What to expect at the fifth Democratic debate

The fifth Democratic presidential debate — which will once again feature 10 candidates — will be on Wednesday, November 20, from 9 to 11 ET at Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be broadcast by MSNBC.

The debate will be co-hosted by the Washington Post and will include an all-female panel of moderators, something that’s only happened twice before in presidential primary debates. Here’s where you can watch the livestream.

The debate is taking place as the Democratic race has hit a holding pattern: two new candidates, Deval Patrick and Michael Bloomberg, have recently signaled plans to jump in, while polling has remained relatively steady for the rest of the field.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is hanging onto a slight lead, as Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders continue to trail him. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has experienced a polling surge, though his campaign has stumbled in its attempts to reach out to and win over African American voters.

Wednesday’s debate marks a key opportunity for candidates who aren’t polling as highly to attempt a breakout moment, as well as a chance for the frontrunners to further establish themselves. Candidates are expected to duke it out over health care once more in light of Warren’s new plan to fund for Medicare-for-all — and the ongoing impeachment inquiry is set to hang over the whole night.

To qualify for this debate, all ten candidates had to reach a higher threshold than past debates when it came to polling and fundraising. In addition to securing at least 165,000 individual donors, they were required to reach 3 percent in four Democratic National Committee (DNC) approved surveys, or 5 percent in two DNC approved polls from the four earliest primary and caucus states.

The candidates who’ve qualified are:

The top three has remained consistent: Biden, Warren, and Sanders still comprise the top three, in that order, in national polls. The current RealClearPolitics polling average has Biden maintaining the lead at 27 percent, Warren in second at 20 percent, and Sanders coming in at 19 percent. Although polling between Biden and Warren tightened significantly in early October, Biden has pulled ahead slightly for the time being, while Sanders has seen a small uptick since the last debate.

There’s been another Buttigieg surge: Beyond the leading contenders, Buttigieg has seen a small but substantial national polling surge, coupled with strong support in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. In part due to his track record with black constituents as South Bend mayor, however, Buttigieg has struggled to pick up support from African American voters.

A recent misstep in which he promoted his Douglass Plan (a group of policies meant to address the concerns of African Americans) by aligning it with black leaders who were not endorsing his candidacy, has further drawn attention to this issue. Questions about Buttigieg’s support for and among African Americans are something he will likely have to address at the debate.

Lower polling candidates are struggling to hit the debate stage: Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, a candidate who had gained momentum after an early debate performance, did not qualify for this month’s debate. Others, including Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, also missed the necessary cutoff, a sign that more and more candidates may not be able to use the debate stage as a platform as requirements get stricter.

With the Iowa caucus roughly three months away, the 2020 Democratic field has now begun to winnow ... while also somehow expanding at the same time.

Even as candidates including former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Rep. Tim Ryan have dropped out, others like former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick have entered. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is also eying a potential run. These announcements have muddled the race some, and underscored how fluid it could still be.

According to an October poll from Rasmussen Reports, 28 percent of voters are still undecided, and a high proportion of voters in early states like South Carolina have said they could still change their vote.

Voters are likely paying closer attention to the November and December debates given the fast-approaching primaries, which kick off in February. Candidates face even more stringent qualification requirements for the December debate when they’ll have to hit 200,000 unique donors as well as 4 percent in four DNC-approved polls or 6 percent in two early-state polls.

Although there’s still quite a bit of time before voters officially head to the polls, support behind the top candidates is beginning to solidify, and middle-tier candidates like Harris, Buttigieg, and Booker are facing a tighter window to shore up their backing. For candidates who don’t make the stage at all, including Castro, the debates could also seriously limit the exposure they need to advance.

This is not to say that candidates who fail to make the November stage are sure to drop out. Former Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak, for example, has not made any of the debates so far, but has chosen to continue his campaign. However, entering the Iowa caucus without the momentum and name recognition debate appearances bring makes winning that contest a difficult proposition at best.