The roughly 55,000 residents of Wisconsin Rapids, Wisconsin — the first to cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump this year, starting September 19 — will be joined by voters in Minnesota, Wyoming, Vermont, and South Dakota by September 23, as early voting periods start across the country.
Election Day is sooner than you think: the rise of early voting, explained
We are still more than a month away from Election Day, but early voting windows — when eligible voters can cast their ballots, either in person or by mail, prior to Election Day — have begun; 37 states and the District of Columbia will offer early voting without requiring an absentee excuse or justification this year.
The practice has dramatically changed Election Day from the day of voting to a day of voting. As John Fortier wrote in his 2006 book Absentee and Early Voting Trends, Promises, and Perils, it has prompted a stark shift in the past three decades:
In 1980 approximately four million ballots were cast before Election Day, compared to over twenty-seven million in 2004. Where one in twenty cast an absentee ballot in presidential elections prior to 1980, today nearly one in four uses one of the several alternatives to election-day polling places.
Approximately one in three voters used some kind of early voting alternative in 2012. Since then, even more states have opened up polls prior to the 2016 Election Day.
The trend is not without controversy: Some assert that early voting could allow for more voter fraud (although there’s little evidence of this), and others argue that by voting more than 40 days before the election, as some states allow, Americans are voting “on a different set of facts” — a fundamental disruption of democracy, as Eugene Kontorovich and John McGinnis, professors at Northwestern University School of Law, argue for Politico. In other words, who knows what Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton could do in the days leading up to November 8.
But on the other hand, many experts say early voting can be especially consequential for minority communities and allows voters to participate in the democratic process without missing school or work, waiting in long lines at the polls, or limiting themselves to one day of voting.
“More and more people are casting ballots before Election Day, and it doesn’t look like a trend that is going in another direction,” said Jennifer Clark, counsel at New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice, who focuses on voting rights.
Who are early voters?
Put simply, early voters are decided voters, Paul Gronke, an early voting expert and political scientist with Reed College, tells me. “Individuals who cast an early ballot make up their minds early,” he says.
There has been a shift in early voting demographics in the past two decades. “Prior to 2008, these ‘decided’ early voters matched demographic patterns that are well-established in American politics,” Gronke said; they were older, educated, wealthier, ideological and highly partisan. And for the most part, particularly with mail-in voters, these early voters mostly leaned Republican, which can also be attributed to a strong GOP push for mail-in absentee voting in the 1990s and 2000s. Meanwhile, in-person early voters tend to lean more toward Democrats.
But in 2008, Barack Obama’s presidential campaign began to change the tide, targeting early voting campaigns in areas with higher Democratic voter potential — areas that also had higher populations of African-American voters. Black churches used Sunday services to push people to the polls in what they called “souls to the polls” initiatives, Barry Burden, a political scientist with the University of Wisconsin Madison, recalls.
It was wildly successful. In North Carolina in 2008, more than 70 percent of African Americans voted during the early voting period, Clark said. This trend continued in 2012.
While African-American voters were not typically billed as early voters, Gronke notes that black Americans fit the behavioral profile of a “decided voter.”
“There was very little that would change the minds of many African Americans, particularly in 2008, when they had the first opportunity ever to cast a ballot for an African-American presidential candidate,” Gronke said. “Why wait?”
Some argue that early voting “limits the set of information available to voters,” as Kontorovich and McGinnis wrote at Politico, but Clark says “that argument tends to not give voters enough credit.”
There are some states that open early voting windows more than a month before Election Day — and sometimes before presidential debates — but most early voting happens closer to Election Day and after debates.
According to Gronke, who said he asks survey questions on this regularly, there “is virtually no evidence of ‘voter regret.’”
Early voting is a growing and popular trend, but it’s still unclear whether it helps voter turnout overall
There are clear reasons why voters like early voting reforms: There are long lines at the polls on Election Day, and early voting expands voters’ options, especially when it comes to missing work or school.
But there are also political and administrative incentives for early voting, Burden said.
“Voters like it — politicians like to make them happy, and the party and candidates like early voting because there is the certainty of banking voters before Election Day,” Burden said, noting that early voting is likely less of a hassle and less expensive for polling administrators.
Whether it is an effective way to get out the vote is still up for debate. Burden’s research found early voting actually decreased turnout, and the surge in 2008 has remained relatively stagnant since, possibly implying it might have had more to do with the candidate than the actual voting reform.
Burden attributes the decrease in voter turnout to a “dilution of the power of Election Day” — that having many days of voting reduces the pressure to vote altogether.
But not everyone agrees. Gronke’s study cites research showing the opposite — early voting can increase voter turnout by 2 to 4 percent, especially when offered with accessible polling places and after-work and weekend hours, Clark adds. So it may matter more how early voting is implemented than purely whether the state offers it.
Either way, turning back now would be more disruptive than just expanding the practice, Burden said.
“There is an asymmetric effect,” he said: With more and more people using early voting and liking it, rolling back early voting would do more harm to turnout.
There is some controversy over early voting — but mostly in swing states
There has been tremendous growth in early voting opportunities in the past two election cycles. Even so, there have been attempts to roll back the reform.
Proponents of early voting say it’s just a bipartisan debate and that the arguments against early voting hold little water.
“There is nothing about the policy that is intrinsically Democratic or Republican, because we see this became popular regardless of the political leaning,” Clark tells me. The controversy comes with where these rollbacks are happening: swing states.
States like North Carolina and Ohio have become early voting battlegrounds, where Republican-controlled state legislatures have tried to cut in-person early voting days, which tend to favor Democrats. Advocates for reducing early voting argue it leads to more voter fraud, though there is no substantive evidence that voter fraud is a problem. In 2014, the US Government Accountability Office concluded that the rate of voter fraud is between 0.1 percent and zero percent.
And according to Clark, voter fraud is more common with mail-in ballots — which are not being contested — rather than in-person voting. In North Carolina, Republican lawmakers were even making the argument that voters could die between their early vote and Election Day.
There’s also some explicit evidence to the partisan politics behind these efforts, after a GOP consultant told the Washington Post that the push in North Carolina was to minimize African-American Democratic voters.
“Look, if African Americans voted overwhelmingly Republican, they would have kept early voting right where it was,” the consultant, Carter Wrenn, said. “It wasn’t about discriminating against African Americans. They just ended up in the middle of it because they vote Democrat.”
What we should watch for in 2016
With more states offering early voting than ever before, it’s a good time to look at voter turnout and demographics.
“There are two groups to track during the early voting period: Hispanics and rural whites,” voting turnout specialist Michael McDonald, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida, told CNBC.
Rural, low-income white Americans have become an important coalition behind the Trump campaign, and Hispanic voters, part of the Democratic coalition, historically have lower voter turnout rates than African Americans and low-income white voters. “There is speculation that Trump’s rhetoric could entice Hispanics to vote against him, and there is some evidence in polls that Hispanic voting enthusiasm is running higher than normal,” McDonald told CNBC.
Early voting is usually a good measure of enthusiasm, Gronke notes; lots of early voters means lots of decided voters.
And while there doesn’t seem to be much enthusiasm for either candidate this year, there is some speculation that people voting against the opposing candidate rather than affirmatively voting for their candidate might bring people to the polls.
“Trump continues to make statements that alienate African-American voters, and he struggles to get beyond 2 percent in some state polls. Under that circumstance, and faced with a well-oiled Democratic [get-out-the-vote] machine, why would African-American voters wait?” Gronke said, noting that Trump also doesn’t seem to have much of an early voter ballot-chasing operation.
“All of this might lead to an early electorate that is even more Democratic and more diverse than in the Obama elections — but all of this is contingent on all kinds of assumptions,” Gronke said.
Here are the early voting rules in each state:
Early voting laws are different in every state – and sometimes, like in Wisconsin, determined by city or county. Currently 37 states offer some form of early voting. Here are the rules in each state:
Alabama
Alabama does not have early voting, and voters need a state-approved excuse to vote absentee.
Alaska
Early and in-person absentee voting starts on October 24.
Arizona
Arizona’s early voting period is October 12 through November 4.
Arkansas
Early voting and in-person absentee voting is October 24 through November 7.
California
Early voting in California varies by county. The earliest early voting date is October 10 in Los Angeles County.
Colorado
Early voting in Colorado begins October 24.
Connecticut
Connecticut does not have early voting, and voters need a state-approved excuse to vote absentee.
Delaware
Delaware does not have early voting, and voters need a state-approved excuse to vote absentee.
District of Columbia
Early voting begins on October 22 at One Judiciary Square andOctober 29 at additional polling stations.
Florida
Early voting must be made available between October 29 and November 5.
Georgia
Early voting is available October 17 through November 7.
Hawaii
Early voting starts on October 25 and is available through November 5.
Idaho
Early voting begins October 25 and is available through November 4.
Illinois
Early voting begins on September 29 at the local election authority or a temporary location and moves to permanent polling stations on October 24.
Indiana
Early voting begins on October 12 at the local county election board office or polling location.
Iowa
Early voting starts on September 29 and is available through November 7.
Kansas
Early voting starts on October 19 and is available through November 7.
Kentucky
Kentucky does not have early voting. Absentee voters may vote early with a state-approved excuse.
Louisiana
Early voting starts on October 25 and is available through November 1.
Maine
Early voting officially starts October 9 and is available through November 7, but the state allows people to vote as soon as ballots are made available.
Maryland
Early voting starts October 27 and is open until November 3.
Massachusetts
Early voting will be available for the first time in Massachusetts from October 24 through November 4.
Michigan
Michigan does not have early voting and requires voters to have a state-approved excuse to vote absentee.
Minnesota
Early voting begins September 23 and is open through November 7.
Mississippi
Mississippi does not have early voting and requires voters to have a state-approved excuse to vote absentee.
Missouri
Missouri does not have early voting and requires voters to have a state-approved excuse to vote absentee.
Montana
Early voting begins October 11 and is open through November 7, or as soon as ballots are ready.
Nebraska
Early voting begins October 10 and is open through November 7. Early ballots by mail are delivered by October 3.
Nevada
Early voting is October 22 through November 4.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire does not have early voting. Absentee voters need a state-approved excuse.
New Jersey
Early voting starts September 24 when mail-in ballots are sent out.
New Mexico
Early voting is October 11 through November 5.
New York
New York does not have early voting, and absentee voters must have a state-approved excuse.
North Carolina
Early voting is October 20 through November 5.
North Dakota
Early voting begins September 29.
Ohio
Early voting is October 12 through November 7.
Oklahoma
Early voting is November 3 through 5.
Oregon
Early voting begins October 19.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania does not have early voting, and voters need a state-approved excuse to vote absentee.
Rhode Island
Rhode Island does not have early voting, and absentee voters need a state-approved excuse.
South Carolina
South Carolina does not have early voting. Absentee voters need state-approved excuse.
South Dakota
Early voting is September 23 through November 7.
Tennessee
Early voting is October 19 through November 3.
Texas
Early voting is October 24 through November 4.
Utah
Early voting begins October 25 and is available until November 4.
Vermont
Early voting is September 23 through November 7.
Virginia
Virginia does not have early voting. Absentee voters need a state-approved excuse.
Washington
Early voting is October 21 through November 7.
West Virginia
Early voting begins October 26 and is available through November 5.
Wisconsin
Early voting opening dates are set by the county/municipality. Wisconsin Rapids began voting September 19 — the first in the country.
Wyoming
Early voting begins September 23 and is open until November 7.
