Skip to main content

The context you need, when you need it

When news breaks, you need to understand what actually matters — and what to do about it. At Vox, our mission to help you make sense of the world has never been more vital. But we can’t do it on our own.

We rely on readers like you to fund our journalism. Will you support our work and become a Vox Member today?

Join now

Twitter Has 284 Million Users and Hits Its Q3 Numbers. Wall Street Wants More.

Looks like Dick Costolo delivered.

Asa Mathat

Here are Twitter Q3’s earnings: (Adjusted) earnings of a penny per share, on $361 million in revenue. That’s right in line with Wall Street estimates. Most crucially, Twitter says it has 284 million active users, up from 271 million in Q2. That’s likely going to satisfy investors as well. We’ll see.

Survey says … nope! Shares are down more than 9 percent in after-market trading.

Twitter’s guidance isn’t the culprit here, either: Twitter says it will generate between $440 million and $450 million in revenue, which will create $100 million to $105 million in adjusted earnings. That’s in line with the consensus, too.

Meanwhile, here’s a hint about what Twitter will talk about during its call: It’s playing up the “NFL Timeline” it built out this fall, as an example of the way the service can provide value to its core users as well as casual or first-time visitors.

So what’s the problem? The easiest guess is that investors wanted the highly valued stock – it’s worth around $30 billion right now — to over-deliver, and it didn’t. J.P. Morgan’s Doug Anmuth, for instance, wanted 288 million users.

Another hunch is that investors will now say they’re worried about “timeline views,” the metric Twitter uses to measure its users’ engagement. That’s at 181 billion — much more than RBC analyst Mark Mahaney had expected — and is up 14 percent from the last year. But last quarter, timeline views were up 15 percent.

This is the downside of the expectations game that Twitter won last quarter. Silly, but that’s how it works. And it shouldn’t be surprising to Anthony Noto, the Wall Street star the company brought on as its CFO last quarter, in part to help Twitter feed and care for its investors.

In fact, Noto addressed these expectations on the call Monday afternoon when he told investors to stop betting on Twitter to outperform its guidance down the road. Twitter is working hard to provide accurate expectations, he said, and Wall Street shouldn’t expect them to undersell. “We do not recommend projections that deviate meaningfully from our guidance,” Noto said.

Twitter stock was down more than 10 percent at the end of the call, a sign that investors didn’t get the assurance they were looking for.

The other point of contention for a number of investors was timeline views, which increased to 181 billion in the quarter but has been flat in terms of growth for the past three quarters. Noto said that he expects timeline views per MAU to be flat once again next quarter. Twitter attributes this to creating a more successful timeline experience. If users get what they are looking for the first time around, they don’t have much of a need to refresh, Noto explained.

Update: Includes paragraphs highlighting some of Twitter’s earnings call.

This article originally appeared on Recode.net.

More in Technology

Technology
The case for AI realismThe case for AI realism
Technology

AI isn’t going to be the end of the world — no matter what this documentary sometimes argues.

By Shayna Korol
Politics
OpenAI’s oddly socialist, wildly hypocritical new economic agendaOpenAI’s oddly socialist, wildly hypocritical new economic agenda
Politics

The AI company released a set of highly progressive policy ideas. There’s just one small problem.

By Eric Levitz
Future Perfect
Human bodies aren’t ready to travel to Mars. Space medicine can help.Human bodies aren’t ready to travel to Mars. Space medicine can help.
Future Perfect

Protecting astronauts in space — and maybe even Mars — will help transform health on Earth.

By Shayna Korol
Podcasts
The importance of space toilets, explainedThe importance of space toilets, explained
Podcast
Podcasts

Houston, we have a plumbing problem.

By Peter Balonon-Rosen and Sean Rameswaram
Technology
What happened when they installed ChatGPT on a nuclear supercomputerWhat happened when they installed ChatGPT on a nuclear supercomputer
Technology

How they’re using AI at the lab that created the atom bomb.

By Joshua Keating
Future Perfect
Humanity’s return to the moon is a deeply religious missionHumanity’s return to the moon is a deeply religious mission
Future Perfect

Space barons like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk don’t seem religious. But their quest to colonize outer space is.

By Sigal Samuel