Pennsylvania special election: Conor Lamb vs. Rick Saccone

Democrat Conor Lamb is officially the next congressman from Pennsylvania after an incredibly close special election in the state’s 18th Congressional District, beating out Republican candidate Rick Saccone in a deeply conservative district the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rated R+11.

Lamb tweeted that Saccone had finally called him to concede, a week after it became clear Lamb had won the election by a few hundred votes. State law does not mandate a recount in district-level elections.

Wednesday was a very good day for Democrats and a catastrophic day for Republicans, as Democrat Conor Lamb narrowly edged out a win over Republican Rick Saccone in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District.

The race stretched into Wednesday midday when CNN said Lamb was in the lead by 627 votes with 100 percent of precincts reporting. State law does not mandate a recount in district-level elections. Unless Republicans can successfully challenge him, that means Lamb just pulled off a stunning upset in a district Democrats hadn’t won in more than 10 years.

The Pennsylvania special election should be a wakeup call for Republicans, but all House Speaker Paul Ryan has is some excuses.

On Tuesday night, Republican House candidate Rick Saccone failed to secure a win in a special election for a Pennsylvania district that went for Donald Trump by 20 points in 2016. The race stretched into Wednesday afternoon, when Democrat Conor Lamb, a 33-year-old former Marine, officially won the race in a stunning upset. Pennsylvania law does not mandate a recount in district-level elections.

Democrat Conor Lamb’s triumph over Republican Rick Saccone in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District made something abundantly clear: The best path to a Democratic House majority runs straight through the Keystone State.

That’s what I learned talking to Nick Field, the former managing editor of PoliticsPA who now writes about state politics for WHYY in Philadelphia and PennLive, the morning after the dramatic Lamb-Saccone race. Lamb performed well with suburban voters in this district near Pittsburgh but also made gains in the blue-collar parts of the district that were swinging toward the GOP. That was the winning formula, Field said.

Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election based on a number of factors — chief among them being his power of personality, particularly among his supporters. And in the White House, Trump’s personal brand has propelled him to an 87 percent approval rating within the GOP, even amid turmoil and chaos taking place both within and without the Oval Office.

The problem for Republicans is that the Trump approach isn’t a replicable model for success. Trump’s scandals are, instead, dragging down the popularity of just about every other figure within the Republican orbit — making it less likely voters would vote for any Republican at all. Republicans in Virginia and Alabama have attempted to take on the Trumpist mantle this year but lost, even in deep-red districts.

Democrat Conor Lamb unquestionably struck some culturally conservative notes — touting his military experience and his support for gun rights while downplaying immigration and racial justice topics — on the way to his victory in Pennsylvania. Under normal circumstances, it would have been a safe Republican district on the outskirts of Pittsburgh.

But a variety of conservative voices, including House Speaker Paul Ryan and Brian Kilmeade, whose status as a Fox & Friends co-host arguably makes an even more influential voice in Republican Party politics, are bending over backward to claim that Lamb is also “pro-life.”

Republican groups essentially lit more than $7 million on fire in Pennsylvania.

In a race that’s still undecided, GOP candidate Rick Saccone fell short in the Pennsylvania House special election, in a district that President Donald Trump won by 20 points.

What’s truly astounding about Democrat Conor Lamb’s performance Tuesday night in a district Donald Trump won by 20 points is that it isn’t novel at all.

Lamb did 20 points better in PA-18 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 and 17 points better than Barack Obama did there back in 2012. That’s impressive. What’s even more impressive is if you look across 20 special elections held so far in 2018, mostly for state legislative seats, and discover that Democrats have done, on average, 24 points better than Clinton and 12 points better than Obama.

Democrat Conor Lamb looks likely to have won an incredibly close special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, beating out Republican candidate Rick Saccone in a deeply conservative district that the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates R+11.

As of midnight Tuesday, official outlets deemed the race too close to call. Though a trickle of absentee election ballots were still to be counted late Tuesday night, some election watchers predicted Lamb would win, albeit by an extremely close margin.

The special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District between Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone is tight. Election watchers are starting to speculate that it may not be called Tuesday night at all and could even be headed for a recount.

As of 10:30 pm Tuesday, the race was still too close to call. Lamb was at 49.8 percent and Saccone was at 49.6 percent, with 98 percent of precincts reporting.

Set aside who actually won the Pennsylvania special House election between Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone — which we might not know for a while yet — and look at the big picture: Republicans are in big, big, big trouble.

Donald Trump won Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District by nearly 20 points. The House special election will be decided by less than a percentage point, in either Lamb or Saccone’s favor (and maybe after a recount?). That is a huge swing toward Democrats.

For the first time in nearly 15 years, Republicans in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District could lose their grip on the seat.

On its face, Tuesday’s special congressional election in the southwest corner of Pennsylvania should be a breeze for the GOP. The Cook Political Report rates the district R+11 (due in part to partisan gerrymandering that the state Supreme Court recently ruled unconstitutional).

Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone face off Tuesday in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. We have the live results below, courtesy of Decision Desk HQ. Polls close at 8 pm ET.

The Pennsylvania district near Pittsburgh is deep-red Trump country: The president won there by 20 points in 2016. Trump showed up there last week to rally support for Saccone, the faltering Republican candidate. But Lamb has pulled into a virtual tie, according to the latest polls, bolstered by his compelling biography (he’s a 33-year-old Marine and former assistant US attorney), some moderate positions on issues like gun control, and a lackluster message and messenger from the GOP.

Republicans said their tax cuts would help them win elections. But what if they can’t even keep a Republican seat in a Trump-loving district?

Tuesday’s special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District is being hailed as a test of the GOP’s messaging — and by all measures, it’s not going well. The race, between state legislator Rick Saccone — a man who calls himself “Trump before Trump was Trump” — and Democrat Conor Lamb, a young, moderate attorney and former Marine, was supposed to be an easy win for Republicans in a district that President Donald Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016.