Is the Strait of Hormuz really open?

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Welcome to The Logoff: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is open — but there’s no peace deal yet, and there are plenty of unanswered questions. Here’s what we do know:

What’s happening with Hormuz? On Friday, Iran said that it was reopening the Strait of Hormuz for at least the remainder of the US-Iran ceasefire, which is currently set to expire next week. In a post announcing the move, Iran’s foreign minister cited Thursday’s ceasefire in Lebanon as a reason for the reopening.

It’s another positive sign in ongoing US-Iran talks, which have yet to produce a deal, and it could have a quick impact on gas prices in the US, NPR reports, as oil prices also fall.

But plenty of hurdles remain. For one, President Donald Trump says he intends to keep the US blockade of the strait in place until a deal is reached. That means that while the strait might be reopened to much commercial traffic, Iranian oil likely won’t be able to get out.

There’s also the question of how open the strait really is, Friday’s announcement aside. As the BBC reports, while Iran has previously shared a map with two ostensibly open maritime routes, trackers suggest that few vessels have actually passed through so far. Part of the problem might be the naval mines Iran has laid in the strait, some of which it reportedly cannot locate or remove.

Is a peace deal close? No one seems to know. Trump has suggested that the US and Iran have reached an agreement on Iran’s nuclear material (Trump calls it “dust”), which he wants removed from the country. But Reuters reported Friday that there are still “significant differences” preventing a deal, including around Iran’s nuclear program.

We’re likely to learn more about where things stand this weekend, as talks continue. Right now, the two countries are staring down a Wednesday deadline, after which the current ceasefire expires. However, if negotiations are ongoing and the Strait of Hormuz remains open, it’s not hard to see that deadline getting extended.

Hi readers, a quick programming note: I will be off on Monday, but this newsletter will be in your inbox like normal in the trusty hands of one of my colleagues.

Now, to log off: I learned about a new sport — “Uppies and Downies,” a sort of medieval proto-rugby with Calvinball characteristics (i.e., no rules) — from this excellent Athletic article, which visits a town in northwestern England where it’s still played. You can read the full piece here with a gift link.

Have a great weekend, and I’ll see you back here on Tuesday!