Britain has formally begun the process of withdrawing from the European Union, invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Article 50 notification triggers negotiations with the other 27 EU countries over the terms of UK withdrawal. This includes things like whether the UK will remain in the European single market, called the European Economic Area, and whether it will continue to accept unrestricted immigration from other EU countries. If the UK and EU can’t make a deal in two years, Britain loses access to all of them.
Brexit has put the UK in an impossible position. This Venn diagram explains why.
(Mary Turner/Getty Images)
Zack Beauchamp is a senior correspondent at Vox, where he covers ideology and challenges to democracy, both at home and abroad. His book on democracy, The Reactionary Spirit, was published 0n July 16. You can purchase it here.
This puts the UK in an absolutely terrible position. The following Venn diagram, from Twitter user Quantian, perfectly explains why. It shows is that there is no possible resolution to the Article 50 negotiations that pleases British voters and the other 27 European countries — without tanking the UK economy:
Our team of top Morskiologists at Quantian Capital have been working nonstop for days to produce this diagram: pic.twitter.com/ehfBy1BjCc
— Quantian (@quantian1) July 3, 2016
Quantian’s chart points out that there are basically three possible ways the negotiations could turn out — and each has major flaws.
1) “Clean break”: In this scenario, also called a “hard Brexit,” the UK just leaves the EU without negotiating any sort of alternative arrangements in place. This option could be disruptive for many EU citizens and businesses, but EU leaders wouldn’t have any way to stop it. And Brexit supporters in the UK would find it acceptable.
The problem: Just quitting would likely trigger a severe recession in the UK, as the British economy depends on free access to the European common market. About 44 percent of British exports go to the EU, and the UK financial sector depends on free movement of capital between Britain and Europe. Prime Minister Theresa May knows this, and doesn’t want to risk a recession — but there’s still a chance she could be forced into one if negotiations fail.
2) “EEA + deal”: In this scenario, the UK negotiates a deal with the EU, which would allow it to remain in the EEA (or at very least get more privileged access to it than most non-EU countries) but would exempt it from other EU rules — most notably, free migration rules — that Brexit supporters hate.
The problem: EU leaders are suggesting they won’t agree to this. They don’t want to reward Britain’s vote with favorable exit terms, for fear that voters in other countries (like Greece, France, or the Netherlands) will take this as a sign that they could get a similar deal. So while this solution would work for British voters and leaders, it’ll be tough to get European leaders to agree.
3) “Annul vote”: In this scenario, British leaders call backsies on the referendum results and simply refuse to ever submit Article 50 notification. This would prevent the UK leadership from owning the disastrous economic consequences of Brexit, and European leaders would celebrate it as a step away from the brink.
The problem: It’s not obvious that this is even legal — that is, whether EU law permits a country to back out of the Article 50 process once it begins. But even setting that aside, “Leave” supporters in the UK would feel betrayed and very, very angry — and even some “Remain” supporters might see it as undemocratic. The political backlash against a UK prime minister who calls “Bracksies” could be immense.
So every option available to the UK leadership right now is either politically unviable or economically disastrous. Nobody in British politics has a good answer to this dilemma, which partially explains why Brexit hasn’t happened yet. It also explains why nobody knows when and how a Brexit will happen down the road — if it ends up happening at all.
Watch: What Brexit means for the pound
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