Nevada Democratic caucus 2016: news and updates

You’d be forgiven if you didn’t know today Nevada is holding its Democratic Caucuses, since, not a whole lot of attention has been paid to the state compared to Iowa or New Hampshire.

That’s because it was supposed to be an easy win for Hillary Clinton. It turns out it is very much not. The race could be as close as the Iowa caucuses (which were nearly tied). Or Bernie Sanders could outright win.

EAST LAS VEGAS — “Nevada is especially important because we’re a swing state. Who here knows what a swing state is?” a Bernie Sanders campaign organizer had asked the room of 15 volunteers — overwhelmingly Latino and largely in their teens and 20s — during an introductory spiel that was part training and part pep rally.

Silence. The question hung in the air just long enough to become awkward.

Hookers for Hillary — a Nevada brothel’s endorsement of Hillary Clinton — is, in one sense, a silly publicity stunt, the sequel to the Bunny Ranch’s “Pimpin’ for Paul” campaign for libertarian Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012.

Except that no one told the women at the brothel not to take politics seriously.

LAS VEGAS, NV — In October 2015, Nevada staffers for Hillary Clinton boasted that the state was “Hillary country.” One big reason for their confidence: Challenger Bernie Sanders might be used to heavily white states like Iowa and New Hampshire (and his home state of Vermont), but Clinton had the edge among nonwhite voters. So when the primary season moved to states that look more like the Democratic base — Nevada and South Carolina — Clinton would be on solid ground.

Fast-forward to today, less than a week before the Nevada caucuses, and the Clinton campaign finds itself arguing that Saturday’s Nevada caucus will look a lot like Iowa’s — in a state that is only 51.5 percent white, Clinton spokespeople have argued, the Democratic caucus will be 80 percent white.

Bernie Sanders has momentum. After an unexpectedly close race in Iowa and an overwhelming victory in New Hampshire, the Nevada Democratic caucuses on February 20 are next. And there’s a real chance he could do well there too.

Observers in Nevada think Sanders has a fighting chance there on Saturday — including among the Latino voters who were once expected to be part of Hillary Clinton’s “firewall.” There’s been precious little polling in the state, so it may be yet another huge surprise of this election.