Welcome to The Logoff. Today I’m focusing on Donald Trump’s effect on the economy, because we’re seeing some early indications of how the president’s policies are affecting the rest of us — and because the markets may influence his behavior going forward.
This isn’t the economy Trump promised
This week’s rocky economic news is a reminder that Trump was never going to work the miracles he’d promised.
Patrick Reis was the senior politics and ideas editor at Vox. He previously worked at Rolling Stone, the Washington Post, Politico, National Journal, and Seattle’s Real Change News. As a reporter and editor, he has worked on coverage of campaign politics, economic policy, the federal death penalty, climate change, financial regulation, and homelessness.
What’s the latest? We got two early signs of how Trump’s economy is doing today. The government reported that the US added a net 151,000 jobs in February — slightly less than the average growth for the past 12 months (168,000). And the financial markets closed their worst week since early September.
Is this mediocre economy Trump’s fault? During the period of inflation under Joe Biden, his defenders were quick to point out that the economy is influenced by factors outside the president’s control. The same is true for the current president.
But Trump is far from blameless. The job growth estimate reflects some, but not all, of the administration’s mass layoffs of federal workers. And on the markets, analysts say the uncertainty of Trump’s implementation — and then partial walkback — of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China drove the slide.
What’s the big picture? Trump’s promises of an instant economic boom were always nonsensical. The US economy is a behemoth that takes time to change course, even under the most pro-growth policies. And very few — if any — economists think mass federal layoffs and hefty tariffs are a recipe for growth.
Perhaps more interesting is how (and whether) the market slides will affect Trump going forward. As observers weigh whether Trump will go through with the massive tariffs he’s continually threatening, skeptics have said that bad market reactions could restrain the administration. But it’s just too soon to know: Trump on Thursday said his walkback of tariffs this week had “nothing to do with the market.”
And with that, it’s time to log off...
It’s choose-your-own-adventure Friday. If you’re in the reading mood, Vox’s resident book critic, Constance Grady, has this illuminating piece on the history of The Great Gatsby. The book turns 100 this year, and its backstory is fascinating. If you’re in the mood for lighter fare, I absolutely loved this three-minute BBC Earth video about mudskippers — a fish (yes, I checked) that can walk on land and skip across the water. I hope you have a great and restorative weekend. I’ll see you back here on Monday.
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