Three issues that could sink Trump

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Over the weekend, the Justice Department released yet another tranche of files from its investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, the late financier and convicted sex trafficker who paled around with the likes of President Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates.

The documents don’t contain a lot of meaningfully new information. Sordid details, unverified tips, and explicit photos, yes — but nothing that materially changes our understanding of Epstein’s crimes or associates.

The documents are notable for other reasons, though, like the additional light they shed on Epstein’s relationships with a number of very prominent men. And the fact that the DOJ released them at all in response to intense pressure from Trump’s MAGA coalition.

It’s one of several issues where Trump’s core voters appear to be drifting away from him. Don’t call it a backlash quite yet , but the shift is starting to feel significant. Here are three issues that appear to be driving it.

Trump’s relationship to the Epstein case is a long and tangled one. During his 2024 presidential campaign, he promised to release all files associated with the multiple criminal investigations into Epstein and his partner, Ghislaine Maxwell — a priority for a large contingent of right-wing voters. Many believed the files would expose a dark global conspiracy among celebrities and politicians, separate from the many heinous crimes for which Epstein was already tried and convicted.

Once in office, however, Trump released only a handful of the DOJ’s Epstein files and called interest in the case a Democrat-led hoax. Congress then passed bipartisan legislation mandating the release of the remaining unclassified records, which Trump signed more than two months ago.

But the damage was already done. In a recent CNN poll, two-thirds of all US adults — and 42 percent of Republicans — said they believed the federal government was intentionally withholding information.

“It’s the biggest mistake he’s made,” the conservative radio host John Fredericks told my colleague Astead Herndon. “I really don’t know what the hell Pam Bondi is doing in there. ... [The] Epstein files should have been released immediately, whatever’s in there.”

As my colleague Eric Levitz wrote yesterday, immigration represents a major self-own for Trump. He entered office with strong support for his border crackdown. Most Americans now say they disapprove of his approach to immigration.

Those critics include a growing number of Republicans, roughly one-fifth of whom say they’d like to abolish ICE all together. Sarah Longwell, publisher of the center-right news site the Bulwark, said Republicans who voted for border security and criminal deportations have felt rattled by the stories coming out of Minneapolis.

“They did not want bands of masked agents roaming the streets, knocking down doors, waiting outside of schools, holding kids as bait, deporting people who had been here for 20 years and hadn’t broken any other laws,” said Longwell, who runs (and publishes, in podcast form) weekly focus groups with a range of voters.

“There’s a lot of sadness and confusion in the voters,” she added. “It’s not just, do they side with the officers? Do they side with the people who were killed? It’s a lot more like: ‘This is bad. This feels bad. It looks bad. I don’t like it.’”

Even with the masked agents in the streets, however — and even with the waffling around the Epstein documents — Trump’s biggest problem remains the cost of basic goods and services. Trump campaigned on affordability, promising that he would bring down inflation and “make America affordable again.” And in focus groups, voters initially seemed willing to wait for those promises to bear fruit, Longwell said.

As time passes, however, “there is a heavy sense of betrayal from voters,” she added. Six in 10 Americans now say they disapprove of Trump’s handling of cost-of-living issues. A recent New York Times poll found that, even among Republicans, fewer than 10 percent would call the economy “excellent.”

“They elected him for affordability, getting prices down, fixing the economy, getting housing, getting interest rates down, doing the things they need to do to improve their quality of life,” said Fredericks. “That hasn’t come yet. And the window is closing going to the midterms.”