Voters from both parties go to the polls today for closed primaries in New York, a state with the potential to award a lot of delegates. It’s the home state of Donald Trump (really) and Hillary Clinton (sort of — she represented it in the Senate). And a win for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary is both unlikely and crucial for the Vermont senator’s chances.
New York primary: poll closing times and results
Libby Nelson was Vox’s editorial director, politics and policy, leading coverage of how government action and inaction shape American life. Libby has more than a decade of policy journalism experience, including at Inside Higher Ed and Politico. She joined Vox in 2014.
Here’s a quick guide to today’s elections. Results will come in after 9 pm Eastern time.
Who’s voting: Republicans and Democrats
Republican delegates at stake: 95, most awarded by congressional district; winner-take-all with a majority
Democratic delegates at stake: 247, awarded proportionally
Voting ends: 9 pm Eastern. (Polls open at 6 am in New York City and surrounding counties, and at noon in the rest of the state.)
The Republican outlook: Donald Trump appears poised to cruise to victory in his home state of New York. The only question is how many places he manages to hit the 50 percent threshold. If Trump gets more than 50 percent statewide — and given that he’s polling 30 points ahead of his closest rival, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, according to RealClearPolitics, that’s not impossible — he’ll take all of New York’s 14 statewide delegates. In every congressional district where he hits over 50 percent, he’ll get all of that district’s delegates as well.
The Democratic outlook: Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead in the polls of about 10 points, according to RealClearPolitics. But the polls have been wrong on Sanders before, and he had a strong debate on Thursday night. New York is make or break for Sanders’s campaign — although he’s climbing in national polls, he still trails Clinton significantly in the delegate count. And the next run of primaries, including New York, aren’t held in states where the demographics favor his campaign.
Correction: A previous version of this article misstated New York’s delegate allocation rules. Trump gets all statewide delegates if he gets at least 50 percent of the vote statewide, as well as all delegates for each congressional district where he gets at least 50 percent of the vote.
New Yorkers turn up. Just not at the ballot box.
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