performance and also connection to phone (continuity, Messages, etc.) make for an extremely&nbsp;<em>productive</em>&nbsp;experience. Developers take note, as iPad-specific apps will become increasingly important in productivity categories.</p>
<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="iOS 11 Files App and Word Demo" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dBdjJiv9p7g?rel=0" allowfullscreen allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div>
<p><em>One of many demos of iOS 11 files app (this one by Jake Chasan)</em></p>

<p><strong>Messages:</strong>&nbsp;For developers, Messages has made apps more visible and easier to get to (and in the beta really difficult to remove without crashing). Messages is almost certainly the most-used app in U.S. (and potentially European) markets, but in those markets, the idea of apps in messages has not caught on. There&rsquo;s an interesting opportunity global companies have, which is when adding features for one market (say China) can turn those seemingly &ldquo;odd&rdquo; features into global use cases. In this case, it is not clear if the &ldquo;rest of the world&rdquo; will follow WeChat to a messaging-centric world, or if there will be a whole generational upheaval to the mobile platform, the way we saw the uniqueness of Japan&rsquo;s mobile infrastructure upended by smartphones rather than the adoption of that approach. Building an app for Messages is an odd investment right now, though of course the way Apple scales the platform makes this incrementally small, relative to building an app (as it does with Watch and Tablet support).</p>

<p><strong>SiriKit:</strong>&nbsp;SiriKit was introduced last year, and for the most part it is the ability to add the rough equivalent of Alexa Skills to Siri. Perhaps because of the overall reputation for Siri, or maybe because of the excitement around Alexa, this hasn&rsquo;t seen the noticeable takeup one might expect. It could also be that voice control is still too much of a gimmick, especially when your phone is attached to you. iOS 11 expands SiriKit with more domains (built-in apps of notes and lists) and support for payments, QR codes and ride booking.</p>

<p><strong>More UI changes (camera, photos, CarPlay, Ink): &nbsp;</strong>iOS 11 also includes many improvements to the basic use and integrated apps. Most of these do not substantially enhance or differentiate the developer opportunity, but are an important part of advancing the overall ecosystem. You can read or experience these elsewhere.</p>

<p>However, the one major change worth noting is the new&nbsp;<em>screenshot workflow</em>, which is seriously game-changing. Not only does it address common capture issues (getting the wrong shot the first time, but still saving to camera roll, or always needing to crop out the carrier/time), but it adds easy markup, annotation, sharing without saving and more. Closely related is the ability to capture video of sessions, as well (but not video of sessions using the camera or capture!). In addition to random Ink, you can add text, a signature, shapes/callouts or add a magnifier. Crazy cool!</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8673613/Sinofsky_X.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Screenshot of screenshot workflow in iOS 11  | Steven Sinofsky" data-portal-copyright="Steven Sinofsky" />
<p>For Pencil fans, the Ink work is very nice, and shows Apple&rsquo;s fundamental approach which is that Ink is like an acetate layer on top of everything or a region to fill, but not a keyboard replacement. There are many new features, some of which have existed in Windows (or Windows or iOS apps) for quite some time, such as shape recognition, that will prove valuable to some. The CarPlay &ldquo;do not disturb&rdquo; feature is exactly the type of feature that Apple can and should do, that few others would try, and so it is worth high praise for this work. Most platforms would think of CarPlay DND as too parental or even taking away freedom, but it is absolutely the right thing to do.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>iOS hardware</strong></h2>
<p>Like many iPad users, I&rsquo;ve been surprised and disappointed at the pace of iPad hardware changes (as I&rsquo;ve tweeted about often, iPad is my primary device in terms of hours of usage, and where I do writing, financials and slides, in addition to longer sessions of reading, social, etc.).</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>The typical knowledge worker will move to the iPad — or some other device with ARM, mobile OS and those attributes — sooner rather than later.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>The software improvements in iOS 11 already make using a 9.7-inch iPad Pro better. But nothing makes new software seem better than new hardware.</p>

<p>The nature of information or knowledge work (selling, marketing, product management, financials, planning, executing and more) continue to undergo changes. These changes are never happy overnight, and so many look to the pace of change to insist that the change isn&rsquo;t happening. At the same time, so much of the public dialog around work in technology is dominated by engineers and designers who can and should be using Mac or Windows PCs (and will continue to do so). That whole world is 50 million to 100 million people worldwide, and isn&rsquo;t likely to change for some time (until the scenarios completely change, or those tools exist on an iPad).</p>

<p>The new iPad Pro looks is exciting, and having had a chance to see one, I am certain that a broader set of people will tilt toward iPad-only (assuming that we can still fly on planes with iPads!). The typical knowledge worker will move to the iPad &mdash; or some other device with ARM, mobile OS and those attributes &mdash; sooner rather than later. The iPad gives us a big screen to accompany our phone-sized screen.</p>

<p>The new iPad Pro with a slightly bigger screen is great. The new keyboard continues to disappoint (me). It is still a keyboard in the middle. It is too bulky for occasional use, and too constrained for all-day use. The origami unfolding is awkward, the lack of function keys limiting, and the stability poor. I have used the Logitech clamshell, and long for a much slimmer and better-designed clamshell container, which I know Apple (or anyone) is capable. There&rsquo;s a new Pro case that turns the iPad into a Surface (like RT) with full-sized keys and a kickstand. It is still heavier and more awkward than it needs to be. That&rsquo;s the one I&rsquo;ll be using until a better clamshell case comes along (or Apple just does a clamshell iPad).</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8673617/Sinofsky_XI.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Logitech Slim Combo with detachable keyboard for 10.5-inch iPad Pro | Apple" data-portal-copyright="Apple" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading">One more thing</h2>
<p>HomePod was introduced at WWDC, even though there was not a direct developer message beyond SiriKit.</p>

<p>Music is a blind spot for me, so there are many better-qualified people to discuss this scenario. On the other hand, home control is a huge area for me. It is worth noting that in the real world, music is essentially infinitely more important than home control.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/8673625/Sinofsky_XII.png?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Apple HomePod | Apple" data-portal-copyright="Apple" />
<p>I&rsquo;m aware of all those who use Alex/Echo and now Google Assistant for home automation tasks. As aware as I am, I am more skeptical that these will advance beyond demonstrations for some time. I&rsquo;m especially dubious that a stationary speaker will serve as a broad entry into controlling home devices. The fact that the devices from others look to be adding to or relying on screens seems to scream &ldquo;doesn&rsquo;t quite work.&rdquo; The idea of a stationary but smart screen in the home just seems weird when everyone has a screen with them or really close by all the time. And much like AR glasses makers rushing to make a full mobile OS/platform for glasses, speaker makers recrafting an existing OS to create yet another app platform seems tricky, especially if it is an interactive platform.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>Apple has set expectations, and is likely to deliver a “just works” product that looks to deliver on the core scenario of music even better than competing products. That’s what it did with portable music and, later, video.</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>Home control and automation really doesn&rsquo;t work at scale, except for a few silo scenarios now (Ring doorbell is a great example of something that works broadly). Something needs to replace one-off apps, but it isn&rsquo;t clear to me that the replacement is me memorizing a vocabulary for each device and speaking to a stationary device.</p>

<p>That said, one needs to look carefully at not just the what (a really nicely done premium entertainment device) but the how. Apple has set expectations, and is likely to deliver a &ldquo;just works&rdquo; product that looks to deliver on the core scenario of music even better than competing products. That&rsquo;s what Apple did with portable music and, later, video. It was after that initial entry that Apple chose to expand the developer opportunity and platform capabilities of the product. Perhaps with Apple TV, Apple failed to capitalize on that approach. Perhaps with Watch, Apple tried to do too much too soon, and did not deliver on the just works aspect. HomePod seems much closer to how iPod and iPhone came to be, and for that reason alone, I am optimistic.</p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p>Apple released a massive amount of software this past week. Most of it works, too! MacOS is ready for most any developer to use full-time in my experience; iOS 11 is less so.</p>

<p>There&rsquo;s a tendency to see a cloud of analysis around Apple events looking at things from a perspective of Wall Street or how iPhone unit sales will be impacted, which I think can be short-sighted. What Apple showed at WWDC expands computing in new ways&#8202; &mdash; &#8202;new capabilities for mobile phones that can be used by a scaled ecosystem, new hardware combined with software capabilities that can (finally) change how typical business users accomplish productivity tasks, and hardware and software for consumers that bring a new take on the execution of existing by still-immature categories.</p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/sinofsky/"><em>Steven Sinofsky</em></a><em> is a board partner at </em><a href="https://a16z.com"><em>Andreessen Horowitz</em></a><em>, an adviser at Box Inc. and an independent investor and advisor in Silicon Valley companies. Follow him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/stevesi"><em>@stevesi</em></a><em>.</em></p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The rise of machine intelligence at #codecon 2016]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2016/6/6/11863268/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-code-conference-steven-sinofksy" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2016/6/6/11863268/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-code-conference-steven-sinofksy</id>
			<updated>2016-06-06T06:00:07-04:00</updated>
			<published>2016-06-06T06:00:03-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Emerging Tech" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Innovation" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[What do you get when you mix a choice selection of the leaders of the most important companies, a deeply engaged tech-savvy audience, and the best interviewers around? You get Code Conference. This thirteenth (13!) installment of the unique conference proved as timely, revealing and interesting as ever. While the conference has been through a [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="At last week&#039;s Code Conference, Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg outlined numerous efforts in AI across the site, in advertising and, of course, in virtual reality. | Asa Mathat" data-portal-copyright="Asa Mathat" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6578929/REC_ASA_CODE2016-20160601-121258-1659.0.JPG?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	At last week's Code Conference, Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg outlined numerous efforts in AI across the site, in advertising and, of course, in virtual reality. | Asa Mathat	</figcaption>
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<p>What do you get when you mix a choice selection of the leaders of the most important companies, a deeply engaged tech-savvy audience, and the best interviewers around? You get <a href="http://www.recode.net/code-conference-2016"><strong>Code Conference</strong></a>. This thirteenth (13!) installment of the unique conference proved as timely, revealing and interesting as ever.</p>

<p>While the conference has been through a few changes of ownership, some name changes and different venues (and seat configurations), the constants of Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher &mdash; along with a deep roster of <strong>Recode</strong> writers supporting them &mdash; make for the place to hear from (and on video, see) how technology and business trends are created, used or handled by the important companies of our time. On a personal note, I&rsquo;ve been lucky enough to attend every one of these &mdash; you can find me on the far side, taking notes and listening attentively.</p>
<p><q class="right">By any name, machine learning, artificial intelligence, deep simulation &mdash; or, as IBM&rsquo;s CEO insisted, cognitive computing &mdash; were front and center for nearly every speaker.</q></p>
<p><br>Some years are remembered as launch years (like the iPod, or even Windows or Office releases!), and others are marked more by debates over disruption (such as net neutrality or music distribution). Rarely do we get to experience a year when the breadth of speakers collectively express both optimism and execution plans for a technology shift as we saw this year. By any name, machine learning, artificial intelligence, deep simulation &mdash; or, as IBM&rsquo;s CEO insisted, cognitive computing &mdash; were front and center for nearly every speaker.</p>

<p>Over the course of the previous 12 conferences, there have been themes that everyone might have touched on, but I don&rsquo;t recall a case where there was such uniform aggressiveness at staking a claim on the technology. Across the board, speakers went to great lengths to talk about how their customers are going to benefit from the use of intelligence technologies (let&rsquo;s call this &#8220;AI&#8221;) in products and services.</p>

<p>Why is this not simply a waypoint on the way through the <a href="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle">hype cycle</a>? The short answer is because we, as customers, are already &#8220;using&#8221; intelligence every day on our smart phones. It is worth pausing to acknowledge that somehow over the course of the past year, AI has gone from passing reference through implementation to daily use.</p>

<p>Today&rsquo;s use of AI is not hype, but reality.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Across the board</h2>
<p>The most fascinating aspect of listening to the speakers respond to questions about how AI will or does play a role in their respective enterprises is how the technology spans devices, strategies and business models. While each of us might be familiar with a specific example, looking across the speakers paints a picture of an incredibly rapid and deep technology diffusion.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/6/1/11826718/jeff-bezos-amazon-full-video-code">Amazon CEO <strong>Jeff Bezos</strong></a><strong> </strong>spoke at great length about the role of AI in the company&#8217;s breakout product, Echo. In many ways, Echo has come to symbolize the true potential of multiple technologies across voice commands, agents and machine learning, all packaged up in super-simple consumer devices. In addition, Bezos outlined how Alexa &mdash; the technology underpinnings of Echo &mdash; is both a customizable platform and an embeddable technology. Developers can build new &#8220;skills&#8221; for Alexa and contribute &#8220;learning&#8221; to offer new capabilities (and as Mossberg noted, owners receive weekly email detailing the latest skills added). Makers can embed Alexa technology in their own devices &mdash; one example mentioned was an alarm clock &mdash; and turn a mundane technology into another AI-enabled endpoint.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/5/31/11825640/ford-ceo-mark-fields-code-uber-google-partnership">Ford CEO <strong>Mark Fields</strong></a><strong> </strong>worked to convince the <strong>Code</strong> crowd that while Ford&rsquo;s intrinsic strength in AI or cloud might not be there, they are actively partnering (with Pivotal, for example) and bringing in-house the skills needed to make sure Ford vehicles participate in this technology wave. While Fields did not articulate a deep vision of AI, he used examples around maintenance and navigation to illustrate the company&#8217;s commitment.</p>

<p>In an approach similar to Ford, <a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/6/1/11835156/cisco-iot-28-million-connected-devices-cars">Cisco CEO <strong>Chuck Robbins</strong></a><strong> </strong>talked about committing his company&#8217;s thousands of software engineers to AI, and incorporating it into Ford&#8217;s existing product lines. He spoke of using AI to bring better management and understanding to modern networks that will contain millions of end points of all sorts.</p>

<p>While spending a good deal of time differentiating his company from Amazon, <a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/6/2/11841106/ebay-devin-wenig-amazon">eBay CEO <strong>Devin Wenig</strong></a><strong> </strong>talked in detail about eBay&#8217;s amazing work to improve the shopping experience, and to eliminate fraud by using AI. Wenig characterized the use of AI as the way the company will deliver a highly personalized eBay &mdash; one that is curated and relevant. Fraud, he <a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/6/2/11845930/ebays-ceo-fraud-not-issue">claimed</a> (in a follow-up interview by Lauren Goode, from <strong>Recode&#8217;s</strong> Vox partner The Verge), has become a &#8220;meaningless&#8221; number through the use of technology.</p>
<p><q class="left">That AI is so mainstream today that dozens of CEOs can articulate company execution plans using the technology is directly attributable to four important changes in the technology landscape.</q></p>
<p><br><a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/6/1/11830076/ibm-ginni-rometty-watson">IBM CEO <strong>Ginni Rometty</strong></a> traced IBM&rsquo;s longstanding efforts in AI, and outlined what amounts to a &#8220;bet the company&#8221; investment in the technology. She discussed scenarios from health care to education, from business IT to third-party developers, and from cloud to on-premises as ways IBM is working to contribute to and support the use of AI. Most interesting were the efforts IBM is making to provide open source or freely available solutions, which Rometty said ran counter to IBM&rsquo;s history, but were essential to see the company moving forward. While many of us think of IBM&rsquo;s Big Blue or &#8220;Jeopardy&#8221; building up to Watson, IBM&rsquo;s history with AI goes to the very start of the field, where the famed Watson Labs worked to pioneer the earliest ideas in translation, language processing, speech and handwriting recognition, and more. Even with so many challenges, one has to be impressed by Rometty&#8217;s outlook on the technology and the depth of IBM&rsquo;s engagement.</p>

<p>Perhaps the most frequent use of AI any of us experience is through Facebook on our mobile phones, and together onstage, <a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/6/1/11832608/sheryl-sandberg-michael-schroepfer-facebook-full-video-code">Facebook COO<strong> Sheryl Sandberg </strong>and CTO <strong>Mike Schroepfer</strong></a> outlined numerous efforts in AI across the site, advertisers and, of course, in virtual reality. The depth of both product features and applied research going on in AI at Facebook is not as widely appreciated, I believe. For example, a few weeks ago, Facebook contributed a dozen papers to the major AI conference <a href="https://research.facebook.com/blog/facebook-ai-research-at-iclr-2016/">ICLR</a>. As mentioned below, the role each of us play as people (not &#8220;user,&#8221; according to both speakers) is a huge contributor to Facebook&rsquo;s ability to deliver AI-based features like photo tagging that we find so valuable.</p>

<p>Fresh off the heels of the I/O Conference, <a href="http://www.recode.net/2016/6/1/11829640/sundar-pichai-google-full-video-code">Google CEO <strong>Sundar Pichai</strong> </a>took us through the history of AI at Google. There is clearly no other company that has the depth of efforts and the broad use of AI in products over time. Without a doubt, AI has always defined Google, and it is only in the past year or so that this has become broadly understood. Photos, inbox, search, advertising, Assistant, self-driving cars &mdash; and the list continues &mdash;were all examples used by Pichai to illustrate Google&rsquo;s ongoing commitment to AI. If AI is itself a platform, Google is most certainly the most invested and best positioned to be the leader in such a platform.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why this year?</h2>
<p>The <strong>Code Conference</strong> has certainly seen disruptive shifts before: Digital media, mobile devices and smartphones, to name a few. AI is proving to be a different kind of shift &mdash; not one that some are resisting or concerned about disrupting their legacy business, but one that everyone is embracing and running toward.</p>
<p><q class="right">Down the road, the interesting question will not be which companies used AI, but which companies made the most of AI in novel ways.</q></p>
<p>Down the road, the interesting question will not be which companies used AI, but which companies made the most of AI in novel ways. There is a massive amount of inventing left to do in the field, because even with the rapid rise of the technology, things are still very much in their infancy. For example, Skype Translator was previewed by Microsoft two years ago at the <strong>Code Conference</strong>, and is built using the most modern AI techniques of deep learning.</p>

<p><br>That AI is so mainstream today that dozens of CEOs can articulate company execution plans using the technology is directly attributable to four important changes in the technology landscape. I think it&#8217;s worth reflecting on how these came together to make it possible to see such a rapid move from lab to deployed feature in such a high-tech endeavor.</p>

<p><strong>Raw compute power for models</strong>: While we love to talk about Moore&rsquo;s law as enabling so much, when it comes to AI, it is Moore&rsquo;s law applied to parallel architectures, not Intel&rsquo;s scalar ones. The application of even more transistors to graphics processing units (GPU) has been a key enabler of AI technology. Cloud architecture plays an incredibly important part in this because companies do not need to build out their own GPU data centers in order to tap into the power of AI training models, but can tap into on-demand scale.</p>

<p><strong>Massive data capacity for training</strong>: Everyone has come to learn that more data is the only way to train AI models, and you can never have too much data (but it is easy to have too little). It is only recently that cloud architectures have become &#8220;routine&#8221; and &#8220;economical&#8221; at both retaining and accessing the quantities of data required for training. Facebook provides the easiest-to-visualize view of this as it trains recognition of people on the more than 300 million photos a day (or half a petabyte). IBM&rsquo;s examples using radiology offer another view into just how important the evolution of storage is to AI.</p>
<p><q class="left">In the span of a short time, AI has made a leap, and has likely skipped over the trough of disillusionment. I am not saying that lightly.</q></p>
<p><br><strong>Incredible availability of labeled data:</strong> As important as data is to training, data without &#8220;labels&#8221; isn&rsquo;t very helpful. This is where our role using technology plays an important part, as well as the openness of the internet. It isn&rsquo;t just that we upload photos to Facebook, but that we tag people we know, and in doing so, train the image-recognition engine. It isn&rsquo;t enough for eBay to say it wants to offer a customized store, but that we are signed in and purchasing items to inform the customization engine. This is such an advance over the way we used to think of click streams or guessing if someone is a return visitor.</p>

<p>In addition to all of this, sensors in our phones offer motion and location data, enhancing everything we are doing. Clearly and obviously, there are privacy and security questions with all of this, but at the same time, never before have there been such personal benefits to each of us as we use services. The availability of data goes beyond that which I personally generate (and label), and includes data sets and APIs that are now available simply because of openness and cloud-based solutions (for example, economic and demographic data from governments) that can be incorporated as part of training models.</p>

<p><strong>Open implementations of technology underpinnings: </strong>The most fascinating aspect of the rise of AI solutions has been that so much of the core technology has been developed in the open (often by the research arms of companies) or is at least contributed in an open way relatively early in the evolution of the technology. Google&rsquo;s TensorFlow, Facebook&rsquo;s Torch, IBM&rsquo;s SystemML and UC Berkeley&rsquo;s CAFFE, along with technologies for data (such as Spark) are all openly available platform elements. This is most certainly following the same pattern as HTML/HTTP, which means the economics will be elsewhere in the system (in the data, training and models, of course).</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What’s next?</h2>
<p>In the span of a short time, AI has made a leap, and has likely skipped over the trough of disillusionment. I am not saying that lightly.</p>

<p>While there is no doubt that some will be disappointed in what transpires over the next couple of years, there is also no doubt that such skepticism will be communicated through a vast number of writing and communication tools all benefitting from AI. Nothing ever does everything everyone wants as soon as everyone would like.</p>

<p>It is clear, without qualification, that AI is a mainstream technology among the technology leadership companies, and in the near future will be an ingredient of most every leading product and service.</p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p><a href="https://blog.learningbyshipping.com"><em>Steven Sinofsky</em></a><em> serves on boards of several Andreessen Horowitz investments, and is an investor and adviser to startups and an adviser at Box Inc. Reach him </em><a href="https://twitter.com/stevesi"><em>@stevesi</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Africa&#8217;s Mobile-Sun Revolution]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2015/4/29/11561988/africas-mobile-sun-revolution" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2015/4/29/11561988/africas-mobile-sun-revolution</id>
			<updated>2019-03-06T04:54:34-05:00</updated>
			<published>2015-04-29T03:45:27-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The transformative potential for mobile communications is upon us in every aspect of life. In the developing world where infrastructure of all types is at a premium, few question the potential for mobile, but many wonder whether it should be a priority. Many years of visiting the developing world have taught me that, given the [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Steven Sinofsky" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/15788020/sinofsky-solar-feature1.0.1462603988.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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<p><span class="dropcap">T</span>he transformative potential for mobile communications is upon us in every aspect of life. In the developing world where infrastructure of all types is at a premium, few question the potential for mobile, but many wonder whether it should be a priority.</p>
<p>Many years of visiting the developing world have taught me that, given the tools, people &mdash; including the very poor &mdash; will quickly and easily put them to uses that exceed even the well-intentioned ideas of the developed world. Poor people want to and can do everything people of means can do, they just don&rsquo;t have the money.</p>

<p>Previously, I&rsquo;ve written about <a href="http://recode.net/2014/07/24/disrupting-payments-africa-style/">the rise of ubiquitous mobile payments across Africa</a>, and the work to bring <a href="http://recode.net/2014/07/29/going-where-the-money-isnt-wi-fi-for-south-african-townships/">free high-speed Wi-Fi</a> to the settlements of South Africa. One thing has been missing, though, and that is access to reliable sources of power to keep these mobile phones and tablets running. In just a short time &mdash; less than a year &mdash; solar panels have become a commonplace sight in one relatively poor village I recently returned to. I think this is a trend worth noting.</p>

<p>It is also the sort of disruptive trend we are getting used to seeing in developing markets. The market need and context leads to solutions that leapfrog what we created over many years in the developed world. Wireless phones skipped over landlines. Smartphones skipped over the PC. Mobile banking skipped over plastic cards and banks.</p>

<p>Could it be that solar power, potentially combined with large-scale batteries, will be the &ldquo;grid&rdquo; in developing markets, perhaps at least in the near future? I think so. At the very least, solar will prove enormously useful and beneficial and require effectively zero-dollar investments in infrastructure to dramatically improve lives. Solar combined with small-scale appliances, starting with mobile phones, provides an enormous increase in standard of living.</p>
<h3 class="red">Infrastructure history</h3><p><span class="dropcap">H</span>istorically, being poor in a developing economy put you at the end of a long chain of government and international NGO assistance when it comes to infrastructure. While people can pull together the makings of shelter and food along with subsistence labor or farming, access to what we in the developing world consider basic rights continues to be a remarkable challenge.</p>
<p>For the past 50 or more years, global organizations have been orchestrating &ldquo;top down&rdquo; approaches to building infrastructure: Roads, water, sewage and housing. There have been convincing successes in many of these areas. The recent <a href="http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.shtml">UN Millennium Development Goals report</a> demonstrates that the percentage of humans living at extreme poverty has decreased by almost half. In 1990, almost half the population in developing regions lived on less than $1.25 a day, the common definition of extreme poverty. This rate dropped to 22 percent by 2010, reducing the number of people living in extreme poverty by 700 million.</p>

<p>Nevertheless, billions of people live every day without access to basic infrastructure needs. Yet they continue to thrive, grow and improve their lives.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417263" data-caption=" This UN Millennium Development Goals infographic shows the dramatic decline in percentage of people living under extreme poverty."><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417263/mdg-infographic-1.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" /><p><span class="dropcap">W</span>hile the efforts to introduce major infrastructure will continue, the pace can sometimes be slower than either the people would like or what those of us in the developing world believe should be &ldquo;acceptable.&rdquo;</p>
<p>A village I know of, about 10 miles outside a major city in southern Africa, started from a patch of land contributed by the government about six years ago, and grew to a thriving neighborhood of 400 single-family homes. These homes are multi-room, secure, cement structures with indoor connections to sewage. The families of these homes earn about $100-$200 a month in a wide range of jobs. By way of comparison, these homes cost under $10,000 to build.</p>

<p>While the roads are unpaved, this is hardly noticed. But one thing has become much more noticeable of late is the lack of electrical power. Historically, this has not been nearly as problematic as we in the developing world might think. Their economy and jobs were tuned to daylight hours and work that made use of the energy sources available.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417265" data-caption=" Solar-powered streetlights have been installed recently &mdash; here under construction &mdash; increasing public safety and providing light to the community."><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417265/sinofsky2.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" /><div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417267" data-caption=" Several finished homes around a nearly complete streetlight installation that also illuminates a drinking-water well, enabling nighttime access to water."><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417267/sinofsky-3a.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" /><p><span class="dropcap">I</span>n an effort to bring additional safety to the village, the citizens worked with local government to install solar &ldquo;street lights,&rdquo; such as the one pictured here. This simple development began to change the nighttime for residents. These were installed beginning about nine months ago (as seen in the first photo, with a closer to production installation in the second).</p>
<p>Historically, this type of infrastructure, street lighting, would come after a connection to the electrical grid and development of roads. Solar power has made this &ldquo;reordering&rdquo; possible and welcome. Lighting streets is great, but that leads to more demands for power.</p>
<h3 class="red">Mobile phones, the new infrastructure</h3><p><span class="dropcap">T</span>hese residents are pretty well off, even on relatively low wages that are three to five times the extreme poverty level. While they lack electricity and roads, they are safe, secured and sheltered.</p>
<p>One of the contributors to the improved standard of living has been mobile phones. Over the past couple of years, mobile phone penetration in this village has reached essentially 100 percent per household, and most adults have a mobile.</p>

<p>The use of mobiles is not a luxury, but essential to daily life. Those that commute into the city to sell or buy supplies can check on potential or availability via mobile.</p>

<p>Families can stay connected even when one goes far away for a good job or better work. Safety can be maintained by a &ldquo;neighborhood watch&rdquo; system powered by mobile. Students can access additional resources or teacher help via mobile. Of course, people love to use their phones to access the latest World Cup soccer results or listen to religious broadcasts.</p>

<p>All of these uses and infinitely more were developed in a truly bottom-up approach. There were no courses, no tutorials, no NGOs showing up to &ldquo;deploy&rdquo; phones or to train people. Access to the tools of communication and information as a platform were put to uses that surprise even the most tech-savvy (i.e., me). Mobile is so beneficial and so easy to access that it has quickly become ubiquitous and essential.</p>

<p>Last year, when I wrote for <strong>Re/code</strong> about mobile banking and free Wi-Fi, I received a fair number of comments and emails saying how this seemed like an unnecessary luxury, and that smartphones were being pushed on people who couldn&rsquo;t afford the minutes or kilobytes, or would much rather have better access to water or toilets. The truth is, when you talk to people who live here, the priority for access unquestionably goes to mobile communication. In their own words, time and time again, the priority is attached to mobile communications and information.</p>

<p>Fortunately, because of the openness most governments have had to investments from multinational telecoms such as MTN, Airtel and Orange, most cities and suburban areas of the continent are well covered by 2G and often 3G connectivity. The rates are competitive across carriers, and many people carry multiple SIMs to arbitrage those rates, since saving pennies matters (calls within a carrier network are often cheaper than across carriers).</p>
<h3 class="red">Mobile powered by solar</h3><p><span class="dropcap">T</span>here has been one problem, though, and that is keeping phones charged. The more people use their phones (day and night), the more this has become a problem. While many of us spend time searching for outlets, what do you do when the nearest outlet might be a few miles away?</p><div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417269" data-caption=" It is not uncommon to see one outlet shared by many members of a community. This outlet is in the community center, which is one of a small number of grid-connected structures. Note the variety of feature phones."><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417269/unnamed-51.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p>When there is an outlet, you often see people grouped around it, or one person volunteers to rotate phones through the charging cycles. Here&rsquo;s a picture of an outlet in the one building connected to power, the community center. This is a pretty common sight.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417271" data-caption=" Small portable solar panels can serve as &ldquo;permanent&rdquo; power sources when roof-mounted. You can see the extension wire drawn through the window."><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417271/dsc_0303.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p>An amazing transformation is taking place, and that is the rise of solar. What we might see as an exotic or luxury form of power for hikers and backpackers, or something reasonably well-off people use to augment their home power, has become as common a sight as the water pump.</p>

<p>The plethora of phones sharing a single outlet has been replaced by the portable solar panel out in front of every single home.</p>
<p><span class="dropcap">A</span>n interesting confluence of two factors has brought solar so quickly and cheaply to these people. First, as we all know, China has been investing massively in solar technology, solar panels and solar-powered devices. That has brought choice and low prices, as one would expect. In seeking growth opportunities, Chinese companies are looking to the vast market opportunity in Africa, where people are still not connected to a grid. There&rsquo;s a full supply chain of innovation, from the solar through to integrated appliances with batteries.</p>
<p>Second, China has a significant presence in many African countries, and is contributing a massive amount of support in dollars and people to build out more traditional infrastructure, particularly transportation. In fact, many Chinese immigrants in country on work projects become the first customers of some of these solar innovations.</p>

<p>People are exposed to low-cost, low-power portable solar panels and they are &ldquo;hooked.&rdquo; In fact, you can now see many small stores that sell 100w panels for the basics of charging phones. You can see solar for sale in the image below. I left the whole store in the photo just to offer a bit of culture. The second photo shows the solar &ldquo;for sale&rdquo; offers.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417273" data-caption=" A typical storefront in this community, selling a variety of important products for the home. Solar panels are for sale, as indicated by the signs in the upper left."><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417273/sinofsky6a.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" /><div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417275" data-caption=" Detail from the storefront showing the solar panels for sale. There is a vibrant after-market for panels, as they often change hands, depending on the capital needs of a family."><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417275/sinofsky7a.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" /><p><span class="dropcap">L</span>ike many significant investments, there&rsquo;s a vibrant market in both used panels and in the repair and maintenance of panels and wiring. Solar is a budding industry, for sure.</p>
<p>But people want more than to charge their phones once they see the &ldquo;power&rdquo; of solar. Here is where the ever-improving and shrinking of solar, LED lights, lithium batteries and more are coming together to transform the power consumption landscape and the very definition of &ldquo;home appliances.&rdquo;</p>

<p>In the developed world, we are transitioning from incandescent and fluorescent lighting in a rapid pace (in California, new construction effectively requires LED). LED lights, in addition to lasting &ldquo;forever,&rdquo; also consume 80 percent less power. Combining LED lights, low-cost rechargeable batteries and solar, you can all of a sudden light up a home at night. <a href="http://www.econetwireless.com">Econet</a> is one of the largest mobile carriers/companies in Africa, and has many other ventures that improve the lives of people.</p>

<p>Here are a few Econet-developed LED lanterns recharging outside a home. This person has three lights, and shares or rents them with neighbors as a business. Not only are these cheaper and more durable than a fossil-fuel-based lantern, they have no ongoing cost, since they are powered by the sun.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417277" data-caption=" Several modern, portable, solar-powered LED lamps sold at very low cost by mobile provider Econet. The owner rents these lamps out for short-term use."><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417277/sinofsky8a.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" /><p><span class="dropcap">W</span>ith China bringing down the cost of larger panels, and the abundance of trade between Africa and China, there&rsquo;s an explosion in slightly larger solar panels. In fact, many of the homes I saw just nine months ago now commonly sport a large two-by-four-foot solar panel on the roof or strategically positioned for maximal use.</p><div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417279" data-caption=" These two boys were hanging out when I walked by, and quickly chose a formal pose in front of their home, which has a large permanent solar panel mounted on the roof."><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417279/sinofsky9a.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" /><p><span class="dropcap">P</span>anels are often on the ground, because they move between homes where the investment for the panel has been shared by a couple of families. This might seem inefficient or odd to many, but the developing world is the master of the shared economy. Many might be familiar with the founding story of Lyft based on experiences with shared van rides in Zimbabwe, <a href="http://www.techzim.co.zw/2011/07/zimride-the-silicon-valley-start-up-inspired-by-zimbabwe/">Zimride</a>.</p><div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417281" data-caption=" A trio of medium-sized solar panels strategically placed outside the doors of several homes sharing a courtyard"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417281/sinofsky11a.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" /><h3 class="red">Just the first step</h3><p><span class="dropcap">W</span>e are just at the start of this next revolution at improving the lives of people in developing economies using solar power.</p>
<p>Three sets of advances will contribute to improved standards of living relative to economics, safety and comfort.</p>

<p>First, more and more battery-operated appliances will make their way into the world marketplace. At CES this year, we saw battery-operated developed-market products for everything from vacuum cleaners to stoves. Once something is battery-powered, it can be easily charged. These innovations will make their way to appliances that are useful in the context of the developing world, as we have seen with home lighting. The improvement in batteries in both cost and capacity (and weight) will drive major changes in appliances across all markets.</p>

<p>Second, the lowering of the price of solar panels will continue, and they will become commonplace as the next infrastructure requirement. This will then make possible all sorts of improvements in schools, work and safety. One thing that can then happen is an improvement in communication that comes from high speed Wi-Fi throughout villages like the one described <a href="http://projectisizwe.org">here</a>. Solar can power point-to-point connectivity or even a satellite uplink. Obviously, costs of connectivity itself will be something to deal with, but we&rsquo;ve already seen how people adapt their needs and use of cash flow when something provides an extremely high benefit. It is far more likely that Wi-Fi will be built out before broad-based 3G or 4G coverage and upgrades can happen.</p>

<p>Third, I would not be surprised to see innovations in battery storage make their way to the developing markets long before they are ubiquitous in the developed markets.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6417285" data-caption=" A full-sized &ldquo;roof&rdquo; solar panel leaning up against a clothesline. Often roof-mounting panels is structurally challenging, so it is not uncommon to see these larger panels placed nearby on the ground."><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6417285/sinofsky12a.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p>Developed markets will value batteries for power backup in case of a loss of power and solar storage (rather than feeding back to the grid). But in the developing markets, a battery pack could provide continuous and on-demand power for a home in quantity, as well as nighttime power allowing for studying, businesses and more. This is transformative, as people can then begin to operate outside of daylight hours and to use a broader range of appliances that can save time, increase safety in the home and improve quality of life.</p>

<p>Our industry is all about mobile and cloud. With the arrival of low-cost solar, it&rsquo;s no surprise that the revolution taking place in developing markets these days is rooted in mobile-sun.</p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p><em>Steven Sinofsky is a board partner at </em><a href="http://a16z.com/"><em>Andreessen Horowitz</em></a><em>, an adviser at Box Inc., and an executive in residence at Harvard Business School. Follow him </em><a href="http://twitter.com/stevesi"><em>@stevesi</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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			<author>
				<name>Steven Sinofsky</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Forecast: Workplace Trends, Choices and Technologies for 2015]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2014/12/18/11633870/forecast-workplace-trends-choices-and-technologies-for-2015" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2014/12/18/11633870/forecast-workplace-trends-choices-and-technologies-for-2015</id>
			<updated>2019-03-06T06:25:43-05:00</updated>
			<published>2014-12-18T07:00:06-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Artificial Intelligence" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Business &amp; Finance" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Innovation" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Media" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Money" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[What&#8217;s in store for 2015 when it comes to technology advances in the workplace? Box growth in a number of nascent technologies accurately describes 2014. This next year will see these technologies broadly deployed, but with that deployment will come challenges and choices to make. This sets up 2015 to be a year of intense [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p>What&rsquo;s in store for 2015 when it comes to technology advances in the workplace?</p>

<p>Box growth in a number of nascent technologies accurately describes 2014. This next year will see these technologies broadly deployed, but with that deployment will come challenges and choices to make. This sets up 2015 to be a year of intense activity and important choices &mdash; how far forward to leap, and how to transition from a world we all know and are working in comfortably. In today&rsquo;s context of the primacy of smartphone and tablet devices, robust cross-organization cloud services and the changing nature of productivity &mdash; all combined with the acute needs of enterprise security &mdash; lead to dramatic change in the definition of the enterprise computing platform, starting this year.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6455529"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6455529/2014_2015_sand1_ellensmile.0.jpg"></div><h2 class="red">Amazing 2014</h2><ul class="wp-block-list"><li>This past year has seen an incredible — and <a href="http://blog.learningbyshipping.com/2013/12/17/designing-for-exponential-trends-of-2014/">exponential</a> — <a href="http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations">diffusion of technologies</a>. Who would have thought at the start of the year we would end the year surrounded by:<br>Smartphone/supercomputers, some costing less than $50 contract-free, in the hands of almost two billion people</li><li>Free (essentially) or unlimited cloud storage for individuals and businesses</li><li>Tablets outselling laptops</li><li>4G LTE speeds from a single worldwide device in most of the developed world</li><li>Amazing pixel densities on large-screen displays, introduced without a premium price</li><li>Streaming 4K video</li><li>Apple’s iPhone 6 Plus “phablet” sold very well (we think) and is now perfectly normal to use</li><li>SaaS/cloud services scaling to tens of millions of business subscribers</li><li>Major cloud platforms putting millions of servers in their data centers</li><li>Shared transportation is on a path to substitute for traditional taxis, and in many cases, private car ownership</li><li>Mobile payments finally arrived at scale in the U.S. and are routine in some of the world’s least developed economies</li></ul>
<p>These and many more advances went from introduction to deployment, especially among technology leaders and early adopters, thus creating a &ldquo;new normal.&rdquo; In terms of Geoffrey Moore&rsquo;s seminal work from 1991, &ldquo;Crossing the Chasm,&rdquo; these technologies have been adopted by technical visionaries and are now crossing the chasm to the broader population.</p>

<p>In the real&trade; world, technology diffusion takes time (deployment, change, etc.), so we have not yet seen the full impact of any of the above. Moving forward to that future &mdash; not just making changes for the sake of change &mdash; requires a point of view and making trade-offs. This post has in mind the <em>pragmatists</em> (in Moore&rsquo;s terminology) who want to accelerate and get the benefits from technology transition. Early visionary adopters have already made their moves. Pragmatists often face the real work in bringing the technology to the next stage of adoption, but often also face their own tendency toward skepticism of step-function changes, along with trade-offs in how to move forward.</p>
<h2 class="red">Viewpoint 2015</h2><ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Even with many hard choices and challenges, for me, the coming year is a year of extreme optimism for what will be accomplished and how big a difference a year will make. Looking at the directions firmly seeded in 2014, the following represent strategies and choices for 2015 that demand an execution-oriented point of view:<br>Enterprise cloud comes to everyone</li><li>Email isn’t dead, just wounded, but kill off attachments with prejudice</li><li>Productivity breaks from legacy work products and workflows</li><li>Tablets make a “surprise comeback”</li><li>Mobile device management aims to get it right</li><li>Hybrid cloud ROI isn’t there, and the complexity is huge</li><li>Cross-platform really (still) won’t work</li><li>Massive security breaches challenge the enterprise platform</li></ul><div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6455531"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6455531/2015_cloud_phloxii.0.jpg"></div><h2 class="red">Enterprise cloud comes to everyone.</h2>
<p>When it comes to cloud services for typical information workflows, bottom-up adoption, enterprise pilots and trials defined 2014. The debate over on-premise versus cloud will mostly fade as the pragmatists see that legacy &ldquo;on-prem&rdquo; or hosted on-prem software can no longer innovate fast enough or connect to the wide array of services available. Cloud architecture is different, and new software is required to benefit from moving to the cloud. The defensibility of holding an enterprise back or attempts to find plug-replacements for existing legacy systems proved weak, and the demand from business unit leaders and employees for mobile access, cross-product integration, enterprise-spanning collaboration and the inherent flexibility of cloud architecture is too great.</p>

<p>The most substantial development in 2015 will be enterprises defaulting to multi-tenant, public-cloud solutions recognizing that the perceived risks or performance and scale challenges are far less than any existing on-prem or hosted solution or upgrade of the same. The biggest drivers will prove to be the need for primarily mobile access, cross-enterprise collaboration and even security. The biggest risk will be enterprises that continue to shut off or regulate access to solutions, especially by preventing use of enterprise email credentials or devices.</p>

<p>The biggest enterprise opportunity will be integrating leading offerings with enterprise sign-on and namespace to permit easy bottom-up usage across the enterprise, with minimal friction. Because of the rapid switch to cloud, we will see legacy on-prem providers relabel or rebrand hosted legacy solutions as cloud. The attributes of cloud &ldquo;native&rdquo; will be key purchase criteria, more than legacy compatibility.</p>
<h2 class="red">Email isn&rsquo;t dead &mdash; just wounded &mdash; but kill off attachments with prejudice.</h2>
<p>So much has been said and written about the negatives of email and the need for it to go away. Yet it keeps coming back. The truth is, it never went away, but it is changing dramatically in how it is used. Anyone that interacts with millennials knows that email is viewed the way Gen-Xers might view a written letter, as an overly formal means of communication. Long threads, attachments and elaborate formatting are archaic, confusing and counter to collaboration. Messaging services and apps trump email for all but the most formal or regulated communication, with no single service dominant, as context matters. In emerging markets, email will never attain the same status as developed markets. Today, receiving links to documents is still suboptimal, with gaps to be closed and features to be created, but that should not slow progress this year.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6455533"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6455533/2015_loading_paul-stringer.0.jpg"></div>
<p>Using cloud-based documents supports an organization knowing where the single, true copy resides, without concern that the asset will proliferate. Mobile devices can use more secure viewers to see, print and annotate documents, without making copies unnecessarily. The idea of having a local copy of attachments (or mail), or even just an inbox of attachments, is proving to be a security nightmare. Out of that reality, many startups are providing incredibly innovative scaleable solutions that can be deployed now based on using cloud solutions,.</p>

<p>Services like <a href="https://docsend.com">DocSend</a> can track usage of high-value documents. <a href="http://textio.com">Textio</a> can analyze cloud-based documents without having to extract them from a mail store, or try to locate them on file shares. <a href="https://quip.com/-/login/google?state=qvzCh5u8Fbw&amp;code=4/BiUWNEowSAdwfQGlg9qA3ApgaWA2PYE4aTbWr39i8os.gv2n4IILRQEfEnp6UAPFm0FSXzCzlAI">Quip</a> edits documents and basic spreadsheets, and integrates contextual messaging avoiding both mail and attachments while safely spanning org boundaries.</p>

<p>This year, casting technologies will allow links to be sent to displays via cloud services for documents, as video is today. The leading enterprises will rapidly move away from managing a sea of attachments and collaborating in endless email threads. The cultural change is significant and not to be underestimated, but the benefits are now tangible and needed, and solutions exist. The opportunity for new solutions from startups continues this year, with deployments going big. Save email for introduction, announcements and other one-to-many communications.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6455535"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6455535/2015-gold.0.jpg"></div><h2 class="red">Productivity breaks from legacy work products and workflows.</h2>
<p>The gold standard for creating business work products is not going anywhere this year, or for 10 more years. The gold standard for business work products, however, is rapidly changing. Nothing will ever be better than Office at creating Office work products. What has significantly changed, in part driven by mobile and in part driven by a generational change in communication approach, is the very definition of work products that matter the most. Gone are the days where the enterprise productivity ninja was the person who could make the richest document or presentation. The workflow of static information, in large, report-based documents making endless rounds as attachments, is looking more and more like a Selectric-created report stuffed in an interoffice envelope.</p>

<p>Today&rsquo;s enterprise productivity ninja is someone who can get answers on their tablet while on a conference call from an offsite. They focus their energy on the cloud-based tools that have the most up-to-date data, and they get the answers and don&rsquo;t fret about presentation. They share quickly knowing that content matters more than presentation because of the ephemeral nature of business information. The opportunity for the enterprise is on the back end, and moving to real-time, cloud-based solutions that forgo the traditional delays and laborious <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extract,_transform,_load">ETL</a> efforts of dragging massive amounts of data onto client PCs for analysis. The risk is in seeing cloud solutions as anything but the definitive source of data and as workgroup or side solutions, so integrating with the primary sources of transaction data will provide a great opportunity to the organization.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6455537"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6455537/2015_tablet_igor-stevanovic.0.jpg"></div><h2 class="red">Tablets make a &ldquo;surprise comeback&rdquo;</h2>
<p>Some thought 2014 was <a href="http://recode.net/2014/02/06/our-love-affair-with-the-tablet-is-over/">the year tablets faded</a>. Many debated the long replacement cycle or weak competitive position of tablet between phablet and laptop. The reality is that tablets will outsell laptops this year. Some discount all the cheap Android tablets barely used at home, but then one must discount the laptops that go unused in analogous scenarios. Regardless, one thing distinguished 2014 with respect to tablets, defined as iPads: You see them in the hands of business people everywhere, from the coffee shop to the airport to the conference to the boardroom. On those iPads, there are enterprise apps, email and browsing (and now Office), doing enterprise work.</p>

<p>The big change in 2015 will be (and I am guessing like everyone else) the introduction of a new iPad, and likely first-party keyboard attachments and/or (at least) iOS software enhancements for improved &ldquo;productivity.&rdquo; A tablet properly defined is not just a form factor, but is a hardware platform (ARM) and a modern/mobile operating system (iOS, Android, Windows Phone/Windows on ARM). Those characteristics, being a big phone, come with the attributes of security, reliability, performance, connectivity, robustness, app store, thinness, light weight; and above all, those attributes remain constant over time.</p>

<p>Laptops will have their place for another decade or more, but they will become stationary desktop tools used for profession-defining tools (Excel in finance, Photoshop in design, AutoCAD in architecture, and many more). Work will happen first on mobile platforms, for both team agility and organizational security. The scenario that will resonate will be a larger-screened modern-OS tablet with a keyboard and a phone/phablet as a second screen used in concert, as shown by Apple&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.apple.com/ios/whats-new/continuity/">Continuity</a>. The most significant opportunity for those making apps will be to design tablet- and phablet-optimized experiences and assume the app is the primary use case.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6455539"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6455539/2015_crowd_digital-storm.0.jpg"></div><h2 class="red">Mobile device management aims to get it right.</h2>
<p>From the enterprise IT perspective, the transition from managing PCs to managing mobile devices (phones and tablets) is both a blessing and a curse. The faster that IT can get out of managing PCs, the better. The core challenge is that in the modern threat environment, it has become essentially impossible to maintain the integrity of a PC over time. Technical challenges, or even impossibility, mean that 2015 could literally see pressure to reduce PCs in use.</p>

<p>If you doubt this, consider <a href="http://recode.net/tag/sony-hack/">the Sony breach</a> and the potential impact it will have on the view of traditionally architected computing. The rise of tablets for productivity is, therefore, a blessing. Over time, any device in widespread use is eventually a target. Therefore, mobile presents the same risk as the bad actors find new techniques to exploit mobile. The curse, and therefore the opportunity, is that our industry has not yet created the right model for mobile device management. We have MDM, sandboxing and user profiles. All of these are so far not entirely well-received by users, and most IT feels they are not yet there, but for the wrong reasons. IT should not feel the need to reintroduce the PC approach to device security (stateful, log-on scripts, arbitrary code inserted all over the device, etc.).</p>

<p>This leads to a lot of opportunity in a critical area for 2015. First, a golden rule is required: Do not impact the performance (battery life, connectivity) or usability of the device. It isn&rsquo;t more secure for the company to issue two phones &mdash; one the person wants to use, and the other they have to use. Like any such solution, people will simply work around the limitation or postpone work as long as possible. This dynamic is what causes people to travel with iPads and leave the laptop at home (along with weight, chargers, two-factor readers and more).</p>

<p>The best bet is to avoid using or emphasizing management solutions that work better on Android, simply because Android allows more hooks and invasive software in the OS. That&rsquo;s quite typical in the broad MDM/security space right now and is quite counterintuitive. The existence of this level of flexibility enabling more control is itself a potential for security challenges, and the invasive approach to management will almost certainly impact performance, compatibility and usability just as such solutions have on PCs. As tempting as it is, it is neither viable nor more secure long term. Many are frustrated by the lack of iOS &ldquo;management,&rdquo; yet at the same time one would be hard-pressed to argue that the full Android stack is more secure. There will be an explosion in enterprise-managed mobile devices this year, especially as tablets are deployed to replace PCs in scenarios, and with that, a big opportunity for startups to get mobile management right.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6455541"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6455541/2015_balls_sergiu-ungureanu.0.jpg"></div><h2 class="red">Hybrid cloud ROI isn&rsquo;t there, and the complexity is huge.</h2>
<p>In times of great change, pragmatists eager to adopt technologies crossing the chasm may choose to seek solutions that bridge the old and new ways of doing things. For cloud computing, the two methods seeing a lot of attention are to virtualize an existing data center, or to architect what is known as a hybrid cloud or hybrid public/private (some mixture of data center and cloud).</p>

<p>History clearly shows that betting on bridge solutions is the fastest way to slow down your efforts and build technical debt that reduces ROI in both the short- and long-term. The reason should be apparent, which is that the architecture that represents the new solution is substantially different &mdash; so different, in fact, that to connect old and new means your architectural and engineering efforts will be spent on the seam rather than the functionality. There&rsquo;s an incredibly strong desire to get more out of existing investments or to find rationale for requiring use of existing implementations, but practically speaking, efforts in that direction will feel good for a short while, and then will leave the product or organization further behind.</p>

<p>As an enterprise, the pragmatic thing to do is go public cloud and operate existing infrastructure as legacy, without trying to sprinkle cloud on it or spend energy trying to deeply integrate with a cloud solution. The transition to client-server, GUI or Web all provide ample evidence in failed bridge solutions, a long tail of &ldquo;wish we hadn&rsquo;t done that&rdquo; and few successes worth the effort. As a startup, it will be tempting to work to land customers who will pay you to be a bridge, but that will only serve to keep you behind your competitors who are skipping a hybrid solution. This is a big bet to make in 2015, and one that will be the subject of many debates.</p>
<p><a href="https://recodetech.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/20015-android-ios.jpg"><img src="https://recodetech.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/20015-android-ios.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="248" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-109854"></a></p><h2 class="red">Cross-platform really (still) won&rsquo;t work.</h2>
<p>It has been quite a year for those who had to decide whether to build for iOS first or Android first. At the start of 2014, the conventional wisdom shifted to &ldquo;Android First,&rdquo; though this never got beyond a discussion with most startups. With the release of Android &ldquo;L&rdquo; and iOS 8, the divergence in platform strategy is clear, and that reinforced my view of the downsides of cross-platform. My view was, and remains, that cross-platform is a losing proposition. It has really never worked in our industry except as an objection-handler. Even today, almost no software is a reasonable combination of cross-platform, consistent with the native platform, and equally &ldquo;good&rdquo; across platforms.</p>

<p>As we start 2015 it is abundantly clear that the right approach is to focus on platform optimized/exploitive apps, leading with iOS and with a parallel and synchronized team on Android. Android fragmentation is technically real, but lost in the debate is the reality that the highly fragmented low-end phones also almost never acquire apps nor do they represent the full Google stack of platform services. So the strategy is to focus on flagship Android, such as Nexus, Samsung and Moto (though one must note that the delay there of &ldquo;L&rdquo; was more than a month even on Moto) or to focus on a distribution of Android from a specific OEM that has some critical mass, and is aimed at customers who will actively acquire apps.</p>

<p>To be clear, we are in a fully sustainable two-ecosystem world. But given the current state of engagement, platform readiness and devices, 2015 will see innovation first and best on iOS. If you&rsquo;re building your app and working on core code to share, one should be cautious how that goal ends up defining your engineering strategy. Typically, once core code is in place, it selects for tools and languages as well as overall abstractions, and what system services are used. These have a tendency to block platform-native innovation, or to constrain where code goes. Those prove to be limitations, as platforms further evolve and as your feature set expands. The strategy for cross-platform apps also applies to cross-platform cloud. Trying to abstract yourself away from a cloud platform will further complicate your cloud strategy, not simplify it. The proof points and experience are exactly the same as on the client.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6455543"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6455543/2015_security_mmaxer.0.jpg"></div><h2 class="red">Massive security breaches challenge the enterprise platform.</h2>
<p>2014 will go down as the &ldquo;year of the massive security breach.&rdquo; Target, eBay, J.P. Morgan, Home Depot, Nieman Marcus, P.F. Chang&rsquo;s, Michaels, Goodwill and, finally, Sony were just some of the major breaches this year. This next year will be defined by how enterprises respond to the breach.</p>

<p>First, the biggest risks are endpoints. Endpoints as defined by today&rsquo;s technology are likely vulnerable in just about all circumstances, and show no signs of abating. Second, the on-prem data-center infrastructure suffers this same limitation. Together, the two make for a very challenging situation. The reason is not because today&rsquo;s infrastructure is poorly designed or managed, but because of the combination of an architecture designed for another era and a sophistication level of nation-state opponents that exceeds IT&rsquo;s ability to detect, isolate and remediate. As fatalistic as it sounds, this is a new world. Former DHS Secretary Tom Ridge said in an interview, &ldquo;[T]here are two types of companies: Those that know they have been hacked by a foreign government and those that have been hacked and don&rsquo;t know it yet.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The challenge for 2015 in this year of adapting to new technologies is managing through the change. The good news is that there are tools and approaches that can make a huge difference. This post picked many trends that taken together are about this theme of securing a modern enterprise. If you use public cloud services on next-generation platforms you aren&rsquo;t guaranteed security, but it is highly likely that the team has assembled more talent and has an existential focus on security that is very difficult for most enterprises to duplicate. If you use cloud services rather than local or LAN storage for documents, not only do you gain many features, but you gain a level of security you otherwise lack. Not only is this counterintuitive, it is challenging to internalize on many dimensions. It is also the only line of sight to a solution.</p>

<p>As endpoints, the combination of a modern mobile OS and apps is a new level of security and quality. The most innovative and forward-looking solutions in security will be found in startups taking new approaches to these challenges. Even looking at basics, deploying enterprise-wide single-sign-on with mobile-phone-based two-factor would be a substantial and immediate win that accrues to both legacy solutions and cloud solutions.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6455545"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6455545/2015-robot.0.jpg"></div><h2 class="red">Technologies to watch in 2015</h2>
<p>Above represents some challenges in the extreme, but also a huge opportunity to cross the chasm into a mobile and cloud-centric company or enterprise. Even with all that is going on to get that work done, this will also be a year where some new technologies will make their appearance or begin to wind their way through early adopters. The following are just some technologies I will be watching for (particularly at the Consumer Electronics Show in January):</p>

<p><strong>Beacon.</strong> To some, beacon is still a solution searching for a problem, but I think we are on the cusp of some incredibly innovative solutions. I have been playing with beacons and encourage startups that have any potential to use location to do the same. In terms of enterprise productivity, beacons plus a conference room or auditorium is one area where some incredibly innovative tools can be developed.</p>

<p><strong>4K and beyond.</strong> Moore&rsquo;s law applied to pixels has been incredible. Apple&rsquo;s 5K iMac topped off a year where we saw 4K displays for hundreds of dollars. In mobile, pixel density will increase (to the degree that battery life, OS and hardware can keep up) and for desktop and wall, screen size will continue to increase. Wall-sized displays, wireless transmission and hopefully touch will introduce a whole new range of potential solutions for collaboration, signage and education.</p>

<p><strong>Tablet keyboards.</strong> I am definitely biased in this regard, but I am looking forward to seeing a strong combination of tablets, keyboards and mobile OS enhancements. If you&rsquo;re developing tablet apps, I&rsquo;d make sure you&rsquo;re testing them out with keyboards, as well. The idea that a laptop clamshell form factor can be a mobile OS is going to be normal by the end of the year. The need to convert between &ldquo;tablet mode&rdquo; and &ldquo;laptop mode&rdquo; isn&rsquo;t a critical feature for productivity, especially for large screen size. Physical keys will define a clamshell, and make converting to a &ldquo;tablet&rdquo; awkward. Innovative touch-based covers could make a resurgence for smaller tablet form factors.</p>

<p><strong>Payments.</strong> Apple Pay arrived in 2014 and will have a huge impact on how we view payments. Yet the feature set and usage are still maturing. The transformation of payments will take a long time but happen much faster than many think or hope. I am optimistic about traditional bank accounts, credit cards, currencies all being transformed by the block chain and mobile. Because of the immense infrastructure in the developed world, it is likely the developing world will be leaders in payment and banking.</p>

<p><strong>APIs.</strong> One of the most interesting differentiators of cloud services is the way APIs are offered and consumed. Every cloud service offers APIs that are easily consumed at the right abstraction levels. In the old days, a client-server API would look like SQL tables. Today, this same API works the way you think about developing custom apps, time to solution is greatly reduced, and integration with other services is straightforward. I&rsquo;ll be on the lookout for services with cool APIs and services that take advantage of APIs used by other services.</p>

<p><strong>Machine-learning services.</strong> Artificial intelligence has always been five years away. I can safely say that has been the case at least for my entire programming lifetime, starting with, &ldquo;Would you like to play a game?&rdquo; Things have changed dramatically over the past year. We now see ML as a service, even from IBM. The ability to easily get to large corpora and to efficiently compute training data in cloud-scale servers is a gift. While it is likely that everything will be marketed using ML terms, the real win will be for those building products to just use the services and deliver customer benefit from them. I&rsquo;m keeping an eye on opportunities for machine learning to improve products.</p>

<p><strong>On-demand.</strong> On-demand is redefining our economy. In many places, a few people still view on-demand as a &ldquo;spoiled San Francisco&rdquo; thing. As you think about it, on-demand and same-day delivery bring a new level of efficiency, reduction in traffic, pollution, congestion, infrastructure and more. It is one of those things that is totally counterintuitive until you experience it, and until you start to think about the true costs of consumer-facing storefronts and supply chain. On-demand will be viewed as a macro-efficient necessity, not a super-luxury convenience.</p>

<p>From the coffee shop to the boardroom, 2015 will be a year of big leaps for everyone, as we tap into the new normal and execute on a foundation of new services, new paradigms and new platforms.</p>
<div class="chorus-asset" data-chorus-asset-id="6455547"><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6455547/2014_2015_sand_ellensmile.0.jpg"></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p><em>Steven Sinofsky is a board partner at </em><a href="http://a16z.com/"><em>Andreessen Horowitz</em></a><em>, an adviser at Box Inc., and an executive in residence at Harvard Business School. He serves on the boards of Local Motion, Tanium and Product Hunt. Follow him </em><a href="http://twitter.com/stevesi"><em>@stevesi</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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			<author>
				<name>Steven Sinofsky</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Fostering a Better Work Environment for Women]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2014/10/10/11631804/fostering-a-better-work-environment-for-women" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2014/10/10/11631804/fostering-a-better-work-environment-for-women</id>
			<updated>2019-03-06T05:54:45-05:00</updated>
			<published>2014-10-10T16:34:59-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Big Tech" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Microsoft" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Recently, frequent Re/code contributor Steven Sinofsky was having a Twitter exchange with CNBC on-air editor Jon Fortt about &#8220;speaking up&#8221; in the workplace. Sinofsky was about to post this essay on the subject when discussion emerged yesterday over Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella&#8217;s remarks at the Grace Hopper Celebration of Women in Computing, being held in [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p><em>Recently, frequent <strong>Re/code</strong> contributor Steven Sinofsky was having a Twitter exchange with CNBC on-air editor Jon Fortt about &ldquo;speaking up&rdquo; in the workplace. Sinofsky was about to post this essay on the subject when </em><a href="http://recode.net/2014/10/09/open-mouth-insert-foot-microsoft-ceo-tells-women-techies-to-trust-karma-on-pay-inequity/"><em>discussion emerged</em></a><em> yesterday over Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella&rsquo;s remarks at the </em><a href="http://gracehopper.org"><em>Grace Hopper Celebration of Women in Computing</em></a><em>, being held in Arizona.</em></p>
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<p>Hardly a week goes by where we fail to see further evidence of the challenges women face in the workplace, especially in our technology industry. I have been reflecting on my own efforts as a manager, and which actions have had positive results. There are actions that colleagues &mdash; particularly managers who are men &mdash; could take to foster a better environment to hire, support and promote a diverse team, especially with respect to women.</p>

<p>We continue to see more women in leadership and management roles in technology companies, but we know that the majority of those roles are inhabited by men today. While all managers can do more to be more inclusive for all people, this post has suggestions for actions that male managers can easily take today to create an environment more supportive of women on the team.</p>

<p>The following is a set of &ldquo;everyday&rdquo; things you can do, starting immediately. They are easy. They almost certainly require a behavior change. They will make a difference &mdash; I know they did for me.</p>

<p>These actions, however, are not a complete solution to the broader challenge, which is important to emphasize. There is amazing work going on, and much more and new amazing work is needed.</p>

<p><strong>Know the women on your team.</strong> Seems obvious, right? When you have a startup, you know every hire. When a team is very large, it becomes impossible. But most of us are in the middle of that spectrum. It is important that, as a manager, you make an extra effort to know the women on your team. What are they working on, and are they set up for maximum potential success? Do they have the right support/mentoring opportunities? Are the work group and management environments functioning as they need to? Why or why not?</p>

<p>It is too easy for you to let the internal network or organization dictate whom you interact with. If more women are in part of the team that you don&rsquo;t see as much, or are at a different spot in the organization that you don&rsquo;t interact with often, then you won&rsquo;t get to meet with them by &ldquo;accident,&rdquo; so you have to make an extra effort. In most tech organizations, there are fewer women than men (and fewer in leadership), so you want to be deliberate in making sure you put in the extra effort to meet them.</p>

<p><strong>Measure performance on achieving goals, not on heroic work.</strong> Again, this concept probably sounds obvious. It is always the case that you want people to set goals and achieve them. One pattern I observed in the early days of Microsoft (when it was decidedly male) was how we would tend to reward the behavior pattern of &ldquo;sign up for more than you can do, scramble at the end to get some of everything done, and finish up during final testing, long after things should have been done.&rdquo; This doesn&rsquo;t work well, even though we continued to reinforce this pattern. Why? Is this an issue for women on the team? While women can just as easily demonstrate this goal/achievement pattern, they more frequently demonstrate the pattern of signing up for the amount of work they can do, and doing it. Crazy, I know. To some this looks like sandbagging. To others, it looks simply like &ldquo;promise and deliver.&rdquo; I learned this from the first woman development manager (from the &rsquo;80s) that I worked with. That&rsquo;s why &ldquo;promise and deliver&rdquo; was always how we ran our teams.</p>

<p><strong>Invite women to lead team meetings, not just to do the demos or act in support.</strong> When you have a big team meeting or company event, you need to make sure those presenting represent the full diversity of the team. When you plan on this, don&rsquo;t force the issue, and don&rsquo;t just default to the org chart. Find a natural way to be representative and inclusive and not have obvious token representation. It isn&rsquo;t so difficult. Why? A really bad thing you can do is have the women on the team play a support or secondary role to the main event or speaker. In tech, &ldquo;doing the demo&rdquo; is a role like that. Not participating in Q&amp;A, for example, is the wrong signal. Doing just the introduction sends the wrong message. I made a mistake like this once in 1994 and really never lived it down. (I asked a woman on the team to draw the door prize at a user group meeting &mdash; good grief, what was I thinking?)</p>

<p><strong>Ask the opinion of women in a meeting, no matter where they are sitting.</strong> Good managers always solicit opinions from other people in the room. If the room is filled with people who have no problem raising their voice or interrupting others, then people who don&rsquo;t exhibit those behaviors won&rsquo;t be heard. Keep in mind that the people in the room demonstrating those traits are also probably not listening all that well. So when you are running a meeting, make it a point to proactively seek out the opinions of those who were just listening. Why? Again, any person can exhibit any behavior, but far more frequently, the men in the room are doing the talking and interrupting, and the women are not. So if you want to hear the opinion of the women in the room, make sure you stop to do so.</p>

<p><strong>Hire, promote and mentor women.</strong> This sounds so obvious. Your role as a manager is to lead at these things. How often have you asked recruiting to deliberately focus on hiring women for the team? Have you given them feedback on candidate slates or interview loops? How often have you personally declined the opportunity to mentor a man so you can allocate that same time to mentor a woman (everyone has finite time &mdash; how are you spending your time)? When meeting with other managers about promotions or new assignments, have you been the one to be proactive in support of women, or to hold off until there is more diversity in potential candidates? There&rsquo;s risk in all of these that you will &ldquo;lose&rdquo; good candidates or frustrate some internally, but you do have to start somewhere. Are you? Why? Because this is the heart of the issue, and no matter what anyone says, you can do these things now.</p>

<p><strong>Talk to everyone in the hallway and lunchroom, not just to people like you.</strong> Andy Grove was among the pioneers of managing by walking the hallways. The interesting thing is, who do you talk to when you walk the hallways? You should be deliberate. It is natural for everyone to talk to people they have some connection to or similarity to beyond the obvious (same team). Whether that is college, kids, hobbies, movies, TV, sports, or even which part of the food line you visit, these all contribute to the natural flow of people. Break your own patterns. Why? Do this because it might not come naturally to you, and because it is easy to do, and because it matters. There&rsquo;s a natural tendency for like to seek out like. As a manager, you should do more than that. If all your conversations in the hallway are about &ldquo;man sports&rdquo; and &ldquo;man hobbies&rdquo; with other men, and people hear those, you&rsquo;ll only reinforce stereotypes. Instead, make it a point to talk to women on the team in these spontaneous conversations.</p>

<p><strong>Obtain feedback deliberately.</strong> All managers want and ask for feedback, but how and when you ask for feedback is just as important. Ask for feedback in 1:1 hallway conversations and direct email, for example, not just with an &ldquo;any feedback?&rdquo; throwaway line right at the end of a meeting or event. Why? A non-zero set of people are reluctant to share feedback in front of a group or right away. Some might believe that their feedback is unique to their situation, or that offering the feedback might single them out in a negative way. Similarly, as above, some prefer to reflect and synthesize before giving what might be visceral or of-the-moment feedback.</p>

<p>These are just a few things from my own experience that I&rsquo;ve worked on over the years. I wasn&rsquo;t always great at these, and certainly the organizations that I managed and was accountable for were far from what they needed to be. I can say that I was deliberate about these behaviors and actions. It is behaviors like these that are necessary to address the inequalities in the workplace, though not sufficient.</p>
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<p><em>Former Microsoft executive Steven Sinofsky is a board partner at </em><a href="http://a16z.com/"><em>Andreessen Horowitz</em></a><em>, an adviser at Box Inc., and an executive in residence at Harvard Business School. Follow him </em><a href="http://twitter.com/stevesi"><em>@stevesi</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Going Where the Money Isn&#8217;t: Wi-Fi for South African Townships]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2014/7/29/11629240/going-where-the-money-isnt-wi-fi-for-south-african-townships" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2014/7/29/11629240/going-where-the-money-isnt-wi-fi-for-south-african-townships</id>
			<updated>2019-03-06T05:57:09-05:00</updated>
			<published>2014-07-29T06:00:08-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Note from the author: For the past 10 years or so, I&#8217;ve been spending time informally in Africa, where I have a chance to visit with government officials, non-government organizations and residents of towns, settlements and cities. This is part two of an occasional series; in my previous post, I wrote about disrupting payments, Africa [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<blockquote class="disclaimer"><p><em>Note from the author</em>: For the past 10 years or so, I&rsquo;ve been spending time informally in Africa, where I have a chance to visit with government officials, non-government organizations and residents of towns, settlements and cities. This is part two of an occasional series; in my previous post, I wrote about <a href="http://recode.net/2014/07/24/disrupting-payments-africa-style/">disrupting payments, Africa style</a>.</p></blockquote>
<p>Spending time in Africa, one is always awestruck. The continent has so much to offer, from sands to rain forests, from apes to zebras, from Afrikaans to Zulu. More than 1.1 billion people, 53 countries and at least 2,000 different spoken languages make for amazing diversity and energy.</p>

<p>Yet even while spending just a little time, you quickly see the economic challenges faced by many &mdash; slums, townships, settlements and the poverty they represent are seen too frequently. The contrast with the developing world is immense. As a visitor, you&rsquo;re not particularly surprised to find the difficulties in staying connected to wireless services that you&rsquo;ve become reliant upon.</p>

<p>We hear about the mobile revolution in Africa all the time. Today, this is a revolution in voice and text on feature phones and increasingly on smartphones, phablets and small tablets. Smartphones are making a rapid rise in use, if for no other reason than they have become inexpensive and ubiquitous on the world stage, and also thanks, in part, to reselling of used phones from developed markets.</p>

<p>But keeping smartphones connected to the Internet is straining the spectrum in most countries, and is certainly straining the connectivity infrastructure. Africa, for the most part, will &ldquo;skip over&rdquo; PCs, as hundreds of millions of people connect to the Internet exclusively by phones and tablets. But there&rsquo;s an acute need for improved connectivity.</p>

<p>The problem is that, even in the most developed areas of Africa, the deployment of strong and fast 3G and 4G coverage is lagging, and the capital that is available will flow to build out areas where there are paying customers. That means that the outlying areas, where a lot of people live, will continue to be underserved for quite some time.</p>

<p>Alan Knott-Craig, an experienced South African entrepreneur who is setting out to bring connectivity via Wi-Fi across his homeland, knows that Internet access is transformative to those in slums and townships. His previous company, <a href="http://get.mxit.com/">Mxit</a>, where he was CEO, developed a wildly popular social network for feature phones. It delivered a vast array of services, from education to community to commerce, and is in use by tens of millions.</p>

<p>Given the challenges of connectivity in Africa, you often find yourself searching for a Wi-Fi connection for any substantial browsing or app usage. The best case &mdash; except for a couple of markets and capital cities &mdash; is that you will get a strong 3G and occasional 4G that is highly dependent on carrier and location. It is not uncommon for folks to have smartphones that are used for voice and text when on the network, and apps that are used only when there is Wi-Fi. It&rsquo;s not just a way to save money or avoid your data cap &mdash; Wi-Fi is a necessity.</p>
<h4 class="red">&ldquo;Going where the money isn&rsquo;t&rdquo;</h4>
<p>One can imagine there&rsquo;s a big business to be had building out the Wi-Fi hotspot infrastructure in the country. Knott-Craig recognized this as he began to explore how to bring connectivity to more people.</p>

<p>Having grown up in South Africa and deeply committed to both the social and business needs of the country, Knott-Craig has also dedicated his businesses to those who are least well served and would benefit the most. Over the past 20 years, the improvements in service delivery to the slums and townships of South Africa have improved immensely, reducing what once seemed like an insurmountable gap. While there is clearly a long way to go, progress is being made.</p>

<p>The transformation that mobile is bringing to townships is almost beyond words to those who are deeply familiar with the challenges. Talking and texting with family and friends are great and valuable. A mobile phone brings empowerment and identity (a phone number is the most reliable form of identity for many) in ways that no other service has been able to. Access to information, education and community all come from mobile phones. Mobile is a massive accelerator when it comes to closing economic divides.</p>

<p>All too often in business, the path is to build a business around where the money is. Knott-Craig&rsquo;s deep experience in mobile communications told him that the major carriers will address connectivity in the cities and where there is already money. So, in his words, he set out to improve mobile connectivity by &ldquo;going where the money isn&rsquo;t.&rdquo;</p>

<p>It was obvious to Alan that setting up Wi-Fi access would be transformative. The question was really how to go about it.</p>
<h4 class="red">Building bridges</h4>
<p>Time and again, one lesson from philanthropy is that the solutions that work and endure are the ones that enroll the local community. Services that are created by partnerships between the residents of townships, the government and business are the only way to build sustainable programs. The implication is that rolling into town with a bunch of access points and Internet access sounds like a good idea &mdash; who wouldn&rsquo;t want connectivity? &mdash; but in practice would be met with resistance from all sides.</p>

<p>Thinking about the parties involved, Knott-Craig created <a href="http://projectisizwe.org/">Project Isizwe</a> &mdash; helping to deliver Wi-Fi to townships on behalf of municipalities. &ldquo;Isizwe&rdquo; is <a href="http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xhosa_language">Xhosa</a> for &ldquo;nation,&rdquo; &ldquo;tribe&rdquo; or &ldquo;people.&rdquo;</p>

<p>In the townships, people pay for Internet access by the minute, by the text and by the megabyte. Rolling out Wi-Fi needed to fit within this model, and not create yet another service to buy. So the first hurdle to address would be to find a way to piggyback on that existing payment infrastructure.</p>

<p>To do this, Knott-Craig worked with carriers in a very smart way. Carriers want their customers on the Internet, and in fact would love to offload customers to Wi-Fi when available. While they can do this in densely populated urban areas where access points can be set up, townships pose a very different environmental challenge, discussed below.</p>

<p>Given the carriers&rsquo; openness to offloading customers to Wi-Fi, the project devised a solution based on the latest IEEE standards for automatically signing on to available hotspots (something that we wish we would experience in practice in the U.S.). A customer of one of the major carriers, MTN for example, would initiate a connection to the Isizwe network, and from then on would automatically authenticate and connect using the mobile number and prepaid megabytes, just as though the Wi-Fi were a WWAN connection.</p>

<p>This &ldquo;Hotspot 2.0&rdquo; implementation is amazingly friendly and easy to use. It removes the huge barrier to using Wi-Fi that most experience (the dreaded sign-on page), and that in turn makes the carriers very happy. Because of the value to the carriers, Knott-Craig is working to establish this same billing relationship across carriers, so this works no matter who provides your service.</p>

<p>Of course this doesn&rsquo;t solve the problem of where the bandwidth comes from in the first place. Since Knott-Craig is all about building bridges and enrolling support across the community, he created unique opportunities for those that already have unused bandwidth to be part of the solution.</p>

<p>Whether it is large corporations or the carriers themselves, Project Isizwe created a wholesale pool of bandwidth by either purchasing outright or using donated bandwidth to create capacity. The donated bandwidth provides a tax deduction benefit at the same time. Everyone wins. Interestingly, the donated bandwidth makes use of off-peak capacity, which is exactly when people in the townships want to spend time on the Internet anyway.</p>
<h4 class="red">Government</h4>
<p>With demand and supply established, the next step is to enroll the government. Here again, the team&rsquo;s experience in working with local officials comes into play.</p>

<p>As with any market around the world, you can&rsquo;t just put up public-use infrastructure on public land and start to use it. The same thing is true in the townships of South Africa. In fact, one could imagine an outright rejection of providing this sort of service from a private organization, simply because it competes with the service delivery the government provides.</p>

<p>In addition, the cost factor is always an issue. Too many programs for townships start out free, but end up costing the government money (money they don&rsquo;t have) over time. It isn&rsquo;t enough to provide the capital equipment and ask the government to provide operational costs, or vice versa. Project Isizwe is set up to ensure that public free Wi-Fi networks are a sustainable model, but needed government support to do so.</p>

<p>With the enrollment of the carriers and community support, bringing along the government required catering to their needs, as well. One of the biggest challenges in the townships is the rough-and-tumble politics &mdash; not unlike local politics in American cities. The challenge that elected officials have is getting their voice heard. Without regular television coverage, and with sporadic or limited print coverage, the Internet has the potential to be a way for the government to reach citizens.</p>

<p>As part of the offering, Knott-Craig and his team devised a platform for elected officials to air their point of view through &ldquo;over the top&rdquo; means. Essentially, part of the Wi-Fi service provides access to a public-service &ldquo;station&rdquo; filled with information directly from governmental service providers. Because of the nature of the technology, these streams can be cached and provided at an ultra-low cost.</p>

<p>The bottom line for government is that they are in the business of providing basic services for the community. Providing Internet access only adds to the menu of services, including water, electrical, sanitation, police, fire and more. Doing so without a massive new public program of infrastructure is a huge part of what Isizwe did to win over those officials.</p>
<h4 class="red">Access points</h4>
<p>With all the parties enrolled, there still needs to be some technology. It should come as no surprise that setting up access points in townships poses some unique challenges: Physical security, long-haul connectivity and power need to be solved.</p>

<p>One of the neat things about the tech startup ecosystem in South Africa is the ability to draw on resources unique to the country. The buildup of military and security technology, particularly in Pretoria, created an ecosystem of companies and talent well-suited to the task. Given the decline of these industries, it turns out that these resources are now readily available to support new private-sector work.</p>

<p>First up was building out the access points themselves. Unlike a coffee shop, where you would just connect an access point to a cable modem and hide it above a ceiling tile, townships have other challenges. Most of the access points are located high up in secured infrastructure, such as water towers. These locations also have reliable power and are already monitored for security.</p>

<p>The access points are secured in custom-designed enclosures, and use networking equipment sourced from Silicon Valley companies <a href="http://www.ruckuswireless.com/">Ruckus Wireless</a> and <a href="http://www.ubnt.com/">Ubiquiti Networks</a>, which implement hotspots around the world. This enclosure design and build was done by experienced steel-manufacturing plants in Pretoria. In addition, these enclosures provide two-way security cameras with night vision to monitor things.</p>

<p>This provided for a fun moment the first time someone signed on. A resident had been waiting for the Wi-Fi and was hanging out right below the tower. As soon as they signed on for the first time, back at the operations center they could see this on the dashboard, as well as the camera, and used the two-way loudspeaker to ask, &ldquo;So how do you like the Wi-Fi?&rdquo; which was quite a surprise to a guy just checking football scores on his mobile phone.</p>

<p>Along with using engineers from Pretoria to design the enclosure, Isizwe also employed former military engineers to go on-site to install the access points. This work involved two high-risk activities. First, these men needed to climb up some pretty tall structures and install something not previously catered for. Their skills as linemen and soldiers helped here.</p>

<p>More importantly, these were mostly Afrikaner white men venturing into the heart of black townships to do this work. Even though South Africa is years into an integrated and equality-based society, the old emotions are still there, just as has been seen in many other societies.</p>

<p>This would be potentially emotionally charged for these Afrikaners in particular. No only were there no incidents, but the technicians were welcomed with open arms, given the work that they were doing &mdash; &ldquo;We are here to bring you Wi-Fi&rdquo; &mdash; turns out to make it easy to put aside any (wrongly) preconceived notions. In fact, after the job, the installers were quite emotional about how life-changing the experience was for them to go into the townships for the first time and to do good work there.</p>

<p>The absence of underground cabling presents the challenge of getting these access points on the Internet in the first place. To accomplish this, each access point uses a microwave relay to connect back up to a central location, which is then connected over a landline. This is a huge advantage over most Wi-Fi on the African continent, which is generally a high-gain 3G WWAN connection that gets shared over local Wi-Fi.</p>
<h4 class="red">Bytes flowing</h4>
<p>The service is up and running today as a 1.0 version, in which Wi-Fi is free but limited to 250 megabytes; the billing infrastructure is just a few months away, which will enable pay-as-you-go usage of megabytes. The service will be free when there is capacity going unused.</p>

<p>The cost efficacy of the system is incredible, and that is passed along to individual users. Wi-Fi is provided at about 15 cents (ZAR cents) per gigabyte, which compares to more than 80 cents per megabyte for spotty 3G. That is highly affordable for the target customers.</p>

<p>Because of the limits of physics of Wi-Fi, the system is not set up to allow mass streaming of football, which is in high demand. Mechanisms are in place to create what amounts to over-the-top broadcast by using fixed locations within the community.</p>

<p>The most popular services being accessed are short videos on YouTube, music, news, employment information and educational services like <a href="https://www.khanacademy.org/">Khan Academy</a> and Wikipedia. The generation growing up in the townships is even more committed to education, so it is no surprise to see such a focus. Another important set of services being accessed are those for faith and religion, particularly Christian gospel content.</p>

<p>The numbers are incredible and growing rapidly, as the Isizwe scales to even more townships. In the middle of the afternoon (when people are at school and working), we pulled up the dashboard and saw some stats:</p>
<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>609 people were online right at that moment.</li><li>4,455 people had already used the service that day.</li><li>304 people had already reached their daily limit that day.</li><li>More than 70,000 unique users since the system went online with 1.0 in November 2013.</li><li>208GB transferred since going online</li><li>Most all of the mobile traffic is Android, along with the newest Asha phones from Nokia. Recycled iPhones from the developed market also make a showing.</li></ul>
<p>In terms of physical infrastructure required, it takes about 200 access points to cover a densely populated area of one million residents. This allows about 200,000 simultaneous users overall, with about 50-500 users per access point, depending on usage and congestion.</p>
<h4 class="red">Growing</h4>
<p>We talk all the time about the transformational nature of mobile connectivity, and many in the U.S. are deeply committed to getting people connected all around the world. Project Isizwe is an incredible example of the local innovation required to build products and services to deliver on those desires.</p>

<p>The public/private/community partnerships that are the hallmark of Isizwe will scale to many townships across South Africa. Building on this base, there are many exciting information-based services that can be provided. Things are just getting started.</p>

<p><em>Steven Sinofsky is a board partner at </em><a href="http://a16z.com/"><em>Andreessen Horowitz</em></a><em>, an adviser at Box Inc., and an executive in residence at Harvard Business School. Follow him </em><a href="http://twitter.com/stevesi"><em>@stevesi</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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			<author>
				<name>Steven Sinofsky</name>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Disrupting Payments, Africa Style]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2014/7/24/11629110/disrupting-payments-africa-style" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2014/7/24/11629110/disrupting-payments-africa-style</id>
			<updated>2019-03-06T05:50:46-05:00</updated>
			<published>2014-07-24T06:00:00-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Big Tech" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Bitcoin" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Business &amp; Finance" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Commerce" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Lyft" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Money" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Square" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Note from the author: For the past 10 years or so, I&#8217;ve been spending time informally in Africa, where I have a chance to visit with government officials, non-government organizations, and residents of towns, settlements and cities. In the next post, I&#8217;ll talk about free Wi-Fi in South Africa slums. Spending time in the developing [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<blockquote class="disclaimer"><p><em>Note from the author</em>: For the past 10 years or so, I&rsquo;ve been spending time informally in Africa, where I have a chance to visit with government officials, non-government organizations, and residents of towns, settlements and cities. In the next post, I&rsquo;ll talk about free Wi-Fi in South Africa slums.</p></blockquote>
<p>Spending time in the developing world, one can always marvel at the resourcefulness of people living in often extraordinarily difficult conditions. The challenges of living in many parts of the world certainly cause one to reflect on what we see from day to day. Here in the U.S., we&rsquo;re all familiar with the transformative nature of mobile phones in our lives. And for those in extreme poverty, the mobile phone has been equally, if not more, transformative.</p>

<p>One particular challenge faced by many in Africa, especially those living in fairly extreme poverty (less than $500 a year in purchase power), is dealing with money and buying things, and how the mobile phone is transforming those needs.</p>

<p>One could fill many posts with what it is like to live at such low levels of income, but suffice it to say that even when you are fortunate enough to ground your perspective in firsthand experience, it is still not possible to really internalize the challenges.</p>
<h4 class="red">Slum life</h4>
<p>Imagine living in a place where your small structure, like the one pictured below, is under constant threat of being demolished, and you run the risk of being relocated even farther away from work and family. Imagine a place where you don&rsquo;t have the means of contacting the police, even if they might show up. Imagine a place where it takes a brick-sized amount of cash to buy a new cooking pot.</p>

<p>These and untold more challenges define day-to-day life in slums, settlements and townships in developing countries in Africa, where the introduction of mobile phones has transformed a vast array of daily living tasks. Take the structure seen above, for example. It is a settlement in a vacant lot next to an office park in Harare, Zimbabwe. About 120 of these &ldquo;structs&rdquo; are occupied by about 600 people. For the most part, residents sell what they can make or cook; a small number possess some set of trade skills. Below, you can see a stand run out of one struct that sells eggs farmed on-site.</p>
<h4 class="red">Mobile phones and extreme poverty</h4>
<p>Through a Xhona-speaking interpreter, I had a chance to be part of a group (representing the government) hearing about life in the settlement. One question I got to ask was how many had mobile phones. Keeping in mind that the per capita spending power of these folks would be formally labeled &ldquo;extreme poverty,&rdquo; the answer blew me away. Nearly every adult had a mobile phone. When I asked for a show of hands, some proudly said they didn&rsquo;t bring it to the meeting.</p>

<p>Right away, you see the importance of a mobile phone when you consider the cost of the phone as a percentage of income. It is hard for us to imagine the trade-offs phone owners here are making, but in earning-power equivalence, a phone in this village is roughly what a car and its operation costs us &mdash; and we already have food, shelter and clothing in ample supply.</p>

<p>Communicating with family is a key function, because families are often separated by distance, as members go looking for work or to find a better place to live.</p>

<p>Phones are also used to call the police. Before mobile phones, there was simply no way to get the police to your home or settlement, since there are no landlines or nearby telephones. Keep in mind that most residents in these areas have no formal identification or address, and the settlements are often unofficial and unrecognized by authorities.</p>

<p>Phones are also used as an early warning system for authorities that might be on the way to evict folks, or perhaps perform some other type of inspection. The legalities of settlements and how that works are a separate topic altogether, but I won&rsquo;t go into that here.</p>

<p>Phones are used to keep track of what goods are selling where, or what goods might be needed. A network of people helps each other to maximize income from goods based on where and when they can be sold, because they are needed. Think of this as extremely local information that was previously unavailable. This is crucial, because many goods have limited shelf life and, frankly, many people produce the same goods.</p>

<p>A specific example for some people was the use of phones to monitor the supply chain for beer and alcohol. One set of people specialized in redistribution of beverages, and needed to keep tabs on events and unique needs in the community.</p>

<p>A favorite example of mine is &ldquo;queue efficiency.&rdquo; One of the many challenging aspects of life in extreme poverty is waiting &mdash; waiting on line for water, for transportation, for public services of all kinds. Phones play an important role in bringing some level of optimization to this process by sharing information on the size of queues and the quality of service available. We might think of this as Waze for lines, implemented over SMS friends and family networks.</p>

<p>Some of these uses seem straightforward, or simply cultural adaptations of what anyone with a phone would do. The fact that Africa skipped landlines is a fascinating statement about technological evolution &mdash; just as, for the most part, the continent will skip PCs in favor of smartphones, and will likely skip private ownership of transportation for shared-economy solutions (the history of Lyft is one that begins with shared rides in Zimbabwe).</p>
<h4 class="red">Skipping over traditional banking</h4>
<p>An old-economy service that Africa is likely to skip will be personal banking. In the U.S., our tech focus tends to be on China and the role that mobile payments play there with WeChat or AliPay, or more broadly on the innovation going on payments between the innovative PayPal, Square and, of course, bitcoin. In Africa, almost no one has a bank account, and definitely no credit cards. But as we saw, everyone has a mobile phone.</p>

<p>The most famous mobile banking solution in Africa is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa">M-Pesa</a> (M for mobile, pesa is Swahili for money), which started in Kenya. People there use their phones to store cash and pay for goods. Similar solutions exist in many countries. Even in a place as remote and difficult as Somaliland, you can see these at work, as I did recently.</p>

<p>Madagascar is an island-country with incredible beauty and an abundance of things not seen across Africa, including natural resources, farmable land and water, not to mention lemurs. Yet the country is incredibly poor, with a countrywide per capita GDP of $400, which puts it in the bottom 10 countries of the world. On average, people live at the extreme poverty level of $1.25 per day in purchase power. One city I visited in Madagascar is home to the <a href="http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/">UN Millennium Development Goals</a>, which is programmatically working to improve these extremely impoverished areas.</p>

<p>Yet technology is making a huge difference in lives there.</p>

<p>Madagascar has three main mobile phone carriers. These are all prepay, and penetration is extremely high, even in the most remote areas. The country is wired with mostly 2G connectivity; there is some coverage at 3G, but it is highly variable. The only common use for 3G is for Internet access using external USB modems connected to PCs (usually netbooks) and shared.</p>

<p>Most of the phones in use are feature phones, often hand-me-downs from the developed market. I&rsquo;ve even seen a few iPhone 3s. One person complained about being unable to update iOS because he has no high-speed connection for such a download (showing that people are connected to the world, just not at a high download speed). A developed-market smartphone is pretty much a feature phone here, and the cost of another network upgrade means that one is far off. People are anxious for more connectivity, but along with cost, the current state of government will make progress a bit slower than citizens would like.</p>

<p>A huge problem in this type of environment is safely dealing with money. Madagascar&rsquo;s currency trades at $1 U.S. to 2,500 <a href="http://www.xe.com/currency/mga-malagasy-ariary">Madagascar ariary</a>. When you live off of 3,000 or so a day, you&rsquo;re not going to carry around three bills, so very quickly you end up with a brick of 100 Ar notes. What to do with all those? Where can you put them? How do you keep them safe? How can you even keep them dry in a rain forest?</p>

<p>Well, along comes mobile &ldquo;banking.&rdquo; As easy as you can recharge your phone, you can add money to your stored money account. You walk up to a kiosk &mdash; there are thousands and thousands of them &mdash; and in a series of text messages with the shopkeeper, you give her money and your phone gains stored value.</p>

<p>With iOS and Android fragmentation, how would these apps work, given what must be finite dev resources? The implementation of this is all through an old-school standard called SIM Apps or <a href="http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SIM_Application_Toolkit">Sim Application Toolkit</a>.</p>

<p>This set of APIs and capability allow the installation of apps that reside on your SIM. These apps are simple menu-driven apps that look like WAP sites. They are secure and controlled by carriers. Using this framework, mobile banking has reached unprecedented usage and importance in developing markets, particularly in Africa.</p>

<p>The scenario for usage is quite simple. You charge your phone with money, just as you would with minutes. When you want to buy something, you bring up the SMS app (pictured below, on an iPhone 3 in Malagasy) and initiate a transaction. The merchant gives you a code, which you enter along with the merchant&rsquo;s identifying code. You then type in an amount, which is verified against your current balance. The merchant then receives a notification, and the transaction is complete. The whole system is safe from theft because of the connection to your mobile number, two-factor authentication and so on. There is no carrier dependency, so you can easily send/receive to any carrier, though the carrier has your balance. This isn&rsquo;t an interest-earning savings account, but rather a transaction or debit account (of course, in the U.S., few of us earn interest on demand deposits these days, anyway).</p>

<p>You can also give and receive money from individuals. This is extraordinarily important, given how there can be distance between family or even the main wage-earning in a family. The idea of sending money around to family members is an incredibly important part of the cash economy of low-income people. This market, called &ldquo;remittance,&rdquo; is estimated to be over $400 billion in developing markets alone.</p>

<p>Life is easier and safer for those using mobile banking this way. You can count on your money being safe. You don&rsquo;t need to carry around cash and worry about loss, theft, or water and weather destroying physical currency. You can easily deal with small and exact amounts. As a merchant, you don&rsquo;t have to make change. It is just better in every dimension.</p>

<p>The carriers profit by taking a percentage of the transaction, which is high in the same way that check-cashing in the U.S. is high (and credit cards, for that matter). The fee is about two percent, which I am not sure will be sustainable, given the competition between carriers. I also think it will be fascinating to see how developed-market companies like Western Union evolve to support mobile payments, as they provide integration points to the developed-market financial systems. It is not uncommon to see a Western Union representative also offering phone recharge and mobile banking services.</p>

<p>In our environment, we would see this as a convenience, like a debit card. But in Africa, it is far more secure and convenient, because you only need your phone, which you will carry with you almost all the time, just as we do in the U.S.</p>

<p>I think the most interesting point of note in this solution is how it essentially skips over banking. If we think about our own lives, and especially those of the generation entering the workforce now, banking is most decidedly archaic. The whole idea of opening an account and dealing with a level of indirection which offers very little by way of useful services &mdash; it just feels like there&rsquo;s a need for disruption. Our installed base of infrastructure makes this very difficult, but in the developing world that challenge doesn&rsquo;t exist. It isn&rsquo;t likely that most people will graduate to full-fledged banking just as we don&rsquo;t expect people to graduate from a mobile phone to a full-fledged PC.</p>

<p>It also isn&rsquo;t hard to imagine this type of mobile banking taking off first in the cash-based part of the developed world, where today people pay fees to cash checks and buy money orders, absent a bank account. The large numbers of check-cashing storefronts located near lower-income areas share much in common in some ways. One example is remittance. Many immigrants in the U.S. are the source for remittance funds going to developing markets. Seattle, for example, has one of the largest populations of Somalians outside of Northern Africa, and they routinely send funds back to their families. Today, this is a difficult process, and could be made a lot easier with a global and mobile solution.</p>
<h4 class="red">Looking forward</h4>
<p>I look forward to solutions like this for our own lives here in the U.S. We see some of this in service-by-service cases. For example, using Lyft is completely cashless. I can use PayPal at merchants like Home Depot. Obviously, we all see Square and other payment mechanisms. Each of these shares a common connection to established banking and plastic cards. That&rsquo;s where I think disruption awaits. Will this be bitcoin alone? Will someone, even a carrier, develop and scale a simple stored-value mechanism like that being used by billions of people already?</p>

<p>For myself, and no doubt for many reading this, this transformation is old hat. I&rsquo;ve seen these changes over the past decade across many countries in Africa and elsewhere. Africa isn&rsquo;t single-marketplace by any stretch. What is working in Madagascar, Kenya, Somaliland and others might not work elsewhere, or might not work for all segments of a given economy. Stay tuned for more observations from this trip.</p>

<p>It is always worth a reminder how some changes can bring about a massive difference in quality of life.</p>

<p>P.S.: What happens when you&rsquo;re forced to use high-tech 3G connectivity to do a Visa card transaction? The merchant (pictured above) goes outside in a rain forest and aims for a stronger connection for the card reader. Yikes!</p>

<p><em>Steven Sinofsky is a board partner at </em><a href="http://a16z.com/"><em>Andreessen Horowitz</em></a><em>, an adviser at Box Inc., and an executive in residence at Harvard Business School. Follow him </em><a href="http://twitter.com/stevesi"><em>@stevesi</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Auto-Autonomy: Cars Are Racing Toward Disruption]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2014/7/8/11628624/auto-autonomy-cars-are-racing-toward-disruption" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2014/7/8/11628624/auto-autonomy-cars-are-racing-toward-disruption</id>
			<updated>2019-03-06T05:50:11-05:00</updated>
			<published>2014-07-08T06:30:24-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Big Tech" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Business &amp; Finance" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Google" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Innovation" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Lyft" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Media" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Money" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Tesla" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Uber" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The auto industry, for much of the 20th century, represented American ideals. The &#8220;Big Three&#8221; represented millions employed directly, often in jobs that raised standards of living. The leaders of auto companies came to define modern management, from Alfred Sloan to the Whiz Kids. Cars and culture became intertwined. The suburban lifestyle, from malls to [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p>The auto industry, for much of the 20th century, represented American ideals. The &ldquo;<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(automobile_manufacturers)">Big Three</a>&rdquo; represented millions employed directly, often in jobs that raised standards of living. The leaders of auto companies came to define modern management, from Alfred Sloan to the Whiz Kids. Cars and culture became intertwined. The suburban lifestyle, from malls to minivans, was enabled by cars.</p>

<p>Through oil shocks, quality imports, labor challenges, urban sprawl, bankruptcies and more, the auto industry has continued to be a massive and essential part of the U.S. economy, and a huge part of growing economies.</p>

<p>That&rsquo;s what makes the disruption taking foot in automobiles even more fascinating. The rule of thumb about disruption is that you can&rsquo;t predict it while it is happening, and if you&rsquo;re the incumbent, you are hearing about disruption at every turn. That&rsquo;s why it is tricky to assert that the auto industry is being disrupted.</p>

<p>There&rsquo;s a lot of evidence building that the societal and technological underpinnings of disruption are already in place. And there&rsquo;s a mounting pile of skepticism from incumbents about new technologies. There&rsquo;s also the role of government as the agent of resistance employed by those favoring the status quo, always under the guise of safety and causation.</p>

<p>Watching the <a href="http://recode.net/2014/05/27/googles-new-self-driving-car-ditches-the-steering-wheel/">unveiling</a> of the <a href="http://recode.net/2014/05/27/a-joy-ride-in-googles-new-self-driving-clown-car-video/">self-driving car</a> at the recent <strong>Code Conference</strong> offered an opportunity to ponder many signs of change coming together, creating an opportunity to look forward at the changes disrupting the industry and how we get around.</p>

<p>Stepping back from the drama of that onstage demonstration at <strong>Code</strong>, I see five signs that, when put together, point to a major disruption of the way we think of cars and transportation. These five signs represent the first step in thinking about disruption by identifying changes in the landscape that are structural challenges for all incumbent players.</p>
<h4 class="red">Urbanization and improvement/acceptability of public transport</h4>
<p>All around the U.S. there is a renewed migration to urban centers (this is also an unstoppable force in the developing world). The major coastal cities of New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and more are seeing the population <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304830704577493032619987956">shift back to the urban centers</a> that were shunned as the Boomers settled into the newly created suburbs.</p>

<p>This re-urbanization is accompanied by significant new investment in public transportation within these urban cores. These same cities are spending more on trains, buses and bike lanes than they have in decades. Shared bikes in many cities are making it easy to get from point to point quickly and efficiently.</p>

<p>While the genesis of these projects goes back years, the improvements visible today are supporting and accelerating the ability to urbanize. Businesses incentives to locate in urban cores are on the rise. Across the country, the subsidies for the use of public transportation from employees and institutions contribute to the socialization of the use of these resources.</p>
<h4 class="red">Unbundling in-car features</h4>
<p>It might seem like a small point today, but the locus of innovation in automobile electronics is shifting from hardware to software, and from the car manufacturers to innovative companies building transportation capabilities using mobile platforms. We see the convenience of using maps on a phone with crowdsourced data for road and traffic conditions. We&rsquo;ve also seen entertainment unbundled, with the ubiquitous tablet now serving as the prime back-seat entertainer. Features that used to be original equipment or add-ons are better, more agile to change and cost less when offered through modern mobile platforms.</p>

<p>This sign has two disruptive elements. First, it is an economic challenge for auto makers who have spent enormous energy building out business and sales approaches based on car &ldquo;electronics.&rdquo; Disruption to this disrupts the economics of auto sales, especially since safety and comfort have been &ldquo;pulled&rdquo; into the assumed base price of cars.</p>

<p>Second, from a consumer or owner perspective, the familiarity and personalization of transportation comes from what is on my mobile device, not in the car, making the transition from one vehicle to another much more seamless. <a href="https://www.getlocalmotion.com/">LocalMotion</a> (Disclosure: Along with Lyft, it&rsquo;s an <a href="http://a16z.com/">a16z</a> portfolio company; I serve on its board) even unbundles the most basic car functionality of entry and ignition, by using an RFID or other means to access the car. With that come all sorts of features previously dependent on a specific car, from GPS location to repair notification &mdash; all on my mobile device.</p>
<h4 class="red">Energy sources</h4>
<p>Approximately half the oil used in the U.S. is consumed by personal vehicles. No matter how fast we find new (and potentially risky) methods to extract oil from the earth, we&rsquo;re going to run short. I have many memories from my childhood of the 1973 oil embargo and the subsequent gas lines, rationing and long-term implications of an oil-dependent nation. The U.S. has only twice briefly shaken an addiction to high-consumption vehicles (in the 1970s and between 2006-2008), and most recently, we&rsquo;ve seen a resurgence in sales of SUVs and trucks to individuals. Ironically, the competitive advantage held by U.S. auto makers, along with the high profits associated with trucks and SUVs, only further serves to cement their potential for disruption and lack of long-term interest in alternative fuels.</p>

<p>At the same time, there are software technologies advancing that can do far more than incrementally improve the design, manufacture and distribution of alternative fuel vehicles. Tesla has become a symbol of what can be done when there is a complete rethinking of how to build and drive a car. Detroit&rsquo;s reaction has been unsurprising, if not disappointing. Recently, I saw Bob Lutz, the legendary former chairman of General Motors, in an interview, still talking about range anxiety and potential safety problems of exploding batteries. I suppose you can keep being negative about every potential alternative to the direct use of fossil fuels, but doing so without putting forth any credible efforts for alternatives seems to follow the pattern of incumbents facing disruption.</p>

<p>The need for our transportation infrastructure to be powered differently is a massive disruptive force to be reckoned with.</p>
<h4 class="red">Shared ownership/ridership</h4>
<p>Owning a car is a big headache. Ironically, it is far less of a headache than it has ever been, relative to reliability and durability. My childhood memory that a trip from New York to Florida required a AAA membership and driving with a fear of a &ldquo;breakdown&rdquo; are faint memories. Modern cars, especially those manufactured in Japan and Germany, are insanely high-quality upon delivery (I recall my father keeping a list of defects in our new family car back in the 70s), and remain high-quality for thousands of miles before any service might be required.</p>

<p>But insurance, gas costs, parking costs and the incredibly poor investment represented by auto ownership has now become a headache relative to the perceived social status and convenience. A new car loses 20 percent of its value when it is driven off the lot, and for the pride of ownership, you can pay huge out-of-pocket costs beyond purchase that add up to perhaps $300 a month &mdash; more, if you pay for parking and tolls. Yet the average car in the U.S. is parked 23 hours a day, on average. It is literally crazy to own your own car.</p>

<p>With urbanization, even if you want to own your own car, you&rsquo;re not likely to have anywhere to put it. Given all of this, it is hardly shocking that there is a sea change in attitude about car ownership. Owning a car is no longer aspirational, and our nation&rsquo;s youth are even waiting longer to get a driver&rsquo;s license than at any previous time. From ZipCar or Cars2Go to Uber and Lyft, shared ownership and shared ridership are at new levels of convenience and cost.</p>

<p>The unbundling of features of cars such as keys, personalized maps and entertainment mean that I can walk up to a car, tap in and drive off comfortably. I can also summon an equally convenient ride with precise GPS location. These benefits are extended to commercial fleets of vehicles, which suffer these same inefficiencies on a microeconomic scale. You can see shared fleets of cars using sharing technology that keeps cars in use and reduces the number of cars on the road &mdash; better for the owners, better for the roads and better all around.</p>

<p>Needless to say, fewer cars is a massive disruption to the auto industry. We are also familiar that, with disruption, it is often the case that things appear at their very best before they turn for the worse, so the near-term rise in car sales (particularly SUVs and trucks) is poised to be a last major purchase cycle before folks who grew up delaying their licenses, using car- and ride sharing, and looking to their phones for transportation, are the leaders in business and communities deciding how to allocate transportation resources.</p>
<h4 class="red">Driving technology leading to driverless</h4>
<p>When Google showed off a driverless car, designed from the road up to be self-driving, there was a combination of excitement, followed by a lot of commentary about how far off the practical application will be. Even if the driverless car is 15 or more years away, it is inevitable. The signs discussed above only make the driverless car more inevitable, and each is itself an ingredient along the way.</p>

<p>Even before we see a completely redesigned car, we will see the incremental steps &mdash; just as we see in tech all the time &mdash; there will be broad adoption of driver-assist technologies in existing cars. For many, particularly incumbents, these will have the appearance of meeting the needs of the marketplace. That&rsquo;s how innovation happens. The dividends of the fundamental work done by Google and other companies on the maps, sensors, control systems and more, are leading to innovations such as the Subaru Eyesight and Mercedes Intelligent Drive &mdash; precursors to full autonomy.</p>

<p>On the commercial side, we&rsquo;re already seeing things like the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/04/business/daimler-demonstrates-a-self-driving-truck.html">Daimler autonomous truck</a>. It would not be crazy to see commercial transport move even more quickly to autonomous or hybrid &ldquo;driving,&rdquo; given the long hauls on major highways and the immense savings in fuel that could come from consistent driving patterns.</p>

<p>Once there is autonomy, it is not hard to imagine what seems like a utopian view of transportation, where you walk up to any nearby car, perhaps one you summoned via a mobile device, if needed &mdash; or even better, one that predicts that you are in need of transportation based on your routine or schedule.</p>

<p>Some individuals might own personal cars and contribute them as a shared resource to defray costs. Companies will be in the business of offering shared cars, and governments might create Divvy-Cars modeled after the urban bikes we have today. Car sharing also benefits enormously from autonomous driving. You can choose to be a car owner and have a vehicle at your disposal, benefiting from the savings that come from sharing with a broader set of folks, while never having to worry about the skill of the driver who takes advantage of your shared asset.</p>

<p>You enter the car, having had credentials verified. Your destination is known, and off you go. Not only does traffic flow more smoothly, simply because more cars are more fully utilized and able to more predictably and algorithmically traverse the roads, but you are far safer, as autonomous cars are free of driver distraction, emotion and slow reflexes. To think that humans are better than computers are at hurling thousands of pounds of metal at 60 mph seems counterintuitive at best. It will almost certainly be the case that a short time from now, actually driving a car will seem as out of place as the in-office wet bar seen on &ldquo;Mad Men.&rdquo;</p>
<h4 class="red">Rethinking end-to-end</h4>
<p>Conservatively speaking, it took about 30 years for car ownership to drive the broad changes across society &mdash; starting from the economics of owning a car (and the jobs that were created making them), to building 50,000 miles of highways (that took 35 years and $500 billion), to the development of the suburban lifestyle, and finally the rise in incomes making for one-driver/one-car (actually about 0.8 cars per licensed driver in the U.S., having peaked in 2008).</p>

<p>It could take that long until we are at the next technology peak &mdash; one described by uniformly available shared transportation, autonomous vehicles and a societal infrastructure and lifestyle to support these changes. But these changes are coming. There&rsquo;s an inevitability when you put together the signs of change &mdash; society is evolving.</p>

<p>Incumbents will take near-term approaches that have the effect of incrementally improving where we are in transportation. That&rsquo;s not a negative, but it is a reality. Cars will add improved safety tools to alert drivers who are swerving on roads. Cities will employ sensors and monitoring systems to provide more information about congestion. Technology will continue to squeeze more miles out of burning fossil fuels.</p>

<p>We shouldn&rsquo;t forget that car enthusiasts are like any tech enthusiasts, and they will continue to invest in the depth of knowledge and enjoy the experiences they have come to love (the way many Boomers enjoyed tuning up and tinkering with cars, much to my personal disinterest).</p>

<p>There&rsquo;s also the likelihood that incumbents will resist technological change. We will see leaders talk about &ldquo;range anxiety&rdquo; of alternatively powered vehicles. We will see opponents of shared assets continue to talk about the risks to public safety. We&rsquo;ll see the status quo forces of interest groups resist the infrastructure changes and spending required (just as those same forces opposed the freeways of the era we currently benefit from).</p>

<p>This is part of societal change &mdash; no one is acting in bad faith, and the give and take of making progress over these time periods and levels of investment cannot happen without differing viewpoints arriving at change in their own ways and at their own pace.</p>

<p>At each step in technology evolution, the installed base often denies the mounting evidence of improvements in the next generation. Recall that many programmers resisted protect mode, virtual memory, graphical interface and tablets. Fly-by-wire commercial aircraft were introduced by Airbus and initially played down by Boeing until they were all-in with the 777. We see drivers who have resisted automatic transmission, GPS and even cruise control, and we will see incumbents of all types resisting the full redesign of cars.</p>

<p>Perhaps the common thread in technology innovation is that it takes a new company free of constraints to truly redefine a product.</p>

<p>Cars didn&rsquo;t exist when the 20th century started. With Moore&rsquo;s law enabling a faster pace of change, it would not be surprising to see the world look just as dramatically different in half the time. In historical terms, the car-ification of the U.S. took a blink of an eye. The 2.0 version has the potential to change even faster.</p>

<p>And as you get your mind wrapped around the changes to your family car and local taxi service, start to consider how these exact changes will really impact public transportation, roads, airplanes, trains and more.</p>

<p>That&rsquo;s what happens with disruption &mdash; while it is happening, it seems like it is going slowly. Then all of a sudden things are different.</p>

<p><em>Steven Sinofsky is a board partner at </em><a href="http://a16z.com/"><em>Andreessen Horowitz</em></a><em>, an adviser at Box Inc., and an executive in residence at Harvard Business School. Follow him </em><a href="http://twitter.com/stevesi"><em>@stevesi</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Steven Sinofsky</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[You&#8217;re Doin&#8217; It Wrong]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2014/4/8/11625394/youre-doin-it-wrong" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2014/4/8/11625394/youre-doin-it-wrong</id>
			<updated>2019-03-06T05:51:14-05:00</updated>
			<published>2014-04-08T17:22:42-04:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Smartphones and tablets, along with apps connected to new cloud-computing platforms, are revolutionizing the workplace. We&#8217;re still early in this workplace transformation, and the tools so familiar to us will be around for quite sometime. The leaders, managers, and organizations that are using new tools sooner will quickly see how tools can drive cultural changes [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p>Smartphones and tablets, along with apps connected to new cloud-computing platforms, are revolutionizing the workplace. We&rsquo;re still early in this workplace transformation, and the tools so familiar to us will be around for quite sometime. The leaders, managers, and organizations that are using new tools sooner will quickly see how tools can drive cultural changes &mdash; developing products faster, with less bureaucracy and more focus on what&rsquo;s important to the business.</p>
<h4 class="red">If you&rsquo;re trying to change how work is done, changing the tools and processes can be an eye-opening first step.</h4>
<p>Many of the companies I work with are creating new productivity tools, and every company starting now is using them as a first principle. Companies run their business on new software-as-a-service tools. The basics of email and calendaring infrastructure are built on the tools of the consumerization of IT. Communication and work products between members of the team and partners are using new tools that were developed from the ground up for sharing, collaboration and mobility.</p>

<p>Some of the exciting new tools for productivity that you can use today include: <a href="http://quip.com/">Quip</a>, <a href="http://evernote.com/">Evernote</a>, <a href="http://box.com/">Box</a> and <a href="http://blog.box.com/2013/09/introducing-box-notes/">Box Notes</a>, <a href="http://dropbox.com/">Dropbox</a>, <a href="http://slack.com/">Slack</a>, <a href="http://hackpad.com/">Hackpad</a>, <a href="http://asana.com/">Asana</a>, <a href="http://pixxa.com/">Pixxa Perspective</a>, <a href="http://www.haikudeck.com/">Haiku Deck</a>, and more below. This list is by no means exhaustive, and new tools are showing up all the time. Some tools take familiar paradigms and pivot them for touch and mobile. Others are hybrids of existing tools that take a new view on how things can be more efficient, streamlined, or attuned to modern scenarios. All are easily used via trials for small groups and teams, even within large companies.</p>
<h4 class="red">Tools drive cultural change</h4>
<p>Tools have a critical yet subtle impact on how work gets done. Tools can come to define the work, as much as just making work more efficient. Early in the use of new tools there&rsquo;s a combination of a huge spike in benefit, along with a temporary dip in productivity. Even with all the improvements, all tools over time can become a drag on productivity as the tools become the end, rather than the means to an end. This is just a natural evolution of systems and processes in organizations, and productivity tools are no exception. It is something to watch for as a team.</p>

<p>The spike comes from the new ways information is acquired, shared, created, analyzed and more. Back when the PC first entered the workplace, it was astounding to see the rapid improvements in basic things like preparing memos, making &ldquo;slides,&rdquo; or the ability to share information via email.</p>

<p>There&rsquo;s a temporary dip in productivity as new individual and organizational muscles are formed and old tools and processes are replaced across the whole team. Everyone individually &mdash; and the team has a whole &mdash; feels a bit disrupted during this time. Things rapidly return to a &ldquo;new normal,&rdquo; and with well-chosen tools and thoughtfully-designed processes, this is an improvement.</p>

<p>As processes mature or age, it is not uncommon for those very gains to become burdensome. When a new lane opens on a highway, traffic moves faster for awhile, until more people discover the faster route, and then it feels like things are back where they started. Today&rsquo;s most common tools and processes have reached a point where the productivity increases they once brought feel less like improvements and more like extra work that isn&rsquo;t needed. All too often, the goals have long been lost, and the use of tools is on autopilot, with the reason behind the work simply &ldquo;because we always did it that way.&rdquo;</p>

<p>New tools are appearing that offer new ways to work. These new ways are not just different &mdash; this is not about fancier reports, doing the old stuff marginally faster, or bigger spreadsheets. Rather, these new tools are designed to solve problems faced by today&rsquo;s mobile and continuous organization. These tools take advantage of paradigms native to phones and tablets. Data is stored on a cloud. Collaboration takes place in real time. Coordination of work is baked into the tools. Work can be accessed from a broad range of computing devices of all types. These tools all build on the modern SaaS model, so they are easy to get, work outside your firewall and come with the safety and security of cloud-native companies.</p>

<p>The cultural changes enabled by these tools are significant. While it is possible to think about using these tools &ldquo;the same old way,&rdquo; you&rsquo;re likely to be disappointed. If you think a new tool that is about collaboration on short-lived documents will have feature parity with a tool for crafting printed books, then you&rsquo;re likely to feel like things are missing. If you&rsquo;re looking to improve your organizational effectiveness at communication, collaboration and information sharing, then you&rsquo;re also going to want to change some of the assumptions about how your organization works. The fact that the new tools do some things worse and other things differently points to the disruptive innovation that these products have the potential to bring &mdash; the &ldquo;<a href="http://recode.net/2014/01/06/the-four-stages-of-disruption-2/">Innovator&rsquo;s Dilemma</a>&rdquo; is well known to describe the idea that disruptive products often feel inferior when compared to entrenched products using existing criteria.</p>
<h4 class="red">Overcoming traps and pitfalls</h4>
<p>Based on seeing these tools in action and noticing how organizations can re-form around new ways of working, the following list compiles some of the most common pitfalls addressed by new tools. In other words, if you find yourself doing these things, it&rsquo;s time to reconsider the tools and processes on your team, and try something new.</p>

<p>Some of these will seem outlandish when viewed through today&rsquo;s concept. As a person who worked on productivity tools for much of my career, I think back to the time when it was crazy to use a word processor for a college paper; or when I first got a job, and typing was something done by the &ldquo;secretarial pool.&rdquo; Even the use of email in the enterprise was first ridiculed, and many managers had assistants who would print out email and then type dictated replies (no, really!). Things change slowly, then all of a sudden there are new norms.</p>

<p>In our Harvard Business School class, &ldquo;<a href="http://www.hbs.edu/coursecatalog/2134.html">Digital Innovation</a>,&rdquo; we crafted a notion of &ldquo;doing it wrong,&rdquo; and spent a session looking at disruption in the tools of the workplace. In that spirit, &ldquo;you&rsquo;re doing it wrong,&rdquo; if you:</p>
<ul class="wp-block-list"><li><strong>1.</strong> Spend more time summarizing or formatting a document than worrying about the actual content. Time and time again, people over-invest in the production qualities of a work product, only to realize that all that work was wasted, as most people consume it on a phone or look for the summary. This might not be new, but it is fair to say that the feature sets of existing tools and implementation (both right for when they were created, I believe) would definitely emphasize this type of activity.</li><li><strong>2.</strong> Aim to “complete” a document, and think your work is done when a document is done. The modern world of business and product development knows that you’re never done with a product, and that is certainly the case for documents that are steps along the way. Modern tools assume that documents continue to exist but fade in activity — the value is in getting the work out there to the cloud, and knowing that the document itself is rarely the end goal.</li><li><strong>3.</strong> Figure out something important with a long email thread, where the context can’t be shared and the backstory is lost. If you’re collaborating via email, you’re almost certainly losing important context, and not all the right folks are involved. A modern collaboration tool like <a href="http://slack.com/">Slack</a> keeps everything relevant in the tool, accessible by everyone on the team from everywhere at any time, but with a full history and search.</li><li><strong>4.</strong> Delay doing things until someone can get on your calendar, or you’re stuck waiting on someone else’s calendar. The existence of shared calendaring created a world of matching free/busy time, which is great until two people agree to solve an important problem — two weeks from now. Modern communication tools allow for notifications, fast-paced exchange of ideas and an ability to keep things moving. Culturally, if you let a calendar become a bottleneck, you’re creating an opening for a competitor, or an opportunity for a customer or partner to remain unhappy. Don’t let calendaring become a work-prevention tool.</li><li><strong>5.</strong> Believe that important choices can be distilled down into a one-hour meeting. If there’s something important to keep moving on, then scheduling a meeting to “bring everyone together” is almost certainly going to result in more delays (in addition to the time to get the meeting going in the first place). The one-hour meeting for a challenging issue almost never results in a resolution, but always pushes out the solution. If you’re sharing information all along, and the right people know all that needs to be known, then the modern resolution is right there in front of you. Speaking as a person who almost always shunned meetings to avoid being a bottleneck, I think it’s worth considering that the age-old technique of having short and daily sync meetings doesn’t really address this challenge. Meetings themselves, one might argue, are increasingly questionable in a world of continuously connected teams.</li><li><strong>6.</strong> Bring dead trees and static numbers to the table, rather than live, onscreen data. Live data analysis was invented 20 years ago, but too many still bring snapshots of old data to meetings, and then often digress into analyzing the validity of numbers, further delaying action until there’s an update. Then the meeting debates the validity of the data or the slice/view of the data. Modern tools like <a href="http://tidemark.com/">Tidemark</a> and <a href="http://apptio.com/">Apptio</a> provide real-time and mobile access to information. Meetings should use live data, and more importantly, the team should share access to live data so everyone is making choices with all the available information.</li><li><strong>7.</strong> Use the first 30 minutes of a meeting recreating and debating the prior context that got you to a meeting in the first place. All too often, when a meeting is scheduled far in advance, things change so much that by the time everyone is in the room, the first half of the hour (after connecting projects, going through an enterprise log-on, etc.) is spent with everyone reminding each other and attempting to agree on the context and purpose of the gathering. Why not write out a list of issues in a collaborative document like <a href="http://quip.com/">Quip</a>, and have folks share thoughts and data in real time to first understand the issue?</li><li><strong>8.</strong> Track what work needs to happen for a project using analog tools. Far too many projects are still tracked via paper and pen which aren’t shared, or on whiteboards with too little information, or in a spreadsheet mailed around over and over again. <a href="http://asana.com/">Asana</a> is a simple example of an easy-to-use and modern tool that decreases (to zero) email flow, allows for everyone to contribute and align on what needs to be done, and to have a global view of what is left to do.</li><li><strong>9.</strong> Need to think which computer or device your work is “on.” Cloud storage from <a href="http://box.com/">Box</a>, <a href="http://dropbox.com/">Dropbox</a>, <a href="http://onedrive.com/">OneDrive</a> and others makes it easy (and essential) to keep your documents in the cloud. You can edit, share, comment and track your documents from any device at any time. There’s no excuse for having a document stuck on a single computer, and certainly no excuse risking the use of USB storage for important work.</li><li><strong>10.</strong> Use different tools to collaborate with partners than you use with fellow employees. Today’s teams are made up of vendors, contractors, partners and customers all working together. Cloud-based tools solve the problem of access and security in modern ways that treat everyone as equals in the collaboration process. There’s a huge opportunity to increase the effectiveness of work across the team by using one set of tools across organizational boundaries.</li></ul>
<p>Many of these might seem far-fetched, and even heretical to some. From laptops to color printing to projectors in conference rooms to wireless networking to the Internet itself, each of those tools were introduced to skeptics who said the tools currently in use were &ldquo;good enough,&rdquo; and the new tools were slower, less efficient, more expensive, or just superfluous.</p>

<p>The teams that adopt new tools and adapt their way of working will be the most competitive and productive teams in an organization. Not every tool will work, and some will even fail. The best news is that today&rsquo;s approach to consumerization makes trial easier and cheaper than at any other time.</p>

<p>If you&rsquo;re caught in a rut, doing things the old way, the tools are out there to work in new ways and start to change the culture of your team.</p>

<p><em>Steven Sinofsky is a board partner at Andreessen Horowitz, an adviser at Box Inc., and an executive in residence at Harvard Business School. Follow him </em><a href="http://twitter.com/stevesi"><em>@stevesi</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Steven Sinofsky</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The Four Stages of Disruption]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2014/1/6/11622000/the-four-stages-of-disruption-2" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2014/1/6/11622000/the-four-stages-of-disruption-2</id>
			<updated>2019-03-06T05:39:55-05:00</updated>
			<published>2014-01-06T12:45:16-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Amazon" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Apple" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Big Tech" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Commerce" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Money" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Technology" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Innovation and disruption are the hallmarks of the technology world, and hardly a moment passes when we are not thinking, doing, or talking about these topics. While I was speaking with some entrepreneurs recently on the topic, the question kept coming up: &#8220;If we&#8217;re so aware of disruption, then why do successful products (or companies) [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<p>Innovation and disruption are the hallmarks of the technology world, and hardly a moment passes when we are not thinking, doing, or talking about these topics. While I was speaking with some entrepreneurs recently on the topic, the question kept coming up: &ldquo;If we&rsquo;re so aware of disruption, then why do successful products (or companies) keep getting disrupted?&rdquo;</p>

<p>Good question, and here&rsquo;s how I think about answering it.</p>

<p>As far back as 1962, Everett Rogers began his groundbreaking work defining the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations">process and diffusion of innovation</a>. Rogers defined the spread of innovation in the stages of <em>knowledge, persuasion, decision, implementation</em> and <em>confirmation</em>.</p>

<p>Those powerful concepts, however, do not fully describe disruptive technologies and products, and the impact on the existing technology base or companies that built it. Disruption is a critical element of the evolution of technology &mdash; from the positive and negative aspects of disruption a typical pattern emerges, as new technologies come to market and subsequently take hold.</p>

<p>A central question to disruption is whether it is inevitable or preventable. History would tend toward inevitable, but an engineer&rsquo;s optimism might describe the disruption that a new technology can bring more as a problem to be solved.</p>
<h2 class="red">The Four Stages of Disruption</h2>
<p>For incumbents, the stages of innovation for a technology product that ultimately disrupt follow a pattern that is fairly well known. While that doesn&rsquo;t grant us the predictive powers to know whether an innovation will ultimately disrupt, we can use a model to understand what design choices to prioritize, and when. In other words, the pattern is likely necessary, but not sufficient to fend off disruption. Value exists in identifying the response and emotions surrounding each phase of the innovation pattern, because, as with disruption itself, the actions/reactions of incumbents and innovators play important roles in how parties progress through innovation. In some ways, the response and emotions to undergoing disruption are analogous to the classic <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model">stages of grieving</a>.</p>

<p>Rather than the five stages of grief, we can describe four stages that comprise the <em>innovation pattern</em> for technology products: Disruption of incumbent; rapid and linear evolution; appealing convergence; and complete reimagination. Any product line or technology can be placed in this sequence at a given time.</p>

<p>The pattern of disruption can be thought of as follows, keeping in mind that at any given time for any given category, different products and companies are likely at different stages relative to some local &ldquo;end point&rdquo; of innovation.</p>
<p><a href="http://recodetech.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/disruption.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-2457" alt="disruption" src="http://recodetech.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/disruption.png?w=640" width="640" height="203"></a></p><h2 class="red">Phase One: Disruption of Incumbent</h2>
<p>A <em>moment</em> of disruption is where the conversation about disruption often begins, even though determining that moment is entirely hindsight. (For example, when did BlackBerry get disrupted by the iPhone, film by digital imaging or bookstores by Amazon?) A new technology, product or service is available, and it seems to some to be a limited, but different, replacement for some existing, widely used and satisfactory solution. Most everyone is familiar with this stage of innovation. In fact, it could be argued that most are so familiar with this aspect that collectively our industry cries &ldquo;disruption&rdquo; far more often than is actually the case.</p>

<p>From a product development perspective, choosing whether a technology is disruptive at a potential moment is key. If you are making a new product, then you&rsquo;re &ldquo;betting the business&rdquo; on a new technology &mdash; and doing so will be counterintuitive to many around you. If you have already built a business around a successful existing product, then your &ldquo;bet the business&rdquo; choice is whether or not to redirect efforts to a new technology. While difficult to prove, most would generally assert that new technologies that are subsequently disruptive are bet on by new companies first. The very nature of disruption is such that existing enterprises see more downside risk in betting the company than they see upside return in a new technology. This is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator's_Dilemma">innovator&rsquo;s dilemma</a>.</p>

<p>The incumbent&rsquo;s reactions to potential technology disruptions are practically cliche. New technologies are inferior. New products do not do all the things existing products do, or are inefficient. New services fail to address existing needs as well as what is already in place. Disruption can seem more expensive because the technologies have not yet scaled, or can seem cheaper because they simply do less. Of course, the new products are usually viewed as minimalist or as <a href="http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2013/04/return-and-ridicule.html">toys</a>, and often unrelated to the core business. Additionally, business-model disruption has similar analogues relative to margins, channels, partners, revenue approaches and more.</p>

<p>The primary incumbent reaction during this phase is to essentially ignore the product or technology &mdash; not every individual in an organization, but the organization as a whole often enters this state of denial. One of the historical realities of disruption is uncovering the &ldquo;told you so&rdquo; evidence, which is always there, because no matter what happens, someone always said it would. The larger the organization, the more individuals probably sent mail or had potential early-stage work that could have avoided disruption, at least in their views (see &ldquo;<a href="http://blog.learningbyshipping.com/2013/10/03/disruption-and-woulda-coulda-shoulda/">Disruption and Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda</a>&rdquo; and the case of BlackBerry). One of the key roles of a company is to make choices, and choosing change to a more risky course versus defense of the current approaches are the very choices that hamstring an organization.</p>

<p>There are dozens of examples of disruptive technologies and products. And the reactions (or inactions) of incumbents are legendary. One example that illustrates this point would be the introduction of the &ldquo;PC as a server.&rdquo; This has all of the hallmarks of disruption. The first customers to begin to use PCs as servers &mdash; for application workloads such as file sharing, or early client/server development &mdash; ran into incredible challenges relative to the mini/mainframe computing model. While new PCs were far more flexible and less expensive, they lacked the reliability, horsepower and tooling to supplant existing models. Those in the mini/mainframe world could remain comfortable observing the lack of those traits, almost dismissing PC servers as not &ldquo;real servers,&rdquo; while they continued on their path further distancing themselves from the capabilities of PC servers, refining their products and businesses for a growing base of customers. PCs as servers were simply toys.</p>

<p>At the same time, PC servers began to evolve and demonstrate richer models for application development (rich client front-ends), lower cost and scalable databases, and better economics for new application development. With the rapidly increasing demand for computing solutions to business problems, this wave of PC servers fit the bill. Soon the number of new applications written in this new way began to dwarf development on &ldquo;real servers,&rdquo; and the once-important servers became legacy relative to PC-based servers for those making the bet or shift. PC servers would soon begin to transition from disruption to broad adoption, but first the value proposition needed to be completed.</p>
<h2 class="red">Phase Two: Rapid Linear Evolution</h2>
<p>Once an innovative product or technology begins rapid adoption, the focus becomes &ldquo;filling out&rdquo; the product. In this phase, the product creators are still disruptors, innovating along the trajectory they set for themselves, with a strong focus on early-adopter customers, themselves disruptors. The disruptors are following their vision. The incumbents continue along their existing and successful trajectory, unknowingly sealing their fate.</p>

<p>This phase is critically important to understand from a product-development perspective. As a disruptive force, new products bring to the table a new way of looking at things &mdash; a counterculture, a revolution, an insurgency. The heroic efforts to bring a product or service to market (and the associated business models) leave a lot of room left to improve, often referred to as &ldquo;low-hanging fruit.&rdquo; The path from where one is today to the next six, 12, 18 months is well understood. You draw from the cutting-room floor of ideas that got you to where you are. Moving forward might even mean fixing or redoing some of the earlier decisions made with less information, or out of urgency.</p>

<p>Generally, your business approach follows the initial plan, as well, and has analogous elements of insurgency. Innovation proceeds rapidly in this point. Your focus is on the adopters of your product &mdash; your fellow disruptors (disrupting within their context). You are adding features critical to completing the scenario you set out to develop.</p>

<p>To the incumbent leaders, you look like you are digging in your heels for a losing battle. In their view, your vector points in the wrong direction, and you&rsquo;re throwing good money after bad. This only further reinforces the view of disruptors that they are heading in the right direction. The previous generals are fighting the last war, and the disruptors have opened up a new front. And yet, the traction in the disruptor camp becomes undeniable. The incumbent begins to mount a response. That response is somewhere between dismissive and negative, and focuses on comparing the products by using the existing criteria established by the incumbent. The net effect of this effort is to validate the insurgency.</p>
<h2 class="red">Phase Three: Appealing Convergence</h2>
<p>As the market redefinition proceeds, the category of a new product starts to undergo a subtle redefinition. No longer is it enough to do new things well; the market begins to call for the replacement of the incumbent technology with the new technology. In this phase, the entire market begins to &ldquo;wake up&rdquo; to the capabilities of the new product.</p>

<p>As the disruptive product rapidly evolves, the initial vision becomes <em>relatively</em> complete (realizing that nothing is ever finished, but the scenarios overall start to fill in). The treadmill of rapidly evolving features begins to feel somewhat incremental, and relatively known to the team. The business starts to feel saturated. Overall, the early adopters are now a maturing group, and a sense of stability develops.</p>

<p>Looking broadly at the landscape, it is clear that the next battleground is to go after the incumbent customers who have not made the move. In other words, once you&rsquo;ve conquered the greenfield you created, you check your rearview mirror and look to pick up the broad base of customers who did not see your product as market-ready or scenario-complete. To accomplish this, you look differently at your own product and see what is missing relative to the competition you just left in the dust. You begin to realize that all those things your competitor had that you don&rsquo;t may not be such bad ideas after all. Maybe those folks you disrupted knew something, and had some insights that your market category could benefit from putting to work.</p>

<p>In looking at many disruptive technologies and disruptors, the pattern of looking back to move forward is typical. One can almost think of this as a natural maturing; you promise never to do some of the things your parents did, until one day you find yourself thinking, &ldquo;Oh my, I&rsquo;ve become my parents.&rdquo; The reason that products are destined to converge along these lines is simply practical engineering. Even when technologies are disrupted, the older technologies evolved for a reason, and those reasons are often still valid. The disruptors have the advantage of looking at those problems and solving them in their newly defined context, which can often lead to improved solutions (easier to deploy, cheaper, etc.) At the same time, there is also a risk of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second-system_effect">second-system syndrome</a> that must be carefully monitored. It is not uncommon for the renegade disruptors, fresh off the success they have been seeing, to come to believe in broader theories of unification or architecture and simply try to get too much done, or to lose the elegance of the newly defined solution.</p>
<h2 class="red">Phase Four: Complete Reimagination</h2>
<p>The last stage of technology disruption is when a category or technology is reimagined from the ground up. While one can consider this just another disruption, it is a unique stage in this taxonomy because of the responses from both the legacy incumbent and the disruptor.</p>

<p>Reimagining a technology or product is a return to first principles. It is about looking at the underlying assumptions and essentially rethinking all of them at once. What does it mean to <em>capture an image</em>, <em>provide transportation</em>, <em>share computation</em>, <em>search the Web</em>, and more? The reimagined technology often has little resemblance to the legacy, and often has the appearance of even making the previous disruptive technology appear to be legacy. The melding of old and new into a completely different solution often creates whole new categories of products and services, built upon a base of technology that appears completely different.</p>

<p>To those who have been through the first disruption, their knowledge or reference frame seems dated. There is also a feeling of being unable to keep up. The words are known, but the specifics seem like rocket science. Where there was comfort in the convergence of ideas, the newly reimagined world seems like a whole new generation, and so much more than a competitor.</p>

<p>In software, one way to think of this is generational. The disruptors studied the incumbents in university, and then went on to use that knowledge to build a better mousetrap. Those in university while the new mousetrap was being built benefited from learning from both a legacy and new perspective, thus seeing again how to disrupt. It is often this fortuitous timing that defines generations in technologies.</p>

<p>Reimagining is important because the breakthroughs so clearly subsume all that came before. What characterizes a reimagination most is that it renders the criteria used to evaluate the previous products irrelevant. Often there are orders of magnitude difference in cost, performance, reliability, service and features. Things are just wildly better. That&rsquo;s why some have referred to this as the <a href="http://www.asymco.com/2013/08/26/the-innovators-curse/">innovator&rsquo;s curse</a>. There&rsquo;s no time to bask in the glory of the previous success, as there&rsquo;s a disruptor following right up on your heels.</p>

<p>A recent example is cloud computing. Cloud computing is a reimagination of <em>both</em> the mini/mainframe and PC-server models. By some accounts, it is a hybrid of those two, taking the commodity hardware of the PC world and the thin client/data center view of the mainframe world. One would really have to squint in order to claim it is just that, however, as the fundamental innovation in cloud computing delivers entirely new scale, reliability and flexibility, at a cost that upends both of those models. Literally every assumption of the mainframe and client/server computing was revisited, intentionally or not, in building modern cloud systems.</p>

<p>For the previous incumbent, it is too late. There&rsquo;s no way to sprinkle some reimagination on your product. The logical path, and the one most frequently taken, is to &ldquo;mine the installed base,&rdquo; and work hard to keep those customers happy and minimize the mass defections from your product. The question then becomes one of building an entirely new product that meets these new criteria, but from within the existing enterprise. The number of times this has been successfully accomplished is diminishingly small, but there will always be exceptions to the rule.</p>

<p>For the previous disruptor and new leader, there is a decision point that is almost unexpected. One might consider the drastic &mdash; simply learn from what you previously did, and essentially abandon your work and start over using what you learned. Or you could be more incremental, and get straight to the convergence phase with the latest technologies. It feels like the ground is moving beneath you. Can you converge rapidly, perhaps revisiting more assumptions, and show more flexibility to abandon some things while doing new things? Will your product architecture and technologies sustain this type of rethinking? Your customer base is relatively new, and was just feeling pretty good about winning, so the pressure to keep winning will be high. Will you do more than try to recast your work in this new light?</p>

<p>The relentless march of technology change comes faster than you think.</p>
<h2 class="red">So What Can You Do?</h2>
<p>Some sincerely believe that products, and thus companies, disrupt and then are doomed to be disrupted. Like a Starship captain when the shields are down, you simply tell all hands to brace themselves, and then see what&rsquo;s left after the attack. Business and product development, however, are social sciences. There are no laws of nature, and nothing is certain to happen. There are patterns, which can be helpful signposts, or can blind you to potential actions. This is what makes the technology industry, and the changes technology bring to other industries, so exciting and interesting.</p>

<p>The following table summarizes the stages of disruption and the typical actions and reactions at each stage:</p>
<table width="95%" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody> <tr> <th valign="top" width="15%">Stage</th> <th valign="top" width="38%">Disruptor</th> <th valign="top">Incumbent</th> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="15%"><strong>Disruption of Incumbent</strong></td> <td valign="top" width="38%">Introduces new product with a distinct point of view, knowing it does not solve all the needs of the entire existing market, but advances the state of the art in technology and/or business.</td> <td valign="top">New product or service is not relevant to existing customers or market, a.k.a. &ldquo;deny.&rdquo;</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="15%"><strong>Rapid linear evolution</strong></td> <td valign="top" width="38%">Proceeds to rapidly add features and capabilities, filling out the value proposition after initial traction with select early adopters.</td> <td valign="top">Begins to compare full-featured product to new product and show deficiencies, a.k.a. &ldquo;validate.&rdquo;</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="15%"><strong>Appealing Convergence</strong></td> <td valign="top" width="38%">Sees opportunity to acquire broader customer base by appealing to slow movers. Also sees limitations of own new product and learns from what was done in the past, reflected in a new way. Potential risk is being leapfrogged by even newer technologies and business models as focus turns to &ldquo;installed base&rdquo; of incumbent.</td> <td valign="top">Considers <em>cramming</em> some element of disruptive features to existing product line to sufficiently demonstrate attention to future trends while minimizing interruption of existing customers, a.k.a. &ldquo;compete.&rdquo; Potential risk is failing to see the true value or capabilities of disruptive products relative to the limitations of existing products.</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="15%"><strong>Complete Reimagination</strong></td> <td valign="top" width="38%">Approaches a decision point as new entrants to the market can benefit from all your product has demonstrated, without embracing the legacy customers as done previously. Embrace legacy market more, or keep pushing forward?</td> <td valign="top">Arguably too late to respond, and begins to define the new product as part of a new market, and existing product part of a larger, existing market, a.k.a. &ldquo;retreat.&rdquo;</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
<p>Considering these stages and reactions, there are really two key decision points to be tuned-in to:</p>
<ul> <li>When you&rsquo;re the incumbent, your key decision is to choose carefully what you view as disruptive or not. It is to the benefit of every competitor to claim they are disrupting your products and business. Creating this sort of chaos is something that causes untold consternation in a large organization. Unfortunately, there are no magic answers for the incumbent.The business team needs to develop a keen understanding of the dynamics of competitive offerings, and know when a new model can offer more to customers and partners in a different way. More importantly, it must avoid an excess attachment to today&rsquo;s measures of success.<p>The technology and product team needs to maintain a clinical detachment from the existing body of work to evaluate if something new is better, while also avoiding the more common technology trap of being attracted to the <a href="http://blog.learningbyshipping.com/2013/07/23/dealing-with-shiny-objects-tips-for-using-both-sides-of-your-brain/">next shiny object</a>.</p> </li> <li>When you&rsquo;re the disruptor, your key decision point is really when and if to embrace convergence. Once you make the choices &mdash; in terms of business model or product offering &mdash; to embrace the point of view of the incumbent, you stand to gain from the bridge to the existing base of customers.Alternatively, you create the potential to lose big to the next disruptor who takes the best of what you offer and leapfrogs the convergence stage with a truly reimagined product. By bridging to the <em>legacy</em>, you also run the risk of focusing your business and product plans on the customers least likely to keep pushing you forward, or those least likely to be aggressive and growing organizations. You run the risk of looking backward more than forward.</li> </ul>
<p>For everyone, timing is everything. We often look at disruption in hindsight, and choose disruptive moments based on product availability (or lack thereof). In practice, products require time to conceive, iterate and execute, and different companies will work on these at different paces. Apple famously talked about the 10-year project that was the iPhone, with many gaps, and while the iPad appears a quick successor, it, too, was part of that odyssey. Sometimes a new product appears to be a response to a new entry, but in reality it was under development for perhaps the same amount of time as another entry.</p>

<p>There are many examples of this path to disruption in technology businesses. While many seem &ldquo;classic&rdquo; today, the players at the time more often than not exhibited the actions and reactions described here.</p>

<p>As a social science, business does not lend itself to provable operational rules. As appealing as disruption theory might be, the context and actions of many parties create unique circumstances each and every time. There is no guarantee that new technologies and products will disrupt incumbents, just as there is no certainty that existing companies must be disrupted. Instead, product leaders look to patterns, and model their choices in an effort to create a new path.</p>

<p><em>Steven Sinofsky is a board partner at Andreessen Horowitz, an adviser at Box Inc. and an executive in residence at Harvard Business School. Follow him </em><a href="http://twitter.com/stevesi"><em>@stevesi</em></a><em>.</em></p>

<p><small><em>This article originally appeared on Recode.net.</em></small></p>
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