With Super Tuesday looming and the the Democratic presidential race still crowded, voters in South Carolina will head to the polls this Saturday, February 29, for the Palmetto State’s influential primary contest.
The primary is the last of four early-state contests and the first major test of black support for the remaining candidates in the Democratic presidential field (there are eight total, but Mike Bloomberg is not on the ballot in South Carolina). While polls will close at 7 pm ET, results may not be available until later Saturday night.
The state is widely considered former Vice President Joe Biden’s “firewall,” and he hasn’t downplayed that notion. In the 10th Democratic debate earlier this week, he was clear: “I will win South Carolina,” he said.
Polling bears out that confidence: Biden is leading in the FiveThirtyEight South Carolina polling average by just over 19 points, at 37.6 percent. Sen. Bernie Sanders, the current frontrunner for the nomination, is in second with 18.5 percent support, and billionaire Tom Steyer is the only other candidate in double digits at 12.9 percent.
For former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, however, the South Carolina primary could be tough going. In a recent Monmouth University poll, they were mired at 2 percent and 0 percent support, respectively, with black voters in the state, who made up about 61 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in 2016. Their difficulties with voters of color are well-documented.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren hasn’t had the same struggles with voters of color, but her campaign is still on the back foot heading into South Carolina: She currently sits at 7.2 percent — sixth place — in the FiveThirtyEight average.
For all the candidates, South Carolina could be “a critical springboard for Super Tuesday,” and will help prove (or disprove) their ability to appeal to a key Democratic demographic, Vox’s Li Zhou writes:
As the first major test of African American support, South Carolina could seriously help cull the field.
Follow along below for Vox’s coverage of the 2020 South Carolina primary, including results, breaking news updates, analysis, and more.
Biden got nearly two-thirds of the black vote in South Carolina
Betty Farr dances before a campaign event for Joe Biden in Spartanburg, South Carolina, on February 28, 2020. Sean Rayford/Getty ImagesThroughout his campaign for South Carolina, former Vice President Joe Biden has repeatedly stated that his appeal among black voters meant he would win that primary.
Exit poll data from Saturday’s contest now shows his confidence to be justified.
Read Article >Near-record turnout in South Carolina sets stage for Super Tuesday battles
Voters in Columbia, South Carolina stand in line for early voting on February 27, 2020. Sean Rayford/Getty ImagesAlmost all results are in from Saturday’s South Carolina Democratic primary, and former Vice President Joe Biden has picked up his first win in the race. For South Carolina, there was another milestone: a near-record primary turnout.
With 94 percent of precincts reporting, and the final 6 percent nearly finished with their tallies, South Carolina’s Election Commission has found 524,000 voters cast ballots in Saturday’s primary.
Read Article >Rep. Jim Clyburn’s endorsement gave Biden some serious momentum in South Carolina
Joe Biden declares victory in South Carolina thanking Rep. Jim Clyburn, standing behind him on stage, in Columbia, South Carolina, on February 29, 2020. Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesA last-second endorsement from South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn, the third-ranking Democrat in the House, appears to have given former Vice President Joe Biden a substantial boost in his decisive victory in South Carolina’s presidential primary on Saturday.
According to exit polls conducted by Edison Research, 61 percent of Democratic voters said Clyburn’s endorsement was an important factor in their decision. And 27 percent of voters said the endorsement was “the most important factor” in their candidate choice.
Read Article >Trump’s push for South Carolina Republicans to vote for Sanders went unheeded
President Trump held a rally on the eve of South Carolina’s primary in North Charleston, South Carolina, on February 28, 2020. Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesDespite President Donald Trump urging South Carolina Republicans to turn out in Saturday’s open Democratic primary to vote for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the Washington Post’s exit poll shows very few did.
Trump has openly encouraged Republicans in other states with open primaries — primaries in which state residents of any party affiliation can participate — to attempt to skew the vote in past 2020 primary contests. He did so again during a Friday rally in North Charleston, South Carolina, taking an informal audience poll on which Democratic candidate his South Carolina supporters felt would be easiest to defeat (Sanders “won” by drawing the loudest cheers from Trump’s audience).
Read Article >Who is going to win the South Carolina primary, according to the polls
Former Vice President Joe Biden addresses supporters in Galivants Ferry, South Carolina. Sean Rayford/Getty ImagesWhen former Vice President Joe Biden proclaimed “I will win South Carolina,” at Tuesday’s Democratic debate in Charleston, it wasn’t just braggadocio — all of the most recent South Carolina polls suggest he’s right.
In fact, nearly every poll taken in February found Biden to have a sizable lead on his fellow candidates.
Read Article >The slow implosion of Joe Biden’s big bet on South Carolina, explained
Joe Biden addresses the crowd during a campaign party in Columbia, South Carolina on February 11, 2020. Sean Rayford/Getty ImagesJoe Biden has banked his presidential campaign on winning South Carolina — a bet that is looking less and less likely to pay off.
For one, the latest polls don’t bode well for the former vice president. While Biden once held a 20-point lead in South Carolina, he was up by just 5 points in a January Post and Courier poll. Similarly, the RealClearPolitics average has him less than 4 points ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders, followed closely by billionaire activist Tom Steyer.
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