The G7 summit: Trump vs. the world

The annual G7 (Group of Seven) summit kicks off in Quebec on Friday, and the stage is set for a major showdown between the US and its allies.

The leaders of the G7, an informal bloc of some of the world’s most powerful industrialized countries, including Germany, the UK, and Japan, get together every year to discuss collaboration on issues like global security, the international economy, and climate change.

At the end of the summit, they aim to sign a joint statement detailing the policy positions and initiatives they agree on.

But there’s a decent chance that might not happen this year.

That’s because President Donald Trump has so badly rattled the other members with his recent heavy steel and aluminum tariffs and other divisive new policies that it might be impossible for the group to reach a consensus on any substantive issue.

France and Germany have warned Trump that they won’t sign the final agreement unless the US makes some major policy concessions.

A French official told Bloomberg that French President Emmanuel Macron wants to make progress with President Trump on smoothing tensions over trade, the US’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, and climate policy — and if that doesn’t happen, France may refuse to sign.

Alternatively, Macron might end up leading an effort to get every country to exclude the US in a final statement. “The American President may not mind being isolated, but neither do we mind signing a 6 country agreement if need be,” Macron tweeted on Thursday.

Then there’s the fact that Trump himself is reportedly contemplating not signing the joint statement to show that the US is perfectly happy to go its own way if the other members give it too much trouble during talks. The divide has become so stark that staffers and observers of the G7 have started to call it the “G6 plus one.”

“What this G7 is going to show is that the United States are alone against everyone, and especially alone against their allies,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told reporters last week.

The G7 summit, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom, plus the European Union (which is not technically part of the G7 but participates), is typically a pretty straightforward affair.

The official themes for this year’s summit include “investing in growth that works for everyone,” “preparing for the jobs of the future,” and “advancing gender equality.” Against the backdrop of these deliberately anodyne themes, world leaders can hobnob and try to move the ball forward on issues like a new free trade agreement or cooperative climate policy.

But Trump has departed sharply from the G7 consensus on issues like these in the past by, for instance, pulling out of the Paris climate agreement and withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

And White House officials say he is planning to strike a confrontational posture at the summit. “There are disagreements. He’s sticking to his guns, and he’s going to talk, talk to them,” National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told reporters on Wednesday. Trump is also reportedly considering implementing a fresh round of tariffs against Canada — the host of the summit.

European countries could also shun the final statement. Their biggest priority is likely going to be getting Trump to consider some kind of compromise on his recent protectionist trade policies, the most controversial one being his imposition of sweeping tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. Currently, those tariffs hit exports from every other member of the G7.

Trump is also apparently not looking forward to what could be a tense and awkward meeting. According to the Washington Post, Trump has reportedly complained to advisers about having an “uneasy rapport” with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and sees British Prime Minister Theresa May as “too politically correct.”

And Trump has apparently told advisers that he doesn’t want to be “lectured” by other world leaders, especially as he tries to prepare for an upcoming high-stakes summit with North Korea next week.

If the final joint statement for the G7 is missing signatories this weekend when the summit wraps up, it won’t be the end of the world. It’s a symbolic show of unity, not a binding document with concrete policy effects. But it will be yet another sign of how far the US is drifting from many of its most trusted friends in the world.