YouGov, the polling group whose September 7 poll shook up the Scottish independence race by showing a pro-independence majority has just released its final poll. The outfit is predicting an 8-point loss for the pro-independence campaign.
The last poll in Scotland predicts a defeat for independence
Zack Beauchamp is a senior correspondent at Vox, where he covers ideology and challenges to democracy, both at home and abroad. His book on democracy, The Reactionary Spirit, was published 0n July 16. You can purchase it here.
To make its prediction, YouGov polled 2,628 potential voters (800 of whom had already voted by mail). The poll was conducted in two stages: first, voters were asked earlier this week how they were planning to vote. The same participants were contacted on Thursday, the day of the election, and polled again after they had voted.
Though the full cross-tabs aren’t available, YouGov reports “a small shift on the day from Yes to No, and also that No supporters were slightly more likely to turn out to vote.” As a result, YouGov is comfortable making an official prediction: “No has won Scotland’s referendum with 54 percent of the vote.”
Peter Kellner, the President of YouGov, was even more definitive. “I can’t see No losing this now,” he said. “At the risk of looking a complete prat it’s a 99 percent certainty.”
Incidentally, prediction markets swung heavily in favor of a No victory around the same time the YouGov poll came out:
Holy cow, HUGE movement in #IndyRef odds. YES now rated only a 7% chance. NO is 93% likely. http://t.co/XeG2pybOm0 pic.twitter.com/S8Y8daXtmY
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) September 18, 2014 We won’t have to wait too long to find out whether YouGov is right. The polls in Scotland are closed, and we’ll likely start hearing some news around 9 p.m. Eastern.
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