What happens if Trump successfully pushes our closest allies away?

Germany had a major election last weekend, one that left its center-left ruling party, the Social Democratic Party ruling party in the dust, and the conservative Christian Democratic Union ascendant once again. The country’s likely next leader, Friedrich Merz, took to the airwaves after the results were announced and proclaimed that it was time for not just a new Germany, but for a new Europe.

How much Europe should rely on the United States is an issue that has loomed over European politics since President Donald Trump took power just over a month ago, bringing his isolationist “America First” vision with him.

In his post-race remarks, Merz told German voters, “It is clear that the Americans, at any case the Americans in this administration, do not care much about the fate of Europe” and that he plans to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that we achieve independence from the US.”

And he’s not the only European leader talking about instituting a seismic shift in US-European relations. France’s President Emmanuel Macron recently wrote, “Europeans must invest better, more, and together in their security and defense—both for today and for the future.”

Meanwhile, the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, “We have to recognize the new era that we are in, not cling hopelessly to the comforts of the past. It’s time for us to take responsibility for our security — for our continent.”

The leaders’ remarks are evidence of a changed mindset among Europe’s leaders — one that advocates for a Europe that looks out for its own, on its own.

To understand where this is coming from, and what it all means, I reached out to the University of Texas at Austin’s professor Zeynep Somer-Topcu, who focuses on European politics. Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below.

What’s behind the push for a new type of self-sufficiency in Europe?

President Trump’s comments from last week on Ukraine and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy created an explosion in Europe. [Among other things, Trump appeared to back Russia’s vision for the end of the war, and said some unpleasant things about Zelenskyy.] European leaders are very concerned.

They realize that they may be alone in defending Ukraine, and they need to do that at all costs, given what the Russian threat to them would be if Ukraine falls.

That’s why Merz is saying Germany needs to lead when it comes to defense, and how it is time for Germany (which does not have its own nuclear weapons) to explore nuclear cooperation with France and the UK, which do have their own nuclear arsenal, in order to replace the American nuclear protection that has been guaranteed — until Trump’s administration.

That’s the defense side, but there’s an economic side as well. Trump’s discussion about potential tariffs creates big economic risks — especially because Europe’s economy is already not doing super well.

A more inward-looking US means that Europe needs to come together and be more independent economically and defensively. And Merz is definitely hoping that he, and Germany, can lead in this effort.

Is the vision Merz paints feasible?

There are a bunch of moving parts.

The European Union needs to come together, and that’s been a challenge. The nations of the European Union have mostly been able to agree on issues like agriculture, fishing, and economic policies. However, when it comes to defense and military, the European Union member countries have been very reluctant over the past several decades to create a common military or defense system. Nothing will change unless individual countries actually come together and push for more European Union integration on these issues.

There are so many different member countries in the European Union with diverging interests. Hungary has completely different policies toward Russia than France or Germany. It will be really hard to unite behind a common EU defense policy at this point, given the differences.

The other wildcard is where the UK stands on all this — the United Kingdom now being outside the European Union.

When they were part of the EU, the UK was one of the biggest countries in terms of the European Union’s budget, and in terms of defense spending. I don’t think that we’ll see the UK push to regain EU membership, but closer cooperation when it comes to defense and security is something that Europe needs, to the point where you might not even see it happen within the European Union framework, but in closer ties between the UK, France, and Germany.

Though the UK traditionally has been a very close ally of the US, recently, the UK government has been moving a bit closer to the European Union and Europe more generally. They want a separate UK-EU security pact to cover security, defense and foreign policy cooperation, but also more cooperation economically as well, because they realized, if the US is looking inward, that likely also means the US is moving away from the UK as well. And that viewpoint is spreading: Public opinion in the UK is very much against the US right now.

A lot depends on what’s going to happen within Germany, which faces two big challenges against this Merz plan to become more independent.

One, Merz’s party didn’t win an outright majority in last weekend’s elections. That means he needs to work with another party to make things happen. That really limits the abilities of European countries to take any action, regardless of what Germany’s leader says that they should do.

The second thing that limits them internally is a constitutional amendment that restricts Germany’s annual structural deficits. That limits the government’s ability to respond flexibly to economic downturns, but also, to engage in the kind of defense spending required for Germany to become independent defensively.

The problem for Merz is Germany requires a two thirds parliamentary majority for any kind of constitutional change, and Merz’s likely coalition is very short of that.

To get around this, Merz has suggested trying to change the constitution now. This current parliament that has been in power since 2021 is going to go on until late March. He’s hoping that current lawmakers have the numbers to make the change, so when the new parliament comes, Germany can actually start spending more on defense.

It sounds like you’re saying there’s a lot of ways any attempt to unify Europe could go awry. Say this effort fails and the EU can’t come together. What happens then?

I see the glass as half full.

I do think the EU will find a way, as the threats made by President Trump become even more real, whether the tariffs come in, or Russia wins the war and controls Ukrainian territory. All those things are going to change the dynamics in Europe, and force countries to overcome these challenges that I’ve been talking about.

In times of crisis, alliances can come together very quickly.

What does a world in which Europe is more interconnected than ever, but less connected to the US mean for the rest of the world?

The European Union, in terms of its economic power, is on par with the US and China. The EU could have an opportunity to really lead, particularly in less developed regions now that USAID, of course, is stripped of its funding. The EU could emerge from this more powerful.

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