It appears young people are voting in the 2018 midterm elections after all.
Youth turnout this year is surpassing 2014 levels on several college campuses
It’s still early, but here’s what we know about youth turnout in 2018 so far.
Youth turnout has surpassed 2014 midterm numbers at several colleges across the country, according to the Tom Steyer-affiliated group NextGen, which focuses on turning out youth voters on college campuses.
This is important because young voters are far less likely to turn out in midterm elections than they are in presidential elections. This disadvantages Democrats, whom young voters tend to vote for more than Republicans. Midterm elections are historically dominated by older voters, a much more reliably Republican demographic.
There were some signs that could change in 2018 before Election Day; a biannual poll released by the Harvard University Institute of Politics showed that 40 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds said they will “definitely vote” in the 2018 midterm elections, a substantial increase from the 2014 and 2010 midterms.
The highest turnout percentage for the youth vote in midterms is 21 percent, which happened in 1986. The last midterms in 2014 had lower youth turnout, at just 16 percent.
Of course, we won’t know that number until days from now.
In the meantime, here’s what we know so far about increased turnout in key states:
- At the University of Arizona precinct in Tucson, Arizona, NextGen reported 2018 turnout was about halfway to 2016 presidential election turnout levels — and that was in the afternoon. And at three precincts NextGen was tracking around the state, turnout had well surpassed levels from the 2014 midterm elections.
- Here’s what lines looked like at Arizona State University in Tempe:
- The University of California-Irvine precinct surpassed 2014 turnout totals with early votes alone, according to NextGen. As of noon PT, 2018 turnout was more than four times the turnout of 2014, the group reported.
- Here’s some footage from UC-Irvine, from MSNBC’s Jacob Soboroff (see bottom tweet for Election Day).
- At Penn State University, NextGen was reporting 1 in 4 registered voters have cast ballots by around 6 pm ET. In 2014, fewer than 1 in 20 registered voters at Penn State actually voted.
- At the University of Florida, students cast more than 1,000 additional votes than they did in 2014, by around 6 pm ET. NextGen estimated a 20 percent turnout jump from 2014.
- In New Hampshire, 2018 vote totals have surpassed 2014 vote totals at most colleges and universities NextGen was tracking by 4 pm.
This post will be updated.
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