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	<title type="text">Tara Golshan | Vox</title>
	<subtitle type="text">Our world has too much noise and too little context. Vox helps you understand what matters.</subtitle>

	<updated>2020-04-27T15:49:10+00:00</updated>

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		<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Dylan Scott</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Ezra Klein</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Tara Golshan</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Everybody Covered]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2020/1/13/21055327/everybody-covered" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2020/1/13/21055327/everybody-covered</id>
			<updated>2020-04-27T11:49:10-04:00</updated>
			<published>2020-02-12T10:28:16-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Features" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health Care" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[You hear it all the time: American health care spends more money and produces worse outcomes than many other developed countries&#8217; systems. But why? What have other countries done to achieve universal health care, to cover everybody, that the United States has not? And what are the consequences of those choices? To answer these questions, [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Ashley Pon for Vox" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19593027/_T7A6980.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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<p>You hear it all the time: American health care <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/12/17/21024614/us-health-care-costs-medical-prices">spends more money</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/health-care/2018/1/8/16863656/childhood-mortality-united-states">produces worse outcomes</a> than many other developed countries&rsquo; systems. But why? What have other countries done to achieve universal health care, to cover everybody, that the United States has not? And what are the consequences of those choices?</p>

<p>To answer these questions, Vox reporters traveled the world last fall to see other health systems in action, talking with doctors, patients, and government officials to get the full and often complex picture. Everybody Covered takes a closer look at a single-payer plan in Taiwan, a private-public hybrid in Australia, supercharged Obamacare in the Netherlands, the vaunted National Health Service of Great Britain, and an innovative hospital budgeting scheme right here in Maryland. Our project was made possible by a grant from <a href="https://www.commonwealthfund.org/about-us">The Commonwealth Fund</a>.</p>

<p>Each system provides its own lessons about how to improve health care &mdash;&nbsp;not only in designing a better system but in the societal choices and shared sacrifices that must be made to attain universal health care.</p>

<p>No health care system is perfect. But most of America&rsquo;s economic peers have figured out a way to deliver truly universal coverage and quality care. The United States has not.</p>

<p>America can and should do better. The rest of the world can help show the way. We found at least <a href="https://www.vox.com/health-care/2020/1/29/21075388/medicare-for-all-what-countries-have-universal-health-care">9 things Americans can learn from other countries&rsquo; health systems.</a></p>

<p>To better understand how health care really works elsewhere, check out the stories and podcasts below.</p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://vox.com/health-care/2020/1/13/21028702/medicare-for-all-taiwan-health-insurance">Taiwan’s single-payer success story — and its lessons for America</a></h2><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19593031/_T7A6696.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Ashley Pon for Vox" />
<p>Taiwan overhauled its health care system 25 years ago, setting up a program as close to Sen. Bernie Sanders&rsquo;s Medicare-for-all as exists in the real world. But it has been, and remains, a challenge to keep the single-payer plan sustainable. Difficult choices await the Taiwanese people, even as they&rsquo;ve seen health care vastly improve.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/dylan-scott">by Dylan Scott</a></p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://vox.com/2020/1/15/21030568/australia-health-insurance-medicare">Two sisters. Two different journeys through Australia’s health care system.</a></h2><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19593032/0Q1A6670.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Anne Moffat for Vox" />
<p>The Aussies have developed a public-private hybrid: public insurance anybody is eligible for and private insurance for people who want more choices. On balance, it works well: Everybody has coverage, people who can afford private insurance like having options, and Australian health care ranks among the best in the world. But private insurance is facing a crisis, raising new questions about the viability of a two-tiered system.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/dylan-scott">by Dylan Scott</a></p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/17/21046874/netherlands-universal-health-insurance-private">The Netherlands has universal health insurance — and it’s all private</a></h2><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19581869/MW_Vox_DutchHealthcare2019_160.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Marlena Waldthausen for Vox" />
<p>The Dutch have Obamacare for everybody: mandatory private insurance that bars denying coverage based on preexisting conditions, a model of managed competition. By some metrics, they have built the best health care system in the world. Access to providers is exemplary. But costs to patients can be high compared to other countries, leading some critics to question how well the private market has worked in delivering more affordable care.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/dylan-scott">by Dylan Scott</a></p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/22/21055118/maryland-health-care-global-hospital-budget">The answer to America’s health care cost problem might be in Maryland</a></h2><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19593043/AMANGUM_9378.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Mangum for Vox" />
<p>The Mid-Atlantic state has a payment system for hospitals unlike anything else in the United States: global budgets. By capping payments to hospitals on a yearly basis, the state has strived to incentivize more efficient, higher-quality health care. Some experts think cost containment, not coverage expansion, should be the next step for health care reform. Should Maryland&rsquo;s all-payer model go nationwide?</p>

<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/tara-golshan">by Tara Golshan</a></p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading"><a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/1/28/21074386/health-care-rationing-britain-nhs-nice-medicare-for-all">In the UK’s health system, rationing isn’t a dirty word</a></h2><img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19593096/GettyImages_1171403414.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Stefan Rousseau/PA Images via Getty Images" />
<p>Right now, the United States rations care in a simple, cruel way: If you can&rsquo;t afford it, you can&rsquo;t get it. In national health care systems, decisions do need to be made about who gets what, how much the government is willing to pay, and what happens when the government can&rsquo;t or won&rsquo;t cover treatments people want. The UK, in particular, offers a model for making these decisions in clear, transparent ways &mdash; but that very transparency is part of what makes it so politically controversial.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/authors/ezra-klein">by Ezra Klein</a></p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" /><h2 class="wp-block-heading"><em>Everybody Covered</em> on the Vox Media Podcast Network</h2><div class="spotify-embed"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/2mFcCJr1DUQWBu5uBqFYYt" width="100%" height="152" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe></div><div class="spotify-embed"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/0GlFXEfRBeX5aItBpNmn1i" width="100%" height="152" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe></div><div class="spotify-embed"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/378Gr950Xel3MKioo4eAGZ" width="100%" height="152" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe></div><div class="spotify-embed"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/2T38vd3zYWvDQwFIq6zUNF" width="100%" height="152" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe></div><div class="spotify-embed"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/5YxNUD9OGaC5FD0UUHwzgi" width="100%" height="152" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe></div><hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p><strong>CREDITS</strong><br><strong>Reporters: </strong>Dylan Scott,&nbsp;Tara Golshan, Ezra Klein&nbsp;<br><strong>Photographers: </strong>Ashley Pon, Anne Moffat, Marlena Waldthausen, Andrew Mangum<br><strong>Editors: </strong>Elbert Ventura, Libby Nelson, Laura McGann<br><strong>Podcast producer/co-reporter: </strong>Byrd Pinkerton<br><strong>Podcast editor: </strong>Amy Drozdowska<br><strong>Podcast senior producer/host: </strong>Jillian Weinberger<br><strong>Visuals editor: </strong>Kainaz Amaria<br><strong>Graphics: </strong>Christina Animashaun, Zac Freeland<br><strong>Copy editors: </strong>Tanya Pai, Tim Williams<br><strong>Engagement: </strong>Lauren Katz<br><strong>Fact checkers:</strong> Kayla Chen, Matt Giles</p>

<p><em>This series&nbsp;was made possible by a grant from The Commonwealth Fund. All content is editorially independent and produced by our journalists.</em></p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Ella Nilsen</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Tara Golshan</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The extremely small number of votes it takes to win the Iowa caucuses, explained]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2019/11/13/20953263/what-it-takes-to-win-iowa-caucuses-explained" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2019/11/13/20953263/what-it-takes-to-win-iowa-caucuses-explained</id>
			<updated>2020-02-03T09:29:32-05:00</updated>
			<published>2020-02-03T09:05:59-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="2020 Presidential Election" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Explainers" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[The winner of Iowa&#8217;s Democratic presidential caucuses could draw in fewer votes than a competitive congressional race in the state. On Monday night, the nation will be looking to Iowa, where the first Americans will be able to cast their vote in the 2020 presidential elections. But with a field of 11 candidates, the winner [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="Supporters cheer as Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks to voters on the Soapbox stage at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, on August 11, 2019. | Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19370315/GettyImages_1164752570.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	Supporters cheer as Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks to voters on the Soapbox stage at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, on August 11, 2019. | Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images	</figcaption>
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<p>The winner of Iowa&rsquo;s Democratic presidential caucuses could draw in fewer votes than a competitive congressional race in the state.</p>

<p>On Monday night, the nation will be looking to Iowa, where the first Americans will be able to cast their vote in the 2020 presidential elections. But with a field of 11 candidates,<strong> </strong>the winner could walk away having only received the support of 40,000 to 50,000 caucus-goers statewide &mdash;&nbsp;fewer people than live in Dubuque, Iowa. And political experts here said with five strong candidates going into caucus night, it&rsquo;s still anyone&rsquo;s guess who could win.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Maybe the top candidate ends up with 20 percent, because you&rsquo;ve got six strong candidates going into caucus night,&rdquo; Norm Sterzenbach, a former Iowa Democratic Party official said this fall (Sterzenbach now works for the Klobuchar campaign). &ldquo;Twenty percent could win it, that&rsquo;s only 40,000-50,000 votes.&rdquo;</p>

<p>In some ways, this math means the race is up for grabs.</p>

<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s a relatively small number, right? It&rsquo;s the size of a sort of medium-sized town,&rdquo; said David Redlawsk, a political science professor at the University of Delaware and an expert on the Iowa caucuses. &ldquo;In congressional elections, winners normally have more than 100,000 votes.&rdquo;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19370356/GettyImages_1179403890.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="People attend the Iowa Democratic Party Liberty &amp; Justice Celebration on November 1, 2019 in Des Moines, Iowa. | Joshua Lott/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Joshua Lott/Getty Images" />
<p>We still don&rsquo;t know what the 2020 turnout will be, but ultimately, a small sliver of Iowa&rsquo;s population participates in the caucuses. About 171,000 Democratic caucus-goers participated in 2016, just 15.7 percent of the overall population. That&rsquo;s about a quarter of the population of Washington, DC. When it&rsquo;s over, millions of campaign dollars and hours spent campaigning in Iowa will all be spent to win the hearts of a small number of American voters.</p>

<p>But unlike primaries where the raw vote totals dictate the winner, Iowa has an electoral-college-like system that rewards having support across the state. To win, candidates have to out-organize each other across the state &mdash; and not only make the case to turn out their own supporters but also be able to persuade other candidates&rsquo; supporters to switch to them on the day of the caucuses.</p>

<p>Presidential campaigns and local political experts and activists are bracing themselves for what could be an especially hectic Iowa caucus night on February 3, including John Deeth, a longtime party activist and member of the Johnson County Democrats executive committee. Deeth is tasked with organizing the caucuses near the University of Iowa, and he&rsquo;s expecting high turnout &mdash;&nbsp;and the resultant mayhem it creates. &ldquo;I am anticipating chaos and anarchy,&rdquo; he said.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How to win an Iowa caucus, briefly explained</h2>
<p>Iowa&rsquo;s caucuses aren&rsquo;t your normal election; there&rsquo;s no absentee mail-in ballot or early voting. For Democrats in particular, it&rsquo;s a public, hours-long event where Iowans have to physically travel to one of the state&rsquo;s 1,678&nbsp;precincts &mdash; a community center, high school gym, or a public library &mdash; to participate.</p>

<p>Participating means physically congregating with people who support the same candidate. If a candidate fails to gain the support of at least 15 percent of attendees in the room, that candidate is cut from the running and their supporters have one opportunity to realign themselves with a different candidate. If a candidate does have at least 15 percent of the room behind them, then the supporters are locked in with their vote.</p>
<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="How the Iowa caucus works" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tQBtht_-vAQ?rel=0" allowfullscreen allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div>
<p>Political experts in Iowa told Vox they&rsquo;re estimating the 2020 caucus turnout could be somewhere in between 2016 and the record-setting 2008, which saw 236,000 Democratic caucus-goers show up (still just about a 16 percent turnout). For context, New Hampshire, the first-in-the-nation primary that goes after Iowa and has an even smaller population than the Hawkeye State, had turnout over 50 percent both years.</p>

<p>In a caucus, more candidates and higher voter turnout translates into more chaos. For example, Deeth and Sterzenbach floated the possibility that undecided voters could make up a 15-percent-block in<strong> </strong>a room &mdash; and then be locked out of changing their vote.</p>

<p>This system also changes candidates&rsquo; priorities. Unlike other states where winning means getting the most votes, in Iowa delegates are allocated by precinct (based on a <a href="https://iowademocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/02/2020-Iowa-DSP-DRAFT-2.11.19.pdf">complicated formula</a>); doing exceptionally well in liberal, heavily populated Iowa City doesn&rsquo;t mean you win outright if you cannot perform in smaller rural precincts throughout the state. That means presidential campaigns have to strategize all around.</p>

<p>&ldquo;I really feel like this is an open race and I can tell you that because I have knocked on doors,&rdquo; said Penny Rosfjord, who chairs the Iowa Democratic Party&rsquo;s fourth district. &ldquo;Sometimes it has been that people have really worked hard and really tried to turn out the smaller counties. If you stack enough of those up, you are going to be in the hunt in the big picture.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The campaigns on the ground will tell you that the Iowa caucuses are about organizing in a way that&rsquo;s different from any other state.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Success in the Iowa caucuses demands precinct-level organization in every corner of the state &mdash; east to west, urban to suburban to rural, and among every constituency,&rdquo; Jason Noble, Sen. Elizabeth Warren&rsquo;s Iowa spokesperson, told Vox in November.</p>

<p>You have to think about ensuring a caucus-goer can get off work, has a ride to the precinct, and can access the child care needed to be able to spend three-plus hours shuffling around a high school gym to vote. And it also means campaigns need that infrastructure in place across the whole state.</p>

<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not whether you can run up a score in one precinct but if you can be viable in a lot of different kinds of precincts,&rdquo; Jesse Harris, a veteran of Obama&rsquo;s Iowa operation who is now advising Biden&rsquo;s campaign, told Vox this fall.</p>

<p>Campaigns including Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Biden &mdash; among those that are most likely to meet the 15 percent threshold in any given precinct &mdash; said they are hoping to staff every single precinct with volunteers. Sanders&rsquo;s campaign has trained over 1,000 caucus volunteers to date, which involves a four-part course around delegate math, persuading voters on the ground, and organizing. These volunteers, and the tens of thousands of others who have donated or organized on the ground will be crucial to the campaign&rsquo;s final push.</p>

<p>&ldquo;This is not about big crowds,&rdquo; Misty Rebik, Sanders&rsquo;s Iowa state director, told Vox in November. &ldquo;We are very proud of our crowd sizes at our events but we know it has to go deeper than that.&rdquo;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Voters’ second choice might matter more this election</h2>
<p>Several national polls have given a snapshot of voters&rsquo; second choices &mdash; but much of the focus has been around the top-tier candidates like Warren, Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg.</p>

<p>Those are the four candidates that have been leading Iowa polls for months now, but Sen. Amy Klobuchar is also very much in the mix. Sanders is now ahead by a slight margin, with Biden trailing him, <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html">according to the latest RealClearPolitics average</a>. But all in all, the polls show a race that&rsquo;s still very fluid.</p>

<p>To win the state, the second choice for voters that back the other seven candidates, from entrepreneur Andrew Yang to Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), is far more powerful. The lower-tier candidates, those who are still only registering single digits in the polls, will likely be cut from the running in the first round of caucusing, unable to gain 15 percent of support, and their supporters will have to decide whether they want to vote for their second choice or go home.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19370349/GettyImages_1184955129.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Democratic presidential candidate, former HUD Secretary Julián Castro speaks at the Liberty and Justice Celebration in Des Moines, Iowa, on November 1, 2019. | Scott Olson/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Scott Olson/Getty Images" />
<p>&ldquo;The second choices are going to matter more than they usually do because there&rsquo;s going to be a lot of not viable candidates,&rdquo; Deeth said. This math has some campaigns that have consistently been polling in the double digits &mdash; but not quite in the lead &mdash; feeling more optimistic.</p>

<p>&ldquo;The 15 percent threshold is going to be important in this election,&rdquo; Rebik said. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s fine if people think they are going to gain momentum magically, but at the end of they day they have to be viable.&rdquo;</p>

<p>This process, called realignment, has been a crucial part of organizing for campaigns from the beginning. Sanders staffers told Vox last fall they&rsquo;re focused on training volunteers to make the case in the room. Rebik noted the campaign is also working on technology to help the campaign&rsquo;s precinct captain do the delegate math in the room &mdash; and send results more quickly to headquarters.</p>

<p>As did Biden&rsquo;s campaign.</p>

<p>&ldquo;From the very beginning, if someone is supporting another candidate, we will ask if the vice president will be their second choice &mdash; we have been coding that from the beginning,&rdquo; Harris said. &ldquo;If you can walk in the door with 25 percent of the [caucus-goers], you could walk out with 35 percent.&rdquo;</p>

<p>It is really anybody&rsquo;s race to win, as long as they can prove their organizing chops can effectively span the entire state. It means covering a lot of ground, but not necessarily bringing in a lot of people.</p>

<p>&ldquo;A candidate can shake the hand of everybody who will caucus for them in Iowa,&rdquo; Redlawsk added.</p>
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			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Tara Golshan</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[The answer to America’s health care cost problem might be in Maryland]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/22/21055118/maryland-health-care-global-hospital-budget" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/22/21055118/maryland-health-care-global-hospital-budget</id>
			<updated>2020-01-28T09:09:11-05:00</updated>
			<published>2020-01-22T08:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Features" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Health Care" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[CUMBERLAND, Maryland &#8212; Barry Ronan, the president and chief executive of Western Maryland Health System, has an unofficial motto as patients leave his hospital: &#8220;We hope to never see you again.&#8221; &#8220;We&#8217;re not that blunt,&#8221; Ronan clarified on a Monday morning in November, sitting in his office overlooking the campus of Western Maryland hospital, a [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="Shirley Crowder, 70, who lost both her legs due to diabetes, is part of a home care program offered by Sinai Hospital in Baltimore, Maryland. The program’s goal is to prevent people from repeatedly being admitted to the hospital. | Andrew Mangum for Vox" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Mangum for Vox" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19584866/AMANGUM_9378.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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	Shirley Crowder, 70, who lost both her legs due to diabetes, is part of a home care program offered by Sinai Hospital in Baltimore, Maryland. The program’s goal is to prevent people from repeatedly being admitted to the hospital. | Andrew Mangum for Vox	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>CUMBERLAND, Maryland &mdash; Barry Ronan, the president and chief executive of Western Maryland Health System, has an unofficial motto as patients leave his hospital: &ldquo;We hope to never see you again.&rdquo;</p>

<p>&ldquo;We&rsquo;re not that blunt,&rdquo; Ronan clarified on a Monday morning in November, sitting in his office overlooking the campus of Western Maryland hospital, a series of sleek gray and blue buildings tucked in the Allegheny Mountains. &ldquo;But that&rsquo;s the subtle message.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Ronan&rsquo;s attitude is an anomaly in the American health care system. Hospitals in the United States rely on having patients in their beds to keep their budgets afloat. His approach might seem particularly risky in Cumberland, a city whose population has dwindled to less than 20,000 residents and is still <a href="https://www.times-news.com/news/local_news/mill-closing-will-cut-three-more-jobs-for-every-lost/article_0bb854e3-6b9e-55a6-897f-44a579fdf268.html">shedding jobs</a>.</p>

<p>But it&rsquo;s exactly what Maryland is trying to encourage.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19584908/AMANGUM_9247.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="John Chessare, far right, president of the Greater Baltimore Medical Center, leads the executive team through its morning tour of the hospital. The hospital’s focus has changed under Maryland’s global budget: A full emergency room, once a display of financial health, is no longer a good sign. | Andrew Mangum for Vox" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Mangum for Vox" />
<p>Maryland is the site of two big<strong> </strong>experiments in containing health care costs. The first: Since the 1970s, the state has set the prices hospitals can charge for medical care, known as all-payer rate setting.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The second experiment: Since 2014, it&rsquo;s also capped how much health spending can grow overall, including how much revenue each hospital can take in.&nbsp;</p>

<p>These kinds of regulations are common abroad &mdash; France, Japan, Switzerland, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/17/21046874/netherlands-universal-health-insurance-private">the Netherlands</a>, and Germany all have some variation of rate setting and set budgets for health care spending. But here in the United States, Maryland stands alone.&nbsp;</p>

<p>In the past few months, Vox has traveled the world to explore how other countries are developing sustainable, humane health care systems. Our project, <a href="http://www.vox.com/covered">Everybody Covered</a>, was made possible by a grant from The Commonwealth Fund.</p>

<p>Health care costs in the United States are <a href="https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/Health-at-a-Glance-2017-Key-Findings-UNITED-STATES.pdf">double</a> the per capita average in a comparable developed nation, yet outcomes are still worse. <a href="https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-life-expectancy-compare-countries/">People die younger</a>. Infant mortality rates are <a href="https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/infant-mortality-u-s-compare-countries/#item-">higher</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>One reason for all this: perverse incentives for health care providers. In 49 of the 50 states, more sick patients in hospital beds means more revenue. And because the government negotiates lower rates for Medicaid and Medicare, patients on those plans are less desirable than privately insured patients, who can be charged more to boost hospitals&rsquo; bottom line.</p>
<div class="wp-block-vox-media-highlight vox-media-highlight">
<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/1/13/21055327/everybody-covered">Everybody Covered</a><br><em><strong>What the US can learn from other countries&rsquo; health systems</strong></em></p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19593027/_T7A6980.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Ashley Pon for Vox" /><ul class="wp-block-list"><li><a href="https://www.vox.com/health-care/2020/1/13/21028702/medicare-for-all-taiwan-health-insurance">Taiwan’s single-payer success story — and its lessons for America</a></li><li><a href="https://vox.com/2020/1/15/21030568/australia-health-insurance-medicare">Two sisters. Two different journeys through Australia’s health care system.</a></li><li><a href="https://vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/17/21046874/netherlands-universal-health-insurance-private">The Netherlands has universal health insurance — and it’s all private</a></li><li><a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/1/28/21074386/health-care-rationing-britain-nhs-nice-medicare-for-all">In the UK’s health system, rationing isn’t a dirty word</a></li></ul></div>
<p>Maryland is the exception. Hospitals&rsquo; budgets are fixed, as are the rates they can charge for procedures. Once they hit their revenue caps, they don&rsquo;t make more money on having patients in the hospital &mdash; and there is a carrot-and-stick system to ensure hospitals don&rsquo;t exceed those caps. &ldquo;What this is doing is incentivizing hospitals to do the right thing,&rdquo; Bob Atlas, the CEO of the Maryland Hospital Association, said.</p>

<p>Maryland has become a model for other states. Pennsylvania, for instance, has started experimenting with a small-scale version of the global budget system to keep rural hospitals afloat. But there are still problems with its model: On its own, the system hasn&rsquo;t shown insurance premiums dropping, employers can still push more costs onto workers, and drug companies are increasing prices rapidly.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Perhaps more important, adopting Maryland&rsquo;s model nationally won&rsquo;t directly extend health coverage to the almost 27 million uninsured Americans. Still, any attempt to expand health care coverage in America &mdash; whether through Medicare-for-all or a more robust public option&nbsp;&mdash; will have to confront the issue of cost.</p>

<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not the magic bullet,&rdquo; Gerald Kominski, a health policy scholar at the University of California Los Angeles, said of Maryland&rsquo;s approach. Still, he added, &ldquo;Maryland is doing more and providing better incentives than any other individual state.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The system does something else too. By limiting how much revenue hospitals can bring in, it pushes hospitals to look at sickness as something to be treated not just within their walls, but within their community: making sure a heart disease patient has access to healthy food, for example.</p>

<p>This is a &ldquo;public health approach,&rdquo; Leana Wen, Baltimore&rsquo;s former health commissioner and the former president of Planned Parenthood, said. &ldquo;It forces hospitals to pay attention to these social needs.&rdquo;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A history of experimenting with health care cost controls</h2>
<p>On a fall morning, Western Maryland Hospital is sleepy. Only two people are waiting in the emergency department, a room lined with dozens of seats. No one is in the hospital&rsquo;s version of an urgent care clinic.</p>

<p>Many hospital administrators would panic at the sight. But in Maryland, empty hospitals are a good thing.</p>

<p>The state&rsquo;s cost-control experiment goes back to the 1970s, when economists and policy wonks in the United States started panicking about health care costs and Congress passed laws encouraging states to experiment to address the problem.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The US had just dramatically expanded health coverage with the passage of the law that led to Medicaid and Medicare in 1965. When the law took effect, <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4194690/">19 million people were enrolled in Medicare</a>. By the late 1970s, Medicaid <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4194689/">covered more than 20 million Americans</a>. Around that time, health care industry made up <a href="https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-spending-healthcare-changed-time/#item-nhe-trends_total-national-health-expenditures-as-a-percent-of-gross-domestic-product-1970-2018">7 percent of the economy</a>. In a period when inflation was a daily concern, health care spending and hospital costs were growing nearly twice as fast as <a href="https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-spending-healthcare-changed-time/#item-nhe-trends_average-annual-growth-rate-for-select-service-types-1970-2018">the rate of inflation</a>.</p>

<p>Maryland decided to experiment. In 1974, the state allowed a commission to set the rates hospitals could charge for services, rather than letting hospitals individually negotiate with different insurers, which usually drove up costs for privately insured patients. By 1977, Maryland had approval from the federal government to set rates for Medicaid and Medicare as well.&nbsp;</p>

<p>About a dozen states ultimately experimented with rate setting, including New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Washington, and Wisconsin; all but Maryland eventually abandoned it after the spread of HMO plans, which were designed to pay even lower rates than what states were setting.&nbsp;(West Virginia still rate sets for private insurance.)</p>

<p>Maryland stayed the course &mdash; even as health care spending remained high. When the Affordable Care Act passed in 2010, expanding health insurance coverage to 400,000 more <a href="https://www.marylandhealthconnection.gov/nearly-154000-marylanders-enrolled-health-insurance-coverage-2018/">Marylanders</a>, state officials worried costs could get out of control.</p>

<p>&ldquo;The state realized, &lsquo;Oh, my god, if we are trying to keep [health care costs] flat when they have been going up 7 percent per year, we better do something differently,&rsquo;&rdquo; said John Chessare, who runs the Greater Baltimore Medical Center, a hospital in Towson, Maryland.</p>

<p>The all-payer rate-setting system had a big flaw: Although it was effective in Maryland at keeping the cost down for each individual hospital visit, it didn&rsquo;t do anything about the overall number of visits. So there was no incentive for hospitals to stop patients with chronic conditions from getting sick again and getting readmitted. Every readmission meant more money for them.</p>

<p>&ldquo;I found myself talking out of both sides of my mouth,&rdquo; Chessare said. &ldquo;I would talk all day about treating your patient as if they&rsquo;re your loved one, and you don&rsquo;t want your mother in the emergency department if they should be in [a] primary care office. But then I would walk by the ED waiting room as I was going to my car, and if it was empty I would get scared, because that&rsquo;s where the revenue would come from.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19584979/AMANGUM_9185.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="John Chessare checks scorecards on the hospital’s progress in meeting goals of safety and efficiency. | Andrew Mangum for Vox" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Mangum for Vox" />
<p>So in 2010, Maryland got permission from the federal government to change the structure of government-sponsored health insurance. Their innovation: put every hospital in the state under one fixed budget and cap how much revenue each hospital could bring in. If hospitals don&rsquo;t have enough patients to spend their whole budget, they still get to keep the difference.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The system, known as a global budget, wasn&rsquo;t aimed at reducing health care spending, but it could cap how fast it grew at roughly 4 percent. The hope was to encourage hospitals to invest in patients&rsquo; long-term health, and maybe even eventually lower health care spending.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Ronan&rsquo;s hospital in Cumberland, along with seven others, was a guinea pig. The experiment made executives rethink how they operated: In the second year, on rounds during a busy season, Ronan said, he caught himself thinking that the busy hospital was a good thing and had to correct himself.</p>

<p>Instead, readmitting a patient is seen as a problem &mdash; not a source of profit. They do a &ldquo;root cause analysis to understand why the readmission occurred,&rdquo; Ronan said. For example, if a patient with diabetes keeps coming back to the hospital, they ask: Is that person too far from a grocery store to get healthy food? Can they offer transportation? How about access to a community garden?&nbsp;</p>

<p>Chronic illnesses drive up health care spending. They mean constant readmission to the hospital. And before the global budget, hospitals didn&rsquo;t really do much about it, Wen said.</p>

<p>&ldquo;When I was working in Boston or DC, in other exceptional hospitals that were trying to do their best, what I learned was that we were trying to provide the best care to our patients while they were in the hospital with us,&rdquo; Wen said. &ldquo;Once they got discharged, basically it was somebody else&rsquo;s problem.&rdquo;</p>

<p>It made her feel powerless: There was nothing she could do about a patient with heart disease who needed healthier food but lived two bus rides and a long walk from the nearest grocery store. Or a patient with a moldy house who kept coming in with asthma.</p>

<p>Maryland&rsquo;s experiment sought to change that. By 2014, the program had been expanded nearly statewide.&nbsp;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Maryland has tried to expand what caring for a patient means</h2>
<p>In January 2019, Maryland implemented a renewed waiver with the federal government, creating what it calls the total cost of care model. In addition to rate setting and the global budget, it adds incentives to reduce hospital visits for six common health issues &mdash;&nbsp;substance use disorder, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, smoking, and asthma &mdash; in hopes of lowering health care spending overall.</p>

<p>These health problems are endemic in Maryland. In Western Maryland, Ronan says 15 percent of the population his hospital serves has diabetes. Across the state in Baltimore, diabetes and hypertension remain among the biggest <a href="https://health.baltimorecity.gov/sites/default/files/health/attachments/Baltimore%20City%20CHA%20-%20Final%209.20.17.pdf">contributors to deaths</a>. More than 623,000 people in Maryland have diabetes, and more than 1.6 million are prediabetic (the state&rsquo;s population in 2018 was roughly 6 million). An <a href="https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/ccdpc/Reports/Documents/MD-BRFSS/BRFSS_BRIEF_2017-04_Hypertension.pdf">estimated 1.5 million adults</a> in the state have hypertension, and nearly half of them don&rsquo;t have their blood pressure checked regularly.</p>

<p>One of those hypertension patients is 85-year-old Malvernie Davis, who lives in Baltimore. She knows the condition requires her to keep stress at bay. But that was hard to do when she got a water bill from the city this fall for $1,984.74.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Davis, who has lived in her two-story townhouse in northern Baltimore for 55 of her 85 years and had never seen a bill like this, told the city utility there had to have been a mistake. Then the next month&rsquo;s bill came: $2,330.93. The city said it was accurate. A plumber couldn&rsquo;t find anything wrong in the house. By November, she owed $4,768.20.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&ldquo;At this point I&rsquo;m frantic, I&rsquo;m really panicking,&rdquo; said Davis, who lives on a fixed income.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19585010/AMANGUM_9535.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Malvernie Davis, 85, meets with Dante Wojtila, a caseworker with the Housing Upgrades to Benefit Seniors, at her home in Baltimore. The program aims to reduce hospital visits for common chronic conditions. | Andrew Mangum for Vox" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Mangum for Vox" />
<p>She couldn&rsquo;t afford the bill. So the water was shut off. For three months, she relied on bottled water for everything: showering, flushing the toilet, cooking, cleaning. Reliving it still brings tears to her eyes.&nbsp;</p>

<p>And the stress was unimaginable, she said. It also put her at risk of a heart attack, stroke, or aneurysm, common complications for people with hypertension.</p>

<p>On her cousin&rsquo;s advice, Davis called a local group, Housing Upgrades to Benefit Seniors (HUBS). The group is funded by local philanthropists and through a partnership with Sinai Hospital in northern Baltimore. The partnership is one of several programs geared toward senior citizens to keep them from being admitted to the hospital.</p>

<p>Davis, who lives only a mile from the hospital, was eligible. The group sent a plumber, who found a leak in her basement going straight into the ground. &nbsp;</p>

<p>Paying for a plumber isn&rsquo;t a usual precautionary public health measure. But in Maryland, it&rsquo;s an example of the system working. In another state, or under the old system, it&rsquo;s easy to imagine Davis&rsquo;s story eventually leading a health problem and ending with an expensive hospital stay; her doctors wouldn&rsquo;t have known about the leak, and the health system wouldn&rsquo;t have had to fix it. But they did &mdash; and things are back to normal. Davis is feeling better these days.</p>

<p>Across the state, there are other examples of this kind of everyday help. Other hospitals, like in Western Maryland or at Greater Baltimore Medical Center, offer meal preparation or transportation to doctor appointments. Sinai Hospital&rsquo;s parent company, Lifebridge, has a caseworker program for patients with diabetes.</p>

<p>One of those case managers, Gwen Mayo, makes a weekly visit to Shirley Crowder&rsquo;s apartment in a housing tower across the street from Sinai, less than a mile from Davis&rsquo;s home.</p>

<p>Crowder is one of Mayo&rsquo;s favorite stops. As she entered the building, she could hear WBLS, a New York City urban adult contemporary radio station, blaring from a speaker in the apartment. She knocked on Crowder&rsquo;s front door, which has a sign for homemade ice pops. Mayo has tried them: &ldquo;Oh, they&rsquo;re good,&rdquo; she said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At 70 years old, Crowder has been living with diabetes for 33 years, a disease that led to the amputation of both her legs. She lives alone, mobile in an electric wheelchair. At least once a year, and sometimes more, she ends up on an emergency visit to the hospital because of her diabetes.</p>

<p>Last May, she connected with Mayo as part of a home care program Sinai now offers for diabetic patients. By November, she hadn&rsquo;t been readmitted for her diabetes.</p>

<p>On the day of our visit, Mayo had good news: For months she had been working with the state on Crowder&rsquo;s behalf to get her medical assistance. Crowder lost the assistance last year after a mix-up over her son&rsquo;s will, and racked up $50,000 in medical bills. But their appeal to the state had just gone through, and she&rsquo;d get the assistance back.&nbsp;</p>

<p>This is their weekly routine. Mayo pays a visit, she gives updates, they talk through doctor appointments, and Mayo asks if Crowder is eating.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19585073/AMANGUM_9457.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Shirley Crowder speaks with Gwen Mayo during her weekly home care meeting. Mayo visits Crowder frequently to make sure she’s caring for her diabetes. | Andrew Mangum for Vox" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Mangum for Vox" />
<p>Crowder told Mayo that she hates eating. She wasn&rsquo;t feeling well on the day we stopped by, but her blood sugar levels were stable. There was a full rotisserie chicken on her table, but she had barely eaten for several days.</p>

<p>On any given day, Crowder&rsquo;s blood sugar can fluctuate between critical lows and critical highs. For the past several months, Mayo had been working with Crowder, a self-proclaimed &ldquo;stubborn&rdquo; woman, to regulate her diet. On that day, they struck a deal.</p>

<p>&ldquo;At least two days a week you have to eat within an hour of when you get up,&rdquo; Mayo said, filling out a worksheet. &ldquo;We can compromise. We can start with one day.&rdquo;</p>

<p>&ldquo;Well, that&rsquo;s really not fair, because I&rsquo;m up at 2 am,&rdquo; Crowder pleaded. &ldquo;Who wants to eat at 2 am?&rdquo;</p>

<p>&ldquo;We&rsquo;re going to say by 7 am.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Crowder pauses. &ldquo;What if I&rsquo;m not awake by 7 am?&rdquo;</p>

<p>&ldquo;You better tell Alexa to start screaming at 6:45.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p>

<p>&ldquo;Make it 8 am.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Mayo conceded. &ldquo;8 am. Every Sunday.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Crowder accepted: &ldquo;I&rsquo;ll eat a bowl of cereal.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The goal of the back-and-forth is simple: &ldquo;We&rsquo;re not letting her go back to the hospital,&rdquo; Mayo told me. &ldquo;Not as long as I&rsquo;m here.&rdquo;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">One big question for Maryland: Are consumers seeing any savings?</h2>
<p>In the best-case scenario of Maryland&rsquo;s global budgeting system, hospitals will invest in community health and advanced primary care, successfully keeping people out of their doors and reducing health care spending. They won&rsquo;t just shift the spending to facilities outside their own budgets, like primary care or skilled nursing facilities. And they&rsquo;ll prioritize public health, keeping people like Davis and Crowder healthy at home.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Maryland&rsquo;s system is still new, and it&rsquo;s constantly evolving, which makes it hard to evaluate whether all of this is working. <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/2293084">One 2015 study</a>, co-authored by Josh Sharfstein, the former secretary of the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene who helped craft the global budget system, found readmission rates decreased for Medicare patients in the first year of implementing the global budget system throughout the state.</p>

<p>A more recent study, conducted in 2018, did not find consistent evidence that the global budget&nbsp;reduced hospital use or increased primary care visits for <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2668632">Medicare beneficiaries</a> after two years. It&rsquo;s true the system is broader than just Medicare, but there isn&rsquo;t a consensus on whether it&rsquo;s actually reducing health spending.&nbsp;</p>

<p>One potential reason: Drug costs play a big role in those expenditures, and the global budget does not regulate how much pharmaceutical companies charge for drug prices on the whole. (Maryland passed a law in 2019 to regulate some expensive drug prices for government employees that will <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2019/04/11/pharma-lobbyists-flooded-maryland-to-block-a-drug-pricing-bill-opponents-pushed-back-and-won/">take effect in 2022</a> at the latest.)</p>

<p>&ldquo;My takeaway message is that Maryland continues to be the most innovative state, but Maryland&rsquo;s experience over 42 years with all-payer rate setting shows that there are still challenges to bringing down health care spending,&rdquo; Kominski, the UCLA health policy scholar, told me.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-pullquote alignleft"><blockquote><p>“It’s not the magic bullet &#8230; [but] Maryland is doing more and providing better incentives than any other individual state”</p></blockquote></figure>
<p>The hospitals themselves are quick to share their successes. Ronan, in western Maryland, came to our meeting with a thick packet &mdash; copies of slides he&rsquo;d presented around the country to tout global budgeting. Readmission rates at the hospital dropped 26 percent between 2011 and 2018, he pointed out. The hospital&rsquo;s chief financial officer, Kim Repac, returned from the printer with the statistics from 2019: Readmission went down 30 percent in the past eight years, and emergency department visits dropped nearly 20 percent.</p>

<p>But they agree there&rsquo;s still room for improvement. Some experts worry about routine surgeries being outsourced to ambulatory surgical centers, clinics outside of the hospital that don&rsquo;t fall under the global budgets. Primary care also isn&rsquo;t part of the global budget, and most doctors still charge a fee per service they perform. While trying to reduce unnecessary testing, to reduce both costs and patients&rsquo; exposure to radiation, hospital administrators encountered a challenge with radiologists.</p>

<p>The hospital administrators thought radiologists were testing too much: &ldquo;It was just unnecessary,&rdquo; Ronan said. &ldquo;You had a test on a Monday and they would reorder the test on Wednesday. Nothing would change.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But the radiologists had a different mindset. They were practicing what&rsquo;s called &ldquo;defensive medicine&rdquo; &mdash; covering all their bases to ensure they don&rsquo;t get sued for malpractice. Since doctors, unlike hospitals in Maryland, get paid per service, they have an incentive to avoid taking Medicaid patients at all due to the lower reimbursement rates.</p>

<p>Hospitals have been trying to share the savings with doctors or primary care practices. But it&rsquo;s still a &ldquo;failure&rdquo; of the system, Chessare said. &ldquo;Physicians still run away from poor people.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But the Maryland system&rsquo;s most conspicuous failing is that cost savings don&rsquo;t seem to be getting passed on to consumers.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>

<p>Private insurers in Maryland are <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2015.1379?siteid=healthaff&amp;keytype=ref&amp;ijkey=HTJz6HvLSIf0E">paying among the lowest rates for health care services</a> because of the rate-setting system. But so far, Maryland&rsquo;s private insurance premiums, both on Obamacare&rsquo;s individual insurance marketplace and for employer-based insurance, have risen in line with the rest of the nation.&nbsp;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19620151/private_insurance_chart_final.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Christina Animashaun/Vox" />
<p>Between 2014 and 2020, average premiums in the marketplace went up from $220 to $397 &mdash; below the national average but growing at roughly the same pace, <a href="https://www.kff.org/health-reform/state-indicator/marketplace-average-benchmark-premiums/?currentTimeframe=0&amp;selectedRows=%7B%22states%22:%7B%22all%22:%7B%7D%7D,%22wrapups%22:%7B%22united-states%22:%7B%7D%7D%7D&amp;sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D">according to Kaiser Family Foundation data</a>. The state had to implement a separate $380 million reinsurance program to shore up the markets in 2018, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/marylands-health-care-premiums-to-decline-for-second-year/2019/09/19/6bb299a6-db0d-11e9-a688-303693fb4b0b_story.html">helping bring down premiums over the past two years</a>.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Our model is generating benefits to private insurance companies, but that doesn&rsquo;t tie directly to the cost of premiums,&rdquo; Katie Wunderlich, with the Health Services Cost Review Commission, said.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Maryland’s system doesn’t solve one big problem: Coverage</h2>
<p>There&rsquo;s one more shortcoming to note: Maryland&rsquo;s reforms don&rsquo;t do anything directly to address the problem of the uninsured.</p>

<p>&ldquo;It has nothing to do with that,&rdquo; Chessare said. &ldquo;There&rsquo;s not anything about the global budget that makes us&rdquo; sign<strong> </strong>people up on health insurance.</p>

<p>Six percent of Maryland residents are uninsured, which is lower than the national average of 9 percent. But that difference isn&rsquo;t because of its experiments around cost containment. The state expanded Medicaid, and during a four-year period between 2013 and 2017, around 400,000 people &mdash; a 53 percent increase.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19585095/AMANGUM_9357.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Daryl Shankland, from North Carolina, seen after a full knee replacement surgery at the Greater Baltimore Medical Center. | Andrew Mangum for Vox" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Mangum for Vox" />
<p>Getting coverage to the last 6 percent will take additional measures. Chessare supports a single-payer universal health care program, as has been proposed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) &mdash; a program that would move every single adult and child in the United States onto a Medicare-like government program, virtually eliminating private health insurance.</p>

<p>Every country that has succeeded with universal coverage has also had to address health care spending. So while Maryland&rsquo;s reforms are only a piece of the health care coverage puzzle, their efforts around cost containment are still a very big piece. The Medicare-for-all bills sponsored by Sanders and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) address health care spending. Jayapal&rsquo;s includes a variation of the global budget that Maryland has implemented &mdash; one with much more conservative budget caps.</p>

<p>Progressive lawmakers have been wrestling with health care spending for a long time. When President Jimmy Carter came into office in 1977, among his first directives was calling on Congress to pass mandatory revenue controls for hospitals. He advocated for legislation that was estimated to save $1.4 billion in federal spending.</p>

<p>Carter had promised a universal national health care system, and he saw containing the cost of health care as a necessary first step: &ldquo;I am determined, for example, to phase in a workable program of national health insurance,&rdquo; Carter <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1977/04/26/archives/carter-proposes-law-for-tough-controls-on-hospital-charges-he-seeks.html">told the New York Times when he introduced his initiative</a>. &ldquo;But with current inflation, the cost of any national health insurance program the Administration and the Congress will develop will double in just five years.&rdquo;</p>

<p>He was faced with immediate political blowback. Hospitals launched a campaign against the measure, arguing for voluntary price controls; they didn&rsquo;t want the federal government telling them how much revenue they could bring in. Carter&rsquo;s idea ultimately failed.</p>

<p>It took until 1993 for Democrats in Congress to try again to revive universal health coverage. And it would be another 17 years until Obama signed the Affordable Care Act into law. More than 40 years after Carter&rsquo;s proposal to cap hospital revenue, true universal health coverage is still a dream for Democrats. And his vision of cost control is reality in just one place: Maryland.</p>

<p>Maryland&rsquo;s model, at its core, is an acknowledgment that incentive structures in American health care are fundamentally broken. And that dysfunction explains why it&rsquo;s so hard to insure everyone in the United States.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19585089/AMANGUM_9211.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Every morning, John Chessare and his executive team staff do rounds at the Greater Baltimore Medical Center, stopping in every wing to get readouts from the nurses. Each department has different daily goals to ensure the hospital is operating safely and efficiently. | Andrew Mangum for Vox" data-portal-copyright="Andrew Mangum for Vox" />
<p>&ldquo;We don&rsquo;t like health planning in our country,&rdquo; Chessare said. &ldquo;If you say health care is a right, your next question ought to be, what is the best way to deliver care without bankrupting the society? Let&rsquo;s design an efficient system to deliver better health and better care. In the United States, we don&rsquo;t want to have that conversation.</p>

<p class="has-end-mark">&ldquo;And the rest of the world laughs at us because they cover all their citizens and their outcomes are as good as ours.&rdquo;</p>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<p><a href="https://www.andrewdmangum.com/"><em><strong>Andrew Mangum</strong></em></a><em> is an editorial photographer based in Baltimore.</em></p>

<p><em>The Everybody Covered project can be found at&nbsp;</em><a href="http://vox.com/covered"><em><strong>vox.com/covered</strong></em></a><em>. This series was made possible by a grant from The Commonwealth Fund. All content is editorially independent and produced by our journalists.</em></p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Nicole Narea</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Tara Golshan</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Bernie Sanders’s immigration plan puts the rights of workers into focus]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/7/20951821/bernie-sanders-immigration-plan-worker-rights-legalization-labor" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/7/20951821/bernie-sanders-immigration-plan-worker-rights-legalization-labor</id>
			<updated>2019-11-20T17:11:31-05:00</updated>
			<published>2019-11-07T06:00:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="2020 Presidential Election" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Bernie Sanders" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Immigration" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Bernie Sanders&#8217;s immigration platform, released Thursday, is a classic Bernie Sanders plan: a policy agenda that reflects demands from activists on the left while still framing immigration as part of his signature issue of workers&#8217; rights. Sanders&#8217;s progressive bona fides on immigration have been questioned in the past. In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks to a large crowd at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, Sunday, November 3, 2019. | Scott Takushi / MediaNews Group / St. Paul Pioneer Press via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Scott Takushi / MediaNews Group / St. Paul Pioneer Press via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19353839/1185435586.jpg.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks to a large crowd at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, Sunday, November 3, 2019. | Scott Takushi / MediaNews Group / St. Paul Pioneer Press via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://berniesanders.com/issues/welcoming-and-safe-america-all/">Bernie Sanders&rsquo;s immigration platform</a>, released Thursday,<strong> </strong>is a classic Bernie Sanders plan:<strong> </strong>a policy agenda that reflects demands from activists on the left while still framing immigration as part of his signature issue of workers&rsquo; rights.</p>

<p>Sanders&rsquo;s progressive bona fides on immigration have been questioned in the past.</p>

<p>In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton criticized the senator for voting against comprehensive immigration reform in 2007 &mdash; a bill that would have opened a pathway to citizenship for 12 million undocumented immigrants while investing in border security. (Sanders, who has long supported a pathway to citizenship, says he voted against the bill because of the lack of labor protections in the bill&rsquo;s guest worker provisions.)<strong> </strong></p>

<p>He has also repeatedly warned against &ldquo;open borders,&rdquo; which he calls a &ldquo;<a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/7/29/9048401/bernie-sanders-open-borders">Koch brothers proposal</a>,&rdquo; arguing it would depress wages for American workers.</p>

<p>&ldquo;If you open the borders, my God, there&rsquo;s a lot of poverty in this world, and you&rsquo;re going to have people from all over the world,&rdquo; <a href="https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1114971900269219841?s=20">Sanders said</a> at an April town hall in Iowa. &ldquo;And I don&rsquo;t think that&rsquo;s something that we can do at this point. Can&rsquo;t do it.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Sanders&rsquo;s long track record defending labor interests<strong> </strong>has seemingly sometimes stood in opposition to his otherwise pro-immigrant rhetoric. His policy platform is an attempt to reconcile the two: a worker-centric immigration agenda that bolsters immigrants&rsquo; labor rights and offers them a part of the social safety net through programs like Medicare-for-all.</p>

<p>The most sweeping part of the plan: a proposal to use<strong> </strong>executive action to protect unauthorized immigrants who have lived in the US for more than five years from deportation, which, according to the Pew Research Center&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2011/12/01/unauthorized-immigrants-length-of-residency-patterns-of-parenthood/">estimate</a>, would cover almost 9 million people &mdash; more than any other executive action plan in the field.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Sanders would use executive action liberally</h2>
<p>Sanders&rsquo;s plan, like those of the rest of the Democratic field, relies on sweeping executive actions to scale back Trump&rsquo;s immigration enforcement regime.</p>

<p>If<strong> </strong>Democrats win the White House and Republicans keep the Senate in 2020, the long congressional impasse on comprehensive immigration reform will probably continue. Congress has had some <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/10/31/20938968/bipartisan-agriculture-farmworker-legalization-immigrant-bill">recent movement</a> on bipartisan bills tackling smaller slices of the legal immigration system; one measure would amend <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/19/20873985/bipartisan-immigration-green-card-bill-senate">per-country caps on green cards</a>, but it has yet to pass the Senate.</p>

<p>That means any change to immigration policy will likely come from the president.</p>

<p>In addition to protecting millions of unauthorized immigrants from deportation through executive and legislative action, Sanders&rsquo;s plan calls for reversing several unpopular Trump administration policies, including the travel ban that continues to block individuals from seven countries from entering the US. It would also reverse policies targeting asylum seekers, such as the &ldquo;Remain in Mexico&rdquo; policy under which migrants have been sent back to Mexico to await decisions on their immigration cases.</p>

<p>Like other candidates, Sanders proposes raising the number of refugees the US admits annually. Unlike other candidates, he<strong> </strong>does not specify a number. Trump had lowered the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/26/20886038/trump-refugee-cap-executive-order">cap on refugee admissions</a> to a record low of 18,000 this year. Sen. Cory Booker and former US housing secretary Juli&aacute;n Castro <a href="https://issues.juliancastro.com/people-first-immigration/">have proposed</a> reverting to the pre-Trump refugee cap of 110,000, but Sen. Elizabeth Warren would <a href="https://medium.com/@teamwarren/a-fair-and-welcoming-immigration-system-8fff69cd674e">go even further,</a> setting the cap at 125,000 initially and increasing it to 175,000 by the end of her first term.</p>

<p>And Sanders calls for ending immigration<strong> </strong>detention for all but a few immigrants with records of violent crimes or in other specific circumstances. (Under the Obama administration, however, it <a href="https://trac.syr.edu/immigration/reports/349/">proved difficult</a> to determine uniformly what constituted a serious crime that would merit detention.)</p>

<p>He would also restore programs that have historically offered legal protection to hundreds of thousands of immigrants that Trump has tried to terminate, including Temporary Protected Status, which the US has conferred on citizens of countries that have suffered from catastrophic events such as natural disasters or armed conflict, and Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, which has allowed almost 800,000 unauthorized immigrants who arrived as children to live and work in the US legally.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Sanders’s plan is focused on immigrant labor</h2>
<p>Candidates have mostly focused on immigrants&rsquo; civil rights and Trump&rsquo;s agenda, rather than the economic role immigration can play.</p>

<p>But Sanders, whose campaign has centered on curbing income inequality and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/10/14/20912221/bernie-sanders-corporate-accountability-ftc-merger-tax">empowering workers</a>, gives particular attention to immigrants&rsquo; labor rights.</p>

<p>Sanders claims that unauthorized immigrants are particularly vulnerable to abuses at the hands of employers because they might fear retaliation that could put them at risk for deportation. He consequently suggests redirecting funding from enforcing immigration laws against workers to holding their employers accountable for labor law violations. (The plan does not mention whether that will include preventing employers from hiring unauthorized workers in the first place.)</p>

<p>That message has taken on new urgency in light of Trump administration immigration raids targeting unauthorized workers over the past year. In one raid in August, <a href="https://www.apnews.com/bbcef8ddae4e4303983c91880559cf23">680 workers</a> were arrested at two Mississippi poultry plants.</p>

<p>He suggests offering immigrant workers whistleblower protections if they speak up about workplace abuses and improving labor standards for farmworkers, domestic workers, gig economy workers and those employed in other underregulated industries. He would also allow them to participate in Medicare-for-all and <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/6/23/18714615/bernie-sanders-free-college-for-all-2020-student-loan-debt">College for All</a>, his bill to<strong> </strong>make public colleges and universities tuition- and debt-free.</p>

<p>The US also needs a functioning legal immigration system, Sanders says.</p>

<p>Though application backlogs have piled up under Trump, driving up wait times for visas and green cards, some of the issues with the current system predate his administration. Sanders proposes to provide more funding to US Citizenship and Immigration Services and naturalization programs, as well as&nbsp;overhauling the visa system for workers and their families.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Democrats have an easy unifying message on immigration: They’re anti-Trump</h2>
<p>In some ways, Trump has made it easy for Democrats to display a unified front on immigration: They all think some kind of &ldquo;comprehensive immigration reform&rdquo; is necessary. Candidates&rsquo; first priority is to stop Trump&rsquo;s immigration agenda, which has left <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/us/illegal-immigrants-population-study.html">roughly 11 million undocumented immigrants</a> living under the fear of deportation, 3.6 million of whom were brought to the United States as children.</p>

<p>Legalizing all unauthorized immigrants was once considered a &ldquo;third rail&rdquo; in Democratic politics; Republicans decried it as amnesty, and even&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/02/19/694804917/democrats-used-to-talk-about-criminal-immigrants-so-what-changed-the-party">moderate Democrats</a>&nbsp;worried it would send the wrong message to people living unlawfully in the United States.</p>

<p>Now it&rsquo;s less controversial:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/more-80-americans-want-undocumented-immigrants-have-chance-become-us-citizens-1316889">Public opinion shows</a>&nbsp;that conservatives are losing the argument about a path to citizenship. Every candidate supports a path to citizenship for the people currently living in the United States without papers &mdash; not just those who came in as children.&nbsp;</p>

<p>In Congress, House Democrats have rallied around the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/6/4/18650672/house-democrats-dream-and-promise-act">Dream and Promise Act</a>,&nbsp;a pathway to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants who came to the US as children and those with temporary humanitarian protections.</p>

<p>On the campaign trail, Sanders&rsquo;s plan is joining a debate that has moved further to the left. Castro, the only Latino candidate in the Democratic primary, was first to propose a radical reshaping of immigration enforcement by calling to repeal the provision that makes &ldquo;illegal entry&rdquo; into the US a federal crime. (Others, including Sanders, Warren, and Sen. Kamala Harris, followed suit.) The&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/6/26/18760665/1325-immigration-castro-democratic-debate">law has been on the books for decades</a>&nbsp;but was rarely enforced until the George W. Bush administration, when criminal prosecution of unauthorized immigrants for illegal entry became increasingly common.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-democratic-presidential-candidates-2020-pasadena-immigration-20190531-story.html">Sanders, Castro, and Harris</a> have publicly said&nbsp;they would in their first 100 days in office pursue legislation to provide a path to citizenship for the 11 million unauthorized immigrants currently living in the United States.</p>

<p>New dividing lines are emerging in the party, particularly on <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/31/20749563/democratic-debate-biden-immigration">border security and deportation</a>. No Democrat actually supports an &ldquo;open borders&rdquo; policy, no matter what Trump claims; Sanders himself has made that clear. But so far, the candidates mostly haven&rsquo;t gotten into details about who should be deported and who should be allowed into the US.</p>

<p>Former Vice President Joe Biden, and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg have yet to release formal, comprehensive immigration plans, suggesting that some candidates are more willing to speak in generalities on the subject rather than specifics.</p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Tara Golshan</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Kentucky’s Republican governor Matt Bevin lost reelection, but isn’t conceding just yet]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/6/20952144/kentucky-republican-governor-matt-bevin-recanvass-concession" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/6/20952144/kentucky-republican-governor-matt-bevin-recanvass-concession</id>
			<updated>2019-11-06T19:06:44-05:00</updated>
			<published>2019-11-06T18:30:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Kentucky&#8217;s Republican governor Matt Bevin lost reelection to Democrat Andy Beshear Tuesday, but he&#8217;s refusing to concede the election &#8212; all while his party floats a number of schemes, some more harebrained than others, to give him one last shot. The race was extremely close; Beshear eked out a win by roughly 5,000 votes &#8212; [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="Gov. Matt Bevin of Kentucky speaks with the media prior to a campaign rally for US President Donald Trump on November 4, 2019 in Lexington, Kentucky. | Bryan Woolston/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Bryan Woolston/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19353665/1180029745.jpg.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Gov. Matt Bevin of Kentucky speaks with the media prior to a campaign rally for US President Donald Trump on November 4, 2019 in Lexington, Kentucky. | Bryan Woolston/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Kentucky&rsquo;s Republican governor Matt Bevin <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20948386/kentucky-governor-live-results">lost reelection to Democrat Andy Beshear</a> Tuesday, but he&rsquo;s refusing to concede the election &mdash; all while his party floats a number of schemes, some <a href="https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1192125510316376064">more harebrained</a> than others, to give him one last shot.<strong> </strong></p>

<p>The race was extremely close; Beshear eked out a win by roughly 5,000 votes &mdash; with 49.19 percent of the vote to Bevin&rsquo;s 48.83 percent. The Libertarian candidate John Hicks received 1.97&nbsp;percent of the vote. The state Democratic Party and Beshear have already declared victory and <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2019/11/05/allison-grimes-tells-cnn-her-office-declared-beshear-kentuckys-winner/4173273002/">Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes</a>, Kentucky&rsquo;s chief election officer, also deemed Beshear the victor on Wednesday.</p>

<p>&ldquo;My expectation is that [Bevin]&nbsp;will honor the election that was held tonight,&rdquo; Beshear said in his victory speech on election night. &ldquo;That he will help us make this transition. And I&rsquo;ll tell you what, we will be ready for that first day in office, and I look forward to it.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But Bevin isn&rsquo;t accepting the results just yet, calling it a &ldquo;close, close race.&rdquo; He says he&rsquo;ll take steps to ensure the results are accurate and claims there were reported &ldquo;irregularities&rdquo; &mdash; though unspecified&nbsp;&mdash; with voting in the state. It&rsquo;s worth noting that Bevin, a much-disliked politician, was the only Republican to lose a statewide race in Kentucky this year; Republicans actually flipped two state positions &mdash; attorney general and secretary of state.</p>

<p>Bevin has the backing of Republican state Senate President Robert Stivers, who called Bevin&rsquo;s refusal to concede &ldquo;appropriate&rdquo; and even <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/">floated the idea of using an extremely outdated constitutional provision</a> that could ultimately allow the state&rsquo;s Republican-controlled Legislature to decide the election results. (More on that below.)</p>

<p>On Wednesday, Bevin&rsquo;s campaign announced that its first step would be to pursue a recanvassing of the results, a process that involves making sure machines in every county have accurately calculated vote totals and transferred them to the state. A recanvassing of votes is notably different from a recount, in which every vote cast is counted again. Kentucky does not have an automatic recount law on the books.</p>

<p>Recounts very rarely actually change election results, as Democrats found out in two highly contested races in <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/8/18075252/florida-recount-midterms-nelson-scott-gillum-desantis">Florida just last year</a>. <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/recounts-rarely-reverse-election-results/">As FiveThirtyEight reported in 2016</a>, between 2000 and 2015, only three out of 27 recounts in statewide general elections actually changed the final result: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/01/us/politics/01minnesota.html">Al Franken&rsquo;s</a> 2008 US Senate race, Thomas Salmon&rsquo;s <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/21/AR2006122100752.html">2006 auditor election</a> in Vermont,&nbsp;and Washington state&rsquo;s 2004 gubernatorial race that gave <a href="http://www.seattlepi.com/local/article/Judge-upholds-Gregoire-s-election-Rossi-won-t-1175262.php">Christine Gregoire the win</a>.</p>

<p>That&rsquo;s not stopping Bevin from trying or Republicans from gaming out obscure ways they could ensure a Republican in the governor&rsquo;s mansion.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bevin has asked for a “recanvass” of the votes. That’s different from a recount in Kentucky.</h2>
<p>Lundergan Grimes confirmed Wednesday that her office had received the recanvassing request from Bevin&rsquo;s campaign.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter alignnone"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My office has received a recanvass request from <a href="https://twitter.com/GovMattBevin?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@GovMattBevin</a>. The recanvass will be conducted Thursday, Nov. 14th at 9:00 a.m. <a href="https://t.co/lwpCTk8ncm">pic.twitter.com/lwpCTk8ncm</a></p>&mdash; Secretary of State Alison L. Grimes (2012–2020) (@KySecofState) <a href="https://twitter.com/KySecofState/status/1192165262998589440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 6, 2019</a></blockquote>
</div></figure>
<p>In Kentucky, this is the first action a candidate would take to reevaluate results that are particularly close. What this means, plainly, is that the county election boards will examine the vote totals they received from each machine, make sure they were added correctly, and confirm that those figures were accurately shared with the state.</p>

<p>As Lundergan Grimes indicated, this process is expected to take place next Thursday, November 14. Both campaigns can send representation to observe the recanvassing as it happens.</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s a process Bevin has participated in before. Bevin was actually part of another recanvassing during the 2015 election, when his opponent in the Republican gubernatorial primary, Rep. James Comer, called for one. That effort did not ultimately change the outcome and, as Beshear&rsquo;s campaign was quick to point out on Wednesday, <a href="https://www.wcpo.com/news/state/state-kentucky/here-are-matt-bevins-options-for-appealing-his-election-loss-to-andy-beshear">no recanvassings have ever led to a different result</a>.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.uky.edu/electionlaw/analysis/kentuckys-post-election-procedure-close-races-2019-ky-gov-edition">According to the University of Kentucky&rsquo;s Election Law Society</a>, there have been &ldquo;modest&rdquo; changes at best in the vote totals observed following past recanvassings, and the likelihood of 5,000 votes swinging a different way is exceedingly low.</p>

<p>A recanvassing, however, is not the same as a recount. While some states, <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/automatic-recount-thresholds.aspx">including Alabama and Florida</a>, will kick off a recount immediately if the vote totals for a position are within a specific margin of one another, Kentucky&rsquo;s elections don&rsquo;t operate that way.</p>

<p>And the state doesn&rsquo;t make recounts easy to do.</p>

<p>Typically, a candidate would only be able to file for a recount if their campaign petitioned Franklin County Circuit Court to conduct one. If that petition is granted, the candidate would then have to fund the recount themselves and a judge would conduct it. Even then, the governor and lieutenant governor&rsquo;s races are explicitly left out of the statute that outlines the procedure for recounts. <a href="https://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Secretary-of-State-talks-re-canvassing-contesting-election-results-564560581.html">According to the secretary of state</a>, Bevin would have to file a contest of the election in order to prompt a recount.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Republicans are floating a bonkers and unlikely way to have the Republican statehouse decide the election outcome</h2>
<p>While recanvassing is a pretty straightforward process, the Republican head of the Kentucky State Senate muddied the waters a bit when he claimed on Tuesday evening that the state&rsquo;s legislature could determine the outcome of the election.</p>

<p>As vote totals rolled in, Senate leader Robert Stivers suggested that the results of this race could ultimately come before state lawmakers, a process that hasn&rsquo;t been used to settle an election since 1899.</p>

<p>While Stivers may have gotten ahead of himself, it&rsquo;s true that the legislature could have a role to play if Bevin decides to contest this election. In order to get to that point, a recanvassing would need to take place first and the results would need to be certified by the State Board of Elections. The board is set to certify these results in late November.</p>

<p>Within 30 days of the results getting certified, Bevin has the ability to contest it, though he&rsquo;d have to specify exact reasons for why he was doing so, <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/kentucky-governors-election-race-recount-look-what-happens-now/4172935002/">the Courier Journal notes</a>:</p>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-none is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>Under this contest, the candidate challenging the results&nbsp;must specify the grounds for the action, such as&nbsp;a violation of campaign finance rules or specific problems when it comes to how ballots were cast.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If the contest moves forward, lawmakers would assemble an 11-person panel to hear the arguments on it and render a verdict. Once a contest has been filed, a recount could begin as well. According to a more than century-old constitutional provision, the full legislature would then weigh the committee&rsquo;s decision and come to its own conclusion:</p>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote has-text-align-none is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p>Contested elections for Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be determined by both Houses of the General Assembly, according to such regulations as may be established by law.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The language in the provision itself is a testament to how outdated it is: Kentucky doesn&rsquo;t hold elections for lieutenant governor separately anymore &mdash; they are added as a joint ticket with the party nominee for governor, the result of a 1992 state constitutional amendment.</p>

<p>This is an extremely risky road for Republicans to go down &mdash; one that implies explicitly overturning the results of a democratic election. But it&rsquo;s one that Stivers, at least, seems open to. Tuesday night, <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/">he argued that had the Libertarian candidate not run, Bevin would have won</a>.</p>

<p>Even if this doesn&rsquo;t happen, Democrats in the state are still on guard, worried that the Republican state legislature could use a special legislative session to strip Beshear of key executive powers before he is sworn in &mdash; a playbook Republicans legislators have used in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan.</p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Tara Golshan</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Matt Bevin’s defeat in Kentucky wasn’t just about him]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2019/11/6/20951510/matt-bevin-kentucky-governor-loss-beshear-medicaid-teacher" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2019/11/6/20951510/matt-bevin-kentucky-governor-loss-beshear-medicaid-teacher</id>
			<updated>2019-11-06T13:57:19-05:00</updated>
			<published>2019-11-06T14:10:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Democrat Andy Beshear&#8217;s big victory in the Kentucky governor&#8217;s race Tuesday night doesn&#8217;t mean that Democrats are suddenly competitive in Kentucky for the 2020 presidential race. Nor does it mean that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell should be very afraid. Yes, Beshear beat sitting Republican governor Matt Bevin in a deep-red state where Donald Trump [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
							<content type="html">
											<![CDATA[

						
<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="US President Donald Trump (R) smiles behind Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin during a rally at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky on November 4, 2019.  | MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19351682/1179966604.jpg.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	US President Donald Trump (R) smiles behind Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin during a rally at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky on November 4, 2019.  | MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Democrat Andy Beshear&rsquo;s big victory in the Kentucky governor&rsquo;s race Tuesday night doesn&rsquo;t mean that Democrats are suddenly competitive in Kentucky for the 2020 presidential race. Nor does it mean that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell should be very afraid.</p>

<p>Yes, Beshear beat sitting Republican governor Matt Bevin in a deep-red state where Donald Trump won by 30 points. And yes, McConnell is up for reelection next year, but the Republican Party is still very powerful in Kentucky, and Tuesday&rsquo;s election in Kentucky was by no means a blowout for Democrats.</p>

<p>Statewide, Republicans flipped two races &mdash; the Attorney General and Secretary of State. They kept their supermajorities in the state legislature; Trump remains <a href="https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/">popular in the state</a>. This governor&rsquo;s race was about the governor, and governor Bevin is incredibly unpopular. That&rsquo;s a major reason why Bevin &mdash; with Trump&rsquo;s cooperation &mdash; tried to make the race a referendum on Trump.</p>

<p>But it&rsquo;s also wrong to assume Bevin&rsquo;s loss was just about him. His defeat was a defeat for some of the core issues in the Republican Party. Bevin is politically toxic because for four years he aggressively pushed a pretty standard conservative agenda. He signed laws to mandate ultrasounds and require that health care providers show patients pictures of fetuses before performing an&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/e67324b7e0a640fcadb8ef18af0a647c">abortion.</a> The state passed conservative labor laws, including a &ldquo;right to work&rdquo; policy to undercut unions, and repealed the prevailing wage, which guaranteed public works employees base salaries. Bevin&nbsp;<a href="https://wfpl.org/kentucky-primary-2019-when-it-comes-to-school-choice-bevin-stands-alone/">allowed charter schools to come to Kentucky</a>&nbsp;while proposing cuts to public schools.</p>

<p>At the center of Bevin&rsquo;s agenda were two big policy pushes that came to define his tenure: cuts to Medicaid and cuts to retirement benefits.</p>

<p>Bevin made Kentucky&rsquo;s vastly underfunded pension system, one that since 2000 has accumulated&nbsp;<a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/17/kentucky-pension-crisis-reasons-how-we-got-here/2317233002/">$43 billion in debt</a>, a policy priority by pushing a reform that cut pensions for new teachers and funding for public schools, resulting in teacher protests. Earlier this year, Kentucky teachers called in sick en masse, shutting down every public school in the state.</p>

<p>Bevin also successfully pursued a waiver from the Trump administration to add work requirements, premiums, and co-payments to the state&rsquo;s Medicaid program, which covers 1.2 million people in Kentucky. Kentucky expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, extending health care to roughly 400,000 people. As&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/25/17502484/kentucky-medicaid-expansion-work-requirements-lawsuit">Dylan Scott explained for Vox</a>, there&rsquo;s a lot of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/11/16763856/voxcare-medicaid-work-requirements">evidence</a>&nbsp;that most Medicaid recipients do work, but many&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/11/17219196/medicaid-cuts-work-requirement-states-cbpp">could still lose their coverage</a>&nbsp;because the requirements aren&rsquo;t structured to address the irregularities of low income work. Bevin threatened to end Medicaid expansion in the state altogether if he wasn&rsquo;t able to enact his work requirement policy, <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-waiver-tracker-approved-and-pending-section-1115-waivers-by-state/">which stalled in the courts.</a></p>

<p>Bevin has billed his work requirements as an <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/01/13/577833692/kentucky-gov-matt-bevin-on-requiring-medicaid-recipients-to-work">anti-poverty measure</a>, as well as a way to make Medicaid expansion more fiscally responsibly in the state.</p>

<p>&ldquo;I grew up well below the poverty level, never had the access to the health care system until I was an active duty Army officer in my 20s,&rdquo; Bevin said in an <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/01/13/577833692/kentucky-gov-matt-bevin-on-requiring-medicaid-recipients-to-work">interview with NPR</a>. &ldquo;And I recognize that people in those positions don&rsquo;t need, as Administrator Verma said, to be treated with the soft bigotry of low expectations.&rdquo;</p>

<p>So resolute in his position on this issue, Bevin actually tried to sue 16 Kentucky Medicaid recipients &mdash; publicly naming them &mdash; <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20180228.456918/full/">in order to make the case that his work requirements were legal.</a></p>

<p>Bevin&rsquo;s aggressive stance didn&rsquo;t help matters. When teachers began protesting, he called them &ldquo;ignorant&rdquo; and &ldquo;thug&rdquo;-like in their behavior, and said students were more likely to be sexually assaulted at home because teachers were refusing to be in the classroom. But the policies themselves &mdash; cutting Medicaid and retirement benefits &mdash; fit squarely within the national conservative platform.</p>

<p>And the fact that Trump, who remains very popular in the state, couldn&rsquo;t significantly change the tide in this race does emphasize how unpopular some pillars of Republicans&rsquo; platform are.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Kentuckians voted against Bevin because he pushed super unpopular — but standard — conservative policies</h2>
<p>Passing reforms like Bevin&rsquo;s nationally has been more politically challenging for Republicans. But Trump&rsquo;s 2020 budget proposal aimed to spend $1.5 trillion less on Medicaid &mdash; instead allocating $1.2 trillion in a block-grant program to states &mdash; and $25 billion less on Social Security over 10 years.</p>

<p>Republicans used their two years of controlling both houses of Congress and the presidency to repeatedly attempt to repeal Obamacare, including deep cuts to Medicaid. The House, under Speaker Paul Ryan, passed a bill in May 2017 that cut $800 billion from Medicaid over 10 years.</p>

<p>Polling shows these measures are extremely unpopular, and the public is skeptical about conservatives&rsquo; attempts to sell them. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/1/17066578/medicaid-work-requirements-poll-kff">According to a 2018 poll</a> from the Kaiser Family Foundation, 41 percent of Americans believe the main reason for introducing work requirements to Medicaid is to cut spending on the program, compared to 33 percent who see it as an anti-poverty reform. As <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/1/17066578/medicaid-work-requirements-poll-kff">Vox&rsquo;s Dylan Scott pointed out</a>, even Republican voters are split; 42 percent say it&rsquo;s about pulling people out of poverty, and 40 percent say it&rsquo;s about spending cuts, showing that Republicans&rsquo; efforts to label this as a way to address income inequality isn&rsquo;t working.</p>

<p>Americans &mdash; 66 percent &mdash; believe people who are eligible for Medicaid should be allowed to stay on the program. As Larry Levitt, executive director of the Kaiser Family Foundation tweeted, the politics of Medicaid shouldn&rsquo;t be underestimated.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter alignnone"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As the ACA repeal and replace debate and yesterday&#039;s election in Kentucky illustrated, Medicaid should not be underestimated as a political issue.</p>&mdash; Larry Levitt (@larry_levitt) <a href="https://twitter.com/larry_levitt/status/1192098745753587712?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 6, 2019</a></blockquote>
</div></figure>
<p>Kentucky isn&rsquo;t the only conservative state to have expanded Medicaid; just last year three red states &mdash;&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/7/18055848/medicaid-expansion-idaho-nebraska-utah">Idaho, Nebraska, and Utah</a>&nbsp;&mdash; passed ballot initiatives to expand the health insurance program from low income Americans.</p>

<p>Retirement benefits are also politically potent. Beshear campaigned with a promise of delivering pensions and proposed new revenue streams to pull the state program out of debt. As even some of Bevin&rsquo;s defenders will acknowledge, going after retirement benefits is politically toxic (even if they see it as necessary).</p>

<p>We&rsquo;ve seen this before on a national scale. After George W. Bush was reelected president in 2005, he attempted to privatize Social Security and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/why-the-2005-social-security-initiative-failed-and-what-it-means-for-the-future/">proposed replacing the benefit with voluntary personal retirement accounts</a>. That effort, after huge pushback from Democrats, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/21/18103325/nancy-pelosi-social-security-privatization-bush-plan">failed</a>.</p>

<p>A 2018 survey from&nbsp;<a href="https://socialsecurityworks.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Nat-Social-Security-March-18-2-Results.pdf">Public Policy Polling</a> found that 72 percent percent of voters over the age of 65 said they were more likely to support a candidate who supported expanding Social Security. And we know <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/7/23/20694693/seniors-voters-aarp-medicare-social-security-biden-2020">older adults&rsquo; are skeptical</a> about conservative ideas around retirement benefits, like privatizing Social Security.</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s likely that Bevin&rsquo;s persona amplified why he was so unpopular in the state. But by defeating him, Kentuckians were also rejecting conservative vision of social programs. This doesn&rsquo;t mean that Kentucky is going to turn blue, but it should send Republicans a warning sign nationwide about some of their most closely held ideas.</p>
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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Ella Nilsen</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Tara Golshan</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>Li Zhou</name>
			</author>
			
			<author>
				<name>German Lopez</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[5 winners and 3 losers from Election Day 2019]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/2019/11/5/20949741/winners-and-losers-election-night-2019" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/2019/11/5/20949741/winners-and-losers-election-night-2019</id>
			<updated>2019-11-06T11:28:44-05:00</updated>
			<published>2019-11-05T22:35:19-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Explainers" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Policy" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[It&#8217;s not Election Day 2020 yet, but on Tuesday we got the next best thing. Voters all over the country headed to the polls to decide local and state elections. The headline-grabbing contest was Democrat Andy Beshear beating Republican incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin in the Kentucky governor&#8217;s race &#8212; a state President Donald Trump won [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
							<content type="html">
											<![CDATA[

						
<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="Governor-elect Andy Beshear celebrates with supporters after beating Republican incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin in the Kentucky governor’s race on November 5, 2019. | John Sommers II/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="John Sommers II/Getty Images" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19351643/GettyImages_1180302008t.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Governor-elect Andy Beshear celebrates with supporters after beating Republican incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin in the Kentucky governor’s race on November 5, 2019. | John Sommers II/Getty Images	</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It&rsquo;s not Election Day 2020 yet, but on Tuesday we got the next best thing.</p>

<p>Voters all over the country headed to the polls to decide local and state elections. The headline-grabbing contest was <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20949770/kentucky-governor-election-results-andy-beshear">Democrat Andy Beshear beating Republican incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin</a> in the Kentucky governor&rsquo;s race &mdash; a state President Donald Trump won by a whopping 30 percent in 2016. Some caveats:<strong> </strong>Bevin was among the most unpopular governors in the country, and other Republican leaders in the state outperformed him on Tuesday.</p>

<p>But Beshear&rsquo;s win was still<strong> </strong>a big loss for Trump, who campaigned in Kentucky just a day before the election, <a href="https://twitter.com/molly_knight/status/1191888850882183168">explicitly</a><strong> </strong>tying Bevin&rsquo;s race to his own reputation. The results also showed that Democrats in Kentucky were fired up &mdash; Beshear outperformed the 2015 Democratic gubernatorial candidate in many areas of the state.</p>

<p>The other huge story was Virginia&rsquo;s state legislature elections, where Democrats flipped both the state House and Senate, ensuring a trifecta with Gov. Ralph Northam (D) already in the governor&rsquo;s mansion.</p>

<p>Virginia has been trending blue for years, but the fact that Democrats generated so much enthusiasm in an off-year where state legislature elections were the biggest thing on the ballot means the party is organized and enthusiastic, even for traditionally sleepier races.</p>

<p>Many of the questions going forward are going to be what this all means for Trump and Republicans in 2020. It&rsquo;s not good news for them, for sure. If we learned one thing from Tuesday, it&rsquo;s that Democrats are fired up &mdash; even in redder states.</p>

<p>But there&rsquo;s a lot of other impacts that extend far beyond Trump.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Loser: Donald Trump</h2>
<p>Headlining a Lexington rally for Bevin on Monday night, Trump beseeched Kentucky voters to reelect the Republican governor he was supporting.</p>

<p>&ldquo;If you lose, they&rsquo;re going to say Trump suffered the greatest defeat in the history of the world,&rdquo; Trump said. &ldquo;You can&rsquo;t let that happen to me!&rdquo;</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19351681/GettyImages_1179967145t.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="President Donald Trump on stage during a campaign rally at the Rupp Arena on November 4, 2019. | Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images" />
<p>Maybe &mdash; just this once &mdash; Trump shouldn&rsquo;t have phrased it in such stark terms, because Bevin losing is exactly what happened. It&rsquo;s<strong> </strong>worth stressing that Bevin was incredibly unpopular on his own for saying inflammatory things about Kentucky&rsquo;s teachers and threatening to cut Medicaid expansion.</p>

<p>But beyond the optics of a Trump ally losing in Trump country, there&rsquo;s one other worrying sign for Republicans in Tuesday&rsquo;s results: The 2018 trend of <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/12/19/18129448/suburbs-midterms-2018-democrats-republicans-congress">the suburbs rebelling</a> against the president and his party is continuing. Bevin also performed poorer than expected in the traditionally Democratic Appalachian coal counties that went for Trump in 2016. Now, this doesn&rsquo;t necessarily mean Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell &mdash; up for reelection in Kentucky next year &mdash; is doomed. Nor does it mean Democrats will magically have a landslide in the state in 2020.</p>

<p>But Trump wanted to project strength going into an election year when he&rsquo;ll be on the ballot, and Bevin&rsquo;s loss has to hurt, badly.</p>

<p><em>&mdash; Ella Nilsen</em></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Winner: Democratic organization and enthusiasm</h2>
<p>Virginia and Kentucky demonstrated one clear thing: Democrats were fired up. No matter what caveats exist in each state, that&rsquo;s great news for the Democratic Party heading into 2020.</p>

<p>Beyond his turnout wins, Beshear&rsquo;s message could give the national party hope. He<strong> </strong>ran primarily on health care and education &mdash; vowing to protect Medicaid and boost funding for teachers &mdash; a strategy Democrats could replicate<strong> </strong>in other Trump-friendly states and regions like West Virginia, another state that has seen teachers strikes.</p>

<p>Democrats also won their enthusiasm test in Virginia. A caveat here &mdash; Virginia has been trending more and more blue every year, so winning was not a huge surprise. However, Democrats were looking for signs of enthusiasm, and they got them in Virginia. Anecdotally, turnout was <a href="https://twitter.com/AndyFoxWAVY/status/1191848066552385536?s=20">up significantly in the state</a>. That&rsquo;s important especially because Virginia had no governor&rsquo;s race or US Senate contest on the ballot,<strong> </strong>presenting both Democrats and Republicans with a unique opportunity to show how strong the party apparatus was.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19351693/1179874229.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Virginia House of Delegates Minority Leader Eileen Filler-Corn speaks to the crowd before former Vice President Joe Biden takes the stage at a canvass kickoff rally for Virginia Democrats’ bid to take control of the state House and Senate in Sterling, VA, on November 3, 2019. | Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images" />
<p>&ldquo;It shows you the relative strength of the parties at this point in time without anybody at the top of the ticket,&rdquo; Republican strategist John Feehery told Vox recently. &ldquo;If you take away any personalities, it just gives you a glimpse with a natural setting of what the political barometer is.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The political barometer in Virginia, at least, was very good for Democrats. In the last week leading up to Election Day, Democrats and grassroots activists told Vox they were seeing signs of more enthusiasm for voting than usual.</p>

<p>&ldquo;I think the intensity going in is so strong,&rdquo; said Tram Nguyen, co-executive director of New Virginia Majority, a group aiming to increase the diversity of the Virginia electorate by encouraging minorities and immigrants to vote.</p>

<p>That intensity lasted, showing that Democrats aren&rsquo;t just laser focused on beating Trump in 2020. They&rsquo;re also organizing for races up and down the ballot &mdash; and that won them total control in Virginia&rsquo;s legislature for the first time in a generation.</p>

<p><em>&mdash; Ella Nilsen</em></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Winner: Medicaid expansion</h2>
<p>In Kentucky, Mississippi, and Virginia, Medicaid expansion &mdash; arguably one of the most effective and life-saving provisions in the Affordable Care Act &mdash; was on the line.<strong> </strong></p>

<p>For context:<strong> </strong>The Affordable Care Act initially expanded Medicaid, the federal health insurance program for low income people, to everyone making less than&nbsp;<a href="https://www.macpac.gov/subtopic/overview-of-the-affordable-care-act-and-medicaid/">138 percent of the federal poverty line</a>. But a 2012 Supreme Court ruling weakened the policy, allowing states to reject the expanded program. As of 2019, 36 <a href="https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/status-of-state-medicaid-expansion-decisions-interactive-map/">states and the District of Columbia</a>&nbsp;have adopted the Medicaid expansion and 14 have not.</p>

<p>We&rsquo;ve seen a wealth of research showing that expanding Medicaid has not only vastly increased access to health insurance, but also improved health outcomes. About 13.6 million adults gained Medicaid coverage under Obamacare. One recent study found that by the fourth year of Medicaid expansion, mortality rates in states that expanded the program were 0.2 percentage points lower than in states that did not.</p>

<p>On Tuesday, voters largely reaffirmed their interest in increasing health care access in their states.</p>

<p>In Kentucky, Beshear beat Bevin, who threatened to end Medicaid expansion in his push to implement work requirements, premiums, and co-payments for the state&rsquo;s most vulnerable population. As&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/25/17502484/kentucky-medicaid-expansion-work-requirements-lawsuit"><strong>Dylan Scott explained for Vox</strong></a>, there&rsquo;s a lot of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/11/16763856/voxcare-medicaid-work-requirements"><strong>evidence</strong></a>&nbsp;that most Medicaid recipients do work, and many&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/11/17219196/medicaid-cuts-work-requirement-states-cbpp"><strong>could still lose their coverage</strong></a>&nbsp;because the requirements aren&rsquo;t structured to address the irregularities of low income work. Ending Medicaid expansion in Kentucky could have stripped health insurance from around 400,000 people.</p>

<p>Virginia&rsquo;s Democratic governor managed to pass Medicaid expansion, but it has had eligibility limitations because of the state&rsquo;s Republican statehouse. But on Tuesday, Democrats flipped the state Senate and House, ensuring the program would be protected in the future and giving Democrats the chance to get rid of those limitations.</p>

<p><em>&mdash;Tara Golshan</em></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Winner: Teachers in Kentucky</h2>
<p>When Kentucky&rsquo;s Republican governor Matt Bevin <a href="https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article208518614.html">went after state pensions in 2018</a>, teachers across the state took to the streets in protest. And when Bevin responded by calling them &ldquo;ignorant&rdquo; and &ldquo;thugs,&rdquo; Kentucky teachers rallied around the phrase &ldquo;<a href="https://spectrumnews1.com/ky/lexington/news/2019/10/09/kentucky-democrats-hoping-teachers-will-be-victory-to-governor-s-mansion-">Remember in November</a>&rdquo; to make education a top priority for voters. It wasn&rsquo;t enough to flip the state&rsquo;s<strong> </strong>seats in Congress<strong> </strong>in the 2018 midterms, five out of six of which are still held by Republicans.</p>

<p>But on Tuesday, they did remember for the governor&rsquo;s race.</p>

<p>Kentucky&rsquo;s underfunded pension system, one that since 2000 has accumulated <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/17/kentucky-pension-crisis-reasons-how-we-got-here/2317233002/">$43 billion in debt</a>, was at the center of the governor&rsquo;s race. During his first term, Bevin pushed a reform that cut pensions for new teachers and funding for public schools, resulting in massive teacher protests. Earlier this year, Kentucky teachers called in sick en masse, shutting down every public school in the state.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19351703/GettyImages_945843846t.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Kentucky public school teachers protest outside the Kentucky House Chamber as they rally for a “day of action” to pressure legislators to override Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin’s recent veto of the state’s tax and budget bills on April 13, 2018 in Frankfort, Kentucky. | Bill Pugliano/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Bill Pugliano/Getty Images" />
<p>And Bevin didn&rsquo;t try to endear himself to teachers; he called them &ldquo;selfish&rdquo; and said kids were likely exposed to sexual assault because teachers were protesting instead of staying in the classrooms. He eventually apologized, but not without saying teachers were acting like &ldquo;thugs.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Beshear made education a central part of his campaign for governor. His platform on education for the state <a href="https://andybeshear.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Final-Teacher-Pay-Plan.pdf">gives every teacher</a> an immediate $2,000 across-the-board pay raise and ensures teachers aren&rsquo;t paid less than $40,000. He is also proposing new funding streams for the pension system&nbsp;&mdash; proposals Bevin attacked as unfeasible.</p>

<p>It should be said that even with Beshear in the governor&rsquo;s mansion, he will face a challenge in the state legislature that remains controlled by Republicans. Nevertheless, Kentuckians voting out Bevin is a huge victory for teachers after a year of protests.</p>

<p><em>&mdash;Tara Golshan</em></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Loser: the NRA</h2>
<p>Virginia voters on Tuesday helped Democrats take the state legislature out of Republican hands. In doing so, voters also handed a major victory to gun control advocates in the state &mdash; and a major defeat to the National Rifle Association, also headquartered in Virginia.</p>

<p>Gun control became an especially relevant issue in Virginia this year with the May shooting at Virginia Beach, in which a gunman killed 12 people. That led Democrats to try &mdash; and fail &mdash; to pass a new slew of gun control measures. But the topic has stuck in the public&rsquo;s mind: A <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/new-poll-finds-virginia-voters-focused-on-gun-policy-ahead-of-pivotal-election/2019/10/03/db034922-e472-11e9-a331-2df12d56a80b_story.html">poll</a> in October from the Washington Post and Schar School found that three in four voters rate gun policy as a &ldquo;very important&rdquo; issue in relation to their ballots, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gun-policy-gets-its-biggest-political-test-in-the-virginia-beach-district-that-suffered-a-mass-shooting/2019/10/18/b3732ed0-ea0e-11e9-9306-47cb0324fd44_story.html">making it the top issue</a> overall.</p>

<p>The advocacy group <a href="https://lawcenter.giffords.org/scorecard/">Giffords Law Center</a> gives Virginia a D for its gun laws and ranks the state 22 out of 50 for the strength of its laws. Virginia <a href="https://lawcenter.giffords.org/gun-laws/state-law/Virginia/">does not</a>, for example, have universal background checks, a &ldquo;red flag&rdquo; law that lets courts take away weapons from people deemed dangerous, or an assault weapons ban.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19351715/1160098049t.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Alt: Gun control advocates protest outside the NRA headquarters in Virginia by holding letters that spell out “Gun reform now.” " title="Alt: Gun control advocates protest outside the NRA headquarters in Virginia by holding letters that spell out “Gun reform now.” " data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Gun control advocates take part in a candlelight vigil in honor of the victims of the mass shootings in El Paso, Texas; Dayton, Ohio; and Chicago, Illinois, outside of the NRA headquarters in Fairfax, Virginia, on August 5, 2019. | Michael A. McCoy/Washington Post via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Michael A. McCoy/Washington Post via Getty Images" />
<p>Democrats have been trying to change that, with Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam pushing for stronger gun laws since his election last year. But after Northam called for a session to consider his proposals earlier this year, the Republican-controlled legislature quickly voted along party lines to adjourn the legislature until after the elections.</p>

<p>So gun control advocates hoped to bank on the Virginia elections to flip the legislature and, subsequently, get stricter gun laws passed. According to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/10/11/768762927/gun-control-is-front-and-center-in-virginia-races">NPR</a>, gun control groups outspent the NRA in the state by about 10 to 1 as of October.</p>

<p>Now, gun control groups have a potential majority in the state legislature, and the NRA no longer does. That could lead to big changes in Virginia&rsquo;s gun laws.</p>

<p><em>&mdash;German Lopez</em></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Loser: Republican gerrymandering in Virginia</h2>
<p>Part of the reason Republicans hung onto the Virginia state legislature for so long was gerrymandering. With Democrats&rsquo; win on Tuesday, Republicans can no longer draw the maps to their advantage &mdash; in either state House or US House districts.</p>

<p>The party in control of Virginia&rsquo;s House of Delegates doesn&rsquo;t just have a huge hand in crafting policy; it&rsquo;ll also be responsible for drawing Virginia&rsquo;s new congressional maps in 2021 after the 2020 census. And with Tuesday&rsquo;s win, state Democrats become the big winners of the future here &mdash; with huge implications for the state&rsquo;s congressional delegation.</p>

<p>Given the state&rsquo;s history with gerrymandering, that process will be closely watched. Virginia&rsquo;s old maps were drawn by House Republicans in 2011; packing black voters into districts to dilute their vote. And that was noticeable even during Democrats&rsquo; big wins in 2017; even though Democrats won the overall vote by about <a href="https://twitter.com/samstein/status/928275979428036608">9 points in House of Delegates races</a>, gerrymandered districts made it so Republicans still controlled the chamber &mdash; barely.</p>

<p>A lot has happened since then. In 2018, a district court in Virginia ruled the old maps an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, and new maps fairer to Democrats were drawn at the beginning of the year (these maps may have also helped put them over the top in Tuesday&rsquo;s election). To solidify that, the US Supreme Court upheld the lower court ruling this summer.</p>

<p>But the process of redrawing is about to start all over again, and the House of Delegates wields the pen.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Whether or not we&rsquo;ll have fair maps for the next decade remains to be seen,&rdquo; Tram Nguyen, the co-director of New Virginia Majority, told Vox recently.</p>

<p>Democrats got their chance on Tuesday night.<strong> </strong></p>

<p><em>&mdash;Ella Nilsen</em></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Winner: Voting reform</h2>
<p>Ranked-choice voting advocates scored a big win Tuesday, when New York City overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure that made it the most populous city to adopt the reform.</p>

<p>Under <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/1/20941870/ranked-choice-voting-new-york-city">ranked-choice voting</a>, voters rank their top five candidates in order of preference, rather than simply picking one candidate. It&rsquo;s a set-up that pushes candidates to engage with a broader swath of voters in order to pick up their support and allows voters to support lesser-known candidates without a sense of &ldquo;wasting&rdquo; their vote.</p>

<p>The past few years have marked significant progress for ranked-choice voting, which is now used in more than 20 cities. The tactic, first employed for a federal election by Maine in 2018, has also garnered prominent backing from the likes of Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bennet.</p>

<p>The New York City ballot measure means local voters will be able to use ranked-choice starting in 2021 for regional elections like City Council. In California cities like San Francisco and Berkeley where the reform has been used, ranked-choice has been found to increase the diversity of the candidates vying for seats, and even that of those who are ultimately elected.</p>

<p>Plus, because New York City has now approved the measure, it&rsquo;s possible even more cities and states will consider adopting the same when more ballot initiatives are up for a vote next year.</p>

<p><em>&mdash;Li Zhou</em></p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Winner: Equal rights amendment</h2>
<p>In addition to boding well for the party going into 2020, Democrats&rsquo; sweeping wins in Virginia could also mean crucial momentum for the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/5/31/17414630/equal-rights-amendment-metoo-illinois">Equal Rights Amendment.</a></p>

<p>The ERA, a potential amendment to the Constitution, would codify equal protections for men and women under the law, guaranteeing protections like equal pay. It needs to be ratified by 38 of 50 state legislatures in order to come to fruition. Presently, the ERA has been approved by 37. If Virginia were to vote in favor of the ERA, it would hit the threshold it needs for ratification.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19351750/968563040t.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Jessica Lenahan, center, a domestic violence survivor, and Carol Jenkins, right, of the Equal Rights Amendment Task Force, attend a news conference at the House Triangle on the need to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment on June 6, 2018. | Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call" data-portal-copyright="Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call" />
<p>That said, Congress had previously set 1982 as a deadline for this process, which means that lawmakers would have to vote to undo that deadline in order for the amendment to ultimately be ratified. Given the uncertainty around this potential deadline and whether Congress would be willing to take action on it, it&rsquo;s not yet certain that the measure will advance.</p>

<p>A vote to ratify it from Virginia&rsquo;s newly minted state legislature, however, would mark a massive step forward.</p>

<p><em>&mdash;Li Zhou</em></p>
						]]>
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					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Tara Golshan</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Democrat Andy Beshear just unseated Kentucky’s Trump-loving governor Matt Bevin]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20949770/kentucky-governor-election-results-andy-beshear" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20949770/kentucky-governor-election-results-andy-beshear</id>
			<updated>2019-11-05T21:42:10-05:00</updated>
			<published>2019-11-05T21:02:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Democrat Andy Beshear has won the Kentucky governor&#8217;s race, ousting sitting Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, and giving Democrats a big win in a conservative state. It&#8217;s a major loss for Republicans in a state where they hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, both US Senate seats, and five out of the state&#8217;s [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<img alt="" data-caption="Democrat Andy Beshear and Gov. Matt Bevin during the final Kentucky gubernatorial debate on October 29, 2019. | Albert Cesare/AP" data-portal-copyright="Albert Cesare/AP" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19337105/AP_19303018430389.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
	<figcaption>
	Democrat Andy Beshear and Gov. Matt Bevin during the final Kentucky gubernatorial debate on October 29, 2019. | Albert Cesare/AP	</figcaption>
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<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/1/20932085/kentucky-governor-election-2019-bevin-beshear-trump">Democrat Andy Beshear</a> has won the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20948386/kentucky-governor-live-results">Kentucky governor&rsquo;s race</a>, ousting sitting Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, and giving Democrats a big win in a conservative state.</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s a major loss for Republicans in a state where they hold supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, both US Senate seats, and five out of the state&rsquo;s six House seats. Bevin pulled out all the stops to clinch a win; President Donald Trump rallied in Lexington, Kentucky, Monday night ahead of the election to turn out voters. But even that last-ditch effort wasn&rsquo;t enough &mdash; a sign that Trump&rsquo;s influence isn&rsquo;t omnipotent.</p>

<p>At the end of the day, in the eyes of Kentuckians, Bevin remained an extremely unpopular governor. He threatened to cut Medicaid expansion in the state, which would have likely pushed about 400,000 people off their health insurance.</p>

<p>And his time in office was met with statewide protests by Kentucky teachers, after he pushed to cut pensions. Bevin called teachers &ldquo;ignorant&rdquo; and &ldquo;selfish,&rdquo; and said kids were likely exposed to sexual assault because teachers were protesting instead of staying in the classrooms. He eventually apologized for the comment, but not without saying teachers were acting like &ldquo;thugs.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Beshear won on a campaign focused on statewide issues around health care and education. He promised teachers raises and new funding streams for the pension system. He has said he is pro-choice, will <a href="https://andybeshear.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/AndysHealthCarePlan.pdf">protect Medicaid</a>, pushing back against Bevin&rsquo;s proposed Medicaid work requirements.</p>

<p>Bevin&rsquo;s defenders say he became a political casualty after attempting to take on some of Kentucky&rsquo;s most pressing and politically difficult issues, like the pension system that has accumulated <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/17/kentucky-pension-crisis-reasons-how-we-got-here/2317233002/">$43 billion in debt</a> since 2000. But the reality is many Kentuckians instead saw a leader attacking some of the most vulnerable in the state. And Bevin&rsquo;s effort to make the race about Trump &mdash; who remains in Kentuckians&rsquo; good graces &mdash; could not mask years of controversial conservative policies.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Does this mean Mitch McConnell is going to lose his Senate seat? Not so fast.</h2>
<p>The Beshear win is big for Democrats. But Democratic and Republican strategists alike warn against extrapolating much further. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell may be up for reelection in 2020, but that race is entirely separate from the governor&rsquo;s race Democrats just won.</p>

<p>&ldquo;It certainly doesn&rsquo;t hurt to have party infrastructure going into a federal election cycle, but that race is going to be that race,&rdquo; Matt Erwin, a Kentucky Democratic strategist, said.</p>

<p>Kentucky has had a strong history with Democratic governors (one Beshear is actually a part of; his father Steve Beshear was a two-term governor during the Barack Obama years, and expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act). But federally, Kentucky is conservative &mdash; and Trumpian.</p>

<p>Trump won the state by a whopping 30 points, and his popularity in Kentucky has remained consistently high. While McConnell is unpopular, he&rsquo;s still the clear favorite to win.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Even if you don&rsquo;t love McConnell, he&rsquo;s still a Republican and a very powerful Republican at that,&rdquo; Jessica Taylor, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told Vox ahead of the election.</p>

<p>Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist and pundit in the state, said while it&rsquo;s &ldquo;enormously frustrating to lose the governor,&rdquo; Republicans know that this isn&rsquo;t the worst-case scenario for them.</p>

<p>&ldquo;The Republicans have proven we can win and hold federal offices and win and hold the state legislature,&rdquo; Jennings said, noting that the state&rsquo;s legislature is very powerful and that Republicans hold the majority in both chambers.</p>
						]]>
									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Tara Golshan</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Live results for Kentucky’s governor’s race: Matt Bevin vs. Andy Beshear]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20948386/kentucky-governor-live-results" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20948386/kentucky-governor-live-results</id>
			<updated>2019-11-05T22:16:50-05:00</updated>
			<published>2019-11-05T15:30:00-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Update: Democrat Andy Beshear has won the governor&#8217;s race. Kentucky Republican Gov. Matt Bevin is among the most unpopular governors in the country. On November 5, 2019, Kentuckians get to decide whether they want to throw him out of office, or give him another chance. Democrats are banking on Kentucky&#8217;s Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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						<p><strong>Update: </strong><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20949770/kentucky-governor-election-results-andy-beshear"><strong>Democrat Andy Beshear</strong></a><strong> has won the governor&rsquo;s race.</strong></p>

<p><a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/1/20932085/kentucky-governor-election-2019-bevin-beshear-trump">Kentucky Republican Gov. Matt Bevin</a> is among the most unpopular governors in the country. On November 5, 2019, Kentuckians get to decide whether they want to throw him out of office, or give him another chance.</p>

<p>Democrats are banking on Kentucky&rsquo;s Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear to unseat Bevin. Earlier this year Beshear, who has out-fundraised and out-spent Bevin, led in the polls, but going into Election Day the two are in a dead heat; a mid-October&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wymt.com/content/news/EMBARGO-TIL-6-AM-Mason-Dixon-Kentucky-Poll-indicates-governors-race-is-tied-going-into-November-563167251.html"><strong>Mason Dixon Line poll&nbsp;</strong></a>showed 46 percent of likely voters backing Bevin, and 46 percent backing Beshear.</p>

<p>Polls close at<strong> </strong>6 pm local time (Kentucky spans two time zones). Vox will have live results here, courtesy of Decision Desk.</p>
<div class="vox media-embed"><a href="https://apps.voxmedia.com/at/vox-ky-gov-ddhq-widget/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">View Link</a></div>
<p>If Beshear pulls off a win, it could set up a tense term. Republicans have supermajorities in both chambers of the state Legislature, and a Republican has replaced Beshear as attorney general; Beshear could be on a lonely Democratic island in a sea of red.</p>

<p>Democrat Greg Stumbo, a veteran Kentucky politician &mdash; the former speaker of the Kentucky House of Representatives who previously served as attorney general from 2004 to 2008 &mdash; is running against a young corporate lawyer and former counsel to Sen. Mitch McConnell, Daniel Cameron, for the attorney general seat. Beshear has played a big role in fighting back against Bevin&rsquo;s policies from the attorney general&rsquo;s office. Having a Republican take over his seat would be a major blow for Democrats.</p>

<p>Live results, also provided in partnership with Decision Desk, are below:</p>
<div class="vox media-embed"><a href="https://apps.voxmedia.com/at/vox-ky-ag-ddhq-widget/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">View Link</a></div><h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday’s results will either be about Kentucky or about Trump</h2>
<p>In many ways, the polls going into Election Day shouldn&rsquo;t be as close as they are. Republicans have supermajorities in both of Kentucky&rsquo;s state legislative chambers, and President Donald Trump&rsquo;s popularity in the state is unwavering. (He won the state by 30 points.) It&rsquo;s home to McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and all but one of the state&rsquo;s six House members are Republicans.</p>

<p>But in the last four years, Republicans in the state, led by Bevin, who won handily by 9 points in 2015, have picked political fights that many voters may carry with them to the polls. The Republican governor has threatened to end <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20948118/virginia-kentucky-mississippi-medicaid-election-results"><strong>Medicaid</strong></a>&nbsp;expansion in the state, which could throw hundreds of thousands of people off their health insurance, and cut back teachers&rsquo; pensions. Bevin famously said protesting teachers had a &ldquo;thug mentality,&rdquo; and were &ldquo;selfish&rdquo; and &ldquo;ignorant.&rdquo; He&rsquo;s already signed restrictive abortion bills and pushed for serious budget cuts in a state&nbsp;<a href="https://wfpl.org/census-data-show-some-ky-counties-among-nations-poorest/"><strong>home to some of the United States&rsquo; poorest people</strong></a>.</p>

<p>Bevin and Cameron are trying their hardest to tie themselves to Trump. They know their best shot at winning the state is by making this a national race.</p>

<p>But if Democrats can win this, it will show that Trump&rsquo;s influence cannot transcend the unpopularity of some of the country&rsquo;s most conservative leaders.</p>

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									</content>
			
					</entry>
			<entry>
			
			<author>
				<name>Tara Golshan</name>
			</author>
			
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Kentucky’s Republican governor is facing a tough race — and he wants Trump to save him]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/1/20932085/kentucky-governor-election-2019-bevin-beshear-trump" />
			<id>https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/1/20932085/kentucky-governor-election-2019-bevin-beshear-trump</id>
			<updated>2019-11-05T17:19:14-05:00</updated>
			<published>2019-11-05T12:21:09-05:00</published>
			<category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Explainers" /><category scheme="https://www.vox.com" term="Politics" />
							<summary type="html"><![CDATA[Kentucky Republican Matt Bevin has the distinct reputation of being among the country&#8217;s most unpopular governors. On November 5, 2019, Bevin is up for reelection, and the race is a total toss-up. Democrats are banking on Kentucky&#8217;s Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear to unseat him. Earlier this year Beshear, who has out-fundraised and out-spent Bevin, [&#8230;]]]></summary>
			
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<figure>

<img alt="" data-caption="" data-portal-copyright="Zac Freeland/Vox" data-has-syndication-rights="1" src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19336607/Kentucky_Explained.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" />
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<p>Kentucky Republican Matt Bevin has the distinct reputation of being among the country&rsquo;s most unpopular governors. On November 5, 2019, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20948386/kentucky-governor-live-results">Bevin is up for reelection</a>, and the race is a total toss-up.</p>

<p>Democrats are banking on Kentucky&rsquo;s Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear to unseat him. Earlier this year Beshear, who has out-fundraised and out-spent Bevin, led in the polls, but going into Election Day the two are in a dead heat; a mid-October <a href="https://www.wymt.com/content/news/EMBARGO-TIL-6-AM-Mason-Dixon-Kentucky-Poll-indicates-governors-race-is-tied-going-into-November-563167251.html">Mason Dixon Line poll  </a>showed 46 percent of likely voters backing Bevin, and 46 percent backing Beshear.</p>

<p>In many ways, this race shouldn&rsquo;t be this close. Republicans have supermajorities in both of Kentucky&rsquo;s state legislative chambers, and President Donald Trump&rsquo;s popularity in the state is unwavering. (He won the state by 30 points.) It&rsquo;s home to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and all but one of the state&rsquo;s six House members are Republicans. Democrats had a <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/17/16849262/amy-mcgrath-kentucky-house-andy-barr">high profile loss</a> in the state just last year, when top recruit Marine Lt. Col.&nbsp;Amy McGrath failed to unseat Rep. Andy Barr. (McGrath is now challenging McConnell in 2020.)</p>

<p>But in the last four years, Bevin, who won handily by 9 points in 2015, has picked political fights that many voters may carry with with them to the polls. The Republican governor is <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/25/17502484/kentucky-medicaid-expansion-work-requirements-lawsuit">fighting to push people off Medicaid</a> and cut back teachers&rsquo; pensions.&nbsp;Bevin famously said protesting teachers had a &ldquo;thug mentality,&rdquo; were &ldquo;selfish,&rdquo; and &ldquo;ignorant.&rdquo;</p>

<p>&ldquo;What Bevin has done is that he has gotten into these personal wars with average people,&rdquo; Jessica Taylor, an editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said. &ldquo;He&rsquo;s just someone who doesn&rsquo;t play well with others.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Bevin&rsquo;s threat to end Medicaid expansion in the state could throw hundreds of thousands of people off their health care, he&rsquo;s already signed restrictive abortion bills and pushed for serious budget cuts in a state <a href="https://wfpl.org/census-data-show-some-ky-counties-among-nations-poorest/">home to some of the United States&rsquo; poorest people</a>.</p>

<p>Republicans know Bevin is at risk of losing. Trump held a rally in Kentucky the night before Election Day, and Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for the governor on the ground. Meanwhile, Beshear, who has spent the last four years fighting Bevin from within the state&rsquo;s executive branch as attorney general, is hoping voters will ditch their national political allegiances in an off-year election.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19337094/903910036.jpg.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="US-POLITICS-TRUMP-PRISON REFORM" title="US-POLITICS-TRUMP-PRISON REFORM" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Donald Trump speaks alongside Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin (L) during a meeting on prison reform in the Roosevelt Room of the White House | Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images" />
<p>Vox is covering the results live, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/5/20948386/kentucky-governor-live-results">here</a>.</p>

<p>The race is being cast as a referendum on Trump; can a Democrat win in a deep-red state one year from a presidential election? But Kentucky&rsquo;s governor&rsquo;s race is better described as a test of Trump&rsquo;s influence over Republicans. Is love for Trump enough to overpower a strong distaste for a state leader?</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Republicans want this race to be about Trump</h2>
<p>Trump is popular in Kentucky. Bevin is not. Republicans know this: If Bevin wins it will be because his push to make the race about Trump was successful.</p>

<p>&ldquo;The basic contours are pretty simple, Republicans want to nationalize the race, make Bevin into Trump and make Andy Beshear into your standard radical Democrat,&rdquo; Scott Jennings, a Kentucky Republican strategist and commentator said. If the governor&rsquo;s race becomes &ldquo;a shirts versus skins exercise&rdquo; about Trump, Jennings said, then Republicans have more people on their team.</p>

<p>Bevin is leaning into that strategy, explicitly. He talks about Trump on the campaign trail. Trump is prominently featured in his campaign ads &mdash; ads focused on the &ldquo;threat&rdquo; of illegal immigration. Trump himself is coming to Kentucky to campaign for Bevin the day for Tuesday&rsquo;s election, to energize the base to get to the polls.</p>

<p>It&rsquo;s easy to see how this could work. Particularly as Democrats escalate their impeachment inquiry, turning Bevin into Trump&rsquo;s Kentucky defender is likely to rally Republicans in a state where the president&rsquo;s approval rating has been consistently high.</p>

<p>But Kentucky also has a strong Democratic history that Beshear is a part of. Beshear&rsquo;s father, Steve Beshear, served two four-year terms as governor ( from 2007 through 2015). Even as President Barack Obama&rsquo;s status in the state tanked, the Beshear name <a href="https://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/Bluegrass-Poll--Ky-voters-give-high-approval-for-governor-but-not-President-330115961.html">remained in Kentuckians&rsquo; good graces</a>.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19337099/453083138.jpg.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="Democratic Challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes And Senate Minority Leader McConnell Locked In Tight Race" title="Democratic Challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes And Senate Minority Leader McConnell Locked In Tight Race" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Former Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear at the Fancy Farm picnic August 2, 2014 in Fancy Farm, Kentucky. | Win McNamee/Getty Images" data-portal-copyright="Win McNamee/Getty Images" />
<p>&ldquo;If who occupies the White House was going to determine who occupies the governor&rsquo;s mansion in Frankfort, the state has pretty well disproved that,&rdquo; says Matt Erwin, a Democratic strategist that worked on Adam Edelen&rsquo;s gubernatorial campaign, who lost to Beshear in the primary, running to his left. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s definitely a factor, but it&rsquo;s not the only factor.&rdquo;</p>

<p>But Andy Beshear is not his father, who was seen as a natural, homespun, retail politician. Interviews with Republican and Democratic strategists and neutral observers pegged Beshear as &ldquo;cerebral,&rdquo; &ldquo;milquetoast,&rdquo; and &ldquo;not a very compelling&rdquo; candidate. That said, Beshear has shown he has a formidable fundraising operation, and has so far kept his campaign away from the national spotlight.</p>

<p>Beshear&rsquo;s message isn&rsquo;t about Washington, DC, or Trump, but about Bevin. In the gubernatorial debates Beshear emphasized Bevin calling teachers names. His ads have been about the opioid crisis and health care. He&rsquo;s responded to Bevin&rsquo;s ads about immigration by citing his endorsement from the <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/kentucky/articles/2019-09-16/beshear-wins-endorsement-from-fraternal-order-of-police">Fraternal Order of the Police</a>. And that all seems to have Republicans worried.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Bevin clearly knows this race is close,&rdquo; Al Cross, a University of Kentucky professor and political commentator, said. &ldquo;He&rsquo;s bringing in Trump to close the sale. You don&rsquo;t pull out stops like this if you think you&rsquo;ve got it wrapped up.&rdquo;</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The stakes are high for Democrats</h2>
<p>Kentucky Democrats, like Beshear, hold some statewide seats. The state&rsquo;s secretary of state,  Alison Grimes, is also a Democrat, though she is not running for reelection. Her father was convicted of illegally funneling her money for her 2014 run against McConnell, and she herself came under scrutiny for <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/alison-lundergan-grimes-kentucky-onetime-rising-democratic-star-voter-privacy">breaching state employee&rsquo;s voting privacy</a>.</p>

<p>But Democrats have been overshadowed by a staunchly conservative state legislature with supermajorities in both chambers, and a powerful Republican-heavy congressional delegation.</p>

<p>Under Bevin&rsquo;s leadership, the state has passed conservative labor laws, like a &ldquo;right to work&rdquo; policy to undercut unions, and a repeal of the prevailing wage, which guaranteed public works employees base salaries. He has <a href="https://wfpl.org/kentucky-primary-2019-when-it-comes-to-school-choice-bevin-stands-alone/">allowed charter schools to come to Kentucky</a> while proposing cuts to public school. And he&rsquo;s also signed several anti-abortion laws, like requiring ultrasounds and showing patients pictures of fetuses before performing an <a href="https://apnews.com/e67324b7e0a640fcadb8ef18af0a647c">abortion.</a></p>

<p>Democrats see this race as a must-win situation.</p>
<img src="https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19337105/AP_19303018430389.jpg?quality=90&#038;strip=all&#038;crop=0,0,100,100" alt="" title="" data-has-syndication-rights="1" data-caption="Democrat Andy Beshear and Governor Matt Bevin during the final Kentucky gubernatorial debate between incumbent Republican Matt Bevin and Democratic candidate Andy Beshear on, Oct. 29, 2019 | Albert Cesare/AP" data-portal-copyright="Albert Cesare/AP" />
<p>&ldquo;We are a poor, largely rural state that in far too many places is too sick and too lacking in education and opportunity to keep doubling down on policies and programs that aren&rsquo;t going to give us a chance to succeed in the future,&rdquo; Erwin, the Kentucky Democratic strategist, said. &ldquo;We have to say we can look at Kansas and say those policies don&rsquo;t work. &#8230; This state will not survive a failed political science experiment where we see what happens if we shrink government.&rdquo;</p>

<p>That said, even if Beshear is to win, he would still face an uphill battle in a state that gives the legislature power to override vetoes with a simple majority.</p>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Will a 2018 messaging redux work in Kentucky?</h2>
<p>The messaging wars in Kentucky are familiar. According to an <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1061986#blogHeader">analysis from NBC</a>, 86 percent of all ad spending the Kentucky gubernatorial race has been focused on health care and immigration &mdash; a rehashing of the 2018 midterms.</p>

<p>Bevin is using the same script Republicans used nationwide last year: fear-mongering images of the MS-13 gang members and migrants climbing over a wall, he is labeling Beshear as a &ldquo;pro-illegals liberal&rdquo; and himself &ldquo;pro-Trump.&rdquo;</p>
<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="Matt Bevin: Safe" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OoBY-HPDWXo?rel=0" allowfullscreen allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div>
<p>Beshear, meanwhile, has emphasized the reasons Kentuckians really don&rsquo;t like Bevin. Much of that comes down to Kentucky&rsquo;s vastly underfunded pension system, one that since 2000 has accumulated <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/17/kentucky-pension-crisis-reasons-how-we-got-here/2317233002/">$43 billion in debt</a>. Bevin pushed a reform that cut pensions for new teachers and funding for public schools, resulting in big teacher protests. Earlier this year, Kentucky teachers called in sick en masse shutting down every single public school in the state.</p>

<p>In response, Bevin called teachers &ldquo;ignorant&rdquo; and &ldquo;selfish,&rdquo; and said kids were likely exposed to sexual assault because teachers were protesting instead of staying in the classrooms, a comment he eventually apologized for, but not without saying teachers were acting like &ldquo;thugs.&rdquo; Beshear is promising teachers raises, and new funding streams for the pension system&nbsp;&mdash; proposals Bevin attacks as unfeasible.</p>

<p>Democrats have also been focusing on health care, namely claiming that Bevin is &ldquo;trying to take health care away&rdquo; from families. Beshear&rsquo;s father expanded Medicaid in Kentucky as governor under the Affordable Care Act to roughly 400,000 people. It&rsquo;s been an incredibly popular program, covering 1.2 million people in the state.</p>

<p>Bevin has threatened to end Medicaid expansion in his push to implement work requirements, premiums, and co-payments for the state&rsquo;s most vulnerable population. As <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/25/17502484/kentucky-medicaid-expansion-work-requirements-lawsuit">Dylan Scott explained for Vox</a>, there&rsquo;s a lot of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/11/16763856/voxcare-medicaid-work-requirements">evidence</a>&nbsp;that most Medicaid recipients do work, and many&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/11/17219196/medicaid-cuts-work-requirement-states-cbpp">could still lose their coverage</a>&nbsp;because the requirements aren&rsquo;t structured to address the irregularities of low-income work.</p>

<p>Beshear&rsquo;s ads have been on preexisting conditions, Medicaid expansion, and affordability.</p>
<div class="youtube-embed"><iframe title="Serious" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qddNyXTC67I?rel=0" allowfullscreen allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div>
<p>This messaging war helped House Democrats sweep the majority in the 2018 midterms, and unseated Republican leaders in states like Wisconsin, Arizona, and Michigan, where a <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/12/19/18129448/suburbs-midterms-2018-democrats-republicans-congress">weakening of traditionally conservative suburban pockets delivered Democrats wins</a>.</p>

<p>But that formula didn&rsquo;t play out as well in Kentucky. Democrat Amy McGrath failed to unseat a House Republican in Lexington, Kentucky. And while Democrats in the state see potential in some of the suburbs around Louisville, where Kentucky House Republicans&nbsp;in Jefferson County lost two of their five seats, Republicans easily held on to their strong majorities in the state legislature in 2018.</p>

<p>It comes down to turnout: Will Republicans stay home with Bevin on the ballot, and will Democrats be energized to oust an unpopular Republican?</p>

<p>&ldquo;Both parties think they are going to win; both parties wouldn&rsquo;t bet the farm on it, but turnout projections are all over the board,&rdquo; Jennings said.</p>

<p><em>Correction: A previous version of this article stated that Steve Beshear served three terms as governor. He served two, and one term as lieutenant governor in the 1980s. We regret the error.</em></p>
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