The first two states in the Democratic primary elections cast some doubts as to whether voter turnout would increase much in 2020. But after Super Tuesday’s races, Democrats can likely put those doubts behind them.
The Democratic voter surge was very real on Super Tuesday
Democrats came out in big numbers on Super Tuesday.
In most states, voter turnout was significantly higher this year than it was in 2016:
- In Alabama, turnout increased from more than 398,000 in 2016 to more than 451,000 in 2020.
- In Arkansas, turnout increased from more than 218,000 with all votes counted to over 228,000 with more than 99 percent of precincts reporting.
- In North Carolina, turnout increased from more than 1.1 million with all votes counted to more than 1.3 million with 99 percent of precincts reporting.
- In Tennessee, turnout went from more than 371,000 to more than 513,000.
- In Texas, turnout rose from more than 1.4 million with all votes counted to more than 2.1 million with more than 99 percent of precincts reporting.
- In Vermont, turnout increased from nearly 135,000 with all votes counted to more than 157,000 with roughly 89 percent of precincts reporting.
- In Virginia, turnout grew from nearly 783,000 to more than 1.3 million.
There was, however, one exception: Democratic voter turnout actually decreased in Oklahoma, going from nearly 336,000 in 2016 to nearly 304,000 in 2020.
It’s unclear how much voter turnout changed in Massachusetts and California because both states are still counting votes.
Turnout also surged in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Utah, but all four of those states used caucuses back in 2016, making any direct comparisons difficult.
It’s unclear what’s driving this, although polls have shown that voters are enthusiastic about casting a ballot compared to 2016. One likely explanation for that is President Donald Trump. Defeating the Republican incumbent has fueled Democrats throughout the current primary season — it was the top priority among 6 in 10 voters on Tuesday, according to exit polls — perhaps leading to higher turnout almost across the board.
Beyond the effect Trump is having, the current race is simply much more contested. Whereas Hillary Clinton was widely seen as the likely nominee for all of 2016, the current primary elections are closer, even as they’ve narrowed down to a fight between former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders. That likely is driving some voter enthusiasm as well.
Still, Super Tuesday’s strong turnout wasn’t a given. In Iowa, which still uses a caucus, 2020 turnout was roughly on pace with 2016 turnout. In New Hampshire, turnout was up but not by nearly as much as seen on Super Tuesday. Those early signs were red flags for Democrats hoping for a blue wave to defeat Trump in November.
It wasn’t until Nevada’s caucuses in February and South Carolina’s primary this past weekend that things started looking much better for Democratic turnout. Super Tuesday cemented the trend.
High turnout on Super Tuesday may not mean Democratic turnout is bound to surge in the 2020 general election. As Molly Olmstead explained in Slate, “Ultimately, there’s just not enough data to know if there’s a real relationship between primary and general election turnout.”
But it’s certainly not bad news for Democrats that voters seem excited about the primaries.
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