Editor’s note, November 6, 6 am ET: Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election. For more of our 2024 campaign coverage, click here. To support independent journalism that matters, become a Vox Member today.
The serious implications of a Republican Senate
GOP lawmakers will have a pivotal say over judges — and policy priorities.
Li Zhou is a former politics reporter at Vox, where she covers Congress and elections. Previously, she was a tech policy reporter at Politico and an editorial fellow at the Atlantic.
Republicans have won a majority in the Senate, flipping the body after four years of Democratic control.
This was the predicted outcome given how vulnerable Democrats were this cycle: While they were defending nine battleground seats, Republicans were defending only three. The GOP successfully flipped key states, including Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, while holding off unexpectedly competitive challenges in places like Nebraska and Texas.
The new Republican Senate majority will have a chance to govern with a Republican in the White House, after former President Donald Trump won a second term early on Wednesday morning, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris.
In their campaigns, Republican Senate candidates leaned heavily on critiques of Democrats’ economic policies as many voters continued to grapple with inflation and high costs of living. They also kept up fear-mongering on immigration, arguing that only they could offer solutions to border crossing surges, like the one in 2023. Overall, because they weren’t in control of the Senate, Republican candidates were able to capitalize on anti-incumbent sentiment — and current discontent — as they campaigned to take back certain seats.
Republicans’ gains will have major implications for the incoming Trump administration. A Republican Senate will offer him a nearly blank check on appointments, and allow him to resume stacking the courts with his judges. Depending on the outcome of House races, a GOP Senate could also enable the second Trump administration to pursue policy priorities like rolling back the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and renewing corporate tax cuts.
What Republican Senate control will mean
The first Trump presidency was a showcase for what happens when both the White House and Senate are held by Republicans — and a preview of what’s to come.
In his first term, Trump was able to advance his judges at a rapid pace, reshaping the Circuit Court and Supreme Court with conservative picks. In total, Trump was able to get 234 judges confirmed, including the three who now sit on the Supreme Court who proved integral to overturning Roe v. Wade.
Similarly, Trump faced little backlash or accountability for his rhetoric or policy decisions throughout his term, including attempts to implement a Muslim travel ban or to shut down the government as leverage for funding for a wall along the US-Mexico border. Although some Republican senators spoke out, few truly vocalized their opposition to Trump or scrutinized his actions. When Trump was impeached for his role in fomenting the January 6 insurrection, for example, only seven Republicans voted to convict him — the rest voted to acquit, and only three of those votes to convict will return in the new Congress.
If Republicans maintain control of the House, a unified GOP Congress could also help Trump advance his legislative agenda.
Trump has focused more on executive actions he’d like to take (such as tariffs, immigration, and international relations) than on a congressional agenda. However, Republicans have long expressed an interest in curbing access to the ACA. One issue lawmakers will weigh in the next year is the expiration of ACA premium subsidies, Stat reports. House Speaker Mike Johnson has emphasized already that he’s interested in major “reform” to the health care act as well.
The tax cuts that Republicans passed in 2017 are also up for renewal, and will be another issue lawmakers in the next Congress will need to tackle. Trump has suggested cutting the corporate tax rate and has floated some income tax cuts too. Regardless of whether they take the House, Senate Republicans will likely advocate for those cuts. And Republicans could push, too, for expanded oil and gas drilling leases that Democrats had previously curbed.
Many of those priorities will depend on the outcome of the race to control the House — but with Trump in the White House, the upper chamber will have a significant role to play no matter what.
Update, Wednesday November 6, 9:15 am ET: This piece has been updated to reflect the results of the presidential election.
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