The imminent government shutdown, briefly explained

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Welcome to The Logoff: The federal government is hours away from the start of a near-certain shutdown — and, potentially, an unprecedented power grab by President Donald Trump.

What’s going on? Government funding runs out tonight at midnight, which means the government will shut down at 12:01 am tomorrow unless Congress passes a funding bill first. After talks between Trump and congressional Democrats fell through on Monday, that doesn’t look like it will happen.

Why hasn’t Congress passed a funding bill? Even though Republicans have unified control of the government, they need Democratic votes in the Senate to pass a bill under current rules. Democrats are withholding those votes unless Republicans agree to also extend health care subsidies that are about to expire and reverse earlier cuts to Medicaid.

Outside of the specific health care fight, this shutdown has broader stakes for Democrats: Their base is increasingly furious with party leadership for not doing more to resist Trump, and the shutdown is a way to do that — or at least look like they’re doing something.

So what happens now? The government will shut down — and then it’s hard to say. As my colleague Eric Levitz wrote yesterday, Democrats are taking a big risk by moving forward with a government shutdown and hoping that Trump is bluffing.

If he isn’t bluffing, however, this shutdown could look far different from those in the past: The Trump administration has already threatened to fire federal workers outright rather than furlough them, and to further gut the regulatory state.

When — and how — does this all end? We don’t know. The longest (partial) government shutdown in history, during Trump’s first term, lasted 35 days and ended after Trump backed down. In this case, it’s possible Democrats could relinquish their health care demands and agree to pass a short-term measure to reopen the government — or the shutdown could push Senate Republicans to do away with the filibuster and obviate the need for Democratic votes.

Hi readers, I have another Unexplainable podcast for you tonight; they’re featuring an episode of Sean Illing’s wonderful podcast The Gray Area with author Olga Khazan. Sean and Olga go deep on whether it’s really possible to change who you are as a person — it’s a great episode and you can listen here. We’ll see you back here tomorrow!