Trump just made it harder to have a kid in America

This story originally appeared in Kids Today, Vox’s newsletter about kids, for everyone. Sign up here for future editions.

Having a baby is expensive.

You need a car seat. A stroller. A high chair. You need the baby shampoo and then the different baby shampoo for when your baby is allergic to the baby shampoo (maybe just me?).

All told, it costs about $20,000 to care for a baby for a year in the US, according to BabyCenter. And thanks to the slate of new tariffs announced on April 2 by the Trump administration and imposed in recent days, it’s about to get a lot more expensive.

Trump reversed some tariffs on Wednesday after markets plunged, but went on to increase tariffs on China to 125 percent, while maintaining a 10 percent baseline tariff on goods from nearly all other countries. The tariffs will affect a wide variety of goods, but experts and advocates have voiced special concern about baby items like cribs and strollers, many of which are manufactured overseas, often in China. These items aren’t optional: “The baby has to sleep somewhere,” Martha Gimbel, executive director and co-founder of the Budget Lab at Yale, told me.

Even after Trump’s partial reversal, parents could have to contend with myriad price increases for smaller items, from onesies to blueberries. The Budget Lab, which analyzes the impact of federal policy proposals, has estimated the tariffs announced as of April 2 could cost an average household $3,800 per year, or $73 per week, a cost that could hit families especially hard during the early years of parenthood, already a time of enormous financial upheaval.

“The Trump administration maintains regular contact with business leaders, industry groups, and everyday Americans, especially about major policy decisions like President Trump’s reciprocal tariff action,” White House deputy press secretary Kush Desai wrote in an email in response to my question about tariffs and costs. “The only special interest guiding President Trump’s decision-making, however, is the best interest of the American people — such as addressing the national emergency posed by our country running chronic trade deficits.”

Trump’s concern with trade deficits is at odds with some of his other stated priorities. He has said “we want more babies” in America, and advisers and members of his administration have repeatedly advocated for boosting birth rates. But Trump’s tariff policies risk making it harder for Americans to have children and forcing families to make difficult choices that could affect kids’ quality of life.

“You’re taking money away that parents can spend on their children,” Gimbel said. “It means that parents can invest less in their kids.”

Last week, on what he called “Liberation Day,” Trump announced tariffs of at least 10 percent on all imported goods, with items from some countries, like China, subject to rates of 34 percent or more. He had previously announced (and in some cases walked back) tariffs on products made in China, Canada, and Mexico; steel; cars, and more. On Wednesday, hours after the “Liberation Day” tariffs went into effect, the White House backed down on some of the highest rates but actually increased the tariff on China.

Trump’s trade policy remains rife with uncertainties and could certainly change yet again. However, some lawmakers were worried about the impact of tariffs on families even before “Liberation Day.” On April 1, Rep. Kelly Morrison (D-MN) and 44 other members of Congress sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, warning that the proposed tariffs (then just on Canada, Mexico, and China) would “raise the cost of goods necessary to care for young children, such as car seats, high chairs, strollers, and cribs.”

A lot of these items, including popular brands like Chicco and UppaBaby, are manufactured overseas, according to Consumer Reports. They’re already expensive, often costing hundreds of dollars; a stroller and car seat are often the most costly items parents buy for a new baby.

It’s difficult to know exactly how much tariffs will raise prices, because businesses could respond to higher costs in different ways (and because it’s unclear how long the tariffs will stay in place, or whether their size will change). But just to give a sense of what the current tariffs look like in raw numbers, one fairly standard model of Chicco car seat, made in China, retailed for $209.99 at Amazon on Wednesday morning; adding a 125 percent tariff to that would bring the total to $472.48, or about a $262 difference. Even Trump’s original proposal of a 34 percent tariff would hike the cost by about $71.

Many parents will have no choice but to pay the higher prices, because items like car seats are needs rather than wants. “If the price of avocados increases, most people will likely buy less — they may skip them entirely, swap queso for guacamole, or invite fewer friends so they have to make less guacamole,” Dipanjan Chatterjee, vice president and principal analyst at the research firm Forrester, told me in an email. “However, car seats are not optional; they are mandated by law.” Most hospitals require a car seat to even discharge a baby after birth.

While the big stuff like strollers and car seats may be the most visible, tariffs could impact a host of smaller items as well. Babies and young kids famously grow out of (and poop all over) their clothes incredibly quickly, necessitating constant replacement. With clothing prices expected to rise, “the financial burden on parents is significant, and it is one they will have to contend with over and over again,” Chatterjee said.

Diapers and formula — two more huge line items in family budgets — are often made in the US, but not always. During our interview, Gimbel discovered that her 9-month-old’s diapers were made in Canada and hastily took steps to order more.

Then there’s food, likely one of the first categories to show price increases due to tariffs, according to Gimbel. Fresh fruit, in particular, is often imported, and tariffs could drive up families’ already considerable berry budgets. Families may be able to switch to cheaper options, but young kids are less flexible around food than adults are, and grocery bills were straining many parents’ finances even before tariff talk began.

Higher prices on items like strollers and car seats could push more parents toward Buy Nothing groups and other secondhand solutions, already popular in many urban areas. But that won’t work for everything — car seats, for example, have expiration dates after which they’re no longer considered safe, and some experts recommend against getting them secondhand. Also, “you cannot get secondhand diapers,” Gimbel said.

Finding a used alternative for other items is also an additional task for overstretched parents. Tariffs will force them to pay more either in money or in time spent sourcing cheaper options, Gimbel said.

New parents are also ill-placed to afford sudden price hikes. They tend to have lower incomes than the average American, in part because they’re simply earlier in their careers, Gimbel said. Families with babies and young kids also often see their household income drop because one parent takes unpaid time off to care for a child (the US remains the only wealthy country without nationwide paid parental leave).

Those most affected by tariffs will be working-class and poor families, because any price increase represents a larger percentage of their income. A $262 price hike on a car seat (or even a $71 hike), for example, is going to hurt a lot more if you make $30,000 a year than if you make $100,000. Lower-income families will have to make more difficult sacrifices if prices rise, said Kimberly Clausing, an economist at UCLA. That could mean skimping on basic necessities like heat, food, or medical care.

Low-income families are also more vulnerable if tariffs lead to a recession, something many experts predicted after Liberation Day. “It’s not just ‘pay more at the store,’ it’s the fact that you might lose your job and your livelihood altogether,” Clausing said.

And while parents will surely do their best to shield their kids from the impact of higher prices and economic turmoil, suddenly having less money in the house has an effect on kids too. Policies that put money into parents’ pockets, like publicly funded child care and child tax credits, can improve outcomes for children, improving high school graduation rates and even boosting future earnings. A policy that takes money away from parents could have the opposite effect, Gimbel said, disadvantaging kids down the road.

Supporters of Trump’s tariffs have argued that Americans are too accustomed to “cheap goods.” But the impact for families won’t just be about making do with a smaller TV. It could mean sending your kid to school in shoes that hurt, or stopping contributions to a college fund, or foregoing therapy for a child with a disability because you can no longer manage the cost.

“Having more money to be able to spend on and invest in your kid makes a difference to you, and it makes a difference to your kid,” Gimbel said. Having less money will make a difference, too.

The Trump administration has gotten rid of an office responsible for overseeing child care centers in federal buildings, which could lead to higher costs and center closures.

A second child has died as the measles outbreak that began in Texas continues to spread.

In better news: About two weeks ago, a mother and three children — a third-grader, a 10th-grader, and an 11th-grader — were taken into immigration custody in Sackets Harbor, New York, the small town where Trump “border czar” Tom Homan lives. But after hundreds protested and the principal of the children’s school wrote a letter emphasizing “how long every hour feels for a third grader in a detention center,” the family was reportedly released this week.

My older kid and I have been reading The Legend of Brightblade, a graphic novel about a society rebuilding itself after a period known as “the dark years.”

I’ve been thinking a lot about young kids and the future recently, and how talking to them can force us to step outside the confines of our current moment and consider how different the world could look in 10 or 20 years. In the coming weeks, I’m planning a newsletter on kids’ hopes and dreams, and I’d love to hear from you: What do the kids in your life want to be when they grow up? What do they want to do in the world? Let me know at anna.north@vox.com.